aftermath of the storms that can cause lots and lots of problems, a long—tail, if you write, even after the storm itself has passed through. thank you, duncan kennedy in hastings. we can go straight now to the bank of england where they are giving a press conference on that decision on interest rates. we are doinu decision on interest rates. we are doing today _ decision on interest rates. we are doing today by — decision on interest rates. we are doing today by the _ decision on interest rates. we are doing today by the deputy - decision on interest rates. we are l doing today by the deputy governor for monetary policy, deputy governor markets _ for monetary policy, deputy governor markets and banking is in the governor, _ markets and banking is in the governor, andrew bailey. andrew will become _ governor, andrew bailey. andrew will become of— governor, andrew bailey. andrew will become of their opening remarks and then we _ become of their opening remarks and then we will have some questions. thank_ then we will have some questions. thank you. — then we will have some questions. thank you, let me add my welcome and say thank you for coming in in the storm today. inflation is falling and expected to keep following this year and next. increases in interest rates working to bring inflation back to the 2% target. so today we

have voted to maintain bank rates at 5.25%. monetary policy remains restrictive. let me be clear, there is absolutely no room for complacency. inflation is still too high. we will keep interest rates high. we will keep interest rates high enough for long enough to make sure we get inflation all the way back to the 2% target. we will be watching closely to see if further increases are needed but even if they are not it is much too early to think about rate cuts. i'm going to talk about inflation over the coming months and that i will turn to the outlook for the economy further ahead. and means for monetary policy. to start with the near—term outlook for inflation. chart one from the report shows consumer price inflation and its components since 2019. it shows how inflation has

continued to fall since the previous report in august. watch as we expected. inflation took a step down in the data forjuly published two weeks after the august report. as you can see in our near—term petition shown in the shaded area, we expect inflation to take another, larger step—down in october's data, when it is published in two time. from 6.7% in september we think it will probably fall to just below 5%. within expected to remain around that level for the rest of the year. —— but we then expected. the dark orange bars show this fall is driven in large part by energy prices were gradually falling inflation for food and other goods will help too. as shown by the narrowing purple and blue bars. ofgem's a price cap means we can be confident about the contribution from household energy bills to lower inflation over the

coming months. but any projection is uncertain. there are upside risks to inflation from energy prices following the tragic events in the middle east. and there remains uncertainty about the time it will take other non—energy components of inflation to come down as well. chart two shows the evolution of our near—term inflation projections and compares them with the out—turn is of the data. the blue line is actual inflation, the stalks are the near—term forecasts from successive monetary policy reports in different colours from november last year. as you can see, the data has come in line our near—term projections over the last year. in the past few months inflation out—turn suck in the past few months inflation out—turn succumb in somewhat lower than we expected. we now protect inflation to be a little lower over the remainder of the year than we did in august. most of the downside nuisances orchestra fights lower

core price inflation per division has come down a little fatter than we expected. while services inflation is also slightly lower than we expected in august, it remains elevated and it now contributes more to overall inflation than the prices of energy, food and other goods. it's important that services inflation fall steadily over the next year, to achieve that we need to see an easing of underlying cost pressures in the economy. so this brings me to the medium—term outlook. in the face of the series of significant economic shocks that have hit us in recent years, overall demand in the economy has proved resilient, supported by a very tight labour market. but there are increasing signs that higher interest rates are weighing on economic activity and we see that in weaker official activity data in a range of business surveys.

as we described in some detail in today's report, the monetary policy committee always takes a collective steer from a wide range of indicators to inform its view of labour market developments. the overall message from these indicators is that while it remains tight in a historical context of the labour market has loosened and by little more than projected in august. chart three shows how most indicators of up and growth are now easing. this includes the purchasing managers index for composite employment intentions, the permanent staff placement index which is in dark orange. the official measure in purple is all weakening. but this last series can be volatile and there are increased uncertainty surrounded following the suspension of the labour force survey. to inform the assessment, bank staff feed all these indicators into a

