that we are, officials. eeg we are, officials. and then, that we are, officials. and then, under page _ we are, officials. and then, under page five. — we are, officials. and then, under page five. i— we are, officials. and then, under page five, i am mindful therefore, professor. — page five, i am mindful therefore, professor, that this is the 18th of february. — professor, that this is the 18th of february, so sometime has wound on since _ february, so sometime has wound on since the _ february, so sometime has wound on since the beginning of february and the stock—take meeting on the fourth of. the stock—take meeting on the fourth of -- _ the stock—take meeting on the fourth of -- fourth— the stock—take meeting on the fourth of. —— fourth february. so, could we have _ of. —— fourth february. so, could we have a _ of. —— fourth february. so, could we have a different page. paragraph 17. the chair— have a different page. paragraph 17. the chair invited the director of the civil— the chair invited the director of the civil contingency secretariat to - ive the civil contingency secretariat to give an _ the civil contingency secretariat to give an update on the planning for the reasonable worst case scenario, so there _ the reasonable worst case scenario, so there is_ the reasonable worst case scenario, so there is when it appears first, but the — so there is when it appears first, but the director of the civil contingencies secretary and said there _ contingencies secretary and said there would be work to be done, to create _ there would be work to be done, to create a _ there would be work to be done, to create a clear plan of activity across — create a clear plan of activity across the uk government, from the moment— across the uk government, from the momenta _ across the uk government, from the moment a sustained transmission, of course, _ moment a sustained transmission, of course, there — moment a sustained transmission, of course, there was already on there had been _ course, there was already on there had been for weeks, course, there was already on there had been forweeks, sustained transmission, to its ad estimated peak. _ transmission, to its ad estimated peak, likely to be a period of three months. _ peak, likely to be a period of three months. were you concerned, mindful

of what _ months. were you concerned, mindful of what you _ months. were you concerned, mindful of what you had said at the stock—take meeting about the need to plan stock—take meeting about the need to ptah for— stock—take meeting about the need to plan for this massive threat, that try plan for this massive threat, that by this— plan for this massive threat, that by this date, the 8th of february, the director of the body required to produce _ the director of the body required to produce central government plans were still— produce central government plans were still working about work to be done _ were still working about work to be done to— were still working about work to be done to create a plan of activity across — done to create a plan of activity across government. | done to create a plan of activity across government.— done to create a plan of activity across government. i think it was reasonable _ across government. i think it was reasonable that _ across government. i think it was reasonable that this _ across government. i think it was reasonable that this work - across government. i think it was reasonable that this work was - reasonable that this work was continuing, but if this was at the work or expense of other work, as you have implied, i think that was not a sensible use of time. around this time, and this is just to give an idea of what is happening in parallel, you can see debates between me and others, where my firm, certainly, —— my surname, was to bring the number below one. that was a different strand of work, and i think that takes on a different direction. . i think that takes on a different direction. , ., ,., direction. yes. that point, professor. _ direction. yes. that point, professor, is _ direction. yes. that point, professor, is this, - direction. yes. that point, professor, is this, that - direction. yes. that point, i professor, is this, that when direction. yes. that point, - professor, is this, that when it became — professor, is this, that when it became clear, having become clear,

that there _ became clear, having become clear, that there was sustained transmission in the united kingdom, and that— transmission in the united kingdom, and that containment had bite necessary inference, failed, what you advocated was a delay in the upswing — you advocated was a delay in the upswing of the overarching first pandemic wave.— upswing of the overarching first pandemic wave. that is correct. althou . h pandemic wave. that is correct. although to _ pandemic wave. that is correct. although to be _ pandemic wave. that is correct. although to be clear, _ pandemic wave. that is correct. although to be clear, that - pandemic wave. that is correct. although to be clear, that was i pandemic wave. that is correct. i although to be clear, that was not clear that that had happened at that point in time. ijust wanted to make sure we separated those in time, that was later. the sure we separated those in time, that was later.— that was later. the strategy that they should _ that was later. the strategy that they should be _ that was later. the strategy that they should be a _ that was later. the strategy that they should be a delay _ that was later. the strategy that they should be a delay in - that was later. the strategy that they should be a delay in the - they should be a delay in the upswing. _ they should be a delay in the upswing, which some people have called _ upswing, which some people have called a _ upswing, which some people have called a mitigation strategy, as opposed — called a mitigation strategy, as opposed to suppression, but there is a huge _ opposed to suppression, but there is a huge debate to be had about delayihg — a huge debate to be had about delaying a wave, squashing the peak, sguashihg _ delaying a wave, squashing the peak, squashing the sombreros, just a form of suppression, and we're not going to go— of suppression, and we're not going to go that _ of suppression, and we're not going to go that debate. | of suppression, and we're not going to go that debate.—

