distant —— very different systems. it is worth— distant —— very different systems. it is worth doing the thought experiment to move to september, when _ experiment to move to september, when we _ experiment to move to september, when we did know what the consequences of this virus was, we did know— consequences of this virus was, we did know that the measures to restrict— did know that the measures to restrict contacts worked and we did know _ restrict contacts worked and we did know that — restrict contacts worked and we did know that you had to move early. the number _ know that you had to move early. the number of _ know that you had to move early. the number of infections and deaths at every— number of infections and deaths at every stage for subsequent decisions or orders— every stage for subsequent decisions or orders of— every stage for subsequent decisions or orders of magnitude in some cases higher— or orders of magnitude in some cases higher therr— or orders of magnitude in some cases higher than that period in march. i thihk_ higher than that period in march. i think in— higher than that period in march. i think in retrospect, the march decision— think in retrospect, the march decision was earlier than some of the teter— decision was earlier than some of the later decisions, even with the knowledge that came with that. i think— knowledge that came with that. i think it _ knowledge that came with that. i think it is — knowledge that came with that. i think it is difficult to concede that— think it is difficult to concede that that _ think it is difficult to concede that that decision would have been made _ that that decision would have been made much before that weekend, as i say possibly— made much before that weekend, as i say possibly a few days. we made much before that weekend, as i say possibly a few days.— say possibly a few days. we will be cominu on say possibly a few days. we will be coming on to _ say possibly a few days. we will be coming on to talk— say possibly a few days. we will be

coming on to talk about _ say possibly a few days. we will be coming on to talk about later- say possibly a few days. we will be coming on to talk about later in - say possibly a few days. we will be | coming on to talk about later in the year, september, second lockdown and so on. the premise of my question so far has been that there was going to be a lockdown in march or thereabouts, it was just a question of when it happened and could it have been imposed earlier. adopting the same hindsight approach, do you think that in fact that first lockdown might have been avoided altogether had things been done differently? i altogether had things been done differentl ? ~ . altogether had things been done differentl ? ,, . ., differently? i think that if we had had a sealed. _ differently? i think that if we had had a scaled, test, _ differently? i think that if we had had a scaled, test, trace - differently? i think that if we had had a scaled, test, trace and - had a scaled, test, trace and isolate — had a scaled, test, trace and isolate system in place, you stand a tletter— isolate system in place, you stand a better chance of keeping this under controt _ better chance of keeping this under controt i_ better chance of keeping this under control. i think that in that situation _ control. i think that in that situation even a short type of lockdown, without defining what is in doubt, _ lockdown, without defining what is in doubt, but npis to try to reduce dra- in doubt, but npis to try to reduce drag and _ in doubt, but npis to try to reduce drag and then keeping it under

controt— drag and then keeping it under control with test and trace, but the reality _ control with test and trace, but the reality was — control with test and trace, but the reality was we didn't have a test and isolate system at scale, and pubtic— and isolate system at scale, and public health england seemed unable to operate that and that would have required _ to operate that and that would have required a _ to operate that and that would have required a lot more planning over previous— required a lot more planning over previous years and had occurred. even _ previous years and had occurred. even with — previous years and had occurred. even with that, because we got to see did _ even with that, because we got to see did so — even with that, because we got to see did so widely across the uk, not from _ see did so widely across the uk, not from china, — see did so widely across the uk, not from china, not from the countries where _ from china, not from the countries where people thought this would come from, _ where people thought this would come front. but _ where people thought this would come from, but from europe, with huge importations, and you can see this in the _ importations, and you can see this in the genomics... this is half term? — in the genomics... this is half term? this _ in the genomics... this is half term? this is half term. we had a huge _ term? this is half term. we had a huge inftux — term? this is half term. we had a huge influx from spain, france, itaty— huge influx from spain, france, itaty from — huge influx from spain, france, italy from that half term and beyond. _ italy from that half term and beyond, that meant that we probably had lost _ beyond, that meant that we probably had lost control and test, trace and isolate _ had lost control and test, trace and isolate only— had lost control and test, trace and isolate only works at low levels of prevalence and a high level of capacity— prevalence and a high level of capacity in the system. sorry, that's— capacity in the system. sorry, that's a — capacity in the system. sorry, that's a long answer, but i think

