any decent person can't not be heartbroken by what is going on, but nevertheless hamas has to go. it's the root cause of everything had happening in the gaza strip today. do prime minister netanyahu and the rest of his war cabinet believe that can be achieved by purely military means? or, longer—term, are israelis prepared to try to get a political deal with the palestinians to try to end the conflict once and for all? more than 10,000 palestinians have been killed in israeli air strikes in the last four weeks, according to the hamas—run health ministry. 300 are said to have died overnight. the idf says its fighterjets attacked a50 targets overnight in one of the most intense bombardments so far. the border has reopened for foreign nationals to leave,

but nowhere near enough aid going the other way. the united nations has renewed its call tonight for a humanitarian ceasefire. 0ur paneljoining us to discuss it all tonight, american political scientist and author ian bremmer, and the former downing street's director of communications, guto harri. also on the programme. donald trump on the stand today in new york. he has clashed with the presiding judge, several times — which might not do him any favours in court, but it is not doing him any harm in the polls. we will discuss that. as well as the situation in eastern europe. the polish president has tonight asked the incumbent prime minister mateusz morawieski to form a government. even though its almost certain he will not be able to form a coalition. we will discuss the politics of that and how it pertains to ukraine. good evening. the un secretary—general antonio guterres says gaza is becoming a "graveyard for children" and the case for a "humanitarian ceasefire more urgent with every passing hour". the israeli military says it has hit a50 hamas targets

in the last 2a hours. and now has control of the northern part of the strip cutting off gaza city from the south. they are on the brink of entering the city. but of course beneath the surface, hamas holds the advantage and is using the tunnels to mount counter attacks from the rear. the hamas—run health ministry says over 10,000 palestinians have now been killed in the fighting, 4,000 of them children. our special correspondent fergal keane has been looking at the numbers and a warning this report does contain some distressing images. they cannot choose what they witness. the deaths of others... ..and the grief of their elders. thousands have died. farah hassan was two and a half years old and was killed by an air strike on october 27th.

she came late in the life of her parents, abir and mohammed — reaching now for the comfort of memory. forfour weeks now, ourjournalists in gaza have recorded the impact of the war on its children. those who survive live with the trauma.

but there is another story that speaks of gaza's children and the longing forjoy. 12 years ago, they created a world record for kite—flying, a transcendent moment. and even now, amid all the war has taken, there is also resilience. children making worlds of their own within the war. this 12—year—old finds comfort in her family when the bombing starts. "my mum calls my brothers and sisters to hug them," she says, "and we hold each other�*s hands". in the grounds of al aqsa hospital, staff and the children of refugees. surgical gloves make little balloons. this after one of the heaviest nights of air strikes yet.

in another part of the hospital more of gaza's children are being mourned. little maryam. but who can console who here? fergal keane, bbc news, jerusalem. tough to watch, isn't it? i want to

set this in the context of an interview that the former us president barack 0bama gave when he was asked in the last week about the conflict in the middle east for a podcast interview. an excerpt was released yesterday of that interview in which he emphasises shared responsibility that goes back decades. and so, if you want to solve the problem, then you have to take in the whole truth. and you then have to admit... applause. ..nobody�*s hands are clean. that all of us are complicit to some degree. i wondered what you make of that intervention? i i wondered what you make of that intervention?— i wondered what you make of that intervention? i strongly agree with it. for the intervention? i strongly agree with it. forthe last — intervention? i strongly agree with it. for the last five, _ intervention? i strongly agree with it. for the last five, ten _ intervention? i strongly agree with it. for the last five, ten years, - it. for the last five, ten years, frankly, since 0bama's first couple of years as president, whenjohn

kerry was secretary of state, he spent the first 18 months prioritising and doing shuttle diplomacy, and trying to get himself a nobel peace prize to resolve israel — palestine. since then, 0bama did the pivot to asia. the trump administration was focused on building peace between israel and the gulf states. success, but not focused on the palestinians. no one is focused on the palestinians. not in the region, not outside the regions. of course, not in israel. palestinian governance has been bad and corrupt. if you want to understand how we got into this truly unholy situation, and i use that word literally, that we are in right now, you can line up all of the folks that are culpable for refusing, for having a blind eye, and thinking we canjust ignore refusing, for having a blind eye, and thinking we can just ignore the palestinians and the issue would go away. it palestinians and the issue would go awa . , �* , ., ., away. it isn't entirely out of character. _ away. it isn't entirely out of character, this, _ away. it isn't entirely out of character, this, for - away. it isn't entirely out of character, this, for the - away. it isn't entirely out of i character, this, for the former president, at least on the substance, because he has had a lot