to go that debate. i can give you a lona to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... _ to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... !_ to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... ! that _ to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... ! that is _ to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... ! that is in - to go that debate. i can give you a long answer... ! that is in part, i long answer... ! that is in part, while we _ long answer... ! that is in part, while we are — long answer... ! that is in part, while we are not _ long answer... ! that is in part, while we are not going - long answer... ! that is in part, while we are not going to - long answer... ! that is in part, while we are not going to go . long answer... ! that is in part, l while we are not going to go into that debate. —— why. set in at the end of— that debate. —— why. set in at the end of february and the beginning of march. _ end of february and the beginning of march. it— end of february and the beginning of march, it was apparent to you that mearrs— march, it was apparent to you that means of— march, it was apparent to you that means of control having failed, the virus _ means of control having failed, the virus was _ means of control having failed, the virus was here, it is transmitting throughout— virus was here, it is transmitting throughout the community. we now know. _ throughout the community. we now know. of— throughout the community. we now know, of course, there were hundreds if not _ know, of course, there were hundreds if not thousands of seedings during every— if not thousands of seedings during every half—time, from italy, france and spain. — every half—time, from italy, france and spain. -- — every half—time, from italy, france and spain. —— during half term. that seemed _ and spain. —— during half term. that seemed to _ and spain. —— during half term. that seemed to be — and spain. —— during half term. that seemed to be the appropriate response for you. to delay the upswing — response for you. to delay the upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think thins upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think things that _ upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think things that delay _ upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think things that delay the _ upswing of the pandemic wave? yes, i think things that delay the wave - upswing of the pandemic wave? .;e:3 i think things that delay the wave and pull the number below one for practical purposes, once you have lost control of the same things come initially. ijust introduce a public health concept which i think is useful for this, health concept which i think is usefulfor this, which is the ladder of intervention? we start at the things that have the lowest in the sense, negative impact, and to

escalate up, so you would start with, take this example, washing your hands, and etiquette, you move up your hands, and etiquette, you move up through isolation cases, up to really quite intensive things like closing the school, and as .com in a place that i don't think we really would have anticipated, using the full force of the law to insist on people staying at home. that escalation that the idea of that was that you escalate up, as you need to, and in things that are more and more onerous, or moan —— more and more onerous, oi’ moan —— more and more onerous, or moan —— more and more interrupting of people's normal life, economic and social, as you get further and further into trouble, basically. i'm not saying thatis trouble, basically. i'm not saying that is exactly what we're doing here, but concept was part of what many people tried to think through at this stage. find many people tried to think through at this stage-— many people tried to think through at this stage. and to be clear about when it became _ at this stage. and to be clear about when it became apparent _ at this stage. and to be clear about when it became apparent to - at this stage. and to be clear about when it became apparent to you . at this stage. and to be clear about. when it became apparent to you that steps _ when it became apparent to you that steps might need to be taken to delay— steps might need to be taken to delay the — steps might need to be taken to delay the upswing of an epidemic, as opposed _ delay the upswing of an epidemic, as opposed to _ delay the upswing of an epidemic, as opposed to suppressing it entirely, you had _ opposed to suppressing it entirely,

you had irr— opposed to suppressing it entirely, you had in fact started raising this issue _ you had in fact started raising this issue as _ you had in fact started raising this issue as soon as the end ofjanuary, because _ issue as soon as the end ofjanuary, because you — issue as soon as the end ofjanuary, because you e—mailed professor ferguson — because you e—mailed professor ferguson asking for his views as to what _ ferguson asking for his views as to what could — ferguson asking for his views as to what could be done for delaying the upswing? _ what could be done for delaying the u swin: ? . what could be done for delaying the u swin: ? , ., , what could be done for delaying the uswinu? , ., , . , what could be done for delaying the uswinu? , ., , ., i. , upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that — upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we _ upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need _ upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need to _ upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need to find - upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need to find out - upswing? yes, from very early on, my view was that we need to find out a i view was that we need to find out a group of things that will get the number below one, if possible. and the chinese had demonstrated it was possible. so then the question was can you do it in a way that is sustainable and sustainability was my other big concern here. can we come back — my other big concern here. can we come back to _ my other big concern here. can we come back to sustainability? - my other big concern here. can we come back to sustainability? is - my other big concern here. can we come back to sustainability? is a l come back to sustainability? is a subject— come back to sustainability? is a subject its— come back to sustainability? is a subject its own. being aware that the chinese had applied locked arms and it— the chinese had applied locked arms and it had _ the chinese had applied locked arms and it had worked, that was the general— and it had worked, that was the general understanding by the end of february. _ general understanding by the end of february, the united kingdom, why, as you _ february, the united kingdom, why, as you develop the strategy of delaying the upswing of the wave all squashing their levels, squashing the sombrero, did you rule out a complete — the sombrero, did you rule out a complete suppression strategy? what was it— complete suppression strategy? what was it because of the rest of the

uhcoited — was it because of the rest of the uncoiled second wave, or, for some other— uncoiled second wave, or, for some other reason?— other reason? yes, i think some of the output — other reason? yes, i think some of the output of _ other reason? yes, i think some of the output of some _ other reason? yes, i think some of the output of some of— other reason? yes, i think some of the output of some of the - other reason? yes, i think some of. the output of some of the modelling is slightly misleading, in my view, it implies that you have a completely unmitigated fast way, and then a completely unmitigated second wave, which makes no logical sense. ultimately, i think humans cannot do think more precisely than they can, rather than over complicating, but my view with epidemics as they are either doubling or halving. the idea that you can somehow hold something at an hour of one, it strikes me as fanciful. you either beloved —— above one or below one. if you are above one or below one. if you are above when it will carry on exponentially. you can delay it, but delay does not necessarily imply that you will get our below one. you could just reduce our, and therefore just push out the number of days it is doubling. —— r. sorry i'm giving