model to estimate a measure of underlying employment growth. this is a long—standing practice but the challenges with the official data reaffirmed the importance of taking such steers from quite a wide range of data sources. the model —based estimate has shown in chart four in blue. the official data is in orange. as you can see, the estimated measure of employment growth has gradually slowed since 2021. the indicator —based model suggests implement will be broadly flat over the second half of this year. there are other signs the labour market is listening, the number of vacancies is falling and unemployment has gone up. despite the suffering in the labour market, nominal wage growth remains much higher than would be consistent with the inflation target if sustained at these rates. the ons measure of

annual growth in regular average weekly earnings in the private sector was 8.0% in august. higher—than—expected. the continued strength in which growth has persuaded the mpc to raise a slightly its assessment of the medium—term equilibria rate of an apartment and its estimate of persistence in wage and price inflation. in effect the mpcjudges that the weakening in the labour market has been driven in part by a lower supply of labour, notjust lower supply of labour, not just demand. lower supply of labour, notjust demand. this would help to explain the continued strength in pay growth even as employment growth has eased. while all measures of current pay growth remain elevated, the recent pick—up in the official measure of private sector wages has not been matched by other indicators. this is illustrated in chart five.

theindeed the indeed which struck in purple points to which growth goes to 7%. below the official data in blue. the bank's agents continue to report the average annual pay settlements have beenin average annual pay settlements have been in the region of 6% to 6.5%. that is by the mpc will continue to monitor all available data on pay growth very carefully. we could demand a labour market are signs that monetary policy is restrictive. —— weaker demand. the effect of higher interest rates continue to weigh on economic activity throughout the focus represented today. chart six shows the mpc plasma projection for growth in the uk economy conditional on market interest rates. gdp is projected to remain broadly flat through 2024 stop growth and recovers the second half of the forecast period. but it remains below historical averages.

reflecting both restrictive monetary policy and subdued potential supply growth. 0n growth. on balance, the budget of excess demand is diminished over recent quarters. we increase our increase increase —— are we expect increased slack from next. this will reduce pressures on the economy alongside external cost pressures. chart seven shows the implications for consumer price inflation. in the central projection, which is conditional on the market path of interest rates, inflation is more likely to end below the 2% target than above it. albeit only slightly. in the model almost like a case, inflation is 1.9% in two years' time, then focused at 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026. the committee continues tojudge, however, the

risks around that central case how skewed towards higher inflation. adjusting the modal projection for the balance of risk, the mean expected path for inflation is just above the 2% target in two years' time are just below it towards the end of the three year forecast period. the mpc�*s alternative production content shouldn't honour of the far rate at 5.25% has cpi inflation somewhat lower than the conditional on the market path, especially towards the end of the forecast period. in the mean forecast, inflation is expected to be right at the 2% target in two years' time rather than slightly above it. it then falling to 1.6% rather than 1.9% at the end of the forecast period. this is because the market path begins to decline gradually from the current level of bank rate towards the end of next year, so the constant path is above the market path in the final two years of the

forecast. monetary policy is currently restrictive in the sense that if we maintain this stance for long enough we will squeeze inflation out of the system. that's what we will do. it also means being on watch forfurther what we will do. it also means being on watch for further signs of inflation persistent that may require rates to rise again. but we should not keep monetary policy restrictive for excessively long. we have to be mindful of the balance of risk of —— between doing too little and doing too much. how long a restrictive stance will be needed will ultimately depend on what the incoming data tell us about the outlook for inflation over the medium term. the mpc�*s latest projections indicate monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for quite some time yet. on returning fish to the 2% target remains an absolute priority. with that, we will be happy to take questions. that, we will be happy to take questione— that, we will be happy to take cuestions. ,, , questions. usual process, please,

