our panel this hour — amanda renteria, policy director for the clinton campaign in 2016, miles taylor, who served as the chief of staff in homeland security in the trump administration, and political analyst brian stelter. good evening. we will get to matters in iowa very shortly, but let's focus for a short while on events in the middle east and the fate of the israeli hostages. last night, hamas published a video showing three of the hostages. two of them — 53—year—old yossi sharabi and 38—year—old itai svirsky — spoke in that recording and asked for the israeli government to free them from gaza. we don't know when that was filmed, but at the end of the video, hamas said they would reveal today what had happened to those hostages. and now we have the follow—up narrated by a third hostage who would appear to still be alive, who says the other two were killed in israeli air strikes. it is important to stress that the hostage is speaking under

duress and that hamas has provided no evidence for that claim that these two men were killed in israeli air strikes, but clearly deeply upsetting for all the families concerned. israel says more than 100 hostages are still being held by hamas. and there is no sign, as yet, that negotiations to free them are making any progress. let's go live to oliver mcternan, director of forward thinking, who has worked in hostage negotiation for over 20 years. he played a key role in the negotiations surrounding the release of the israeli soldier gilad shalit, held hostage by hamas for five years. good to have you back on the programme tonight is a very sad circumstances without the israeli army said tonight to hamas media was the brutal use of innocent hostages. how do you think it will affect the debate in israel? will it harden the resolve of the israeli government or put more pressure on them? first of

all, put more pressure on them? first of all. christian. _ put more pressure on them? first of all, christian, i— put more pressure on them? first of all, christian, ithink_ put more pressure on them? first of all, christian, ithink is _ all, christian, i think is important to say that what we've seen is morally wrong, to use hostages in this way. because is not only abusive them as persons, but also the terrible trauma it must have created for the families. but i think it's also politically misguided because it's eight total distraction from the reality of daily life in gaza, where 2.3 million people are living in life—threatening and life—changing conditions. and i think they've decide to from that reality. i don't think it will put pressure on the israeli government because i think the current israeli government are intent in pursuing their military objective, and i think to do that as i said 100 days ago when we spoke is really to put the lives of hostages at risk. ., , ., .,

really to put the lives of hostages at risk. .,, ., ., ., at risk. people said to me on social media, at risk. people said to me on social media. all— at risk. people said to me on social media. all of— at risk. people said to me on social media, all of her, _ at risk. people said to me on social media, all of her, and _ at risk. people said to me on social media, all of her, and sometimes i at risk. people said to me on social. media, all of her, and sometimes not in the kindest ways but they say why do you never make the point that if hamas released these hostages, the war would end? would it? i hamas released these hostages, the war would end? would it?— war would end? would it? i think that's rather— war would end? would it? i think that's rather naive _ war would end? would it? i think that's rather naive because - war would end? would it? i think that's rather naive because we i war would end? would it? i think| that's rather naive because we are forgetting this conflict is 75 years old, and it's not going to end with the release of the hostages, sadly. having the only way this war will end is with the end of occupation, and a serious attempt to try and address the issues politically rather than this cycle of violence. in the 20 years i've worked in the region, this is the fifth ward we've seen, and itjust is repeat, repeat, repeat. this is terrific, and i think it should be this war between israel and palestine should be the

war the ends all conflict and brings both sides to the realisation you cannot afford to hughes human life in this way. what's this really needed now is an inclusive process that can bring security to both sides. you are not going to have security for the israeli to this sort of action nor are you going to find the palestinian independence. it has to be through the political process and negotiation, serious negotiation, notjust playing at it as we've witnessed over many years, since oslo. it's been a game.- since oslo. it's been a game. that's entirely separate _ since oslo. it's been a game. that's entirely separate to _ since oslo. it's been a game. that's entirely separate to the _ entirely separate to the negotiations going on right now for another release of hostages. where would you say that is right now? i'll we at a stalemate? christian, i don't like it's _ i'll we at a stalemate? christian, i don't like it's going _ i'll we at a stalemate? christian, i don't like it's going anywhere. - i'll we at a stalemate? christian, i don't like it's going anywhere. i i don't like it's going anywhere. i don't like it's going anywhere. i don't think there is any serious effort at the moment to really engage, both sides of i think qatar

has reached out and the egyptians have reached out and tried to do it, to put four proposals and they've been rejected. for me, the sign of a serious attempt to release the hostages will be when there is a cease—fire, and ifear hostages will be when there is a cease—fire, and i fear that hostages will be when there is a cease—fire, and ifear that will only come through one person making it clear it has to happen and that isjoe biden. it clear it has to happen and that is joe biden-_ is joe biden. good to get your thou~hts is joe biden. good to get your thoughts always, _ is joe biden. good to get your thoughts always, thank - is joe biden. good to get your thoughts always, thank you i is joe biden. good to get your i thoughts always, thank you very is joe biden. good to get your - thoughts always, thank you very much for coming in this evening. let's bring in the panel now. miles, the us secretary of state spoke to the families of american hostages to impress on them they were still a priority and i wonder how this will play in washington tonight, this video cam it was suggested to moura been killed. i video cam it was suggested to moura been killed. ~ �* , ., ., been killed. i think it's going to make it harder— been killed. i think it's going to make it harder for _ been killed. i think it's going to make it harder for the - make it harder for the biden administration to do what it's trying — administration to do what it's trying to— administration to do what it's trying to do in israel, which is that_ trying to do in israel, which is that the — trying to do in israel, which is that the cemetery terry estate has been _ that the cemetery terry estate has been over—