you a technical number, but it is worth... he could not get r below one. those two are incompatible. the only way to get an epidemic way to turn over is to get r below one. in reality. turn over is to get r below one. in reali . ., , ., , reality. the reality that inquiry has had a _ reality. the reality that inquiry has had a great _ reality. the reality that inquiry has had a great deal _ reality. the reality that inquiry has had a great deal of - reality. the reality that inquiry i has had a great deal of evidence reality. the reality that inquiry - has had a great deal of evidence of needing _ has had a great deal of evidence of needing to — has had a great deal of evidence of needing to get the reproduction number— needing to get the reproduction number below one, but why then... how did _ number below one, but why then... how did this — number below one, but why then... how did this whole debate... and we have had _ how did this whole debate... and we have had it _ how did this whole debate... and we have had it reflected in witness evidence. — have had it reflected in witness evidence, in the press, the statement of david halpin, of the behavioural insights team come in at downing _ behavioural insights team come in at downing street, did this notion of, or the _ downing street, did this notion of, or the belief of, that you and your colleagues, were flattening the curve. — colleagues, were flattening the curve, delaying the peak, rather than— curve, delaying the peak, rather than focusing on bringing r below one, than focusing on bringing r below

one. which— than focusing on bringing r below one, which epidemiology —— epidemiologically, is what you are aiming _ epidemiologically, is what you are aiming to— epidemiologically, is what you are aiming to do... there is lots of debate — aiming to do... there is lots of debate of— aiming to do... there is lots of debate of whether you are actually suppressing it, but what was the genesis— suppressing it, but what was the genesis of— suppressing it, but what was the genesis of all of that? so, ultimately. _ genesis of all of that? so, ultimately, my _ genesis of all of that? so, ultimately, my view - genesis of all of that? so, ultimately, my view was l genesis of all of that? sr ultimately, my view was quite a genesis of all of that? sr3, ultimately, my view was quite a lot of rather fanciful discussion occurred, including between people who did not come in my view, fully grasp the technical aspects they were talking about, if i'm a plant, which led to a confused public debate. that applies to a number of debates, there were a number of others. —— blunt. on several occasions, as you have properly had the privilege of reading, my documents, compared to other people's whatsappedwhatsapps. i think they are confusing, rather than in lightening the public. —— whatsapps. lots of people like to

talk, so i think it is a confusion, some of it stemmed from it, and actual strategic lack of knowledge being a dangerous thing. in actual strategic lack of knowledge being a dangerous thing. in terms of strate: , being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy. you — being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy. you have — being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy, you have referred - being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy, you have referred to - being a dangerous thing. in terms of strategy, you have referred to the i strategy, you have referred to the coronavirus— strategy, you have referred to the coronavirus action plan a 3rd of march. — coronavirus action plan a 3rd of march. can— coronavirus action plan a 3rd of march, can we have that? 57508. this was published, as you know, the 3rd of march. _ was published, as you know, the 3rd of march, and she provided comments on multiple _ of march, and she provided comments on multiple iterations of this according to your statement, and no doubt. _ according to your statement, and no doubt. it— according to your statement, and no doubt, it reflected your views on the clinical— doubt, it reflected your views on the clinical and public health matters. _ the clinical and public health matters. why was this plan to the extent— matters. why was this plan to the extent that it still is, as you said. — extent that it still is, as you said. with _ extent that it still is, as you said, with clinical public health matters. — said, with clinical public health matters, not put before sage? do you know? it is a — matters, not put before sage? do you know? it is a policy document, - matters, not put before sage? do you know? it is a policy document, so - matters, not put before sage? do you know? it is a policy document, so we i know? it is a policy document, so we put all policy documents before sage, they would have had a more difficultjob. essentially, it has three components, for complainers,

sorry, three of which i think i reasonably thought through, for this, but one of which, for practical purposes, was almost irrelevant by the time it arrived. contain, delay, mitigate, research. slow down, professor. a tactical points made under those three components which had been thought through, reasonably, in my view, were ok, for a document at this quite high level, that, admirably, there was an attempt to make this a four nations documents, but by the time you have got something all of government, and in four nations, it is not an overnight process. and the contain stage of things was near or at its end, pretty well at the point that this document hit the printing presses. that is just a practical reality. presses. that is 'ust a practical reali . ., ., ,'~, ' presses. that is 'ust a practical reali . ., ., .,

reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten sa s this, reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this. if _ reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this. if it _ reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this, if it does _ reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this, if it does take _ reality. paragraph 3.9 on page ten says this, if it does take hold, - says this, if it does take hold, towering — says this, if it does take hold, lowering the peak impact of pushing it away— lowering the peak impact of pushing it away from the winter season, so there _ it away from the winter season, so there is— it away from the winter season, so there is a — it away from the winter season, so there is a reference to the peak, so that refers— there is a reference to the peak, so that refers to our earlier debate, but surely. — that refers to our earlier debate, but surely, is the chief medical officer. — but surely, is the chief medical officer, you must have had a view on the publication of a document on the 3rd of— the publication of a document on the 3rd of march, commissioned in the first week— 3rd of march, commissioned in the first week in — 3rd of march, commissioned in the first week in february on the 10th of february, in fact, but the secretary— of february, in fact, but the secretary of state... which... and it was— secretary of state... which... and it was the — secretary of state... which... and it was the sole document published by the _ it was the sole document published by the british government... it was out of— by the british government... it was out of date — by the british government... it was out of date by the time it was published. out of date by the time it was published-— published. going back to the revious published. going back to the previous discussion, - published. going back to the previous discussion, once i published. going back to the | previous discussion, once you published. going back to the - previous discussion, once you are in an exponential code, you get out of date remarkably quickly. —— curve. you have repeatedly said, we the government, weak, weak, weak. you knew— government, weak, weak, weak. you knew that _ government, weak, weak, weak. you knew that sage had not been consulted on this. you had drafted

many— consulted on this. you had drafted many times on this document. —— we. you could _ many times on this document. —— we. you could not— many times on this document. —— we. you could not have been unaware of the fact _ you could not have been unaware of the fact that this sole strategy document was out of date with the date of _ document was out of date with the date of publication. you, more than anybody— date of publication. you, more than anybody knew that containment had been lost _ anybody knew that containment had been lost weeks before. know anybody knew that containment had been lost weeks before.— been lost weeks before. know i disauree been lost weeks before. know i disagree that _ been lost weeks before. know i disagree that containment - been lost weeks before. know i disagree that containment had | been lost weeks before. know i - disagree that containment had been lost weeks before. i think it was close to the point where you had to abandon it. around this time. but we can come back to that if you want. it was not weeks before. the problem with this document is, essentially, it does nothing wrong with a document but it was too late. if it was for published when it was first conceived, as i recall it, it would have been much more in date, that this is one of the problems of trying to develop these kind of documents during an extensional rise. that isjust documents during an extensional rise. that is just a reality. documents during an extensional rise. that isjust a reality. and documents during an extensional rise. that isjust a reality. rise. that is 'ust a reality. and no doubt you — rise. that isjust a reality. and no doubt you will — rise. that isjust a reality. and no doubt you will regret _ rise. that isjust a reality. and no doubt you will regret that - rise. that isjust a reality. and no doubt you will regret that this - doubt you will regret that this document was published at all, given

that it _ document was published at all, given that it was _ document was published at all, given that it was out of date. it document was published at all, given that it was out of date.— that it was out of date. it was either that — that it was out of date. it was either that or _ that it was out of date. it was either that or no _ that it was out of date. it was either that or no documents, | either that or no documents, referring to your previous points. you cannot seek to sustain the only document— you cannot seek to sustain the only document published by the uk government, that you knew, to a certain— government, that you knew, to a certain knowledge had been out of date in _ certain knowledge had been out of date in relation to its first and important _ date in relation to its first and important eject plan, contain. —— strategic— important eject plan, contain. —— strategic plan. important eject plan, contain. -- strategic plan-— important eject plan, contain. -- strategic plan. there may well be a time when the _ strategic plan. there may well be a time when the (mo _ strategic plan. there may well be a time when the (mo is _ strategic plan. there may well be a time when the (mo is given - strategic plan. there may well be a time when the (mo is given plansl strategic plan. there may well be a l time when the (mo is given plans to time when the cmo is given plans to run across government, but that is not this moment. i think i completely accept there are bits of this document that are out of date, there are other bits of this document i thought actually the good. not publishing any of the documents that make the problem about government... across all of government, and across all of nations, is redrafting them, every single time you have to go around everybody and say, are you content

with these changes?— everybody and say, are you content with these changes?_ i i with these changes? slowdown. i think the admirable _ with these changes? slowdown. i think the admirable aim - with these changes? slowdown. i think the admirable aim to - with these changes? slowdown. i think the admirable aim to make | with these changes? slowdown. i - think the admirable aim to make this infour think the admirable aim to make this in four nations government, i think that was admirable to itself mitigates against it being timely, given the speed at which this is going to happen. you can argue that such a document should not have existed but in a sense, i think some document is better than no document. i think in most elements this is a pretty good document. given that we had no print previous documents that anyone could look at. —— previous document. i'm going to stand behind the publication of the document without saying that i agree that every single word of it is exactly right. every single word of it is exactly ri . ht. , every single word of it is exactly riuht. , , ., ., every single word of it is exactly riuht. , ., ., ., right. did you e-mail or call anyone in government _ right. did you e-mail or call anyone in government to _ right. did you e-mail or call anyone in government to say, _ right. did you e-mail or call anyone in government to say, i _ right. did you e-mail or call anyone in government to say, ijust - right. did you e-mail or call anyone in government to say, ijust don't i in government to say, ijust don't want _ in government to say, ijust don't want to— in government to say, ijust don't want to put— in government to say, ijust don't want to put my name on a document that i_ want to put my name on a document that i know— want to put my name on a document that i know to my certain knowledge is out _ that i know to my certain knowledge is out of _ that i know to my certain knowledge is out of date in a material part? no, because ifi is out of date in a material part? no, because if i had done that, we would have virtually every single document, i'd been e—mailing on that basis. document, i'd been e-mailing on that basis. . . document, i'd been e-mailing on that basis. ., , ., , , ., .,