one question _ questions. usual process, please, one question each _ questions. usual process, please, one question each and _ questions. usual process, please, one question each and let - questions. usual process, please, one question each and let me - questions. usual process, please, | one question each and let me know where _ one question each and let me know where you're from when you get the microphone. we will start with faisai— microphone. we will start with faisal and _ microphone. we will start with faisal and then go to sam. puzzle islam, bbc's. you are just about_ puzzle islam, bbc's. you are just about not— puzzle islam, bbc's. you are just about not predicting _ puzzle islam, bbc's. you are just about not predicting a _ puzzle islam, bbc's. you are just about not predicting a recession. puzzle islam, bbc's. you are just i about not predicting a recession but stagnation — about not predicting a recession but stagnation for — about not predicting a recession but stagnation for a _ about not predicting a recession but stagnation for a year, _ about not predicting a recession but stagnation for a year, year - about not predicting a recession but stagnation for a year, year and - about not predicting a recession but stagnation for a year, year and a . stagnation for a year, year and a half or— stagnation for a year, year and a half or so— stagnation for a year, year and a half or so if— stagnation for a year, year and a half or so if there _ stagnation for a year, year and a half or so if there was _ stagnation for a year, year and a half or so if there was a - stagnation for a year, year and a | half or so if there was a recession would _ half or so if there was a recession would it— half or so if there was a recession would it change _ half or so if there was a recession would it change your _ half or so if there was a recession would it change your view - half or so if there was a recession would it change your view that. half or so if there was a recession . would it change your view that rates should _ would it change your view that rates should stay— would it change your view that rates should stay roughly _ would it change your view that rates should stay roughly where - would it change your view that rates should stay roughly where they- would it change your view that rates| should stay roughly where they are? i should stay roughly where they are? i must _ should stay roughly where they are? i must be _ should stay roughly where they are? i must be very— should stay roughly where they are? i must be very clear, _ should stay roughly where they are? i must be very clear, our— should stay roughly where they are? i must be very clear, our objective . i must be very clear, our objective is price stability and that is defined as the inflation target so thatis defined as the inflation target so that is our objective. we don't set out to project growth one way or the other. you are right that it is subdued. we see the evidence that monetary policy and the rate rises we have done are now having an effect, they are restrictive and we think that is coming through in the profile of growth. and we are still

at 6.7% in terms of inflation, so there is a considerable way to go. we are determined to take it all the way back to target, there must be no doubt about that. so that is what conditions there are for growth. do you want to come in? i conditions there are for growth. do you want to come in?— conditions there are for growth. do you want to come in? i think having this very rigid _ you want to come in? i think having this very rigid definition _ you want to come in? i think having this very rigid definition of- you want to come in? i think having this very rigid definition of what - this very rigid definition of what is a recession and what isn't is a bit odd. a continuum of outcome, whether or not it happens to be fractionally negative are fractionally negative are fractionally positive will not have a bearing on monetary policy. as andrew says, our focus a bearing on monetary policy. as andrew says, ourfocus is inflation. the outcome for growth might have some impact on that but i think it's not as if zero is some crucial threshold. obviously you are at pains to stress the continued — obviously you are at pains to stress the continued willingness _ obviously you are at pains to stress the continued willingness of - obviously you are at pains to stress the continued willingness of the - obviously you are at pains to stress. the continued willingness of the mpc to lift rates _ the continued willingness of the mpc to lift rates again _ the continued willingness of the mpc to lift rates again but _ the continued willingness of the mpc to lift rates again but it _ the continued willingness of the mpc to lift rates again but it seems- to lift rates again but it seems jarring — to lift rates again but it seems jarring when _ to lift rates again but it seems

jarring when set _ to lift rates again but it seems jarring when set against - to lift rates again but it seems jarring when set against the l jarring when set against the increasingly _ jarring when set against the increasingly downbeat - jarring when set against the . increasingly downbeat outlook jarring when set against the - increasingly downbeat outlook for economic — increasingly downbeat outlook for economic activity, _ increasingly downbeat outlook for economic activity, softening - increasingly downbeat outlook for. economic activity, softening labour market _ economic activity, softening labour market and — economic activity, softening labour market and increasing _ economic activity, softening labour market and increasing slack- economic activity, softening labour market and increasing slack in - economic activity, softening labour market and increasing slack in thel market and increasing slack in the new year — market and increasing slack in the new year. there's _ market and increasing slack in the new year. there's not _ market and increasing slack in the new year. there's not much - market and increasing slack in thej new year. there's not much more likely— new year. there's not much more likely that — new year. there's not much more likely that the _ new year. there's not much more likely that the next _ new year. there's not much more likely that the next move - new year. there's not much more likely that the next move will- new year. there's not much more likely that the next move will be l likely that the next move will be down _ likely that the next move will be down rather _ likely that the next move will be down rather than _ likely that the next move will be down rather than up, _ likely that the next move will be down rather than up, what - likely that the next move will be down rather than up, what kindl likely that the next move will be i down rather than up, what kind of conditions — down rather than up, what kind of conditions would _ down rather than up, what kind of conditions would need _ down rather than up, what kind of conditions would need to - down rather than up, what kind of conditions would need to see - conditions would need to see specifically— conditions would need to see specifically in— conditions would need to see specifically in order- conditions would need to see specifically in order to - conditions would need to see specifically in order to meritl conditions would need to see | specifically in order to merit a downward _ specifically in order to merit a downward move _ specifically in order to merit a downward move in— specifically in order to merit a downward move in interest i specifically in order to merit a - downward move in interest rates? we have downward move in interest rates? have actually come as we have set out in the bar, assessed the risk to inflation remains in our view on the upside, so in a sense that conditioned our view of the path of rights. i think there are a number of things that underlie that judgment on the risk although we take it at the top down level, we don't build it up from below. are we to focus quite a lot on what the story is a lie that and i would point to two, one of which is continuing, which is tightness of the labour market, the evidence we see on pay, the evidence as you saw the charter and services inflation,