that the cemetery terry estate has been over there four times since the conflict _ been over there four times since the conflict began with the goal of trying — conflict began with the goal of trying to— conflict began with the goal of trying to get israel to walk back, lower_ trying to get israel to walk back, lower in— trying to get israel to walk back, lower in their words the high intensity— lower in their words the high intensity phase of the campaign and create _ intensity phase of the campaign and create some breathing room with a cease-fire — create some breathing room with a cease—fire. that seems unlikely. in fact as _ cease—fire. that seems unlikely. in fact as much — cease—fire. that seems unlikely. in fact as much as the biden administration has been trying to ur-e administration has been trying to urge the — administration has been trying to urge the israeli government to do this through diplomacy, it is not seem _ this through diplomacy, it is not seem like — this through diplomacy, it is not seem like benjamin netanyahu is willing _ seem like benjamin netanyahu is willing to — seem like benjamin netanyahu is willing to yield. and what's more, the political positions that both netanyahu and joe biden are in in the short— netanyahu and joe biden are in in the short term are leading both to essentially dig in on their positions. i mean for benjamin netanyahu, a hard—line position on gaza i_ netanyahu, a hard—line position on gaza i think— netanyahu, a hard—line position on gaza i think in his eyes is the key to his _ gaza i think in his eyes is the key to his political survival. and for biden, — to his political survival. and for biden, he — to his political survival. and for biden, he cannot afford to go to hard _ biden, he cannot afford to go to hard in — biden, he cannot afford to go to hard in one _ biden, he cannot afford to go to hard in one direction or the other. given_ hard in one direction or the other. given the — hard in one direction or the other. given the intensity of the fervor on both sides — given the intensity of the fervor on both sides here in the united states — both sides here in the united states. so at least politically

right — states. so at least politically right now it seems to be a stalemate in terms _ right now it seems to be a stalemate in terms of— right now it seems to be a stalemate in terms of getting the israelis to move _ in terms of getting the israelis to move in— in terms of getting the israelis to move in response to us pressure. i think move in response to us pressure. think we will move in response to us pressure. i think we will concern people in washington, amanda, is it might harden the resolve injerusalem, it might intensify the fighting, this but the point that have to be made is that no hostage, no one hostage has been released through fighting. they've not rescued anybody. they might have rescued just one soldier right at the very beginning but most of those who have been released have been released through negotiation. that's right, and what you were hearing — that's right, and what you were hearing from _ that's right, and what you were hearing from this _ that's right, and what you were | hearing from this administration that's right, and what you were i hearing from this administration is what _ hearing from this administration is what if— hearing from this administration is what if the — hearing from this administration is what if the plan _ hearing from this administration is what if the plan for _ hearing from this administration is what if the plan for that, _ hearing from this administration is what if the plan for that, what - what if the plan for that, what is the plan — what if the plan for that, what is the plan for— what if the plan for that, what is the plan for what _ what if the plan for that, what is the plan for what happens - what if the plan for that, what is the plan for what happens in - what if the plan for that, what isj the plan for what happens in the future? — the plan for what happens in the future? you _ the plan for what happens in the future? you are _ the plan for what happens in the future? you are going _ the plan for what happens in the future? you are going to- the plan for what happens in the future? you are going to see - the plan for what happens in the . future? you are going to see more increasing — future? you are going to see more increasing pressure _ future? you are going to see more increasing pressure here _ future? you are going to see more increasing pressure here when - increasing pressure here when these kinds _ increasing pressure here when these kinds of— increasing pressure here when these kinds of news — increasing pressure here when these kinds of news reports _ increasing pressure here when these kinds of news reports come - increasing pressure here when these kinds of news reports come out. - increasing pressure here when these kinds of news reports come out. i. kinds of news reports come out. i will also — kinds of news reports come out. i will also say — kinds of news reports come out. i will also say the _ kinds of news reports come out. i will also say the election - kinds of news reports come out. i will also say the election is - will also say the election is going to bring — will also say the election is going to bring this _ will also say the election is going to bring this conversation - will also say the election is going to bring this conversation to - will also say the election is going to bring this conversation to thel to bring this conversation to the forefront — to bring this conversation to the forefront. just _ to bring this conversation to the forefront. just a _ to bring this conversation to the forefront. just a couple - to bring this conversation to the forefront. just a couple of- to bring this conversation to the forefront. just a couple of daysl forefront. just a couple of days ago. _ forefront. just a couple of days ago. you — forefront. just a couple of days ago. you had _ forefront. just a couple of days ago. you had two— forefront. just a couple of days ago, you had two of— forefront. just a couple of days ago, you had two of the - forefront. just a couple of days ago, you had two of the big - forefront. just a couple of days l ago, you had two of the big front runners— ago, you had two of the big front runners or— ago, you had two of the big front runners or m _ ago, you had two of the big front runners or i'd say— ago, you had two of the big front runners or i'd say folks who - ago, you had two of the big front runners or i'd say folks who were in the republican— runners or i'd say folks who were in the republican primary— runners or i'd say folks who were in the republican primary talk - runners or i'd say folks who were in the republican primary talk exactlyj

