advised that practically you advised that practically speaking significant border measures, putting aside the issues about— measures, putting aside the issues about trade and commerce and flow of personnel, _ about trade and commerce and flow of personnel, and the political combinations, a stringent process would _ combinations, a stringent process would be — combinations, a stringent process would be unlikely to achieve much other_ would be unlikely to achieve much other than— would be unlikely to achieve much other than a delay to be measured in days in_ other than a delay to be measured in days in the _ other than a delay to be measured in days in the event of the emergence of the _ days in the event of the emergence of the virus — days in the event of the emergence of the virus question that was a technical— of the virus question that was a technicaljudgment and i wanted to check— technicaljudgment and i wanted to check that other people who technicaljudgment and i wanted to check that other people— check that other people who have different experience _ check that other people who have different experience in _ check that other people who have different experience in this - check that other people who have different experience in this area | different experience in this area were able to challenge if they thought that this first view was incorrect and i did not want it to be the last word. i was worried i would ask for an opinion and then be sure that others had a chance to disagree if they felt my opinion and my provisional opinion was wrong. taste my provisional opinion was wrong. we can deal with the board speedily because — can deal with the board speedily because in terms of the merits of

border— because in terms of the merits of border measures, evidence has been received _ border measures, evidence has been received by— border measures, evidence has been received by the inquiry to the fact that less — received by the inquiry to the fact that less stringent measures like screening — that less stringent measures like screening and leaflets and temperature checks are unlikely to work because they can be circumnavigated. practical difficulties with any border system of restriction. scientifically, there — of restriction. scientifically, there was no support for complete trorder_ there was no support for complete border closure or quarantine because they are _ border closure or quarantine because they are very difficult to maintain and politically divisive and also unlikely— and politically divisive and also unlikely to work?— and politically divisive and also unlikely to work? yes, in a sense the technical _ unlikely to work? yes, in a sense the technicaljudgments, - unlikely to work? yes, in a sense the technicaljudgments, there . unlikely to work? yes, in a sense l the technicaljudgments, there was no ebbs —— evidence and subsequently they were wrong, but if i were to rerun this period again and it is important to be reflective, the

thing which we did not consider enough was, should we be asking people coming back from china to self quarantine irrespective of symptoms before 10—14 days? we were meaning to do so on the basis of symptoms. as it turns out this would not have made any difference, and as you have got evidence from others, the importations happening were mainly from our neighbours are not directly from china.— directly from china. largely in half term? in practice _ directly from china. largely in half term? in practice it _ directly from china. largely in half term? in practice it would - directly from china. largely in half term? in practice it would have . directly from china. largely in half i term? in practice it would have made no difference- — term? in practice it would have made no difference. all _ term? in practice it would have made no difference. all i'm _ term? in practice it would have made no difference. all i'm saying - term? in practice it would have made no difference. all i'm saying is, - term? in practice it would have made no difference. all i'm saying is, in - no difference. all i'm saying is, in many areas hindsight has led people to take unduly harsh views about what should have been done, and this is an area where we should have done something different, even though it probably would not have made much difference, but in terms of, what is our future doctrine, this difference, but in terms of, what is ourfuture doctrine, this is difference, but in terms of, what is our future doctrine, this is an area we should examine. that is not the same as stopping flights and