to say about settlements in the past. he warned the age of israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu of what sort of emotion that would stir among the palestinians, and he had a notoriously frosty relationship with the israeli prime minister, but i just wonder if it is a strange moment to put an intervention like this out there, given wherejoe biden is at the moment and what his position is? biden is at the moment and what his osition is? �* �* , biden is at the moment and what his osition is? �* �*, ,.,, ., biden is at the moment and what his osition is? �* �*, ., , position is? biden's position is very similar- — position is? biden's position is very similar. biden _ position is? biden's position is very similar. biden is - position is? biden's position is very similar. biden is dealing i position is? biden's position is . very similar. biden is dealing with a very strong group of democrats that are deeply uncomfortable with the level of humanitarian suffering that has come from some four weeks of israeli bombing of gaza. the united states is the strongest ally of israel out there. no one there is close. that certainly describes the biden administration. it described the 0bama administration. that is very different from how you resolve

this conflict. what 0bama knows and biden is dealing with this right now is that this is a vulnerability he has come next november. he could lose the election in part on the back of arab americans, only 20% of whom would vote for biden. 40% say they would vote for trump! that is 5% of the michigan population. it is over 2% of the pennsylvania population. these are swing states, and biden won by less than that in 2020. 0bama does intervene when he feels like intervening, but on this one, biden and 0bama are not very far apart. one, biden and 0bama are not very farapart. it one, biden and 0bama are not very far a art. , , far apart. it is interesting when ou far apart. it is interesting when you speak _ far apart. it is interesting when you speak to — far apart. it is interesting when you speak to the _ far apart. it is interesting when you speak to the israelis, - far apart. it is interesting when you speak to the israelis, they | you speak to the israelis, they don't want to engage on the wider context. they only want to focus on october the 7th, but asjeremy bowen was saying in our headlines, there has to be, and there must surely be

considering behind closed doors, the israelis, that things can go back to how they were. i'm not sure yet we know what that strategy will be? now, and at the moment this seems to be so _ now, and at the moment this seems to be so much _ now, and at the moment this seems to be so much anger and anxiety in the air. be so much anger and anxiety in the air~ the _ be so much anger and anxiety in the air. the reality of what is happening on the ground is so overwhelming that it is very hard to start that _ overwhelming that it is very hard to start that conversation. the real dangerm — start that conversation. the real dangerm i— start that conversation. the real danger... i rememberattending a danger... i remember attending a peace— danger... i rememberattending a peace conference for the palestinian conflict _ peace conference for the palestinian conflict in _ peace conference for the palestinian conflict in madrid years ago, but the danger is that it this moment each _ the danger is that it this moment each military action sows the seeds of the _ each military action sows the seeds of the next — each military action sows the seeds of the next decade of issues that make _ of the next decade of issues that make the — of the next decade of issues that make the resolution of this century old problem, harderand harder. it is very— old problem, harderand harder. it is very hard— old problem, harderand harder. it is very hard to see how any progress can he _

is very hard to see how any progress can he made — is very hard to see how any progress can be made in the foreseeable future — can be made in the foreseeable future on — can be made in the foreseeable future on this. | can be made in the foreseeable future on this.— can be made in the foreseeable future on this. i want to talk about the problem _ future on this. i want to talk about the problem domestically - future on this. i want to talk about the problem domestically that - future on this. i want to talk about the problem domestically that joe| the problem domestically thatjoe biden might have, because it mirrors some of the splits on the uk which is causing the opposition leader sir keir starmer significant problems. this weekend the leader of burnley council — somewhere close to my heart — resigned from the party along with a 11 fellow councillors. "we cannot remain in a party that is not doing enough whilst innocent people are being killed in gaza and israel" — their letter says. afrasiab anwar explained his decision to radio 4's today programme. now, the labour party, ijoined it, and other members, when we joined the party, we joined it because it was a party that spoke out against injustices right across the world, that was about equality and fairness and socialjustice, and we're just not seeing that. we need to speak out when we see something that's not right. the labour party will say and do anything just to win elections. are they taking the muslim vote for granted, or certain communities for granted? i think it is wider than that. i think they are taking grassroots for granted and not listening

