hello, i'm catrina perry. we are just 30 minutes away from the start of the first presidential contest of 202a. tonight, republican voters across 99 counties are battling bitterly cold temperatures to make their pick for their party's presidential nominee. but with donald trump maintaining his lead as the party's frontrunner — the focus has turned to race for second place as nikki haley and ron desantis battle to keep their campaigns afloat just as the 2024 race heats up. in 30 minutes, those caucuses will begin. live now to our north america correspondent gary 0'donoghue in van metre, iowa. gary, tell us what's happening there at the moment. this gary, tell us what's happening there at the moment.- gary, tell us what's happening there at the moment. this is in van metre. _ there at the moment. this is in van metre, and _ there at the moment. this is in van metre, and i'm _ there at the moment. this is in van metre, and i'm meeting i there at the moment. this is in | van metre, and i'm meeting two townships. this is a growing area and population terms, and they are expecting a robust

turn out to see people already arriving here. to tell us a bit about what will happen here tonight, i'mjoined by about what will happen here tonight, i'm joined by david young. david is a former congressman for the third district and iowa, also former chief of staff to chuck grassley, the senior senator, so he knows his iowa politics. what'll happen here tonight? in iowa, we don'tjust pick corn, but presidents, that's what we're — but presidents, that's what we're doing tonight. first to say hi — we're doing tonight. first to say hi to— we're doing tonight. first to say hi to your viewers and in being — say hi to your viewers and in being educated about what we do here, _ being educated about what we do here, it's — being educated about what we do here, it's a — being educated about what we do here, it's a very arduous process, _ here, it's a very arduous process, but it's also simple. candidates come in here and we kick the — candidates come in here and we kick the tires on them, it's like — kick the tires on them, it's like buying a car, we make them earn _ like buying a car, we make them earn our— like buying a car, we make them earn our vote. we will have about — earn our vote. we will have about 25% of registered voters in this— about 25% of registered voters in this area show up tonight despite _ in this area show up tonight despite the —15 celsius weather in the _ despite the —15 celsius weather in the three feet of snow. we take — in the three feet of snow. we take this _ in the three feet of snow. we take this very seriously and we will select a president. in 2016 in will select a president. in 2016 in this precinct, will select a president. ii�*u 2016 in this precinct, donald

trump squeaked in the second place and became second overall in the iowa caucus. he will be in the iowa caucus. he will be in it tonight? i in the iowa caucus. he will be in it tonight?— in it tonight? i believe he'll win, in it tonight? i believe he'll win. it's — in it tonight? i believe he'll win, it's all— in it tonight? i believe he'll win, it's all about - win, it's all about expectations. he sets high expectations. he sets high expectations for himself, and meeting _ expectations for himself, and meeting those expectations is doing — meeting those expectations is doing better. 0ther meeting those expectations is doing better. other candidates put out — doing better. other candidates put out their expectations as well, — put out their expectations as well, so _ put out their expectations as well, so it's a turnout and an expectations game, as well. youte — expectations game, as well. youte a _ expectations game, as well. you're a local resident so you get a vote out here tonight. you endorsed tim scott back in the summer and he's not in the race any more. what are the factors that have been weighing on you in the last few months? we've narrowed the process, we started — we've narrowed the process, we started out with 15 people, i endorsed tim scott in august at the state — endorsed tim scott in august at the state fair. but you look at a lot — the state fair. but you look at a lot of— the state fair. but you look at a lot of different things. where _ a lot of different things. where the candidate spending enough — where the candidate spending enough here, do they have a track— enough here, do they have a track record? are the genuine or nice? — track record? are the genuine or nice? are they bold, do you

agree — or nice? are they bold, do you agree with _ or nice? are they bold, do you agree with their policies, are they— agree with their policies, are they experienced, do they have good _ they experienced, do they have good judgment? they experienced, do they have goodjudgment? some iowans here tonight— goodjudgment? some iowans here tonight may not have paid as much — tonight may not have paid as much attention as they should but maybe they couldn't because i but maybe they couldn't because i had _ but maybe they couldn't because i had to — but maybe they couldn't because i had to work and have real iives — i had to work and have real iives 50— i had to work and have real lives. so it comes down to judgment, who do you think will come _ judgment, who do you think will come down and render a decision on the _ come down and render a decision on the big — come down and render a decision on the big issues in the world and in — on the big issues in the world and in america today to represent you?- and in america today to represent you? and in america today to reresent ou? . ~ , represent you? thank you very much. represent you? thank you very much- we _ represent you? thank you very much. we are _ represent you? thank you very much. we are expecting - represent you? thank you very l much. we are expecting possibly upwards of around 600 people here tonight. we will see how the snow affects all that. last time around, senator ted cruz won this precinct as he did the iowa caucus. very different races time around. we should be getting results here somewhere around 8:30pm or 9pm tonight. back to you. around 8:30pm or 9pm tonight. back to vom— over to you sumi. we'll leave coming back to you in a little bit more for similar coverage from iowa. we