the republican primary talk exactly about _ the republican primary talk exactly about this — the republican primary talk exactly about this and _ the republican primary talk exactly about this and they— the republican primary talk exactly about this and they were _ the republican primary talk exactly about this and they were more - about this and they were more hard-line _ about this and they were more hard—line and _ about this and they were more hard—line and connected - about this and they were more hard—line and connected to - about this and they were more - hard—line and connected to netanyahu and what _ hard—line and connected to netanyahu and what is _ hard—line and connected to netanyahu and what is or— hard—line and connected to netanyahu and what is or was— hard—line and connected to netanyahu and what is or was going _ hard—line and connected to netanyahu and what is or was going to— hard—line and connected to netanyahu and what is or was going to do. - hard—line and connected to netanyahu and what is or was going to do. that. and what is or was going to do. that puts a _ and what is or was going to do. that puts a different _ and what is or was going to do. that puts a different kind _ and what is or was going to do. that puts a different kind of pressure - puts a different kind of pressure starting — puts a different kind of pressure starting now _ puts a different kind of pressure starting now as _ puts a different kind of pressure starting now as well _ puts a different kind of pressure starting now as well on - puts a different kind of pressure starting now as well on the - puts a different kind of pressurel starting now as well on the biden administration. _ starting now as well on the biden administration. but— starting now as well on the biden administration. but i— starting now as well on the biden administration. but i think- starting now as well on the biden administration. but i think you i starting now as well on the biden. administration. but i think you will continue _ administration. but i think you will continue to— administration. but i think you will continue to see _ administration. but i think you will continue to see their— administration. but i think you will continue to see their careful - continue to see their careful navigation. _ continue to see their careful navigation, ratcheting - continue to see their careful| navigation, ratcheting things continue to see their careful - navigation, ratcheting things up and probably— navigation, ratcheting things up and probably not — navigation, ratcheting things up and probably not as _ navigation, ratcheting things up and probably not as fast _ navigation, ratcheting things up and probably not as fast as _ navigation, ratcheting things up and probably not as fast as the - probably not as fast as the international— probably not as fast as the international world - probably not as fast as the international world would i probably not as fast as the i international world would like probably not as fast as the - international world would like but they will— international world would like but they will do — international world would like but they will do it _ international world would like but they will do it thoughtfully - international world would like but they will do it thoughtfully and i international world would like but they will do it thoughtfully and in | they will do it thoughtfully and in a balanced — they will do it thoughtfully and in a balanced and _ they will do it thoughtfully and in a balanced and co—ordinate - they will do it thoughtfully and in a balanced and co—ordinate way. they will do it thoughtfully and in l a balanced and co—ordinate way but no doubt _ a balanced and co—ordinate way but no doubt it— a balanced and co—ordinate way but no doubt it is— a balanced and co—ordinate way but no doubt it is a _ a balanced and co—ordinate way but no doubt it is a tight _ a balanced and co—ordinate way but no doubt it is a tight rope _ a balanced and co—ordinate way but no doubt it is a tight rope for- no doubt it is a tight rope for biden— no doubt it is a tight rope for biden to _ no doubt it is a tight rope for biden to figure _ no doubt it is a tight rope for biden to figure out _ no doubt it is a tight rope for biden to figure out how - no doubt it is a tight rope for biden to figure out how did l biden to figure out how did you continue — biden to figure out how did you continue to— biden to figure out how did you continue to add _ biden to figure out how did you continue to add pressure - biden to figure out how did you continue to add pressure and l biden to figure out how did you continue to add pressure and itj continue to add pressure and it seemed — continue to add pressure and it seemed what— continue to add pressure and it seemed what works _ continue to add pressure and it seemed what works with - continue to add pressure and it - seemed what works with netanyahu i’i l ht seemed what works with netanyahu right now? — seemed what works with netanyahu riaht now? ,, . ., . , right now? separate to the negatives we not right now? separate to the negatives we got from — right now? separate to the negatives we got from gaza _ right now? separate to the negatives we got from gaza tonight, _ right now? separate to the negatives we got from gaza tonight, we've - right now? separate to the negatives we got from gaza tonight, we've also been focusing on events in the red sea. meanwhile, a us—owned cargo ship has been hit by a houthi missile off the coast of yemen. the gibraltar eagle was struck while sailing 100 miles off the gulf of aden. the owners, eagle bulk shipping, said as a result of the impact, the vessel suffered limited damage to a cargo hold which is filled with steel, but it is stable and it's heading out of the area. all crew are confirmed to be uninjured.