to the voices of people on the ground. he went further than that and said that this is notjust a muslim issue, suella braverman is trying to turn this into a culture war, turning communities on one another when this is a humanitarian issue. he is referring to the way the palestinian protests have been characterised. what does keir starmer do about this? he characterised. what does keir starmer do about this?- characterised. what does keir starmer do about this? he is between a rock and a — starmer do about this? he is between a rock and a hard _ starmer do about this? he is between a rock and a hard place. _ starmer do about this? he is between a rock and a hard place. it _ starmer do about this? he is between a rock and a hard place. it is - a rock and a hard place. it is extremely— a rock and a hard place. it is extremely difficult, and this has happened at a time where he wasjust starting _ happened at a time where he wasjust starting to— happened at a time where he wasjust starting to establish himself quite clearly— starting to establish himself quite clearly as— starting to establish himself quite clearly as being in control of his party _ clearly as being in control of his party. he — clearly as being in control of his party. he has been ahead in the polls— party. he has been ahead in the polls for— party. he has been ahead in the polls for a — party. he has been ahead in the polls for a long time, but he had .ot polls for a long time, but he had got a _ polls for a long time, but he had got a grip— polls for a long time, but he had got a grip on his party, he had good conferences — got a grip on his party, he had good conferences and was in a good place, and i_ conferences and was in a good place, and i don't _ conferences and was in a good place, and i don't think anybody should be seeking _ and i don't think anybody should be seeking party political advantage for any— seeking party political advantage for any of this, it is far too important _ for any of this, it is far too important and far too painful, but the reality— important and far too painful, but the reality is that keir starmer is now facing — the reality is that keir starmer is now facing a huge dissent within his party, _ now facing a huge dissent within his party, because he cannot bring himself—

party, because he cannot bring himself to call for a ceasefire. he thinks _ himself to call for a ceasefire. he thinks that— himself to call for a ceasefire. he thinks that would make him less statesman—like. he wants to be seen to he _ statesman—like. he wants to be seen to he as _ statesman—like. he wants to be seen to be as strong as the british prime minister— to be as strong as the british prime minister is — to be as strong as the british prime minister is and the foreign secretary on this, yet within his party— secretary on this, yet within his party it— secretary on this, yet within his party it is— secretary on this, yet within his party it is notjust the secretary on this, yet within his party it is not just the fact that most _ party it is not just the fact that most muslims tend to vote labour, that would — most muslims tend to vote labour, that would be a selfish reason, but most _ that would be a selfish reason, but most people on the left feel, their heart _ most people on the left feel, their heart bleeds when they see what we all see _ heart bleeds when they see what we all see on— heart bleeds when they see what we all see on our television sets at the moment, and they can't believe that the _ the moment, and they can't believe that the leader of a party of the left, _ that the leader of a party of the left, founded in many ways on the basis _ left, founded in many ways on the basis of— left, founded in many ways on the basis of human rights, and a man who on a previous— basis of human rights, and a man who on a previous life as a human rights lawyer, _ on a previous life as a human rights lawyer, cannot be stronger in representing how they feel. there are elements _ representing how they feel. there are elements within _ representing how they feel. there are elements within the _ representing how they feel. ii—iiff are elements within the democratic party who wantjoe biden to be stronger on this issue. in michigan, in a battleground state, there was an advert accusing president biden of supporting quote, a palestinian genocide. he won a significant share