these are the indicators we've been point do for some time and although i did point to some of the puzzle surrounded by data i was still so much of a number you take from that roar, it's still inconsistent with meeting the inflation target. the second thing i would say, i really have to say that obviously the events in the middle east are tragic in terms of the human cost. we have to view it through the economic lens, it does create uncertainty, it does create risk of higher energy prices. so far i would say that hasn't happened and that is always encouraging but the risk remains. in terms of your second part of your question on what it takes, i would point to get to the message i made a number of times, it's a very important one, which is we have got to see inflation coming down to target, no question. we have made very good progress. as i pointed

out, i think it was quite a bit more to come this year but we have to see it go back down towards 2%. if i could make one point to add to that, io could make one point to add to that, go track— could make one point to add to that, go back to _ could make one point to add to that, go back to the first chart that andrew— go back to the first chart that andrew put the contributions to inflation. — andrew put the contributions to inflation, you can see now that the major— inflation, you can see now that the major contribution to inflation now and in _ major contribution to inflation now and in the — major contribution to inflation now and in the coming months is from services _ and in the coming months is from services inflation, and that reinforces our concerns around the persistence — reinforces our concerns around the persistence of inflation, we do think— persistence of inflation, we do think that _ persistence of inflation, we do think that will start to come off next _ think that will start to come off next year. _ think that will start to come off next year, but that has been a very sticky— next year, but that has been a very sticky element in inflation through this year — sticky element in inflation through this year. hints of where our bias still lies— this year. hints of where our bias still lies in— this year. hints of where our bias still lies in terms of the next rate move _ still lies in terms of the next rate move come — still lies in terms of the next rate move come from. hello. given the small discrepancy of the _ hello. given the small discrepancy of the inflation _ hello. given the small discrepancy of the inflation path _ hello. given the small discrepancy of the inflation path between - hello. given the small discrepancy of the inflation path between whatj of the inflation path between what is the _ of the inflation path between what is the market— of the inflation path between what

is the market rate _ of the inflation path between what is the market rate and _ of the inflation path between what is the market rate and the - of the inflation path between whatl is the market rate and the constant rate, _ is the market rate and the constant rate. it's _ is the market rate and the constant rate. it's your— is the market rate and the constant rate, it's your message _ is the market rate and the constant rate, it's your message essentiallyl rate, it's your message essentially that you _ rate, it's your message essentially that you see — rate, it's your message essentially that you see no— rate, it's your message essentially that you see no reason— rate, it's your message essentially that you see no reason to - rate, it's your message essentially that you see no reason to cut - that you see no reason to cut interest — that you see no reason to cut interest rates _ that you see no reason to cut interest rates in— that you see no reason to cut interest rates in 2024, - that you see no reason to cut interest rates in 2024, given| interest rates in 2024, given the path _ interest rates in 2024, given the path of— interest rates in 2024, given the path of inflation? _ interest rates in 2024, given the path of inflation? the _ interest rates in 2024, given the path of inflation?— interest rates in 2024, given the path of inflation? the message is that we are _ path of inflation? the message is that we are going _ path of inflation? the message is that we are going to _ path of inflation? the message is that we are going to have - path of inflation? the message is that we are going to have to - that we are going to have to maintain policy in a restrictive stance as it is in order to see this get all the way back down to target. i think it's helpful to use but the market right path and the constant rate path to inner sense illustrate where we think they lead to in terms of inflation target. they do both lead back to target, let's be clear. there are some slight differences in terms of timing but they both lead back to target. but ijust terms of timing but they both lead back to target. but i just want to emphasise again, we are going to have to maintain restrictive policy in order to get back to target, to take us back there and we have to travel a little more distance yet. i don't think there's any particular message that we are trying to send to the financial markets. the

