uk in our fight rwanda is helping the uk in our fight against illegal migration and people smugglers. fist fight against illegal migration and peeple smugglers-_ fight against illegal migration and people smugglers. at the bbc verify, we have been — people smugglers. at the bbc verify, we have been looking _ people smugglers. at the bbc verify, we have been looking at _ people smugglers. at the bbc verify, we have been looking at the - people smugglers. at the bbc verify, i we have been looking at the numbers behind _ we have been looking at the numbers behind the _ we have been looking at the numbers behind the government's plans to reduce _ behind the government's plans to reduce migration. what stacks up and what doesn't? israel intensifies its operation in the south of gaza — as the world health organization warns the situation is getting "worse by the hour". tens of thousands are told to evacuate parts of khan younis — is anywhere safe, what are civilians being told, and how many are actually leaving? junior doctors in england are to stage the longest strike in nhs history after talks between their union and the government broke down. hello, i'm matthew amroliwala, welcome to verified live,

britain and rwanda have signed a new treaty aimed at getting the uk government's flagship asylum policy operational, following a series of legal challenges. the policy — first announced in april 2022 — would see some asylum seekers sent to rwanda to claim asylum there. but it hit legal setbacks and was blocked in its previous form by the uk supreme court. after signing the agreement during a visit to kigali, the home secretary james cleverly said he believed the new treaty addressed all the concerns raised by the supreme court. he said he can't see "any credible reason" to question rwanda's human rights record, and hopes the first migrant flights will go there in spring 202a. £140 million has already been paid by the uk to rwanda for the implementation of the policy. fundamentally the supreme court raised two issues. one was about the capacity of the rwandan judicial system.

we have been working on that for over a year. we started to address that at the time of the appeal courtjudgment. the rwandans have been very, very good partners. we put both processes and structures in place which give us the reassurance of the integrity, the impartiality and professionalism of the rwandan judicial system. and also about the nonrefoulement, that is basically a technical term that says rwanda will not deport people who have been sent here. we have now got an internationally recognised, legally binding commitment from the rwandan government on those issues. that is stronger than, stronger than the relationship the unhcr has with rwanda, a relationship that has worked successfully for a number of years. of course, there was a press conference earlier in the day and responding to a question on that uk

supreme court decision last month and to those critics of the plan, rwanda's foreign minister had this response. i said it, we were unfairly treated by international organisations, by the media, by courts, but we believe that we are doing the right things and those who are criticising us should bring up an alternative to the solution we are proposing. the rwanda scheme is a key part of the uk govt�*s plans to stop the rwanda scheme is a key part of the uk government's plans to stop asylum seekers arriving in the uk — via small boats crossing the channel. yesterday — the government also announced a plan to reduce record high levels of legal migration to the uk. two important strands of one policy objective to lower the numbers. our correspondent nick eardley from bbc verify has been looking at those numbers. immigration has become a huge issue in british politics. the home secretary is in rwanda

today talking about these numbers. small boat crossings. the government has made stopping the boats a key test, hence the determination to keep going with a plan to send some asylum—seekers to rwanda. we don't know yet whether the treaty being agreed today will be enough to get the plan off the ground to bring these numbers down. if you look at these numbers over 16,000 in 2022, just under 30,000 this year so far. that number is a lot lower than this one. this is legal migration to the uk. net migration has rocketed since the uk introduced its post—brexit immigration system. you can see the figure down here starts to go up quite considerably. official figures show that record levels of net migration were recorded in 2022. you can see that here. it'sjust under three quarters of a million. and it still looks extremely high this year. this point here is the year tojune.