screening, both of which have very profound difficulties. this is a rather different approach. but the oint is it rather different approach. but the point is it was _ rather different approach. but the point is it was already _ rather different approach. but the point is it was already understood i point is it was already understood by the _ point is it was already understood by the 28th ofjanuary point is it was already understood by the 28th of january that point is it was already understood by the 28th ofjanuary that at the sage _ by the 28th ofjanuary that at the sage meeting or shortly thereafter, in ternrs _ sage meeting or shortly thereafter, in ternrs of— sage meeting or shortly thereafter, in terms of efficacy, border measures were unlikely to work or 'ust measures were unlikely to work or just impossible for a variety of reasons — just impossible for a variety of reasons i— just impossible for a variety of reasons. ., ., , . ., reasons. i want to be clear, if unilateral _ reasons. i want to be clear, if unilateral border _ reasons. i want to be clear, if unilateral border measures i reasons. i want to be clear, if| unilateral border measures by reasons. i want to be clear, if - unilateral border measures by the uk, we were all confident it would have minimal effects, and had china chosen to close its borders right at the beginning, it is difficult to tell what would have happened and i could have led to a different situation but in terms of the decisions of the uk had sovereignty over, that was the situation. i’m over, that was the situation. i'm not concerned _ over, that was the situation. i'm not concerned with what china might have done _ not concerned with what china might have done because coming back to the 28th of— have done because coming back to the 28th ofjanuary and the paragraph on pa-e 28th ofjanuary and the paragraph on page three, i was asking you, what

in practice — page three, i was asking you, what in practice did sage or you envisage hmg's _ in practice did sage or you envisage hmg's approach to mean? you said lrorders_ hmg's approach to mean? you said borders is— hmg's approach to mean? you said borders is one issue. public health measures — borders is one issue. public health measures. but borders bluntly, was never— measures. but borders bluntly, was never a _ measures. but borders bluntly, was never a runner, the closure of borders, — never a runner, the closure of borders, and that was appreciated by that date? _ borders, and that was appreciated by that date? i— borders, and that was appreciated by that date? ., ., ., ., ., that date? i am going to add a caution to _ that date? i am going to add a caution to this. _ that date? i am going to add a caution to this. one _ that date? i am going to add a caution to this. one of - that date? i am going to add a caution to this. one of the - that date? i am going to add a i caution to this. one of the other things which is important in borders is the maintenance of public confidence which is not a public health issue, but there have been examples where borders have been closed for that reason and that was a reasonable political decision so it is important, i want to be clear, it is important, i want to be clear, it is important, i want to be clear, it is an example, slightly counterintuitive, where the political choice might be to go further than the public health advice necessarily with lead. mr; advice necessarily with lead. my question was predicated upon your description in paragraph four of

that e—mail, that the priority was to prevent — that e—mail, that the priority was to prevent transmission in the uk, so we _ to prevent transmission in the uk, so we are — to prevent transmission in the uk, so we are only concerned with nreasures— so we are only concerned with measures that could be taken by the uk government. i ask you again, what other— uk government. i ask you again, what other practical measures were in mind _ other practical measures were in mind at— other practical measures were in mind at the end ofjanuary, at the beginning — mind at the end ofjanuary, at the beginning of february, other than borders, — beginning of february, other than borders, which would have been reflective — borders, which would have been reflective of the change in hmg's approach. — reflective of the change in hmg's approach, sage envisage would be brought— approach, sage envisage would be brought about by the triggers being triggered? what in practice was available? what could be done? we. should available? what could be done? should have available? what could be done? - should have taken, there are several things we could have done, none of which would have made a lot of difference in reality, but i think this is an area where in my view, government should have started not necessarily that day, but within the

next week, and i will come back to where i think we had an opportunity and did not go there, to start seeing this as a massive threat to the whole of the uk, economic and social as well as medical. as indeed transpired. that really is the question which this should trigger but the problem we would have and this will repeatedly be the case, is the point at which you can make these comments in sage, we did not have any cases in the uk at this stage, the 30th of january, that we knew of top the first case was published on knew of top the first case was ublished ., g; :: ., g ., ., , published on the 30th of january, the person _ published on the 30th of january, the person in _ published on the 30th of january, the person in your? _ published on the 30th of january, the person in your? yes, - published on the 30th of january, the person in your? yes, women| published on the 30th of january, i the person in your? yes, women get to this point — the person in your? yes, women get to this point the _ the person in your? yes, women get to this point the numbers _ the person in your? yes, women get to this point the numbers -- - the person in your? yes, women get to this point the numbers -- when . the person in your? yes, women getl to this point the numbers -- when we to this point the numbers —— when we get to this point we start to take off but the numbers are very small.

