into the town of grindavik, setting several homes on fire. hello, i'm sally bundock. we are less than 2a hours away from the casting of the first votes of the first stage of 2024 us presidential election. in iowa, republican voters will gather across the state for its caucuses to kick off the party's nomination process. former us president donald trump begins caucus day with major momentum to win the state, with candidates such as governor ron desantis and former governor and ambassador nikki haley competing to take his place as leader of the party. it's set to be a historic night, notjust because of the political drama surrounding former president donald trump

and his republican primary challengers, but because of the bitterly cold weather. in the past week, iowa has been rocked by blizzards, with life—threatening temperatures. live now to des moines in iowa and our presenter, caitriona perry. let's talk about the league to begin with, donald trump, he is a clear leader at this point? he is, he has been heading every poll taken our you are a nationally since the cycle began. the latest poll came from the respected newspaper in conjunction with nbc news and they came out on saturday night. it had donald trump at 48%. behind him, nikki haley on 20%, so more than twice the number of people who say they will vote for nikki haley say they are valuable donald trump. it is very accurate.

interestingly, as an outlier poll, howevertends interestingly, as an outlier poll, however tends to win and when iui does not go on to win the presidency, but donald trump this time around is letting to break a pile of records here. he was to win the poll here by a margin that has never happened before. to send a signal to the rest of the field, the rest of the country, that he is a republican nominee, notwithstanding legal challenges and everything else that he is dealing with at the moment, that he intends to fight for and he would say win the seat in the white house, and the oval office in the election in november. a fierce contest here even though it would look for all intents and purposes that the result of this point is a done deal, but you cannot ever see latin american politics. we have often learned _ american politics. we have often learned that. - american politics. we have often learned that. let's i american politics. we have i often learned that. let's talk about nikki haley and ron desantis. they are fighting for second position. what is the likely outcome?—

second position. what is the likely outcome? that is hard to call, and likely outcome? that is hard to call. and the — likely outcome? that is hard to call, and the election _ likely outcome? that is hard to call, and the election watching | call, and the election watching element is around that issue on second place. the poll has nikki haley on 20% and ron desantis on 16. he has been ahead of her as she has caught up ahead of her as she has caught up with him. if you look ahead to the next state in this primary contest, that is new hampshire and she is storming ahead of him there. for both of them, it is critical to come second to donald trump here in iowa to seek what is for to get out of iowa, to keep going, keep your donors, keep the momentum, keep carrying you through into new hampshire and these days after, south carolina, her home state, which she desperately wants to win. ron desantis it desperately wants to be true there a quarter embarrassment in her home state which he hopes will put an end to her campaign if thatis put an end to her campaign if that is not come soon. there was a voracious amount of

campaign events going on here, notwithstanding the desperate weather conditions. donald trump holding one rally this weekend, he had cancelled a lot of them and turn them into virtual rallies. it was filled with people today whereas the other candidates are doing their best to criss—cross the state and hold as many of those traditional little meetings in a town halls and diners and barbecuejoints, trying a town halls and diners and barbecue joints, trying to a town halls and diners and barbecuejoints, trying to meet as many voters as they can, press the flesh, shake hands, try to get some connection to voters there when they head into the caucus in their school hole or community centre later tonight, that they vote for them. sending them on their way out of iowa and along the road. thank you for the very latest. live now to larry gerston, who is a professor of political science at sanjose state university. he's also the author of trumpism, bigotry, and the threat to

american democracy. good to have you in the programme. we got a mention the weather. some say this could disrupt the outcome because many in temperatures of —30 degrees may not turn out to vote. it degrees may not turn out to vote. . . , ._ degrees may not turn out to vote. . . , . ., vote. it certainly may change the outcome. _ vote. it certainly may change the outcome. we _ vote. it certainly may change the outcome. we know - vote. it certainly may change the outcome. we know this | vote. it certainly may change - the outcome. we know this much, they are hardy people, but when you are talking about 0 degrees weather, even the hardiest will think about it twice. guess i do organisation, campaign organisation, which campaign is organise the best, because the better organising well, the easier it will be for you to get out those people who are your supporters to those 1503 things, the gathering places across the states, where all the people who vote go to listen to the candidates, where they are represented. they decide after a while ok, he will have overfour? decide after a while ok, he will have over four? the votes are added up and after a few