have a great panel hearing me tonight to discuss everything that's happening. i'll go around the table with my great panel introduce everyone. former democratic congresswoman stephanie murphy. served florida's seventh congressional district from 2017 to 2023. former republican congressman rodney davis. served the 13th district of illinois from 2019 to 2023. katty kay is a us special correspondent for bbc studios, and the host of "influential with katty kay." and marc lotter. he's the chief communications officer at the america first policy institute. he served as the director of strategic communications for donald trump's 2020 campaign. we are all looking at how big is donald trump's lead going to be by the end of the night, that rates for that second place. but i'd like your take just for what you're looking out for in these iowa caucuses. i think tonight, both candidates are running against the same opponent, and that his expectations. so for the former president, how is he able to

preach that 50% mark and basically shut out the thesis that people have of how people might be able to win. who comes in second? does all the effort that ron desantis put into iowa manifest itself? did knocking on all those doors actually mean anything? but the one thing that is true is that all of them will have the weather to be able to scapegoat for any shortcomings that they have as it relates to their expectations that they set for their campaigns.— expectations that they set for their campaigns. that's a good oint, their campaigns. that's a good point. what's _ their campaigns. that's a good point, what's your _ their campaigns. that's a good point, what's your thought? i i point, what's your thought? i agree with what stephanie said, but it— agree with what stephanie said, but it comes down to the turnout _ but it comes down to the turnout. everyone always talks about — turnout. everyone always talks about elections, it's turnout. this— about elections, it's turnout. this is— about elections, it's turnout. this is hot— about elections, it's turnout. this is not an election like we are use — this is not an election like we are use to _ this is not an election like we are use to. we were on the ground — are use to. we were on the ground four years ago caucusing for president trump, this is the — for president trump, this is the grassroots of grass roots of caucuses. the weather will have — of caucuses. the weather will have an — of caucuses. the weather will have an impact, sol of caucuses. the weather will have an impact, so i think expectation wise, a lot of

things— expectation wise, a lot of things can change — i have my predictions for tonight but lots — predictions for tonight but lots can— predictions for tonight but lots can change based on who is coming — lots can change based on who is coming out, who they are voting for, coming out, who they are voting for. and — coming out, who they are voting for, and right now donald trump probably— for, and right now donald trump probably has the most energised voters _ probably has the most energised voters. |t— probably has the most energised voters. ., , , ~' probably has the most energised voters. ., , , ,, ., voters. it does seem like that, what do you — voters. it does seem like that, what do you think? _ voters. it does seem like that, what do you think? i _ voters. it does seem like that, what do you think? ithink- voters. it does seem like that, what do you think? i think if. what do you think? i think if we turnout _ what do you think? i think if we turnout 30,000 - what do you think? i think if we turnout 30,000 feet - what do you think? i think if| we turnout 30,000 feet and what do you think? i think if- we turnout 30,000 feet and look at this— we turnout 30,000 feet and look at this iowa — we turnout 30,000 feet and look at this iowa caucus, _ we turnout 30,000 feet and look at this iowa caucus, it's- at this iowa caucus, it's whether— at this iowa caucus, it's whether anyone - at this iowa caucus, it's whether anyone can. at this iowa caucus, it's whether anyone can be| at this iowa caucus, it's- whether anyone can be donald trump — whether anyone can be donald trump to— whether anyone can be donald trump to become _ whether anyone can be donald trump to become the - whether anyone can be donald. trump to become the nominee. thats— trump to become the nominee. that's the — trump to become the nominee. that's the big _ trump to become the nominee. that's the big question. - trump to become the nominee. that's the big question. it- that's the big question. doesn't look like it. that's the big question. it doesn't look like it. not i that's the big question. it| doesn't look like it. not at the moment, _ doesn't look like it. not at the moment, but- doesn't look like it. not at the moment, but if- doesn't look like it. not at the moment, but if we - doesn't look like it. not at i the moment, but if we came doesn't look like it. not at - the moment, but if we came out of this— the moment, but if we came out of this and — the moment, but if we came out of this and donald _ the moment, but if we came out of this and donald trump - the moment, but if we came out of this and donald trump is - of this and donald trump is worse — of this and donald trump is worse than _ of this and donald trump is worse than perhaps - of this and donald trump is worse than perhaps we - of this and donald trump is worse than perhaps we hadj worse than perhaps we had expected _ worse than perhaps we had exrrected on— worse than perhaps we had expected on caucus - worse than perhaps we had expected on caucus night, i worse than perhaps we had - expected on caucus night, then maybe — expected on caucus night, then maybe there's _ expected on caucus night, then maybe there's a _ expected on caucus night, then maybe there's a chance - maybe there's a chance for somebody— maybe there's a chance for somebody like _ maybe there's a chance for somebody like nikki - maybe there's a chance for somebody like nikki haley| maybe there's a chance for. somebody like nikki haley to heat — somebody like nikki haley to heat hint _ somebody like nikki haley to beat him. but— somebody like nikki haley to beat him. but the _ somebody like nikki haley to beat him. but the weather. somebody like nikki haley to beat him. but the weather is| beat him. but the weather is important. _ beat him. but the weather is important, it's— beat him. but the weather is important, it's colder- beat him. but the weather is important, it's colder today. beat him. but the weather isl important, it's colder today in iowa — important, it's colder today in iowa than _ important, it's colder today in iowa than in _ important, it's colder today in iowa than in moscow, - important, it's colder today in iowa than in moscow, which. iowa than in moscow, which gives— iowa than in moscow, which gives you _ iowa than in moscow, which gives you some _ iowa than in moscow, which gives you some sense - iowa than in moscow, which gives you some sense of. gives you some sense of perspective _ gives you some sense of perspective about - gives you some sense of perspective about how . gives you some sense of. perspective about how chilly gives you some sense of- perspective about how chilly it is — perspective about how chilly it is - i've — perspective about how chilly it is - i've treen— perspective about how chilly it is — i've been to— perspective about how chilly it is — i've been to cold - perspective about how chilly it is — i've been to cold iowa - is — i've been to cold iowa caucuses, _ is — i've been to cold iowa caucuses, but— is — i've been to cold iowa caucuses, but does - is — i've been to cold iowa caucuses, but does that l is — i've been to cold iowa - caucuses, but does that shuffle the race? — caucuses, but does that shuffle the race? i_