basis. that is not remiss of me to su: est basis. that is not remiss of me to suggest that _ basis. that is not remiss of me to suggest that that _ basis. that is not remiss of me to suggest that that is _ basis. that is not remiss of me to suggest that that is not _ basis. that is not remiss of me to suggest that that is not a - basis. that is not remiss of me to suggest that that is not a good i suggest that that is not a good reason — suggest that that is not a good reason to— suggest that that is not a good reason to not raise a problem. | reason to not raise a problem. i think reason to not raise a problem. think there reason to not raise a problem. i think there was a clamour for something for people to hold onto, evenif something for people to hold onto, even if it was out of date. contain must distill the strategy, when it was published, technically, but contain was still the strategy. what i said almost contemporaneously with this, and i know that you cannot interrogate on this, but it is all laid out for people who are not lawyers, in the house of commons, made clear that my view was that we were mainly in delay, but had some elements of contain, that was largely because that was a negotiated position, in government at this point. it would in fact have been not in line with government policy, at the point of publication and at this point, that contained was not there. you can argue whether thatis was not there. you can argue whether that is good argument or not. in practical terms, think it made not much difference. i would also point

out that at this point when he was published, the world health organization is still not declare that this was a pandemic. tote organization is still not declare that this was a pandemic. we have addressed that _ that this was a pandemic. we have addressed that issue. _ that this was a pandemic. we have addressed that issue. your - that this was a pandemic. we have addressed that issue. your own i addressed that issue. your own advice. — addressed that issue. your own advice. of— addressed that issue. your own advice, of course, simply did not rest upon — advice, of course, simply did not rest upon what the who was doing. you have _ rest upon what the who was doing. you have caused reached your own view _ you have caused reached your own view of— you have caused reached your own view of what needs to be done in the context of— view of what needs to be done in the context of the united kingdom. canl context of the united kingdom. can i live a hard context of the united kingdom. can i give a hard edged — context of the united kingdom. can i give a hard edged answer? in - context of the united kingdom. can i give a hard edged answer? in light i give a hard edged answer? in light ofthe give a hard edged answer? in light of the time... — give a hard edged answer? in light of the time. .. i've _ give a hard edged answer? in light of the time... i've asked _ give a hard edged answer? in light of the time... i've asked that i of the time... i've asked that question— of the time... i've asked that question and i think you have answered _ question and i think you have answered it... | question and i think you have answered it. . .— question and i think you have answered it... i think the secret should be _ answered it... i think the secret should be given _ answered it... i think the secret should be given the _ answered it... i think the secret should be given the opportunityj answered it... i think the secret i should be given the opportunity to say it. _ should be given the opportunity to say it. if— should be given the opportunity to say it. if t — should be given the opportunity to sa it. . . , , should be given the opportunity to sa it. , , , , ., say it. if i spent my time trying to redraft every _ say it. if i spent my time trying to redraft every document _ say it. if i spent my time trying to redraft every document i - say it. if i spent my time trying to redraft every document i have i say it. if i spent my time trying to i redraft every document i have done nothing and all of the much more important things in my view than i was supposed to be doing. and a certain point you have to say, move on. this did not strike me that would do any harm, and the opportunity cost of the time for me trying to sort out wording in across government documents did not seem to me terribly material. that is my hard edged answer.—

me terribly material. that is my hard edged answer. forgive me, you are the chief— hard edged answer. forgive me, you are the chief medical— hard edged answer. forgive me, you are the chief medical officer. - hard edged answer. forgive me, you are the chief medical officer. there l are the chief medical officer. there is only one — are the chief medical officer. there is only one of _ are the chief medical officer. there is only one of me, _ are the chief medical officer. there is only one of me, that _ are the chief medical officer. there is only one of me, that is _ are the chief medical officer. there is only one of me, that is my - are the chief medical officer. there is only one of me, that is my point! there is only one of you, but on essential— there is only one of you, but on essential issue... | there is only one of you, but on essential issue. . .— there is only one of you, but on essential issue... i think we have not his essential issue... i think we have got his answer... _ essential issue... i think we have got his answer... -- _ essential issue... i think we have got his answer... -- on - essential issue... i think we have got his answer... -- on this i essential issue... i think we have i got his answer... -- on this central issue. on — got his answer... -- on this central issue. on the _ got his answer... -- on this central issue. on the 21st _ got his answer... -- on this central issue. on the 21st of _ got his answer... -- on this central issue. on the 21st of february, i issue. on the 21st of february, there _ issue. on the 21st of february, there were _ issue. on the 21st of february, there were e—mails between yourself and professing ferguson, —— professor— and professing ferguson, —— professor ferguson. if we could look at page _ professor ferguson. if we could look at page three, briefly. you say to professor— at page three, briefly. you say to professor ferguson, and professor john edmonds, thanks for the previous— john edmonds, thanks for the previous e—mails, an event like this united _ previous e—mails, an event like this united kingdom could happen at any point. _ united kingdom could happen at any point. it— united kingdom could happen at any point. it is— united kingdom could happen at any point. it is not easy to predict when. — point. it is not easy to predict when. it— point. it is not easy to predict when, it may be very soon, in weeks, failure _ when, it may be very soon, in weeks, failure of— when, it may be very soon, in weeks, failure of contact tracing is