and so whether you could get political movement based on those extremely small numbers, i think it's an interesting question that we will never know the answer to but what i am saying is, we should not assume that even have the triggers being met, action would necessarily have flowed. but it is important to note that this is notjust a health problem if it happens, this is clearly going to be a societal problem that needs to be escalated across government. lath? problem that needs to be escalated across government.— problem that needs to be escalated across government. why did sage and ourself and across government. why did sage and yourself and other _ across government. why did sage and yourself and other scientific _ yourself and other scientific advisers _ yourself and other scientific advisers in government not shout out bevond _ advisers in government not shout out beyond the _ advisers in government not shout out beyond the extent to which you did, that there _ beyond the extent to which you did, that there was in fact a massive threat _ that there was in fact a massive threat and — that there was in fact a massive threat and it was massive because the practical means of making sure control— the practical means of making sure control or— the practical means of making sure control or keeping the virus away from _ control or keeping the virus away from our— control or keeping the virus away from our shores, was effectively

absent? — from our shores, was effectively absent? if— from our shores, was effectively absent? if you are allow me to finish — absent? if you are allow me to finish the _ absent? if you are allow me to finish the question, and the data was already clear that there were sustained — was already clear that there were sustained human—to—human transmission with chains of transmission. it is a massive threat because _ transmission. it is a massive threat because there was a massive problem and you _ because there was a massive problem and you were aware that there was a massive _ and you were aware that there was a massive threat. why wasn't the government where? its massive threat. why wasn't the government where?— massive threat. why wasn't the government where? as you will see over the next _ government where? as you will see over the next couple _ government where? as you will see over the next couple of— government where? as you will see over the next couple of days, - government where? as you will see over the next couple of days, of - government where? as you will see over the next couple of days, of myj over the next couple of days, of my statement which lays it out reasonably clearly, over the next few days we briefed national security officials, cobra met and i briefed the prime minister directly, and parliamentarians, briefed the opposition, this is all over the newspapers, so the idea that government was unaware of this because they have not read this paragraph in sage is a little unfair. it was very clear that we were escalating at a high level in

government. these are things you would not do under ordinary circumstances. ihlo would not do under ordinary circumstances.— would not do under ordinary circumstances. ., ., , , , circumstances. no one is suggesting that the government _ circumstances. no one is suggesting that the government should - circumstances. no one is suggesting that the government should have . circumstances. no one is suggesting i that the government should have been aware _ that the government should have been aware of— that the government should have been aware of that particular paragraph but l'm _ aware of that particular paragraph but i'm referring to your own answer which _ but i'm referring to your own answer which is _ but i'm referring to your own answer which is that — but i'm referring to your own answer which is that perhaps the nature of the massive threat was not understood or called out clearly enough — understood or called out clearly enough or appreciated perhaps by those _ enough or appreciated perhaps by those who needed to understand it? you obviously called for a precautionary sage and there were multiple _ precautionary sage and there were multiple meetings of sage and cobra. the prime _ multiple meetings of sage and cobra. the prime minister in meetings, and cabinet. _ the prime minister in meetings, and cabinet. and — the prime minister in meetings, and cabinet, and so on, in february. but nowhere _ cabinet, and so on, in february. but nowhere beyond the debate about the need for _ nowhere beyond the debate about the need for plans and the need for modelling in sage and the need for a proper— modelling in sage and the need for a proper understanding of the position as any— proper understanding of the position as any part _ proper understanding of the position as any part of the government openly say there _ as any part of the government openly say there is— as any part of the government openly say there is a massive threat and we