differences in the forecast are not huge. the focus conditions on constant rate dipped slightly below target. given everything else we had in the forecast, equally, the market path, and hundredm are brexiter when it is, three orfour path, and hundredm are brexiter when it is, three or four months of nature, inflation is still marginally above target. i don't think there is any particular message we're trying to send that and indeed, just checking my e—mails, nothing much has happened since we published this forecast. the main message as andrew says, is borderline, we think policy is to remain restrictive for quite some time. if remain restrictive for quite some time. . . remain restrictive for quite some time. , , ., , ., , time. if it helps to illustrate, use the day window _

time. if it helps to illustrate, use the day window averaging - time. if it helps to illustrate, use the day window averaging for - time. if it helps to illustrate, use the day window averaging for the market rate. if you take that window that we used to calculate the average market rate over the next three years and you compare it with the constant rate, it's about 0.25% higher. ed the constant rate, it's about 0.25% hiaher. ., ., the constant rate, it's about 0.25% hiaher. ., ._ ., the constant rate, it's about 0.2596 hiaher. ., ., , higher. ed conway from sky news. just higher. ed conway from sky news. just looking _ higher. ed conway from sky news. just looking at _ higher. ed conway from sky news. just looking at your _ higher. ed conway from sky news. just looking at your forecast, - higher. ed conway from sky news. just looking at your forecast, it's i just looking at your forecast, it's trasically— just looking at your forecast, it's basically flat _ just looking at your forecast, it's basically flat in _ just looking at your forecast, it's basically flat in terms _ just looking at your forecast, it's basically flat in terms of- just looking at your forecast, it's i basically flat in terms of economic growth. _ basically flat in terms of economic growth, certainly— basically flat in terms of economic growth, certainly very— basically flat in terms of economic growth, certainly very weak, - basically flat in terms of economic i growth, certainly very weak, maybe not recession— growth, certainly very weak, maybe not recession but— growth, certainly very weak, maybe not recession but maybe _ growth, certainly very weak, maybe not recession but maybe for- not recession but maybe for learning _ not recession but maybe for learning. quite _ not recession but maybe for learning. quite a _ not recession but maybe for learning. quite a lot- not recession but maybe for learning. quite a lot of- not recession but maybe for learning. quite a lot of pain| not recession but maybe for- learning. quite a lot of pain being felt at _ learning. quite a lot of pain being felt at thereby— learning. quite a lot of pain being felt at thereby households - learning. quite a lot of pain being felt at thereby households are - felt at thereby households are around — felt at thereby households are around the _ felt at thereby households are around the country. _ felt at thereby households are around the country. can - felt at thereby households are around the country. can you . felt at thereby households are i around the country. can you say felt at thereby households are - around the country. can you say how much _ around the country. can you say how much of _ around the country. can you say how much of that — around the country. can you say how much of that pain is _ around the country. can you say how much of that pain is down _ around the country. can you say how much of that pain is down to - around the country. can you say how much of that pain is down to what i much of that pain is down to what the bank— much of that pain is down to what the bank has _ much of that pain is down to what the bank has done, _ much of that pain is down to what the bank has done, don't - much of that pain is down to what the bank has done, don't interest| the bank has done, don't interest rate policy? — the bank has done, don't interest rate policy? and _ the bank has done, don't interest rate policy? and would _ the bank has done, don't interest rate policy? and would you - the bank has done, don't interest rate policy? and would you say. the bank has done, don't interest. rate policy? and would you say that pain is _ rate policy? and would you say that pain is the — rate policy? and would you say that pain is the price _ rate policy? and would you say that pain is the price worth— rate policy? and would you say that pain is the price worth paying - rate policy? and would you say that pain is the price worth paying to- pain is the price worth paying to bring _ pain is the price worth paying to bring inflation _ pain is the price worth paying to bring inflation down? _ pain is the price worth paying to bring inflation down?— pain is the price worth paying to bring inflation down? there's a lot of history to _ bring inflation down? there's a lot of history to the _ bring inflation down? there's a lot of history to the price _ bring inflation down? there's a lot of history to the price worth - bring inflation down? there's a lot| of history to the price worth paying comment and i'm not going tojoin the history. i don't think that is to use.

