and that was, you say, right, yes. and that was, you say, more late- -- _ right, yes. and that was, you say, more late... ? _ right, yes. and that was, you say, more late... ? i— right, yes. and that was, you say, more late... ? ithink_ right, yes. and that was, you say, more late... ? i think more - right, yes. and that was, you say, more late... ? i think more late . more late... ? i think more late than mid- _ more late... ? i think more late than mid- on — more late... ? i think more late than mid. on the _ more late... ? i think more late than mid. on the 29th - more late... ? i think more late than mid. on the 29th of - more late... ? i think more late i than mid. on the 29th ofjanuary, cobra, than mid. on the 29th ofjanuary, cobra. you _ than mid. on the 29th ofjanuary, cobra, you weren't, _ than mid. on the 29th ofjanuary, cobra, you weren't, i _ than mid. on the 29th ofjanuary, cobra, you weren't, i think, - than mid. on the 29th ofjanuary, cobra, you weren't, i think, an i cobra, you weren't, ithink, an attendee — cobra, you weren't, ithink, an attendee at— cobra, you weren't, ithink, an attendee at this cobra. if we go to the second — attendee at this cobra. if we go to the second page. a person whose name has been redacted — a person whose name has been redacted attended on behalf of number— redacted attended on behalf of number ten. redacted attended on behalf of numberten. if you redacted attended on behalf of number ten. if you go to page three, we can— number ten. if you go to page three, we can see _ number ten. if you go to page three, we can see a — number ten. if you go to page three, we can see a number of chief medical officer— we can see a number of chief medical officer is_ we can see a number of chief medical officer is dialled in. if you go to page _ officer is dialled in. if you go to page five. — officer is dialled in. if you go to page five, the cm aero and the c50 updated _ page five, the cm aero and the c50 updated the meeting, paragraph three. _ updated the meeting, paragraph three, uk planning assumptions based on the _ three, uk planning assumptions based on the reasonable worst case scenario. _ on the reasonable worst case scenario, there are two scenarios to be considered. the second one, which was that— be considered. the second one, which was that there would be a pandemic

would _ was that there would be a pandemic would he _ was that there would be a pandemic would be plausible but it may take weeks _ would be plausible but it may take weeks to— would be plausible but it may take weeks to months. it obviously didn't take months. when did you begin to realise _ take months. when did you begin to realise that — take months. when did you begin to realise that it would be sooner than had been _ realise that it would be sooner than had been foretold at that 29th of january— had been foretold at that 29th of january meeting of cobra? | had been foretold at that 29th of january meeting of cobra? i think the outbreak _ january meeting of cobra? i think the outbreak in _ january meeting of cobra? i think the outbreak in italy _ january meeting of cobra? i think the outbreak in italy was - january meeting of cobra? i think the outbreak in italy was a - january meeting of cobra? i think the outbreak in italy was a big . the outbreak in italy was a big wake—up call to everyone. the wake-up call to everyone. the last week of february? _ wake-up call to everyone. the last week of february? 21st _ wake-up call to everyone. the last week of february? 21st of- wake-up call to everyone. the last i week of february? 21st of february? around _ week of february? 21st of february? around then. 21st of 22nd. on the 5th of february, _ around then. 21st of 22nd. on the 5th of february, another - around then. 21st of 22nd. on the 5th of february, another cobra . around then. 21st of 22nd. on the i 5th of february, another cobra took place _ 5th of february, another cobra took place it— 5th of february, another cobra took place if we — 5th of february, another cobra took place. if we go to page two, we can see the _ place. if we go to page two, we can see the official attendees. the number— see the official attendees. the number ten, see the official attendees. the numberten, you see the official attendees. the number ten, you attended. correct? yes. ~ , number ten, you attended. correct? yes. . , ., ~ , yes. we can see that the cmo is attended- _ yes. we can see that the cmo is

attended. page _ yes. we can see that the cmo is attended. page five, _ yes. we can see that the cmo is attended. page five, current - attended. page five, current situation— attended. page five, current situation update. more information about— situation update. more information about incubation period, latent period — about incubation period, latent period. paragraph three, an update from the _ period. paragraph three, an update from the minister of state at the foreign — from the minister of state at the foreign... for, the permanent secretary— foreign... for, the permanent secretary for the department of health — secretary for the department of health and social care talks about arrangements for isolation. if you could _ arrangements for isolation. if you could scroll back out please, thank you. could scroll back out please, thank you and _ could scroll back out please, thank you. and then, paragraph six, the chair— you. and then, paragraph six, the chair invites — you. and then, paragraph six, the chair invites the cmo to summarise the latest _ chair invites the cmo to summarise the latest certificate advice on limiting — the latest certificate advice on limiting the transmission of the novel— limiting the transmission of the novel coronavirus into the uk.