are woefully— say there is a massive threat and we are woefully under prepared for it and something must be done at the very highest level and with real urgencv, — very highest level and with real urgency, that that tanner appears to be missing — urgency, that that tanner appears to be missing. from that material —— that that _ be missing. from that material —— that that tone appears to be missing _ that that tone appears to be missing. it that that tone appears to be missin: . , that that tone appears to be missinu. , ., , ., missing. it might be more usefulto no throu~h missing. it might be more usefulto go through in _ missing. it might be more usefulto go through in the _ missing. it might be more usefulto go through in the next _ missing. it might be more usefulto go through in the next few - missing. it might be more usefulto go through in the next few days, i go through in the next few days, because it lays out how we escalated this right to the top of government, andindeed this right to the top of government, and indeed more widely, notjust a governing party, and your point is right but therefore we did something... right but therefore we did something. . ._ right but therefore we did somethin: . .. ., ,., , something... you did something but wh was something... you did something but why was the — something... you did something but why was the degree _ something... you did something but why was the degree of _ something... you did something but why was the degree of the _ something... you did something but why was the degree of the threat, i something... you did something butj why was the degree of the threat, of the problem, the massive nature of the problem, the massive nature of the threat, — the problem, the massive nature of the threat, seemingly fully understood? you escalated the problems and pulled every lever open to you _ problems and pulled every lever open to you in _ problems and pulled every lever open to you in terms of the government process _ to you in terms of the government process lt— to you in terms of the government rocess. , , , ., to you in terms of the government rocess. , , y ., ~ process. it depends whether you like to have the discussion _ process. it depends whether you like to have the discussion now _ process. it depends whether you like to have the discussion now or- to have the discussion now or through the next few days and then i can try to retrospectively say where i think we could have probably gone

in different directions, if our doctrine within government was definite, was better in this area. 0k. definite, was better in this area. ok. we will look at those documents as you _ ok. we will look at those documents as you know— ok. we will look at those documents as you know well. we ok. we will look at those documents as you know well.— as you know well. we can do it now if ou as you know well. we can do it now if you prefer- _ as you know well. we can do it now if you prefer- l— as you know well. we can do it now if you prefer. i think— as you know well. we can do it now if you prefer. i think it _ as you know well. we can do it now if you prefer. i think it works - if you prefer. i think it works better if we see some of the actions we actually did take rather than the ones you are not allowing me to move ones you are not allowing me to move on to. ., , , ones you are not allowing me to move onto. ., , ., on to. professor, we will be moving onto them — on to. professor, we will be moving onto them and _ on to. professor, we will be moving onto them and i _ on to. professor, we will be moving onto them and i am _ on to. professor, we will be moving onto them and i am allowing - on to. professor, we will be moving onto them and i am allowing you i on to. professor, we will be moving onto them and i am allowing you to j onto them and i am allowing you to move _ onto them and i am allowing you to move on— onto them and i am allowing you to move on to — onto them and i am allowing you to move on to them. by the end of january. — move on to them. by the end of january. in— move on to them. by the end of january, in addition to the material we debated, it is obvious there were cases— we debated, it is obvious there were cases in— we debated, it is obvious there were cases in thailand, japan, south korea, — cases in thailand, japan, south korea, germany, and there was a lancet— korea, germany, and there was a lancet article which made plain the nature _ lancet article which made plain the nature of— lancet article which made plain the nature of the human—to—human transmission. so, on the 2nd of february. — transmission. so, on the 2nd of february, you were e—mailed by

professor— february, you were e—mailed by professor ferguson who gave you a cent to _ professor ferguson who gave you a cent to estimate of the fatality rate -- — cent to estimate of the fatality rate —— central estimate. is that right? _ rate -- central estimate. is that riuht? , rate -- central estimate. is that right?- what _ rate -- central estimate. is that right?- what did _ rate —— central estimate. is that right? yes. what did that tell you about the right? yes what did that tell you about the morbidity amongst identified cases? all about the morbidity amongst identified cases?— identified cases? all of them triangulated _ identified cases? all of them triangulated around - identified cases? all of them i triangulated around somewhere between i% and li% mortality, in cases that had been found, but with a very heavy health warning that calculating mortality rates early on in the pandemic when you don't have the ability to detect minimal or asymptomatic cases, it is fraught with technical difficulties. i think everyone thought there was a wide range around these estimates, so no single one of them in my view you get and think, that is it. it was a while before we were confident but