672,000 for the year so far. yesterday, we got the government's plan to bring this down. but we wanted to look a bit more at the numbers and the extent to which they stack up. firstly, it is important to point out the numbers are more likely to fall, even if the government had not made these announcements. there are already fewer people arriving from ukraine, hong kong, and those numbers are likely to fall further still. but the government has said the plans announced yesterday will reduce the number of people coming into the country by around 300,000. this is how that breaks down. 140,000 or so, the government says, dependents of the masters students coming into the uk. 100,000 would come down by removing the dependents of social care workers. another 50,000 here by increasing the salary threshold for skill workers.

this grey bit here, the rest, we are told, would be made up from other measures. but, and this is important, none of it can be completely certain. he asked the home office for more details about how it arrived at these numbers. they said it hadn't been published yet. and if we look at this number, the salary threshold for skilled workers, it's actually quite hard to be certain about how many people this will impact, because we don't know how much everyone coming into the uk is earning. we don't know how that might change over the next few months. we don't know if some employers might increase their pay so that they meet this newest salary threshold. the new measures come into place in april, so it will be several months, possibly after a key general election, before we can scrutinise the change in net migration. and a final thing to remember is this — what the government was promising in 2019. even if the target reduction of 300,000 is achieved,

it's still quite far off what the conservatives were pledging in their 2019 manifesto. 0verall, numbers will come down. the net migration figure from 2019 was 226,000, so to get there, net migration would have to be reduced by roughly 450,000 from where it is at the moment. there is a long way to go. back to what we have been seeing happening there today, because i have been speaking to doris uwikeza picard — who's the chief legal advisor to the rwandan ministry ofjustice. when she spoke to the bbc after that supreme court rouling, when she spoke to the bbc after that supreme court ruling, she said she took offence that rwanda deemed not a safe country to send asylum seekers. given that rwanda signed a new treaty today, i asked her — if she admits that currently rwanda hasn't been safe. no, we do not accept that rwanda is not safe. this current treaty

is a reiteration, really, of the commitments and a reaffirmation of the commitments we have for protecting refugees and asylum seekers and migrants that will be coming to rwanda from the uk. reaffirmation, though, is not going to cut much ice with the supreme court. you are still saying you do not accept thejudgment? what we are saying is that we find that it was disappointing to have rwanda put on trial on the basis of a very disingenuous report by unhcr — a report which has no basis in fact. as you know by now, as unhcr were issuing a statement saying that the country was not safe, they were bringing in 170 migrants from libya that we have agreed to receive, so that was the issue with us, that it was based on this statement by unhcr that was given undue weight. i'm fascinated that you are still contesting it. tell me then what have

you signed up to? because one of the key concerns was concerns around sending asylum seekers back, potentially, to their home countries where they may face danger. what assurances, guarantees have you signed up to today? yes, rwanda is a state partner of the refugee convention and we have always been a safe place for refugees. we have never had instances of removal in our country. however, this is something that needed to be said in a binding document, such as a treaty. so we have gone the extra mile to reaffirm this commitment to make sure there is going to be absolutely no case of removal, as it has been for eons in rwanda. we have included provisions that nobody will be removed from rwanda, people who are not found to be refugees, will be given permenant residence. that is one of the...

what else have you signed up to in terms of assurances to the court? there was a long list. i was speaking to a professor of law at king's college on that day who thought that a new treaty wouldn't fix this. there were so many planks of criticism in the judgment, the new treaty would not look at the history of political turmoil, it wouldn't look at the ongoing concerns about human rights and there was no effective right to appeal. it is there on the statute book since 2018 but has never been used. and he continued at length in terms of concerns, so what else have you signed up to today in terms of assurances? yes, exactly that example of having the right of appeal, it brings us back to the statement that was devoid of context. here in rwanda most of the refugees are fleeing from immediate conflict and they are immediately given the status of refugees. as it pertains to individual refugee

status, we have had 20 we have had 20 applications per year, and of those applications, the majority do get status, some of them apply for alternative residence. i don't mean to be rude, but you are restating what you are doing, but this is a new treaty to reassure the court and i'm asking you what else have you signed up to that previously you were not signed up to? yes, i was getting there. we are building up our capacity to be able to absorb a larger number of applicants, and in that instance, we are engaging with the uk within this treaty to build up our capacity to ensure that we have all these working asylum processes that ensure of fairness and transparency in the processing of the asylum claims. so that is one other element which was not present on the face of the memorandum of understanding

that you can now find in the treaty. two final thoughts, the bbc was told they could see british lawyers situated in rwanda's courts, is that part of what you are signed up to today? no, that is not part of the treaty. right now, the capacity building will have judges of multiple nationalities to be on this panel of the immigration tribunal, that will be looking into the appeals, and working in partnership with the uk to train up our capacity, but there will not be foreign lawyers in this partnership. final thought, then, has there been new money given and pledged by the uk government to rwanda? and if this comes to nothing and there are several hurdles, but if it comes to nothing and the uk cannot send asylum seekers to rwanda, rwanda has been given £140 million for the scheme so far. if it comes to nothing, will you give the money back?