numberten number ten understood, therefore, from the _ number ten understood, therefore, from the 5th of february that restrictions on boarders would have to he _ restrictions on boarders would have to he very— restrictions on boarders would have to be very stringent in order to delay— to be very stringent in order to delay the — to be very stringent in order to delay the coronavirus and even then, it could _ delay the coronavirus and even then, it could only— delay the coronavirus and even then, it could only buy a limited amount of tinre _ it could only buy a limited amount of time. correct? numberten it could only buy a limited amount of time. correct? number ten also understood — of time. correct? number ten also understood from as early as the 5th of february, that once the virus breached — of february, that once the virus breached our borders, and couldn't

be controlled by a detection system it would _ be controlled by a detection system it would be rampant to the country? know, _ it would be rampant to the country? know, there's a difference between breaching the borders and community transitions. you could have people visiting from wuhan is different from sustained person—to—person transmission. 50 from sustained person-to-person transmission.— from sustained person-to-person transmission. so what did you find out when you _ transmission. so what did you find out when you asked, _ transmission. so what did you find out when you asked, well, - transmission. so what did you find out when you asked, well, how. transmission. so what did you find i out when you asked, well, how many cases— out when you asked, well, how many cases of— out when you asked, well, how many cases of inbound travellers can we nranage. — cases of inbound travellers can we manage, trace, track or contact to make — manage, trace, track or contact to make sure _ manage, trace, track or contact to make sure it— manage, trace, track or contact to make sure it doesn't get a hold of the community? | make sure it doesn't get a hold of the community?— the community? i don't recall a secific the community? i don't recall a specific discussion. _ the community? i don't recall a specific discussion. you - the community? i don't recall a specific discussion. you were i the community? i don't recall a i specific discussion. you were told, where you — specific discussion. you were told, where you not. — specific discussion. you were told, where you not, in _ specific discussion. you were told, where you not, in late _ specific discussion. you were told, where you not, in late february i specific discussion. you were told, i where you not, in late february that puhlic— where you not, in late february that public health england could only manage — public health england could only manage five coronavirus cases a week with all— manage five coronavirus cases a week with all of— manage five coronavirus cases a week with all of the contacts that those five cases —

with all of the contacts that those five cases would give rise to? it five cases would give rise to? [it could five cases would give rise to? could well five cases would give rise to? it could well have been, yes. five cases would give rise to? it could well have been, yes. so i five cases would give rise to? it i could well have been, yes. so what was our could well have been, yes. so what was your reaction _ could well have been, yes. so what was your reaction when _ could well have been, yes. so what was your reaction when you - could well have been, yes. so what was your reaction when you realise | was your reaction when you realise that you _ was your reaction when you realise that you couldn't stop the virus coming — that you couldn't stop the virus coming in — that you couldn't stop the virus coming in forany that you couldn't stop the virus coming in for any length of time and there _ coming in for any length of time and there were _ coming in for any length of time and there were very, very distinct limits— there were very, very distinct limits on— there were very, very distinct limits on the amount of cases that could _ limits on the amount of cases that could he _ limits on the amount of cases that could be tested, traced, contacted and isolated? | could be tested, traced, contacted and isolated?— and isolated? i think from late february. _ and isolated? i think from late february, increasing _ and isolated? i think from late february, increasing concern i and isolated? i think from late | february, increasing concern as and isolated? i think from late i february, increasing concern as to how the uk would manage this pandemic. how the uk would manage this pandemic-— how the uk would manage this andemic. ~ . ., , ., how the uk would manage this andemic. ~ . ., i] pandemic. what was the solution? i am not the — pandemic. what was the solution? i am not the expert _ pandemic. what was the solution? i am not the expert on _ pandemic. what was the solution? i am not the expert on the _ pandemic. what was the solution? i am not the expert on the solution. l am not the expert on the solution. but i sought to press the system to provide updates on proposals to the prime minister in what they saw the solution to be. fin prime minister in what they saw the solution to be.— solution to be. on the 18th of february. _ solution to be. on the 18th of february, cobra _ solution to be. on the 18th of february, cobra sat - solution to be. on the 18th of february, cobra sat again, i solution to be. on the 18th of i

february, cobra sat again, 56227. page _ february, cobra sat again, 56227. page one. — february, cobra sat again, 56227. page one, we can see the 18th of fehruary— page one, we can see the 18th of february and the ministerial attendees. page two, from numberten ed lester— attendees. page two, from numberten ed lester again and then over the page. _ ed lester again and then over the page, page three, cmo is. page five, paragraph— page, page three, cmo is. page five, paragraph two, the cmo updated on the global risk, the risk to japan was primarily for domestic transition, both escalation to a global— transition, both escalation to a global pandemic isolation of the majority— global pandemic isolation of the majority of cases to remain realistic— majority of cases to remain realistic possibilities. if you could — realistic possibilities. if you could scroll back out, please. i think. — could scroll back out, please. i think. over— could scroll back out, please. i think, overthe page there could scroll back out, please. i think, over the page there are references to planning for legislation. the chair said that