of the muslim vote in 2020, so as you suggest, this is a crucially important constituency? it is you suggest, this is a crucially important constituency? it is a very serious problem _ important constituency? it is a very serious problem for _ important constituency? it is a very serious problem for him. _ important constituency? it is a very serious problem for him. not - important constituency? it is a very serious problem for him. not only. serious problem for him. not only because the longer this war goes and the more palestinians are killed, the more palestinians are killed, the more palestinians are killed, the more pressure he will get not just from the squad but from rank and file democrats in congress. you are seeing chris murphy, a moderate senatorfrom are seeing chris murphy, a moderate senator from connecticut coming are seeing chris murphy, a moderate senatorfrom connecticut coming out in support of a ceasefire recently. joe biden is saying that privately to benjamin netanyahu in the war cabinet in terms of getting more aid in and creating conditions for peace. joe biden is not telling the war cabinet in israel that you cannot destroy hamas, nobody expects israel to live going forward next to a territory that is run by terrorists that just killed a territory that is run by terrorists thatjust killed 1a00 of their citizens. nobody is expecting that. butjoe biden is saying that you also have to create the conditions for peace with the palestinians after hamas is

destroyed, and that is an area where the americans are not getting a lot of sympathy stop they are not getting much of an ear from the country that the us provides over three billions dollars of taxpayer military aid to every year. that is a vulnerability for biden going forward. it is going to grow over time, and joe biden doesn't have a very good answerfor time, and joe biden doesn't have a very good answer for it. is at time, and joe biden doesn't have a very good answer for it.— very good answer for it. is at a lack of action _ very good answer for it. is at a lack of action on _ very good answer for it. is at a lack of action on the _ very good answer for it. is at a lack of action on the part - very good answer for it. is at a lack of action on the part of. very good answer for it. is at a | lack of action on the part of the administration, or is it antony blinkenjust doesn't administration, or is it antony blinken just doesn't have the ear of the israeli prime minister when it comes to humanitarian pauses, there is nothing much they can do about it? it is nothing much they can do about it? , , , is nothing much they can do about it? , y , ., ., it? it is very interesting on that front. it it? it is very interesting on that front- it is _ it? it is very interesting on that front. it is less _ it? it is very interesting on that front. it is less about _ it? it is very interesting on that front. it is less about the - it? it is very interesting on that| front. it is less about the israeli prime minister, whojoe biden does not like, it is more about the war cabinet. interestingly, prime minister netanyahu who has been a disaster in terms of hamas and national security, disaster in terms of hamas and nationalsecurity, he disaster in terms of hamas and national security, he is a politician. he is aware of how this plays in the united states and with the american media, and benny gantz, who was the military chief of staff,

he is not focused on the politics, the optics, he is focused on defeating hamas, and he is the one who say he would not allow any aid, not a pill into gaza. this is a bigger problem for the us administration than just benjamin netanyahu, who is likely to be removed from office. he is enormously unpopular. benny gantz is likely to be the next prime minister. this is something the israeli people feel very strongly and collectively about. one final point. let's keep in mind that the 1400 point. let's keep in mind that the 1a00 israelis were killed were not settlers, they were far right, there were some of the most progressive israel citizens on the ground in the south. hamas has really managed to turn the entirety of the israeli political spectrum against them, about as strongly as one could possibly imagine.— about as strongly as one could ossibl imauine. .., . .., possibly imagine. important context. we are going — possibly imagine. important context. we are going to _ possibly imagine. important context. we are going to talk— possibly imagine. important context. we are going to talk about _ possibly imagine. important context. we are going to talk about the - possibly imagine. important context. we are going to talk about the us - we are going to talk about the us elections the other side of the break. around the world and across the uk, this bbc news.

let's look at some other stories making news. british steel is planning to shut down its blast furnace in scunthorpe, putting up to 2,000 jobs at risk. the business, owned by a chinese firm, wants to replace it with two electric arc furnaces — one at scunthorpe and one at teesside. construction is expected to take between two and three years, and its part of the company's green transition plan. up to 20,000 health workers in england will receive a one—off bonus of at least £1,700, after previously missing out because they worked for non—nhs organisations. the extra payment was agreed as part of the nhs pay deal in england this year — but some staff were not included. after employers launched legal action, the government has now agreed to provide the funding. several police officers have been injured in edinburgh after clashes with a group of about 50 youths who threw fireworks and petrol bombs last night. police scotland called it a concerted and planned attack on its officers. there were also bonfire night