days every week, depending, we get the final result. there will be people coming out, perhaps not as many, and that is why campaign organisation becomes very critical. in terms of what the _ becomes very critical. in terms of what the outcome _ becomes very critical. in terms of what the outcome will - becomes very critical. in terms of what the outcome will be, i becomes very critical. in terms | of what the outcome will be, do you believe the polls are right, the donald trump will win this easily? it is all about who comes in second and that person, whether nikki haley or ron desantis, they have to try to then galvanise even more support if there is fewer in the mix?— fewer in the mix? you do not want to make _ fewer in the mix? you do not want to make sure _ fewer in the mix? you do not want to make sure any - want to make sure any predictions about iowa. this is an election of expectation. we know that former president trump is expected to get about 50%. if we exceed so greatly, it makes it easier for him to go on to new hampshire, south carolina and raptors nomination quickly. if he is below 50, 45 or 43%, then he has not met

expectations of that would hurt him. the same with the others, if nikki haley has a strong second, less they get closer to 30% is that of 20%, that will invite a lot of money and interest and bars for new hampshire where she is only seven points behind right now. it is not only about the numbers and who wins or loses any one place, but also the expectations for each of the candidates will bring it is very important election. putting it in perspective, why is this so important? it is the first one, is this the tone, you could argue, for the process, but are far from that? apart from the, it is it. it sets the tone. it is out of kilter, you have 40 delegates out of 2500, he will be selected, so it does not matter mathematically, but the idea, let's say, of trump and his faults, does not do so well, or

does much better, that was set the tone. talking about races early on, so often the case that they do, but as discussed earlier, the last three times we had races for the nomination, every time the person wanting our you are, he did not want to win later on. that is what we need to look at right now. that is what we need to look at right nova— right now. interesting to talk to ou. right now. interesting to talk to you. thank _ right now. interesting to talk to you. thank you _ right now. interesting to talk to you. thank you for - right now. interesting to talk to you. thank you for your i to you. thank you for your time. looking at events in the uk now. prime minister rishi sunak will make a statement to parliament later, explaining the decision to take part in raids in yemen. he's faces criticism from some parties for not giving mps an opportunity to discuss it before the raids. it comes in the context of rising tension across the middle east since the start of the gaza conflict. here's our political correspondent leila nathoo. britishjets took off late on thursday night to join us air strikes against houthi targets in yemen.

the uk said the group had had warning after warning to stop their attacks on ships in the red sea, such as this one they filmed. the houthis have been targeting vessels for months that they say are linked to israel. today, the foreign secretary david cameron insisted that the uk had no choice but to take military action to protect a critical global trade route. not acting is also a policy. it wasn't working and it's right we have sent this very clear, very unambiguous message that we are prepared to follow our words and warnings with action. lord cameron insisted the air strikes would not escalate tensions in the region and defended the decision not to seek parliamentary approval in advance. i don't think it would have been right to have a debate and a vote before this sort of action, because i think it is important, for reasons of operational security, to, on this occasion, take the action and then have a statement in parliament afterwards. the labour leader, sir keir starmer, was briefed by the government before the strikes went ahead and supported them. he had previously promised

to create a new law requiring commons consent before military action could be taken — not inconsistent, he said, with his backing for action against the houthis. there will always be urgent situations where parliament can't be consulted beforehand. but the principle that if there is to be a sustained campaign, if we are going to deploy our troops on the ground, that parliament should be informed, there should be a debate, the case should be made and there should be a vote, i do stand by that. there won't be a vote here tomorrow. rishi sunak will make a statement to the commons and take questions from mps. the government will be watching closely how the situation in the red sea develops and says it will consider any next steps carefully. opposition parties will want to hear ministers make their case. the questions now: do the houthi attacks continue? do the americans come knocking again? how involved will britain become? leila nathoo, bbc news, westminster.