obviously one possible reason, but a failure _ obviously one possible reason, but a failure of _ obviously one possible reason, but a failure of people with minimal symptoms to identify the importance of choosing not to come forward, even _ of choosing not to come forward, even if _ of choosing not to come forward, even if they do, it is another. in this email. _ even if they do, it is another. in this e—mail, professor, in outline, you are _ this e—mail, professor, in outline, you are dealing with or expressing your views — you are dealing with or expressing your views as to the likelihood of the pandemic, in suing. you have described — the pandemic, in suing. you have described this as local spread in europe. — described this as local spread in europe. do you recall this e—mail? described this as local spread in europe. do you recallthis e—mail? | europe. do you recallthis e—mail? i do. europe. do you recall this e-mail? i do. there are _ europe. do you recall this e-mail? i do. there are references _ europe. do you recall this e-mail? i do. there are references in - europe. do you recall this e-mail? i do. there are references in this i do. there are references in this e-mail to _ do. there are references in this e-mail to speculative _ do. there are references in this| e-mail to speculative scenarios, e—mail to speculative scenarios, although... _ e—mail to speculative scenarios, although... on the bottom line. however. — although... on the bottom line. however, i'm not convinced that presenting — however, i'm not convinced that presenting speculative scenarios are always _ presenting speculative scenarios are always helpful in understanding and this is— always helpful in understanding and this is a _ always helpful in understanding and this is a view expressed in the context— this is a view expressed in the context of— this is a view expressed in the context of this paragraph, where you

say, context of this paragraph, where you say. you _ context of this paragraph, where you say, you refer to the tactical aims of contain. — say, you refer to the tactical aims of contain, delay, research, mitigate. _ of contain, delay, research, mitigate. what was speculative about the scenario of onward transmission? 0ther— the scenario of onward transmission? other pandemic in suing in the united— other pandemic in suing in the united kingdom? —— allthe. scenarios. _ united kingdom? —— allthe. scenarios, was using in the modelling sense. as you will recall from extensive evidence we have had from extensive evidence we have had from the modellers, what i did not think was sensible was to put large numbers of different models, based on different things, into the public domain, at a on different things, into the public domain, ata point on different things, into the public domain, at a point when, actually, what people wanted was relatively straightforward.— straightforward. professor, please slow down. _ straightforward. professor, please slow down. this _ straightforward. professor, please slow down. this goes _ straightforward. professor, please slow down. this goes back - straightforward. professor, please slow down. this goes back to i straightforward. professor, please slow down. this goes back to a i slow down. this goes back to a conversation _ slow down. this goes back to a conversation we _ slow down. this goes back to a conversation we had _ slow down. this goes back to a conversation we had earlier, i slow down. this goes back to a i conversation we had earlier, which is modelling is not always the best way in which to communicate data in a time of concern. the way in which to communicate data in a time of concern.— a time of concern. the emo does refer to modelling, _ a time of concern. the emo does refer to modelling, specifically, l refer to modelling, specifically,

paragraph three. and different interventions. —— e—mail. it is bound— interventions. —— e—mail. it is bound to— interventions. —— e—mail. it is bound to be _ interventions. —— e—mail. it is bound to be said that that last paragraph appears to be referring to an uncontained global epidemic. and to onward _ an uncontained global epidemic. and to onward transmission. | an uncontained global epidemic. and to onward transmission. i was an uncontained global epidemic. and to onward transmission.— to onward transmission. i was being very clear. — to onward transmission. i was being very clear. if — to onward transmission. i was being very clear. if you — to onward transmission. i was being very clear, if you look _ to onward transmission. i was being very clear, if you look at _ to onward transmission. i was being very clear, if you look at my - to onward transmission. i was being very clear, if you look at my public i very clear, if you look at my public statements, that that was a risk, at this point in time, so that is not... the only way that you can operate, if you are a doctor or public health person, is by clear transparency of what you're trying to say. this is in no way a reference to implying that we should not be being straight with the public. i absolutely think we should. this is a point about modelling. that is why i am between the two modellers. page modelling. that is why i am between the two modellers.— the two modellers. page two. professor _ the two modellers. page two. professor ferguson _ the two modellers. page two. professor ferguson says, i the two modellers. page two. i professor ferguson says, thanks, chris. _ professor ferguson says, thanks, chris. ilt— professor ferguson says, thanks, chris, i'll respond more fully tomorrow. i agree with 90% of what