a houthi spokesman said the group now considers all american and british vessels to be hostile targets. in the commons this afternoon, the british prime minister said all 13 of their targets were hit during us—uk strikes last week. we will not hesitate, he said, to take further action if the houthi attacks continue. i want to be clear that these were limited strikes. they were carefully targeted at launch sites for drones and ballistic missiles to degrade the houthis�* capacity to make further attacks on international shipping. i can tell the house today that our initial assessment is that all 13 planned targets were destroyed. at the drone cruise missile base in bani, nine buildings were successfully hit. a further three buildings were hit at abs airfield, along with a cruise missile launcher caught in the open. we have seen no evidence thus far of civilian casualties, which we took great care to avoid. i know the whole house willjoin me in paying tribute to the incredible

bravery and professionalism of all our servicemen and women. we're nowjoined by former supreme allied commander of nato european allied command operations and four—star general philip breedlove. good to have you on the programme again. it seems pretty clear from today's incident that the houthis are going to continue to test our resolve also the question is how long the cycle goes on and to what extent american and british forces can reduce capabilities. what do you think? , ., ., ., ~ can reduce capabilities. what do you think? , ., ., ., ., think? first of all, thank you for havin: think? first of all, thank you for having me _ think? first of all, thank you for having me on — think? first of all, thank you for having me on most _ think? first of all, thank you for having me on most of _ think? first of all, thank you for having me on most of today - think? first of all, thank you for having me on most of today hasj think? first of all, thank you for - having me on most of today has been a notable _ having me on most of today has been a notable day with a us flag character being struck. minor damage we have _ character being struck. minor damage we have with the fact of the matter is it was— we have with the fact of the matter is it was struck. i think that we need _ is it was struck. i think that we need to remember that all roads lead from and _ need to remember that all roads lead from and all roads lead back to ban _ from and all roads lead back to ban and — from and all roads lead back to iran. and so we expect that iran

will continue to put these very specific— will continue to put these very specific capabilities into the hands of the _ specific capabilities into the hands of the houthis. and they will continue _ of the houthis. and they will continue to threaten. now on the flip side — continue to threaten. now on the flip side of— continue to threaten. now on the flip side of the problem, i think you would — flip side of the problem, i think you would probably if you are among the houthis here today that they would _ the houthis here today that they would understand that they have come through— would understand that they have come through now some very precise, some very well— through now some very precise, some very well informed, good intelligence style targeting and that very good near and their capabilities are going to be taken by these — capabilities are going to be taken by these strikes. whether we have the stick— by these strikes. whether we have the stick to— by these strikes. whether we have the stick to have this to stay with this long — the stick to have this to stay with this long enough to change their behaviour, that is a political decision— behaviour, that is a political decision that remains yet to be seen — decision that remains yet to be seen. ~ ., , ., ., decision that remains yet to be seen. ~ ., i. ., ., seen. while we have you, i want to talk about a —

seen. while we have you, i want to talk about a speech _ seen. while we have you, i want to talk about a speech that _ seen. while we have you, i want to talk about a speech that the - seen. while we have you, i want to l talk about a speech that the defence secretary here in the uk gave today. he talked about the world moving from postwar to a prewar world. have a listen. the world sent a very clear message to the iranian—backed houthis. - end you're illegal and unjustified actions. i stop risking innocent lives. cease threatening. the global economy. we could not have been . clearer with our warnings, which they chose to ignore, and enough was enough. i he went on in that speech to say that we are in an age of idealism and that has been replaced i think in recent weeks by a hard—headed realism. he said battle lines are being redrawn. the piece that was secured, the peace dividend that was secured, the peace dividend that was secured after world war ii is now open to question. what you think he is comparing for? we open to question. what you think he is comparing for?— is comparing for? we are beginning to see it unfold, _

is comparing for? we are beginning to see it unfold, are _ is comparing for? we are beginning to see it unfold, are we _ is comparing for? we are beginning to see it unfold, are we not? i is comparing for? we are beginning| to see it unfold, are we not? russia continues— to see it unfold, are we not? russia continues to — to see it unfold, are we not? russia continues to amass its armies, march across— continues to amass its armies, march across internationally recognised borders, — across internationally recognised borders, invade and subjugate its neighbours. and that has yet to be resolved — neighbours. and that has yet to be resolved. we have this conflict which — resolved. we have this conflict which threatens to grow in gaza and in and _ which threatens to grow in gaza and in and around israel. that has yet to be _ in and around israel. that has yet to be resolved. and now we see iran looking _ to be resolved. and now we see iran looking at— to be resolved. and now we see iran looking at all the places that the west— looking at all the places that the west is— looking at all the places that the west is tied up and now has decided to push— west is tied up and now has decided to push its— west is tied up and now has decided to push its houthis to be the next in the _ to push its houthis to be the next in the line — to push its houthis to be the next in the line of attack. and so there seems _ in the line of attack. and so there seems to— in the line of attack. and so there seems to be a law of concern that we have been— seems to be a law of concern that we have been not proactive enough for some _ have been not proactive enough for some time — have been not proactive enough for some time now, that we have lost deterrence — some time now, that we have lost deterrence in the conventional sense and many— deterrence in the conventional sense and many of these areas. and we are going _ and many of these areas. and we are going to _ and many of these areas. and we are going to have to regain deterrence

and it— going to have to regain deterrence and it regain the initiative, which our opponents hold in each case now. general, _ our opponents hold in each case now. general, good to get your thoughts always come with you very much for coming on the programme as ever. miles picking up on that thought, if you look back at the last weekend we took about iowa much more in the programme but obviously there is a very real chance that trump is an ex—president. if you look at the last three years, we have had a global pandemic, we have had an invasion on your apartment borders and we now have a war in the middle east. and in light of that defence —— meets the defence router gave you today, i wonder how the western alliance would see another presidency of donald trump? i think it's really unclear, _ presidency of donald trump? i think it's really unclear, and _ presidency of donald trump? i think it's really unclear, and i _ presidency of donald trump? i think it's really unclear, and i think- it's really unclear, and i think that's the worry. well, let me clarify my remarks. i think western governments are afraid of a donald trump residency because his foreign policy in circumstances like this would be unclear. we know that