with me is mohamed taha from bbc arabic. good morning. let's talk about theissue good morning. let's talk about the issue to begin with, what is happening in the red sea. the us military has said there has been more attacks going on. the us military announced that a missile was launched towards a missile was launched towards a military ship in the red sea and they managed to intercept that missile and nobody was hurt in the attack. this is an indication that this war in the red sea with the yemen government, that is controlled by the houthis, is not getting any lower. the us started those attacks on thursday and they followed that again on friday. the houthis replied by flying some drones and now they are

launching missiles. the uk is heavily involved in this war currently is, as you said, that rishi sunak is going to speak to parliament about it. we cannot separate this massive involvement from the uk and the us in this year of elections. in terms of what is going on in gaza overnight, what have you heard? ., ., , gaza overnight, what have you heard? . . , ., ., , gaza overnight, what have you heard? . ., ., ., heard? hamas and as the total number of _ heard? hamas and as the total number of military _ heard? hamas and as the total number of military vehicles - number of military vehicles they managed to destroy in gaza after 100 days of war reached 1000 vehicles, and israel announced they managed to kill 9000 of the hamas militants. israeli says the militants are 30,000, which is making this war going ahead for some time.

hamas also announced they lost connection with some militants who are responsible for the hostages in a gaza, and making the divide inside the israeli government deepened. some ministers are calling for this war to end and for having the courage to have exchange prisoners with hamas, and other ministers who are supporting benjamin netanyahu want the war to carry on to destroy hamas as they announced before. this divide between the two parties is getting wider in the israeli cabinet and the war continues in gaza, leaving, at the moment, 24,000 civilians killed over the last 100 days.—

over the last 100 days. once aaain over the last 100 days. once again for— over the last 100 days. once again for bringing _ over the last 100 days. once again for bringing us - again for bringing us up—to—date on the latest, thank you. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. analysis from a uk transport safety charity suggests that very few injuries involving e—scooters are being reported to the police. it's calling for more data to understand the dangers that they pose, as jon donnison reports. these scooters a decade ago almost unheard of, these days they are a common site. now a charity that advises the government says injuries from the scooter accidents are being underwritten watered and data needs to be collected more rigorously. the study looked at 300 east scooter casualties recorded by hospitals over a two—month period in 2021. it found only 10% were also recorded in police statistics. of recorded in police statistics. of the most serious injuries a quarter were reported to the

police. one reason might be, it is illegal to ride a privately scooter on roads or pavement in the uk, trials of rental scooters and dozens of towns and cities are ongoing john donaldson bbc news. you're live with bbc news. china's top diplomat has warned that any steps towards taiwan's independence will be severely punished. it follows the election of william lai as the island's new president — he's viewed by beijing as a dangerous separatist. speaking during a visit to egypt, china's minister of foreign affairs, wang yi, had this to say: translation: taiwan's election is a regional. affair within china. no matter what the results of the election are, they cannot change the basic fact that there is only one china and taiwan is a part of it. taiwan has never been a country. it wasn't in the past, and it certainly won't be in the future.

the bbc�*s steve lai gave us this update from taipei. since the election china has responded with the foreign affairs minister saying despite the election there is only one china and taiwan as part of its. those are strong words followed up by an accusation the us was sending a gravely wrong signal to those pushing for taiwan's independence. the us secretary of state congratulated president—elect william lai on saturday and the message seen by beijing as a violation of washington's commitment to maintain only unofficial ties with taiwan. on sunday a us delegation including the former national security adviser stephen hadley and the former deputy of state arrived to meet with leading political figures. arrived to meet with leading politicalfigures. from experts i have been speaking to, the visit by those two former officials which is not unprecedented it has to be said serves to signal both the

support of the us for taiwan and it is not seeking to provoke china. adding to the geopolitical complexity surrounding taiwan, the world's two leading economies will have to come to grips with working with a divided parliament out the dpp has lost its majority control. the dpp has lost its ma'ority control. ., , the dpp has lost its ma'ority control. . , ., ., ., let's get some of the day's other news now. the swearing in of guatemala's anti—corruption president—elect, bernardo arevalo, has been delayed by his opponents in congress amid tense scenes outside. his supporters have been threatening to storm the chamber unless deputies move forward. they say there's a last—ditch attempt to keep him from power in central america's largest country, which has been plagued by corruption for years. ecuador�*s president, daniel noboa, has congratulated the security forces for retaking control of several prisons, as his government seeks to contain drugs gangs that have run rampant across the country. more than 200 officials held hostage insidejails have now been freed.