disturbances in glasgow and dundee. you're live with bbc news. donald trump was back in court today. the former president and current republican front—runner was being questioned in his civil fraud trial in new york that could cost him hundreds of millions of dollars and could bar him from doing any further business in new york. thejudge in the case has already decided that the trump organisation committed fraud, repeatedly. at stake here is the size and the scope of the penalty. it's the first time mr trump has been subjected to extensive questioning in recent memory in the dock, which we will hear about in a second. but on the way into the court today, the former president was keen, as ever, to spin his own narrative. it isa it is a very sad situation for our country. we shouldn't have this — this is for third—world countries. and it's very unfair,

it's very unfair. but in the meantime, the people of the country understand it, they see it, and they don't like it, they don't like it, because its political warfare, as you would call it, or political lawfare, another name — i got a lot of names for it, but usually it takes place in third—world countries and banana republics. nobody�*s ever seen that to this extent, we've never seen it here. but we will go along and we will hopefully do very well in every regard, we will win the election and make america great again, that's what we're going to do. were going to make america great again. but in court it was different. 0n the witness stand he was admonished several times byjudge arthur engoron, who repeatedly told trump to quit with the speeches and answer the questions. live now to our correspondent gary 0'donoghue in new york. i'm sensing from what i have read that donald trump and mrsjustice yip two don't get onto elf? weill. yip two don't get onto elf? well, 'udue yip two don't get onto elf? well, judge engoron — yip two don't get onto elf? well, judge engoron has— yip two don't get onto elf? well, judge engoron has already - yip two don't get onto elf? -ii judge engoron has already fined him

twice, so he is already $15,000 lighter. that tells you what this trial is all about from donald trump is my point of view. it is not a jury is my point of view. it is not a jury trial, it is a bench trial as it is called here, and he is still being rude about it. in some sense, donald trump has thrown in the towel in this case, and this is much more about the politics, the message to the wider country, the message to his supporters. find the wider country, the message to his supporters-— his supporters. and away from the grandstanding. — his supporters. and away from the grandstanding, did _ his supporters. and away from the grandstanding, did we _ his supporters. and away from the grandstanding, did we learn - his supporters. and away from the grandstanding, did we learn today| grandstanding, did we learn today anything that was pertinent to the case, who was responsible for the preparation and presentation of the financial statements? did he have a look at them? did he have any influence of? it look at them? did he have any influence of?— influence of? it is interesting, actuall . influence of? it is interesting, actually. there _ influence of? it is interesting, actually. there are _ influence of? it is interesting, actually. there are couple - influence of? it is interesting, actually. there are couple of. actually. there are couple of moments where the judge asked the attorney general�*s office, do you want him to stop rambling on and speechifying? they said no, we are getting valuable information here.

there are points where donald trump did indicates that he was involved in these decisions on the did implicate that he was involved in the decisions, unlike his children who said there was nothing to do with us and we left it all to the accountant. the prosecution believe they may have got some valuable detail that the judge will be able to take into account when he decides what is fraud. in this case, the discouragement, to you and me, the finds. == discouragement, to you and me, the finds. , thejuxtaposition ing of all that, to the polling released this weekend is pretty extraordinary. this day next year we will know who the next president will be and right now 12 months out donald trump is ahead in all the key battleground states. he is beating biden in nevada, by 11 points, he is beating him in georgia, arizona, michigan, and pennsylvania. and he is eating into the president's wafer thin lead in wisconsin.

and it's the type of registered voters the president is losing in these swing states, that will worry democrats more. let me compare this picture to how it was in 2020. among young voters under 30, he had a 2a point lead — 60% preferred him to trump. that has now almost disappeared — just 47% prefer biden. the black vote, crucial in georgia, is down a third, from 87 %to 71%. look at the split among men and women — 50% of women prefer biden compared to just 37% of men. important to stress, that a poll like this is only ever a snapshot in time, it is not yet, smash the glass time for democrats. but there are concerns mounting, ian? are the right to be concerned? sure the are. are the right to be concerned? sure they are- 7196 _ are the right to be concerned? sure they are- 7196 of _ are the right to be concerned? sure they are. 7196 of voters _ are the right to be concerned? (is they are. 71% of voters think biden is to old to run, and as best as i