only— legislation. the chair said that only bill— legislation. the chair said that only bill would only be employed in a worst—case scenario. planning for a worst—case scenario. planning for a reasonable — a worst—case scenario. planning for a reasonable worst—case scenario, next _ a reasonable worst—case scenario, next phase, — a reasonable worst—case scenario, next phase, the director said that there _ next phase, the director said that there was— next phase, the director said that there was work to be done to create a clear— there was work to be done to create a clear plan of activity across the uk government from the moment of sustained _ uk government from the moment of sustained transmission to its estimated peak, which was likely to be a estimated peak, which was likely to he a period — estimated peak, which was likely to be a period of three months. a detailed — be a period of three months. a detailed agenda of decisions and actions _ detailed agenda of decisions and actions over a period of time as required — required. presumably, this cobra was required. — presumably, this cobra was reported back to _ presumably, this cobra was reported back to you _ presumably, this cobra was reported back to you as being the private secretary — back to you as being the private secretary in charge of this portfolio in downing street. there were two private _ portfolio in downing street. there were two private sector _ portfolio in downing street. there were two private sector is - portfolio in downing street. yj,, were two private sector is working on this i think the redacted name is the other private secretary. did on this i think the redacted name is the other private secretary.- the other private secretary. did you therefore understand _ the other private secretary. did you therefore understand from - the other private secretary. did you therefore understand from this i

therefore understand from this minute — therefore understand from this minute and the director that as at the 18th _ minute and the director that as at the 18th of— minute and the director that as at the 18th of february, work had yet to he _ the 18th of february, work had yet to he done — the 18th of february, work had yet to be done to create a clear plan of activity. _ to be done to create a clear plan of activity, whatever that means? it�*s activity, whatever that means? it's activity, whatever that means? it's a fair activity, whatever that means? a fair reading activity, whatever that means? it�*s a fair reading of the minute, i think. what... i... i mean, you would have to ask the person who actually said the comment but i suspect what they meant was, some work had been done and a lot more work had been done and a lot more work was yet to be done. mr cummings, as the inquiry is aware called _ cummings, as the inquiry is aware called the — cummings, as the inquiry is aware called the plans to be made, you are aware _ called the plans to be made, you are aware of— called the plans to be made, you are aware of that. in fact, he made repeated — aware of that. in fact, he made repeated requests and it became apparent, — repeated requests and it became apparent, didn't it that there was no clear— apparent, didn't it that there was no clear plan setting out how the government might respond to a viral pandemic— government might respond to a viral pandemic with this characteristics?

i pandemic with this characteristics? iagree _ pandemic with this characteristics? i agree with that. i think, there are two parts to it. there is the strategic plan of, is this something that we can mitigate whilst protecting the nhs or do we need to suppress? and then there is the question of operational plans of do we have enough ppp, do we have enough ventilators? how are we doing a hospital discharges? ithink, on both of those areas the plans could have been more detailed. saying that there is a single plan, there are lots of facets to that. lets there is a single plan, there are lots of facets to that.— there is a single plan, there are lots of facets to that. lets have a look at the _ lots of facets to that. lets have a look at the strategy _ lots of facets to that. lets have a look at the strategy first. - lots of facets to that. lets have a look at the strategy first. in i lots of facets to that. lets have a look at the strategy first. in your| look at the strategy first. in your statement, you say that the initial approach — statement, you say that the initial approach that broad approach envisaged what was called a one peak strategy~ _ envisaged what was called a one peak strate: . , envisaged what was called a one peak strategy. yes. so that we can understand — strategy. yes. so that we can understand what _ strategy. yes. so that we can understand what is _ strategy. yes so that we can understand what is meant by strategy. 19:3 so that we can understand what is meant by this, is this the _

understand what is meant by this, is this the position... ? viruses go in waves, _ this the position... ? viruses go in waves, and — this the position... ? viruses go in waves, and the danger of suppressing a first— waves, and the danger of suppressing a first wave. _ waves, and the danger of suppressing a first wave, pushing it down so that the — a first wave, pushing it down so that the reproduction rate is lower than one. — that the reproduction rate is lower than one. is— that the reproduction rate is lower than one, is to stop exponential growth — than one, is to stop exponential growth is — than one, is to stop exponential growth is that it recoils back up as soon _ growth is that it recoils back up as soon as— growth is that it recoils back up as soon as the — growth is that it recoils back up as soon as the suppression is lifted. correct? — soon as the suppression is lifted. correct? :, : soon as the suppression is lifted. correct?- when _ soon as the suppression is lifted. correct?- when it - soon as the suppression is lifted. correct?- when it does i soon as the suppression is lifted. | correct?- when it does so, correct? correct. when it does so, because you _ correct? correct. when it does so, because you have _ correct? correct. when it does so, because you have suppress - correct? correct. when it does so, because you have suppress the i correct? correct. when it does so, | because you have suppress the first wave, _ because you have suppress the first wave. the _ because you have suppress the first wave, the virus hasn't been able to suppress— wave, the virus hasn't been able to suppress widely and people haven't been affected and therefore they don't _ been affected and therefore they don't have immunity?— been affected and therefore they i don't have immunity?- the don't have immunity? correct. the thinkina don't have immunity? correct. the thinking was _ don't have immunity? correct. the thinking was this, _ don't have immunity? correct. the thinking was this, if— don't have immunity? correct. the thinking was this, if the _ don't have immunity? correct. the thinking was this, if the first i don't have immunity? correct. the thinking was this, if the first wave | thinking was this, if the first wave isiust_ thinking was this, if the first wave isjust reduced rather than is just reduced rather than suppressed, isjust reduced rather than suppressed, so, mitigated, then because— suppressed, so, mitigated, then because the overall size of the first wave _ because the overall size of the first wave of the epidemic is