yes, what we need to understand is that rwanda did not ask for any more money in terms of the treaty. the treaty is to respond to the concerns of the supreme court. and as for the money, it is notjust a migration partnership but an economic development partnership in recognition of the fact that we need to build capacity at home and build opportunities here in africa. this will in turn... sure, but it is a key point of uk policy. i'm simply asking you, if it doesn't come to fruition on the uk side, will you give that money back? that is what i'm explaining to you. it is a migration and economic development partnership. so there is willingness on both sides to participate in the economic development of rwanda. my my reaction to what we have been seeing there today. i've also been

speaking to natasha tsangarides, associate director of advocacy at freedom from torture. she outlined her objections even after the treaty the home secretary signed with the rwandan government today in kigali. we think it's absolutely shameful that just weeks after the supreme court handed down a very clearjudgment that rwanda was not safe, thatjames cleverly has got on a plane and signed a treaty. there is no amount of tinkering with this system or signing pieces of paper that are going to detract from the findings of fact that the court made. the court was extremely clear. it poured over vast amounts of evidence, expert evidence from rule of law experts to un experts, and really highlighted the poor human rights record that rwanda has, extrajudicial killings, torture. and they painted a picture of how dysfunctional the asylum system was with a 100 100% rejection rate of applicants from war zone countries like syria

and afghanistan. now, to think that after such a damning verdict, thatjames cleverly thinks he can get on a plane and get a signed piece of paper that somehow would make this situation better is just appalling. well, you say that, but let me just dive in, in terms of the principle of this, there's nothing wrong, is there, with seeing what the objections are from the supreme court and then trying to actually address them. that is what the government will be saying they are doing here. we believe that it's absolutely wrong in principle. and people up and down the country we know agree with us. but that's a different...that�*s a different objection. just stick to what i'm asking you, which is in principle, there is nothing wrong, is there, with listening to what a court has said in striking you down and trying to make the changes that address that and reassure the court. of course, but to think that

it's so simple to that suddenly the rwandan government is going to suddenly oblige by its obligations that it's had for decades, overnight, because james cleverly has asked them to is quite astonishing. you know, the rwandan government has been bound by a number of international obligations like the un convention for refugees for decades. yet, unfortunately, its record has not proved that it has put that into action. you talk about the record. i was talking to a representative from the rwandan government from kigali. they argue they have looked after 130,000 refugees, and they say they've looked after them well. it is in the rwandan government's interests to explain to journalists and politicians that they are treating people well.

i am not based in rwanda. however, we, you know, looking at the supreme court findings, which is the highest court of our land, that spent serious amounts of time and poured over vast amounts of evidence and came to these findings of fact and painted a picture of a dysfunctional system. i believe that that court is what we listen to, not james cleverly and not policy and not other politicians spinning what they what they're trying to sell. at the end of the day, this is a cash for humans deal, and that people who are interested to make it work will tell you anything you want to hear, but you cannot change what the findings of fact are. on the programme in the next few minutes, the latest from the middle east. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news. let's look at some other stories making news.