can tell he is likely to be one year older in 12 months' time. i don't know about you, i don't have any experience working with eight—year—olds, there aren't really any in our organisation. most americans would say the same. even though americans would say the same. even thouthoe biden is intellectually compass mentis, he is halting. his physical capacity is not what it was even two years ago, never mind ten. that is a serious concern given her robust trump looks and appears —— how robust donald trump looks and appears. we still have a long time, when you think how inflation is, immigration, illegal immigration impacting blue states, sanctuary cities, after 2.5 years, nobody travelling, and pent—up demand because of the pandemic, not to mention the fact that the two big foreign policy issues look increasingly challenging for biden, the middle east war and the war in

ukraine. it is early. looking out over the next 12 months, it is hard to come up with great stories. you can come up with stories that say biden can win, but it is hard to say that biden is going to paste this guy, given how un—capable and unfit trump has been, people close to biden are deeply concerned. let me show ou biden are deeply concerned. let me show you what _ biden are deeply concerned. let me show you what we're _ biden are deeply concerned. let me show you what we're talking - biden are deeply concerned. let me show you what we're talking about. | biden are deeply concerned. let me | show you what we're talking about. | show you what we're talking about. the number on age somewhere in the 30s in the number on age somewhere in the 305 in 2010. the number on age somewhere in the 30s in 2010. compare that to donald trump who only 39% as think too old for the role. a lot of these trials are starting to begin on critical daysin are starting to begin on critical days in the election cycle. this

coincides with the iowa caucuses. super tuesday in march coincides with the 2020 election trail. there is also his classified documents trial due to start in late may. his legal team and his campaign team are going to have to be in sync. is it because him a problem when it comes to that head—to—head race? it is to that head-to-head race? it is astonishing. _ to that head-to-head race? it is astonishing, isn't _ to that head-to-head race? it is astonishing, isn't it? _ to that head—to—head race? it is astonishing, isn't it? you just can't — astonishing, isn't it? you just can't believe this. if it was fiction. _ can't believe this. if it was fiction, you would think it was too far-fetched — fiction, you would think it was too far—fetched to be real that you have a nran— far—fetched to be real that you have a man who — far—fetched to be real that you have a man who is palpably ageing before our eyes _ a man who is palpably ageing before our eyes in _ a man who is palpably ageing before our eyes injoe biden, and i am astonished _ our eyes injoe biden, and i am astonished there isn't a stronger push _ astonished there isn't a stronger push to— astonished there isn't a stronger push to come up with a stronger candidate — push to come up with a stronger candidate next year, and then you have _ candidate next year, and then you have a _ candidate next year, and then you have a man — candidate next year, and then you have a man who is going through a series— have a man who is going through a series of— have a man who is going through a series of trials, who was already odious _ series of trials, who was already odious before any of this started, and yet _ odious before any of this started, and yet what he is clearly going to do is _ and yet what he is clearly going to do is use — and yet what he is clearly going to do is use every one of these things not as— do is use every one of these things not as something to try and hide, not as something to try and hide, not do _ not as something to try and hide, not do something to shy away from, but as— not do something to shy away from, but as a _ not do something to shy away from, but as a platform and a catwalk. he

is going _ but as a platform and a catwalk. he is going to — but as a platform and a catwalk. he is going to use the courts to play to the _ is going to use the courts to play to the gallery, and for half the population are the people who loathe him, population are the people who loathe him. each _ population are the people who loathe him, each one will be confirmation why he _ him, each one will be confirmation why he should not be president, but for those _ why he should not be president, but for those on — why he should not be president, but for those on his site each one is confirmation that the establishment is out _ confirmation that the establishment is out to— confirmation that the establishment is out to get him. so, he can play everyone — is out to get him. so, he can play everyone of— is out to get him. so, he can play everyone of these to his advantage. somewhere in the mix, better people than we _ somewhere in the mix, better people than we have to find a way to break that dynamic and making sure that the american people, who are one of the american people, who are one of the greatest nations on earth, can see that _ the greatest nations on earth, can see that it— the greatest nations on earth, can see that it is not right to pick a potential— see that it is not right to pick a potential felon as their democratically elected president, and demand that the rest of the western— and demand that the rest of the western world and the democratic world _ western world and the democratic world have got to have as a figurehead ourselves as well. there is a riant figurehead ourselves as well. there is a giant caveat _ figurehead ourselves as well. there is a giant caveat buried _ figurehead ourselves as well. there is a giant caveat buried in _ figurehead ourselves as well. there is a giant caveat buried in the - is a giant caveat buried in the spalding which the new york times published today which is, what is donald trump convicted and sentenced? if that were the case, it