reduced. _ first wave of the epidemic is reduced, fewer people will become ill or die? _ reduced, fewer people will become ill or die? :, . ., reduced, fewer people will become illordie? :, . ., ., , ill or die? correct. or at any given oint in ill or die? correct. or at any given point in time- _ ill or die? correct. or at any given point in time. by-product - ill or die? correct. or at any given point in time. by-product of i ill or die? correct. or at any given point in time. by-product of that. point in time. by-product of that approach. _ point in time. by-product of that approach. the — point in time. by-product of that approach, the mitigation - point in time. by-product of that i approach, the mitigation approaches because _ approach, the mitigation approaches because you are not suppressing the wave completely, large numbers of the population will become infected. yes. the population will become infected. yes ls _ the population will become infected. yes. , ., ., , the population will become infected. yes. , . . , yes. is that what herd immunity was thouuht to yes. is that what herd immunity was thought to mean? _ yes. is that what herd immunity was thought to mean? i _ yes. is that what herd immunity was thought to mean? i would _ yes. is that what herd immunity was thought to mean? i would add i yes. is that what herd immunity was thought to mean? i would add a i yes. is that what herd immunity was| thought to mean? i would add a final oint to thought to mean? i would add a final point to that — thought to mean? i would add a final point to that which, _ thought to mean? i would add a final point to that which, yes _ thought to mean? i would add a final point to that which, yes to _ thought to mean? i would add a final point to that which, yes to all - thought to mean? i would add a final point to that which, yes to all of i point to that which, yes to all of that and a final point which is, at a certain proportion of the population. i am a certain proportion of the population. lam not a certain proportion of the population. i am not in academia on adjust that this is just my understanding, at a certain point of the population being infected, there are not enough new people for the virus to infect and that is the sort of technical of immunity.- virus to infect and that is the sort of technical of immunity. yes, herd immunity can _ of technical of immunity. yes, herd immunity can either _ of technical of immunity. yes, herd immunity can either take _ of technical of immunity. yes, herd immunity can either take place i of technical of immunity. yes, herd l immunity can either take place when the population is officially vaccinated or it becomes officially infected _ vaccinated or it becomes officially infected that the virus has got nowhere — infected that the virus has got nowhere else to go in terms of infecting — nowhere else to go in terms of infecting new people.-

nowhere else to go in terms of i infecting new people.- and infecting new people. correct. and obviousl , infecting new people. correct. and obviously, there _ infecting new people. correct. and obviously, there is _ infecting new people. correct. and obviously, there is an _ infecting new people. correct. and obviously, there is an issue - infecting new people. correct. and obviously, there is an issue about | obviously, there is an issue about herd _ obviously, there is an issue about herd immunity because herd immunity denotes _ herd immunity because herd immunity denotes that large numbers of people may still— denotes that large numbers of people may still become infected and may die, correct? may still become infected and may die. correct?— die, correct? yes. in one peak strategy. _ die, correct? yes. in one peak strategy. many _ die, correct? yes. in one peak strategy, many people - die, correct? yes. in one peak strategy, many people would. die, correct? yes. in one peak. strategy, many people would die. die, correct? yes. in one peak- strategy, many people would die. and the health care system may still be overrun? _ the health care system may still be overrun? , the health care system may still be overrun?- and _ the health care system may still be overrun? yes. and some people may not aet overrun? 193 and some people may not get immunity may be reinfected? yes, not get immunity may be reinfected? yes. we _ not get immunity may be reinfected? yes, we didn't know what the longevity of immunity was. stand yes, we didn't know what the longevity of immunity was. and the other factors. _ longevity of immunity was. and the other factors, how _ longevity of immunity was. and the other factors, how possibilities i longevity of immunity was. and the other factors, how possibilities to i other factors, how possibilities to seal parts — other factors, how possibilities to seal parts of the population whilst allowing _ seal parts of the population whilst allowing the virus to continue its approach — allowing the virus to continue its approach through the rest. why, did