the ballpark was quite right actually and if you look back at these numbers, i think they were pretty good, actually. three weeks into a completely new to the world disease, relatively few of the numbers had moved much since. so thatis, numbers had moved much since. so that is, the technical response was in that sense impressive.— that is, the technical response was in that sense impressive. when you sa since, in that sense impressive. when you say since. you _ in that sense impressive. when you say since, you mean _ in that sense impressive. when you say since, you mean by— in that sense impressive. when you say since, you mean by the - in that sense impressive. when you say since, you mean by the end i in that sense impressive. when you say since, you mean by the end of i say since, you mean by the end of january? _ say since, you mean by the end of janua ? ., ., ., january? no, i mean untilwe get to omicron. january? no, i mean untilwe get to omicron- we _ january? no, i mean untilwe get to omicron. we misunderstand - january? no, i mean untilwe get to omicron. we misunderstand each i omicron. we misunderstand each other. at what _ omicron. we misunderstand each other. at what point _ omicron. we misunderstand each other. at what point where - omicron. we misunderstand each other. at what point where the i other. at what point where the majority — other. at what point where the majority of these figures available which _ majority of these figures available which have proved to be broadly correct — which have proved to be broadly correct in — which have proved to be broadly correct in the fullness of time? if correct in the fullness of time? if you correct in the fullness of time? you look at correct in the fullness of time? if you look at the e—mail we just discussed, none of the figures i put in that have actually substantially moved since the time i made them, and these were not my numbers, i was reporting the excellent work of

other scientists. reporting the excellent work of otherscientists. but reporting the excellent work of other scientists. but we had already settled, actually, as it narrow, we have still ended up in a pretty similar central position which is a great tribute to scientists. so similar central position which is a great tribute to scientists.- great tribute to scientists. so we ma be great tribute to scientists. so we may be clear _ great tribute to scientists. so we may be clear about _ great tribute to scientists. so we may be clear about the - great tribute to scientists. so we i may be clear about the information available _ may be clear about the information available to you, like the reproduction number, the doubling time and _ reproduction number, the doubling time and the incubation period, case fatality— time and the incubation period, case fatality rates, that kind of thing. some _ fatality rates, that kind of thing. some of— fatality rates, that kind of thing. some of those are probably intrinsic to the virus, so things like the incubation period, things like doubling time and the effective reproduction number, they will vary over time, and depending on other factors, including mpi, which we will no doubt come onto. so they are not fixed but some of those were pretty reasonable as a first pass.

there was a safe the fourth of, we will have _ there was a safe the fourth of, we will have that up briefly. sage noted — will have that up briefly. sage noted on — will have that up briefly. sage noted on the page three, paragraph 19. noted on the page three, paragraph 19 -- _ noted on the page three, paragraph 19 -- there — noted on the page three, paragraph 19. —— there was a sage meeting on the 24th _ 19. —— there was a sage meeting on the 24th a— 19. —— there was a sage meeting on the 24th. a systematic transmission cannot— the 24th. a systematic transmission cannot be _ the 24th. a systematic transmission cannot be ruled out, it was noted, and transmission from mildly symptomatic individuals is likely. insofar _ symptomatic individuals is likely. lnsofar as— symptomatic individuals is likely. insofar as sage was unable to rule out a _ insofar as sage was unable to rule out a cinematic transmission, but it is in existence was that ruled out? just to— is in existence was that ruled out? just to be — is in existence was that ruled out? just to be clear, asymptomatic transmission of the symptom of a cinematic— transmission of the symptom of a cinematic transmission is quite different— cinematic transmission is quite different on the issue of human—to—human transmission that we were debating earlier. yes, human-to-human transmission that we were debating earlier.— were debating earlier. yes, is different again _ were debating earlier. yes, is different again from - were debating earlier. yes, is i different again from asymptomatic infection where somebody catches the disease, has no symptoms, and does

not pass it