caucuses, but does that shuffle the race? i think— caucuses, but does that shuffle the race? i think the _ caucuses, but does that shuffle the race? i think the only- the race? i think the only thing _ the race? i think the only thing that— the race? i think the only thing that matters - the race? i think the onlyl thing that matters tonight the race? i think the only. thing that matters tonight in terms — thing that matters tonight in terms of— thing that matters tonight in terms of the _ thing that matters tonight in terms of the news _ thing that matters tonight in terms of the news is - thing that matters tonight in| terms of the news is whether donaid — terms of the news is whether donaid trunrp _ terms of the news is whether donald trump can _ terms of the news is whether donald trump can be - terms of the news is whether donald trump can be beatenl terms of the news is whether. donald trump can be beaten for the republican— donald trump can be beaten for the republican nomination. - donald trump can be beaten for the republican nomination. i. the republican nomination. don't think anyone has the energy to be able to take the nomination from him. this is his third iowa caucus, and they have a team in operation that is second to none, so they know everybody who caucused for them in 2016, who came in 2020, who attended our rally within a 900 mile radius of iowa, they probably been blowing up their e—mails about 25 times this weekend. i think the weather will hurt ron desantis in nikki haley more than donald trump. let's talk about this with everybody, it's been said that caucuses are not really about issues, but emotion, who you have a candidate that you identify with. are there issues that you think will stand out to the iowa caucus goers? it’s

to the iowa caucus goers? it's the economy, — to the iowa caucus goers? it�*s the economy, stupid, set famously by james carville back in 1992. but both leaders have been in the oval office, that's why not only do you see donald trump leading in the gop nomination, but you see him leading the national polls and in much of the swing states right now. what do you think, congressman davis? j what do you think, congressman davis? . a ~ what do you think, congressman davis? . ~ �* davis? i agree with mark, we'll win b a davis? i agree with mark, we'll win by a large _ davis? i agree with mark, we'll win by a large majority, - davis? i agree with mark, we'll win by a large majority, but. win by a large majority, but will— win by a large majority, but will he _ win by a large majority, but will he grab 50%? i do believe

that it — will he grab 50%? i do believe that it will be close in a hypothetical general election match— hypothetical general election match up, because once it's set, — match up, because once it's set, donald trump gets a viscerai— set, donald trump gets a visceral reaction from a certain— visceral reaction from a certain segment of voters who are not— certain segment of voters who are not voting tonight in the caucuses _ are not voting tonight in the caucuses— caucuses. that's what nikki haley has _ caucuses. that's what nikki haley has been _ caucuses. that's what nikki haley has been saying, - caucuses. that's what nikki haley has been saying, he. haley has been saying, he brings chaos with him. congresswoman, what do you think are the issues, knowing the voters out there in the iowa caucus goers are so passionate about politics, who do you think will stand out? you like send them strong

