-- a lining. that been so key. —— a lining. that is something sec. blinken has been — is something sec. blinken has been working all around the clock— been working all around the clock with. something to deepen our partnerships with the who share — our partnerships with the who share our— our partnerships with the who share our vision with a free rules— share our vision with a free rules —based world. notjust in the indo—pacific region put around _ the indo—pacific region put around the planet. that is something that we will continue to work— something that we will continue to work towards. we something that we will continue to work towards.— something that we will continue to work towards. we are hearing that the press — to work towards. we are hearing that the press conference - to work towards. we are hearing that the press conference by - to work towards. we are hearing that the press conference by us| that the press conference by us presidentjoe biden has moved indoors because of rain in san francisco. we will bring you that as soon it starts. with me here in the studio. as a visiting research process or —— professor. thank you for your insights. china has said that it will not negotiate on taiwan without america adhering to the one china policy. how is that

possible?— one china policy. how is that ossible? ., , , ., possible? that is basely what has been going _ possible? that is basely what has been going on _ possible? that is basely what has been going on over - possible? that is basely what has been going on over the last 30-40 has been going on over the last 30—a0 years. it has been a cornerstone of the america chinese relationship that america acknowledges, recognises one china policy. that will not change. there is a difference between a one china policy that moves towards political unification and a one china policy that wants to maintain the status quo with taiwan being the sovereign entity. not an independent country, a sovereign entity. that is what america and most western countries would like to continue. the question is, how much longer will china continue to live with that reality. i am not so sanguine about a military option being off the table, but it is very clear in the next three years, until 2030 or so, both the chinese side and the american side do

not feel confident that they could wind a conflict, might one occur. that realisation also comes out in the ukraine conflict. in the lessons learned from there. and i think it is hovering over these can dilute leave discussions xi jinping realises he could invade taiwan but could not win the war. americans realise if there is a word they cannot fit there is a word they cannot fit the chinese out without varying significant losses in american boots on the ground. so i think that, realistic assessment, of the military relationship regarding time one is the key factor at the moment. it is not about principles, it's about realistic policy decisions. we have the taiwan election coming up have the taiwan election coming up in january have the taiwan election coming up injanuary of course. how do you see that playing out and china's reaction?— you see that playing out and china's reaction? first we must realise that _ china's reaction? first we must realise that the _ china's reaction? first we must realise that the chinese - realise that the chinese government has already interfered in the taiwanese elections. they dissuaded one

of the candidates on behalf of the nationalist party and government to pull out of the race. to give the front runner the best possible chance to win against democratic progressive party currently in power. so there has already been interference. that is not the first time. so to say china should not interfere in taiwanese elections, but in pretzel should be true, but in fact it is already happening and everybody does this. —— in principle. it is very likely that a democratic progressive party president will be elected and i think china should or is already preparing for that reality so that will continue the current acrimony situation thatis the current acrimony situation that is across the taiwanese trait. but i do not think it will actually things make

worse. it has been pretty bad already, it's been bad enough but i have not seen any escalation occurring because of the elections. of course this has been trumped up in media discourse in china and taiwan but i think things will continue as is more than anything else. but america should not do, is to make more moves vis—a—vis the government of taiwan, either the current or the new one in making a show of recognising it as an independent state because that is really a line that they should not cross.- is really a line that they should not cross. stay there, frank. should not cross. stay there, frank- we — should not cross. stay there, frank. we will _ should not cross. stay there, frank. we will come - should not cross. stay there, frank. we will come back- should not cross. stay there, frank. we will come back as | frank. we will come back as soon as we hear what president biden says and we can show you some live pictures of president biden's press conference. the arrangements happening there. we are expecting him to come out and talk about his meeting