the uk government has suffered a defeat in the commons — its first since 2019 — over delays in compensation payments to victims of the nhs contaminated blood scandal. thousands of patients were given tainted blood products in the 1970s and 80s, causing them to contract diseases like hiv and hepatitis. so far only a small proportion of them have been given interim payments. new guidance states trans women who have hurt or threatened women or girls will not be held in female prisons unless there are exceptional circumstances. the scottish prison service policy follows a public outcry after a rapist was sent to a women's prison. isla bryson raped two women while known as a man called adam graham. draft guidance from 0fcom suggests porn users could have their faces scanned to prove their age, with extra checks for young—looking adults. the watchdog has set out a number of ways explicit sites could prevent children from viewing pornography. 0ne survery says the average age children first view

you're live with bbc news. the world health organization says the situation in gaza is deteriorating by the hour as israeli bombing intensifies in the south of the territory. and the united nations has warned that "an even more hellish scenario" could be about to unfold, for civilians there. israel is trying to destroy hamas, designated a terror organisation by the uk government. unconfirmed reports claim, israeli troops may try to destroy the vast network of hamas tunnels underneath the gaza strip by flooding them with sea water. let's go live tojerusalem and our middle east correspondent hugo bachega. let's start with the military situation on the ground because israeli commanders saying in the last couple of hours they have now encircled khan younis.— encircled khan younis. exactly, matthew, _ encircled khan younis. exactly, matthew. and _ encircled khan younis. exactly, matthew, and in _ encircled khan younis. exactly, matthew, and in about, - encircled khan younis. exactly, matthew, and in about, earlier| encircled khan younis. exactly, - matthew, and in about, earlier this afternoon, the israeli military said

that israeli forces had reached the hearts of khan younis. this is a major city in southern gaza and this is a city that has been the focal point of the israeli offensive against hamas. this is where the israeli authorities believe that members of the hamas leadership have been hiding and we have seen that in the last few days since the cease—fire expired on friday that the israeli forces have carried out a number of air strikes, heavy bombardment in and around khan younis. and also tens of thousands of residents have been told to evacuate. so this is not the focal point of the israeli operation in southern gaza. the israeli military continues also to operate in northern gaza. they had encircled the refugee camp, it said that hamas was using this refugee camp as a

centre in northern gaza, so the military activity has continued with reports that israeli tanks have been seen around khan younis as days israeli offensive against hamas gets under way tell me more about humanitarian situation because more ever weaker warnings from so many different agencies. exactly. we have had some very strong words from the un agency, saying that no safe place bashed no place is safe and gaza. again, raising concerns about the humanitarian situation and those zones that have been designated by the israeli military as safe zones. we see that the israeli army have issued those evacuation orders telling people to move to a major

city in the south near the border with egypt and also to an area near the mediterranean coast and aid agencies have been warning that those places don't have the capacity to host tens of thousands of people who are once again being told to flee. and we have seen that, you know, the delivery of humanitarian aid has been very limited in recent days and widespread shortages of basic supplies. we have seen that hospitals are also under a lot of pressure with doctors having to operate with very limited resources. thank you very much, as hugo was finishing, let me tell you hamas officials just saying in the last little while, there will be no negotiations or exchange of detainees until the aggression against gaza stops. that's the exact quote from hamas officials in the last few minutes. turning to a developing story here in the uk in the last little while.

junior doctors in england have voted to stage fresh strikes in england this month and next — after talks between the government and union broke down. the british medical association said junior doctors would strike from 7am on the 20th to the 23rd of december. a new government offer adding 3 percent to pay this year was rejected, according to the bma. straight to our newsroom. a real blow that these talks have broken down and really long strikes being outlined.— being outlined. that's right, matthew — being outlined. that's right, matthew. the _ being outlined. that's right, matthew. the most - being outlined. that's right, matthew. the most difficult| being outlined. that's right, - matthew. the most difficult time of the year for the nhs. matthew. the most difficult time of the yearfor the nhs. around the uk, this dispute is very much in england, and how leaders are really very concerned, to put it frankly. the strike before christmas, three days, is going to be difficult enough, but the really busy challenging time for the health service, particularly in hospitals and for ambulance services is in the