is suggested around 6% of voters would switch their vote. i've only got is suggested around 6% of voters would switch their vote. i've only got 20 is suggested around 6% of voters would switch their vote. i've only got 20 seconds, is suggested around 6% of voters would switch their vote. i've only got 20 seconds, but is suggested around 6% of voters would switch their vote. i've only got 20 seconds, but i is suggested around 6% of voters would switch their vote. i've only got 20 seconds, but i could is suggested around 6% of voters would switch their vote. i've only got 20 seconds, but i could be is suggested around 6% of voters would switch their vote. i've only got 20 seconds, but i could be the defining factor? it is got 20 seconds, but i could be the defining factor?— defining factor? it is unlikely that will happen _ defining factor? it is unlikely that will happen in _ defining factor? it is unlikely that will happen in time, _ defining factor? it is unlikely that will happen in time, and - defining factor? it is unlikely thatj will happen in time, and secondly the other thing it didn't have was the other thing it didn't have was the third party candidates, and robert kennedyjunior is pulling between 15% and 20%, and that takes away from trump. that between 15% and 20%, and that takes away from trump-— away from trump. that is really important- _ away from trump. that is really important- we _ away from trump. that is really important. we will— away from trump. that is really important. we will take - away from trump. that is really important. we will take a - away from trump. that is really important. we will take a quick| important. we will take a quick break. good evening. an unusually strong solar wind meant that last night's aurora borealis was seen as far south as kent, here in the uk. now we've still got some clear skies, but the aurora won't be as strong tonight. we're looking out to the atlantic, though, now for our next area of rain to come in not for tomorrow, but for tomorrow night. so we've still got the low pressure with us, and that will continue to push showers eastwards across scotland, in particular

as that lowjust drifts its way eastwards, it will pull those showers through the central belt, for example, and eastwards. but for many, as we go through the early hours, the showers die back to the coasts in the west, allowing the temperatures to dip away. there'll be some mist and fog, as well as some ground frost as we get towards tuesday morning. so the fog around for the rush hour, particularly across scotland, northern scotland, and then, it's another day of sunny spells and showers. but with a ridge of high pressure building in as the day goes on, that means that hopefully we'll see fewer showers for northern ireland, western parts of england, wales, and scotland as we go through the day, the odd one popping up further east, as well. and temperatures on a par with those of today, with slightly lighter winds. so not too bad again, but then, as we get into tomorrow evening, the temperatures will fall away ahead of our rain — so you can see the blue hue here, the frost developing in northern and eastern areas — but it doesn't last, because that next weather front pushes in. so we are talking about another spell of wet weather as we go through tuesday night and into wednesday. so a fairly wet start

to our wednesday morning across many parts of scotland, england, and wales. wet through the evening, early part of the night across northern ireland. another inch of rain, 20—30mm — not good news. remember, of course, the ground is still saturated, the river is running high. it should pull away as we go through the early part of the afternoon from southern and eastern areas, but the timing a little bit uncertain at the moment. again, very similar temperatures, 9—13, but starting to feel a bit cooler in the north — and that's because we're sort of pulling in some arctic air around this area of low pressure, which will continue to feed in lots of showers through thursday and friday. so, slightly cooler before we see the return of the atlantic air perhaps into the weekend, and probably with it the next dose of rain. so, some rain tuesday night into wednesday, and it's sunny spells and showers, but it could well turn quite wet again through saturday and into sunday. as ever, we'll keep you posted, and there's more on the website.