with xijinping, the out and talk about his meeting with xi jinping, the chinese leader. the first face to face meeting in one year. moving on now. we are going to go back to frank. we thought that presser was going to start, but we will come back to frank. frank, on taiwan there are the political issues with the election coming up issues with the election coming up injanuary. there is also the economic issues because taiwan is such a big producer of semiconductors and that, they have, provide a lot of the supply chains for american companies, american products. what is the feeling amongst american businesses on china, taiwan and the economy? first of all, taiwan and the economy? first of all. yes. _ taiwan and the economy? first of all, yes, the _ taiwan and the economy? first of all, yes, the taiwanese - taiwan and the economy? f “st

of all, yes, the taiwanese semi conductor corporation is a key player in the semiconductor business and will continue to do so. that is also why both united states and the eu are now setting up essentially factories built by this corporation in their own country. that is basically saying that we do not want to take the risk that the chinese will invade taiwan or disrupt supply chains from taiwan. we want to have that now in—house in our own country so that in itself is having a geopolitical important issue. but i have been speaking to a lot of foreign invested companies in china over the last half a year and not so much from america, more from europe and asia and what i see from coming out of thatis what i see from coming out of that is that there is still a very strong appetite for investment in china, staying in china, working in china. china is actually irreplaceable for many foreign countries to limit

companies and i will continue for a very long time. so we should not be misled by the mixed messages about disinvestment about china, decoupling and de—risking, that is happening, but that quite often is more driven by economic factors rather than political factors. economic factors rather than politicalfactors. also, the main political risks forcing about china when you talk to businesses is actually not china but the united states. these businesses are really, really fearful of any sanctions by the united states, any effort or attempt to force companies to decouple. that is at the top of their list of fears. so not china, but the us and the way that they deal with trade relations and business relations with china. that is foremost on the minds of business leaders across asia and across europe. naturally because these _ and across europe. naturally because these are _ and across europe. naturally because these are the - and across europe. naturally because these are the two i because these are the two largest economies in the world.

there is a lot going on in china but the slow down, economic, also in the us with rising inflation and interest rates as well. how much do you think this meeting is playing to both the leaders of�*s electorate. i to both the leaders of's electorate.— electorate. i think both leaders _ electorate. i think both leaders could - electorate. i think both leaders could do - electorate. i think both leaders could do with l electorate. i think both leaders could do with a electorate. i think both - leaders could do with a thought in their economic performance. they are choosing the case but now in particular, i would say. more so for china actually over the united states. so china is we will know, facing a slowdown in the economy and because of a american sanctions also some real problems. but that does not mean the chinese economy is that in the water. the chinese economy is very resilient and very strong. and is a unique manufacturing base for the whole of the world, still, that you cannot simply live without. so i think china will bounce back, whether the americans, with or without the americans.

with the americans, it will be easier and quicker, without the americans there will still be able to do it, but they will restructure the economy to be much less dependent, of course, on foreign investment and foreign trade. something that they are already doing and they will continue to do so. that is really where they are going. decoupling does not normally mean the west is decoupling from china. but the fact china has already been decoupling from the west and the rest of the world for a very long time and much more effectively and strategically. so it works both ways. but having said that, i think the chinese economy will actually bounce back in the long run and remain a very important force in the world economy. important force in the world economy-— important force in the world econom . .., economy. something we care about a lot — economy. something we care about a lot in _ economy. something we care about a lot in this _ economy. something we care about a lot in this region - economy. something we care about a lot in this region is i about a lot in this region is who will take china's place. of course, many economies in asia rely on china for business and as a huge market with many returns because of the population size. where do you

think the business can go if not china? . think the business can go if not china?— think the business can go if not china? , , ,., not china? , this is something that has already _ not china? , this is something that has already happened - not china? , this is something| that has already happened over the at least last five years. this is not decoupling, it is simply that supply chains have shifted from good economic reasons. labour costs in china are rising in some places are just as high as in singapore. and it is simply not worth your while any more to have labour—intensive processes taking place in china include both foreign investment and chinese companies. they're doing you both. so they're going places like vietnam and some high—tech relocation to actually take place to singapore as well. india is very much in the picture despite the difficulties with infesting in business there. —— investing. but i do not think that means were china will replace rather their position in the global value change is us shifting for subs moving up the value ladder in other countries are taking china's place at the lower spots of the