new year after people come back in the new year holiday with pent—up demand because gp services and social care during public holidays are often scaled back. so that's six days from january the 3rd is going to be incredibly difficult for health leaders, for patients and for those working on the front line of the nhs, and it is the longest single strike byjunior doctors so far in this dispute. now, they argued that they have been in talks since late october, that they were prepared to talk and the attitude was constructive from the new health secretary, victoria atkins, but the extra 3% in their view was still not enough to compensate for the previous impact of inflation. yes. previous impact of inflation. yes, briefl , previous impact of inflation. yes, briefly. only _ previous impact of inflation. yes, briefly, only about _ previous impact of inflation. yes, briefly, only about 45 _ previous impact of inflation. yes, briefly, only about 45 seconds left, hospital leaders artie saying that breakdown of these talks is what they were dreading when they were looking at the time of year and waiting lists.— waiting lists. that's right. the finances of — waiting lists. that's right. the finances of the _ waiting lists. that's right. the finances of the nhs _ waiting lists. that's right. the finances of the nhs because l waiting lists. that's right. the| finances of the nhs because it waiting lists. that's right. the - finances of the nhs because it costs them money to hire consultants to do

extra shifts to cover the junior doctors. and they didn't get the money they want to from previous disputes. the government line on all of this is very, very disappointed at what has happened. they felt the talks were ongoing and say they are surprised that the bma walked away from the discussion. so it looks very much as if the strikes go ahead, very difficult to see how further talks get going anytime soon. , ., ., soon. here in the newsroom with those latest _ soon. here in the newsroom with those latest developments. - soon. here in the newsroom with | those latest developments. thank soon. here in the newsroom with - those latest developments. thank you very much. we are back here in a moment or two. we will have all the latest from the middle east. we also have news conferences from south wales police on that stabbing. back in a moment. hello. skies are going to be clearing across much of the country through the evening and overnight, and that's going to lead to a widespread frost.

also fog forming, particularly across more southern parts of the uk. now, let me show you the satellite picture from earlier on. it really was quite a cloudy day across the bulk of england and wales — drizzly, too. but in the north—west, we had clearer skies and it's been quite a cold day. and this is where the temperatures will be lowest overnight. now the winds will fall light as well right across the uk, and that's going to help the fog to form. and we're thinking around parts of the midlands into wales, central, southern england and into the south—east as well — and really quite dense in places. now, the temperatures will be widely below freezing, even in bigger towns and cities, perhaps as low as —7 or —10 in the sheltered glens, but already somewhat milder in the far west of the uk. and that's in advance of this weather front. you can see the southerly winds. but the fog ahead of it and the windless weather will mean, well, that fog will stick around into the afternoon in one or two locations. and where it does, it really will be quite a raw day. so in some spots, temperatures on wednesday during the afternoon could be barely above freezing. but i think that's not going to be

the case for most of us. for many of us, it will be a bright, if not sunny day, but a really chilly one. so, 4 degrees in edinburgh, newcastle, around 6 in norwich. but out towards the west, that's where the front is advancing southerly winds, so a milder direction. wind and rain will spread across the uk during the course of wednesday night and into thursday. ahead of it, temporarily, there could be some wintry weather across the pennines and the scottish hills and mountains. and then on thursday, it's a wet day. at least a spell of rain on the way for many of us before it turns a little bit clearer later in the day out towards the west. and you can see those temperatures rising — 13 in plymouth, about 6 or 7 across the east and the north—east. and that pattern continues into friday and the weekend. we have a whole succession of low pressures and weather fronts coming our way.

so basically it's what we call a westerly regime — so, fronts coming out of the west, bringing much milder conditions. and here's the outlook. from thursday onwards and even into next week, you can see double figures. it's been below average for quite some time. now it's going to be somewhat above average. bye— bye.

this is bbc news.

the main headlines: the uk home secretary signs a treaty with rwanda, as they try again to fulfil the promise to send asylum—seekers to the country. israel intensifies its operation in the south of gaza, as the world health organization warns the situation is getting "worse by the hour". armed police have arrested a suspect after a woman was stabbed in aberfan in south wales. we are expecting a news conference in the next few minutes. junior doctors in england are to stage more strikes in december and january after rejecting a new pay offer from the government. and a billion—dollar version of grand theft auto is revealed in a new trailer, the first update of the game in a decade. all of those stories in a moment or two, and we are keeping an eye on that news conference from south wales police. as soon as it starts, we will obviously carry that live, but let's first of all head to the

bbc sport centre.