the army has released videos showing prison walls being blown up and inmates stripped to their underwear. lava from two volcanic fissures in iceland has entered the southwestern fishing town of grindavik, setting several houses on fire and burying a building under the molten rock. you're watching live pictures from the area. and while it's now dark there, you can still see lava glowing and smoke rising into the sky. the prime minister called it "a black day for grindavik and for all of iceland". the government will meet on monday to discuss measures to house the evacuated residents. jessica parker has this report. this was a worst—case scenario thatis this was a worst—case scenario that is now unfolding in front

of the world's eyes, wave alton rockis of the world's eyes, wave alton rock is carving its way into what was a thriving town. grindavik evacuated, again but abandoned homes and businesses lined the path of an overwhelming natural force. this it appears was the first house to fall.— house to fall. this is a bit surreal — house to fall. this is a bit surreal to _ house to fall. this is a bit surreal to watch - house to fall. this is a bit surreal to watch your - house to fall. this is a bit i surreal to watch your family home just disappear. surreal to watch your family homejust disappear. i'm surreal to watch your family home just disappear. i'm still realising what is happening. trucks building defensive barriers against the lava suddenly found that surging towards them. fiery liquid burst out into the open on sunday morning. another fissure tore up through the earth. todayis tore up through the earth. today is a black day for grindavik and today is a black day for iceland. but the sun will rise again. together we will rise again. together we will deal with the shock,

whatever may happen. we reported — whatever may happen. we reported from _ whatever may happen. we reported from grindavik back in november before erections began. people had to pack up their belongings as earthquakes ripped the town apart. this is now the second eruption on the peninsular within a month, following several others in recent years, before that this part of iceland had not seen volcanic activity for 800 years. volcanic activity for 800 ears. . , volcanic activity for 800 ears, ., , ., volcanic activity for 800 ears. ., , ., , ., volcanic activity for 800 ears. ., , ., ., years. there was a period and that was when _ years. there was a period and that was when multiple - years. there was a period and that was when multiple fishesj that was when multiple fishes opened up on the peninsular, sporadically, and did pretty much what we are seeing today. then it went quiet for 800 years now it seems since 2021 we have begun a new volcanic era. ., , ., ., era. people here are no strangers _ era. people here are no strangers to _ era. people here are no. strangers to earthquakes era. people here are no - strangers to earthquakes and eruptions. but this kind of potential disruption of people's homes and livelihoods

has not happened for half a century. i has not happened for half a centu . ., has not happened for half a centu . ~ ,., , century. i think the point is we have — century. i think the point is we have had _ century. i think the point is we have had quite - century. i think the point is we have had quite a - century. i think the point is we have had quite a lot - century. i think the point is we have had quite a lot of. we have had quite a lot of experience in dealing with this. even though this is perhaps the most serious threat of volcanic eruptions in iceland since january 1973. the land of fire _ iceland since january 1973. the land of fire and _ iceland since january 1973. the land of fire and ice _ iceland since january 1973. the land of fire and ice is an endless display of nature's awesome power, this time what is playing out makes for an astounding but awful site. live now to hallgerdur kolbrun e jonsdottir. she is a reporter in reykjavik covering the eruption. what more can you tell us? the southern fissure _ what more can you tell us? tue: southern fissure that what more can you tell us? t'ta: southern fissure that opened what more can you tell us? tt2 southern fissure that opened up yesterday, it seems to be throwing down and dying out. so hopefully no more houses will

go under and the town of grindavik, three houses have been ruined from the lava, afterjust been ruined from the lava, after just catching fire. been ruined from the lava, afterjust catching fire. but it seems the southern fissure is dying down so hopefully no more houses will go under. as you said in your report, the government will meet up today so hopefully they will announce some plans for the residents of grindavik, like more permanent plans for them. but this eruption seems to be a little bit slower than the one that started in december. so the amount of lava that came out at the beginning is not as much. talk us through what is in place for those who have been evacuated, and what the outlook is as the days progress? starting in november, the

government made some plans for the residents, because grindavik was basically unlivable because of earthquake and the ground opening up, inside the town. but they have been slowly buying up apartment in the capital area for the residents of grindavik, to rent, so they will probably announce the buying of more apartments to day stop on the residents of grindavik, they have not had to worry about their salaries because the government helped the local places of work to pay out their salaries. so that will probably continue until at least the