asi as i said, i will say it again, while inflation hurts the least well of the hardest. when it is concentrated in energy and food the essentials of life are even harder and it's critical that we bring inflation down. i think we are seeing encouraging process but we have to see this through. that's what underlies it. a couple of things on the growth projection. yes, i do think this projection reflects the fact that policy is restrictive, it's one of the things we have spent quite a lot of time discussing as a committee and we do see the evidence to support that. the second thing is that, but inflation and price stability, achieving price stability and maintaining it is the best platform

particularly for sustained growth on the supply side of the economy to encourage investment and is clearly what is important. fine encourage investment and is clearly what is important.— what is important. one thing that comes across _ what is important. one thing that comes across from _ what is important. one thing that comes across from these - what is important. one thing that. comes across from these forecasts and in particularfrom the change is that we've taken a more pessimistic view of the supply side of the economy. that's partly because of what we've seen on the nominal side, you know, through the year we have inferred from actual productivity growth and actual gdp growth but still stubborn inflation that at least for the time being effective supply growth isn't that strong and i think this projection is for actual growth next year should be seenin actual growth next year should be seen in that context.— seen in that context. governor, millions of _ seen in that context. governor, millions of our _ seen in that context. governor, millions of our viewers - seen in that context. governor, millions of our viewers have - millions of our viewers have mortgage _ millions of our viewers have mortgage bills— millions of our viewers have mortgage bills that - millions of our viewers have mortgage bills that they. millions of our viewers have i mortgage bills that they need millions of our viewers have - mortgage bills that they need to p5y~

mortgage bills that they need to pay. when— mortgage bills that they need to pay. when you _ mortgage bills that they need to pay. when you say— mortgage bills that they need to pay. when you say that - mortgage bills that they need to pay. when you say that interestl pay. when you say that interest rates _ pay. when you say that interest rates are — pay. when you say that interest rates are restrictive _ pay. when you say that interest rates are restrictive and - pay. when you say that interest rates are restrictive and are - rates are restrictive and are likely to be _ rates are restrictive and are likely to be for— rates are restrictive and are likely to be for quite _ rates are restrictive and are likely to be for quite some _ rates are restrictive and are likely to be for quite some time - rates are restrictive and are likely to be for quite some time to- rates are restrictive and are likely. to be for quite some time to come, inevitably— to be for quite some time to come, inevitably people _ to be for quite some time to come, inevitably people are _ to be for quite some time to come, inevitably people are going - to be for quite some time to come, inevitably people are going to - to be for quite some time to come, inevitably people are going to be i inevitably people are going to be worried — inevitably people are going to be worried about _ inevitably people are going to be worried about that. _ inevitably people are going to be worried about that. how - inevitably people are going to be . worried about that. how restrictive our interest — worried about that. how restrictive our interest rates? _ worried about that. how restrictive our interest rates? where - worried about that. how restrictive our interest rates? where is- worried about that. how restrictive i our interest rates? where is nutro? put another— our interest rates? where is nutro? put another way. _ our interest rates? where is nutro? put another way, when _ our interest rates? where is nutro? put another way, when these - put another way, when these temporary— put another way, when these temporary shocks _ put another way, when these temporary shocks are - put another way, when these temporary shocks are finallyl put another way, when these - temporary shocks are finally over, where _ temporary shocks are finally over, where our — temporary shocks are finally over, where our interest _ temporary shocks are finally over, where our interest rates _ temporary shocks are finally over, where our interest rates are - temporary shocks are finally over, where our interest rates are likely| where our interest rates are likely to settle? — where our interest rates are likely to settle? and _ where our interest rates are likely to settle? and if— where our interest rates are likely to settle? and if you _ where our interest rates are likely to settle? and if you want - where our interest rates are likely to settle? and if you want to - where our interest rates are likely to settle? and if you want to give| where our interest rates are likely. to settle? and if you want to give a that's _ to settle? and if you want to give a that's fine — to settle? and if you want to give a that's fine -- _ to settle? and if you want to give a that's fine. to settle? and if you want to give a that's fine-— that's fine. -- might give a range. that's a version _ that's fine. -- might give a range. that's a version of— that's fine. -- might give a range. that's a version of the _ that's fine. -- might give a range. that's a version of the question i that's a version of the question asked of the last press conference! but i will have a go. it's a reasonable question. i'm sure ben will be delighted to join reasonable question. i'm sure ben will be delighted tojoin in. let me say a couple of things. as a committee, we don't spend time discussing what we think the aquabloom interest rate will be because it is too uncertain a concept. —— equilibrium interest rate. it is true that it sort of underpins the system but i don't