donald trump's second term would be eight foreign policy of chaos. he has signalled in some ways that he would distance himself from the western alliance, a number of its key allies have reinforced the fact that donald trump will consider pulling out of nato and that would very likely throw a wrench into any of these different conflicts at the moment. just look off the coast of yemen where the us pulled out of nato, it would not be collaborating with the uk on these types of strikes with them i don't know if you will be taking action at all if donald trump were president. that kind of uncertainty, that kind of chaos from the united states i think really worries western governments right now given all of the hotspots that are emerging around the world. amanda, we have a piece in the bbc online page this week and it's worth a read for our viewers who might want to go and have a look at it, but she said the us cannot tickle any of those things without strong global alliances which is why the

world positive reaction in this election does notjust matter to the rest of the world, it matters to america, too. that it's in a way the point she is making is that we all depend on one another and it's this america first agenda which threatens so much in the world right now. that's exactly right. and you are seeing _ that's exactly right. and you are seeing biden come out and talking about— seeing biden come out and talking about saving democracy and democracy is it state _ about saving democracy and democracy is it state notjust here but around the world, — is it state notjust here but around the world, and when he says that it matters _ the world, and when he says that it matters that he talks about our allies. our— matters that he talks about our allies, ouralliances matters that he talks about our allies, our alliances that we are building — allies, our alliances that we are building for some is also part of his administration of really strengthening and bringing that back _ strengthening and bringing that back. mitsova gets to very heart in this election of is this going to be a country— this election of is this going to be a country that is going to support democracy— a country that is going to support democracy globally or is this the country— democracy globally or is this the country that is going to simply support— country that is going to simply support donald trump anything he's willing _ support donald trump anything he's willing to _ support donald trump anything he's willing to do, including leading a volatile — willing to do, including leading a volatile global world. and that's what _ volatile global world. and that's what we're talking about here and you will— what we're talking about here and you will hear more about this on the campaign _

you will hear more about this on the campaign trail, certainly hard to break— campaign trail, certainly hard to break through in a primary but no doubt _ break through in a primary but no doubt you — break through in a primary but no doubt you are already seeing the seeds— doubt you are already seeing the seeds planted by biden to talk about this in— seeds planted by biden to talk about this in a _ seeds planted by biden to talk about this in a much bigger, say democracy kind of— this in a much bigger, say democracy kind of way— this in a much bigger, say democracy kind of way because it's truth was about— kind of way because it's truth was about think everyone his administration and who have been following — administration and who have been following this closely recognise the importance of the selection and that everyone _ importance of the selection and that everyone will truly be watching. it does reinforce will be in talking about iowa tonightjust what is at stake in this pivotal election in 2024. so stake in this pivotal election in 202a. so much news in the middle east today but the other side of the break we will talk about iowa. donald trump's grip on the party about to be put to the test. the caucuses due to open in less than three hours' time. our clinical analyst has joined us when we have thoughts on all that other side of the break. you are watching bbc news. which gives us a chance to look at a few of the stories here in the uk. two men have beenjailed for life for the murder of a 14—year—old girl a review has found that vulnerable

young girls are left at the mercy of paedophile games in manchester for years. police and council officials have apologised and said these types of cases are handled very differently now. two men have beenjailed for life for the murder of a 14—year—old girl in west dunbartonshire in 1996. robert o'brien and andrew kelly arranged to meet caroline glachan and then repeatedly punched, kicked and threw bricks at her. a woman has also been found guilty of the murder, but has yet to be sentenced. junior doctors in wales have begun three days of industrial action over their pay. thousands of appointments and operations have been cancelled. the welsh government says urgent care will continue, but it has urged people to avoid going to hospital unless necessary. there are around 4000 junior doctors in wales making up 40% of the medical workforce. you're live with bbc news. unless the polls are monumentally wrong, then donald trump appears to have an iowa victory in hand,

something that eluded him in 2016 when he narrowly lost the iowa caucuses to senator ted cruz of texas. the only real suspense tonight is how high he runs up the score on desantis and haley. it is a bitterly cold night in the midwest. when voting gets under way 7pm local time, it will feel like —40 degrees in north—western iowa, —30 in the state capital des moines. and yet in spite of all, it's been a frenetic end to the campaign. but these caucuses are your personal chance to score the ultimate victory over all of the liars, cheaters, thugs, perverts, frauds, crooks, freaks, creeps and other quite nice people. so if you want to save america from crooked joe biden, you must go caucus tomorrow. the first step, it's really the first step. we've got to do it. we've got to do it big. you've got to get out. you can't sit home!