the government, so number ten, the cabinet _ the government, so number ten, the cabinet office, sage, spend so much time worrying about the strategic issue. _ time worrying about the strategic issue, shall we suppress and risk a spring _ issue, shall we suppress and risk a spring back, — issue, shall we suppress and risk a spring back, and uncoiling of the spring _ spring back, and uncoiling of the spring or— spring back, and uncoiling of the spring or shall we mitigate? as opposed — spring or shall we mitigate? as opposed to asking yourself the question, which ever way you cut it, the loss— question, which ever way you cut it, the loss of— question, which ever way you cut it, the loss of life in illness is going to be _ the loss of life in illness is going to be massive and we must take steps to deal— to be massive and we must take steps to deal with _ to be massive and we must take steps to deal with that? i to be massive and we must take steps to deal with that?— to deal with that? i don't think there was _ to deal with that? i don't think there was a — to deal with that? i don't think there was a proper— to deal with that? i don't think there was a proper discussion | to deal with that? i don't think. there was a proper discussion in february about suppress or mitigate. i think, the system, number ten included, defaulted into accepting that the pandemic flu approach which is more of a mitigating approach rather than a suppress approach was the right way forward. in hindsight,

there should have been advice with different options presented to ministers. on, you can go this way and the cost of benefits are as such, and you can go this way and the costs and benefits are as such. even at a point when lots of things were uncertain, i think, given that some other countries took an alternative approach, it's a reasonable question to ask why we didn't frame the choice in that way to ministers. in didn't frame the choice in that way to ministers-— didn't frame the choice in that way to ministers. in essence, give them ractical to ministers. in essence, give them practical options. — to ministers. in essence, give them practical options, this _ to ministers. in essence, give them practical options, this is _ to ministers. in essence, give them practical options, this is the - practical options, this is the problem. _ practical options, this is the problem, we are going to be overrun. what _ problem, we are going to be overrun. what can— problem, we are going to be overrun. what can be _ problem, we are going to be overrun. what can be done to control it or to regain _ what can be done to control it or to regain control or to deal with the death— regain control or to deal with the death and — regain control or to deal with the death and illness as opposed to this doctrinal— death and illness as opposed to this doctrinal or— death and illness as opposed to this doctrinal or strategic a debate. |

doctrinal or strategic a debate. i don't doctrinal or strategic a debate. don't think doctrinal or strategic a debate. i don't think there was a strategic debate. . ., , : ., , ~ , , debate. there are many whatsapp sa ina, debate. there are many whatsapp saying. have _ debate. there are many whatsapp saying. have we — debate. there are many whatsapp saying, have we won _ debate. there are many whatsapp saying, have we won the _ debate. there are many whatsapp| saying, have we won the argument debate. there are many whatsapp i saying, have we won the argument on herd immunity is it suppress or mitigation?— herd immunity is it suppress or mitiaation? :, ~ , mitigation? from the prime minister. that was in the _ mitigation? from the prime minister. that was in the middle _ mitigation? from the prime minister. that was in the middle of— mitigation? from the prime minister. that was in the middle of march. i i that was in the middle of march. i don't think there was that in february. mr; don't think there was that in february-— don't think there was that in februa . y , . 1' don't think there was that in februa . g , . ,, .,, don't think there was that in februa . g , w ., february. my mistake. there was a debate in march, _ february. my mistake. there was a debate in march, it _ february. my mistake. there was a debate in march, itjust _ february. my mistake. there was a debate in march, it just wasn't i february. my mistake. there was a debate in march, itjust wasn't in l debate in march, itjust wasn't in february — debate in march, it 'ust wasn't in februa . , debate in march, itjust wasn't in february-- why. _ debate in march, itjust wasn't in february. yes. why, when it was lain february. yes. why, when it was plain that — february. yes. why, when it was plain that the — february. yes. why, when it was plain that the viruses _ february. 193 why, when it was plain that the viruses already come to these _ plain that the viruses already come to these shores at the beginning of march, _ to these shores at the beginning of march, was time spent on this doctrinal— march, was time spent on this doctrinal strategic debate which of course _ doctrinal strategic debate which of course culminates in a realisation on the _ course culminates in a realisation on the 13th — course culminates in a realisation on the 13th of march, we are doomed? i on the 13th of march, we are doomed? ithink1_ on the 13th of march, we are doomed? ithink. large _ on the 13th of march, we are doomed? ithink, large parts on the 13th of march, we are doomed? i think, large parts of the system thought that there was no alternative to the current plan in the first week of march. ikla the first week of march. no alternative _ the first week of march. no alternative to... ? kick the current

plan, _ alternative to... ? kick the current plan, the — alternative to... ? kick the current plan, the plan to mitigate. was — plan, the plan to mitigate. was time spent debating reasonable worst—case scenario, mitigation, suppression, herd immunity, behaviour— suppression, herd immunity, behaviour fatigue because governments like plans? they want to be to say. _ governments like plans? they want to be to say, this is our plan, this is our strategy. _ be to say, this is our plan, this is our strategy, this is what we are doing _ our strategy, this is what we are doing l— our strategy, this is what we are doinu. 1' our strategy, this is what we are doinu. ,, ., , , doing. i think that people genuinely thouuht in doing. i think that people genuinely thought in the _ doing. i think that people genuinely thought in the system _ doing. i think that people genuinely thought in the system as _ doing. i think that people genuinely thought in the system as a - doing. i think that people genuinely thought in the system as a whole, i thought in the system as a whole, the department of health and the cabinet office in the first week of march that the plan as published on the 3rd of march was the correct approach. is the 3rd of march was the correct a- roach. , . the 3rd of march was the correct auroach. 1 11 1, the 3rd of march was the correct auroach. , ., :, , ., approach. is that the action plan? yes. approach. is that the action plan? yes- contain. _ approach. is that the action plan? yes. contain, delay? _ approach. is that the action plan? yes. contain, delay? do - approach. is that the action plan? yes. contain, delay? do you i approach. is that the action plan? | yes. contain, delay? do you accept as it happened _ yes. contain, delay? do you accept as it happened that _ yes. contain, delay? do you accept as it happened that control- yes. contain, delay? do you accept as it happened that control had i as it happened that control had already— as it happened that control had already been lost by the 3rd of