you say. _ tomorrow. i agree with 90% of what you say. but — tomorrow. i agree with 90% of what you say, but i feel it is not a matter— you say, but i feel it is not a matter of— you say, but i feel it is not a matter of if but when. that is where all the _ matter of if but when. that is where all the data — matter of if but when. that is where all the data is pointing. please scroll— all the data is pointing. please scroll back out or chris whitty, thanks. — scroll back out or chris whitty, thanks, neil, ithink scroll back out or chris whitty, thanks, neil, i think these debates are best _ thanks, neil, i think these debates are best done within its age. the applications of the united kingdom being _ applications of the united kingdom being the first country in the world to abandon containment on the basis of this— to abandon containment on the basis of this analysis, which is the togicat— of this analysis, which is the logical implication for certain... is nontrivial. what were the implications of the united kingdoms seem _ implications of the united kingdoms seem to _ implications of the united kingdoms seem to be being the first country, professor. — seem to be being the first country, professor, presumably the first issue. — professor, presumably the first issue. and _ professor, presumably the first issue, and we have just debated the relevance. _ issue, and we have just debated the relevance, the 3rd of march, the contingency plan from then, had we lost control, had a big loss of containment, had they not, why did it matter— containment, had they not, why did it matter if— containment, had they not, why did it matter if we were the first country _ it matter if we were the first country to abandon containment? remembering at this point, we do not actually have evidence of domestic transmission. from memory, the

number of cases was i think are still under ten, number of cases was i think are still underten, i number of cases was i think are still under ten, i could be wrong about those numbers. we had no deaths. if we had been in a situation where, on a two levels, either way we had said to the general public, that is it, we're going to stop trying to contain this, everyone else is going to try this, everyone else is going to try this, but we are giving up now. i think domestically would have been very difficult to sustain. also, internationally, the point that containment is it is an international issue. it is much bestseller as a collective decision, globally, to accept that this is now a pandemic and containment is a non—achievable outcome, which is not the point where the who were, it took a long time for them to declare this a pandemic. it is not where other countries well. my point was really to professor ferguson, yes, your models are probably right, actually, by the stage, had taken the view that this was probably

correct, but this did not flow into, given the small numbers of cases in our country, that we should therefore declare containment are essentially dead. that is the reason for this discussion, and the other point which i would reiterate. i was very firmly of the view that some people have gone, including some colleagues like these, having conversations in a sense, out of the stage or any other process, when my view is that they were much best donein view is that they were much best done in that process, where the scientific debate could be had with all the right people, in a minuted conversation. that was the other thing i was trying to avoid, was this becoming an informal policy—making process, driven by particular people's views, based on their own models, all of whom i have to say, i have huge respect for. that is a commentjust on the individuals. in that is a comment 'ust on the individualsi that is a comment 'ust on the individuals. _, , ., , ., individuals. in the course of your evidence. _ individuals. in the course of your evidence, repeatedly _ individuals. in the course of your evidence, repeatedly said - individuals. in the course of your evidence, repeatedly said we, i

individuals. in the course of your i evidence, repeatedly said we, and noted _ evidence, repeatedly said we, and noted and — evidence, repeatedly said we, and noted and preferred to government, including _ noted and preferred to government, including yourself in government, with wheat. we are concerned, politically, about the united kingdom —— where you concerned about the united _ kingdom —— where you concerned about the united kingdom being the first country— the united kingdom being the first country to abandon containment? no. it was not my — country to abandon containment? firm it was not my view to have a political view. fin it was not my view to have a political view.— it was not my view to have a political view. it was not my view to have a olitical view. ., , ., political view. on the 24th of, you were sent an _ political view. on the 24th of, you were sent an additional— political view. on the 24th of, you were sent an additional analysis i political view. on the 24th of, you| were sent an additional analysis of the potential impact of a variety of non—pharmaceutical interventions. this was— non—pharmaceutical interventions. this was imperial college london's one of— this was imperial college london's one of their first stabs at setting out a _ one of their first stabs at setting out a sweet of measures, and as you will recall. _ out a sweet of measures, and as you will recall, icl suggested or identified a package, containing multiple — identified a package, containing multiple measures. —— suite. they supposed — multiple measures. —— suite. they supposed and may be estimated that they would have a major effect. that report— they would have a major effect. that report was— they would have a major effect. that report was discussed at the sage on

the 25th _ report was discussed at the sage on the 25th of— report was discussed at the sage on the 25th of february, the next day. professor _ the 25th of february, the next day. professor ferguson, in his statement, refers to the fact that your response to the production of these _ your response to the production of these non—pharmaceutical interventions was a concern that, on account— interventions was a concern that, on account of— interventions was a concern that, on account of the relatively aggressive nature. _ account of the relatively aggressive nature, they were more stringent than _ nature, they were more stringent than what — nature, they were more stringent than what had come before, but pushing — than what had come before, but pushing the activity make to the autumn— pushing the activity make to the autumn or— pushing the activity make to the autumn or winter pushing the activity make to the autumn orwinter might pushing the activity make to the autumn or winter might worsen the consequences, so the notion that if you apply— consequences, so the notion that if you apply countermeasures, the wave is delayed, _ you apply countermeasures, the wave is delayed, or suppressed, and there is delayed, or suppressed, and there is a risk— is delayed, or suppressed, and there is a risk that— is delayed, or suppressed, and there is a risk that a second wave may come _ is a risk that a second wave may come back. _ is a risk that a second wave may come back. what may wave make comeback— come back. what may wave make comeback in a winter season and the consequences would be worse. can you please _ consequences would be worse. can you please tell— consequences would be worse. can you please tell the inquiry to what extent — please tell the inquiry to what extent you were concerned about the potential— extent you were concerned about the potential consequences, in, of course. — potential consequences, in, of course, february, about the introduction of more aggressive