if you're sick as a dog, you say, "darling, i've got to make it." even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it, remember. nobody can predict what the electorate is ultimately going to look like tomorrow. you just can't do it given these conditions and given everything that's coming on. so the best thing for us to do is not to get caught up in that, butjust keep doing what we've been doing. turn out these folks, they're fired up, they're ready to go. i'm fired up, i'm ready to go. and that, i think, is how you have a really good night, so we're looking forward to that. thank you. i think president trump was the right president| at the right time. i agree with a lot of his policies, but rightly or wrongly, - chaos follows him. you know i'm right. chaos follows him, and we can't be i a country in disarray and a world i on fire and go through four more years of chaos _ we won't survive it. ona night like

on a night like this, unifier like miles taylor has there in the background. stay indoors and keep warm. if trump hits 50%, then of course the notion republicans are hungry for an alternative becomes far less believable. the former president could head to new hampshire in eight days' time with an air of invincibility. the question in these sort of temperatures is how many will turn out to vote. although we should remember in the more remote rural areas, the farming community are well used to this sort of weather. we take caucusing very serious, as do most iowans, and we will make it. i mean, i've already heard that snowplows are going to roar on monday to make sure that we can get out from our homes to get to caucus and stuff. and ifind it interesting because two of the candidates that are running have already sent precautionary notes and things like... either through e—mail or through text, things like, "arrive early so you can get through the lines quicker. put on several, multiple layers of clothing to stay warm and protect yourself." it's a challenge, and to me i think it's an awesome way to see what their tenacity is and what their desire is and how

much and how willing and what extremes they want to go to for this whole caucus. donald trump was on the offensive this afternoon on truth social, and i guess if someone is attacking you is because you are doing something right.— you is because you are doing somethin: riuht. . , . ,, something right. yes, he is talking about his polls _ something right. yes, he is talking about his polls saying _ something right. yes, he is talking about his polls saying he _ something right. yes, he is talking about his polls saying he is - something right. yes, he is talking about his polls saying he is 57 i about his polls saying he is 57 points ahead of nikki haley. he is not trying — points ahead of nikki haley. he is not trying to lower expectations or push _ not trying to lower expectations or push the _ not trying to lower expectations or push the expectations down. he said to be leaning into them because as you said _ to be leaning into them because as you said that's all that ultimately matters — you said that's all that ultimately matters here is how wide is his lead and how— matters here is how wide is his lead and how much does he win by. i think he would _ and how much does he win by. i think he would love — and how much does he win by. i think he would love nothing more than to id he would love nothing more than to go out _ he would love nothing more than to go out of— he would love nothing more than to go out of iowa and go to new hampshire and say i'm already the nominee — hampshire and say i'm already the nominee. let's stop bothering with these _ nominee. let's stop bothering with these races — nominee. let's stop bothering with these races and let'sjust acknowledge the reality that i'm the nominee _ acknowledge the reality that i'm the nominee. that's what he wants and we saw him _ nominee. that's what he wants and we saw him do _ nominee. that's what he wants and we saw him do this on election night in 2020 _ saw him do this on election night in 2020 was _

saw him do this on election night in 2020 was a — saw him do this on election night in 2020 was a very late at night he came _ 2020 was a very late at night he came in— 2020 was a very late at night he came in and said he'd already won the election before we knew that he had lost _ the election before we knew that he had lost it — the election before we knew that he had lost it. so i think we might see something — had lost it. so i think we might see something similar from him again this time — something similar from him again this time were he tries to prematurely declare victory and say we don't _ prematurely declare victory and say we don't need to bother voting in the rest — we don't need to bother voting in the rest of— we don't need to bother voting in the rest of these primaries and of course nikki haley and ron desantis will fight _ course nikki haley and ron desantis will fight back on that. you might've — will fight back on that. you might've seen _ will fight back on that. you might've seen a _ will fight back on that. you might've seen a picture i will fight back on that. m. might've seen a picture of you flesh out there on the screen, miles taylor, at the beginning of the 2016 administration. there it is now and never forgive you for putting your thumb up. just why is it do you think when they're people like you who were part of the administration, who were part of the administration, who saw it first—hand within the white house, speaking out against this that trump voters remain so fanatical and that's the word for it? you look at enthusiasm in this poll, they are hugely enthusiastic about and vote form. you poll, they are hugely enthusiastic about and vote form.— poll, they are hugely enthusiastic about and vote form. you cannot even overstated and — about and vote form. you cannot even overstated and i _ about and vote form. you cannot even overstated and i think— about and vote form. you cannot even overstated and i think the _ about and vote form. you cannot even overstated and i think the best - overstated and i think the best example — overstated and i think the best example of— overstated and i think the best example of that _ overstated and i think the best example of that was _ overstated and i think the best example of that was in - overstated and i think the best example of that was in just i overstated and i think the bestj example of that was in just the overstated and i think the best i example of that was in just the past 24 hours _