march? — already been lost by the 3rd of march? ~ , 1, 1, 1, ~' already been lost by the 3rd of march? ~ , 1, 1,1,~ ., march? when you look at the facts now, es. march? when you look at the facts now. yes- but— march? when you look at the facts now, yes. but that _ march? when you look at the facts now, yes. but that was _ march? when you look at the facts now, yes. but that was just - march? when you look at the facts now, yes. but that wasjust an i now, yes. but that was 'ust an action plan. * now, yes. but that was 'ust an action plan, described i now, yes. but that wasjust an action plan, described by i now, yes. but that wasjust an | action plan, described by some now, yes. but that wasjust an i action plan, described by some of your colleagues as a communication paper— your colleagues as a communication paper saying, this is what we will do, paper saying, this is what we will do. we _ paper saying, this is what we will do. we will— paper saying, this is what we will do, we will control it and if we can't _ do, we will control it and if we can't control it we will delay and if we _ can't control it we will delay and if we can't — can't control it we will delay and if we can't delay it will mitigate the consequences. why was this debate — the consequences. why was this debate about mitigation or suppression still going on? because delay means — suppression still going on? because delay means mitigate. _ suppression still going on? because delay means mitigate. and - suppression still going on? because delay means mitigate. and so, - suppression still going on? because delay means mitigate. and so, the l delay means mitigate. and so, the plan set out on the third was a mitigation plan. and everything in the language is about delaying the suppression and that brings forward and curtails the peak. so, the approach was very much the delay approach was very much the delay approach until it shifted. let approach was very much the delay approach until it shifted.— approach until it shifted. let me ut it approach until it shifted. let me put it bluntly — approach until it shifted. let me put it bluntly to _ approach until it shifted. let me put it bluntly to you, _ approach until it shifted. let me put it bluntly to you, a - approach until it shifted. let me put it bluntly to you, a great - approach until it shifted. let me | put it bluntly to you, a great deal of time _ put it bluntly to you, a great deal of time and energy appears to be devoted — of time and energy appears to be devoted to drawing up the action

plan, _ devoted to drawing up the action plan, talking about delay and mitigation and suppression and in the event, — mitigation and suppression and in the event, behavioural fatigue and herd immunity whilst all the time it was known — herd immunity whilst all the time it was known that the affection vitality — was known that the affection vitality rate was 1%. the hospitalisation rate was 6% and you knew _ hospitalisation rate was 6% and you knew there — hospitalisation rate was 6% and you knew there was no means of controlling the virus points entry to the _ controlling the virus points entry to the united kingdom. why was the focus _ to the united kingdom. why was the focus hot _ to the united kingdom. why was the focus not on that stark reality rather — focus not on that stark reality rather than debating the whys and wherefores of herd immunity? | rather than debating the whys and wherefores of herd immunity? ithink wherefores of herd immunity? i think that is a very — wherefores of herd immunity? i think that is a very good — wherefores of herd immunity? i think that is a very good question - wherefores of herd immunity? i think that is a very good question and - wherefores of herd immunity? i think that is a very good question and i - that is a very good question and i think that is one to put to the senior experts on the pandemic. i think, one of the things that we were missing in the early parts of march was just even a simple, here is the path of the infection and hears the nhs capacity and putting those two lines together. you could say, you should have been out of