summer, probably the autumn. because the situation on grindavik seems to be so dire people will not be able to live there or work there for the next few months. figs there or work there for the next few months.- there or work there for the next few months. as you say could last — next few months. as you say could last for _ next few months. as you say could last for quite _ next few months. as you say could last for quite some - next few months. as you say i could last for quite some time. severely impacting those who live there, who run businesses there, this will have a long—term impact on iceland, won't it? long-term impact on iceland, won't it? , long-term impact on iceland, won'tit? , , won't it? yes, absolutely, it is very uncomfortable - won't it? yes, absolutely, it is very uncomfortable to - won't it? yes, absolutely, it| is very uncomfortable to live in this situation, and have a series of volcanic eruption so close to your home. residents in grindavik and on the peninsular they don't really feel well about the whole situation, very uncomfortable, people are scared, and the whole country is coming together to help them but it is

not an easy thing to live through. not an easy thing to live through-— not an easy thing to live throu~h. . ~' . ., through. thank you so much for talkin: to through. thank you so much for talking to us — through. thank you so much for talking to us on _ through. thank you so much for talking to us on bbc _ through. thank you so much for talking to us on bbc news. - through. thank you so much forj talking to us on bbc news. stay with us, top business stories next. i will be speaking to marie kondo and sir martin sorrell next. hello. we have got a cold, wintry week of weather ahead. we may well see a bit of disruption down to the fact that we've got plenty of snow showers in the forecast, particularly towards the north — mainly across parts of scotland, in fact. fewer showers around further south but it is going to be cold and we're going to see some sharp overnight frosts. could be some icy conditions around, too. cold weather down to the fact that low pressure is out towards the east of the uk, opening the doors for these cold winds to come in from the arctic, so i think wind chill will be a significant factor through the next couple of days. next few hours, more of those snow showers pack in, particularly across the north of scotland. temperatures overnight

are falling to —2 or —3 widely, even in our towns and cities — colder than that in the countryside. through monday, then, more snow showers across the northern half of scotland, gales up towards shetland still and some snow and icy conditions across northern ireland, so we have got yellow warnings in force here. could be the odd wintry shower around exposed parts of these irish sea coasts, perhaps around the east coast of england, down towards norfolk and the north york moors. temperatures for most of us about 2—5 degrees but when you add on that wind chill, it is going to feel bitterly cold. it'll feel more like —7 or even —8 across the north—east of scotland. as we continue through monday evening and overnight into tuesday, we're watching this area of low pressure, this weather system, which moves its way from west to east across the northern half of the uk. now, that could cause a bit of disruption on tuesday. tuesday morning, we're expecting snow to be quite persistent through the central belt of scotland — could be about 2—5cm of snow here, pushing slowly across scotland. across the higher ground, there could be 10cm to even 20cm of snow on tuesday. a mix of rain, sleet and snow for northern ireland and for northern england, too.

we've got some sleet, some snow over the higher ground. it looks drier with some sunshine further south but tuesday, again, feels cold wherever you are. into the middle of the week, we're keeping a close eye on this area of low pressure. most of the computer models keep it over france but we've got the cold air in place with those northerly winds across the uk. if this system's a bit further north, we could see some snow around southern counties of england for a time, but i think it will predominantly be heavy snow showers again for the north of scotland, northern ireland and around any of those coasts exposed to that northerly wind. it is going to feel cold again, not quite as windy, but temperatures only a few degrees above freezing. more wintry showers for many of us on thursday. perhaps a little milder for some of us, though, by friday.

live from london, this is bbc news. tensions in the red sea escalate. the us says its shot down a missile fired from houthi militant areas of yemen targeted at a us destroyer. weighing up global risk: world leaders from buiness and politics gather in davos for the world economic forum. talks to end wars in gaza and ukraine are expected to top the agenda. today is blue monday, with the latest research showing only1 in 4 brits are happy at work. dragon's den debora meaden will bejoining us live with her top tips on how

to kick the blues. plus, the art of organising: i talk to marie kondo, the japanese business woman who has made a fortune from decluttering. we start with the latest on global supply chains that are facing severe disruption in the red sea. the us military says its forces shot down a cruise missile fired at an american destroyer warship from houthi controlled areas of yemen on sunday. this latest attack appears to be the first against a us destroyer and comes as the prime minister rishi sunak prepares to brief parliament today on fridays military action in yemen. foreign secretary david cameron

has said the uk is "prepared to back our words with actions"