example of that was in just the past 24 hours poils— example of that was in just the past 24 hours. polls have _ example of that was in just the past 24 hours. polls have shown- example of that was in just the past 24 hours. polls have shown that i example of that was in just the pastj 24 hours. polls have shown that the vast majority — 24 hours. polls have shown that the vast majority of _ 24 hours. polls have shown that the vast majority of republican - vast majority of republican caucus goers _ vast majority of republican caucus goers in _ vast majority of republican caucus goers in iowa _ vast majority of republican caucus goers in iowa say— vast majority of republican caucus goers in iowa say even _ vast majority of republican caucus goers in iowa say even if- vast majority of republican caucus goers in iowa say even if donald i goers in iowa say even if donald trump _ goers in iowa say even if donald trump is — goers in iowa say even if donald trump is convicted _ goers in iowa say even if donald trump is convicted that - goers in iowa say even if donald trump is convicted that would i goers in iowa say even if donald i trump is convicted that would not affect _ trump is convicted that would not affect their — trump is convicted that would not affect their support— trump is convicted that would not affect their support for— trump is convicted that would not affect their support for him. - trump is convicted that would not affect their support for him. nowi affect their support for him. now think— affect their support for him. now think about — affect their support for him. now think about that _ affect their support for him. now think about that for— affect their support for him. now think about that for a _ affect their support for him. now think about that for a moment i think about that for a moment because — think about that for a moment because for— think about that for a moment because for really— think about that for a moment because for really long - think about that for a moment because for really long time, i because for really long time, christian. _ because for really long time, christian. a _ because for really long time, christian, a lot _ because for really long time, christian, a lot of— because for really long time, christian, a lot of folks - because for really long time, christian, a lot of folks have i christian, a lot of folks have predicted _ christian, a lot of folks have predicted any _ christian, a lot of folks have predicted any number- christian, a lot of folks have predicted any number of- christian, a lot of folks have i predicted any number of barriers christian, a lot of folks have - predicted any number of barriers was stopped _ predicted any number of barriers was stopped donald — predicted any number of barriers was stopped donald trump _ predicted any number of barriers was stopped donald trump from - predicted any number of barriers was stopped donald trump from getting i stopped donald trump from getting back to _ stopped donald trump from getting back to the — stopped donald trump from getting back to the white _ stopped donald trump from getting back to the white house _ stopped donald trump from getting back to the white house but - stopped donald trump from getting back to the white house but one i stopped donald trump from getting back to the white house but one of| back to the white house but one of those _ back to the white house but one of those last — back to the white house but one of those last barriers— back to the white house but one of those last barriers that _ back to the white house but one of those last barriers that his- those last barriers that his opponents _ those last barriers that his opponents have _ those last barriers that his| opponents have predicted, those last barriers that his— opponents have predicted, especially on the _ opponents have predicted, especially on the left, _ opponents have predicted, especially on the left, is— opponents have predicted, especially on the left, is if— opponents have predicted, especially on the left, is if he _ opponents have predicted, especially on the left, is if he is _ opponents have predicted, especially on the left, is if he is convicted - on the left, is if he is convicted the republicans _ on the left, is if he is convicted the republicans will— on the left, is if he is convicted the republicans will abandon i on the left, is if he is convicted i the republicans will abandon him. and here — the republicans will abandon him. and here we — the republicans will abandon him. and here we see _ the republicans will abandon him. and here we see in— the republicans will abandon him. and here we see in the _ the republicans will abandon him. and here we see in the first - the republicans will abandon him. i and here we see in the first primary state _ and here we see in the first primary state in _ and here we see in the first primary state in the — and here we see in the first primary state in the nation, _ and here we see in the first primary state in the nation, caucus- and here we see in the first primary state in the nation, caucus goers. state in the nation, caucus goers saying _ state in the nation, caucus goers saying we — state in the nation, caucus goers saying we won't _ state in the nation, caucus goers saying we won't abandon - state in the nation, caucus goers saying we won't abandon him i state in the nation, caucus goers saying we won't abandon him if. state in the nation, caucus goers. saying we won't abandon him if he state in the nation, caucus goers- saying we won't abandon him if he is convicted _ saying we won't abandon him if he is convicted that — saying we won't abandon him if he is convicted. that is _ saying we won't abandon him if he is convicted. that is i _ saying we won't abandon him if he is convicted. that is i think— saying we won't abandon him if he is convicted. that is i think the - saying we won't abandon him if he is convicted. that is i think the best i convicted. that is i think the best display— convicted. that is i think the best display of— convicted. that is i think the best display of the _ convicted. that is i think the best display of the fanaticism - convicted. that is i think the best display of the fanaticism around i display of the fanaticism around donald — display of the fanaticism around donald trump _ display of the fanaticism around donald trump and _ display of the fanaticism around donald trump and it _ display of the fanaticism around donald trump and it really- display of the fanaticism around donald trump and it really is a i donald trump and it really is a concern — donald trump and it really is a concern i_ donald trump and it really is a concern. i think— donald trump and it really is a concern. i think there - donald trump and it really is a concern. i think there are i donald trump and it really is a concern. i think there are very| concern. i think there are very few things— concern. i think there are very few things in— concern. i think there are very few things in fact — concern. i think there are very few things in fact they— concern. i think there are very few things in fact they could _ concern. i think there are very few things in fact they could stop i concern. i think there are very few things in fact they could stop thisi things in fact they could stop this man in— things in fact they could stop this man in my— things in fact they could stop this man in my view— things in fact they could stop this man in my view from _ things in fact they could stop this man in my view from getting i things in fact they could stop this man in my view from getting the| man in my view from getting the nomination— man in my view from getting the nomination and _ man in my view from getting the nomination and of— man in my view from getting the nomination and of course - man in my view from getting the i nomination and of course potentially winning _ nomination and of course potentially winning the — nomination and of course potentially winning the presidency— nomination and of course potentially winning the presidency and - nomination and of course potentially winning the presidency and as - nomination and of course potentially winning the presidency and as i've i winning the presidency and as i've been _ winning the presidency and as i've been saying — winning the presidency and as i've been saying for— winning the presidency and as i've been saying for years, _ winning the presidency and as i've been saying for years, it's - winning the presidency and as i've been saying for years, it's a - winning the presidency and as i've been saying for years, it's a five i been saying for years, it's a five alarm _ been saying for years, it's a five alarm fire — been saying for years, it's a five alarm fire for— been saying for years, it's a five alarm fire for democracy- been saying for years, it's a five. alarm fire for democracy because been saying for years, it's a five i alarm fire for democracy because a second _ alarm fire for democracy because a second term — alarm fire for democracy because a second term will— alarm fire for democracy because a second term will be _ alarm fire for democracy because a second term will be vastly- alarm fire for democracy because a | second term will be vastly different