with— that's a long answer, but i think with everything that we had in place or didn't _ with everything that we had in place or didn't have in place at the time i'm or didn't have in place at the time i'm afraid — or didn't have in place at the time i'm afraid that the ultimate option of trying _ i'm afraid that the ultimate option of trying to lock things down probably was the only route open at that time _ probably was the only route open at that time. . ~ probably was the only route open at that time. . ,, , ., , probably was the only route open at that time. . ~' ,, , . probably was the only route open at that time. . ,, i. , . ,, that time. thank you very much, sir patrick. that time. thank you very much, sir patrick- just — that time. thank you very much, sir patrick. just before _ that time. thank you very much, sir patrick. just before the _ that time. thank you very much, sir patrick. just before the break, - that time. thank you very much, sir patrick. just before the break, sir. patrick. just before the break, sir patrick. just before the break, sir patrick. when _ patrick. just before the break, sir patrick. when you _ patrick. just before the break, sir patrick. when you had _ patrick. just before the break, sir patrick. when you had this - patrick. just before the break, sir. patrick. when you had this so-called patrick. when you had this so—called reprimand, you said that it was the permanent secretary of the dhs see and the cabinet secretary. were they really more concerned about the process aspect of what you were saying that the substance, which was basically that the dam has burst? that is what they said to me afterwards. i spoke to chris wormald about _ afterwards. i spoke to chris wormald about it _ afterwards. i spoke to chris wormald about it and — afterwards. i spoke to chris wormald about it and i hear your very cross with me — about it and i hear your very cross with me his— about it and i hear your very cross with me. his response was, there are

ways of— with me. his response was, there are ways of doing this that we need to make _ ways of doing this that we need to make sure — ways of doing this that we need to make sure it is structured and ordered — make sure it is structured and ordered and goes with the proper process— ordered and goes with the proper process rather than i had set it as a statement. we agreed to differ a bit on _ a statement. we agreed to differ a bit on that — a statement. we agreed to differ a bit on that. i a statement. we agreed to differ a bit on that-— bit on that. i would actually fear reaction on _ bit on that. i would actually fear reaction on that. _ bit on that. i would actually fear reaction on that. very _ bit on that. i would actually fear reaction on that. very well, - bit on that. i would actually fear reaction on that. very well, a i bit on that. i would actually fear reaction on that. very well, a 15| reaction on that. very well, a 15 minute break. so that is the covid inquiry, and patrick vallance giving evidence. well we have been listening to that, the prime minister, rishi sunak, has been talking about the economy. it is ahead of the chancellor's autumn statement. let's hear a bit of what he said. it statement. let's hear a bit of what he said. . ~ , statement. let's hear a bit of what he said. m , . he said. it takes political courage to take the _ he said. it takes political courage to take the difficult _ he said. it takes political courage to take the difficult the _ he said. it takes political courage to take the difficult the right - to take the difficult the right decisions for the long term. the truth is sir keir starmer and rachel reeves tried to block or opportunistically oppose almost every major decision we took to get

our debt falling. if they get the chance they will make a problem even worse, continuing the big government, big spending approach of the pandemic and promising to borrow a further £28 billion a year. this makes the same economic mistake as last year's mini budget, blowing tens of billions of pounds on unfunded spending isjust tens of billions of pounds on unfunded spending is just as dangerous as glowing tens of billions of pounds on unfunded tax cuts. it's taking the easy way out and the result is the same. higher inflation, financial and security and morejets inflation, financial and security and more jets for our children and grandchildren. you know i won't allow that to happen. i was willing to resign from the previous government over this. i was even willing to lose a leadership election over this. so you had better believe me when i say the difference is real. i will do what is necessary to get our debt down

and provide financial security. the second decision that we are taking is to cut tax and reward hard work. i want to cut taxes. i believe in cutting taxes. more clear expression could there be of my governing philosophy than the belief that people and not governments make the best decisions about their money. but doing that responsibly is hard. we must avoid showing anything that puts at risk progress and controlling inflation and no matter how much you might want them to history shows that tax cuts don't automatically pay for themselves. i can't click my fingers and suddenly wash away all the reasons that taxes had to increase in the first place, partly because of covid and the war in ukraine, and also because we want to support people to live in dignity in retirement with a decent pension and good health care, which will cost more as the population ages. my