supply chains. so china will continue to be a major hub and in fact the most important hub of global supply chains but its position in the supply chain will change. is changing. and will change. is changing. and will continue to change. frank. i know are _ will continue to change. frank. i know are staying _ will continue to change. frank. i know are staying with - will continue to change. frank. i know are staying with us - will continue to change. frank. i know are staying with us so i i know are staying with us so we will get your insights after the us president speaks. if you'rejust running the the us president speaks. if you're just running the us we are waiting for the us presence, and give his remarks after his historic meeting with china's president xijinping. they talked forfour china's president xijinping. they talked for four hours and we are waiting to hear what they talked about. for now. let's go live to the us and join clifford hart the former us consul general to hong kong and macau and served as he was national security council's china and taiwan director. great to talk to you. what are your key readings from this meeting a short while ago. we

have yet to hear exactly what they talked bible we are curing some bits and pieces.- they talked bible we are curing some bits and pieces. thank you some bits and pieces. thank you so much- — some bits and pieces. thank you so much- it _ some bits and pieces. thank you so much. it is— some bits and pieces. thank you so much. it is great _ some bits and pieces. thank you so much. it is great be _ some bits and pieces. thank you so much. it is great be here. - some bits and pieces. thank you so much. it is great be here. i. so much. it is great be here. i will be surprised when we hear the president at the press conference, we do not find that this event has been largely as we would have expected it to be. it was always unlikely that there would be breakthroughs in this kind of meeting between the president after the year given the state of their relationship. but meetings of this kind are still important. important for even for close friends to get together and chat periodically, but even more important for countries that have tensions between them to meet. at the same time, the white house staff in the president himself, in the last week have been carefully trying to reduce expectations. we are likely to see possible agreements on a few items, military to military dialogue, control offence and all,

climate change —— control over fentanyl. but we can only tell of her time with these mean in practice. of her time with these mean in ractice. . , . . of her time with these mean in ractice. ., , . ., ., practice. fascinating. you worked a _ practice. fascinating. you worked a lot _ practice. fascinating. you worked a lot in _ practice. fascinating. you worked a lot in this - practice. fascinating. youl worked a lot in this region. how concerned are you about china's increasing influence in the asia—pacific, the pacific in particular and about china's military actions in the south tennessee? i military actions in the south tennessee?— military actions in the south tennessee? i think there is a lot of concern. _ tennessee? i think there is a lot of concern. what - tennessee? i think there is a lot of concern. what is - lot of concern. what is interesting is that despite the intense focus on the us china relationship, admittedly as important as it is, one of the most remarkable things that has been happening over the last couple of three years is rebalancing of power across the region. the way this really genuinely historically important policy innovations introduced by tokyo or new delhi or manila for that matter would have been significant.

put them together and it indicates a bunch of countries indicates a bunch of countries in the region all of them or most of whom are concerned about china's behaviour. it is not merely the united states. it's not every country in the region, but many countries there. one of the big questions at the summit while the chinese are apparently trying to put on are apparently trying to put on a smiley face, xijinping a smiley face, xi jinping literally a smiley face, xijinping literally smiling in the open remarks to media, but we will see that having a effort to stabilise the us china relationship and we will see parallel moves by beijing with regard to other countries in the region in the south tennessee or around the east tennessee or around the east tennessee in regard to territorial disputes with japan or along the border with india. i think its approach towards taiwan is solved as controversy

with what appeared to be gas at certain times. at the end of the day i think beijing knows what its ministration is doing. i think it will have been useful during this session for the president to make clear that the us one china policy, not the beijing one china principle but the us one china policy remains in place and that we do not support taiwan independence. and it is important the president to say that. but to sing that the president knows the chinese know it's likely that the us has obligations under its own law but much less its own strategic interest in the region to provide support to taiwan to make sure it's not i think beijing is simply encountering resistance to its own behaviour, such as the president has been talking

about support for taiwan in