than a _ second term will be vastly different than a first—term _ second term will be vastly different than a first—term and _ second term will be vastly different than a first—term and it _ second term will be vastly different than a first—term and it will - second term will be vastly different than a first—term and it will be i second term will be vastly different than a first—term and it will be no l than a first—term and it will be no holds _ than a first—term and it will be no holds barred _ than a first—term and it will be no holds barred. find— than a first-term and it will be no holds barred.— holds barred. and yet if you look at the polling. — holds barred. and yet if you look at the polling, amanda, _ holds barred. and yet if you look at the polling, amanda, there - holds barred. and yet if you look at the polling, amanda, there are i holds barred. and yet if you look at i the polling, amanda, there are eight fairly significant number of republicans who say he will make a difference to them if he were convicted. so when that vein, how important is finishing second in iowa tonight for nikki haley if it is her? i iowa tonight for nikki haley if it is her? ~ ., , iowa tonight for nikki haley if it is her? ~ . , . ,., is her? i think anything that sort of shows momentum _ is her? i think anything that sort of shows momentum other i is her? i think anything that sort of shows momentum other than | is her? i think anything that sort i of shows momentum other than trump is important for the long—term story here, but i am with everyone on this panel, which is it's pretty hard to say that anything can stop trump this point, the matter how many times he is in court instead of campaigning, no matter what he says, people do follow. and i think that's an important piece and i don't actually think the democratic party believes if he is convicted that his followers will go away for so i think quite the opposite is i think everyone is preparing for this is the long haul, we do have a very different kind of election with a

base that will follow in any case and do whatever it takes. ok. base that will follow in any case and do whatever it takes. ok, up auainst a and do whatever it takes. ok, up against a brick _ and do whatever it takes. ok, up against a brick and _ and do whatever it takes. ok, up against a brick and we _ and do whatever it takes. ok, up against a brick and we will i and do whatever it takes. ok, up against a brick and we will talk i against a brick and we will talk plenty more in the next half an hour about iowa so stay with us. we will have another gas from his unit is in about some of the polling and we are right back after the break. hello there. over the last day or two, we have seen some problems due to snowfall across northern areas of scotland, but worse could be around the corner. and i think for tuesday, the threat of disruptive snow in scotland becomes much more widespread — more on that in a moment. overnight tonight, there will be plenty more of those snow showers packing in across northern scotland, with some further significant accumulations. it stays windy, so there'll be some further drifting of the snow and blizzard—like conditions at times. anotherfreezing cold night — —2 to —4 in the towns and cities, a lot colder than that, though, in the countryside. tomorrow, first of all, england and wales, for most areas, it's a dry day with plenty of sunshine. the sunshine won't do much for the temperatures — 3—4 celsius for many areas — however, further north, that's

where we're looking at the risk of some disruptive weather. an area of low pressure is set to move into this cold air with a spell of disruptive snow. now, the temperatures vary quite a bit across this weather system — for northern ireland, northern england and southern scotland, the air�*s a little bit milder, so there could be some rain mixed in with that, the snow will be heaviest over hills. whereas on the northern edge of this weather system, the air is cold enough to have the snow come right down to low elevations. and that means, through the central lowlands of scotland northwards, we're looking at some disruptive snow — 5—10cm, maybe even 20 in a few places, and, as well as those low—elevation snow totals, we are looking at similar amounts up over the southern uplands of scotland. and then, through tuesday evening, we'll see some snow arrive across the higher pennines, as well. so, there is the risk of some more widespread disruption, i think, through tuesday. central lowlands of scotland, northwards, and across the hills of the southern uplands — i think that's where we'll most likely see the biggest chance of disruption. some cars might get stranded

in the heaviest falls of snow. by wednesday, an area of low pressure comes in off the atlantic. now, there will be some snow on the northern edge, tickling southern england. the heaviest falls stay in europe 20—30cm over there — that means the most disruptive weather will be, again, across more northern portions of the uk. another five to as much as 20 centimetres of snow piling in across northern scotland, still with strong winds causing that snow to blow and drift around, as well. similar weather on the cards for thursday, but eventually, we do get out of the freezer. this weekend sees a return of wet and windy weather.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. republicans in iowa weigh in — on who should be their candidate in november's election — battling through the freezing temperatures. the real suspense tonight will be who comes in second place, and by how much. haley and ron desantis have been battling it out for the runners up spot for months.

and for desantis, this does have the make—or—break feel about it.