work that with a pen and paper when you reflect back, you probably should have.— you reflect back, you probably should have. ., �* ., , should have. you didn't need models to know that — should have. you didn't need models to know that the _ should have. you didn't need models to know that the nhs _ should have. you didn't need models to know that the nhs would - should have. you didn't need models to know that the nhs would be - to know that the nhs would be overrurt — to know that the nhs would be overrun. , �* . , overrun. exactly. but it was only when we just — overrun. exactly. but it was only when we just started _ overrun. exactly. but it was only when we just started to - overrun. exactly. but it was only when we just started to see - overrun. exactly. but it was only when we just started to see howj when we just started to see how stark the gap was between the likely path of the pandemic, even with mitigation and how many beds were available that, i think, it became clear to people in number ten including mejust how clear to people in number ten including me just how unprotected the nhs would be and just how many people would die in the mitigation approach. the people would die in the mitigation a- roach. �* �* people would die in the mitigation a- roach. �* ~ . , approach. the cobra that we 'ust looked at, there i approach. the cobra that we 'ust looked at, there was i approach. the cobra that we 'ust looked at, there was a i approach. the cobra that we 'ust looked at, there was a debateh approach. the cobra that we just i looked at, there was a debate about a draft _ looked at, there was a debate about a draft bill — looked at, there was a debate about a draft bill. fire looked at, there was a debate about a draft bill. �* looked at, there was a debate about a draft bill. . , ., ., ., looked at, there was a debate about a draft bill. . i. ., ., ., . a draft bill. are you moving on to a different--- — a draft bill. are you moving on to a different... 2 — a draft bill. are you moving on to a different... ? yes, _ a draft bill. are you moving on to a different... ? yes, my— a draft bill. are you moving on to a different... ? yes, my lady, - a draft bill. are you moving on to a different... ? yes, my lady, we - a draft bill. are you moving on to a l different... ? yes, my lady, we are. for those — different... ? yes, my lady, we are. for those who _ different... ? yes, my lady, we are. for those who we _ different... ? yes, my lady, we are. for those who we are _ different... ? yes, my lady, we are. for those who we are to _ different... ? yes, my lady, we are. for those who we are to attend - different... ? yes, my lady, we are. for those who we are to attend or . for those who we are to attend or watch _ for those who we are to attend or watch i— for those who we are to attend or watch ithink— for those who we are to attend or watch... i think we _ for those who we are to attend or watch... i think we have - for those who we are to attend or watch... i think we have decided i watch... i think we have decided that we — watch... i think we have decided that we cant— watch... i think we have decided that we can't reach _ watch... i think we have decided that we can't reach him - watch... i think we have decided that we can't reach him today. . watch... i think we have decided . that we can't reach him today. just so everyone — that we can't reach him today. just so everyone knows. _ that we can't reach him today. just so everyone knows.—

that we can't reach him today. just so everyone knows. tomorrow morning? tomorrow morning- — so everyone knows. tomorrow morning? tomorrow morning. sorry _ so everyone knows. tomorrow morning? tomorrow morning. sorry about - so everyone knows. tomorrow morning? tomorrow morning. sorry about this. - tomorrow morning. sorry about this. we have to — tomorrow morning. sorry about this. we have to take _ tomorrow morning. sorry about this. we have to take a _ tomorrow morning. sorry about this. we have to take a break— tomorrow morning. sorry about this. we have to take a break every - we have to take a break every so often _ we have to take a break every so often we — we have to take a break every so often we will— we have to take a break every so often. we will return _ we have to take a break every so often. we will return at - we have to take a break every so often. we will return at 3:30pm.| we have to take a break every so i often. we will return at 3:30pm. so often. we will return at 3:30pm. fl: thatis often. we will return at 3:30pm. that is a covid inquiry taking a break and as you had there it was imran shafi the former private secretary to the prime minister at the time giving evidence and before that we had from martin reynolds who was head of the then prime minister's private office. let's discuss this further with our correspondence. there were some really extraordinary comments made their that came from extracts of whatsapp messages and notebook entries. comments about the prime minister at the time, borisjohnson. describing him as being all over the place, completely inconsistent, describing the government is looking like a tragicjoke. obviously, we must make the point that boris johnson's spokesperson isn't commenting on the evidence today and

mrjohnson will be giving evidence to the inquiry in due course. but some really remarkable comments coming out about the government and the prime minister. yes. coming out about the government and the prime minister.— the prime minister. yes, where'd you want to start. — the prime minister. yes, where'd you want to start. you _ the prime minister. yes, where'd you want to start, you mention _ the prime minister. yes, where'd you want to start, you mention some - the prime minister. yes, where'd you want to start, you mention some of. want to start, you mention some of those that were made by the cabinet secretary, the top civil servant, if you like, about borisjohnson and his indecisiveness. he was flip—flopping, to coin a phrase and he was turning the government, as you say, into a tragicjoke. these are explosive comments made on whatsapp groups and whatsapp messages that were presumably never meant to be in the public domain but as we heard earlier in the hearing today, actually, quite early on, everyone in number ten probably knew that a lot of those comments and whatsapp messages would be seen and would be part of the evidence made. we had those, we had a comment from the chief scientific officer at the time about borisjohnson suggesting

he was weak and indecisive. we also heard about that trip that dominic cummings took back in may of lockdown in which patrick vallance, as we say, the then chief scientific officer basically didn't want to go and do the press conference to the nation that night because he thought it was getting political and unpleasant. i think, it was getting political and unpleasant. ithink, today it was getting political and unpleasant. i think, today getting a good sense of some of the turmoil in number ten at the time. we have had plenty of that over the last few weeks during this hearing and during this module of the covid inquiry. but, yes, plenty more today and i suspect plenty more tomorrow because we were meant to hear from the director of communications were borisjohnson at the time and tomorrow, will also be hearing from dominic cummings. the prime minister's then chief of staff. it could be even more explosive tomorrow. this could be even more explosive tomorrow— could be even more explosive tomorrow. a ., , ., tomorrow. as you say, where does one start. tomorrow. as you say, where does one start- there — tomorrow. as you say, where does one start- there is— tomorrow. as you say, where does one start. there is so _ tomorrow. as you say, where does one start. there is so much _ tomorrow. as you say, where does one