argument has never been that we shouldn't cut taxes. it's been that we could only cut taxes once we had controlled inflation and debt. first cut inflation, then cut taxes and thatis cut inflation, then cut taxes and that is why i made the promise to have inflation and the official statistics show that promise has now been met. so now that inflation is halved and our growth is stronger, meaning revenues are higher, we can begin the next phase and turn our attention to cutting tax. we will do this in a serious, responsible way, based on fiscal rules to deliver sound money and alongside the independent forecasts of the office for budget responsibility. rishi sunak giving — for budget responsibility. rishi sunak giving us _ for budget responsibility. rishi sunak giving us a _ for budget responsibility. rishi sunak giving us a favour there of what we might expect in the autumn budget. rishi sunak they're adding to the case, as we have already

heard from jeremy hunt, for tax cuts. clearly he feels the economy is fast approaching the point at which you can afford to do that. yes, he wasn't at all subtle about it. it is abundantly clear that tax cuts are coming, though we didn't set specifically, and they are coming on wednesday injeremy hunt's autumn statement. that is interesting. it was less than two months ago thatjeremy hunt was saying it would be virtually impossible for the government to cut taxes now. there are a few different reasons why the narrative has changed a bit. some of that is economic. we saw last week and rishi sunak was keen to tout the fact that the government has hit its target to have inflation by the end of the year, and inflation coming down faster than the government expected has given the government more room to cut taxes. also the government's forecast made the tax receipts are slightly higher than they expected and that has given them more money

to play with. also politically it is still clear that the government has made various attempts to force a political gear shift have not quite yet worked. they are still along way behind the labour party in the polls and they want to try to draw a clear contrast on their economic policies and am sure there will begin on wednesday was some kind of tax cut. the backdrop to the tax cuts is that inflation is coming down. what about growth in the economy? taste inflation is coming down. what about growth in the economy?— growth in the economy? we expect them to east _ growth in the economy? we expect them to cast the _ growth in the economy? we expect them to cast the autumn _ growth in the economy? we expect| them to cast the autumn statement growth in the economy? we expect - them to cast the autumn statement as a growth set of measures. it is a mini budget, of course. we have seen over the last few years that many budgets can be quite significant. we have heard a lot of talk about inheritance tax over recent weeks being cut. i don't think they will do that on wednesday. inheritance tax doesn't have a lot to do with growth. rishi sunak was dropping some quite unsubtle hints that he wanted to cut taxes in a way that

boosts work, so perhaps that nina national insurance cut is in the offing. that would be very significant. i would expect the government to argue that that shows that the government is putting more money in worker's pockets. the politics of it is that you would expect i'm sure the labour party to then argue it is on the government's watch that inflation has got so high, and that also the tax burden has got so high. i think those are the sorts of arguments we will see beginning now and very much so on wednesday. beginning now and very much so on wednesday-— wednesday. noticeably, he took a sideswi -e wednesday. noticeably, he took a sideswipe at _ wednesday. noticeably, he took a sideswipe at liz _ wednesday. noticeably, he took a sideswipe at liz truss, _ wednesday. noticeably, he took a sideswipe at liz truss, his - sideswipe at liz truss, his predecessor, over her budget which caused quite a crisis. rishi predecessor, over her budget which caused quite a crisis.— caused quite a crisis. rishi sunak is only prime _ caused quite a crisis. rishi sunak is only prime minister— caused quite a crisis. rishi sunak is only prime minister because i caused quite a crisis. rishi sunakj is only prime minister because of liz truss�*s mini budget late last year. onlyjust a bit over a year ago, it feels like a lot longer! it is interesting because the reason

that liz truss one that leadership election against rishi sunak in the summer of 2022 was because rishi sunak argued against her that tax cuts would be inflationary and they shouldn't happen at a time of high inflation. you saw in his speech today that rishi sunak was trying to argue that circumstances have changed. he drew attention to last week? inflation figures and argued they were effectively a turning point and now the government can move to a new phase of cutting taxes. i'm surejeremy hunt will have to argue that whatever tax cut the pursue will not make inflation worse. 5ir the pursue will not make inflation worse. ,, . . . . worse. sir patrick vallance has been tellin: the worse. sir patrick vallance has been telling the covid _ worse. sir patrick vallance has been telling the covid inquiry _ worse. sir patrick vallance has been telling the covid inquiry difficult - telling the covid inquiry difficult was in agreement about suppressing the virus to protect the nhs, not enough work was being done about how