think it is a helpful way to go about it pot studio: let's just leave that bank of england briefing. you're watching bbc news. we have been watching the bank of england governor andrew bailey giving a briefing on the interest rates announcementjust to pick up some key points, the interest rates were held at 5.25% earlier, that's the main headline point. is the second time in a row that the bank has decided to keep the rate the same, that follows 14 consecutive rises since the end of 2021. so that's the key figure that's come out by the interest rates. the bank of england also said an announcement it it brecks a sharp slowdown in inflation but i did also say it has lowered its forecasts for the uk economy and expects nearly zero growth from now across the whole of next year and into 2025.

here's the shadow chancellor rachel reeves. interest rate hikes have been paused today— interest rate hikes have been paused today but _ interest rate hikes have been paused today but they remain at a historic high _ today but they remain at a historic high for— today but they remain at a historic high. forthe today but they remain at a historic high. for the 1.5 million people looking — high. for the 1.5 million people looking to _ high. for the 1.5 million people looking to refinance their mortgages next year. _ looking to refinance their mortgages next year, that will mean an average an additional £220 every single month — an additional £220 every single month. so an additional £220 every single month. . an additional £220 every single month. , ., , ., , month. so interest rates are staying where they are- _ month. so interest rates are staying where they are. growth _ month. so interest rates are staying where they are. growth looking - month. so interest rates are staying where they are. growth looking like | where they are. growth looking like it's not going any higher. that's not looking good for the general election, is it, how are you going to grow the economy? the election, is it, how are you going to grow the economy?— election, is it, how are you going to grow the economy? the bank of encland to grow the economy? the bank of england have _ to grow the economy? the bank of england have revised _ to grow the economy? the bank of england have revised down - to grow the economy? the bank of england have revised down from i to grow the economy? the bank of. england have revised down from low growth _ england have revised down from low growth to _ england have revised down from low growth to no growth at all. the conservatives have failed on the economy— conservatives have failed on the economy and it is working people who are paying _ economy and it is working people who are paying the price. labour's plan to put— are paying the price. labour's plan to put economic stability at the heart _ to put economic stability at the heart of— to put economic stability at the heart of everything that we do, and national— heart of everything that we do, and national wealth fund to invest alongside businesses and our reforms