countermeasures? | introduction of more aggressive countermeasures?— introduction of more aggressive countermeasures? i think professor fer uson countermeasures? i think professor ferguson and _ countermeasures? i think professor ferguson and some _ countermeasures? i think professor ferguson and some of— countermeasures? i think professor ferguson and some of the - countermeasures? i think professor ferguson and some of the others i countermeasures? i think professor i ferguson and some of the others must remember —— misremeber a very strong view of mine, but they remember the views of it, and that was that a wave in the winter was going to be very problematic. this was the following winter. —— misremember. my view, based on a large part of what has happened in previous flu pandemic, accepting all the differences, of when the second wave in the winter was coming from memory, all three of the major ones in the 20th century, worse than the first and always in the winter. my view was not based on their models. i think this is where the misunderstanding came from, was the assumed that all decisions were starting from the models they were having, but my view was that i was starting from what had previously happened in pandemics. they are

correct that i was confirmed that a concern about the winter, but many people say, i talked about that multiple times, in sage, and i did. that did not mean that i wasn't worried about in february, in march, i thought there was a strong risk that we were going to be able to push things just by delay alone come into the winter months. that struck me. quite improbable, it struck me as. i think this is a genuine misunderstanding, misremembering from professor ferguson about my concerns in the winter, but he is correct i was concerned about it. anything that was reasonable. multiple other e—mails of mind that was my view. multiple other e-mails of mind that was my view.— was my view. 151158. it is a presentation _ was my view. 151158. it is a presentation from - was my view. 151158. it is a presentation from the i was my view. 151158. it is a i presentation from the cabinet secretariat, dated the 6th of march. there _ secretariat, dated the 6th of march. there is _ secretariat, dated the 6th of march. there is a _ secretariat, dated the 6th of march.

there is a reference in this... page three. _ there is a reference in this... page three. think— there is a reference in this... page three. think it— there is a reference in this... page three, think it must be. where this improbabte — three, think it must be. where this improbable suggestion that you completely suppress a wave and then choose _ completely suppress a wave and then choose not— completely suppress a wave and then choose not to come in any way, mitigate — choose not to come in any way, mitigate the subsequent wave? i think— mitigate the subsequent wave? i think that — mitigate the subsequent wave? i think that is what talking about. it is. think that is what talking about. is. these think that is what talking about. if is. these were very stringent social and behavioural interventions, to prevent a major epidemic establishing, but risks a large epidemic re—establishment when lifted. putting aside the accuracy or not of the green line, that sentence is reflective, is it not, of the uncoiled spring? yes, this is a statement of fact. if you go for a suppression strategy, however long you do it, and china has developed this pretty clearly in the last year, at a certain point, you will

have to release it and then the pandemic is still with you and then you have what is called an exit we come in epidemiology. if you have managed to suppress it this far, you may lose control overwinter, for epidemiological reasons, but let's say you managed to hold it for two years, the same still applies, so, essentially, the wave comes at the point you choose to release the measures, and, as i say, i think what happened in china is a really clear epidemiological outplaying of that fact. this is trying to make clear to people that if you go for suppression, don't think that is your problem done, you just had to suppress for a bit and that is done. at some type did you make have to face this. it will depend on when it is. , , ., , face this. it will depend on when it is. , , ., face this. it will depend on when it is. did you prepare or contribute to this presentation? _ is. did you prepare or contribute to this presentation? no, _ is. did you prepare or contribute to this presentation? no, i— is. did you prepare or contribute to this presentation? no, i may i is. did you prepare or contribute to this presentation? no, i may well. this presentation? no, i may well have seen — this presentation? no, i may well have seen it. _ this presentation? no, i may well have seen it, but _ this presentation? no, i may well have seen it, but what _ this presentation? no, i may well have seen it, but what i'm - this presentation? no, i may well have seen it, but what i'm talking about here, is we're trying to talk through what the logic is, and in reality. i think, through what the logic is, and in reality. ithink, in through what the logic is, and in

reality. i think, in a sense, it is misleading in the way that it is presented, but it does make the point is that if you suppress at some point, you will get an exit wave, but it doesn't say where. professor, did your concern about the relative — professor, did your concern about the relative severe consequences re—establishing themselves in the subsequent winter... ? or if a virus recalling _ subsequent winter... ? or if a virus recalling like — subsequent winter... ? or if a virus recalling like an uncoiled spring, however— recalling like an uncoiled spring, however you wish to describe it, did your concern — however you wish to describe it, did your concern influence in any way your— your concern influence in any way your willingness to countenance the more _ your willingness to countenance the more stringent interventions which were being recommended at the time? and of— were being recommended at the time? and of course, as we know, ultimately, came to be imposed? no, and ou ultimately, came to be imposed? fin, and you should recall that in the three flu pandemic i was talking about, they did not do any of these and they still got a bigger winter wave, so this idea that this only happens if you do suppression in my view, flies in the face of our last three experiences of major respiratory pandemics. in my view,

my position was