start. there is so much to _ tomorrow. as you say, where does one start. there is so much to pore - start. there is so much to pore over. one of the things as well that stands out. the people who are just joining us now and watching, to reiterate who martin reynolds was and his responsibility for the e—mail that was sent out about byob party invitations in the downing street party in lockdowns. he made an unreserved apology, didn't he? he: did. he and that unfortunate nickname party marty because of that e—mail he sent out. i think that was may of 2020 which was a couple of months into lockdown where he invited more than 100 downing st staff to byob booze party in the garden. staff showed up and they were given tables of booze and sausage rolls and damages. that was a time when the rest of us were subject to strict lockdown rules, we

were only allowed to meet one person from another household if we were meeting outside and you could go to work and do nothing else. that didn't come out for another year, we didn't come out for another year, we didn't hear that that had happened. but obviously, incredibly damaging to the government and downing street and obviously led to and set off a course of events that eventually led to boris johnson's course of events that eventually led to borisjohnson's own downfall with this whole argument about partygate about whether those in charge at number ten were paying attention to the rules, their own rules that they had set. so, yes, really important moment and as you say, unreserved apology from martin reynolds where he said he was terribly sorry for everything he done and conceded that it was a terrible thing to do. other important things that we have had today, well, there has also been stripped back through number ten and exactly how things were working. martin reynolds conceded, if you like, that the machine of government

wasn't working very well and that the cabinet office, the department, if you like that was tasked with drawing all the other government departments together, the machine didn't work and wasn't prepared for the pandemic. we also got a sense of how decisions are being made or at least being discussed, there was a lot of talk about whatsapp groups, we have had plenty of that in the last few months about whatsapp messages. but we heard today that one of the whatsapp groups that included the pm and was called pm updates at the function you can use on it when those messages disappeared. so a lot of those messages that were sent at the time disappeared seven days later. that is my colleague — disappeared seven days later. that is my colleague kelly price our correspondence now. just to emphasise that is not about finding anyone guilty or innocent, the inquiry is about learning lessons and there will be more on this tomorrow. but for now it's time for a look at the weather forecast with matt taylor.

the weather shows little sign of calming down in fact quite the reverse. a named storm, storm ciaran, named by the met office, likely to affect the uk through wednesday night into thursday. the risk of damaging winds, particularly in the south, but also widespread, unwanted heavy rain. but in the shorter term, a met office amber warning has been issued for southeastern parts of northern ireland. rain overnight and into the first part of tomorrow could well cause further flooding and disruption. part of tomorrow could well cause parts of northern ireland through the rest of today. some patches of rain across parts of northern england. quite a few showers across wales, the south west, some heavier rain into south east england. a lot of scotland will be dry, just the odd shower up towards the north. and then as we head through this evening and tonight, well, that rain really sets in across southern parts of northern ireland with that risk of flooding. some outbreaks of showery rain elsewhere. largely clear skies, though, across scotland, and in the highlands some spots will drop to freezing or a touch below.

contrast that with nine or ten degrees in the south west of england and the channel islands. for tomorrow, one band of cloud and showery rain across northern ireland, parts of northern england, into east anglia. to the south of that, a slice of sunshine, just one or two showers and then a band of heavy rain works back into the south west of england later in the day. all the while, scotland largely dry, temperatures of 8 to 15 degrees. through tuesday night into wednesday this frontal system will push its way northwards and eastwards. this one is going to bring some heavy rain, perhaps some snow for a time, over high ground in northern scotland, but only briefly. it will turn windy around some western coasts and also in the north of scotland. temperatures north to south, generally between eight and ia degrees. and then, as we move through wednesday night into thursday, it's this deep area of low pressure that brings cause for concern. this is storm ciaran. still some uncertainty about the exact track of this low, but many areas are going to see heavy rain bringing the renewed

threat of flooding, and it is going to be windy. at this stage it looks like the strongest winds will be in south wales and southern england. inland spots could see gusts of 50 to maybe 60 miles per hour. but some southern coast of england and more especially the channel islands, could see wind gusts of 80 to possibly 90 miles per hour.

this is bbc news, the headlines... hamas has released a video appearing to show three israeli women being held hostage. israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu has described the footage as "cruel psychological propaganda", and said his government was doing it all it could to bring hostages home. the israeli army says it's expanding its operations in the gaza strip with more infantry, artillery and armoured vehicles entering the territory. israel says it hit 600 military targets in 2a hours and killed dozens of hamas fighters. the un agency for palestinian refugees says "hundreds" of patients are stuck in hospitals in northern gaza. doctors say israel told staff to evacuate al-quds hospital in gaza city on sunday, but that moving patients — many of whom are in intensive care — is impossible. (pres)

let's start once again with that breaking news —