to the _ alongside businesses and our reforms to the planning system to get britain — to the planning system to get britain building are all about generating economic growth and the improvements in living standards and vitally— improvements in living standards and vitally we _ improvements in living standards and vitally we haven't had for 13 years under _ vitally we haven't had for 13 years under the — vitally we haven't had for 13 years under the conservatives would stop the us— under the conservatives would stop the us federal reserve has also held rates at _ the us federal reserve has also held rates at a _ the us federal reserve has also held rates at a two decade high. they the us federal reserve has also held rates at a two decade high.— rates at a two decade high. they are hi . her than rates at a two decade high. they are higher than in _ rates at a two decade high. they are higher than in the _ rates at a two decade high. they are higher than in the uk. _ rates at a two decade high. they are higher than in the uk. do _ rates at a two decade high. they are higher than in the uk. do you - rates at a two decade high. they are higher than in the uk. do you blame liz truss for that too? liz higher than in the uk. do you blame liz truss for that too?— liz truss for that too? liz truss's mini budget _ liz truss for that too? liz truss's mini budget last _ liz truss for that too? liz truss's mini budget last year _ liz truss for that too? liz truss's mini budget last year set - liz truss for that too? liz truss's mini budget last year set in - liz truss for that too? liz truss's i mini budget last year set in motion the economic turmoil and the increases _ the economic turmoil and the increases in interest rates that we've — increases in interest rates that we've experienced here in the uk. if you look— we've experienced here in the uk. if you look at— we've experienced here in the uk. if you look at the us, their economy is growing _ you look at the us, their economy is growing strongly whereas in the uk we got _ growing strongly whereas in the uk we got the worst of all worlds, with hi-h we got the worst of all worlds, with high interest rates but now economic growth _ high interest rates but now economic growth at _ high interest rates but now economic growth at all. high interest rates but now economic growth at all-— growth at all. rachel reeves. you can aet growth at all. rachel reeves. you can get more _ growth at all. rachel reeves. you can get more detail _ growth at all. rachel reeves. you can get more detail on _ growth at all. rachel reeves. you can get more detail on the - growth at all. rachel reeves. you can get more detail on the bank l growth at all. rachel reeves. you| can get more detail on the bank of england announcement on interest rates on the bbc live page. now it's time for the weather.

hello again. we've seen some stormy conditions this morning, particularly so across the channel islands, but also across some southern coastal counties of england. now, the met office still has a weather warning in force, particularly so across parts of the southeast for strong winds. these are the kind of gusts we saw earlier in the channel islands, over 100 miles an hour, damaging gusts. but for you, what you'll find is the winds will slowly start to come down as we go through the course of the day as this area of low pressure, which is storm ciaran, continues to drift in the direction of the north sea, but it still has a weather front wrapped around it. so we still are seeing a lot of rain, some of that heavy and persistent, some of it also quite thundery. and as you can see from the isobars, it's still going to be windy, just not to the extent that some of us saw through the course of this morning. for northern ireland, it's a quiter day for you. we're looking at mostly dry. you mightjust get clipped by some rain in the east of northern ireland

through the course of the day. but that's really about it. temperatures up to 12 degrees. through this evening and overnight the low pressure pushes into the north sea. but we still have all this rain wrapped around it, falling in areas that have already seen issues with flooding across eastern scotland and northeast england. and here, too, it is going to be windy but drier with a few showers as we push out towards the west. as we head into friday, this is what's left of the storm. it's continuing to weaken, but it still has a weather front wrapped around it, which means that still some rain coming in across eastern parts of scotland and northeast england. for the rest of us, we're looking at a largely dry day with some showers. the winds continuing to ease, but it will still be quite blustery. and the wind blowing in the showers across northern ireland, parts of north west england, wales as well. temperatures ten to 14 degrees north to south. then as we head into saturday, what's left of the storm continue just to fade in the north sea. but we've got a clutch of fronts coming in from the atlantic. and as you can see, they're going to bring some rain with them and strengthening winds now that initially is going to be affecting parts of southern england and also wales,

but we'll see further showers developing across scotland and also northern ireland. in between it will be something drier and brighter and our temperatures nine in the north to about 14 in the south.

today at one. storm ciaran batters southern england and the channel islands, blowing in windows in the middle of the night. winds of more than 100 miles an hour hitjersey with destruction and

travel disruption. window blew in and then i heard my wife shout, "help!". the chimney stack had come down through the roof. the storm is now moving up along england's south coast. we'll be live with our correspondents. and our other main story this lunchtime is the latest from the middle east, as hundreds more people with foreign passports try to leave gaza through the rafah crossing. a warning about the dangers of e—bike batteries — we speak to a man whose family died in a house fire started by one. # love, love me do, you know i love you...# and the fab four reunited with a little help from technology — the latest and last beatles single is out today. and coming up on bbc news. pressure mounts on manchester united manager erik ten hag. eight losses in 15 games, the latest to newcastle in the league cup.