actually do achieve that aim. d0 enough work was being done about how actually do achieve that aim.— actually do achieve that aim. do you think that enough _ actually do achieve that aim. do you think that enough was _ actually do achieve that aim. do you think that enough was done - actually do achieve that aim. do you think that enough was done during l think that enough was done during february to understand what that meant and what is an nhs overwhelmed would look like, what the numbers involved were?— would look like, what the numbers involved were? well, there was a lot done in terms _ involved were? well, there was a lot done in terms of _ involved were? well, there was a lot done in terms of what _ involved were? well, there was a lot done in terms of what needed - involved were? well, there was a lot done in terms of what needed to - involved were? well, there was a lot done in terms of what needed to be, j done in terms of what needed to be, what the _ done in terms of what needed to be, what the options were to reduce the spread. _ what the options were to reduce the spread. so _ what the options were to reduce the spread, so quite early in february work— spread, so quite early in february work started on non—pharmaceutical interventions. niall ferguson in particular— interventions. niall ferguson in particular drew up a lot of modelling around that. what the different — modelling around that. what the different options where. and came up with a _ different options where. and came up with a figure that others endorsed of needing to get the 75% reduction in contact _ of needing to get the 75% reduction in contact to try to really suppress this to _ in contact to try to really suppress this to the — in contact to try to really suppress this to the right levels. there was a tot— this to the right levels. there was a tot of— this to the right levels. there was a lot of work done on the modelling, there _ a lot of work done on the modelling, there was— a lot of work done on the modelling, there was a — a lot of work done on the modelling, there was a lot of work done exposing _ there was a lot of work done exposing those options into cobra, including _ exposing those options into cobra, including with the behavioural science — including with the behavioural science and put on that, and there

was a _ science and put on that, and there was a discussion which i think boris johnson _ was a discussion which i think boris johnson put — was a discussion which i think boris johnson put in his statement which she had _ johnson put in his statement which she had with the cmo at the end of february— she had with the cmo at the end of february on lockdown options and what _ february on lockdown options and what the — february on lockdown options and what the implications of those would be. what the implications of those would be there _ what the implications of those would be. there was a lot of evidence that there _ be. there was a lot of evidence that there were — be. there was a lot of evidence that there were things that needed to happen— there were things that needed to happen in— there were things that needed to happen in orderto there were things that needed to happen in order to achieve this aim of suppressing the curve. i'm not convinced — of suppressing the curve. i'm not convinced that there was a very effective — convinced that there was a very effective operational response to that _ effective operational response to that. sir— effective operational response to that. ,, . . . . that. sir patrick vallance there. life not your— that. sir patrick vallance there. life not your correspondence i that. sir patrick vallance there. | life not your correspondence ali price for more on the inquiry. one of the things i thought there was interesting is his continual reference to data and the lack of it. , ~ . �* , . it. yes, i think that's right. that is the big issue _ it. yes, i think that's right. that is the big issue with _ it. yes, i think that's right. that is the big issue with this - it. yes, | think that's right. that| is the big issue with this inquiry, trying to drill down into exactly what was known when and what was done about it, in essence. i think we heard some interesting insight. they talked about tensions between

sir patrick vallance and sir chris whitty, who was also then chief medical officer, they came as a bit of a double act at the time, didn't they? watch them in the press conferences every night where they explain the data and the science and produced politicians to explain why decisions are being made. we heard today there were tensions because the chief medical officer came from a more public health perspective, in other words was a bit more reticent to pull the trigger on some of those restrictions because he saw that there would be adverse effects on there would be adverse effects on the like of people's mental health, loneliness, and other health impacts and that sort of thing. i think that is part of the relationship we have not heard about before, but sir patrick vallance said it was good to work together because in essence they came from different perspectives and were able to bash out exactly what needed to be done.

and we heard plenty about if those decisions had been taken earlier, could there have been decisions had been taken earlier, could there have been a decisions had been taken earlier, could there have been a different outcome, could lockdown have been less restrictive, needed far less time. let me bring in our political correspondent. she was listening with me, in there. they are side to send you any particle correspondence, but there is an important political overtone to this, because the government made so much at the time about following that science. absolutely, this was an insight into those few months leading up to that first lockdown and how it came about. this was very much what we have learned, what was happening between the scientists at the time. there has been little mention of ministers, although those cobra meetings we are advice was given to ministers. one of the interesting

thing is we have heard this morning