against china and these other countries as much as that plays a part in foreign politics will be easier as well. we a part in foreign politics will be easier as well.— a part in foreign politics will be easier as well. we know what issues are. _ be easier as well. we know what issues are, and _ be easier as well. we know what issues are, and i _ be easier as well. we know what issues are, and i think _ be easier as well. we know what issues are, and i think this - issues are, and i think this iowa — issues are, and i think this iowa caucus is a bit different from — iowa caucus is a bit different from the _ iowa caucus is a bit different from the others i have attended, because in those caucuses in previous years, i think— caucuses in previous years, i think issues were a bit more important. this isjust a republican caucus, which the democrats are not caucusing because — democrats are not caucusing because joe biden has shuffle the decks so all the focus is on the _ the decks so all the focus is on the republican party and it's about whether or not they want — it's about whether or not they want donald trump to be their nonrinee~ _ want donald trump to be their nominee. they have spoken in iowa _ nominee. they have spoken in iowa during the course of the last year— iowa during the course of the last year about things like the economy— last year about things like the economy and immigration things like foreign—policy and whether they are — like foreign—policy and whether they are tough on china, whether— they are tough on china, whether they were close the southern border, all those issues _ southern border, all those issues have come up, but in the end it's — issues have come up, but in the end it's a — issues have come up, but in the end it's a vote about whether you want _ end it's a vote about whether you want donald trump to be the standard—bearer of the

standard— bearer of the republican party standard—bearer of the republican party and fight the democrats for the white house in november, or whether you want — in november, or whether you want somebody else. some of the peopie _ want somebody else. some of the peopie in— want somebody else. some of the people in iowa was viscerally beiieved _ people in iowa was viscerally believed they want someone notes — believed they want someone notes and many of them are very in favor— notes and many of them are very in favor of— notes and many of them are very in favor of herand notes and many of them are very in favor of her and donald trunrp _ in favor of her and donald trump from renegade. congresswoman, when we hear from president biden, he is making this issue about democracy but he spoke on all of sharpton radio today about donald trump being undemocratic, is that the message do you think that will resonate with voters? i message do you think that will resonate with voters?- resonate with voters? i am someone _ resonate with voters? i am someone whose _ resonate with voters? i am someone whose family - resonate with voters? i am - someone whose family escaped resonate with voters? i am someone whose family escaped to come _ someone whose family escaped to come in _ someone whose family escaped to come in his— someone whose family escaped to come in his country, _ someone whose family escaped to come in his country, i— someone whose family escaped to come in his country, i served - come in his country, i served in a — come in his country, i served in a january— come in his country, i served in a january six— come in his country, i served in a january six committee, i come in his country, i servedl in a january six committee, to me democracy— in a january six committee, to me democracy is— in a january six committee, to me democracy is very - in a january six committee, to l me democracy is very important but i _ me democracy is very important but i have — me democracy is very important but i have been— me democracy is very important but i have been on— me democracy is very important but i have been on the - but i have been on the ballot and i— but i have been on the ballot and i know— but i have been on the ballot and i know voters _ but i have been on the ballot and i know voters can - but i have been on the ballot. and i know voters can be fickle and i know voters can be fickle and selfish. _ and i know voters can be fickle and selfish, and _ and i know voters can be fickle and selfish, and in— and i know voters can be fickle and selfish, and in the - and i know voters can be fickle and selfish, and in the sense l and selfish, and in the sense of seifish _ and selfish, and in the sense of selfish date _ and selfish, and in the sense of selfish date sure - and selfish, and in the sense of selfish date sure what - and selfish, and in the sense of selfish date sure what the| of selfish date sure what the polls — of selfish date sure what the polls and _ of selfish date sure what the polls and vote _ of selfish date sure what the polls and vote their- of selfish date sure what the polls and vote their pocket l of selfish date sure what the. polls and vote their pocket —— pocketbook _ polls and vote their pocket —— pocketbook issues, _ polls and vote their pocket —— pocketbook issues, not - polls and vote their pocket —— pocketbook issues, not the i pocketbook issues, not the ideological— pocketbook issues, not the ideological causes. - pocketbook issues, not the ideological causes. so, i pocketbook issues, not the i

ideological causes. so, people io ideological causes. so, people go to— ideological causes. so, people go to the — ideological causes. so, people go to the ballot _ ideological causes. so, people go to the ballot box _ ideological causes. so, people go to the ballot box and - ideological causes. so, people. go to the ballot box and wonder of my— go to the ballot box and wonder of my off— go to the ballot box and wonder of my off -- _ go to the ballot box and wonder of my off —— better— go to the ballot box and wonder of my off —— better off - go to the ballot box and wonder of my off —— better off today- of my off —— better off today that — of my off —— better off today that i— of my off —— better off today that i was _ of my off —— better off today that i was four— of my off —— better off today that i was four years - of my off —— better off today that i was four years ago? i that i was four years ago? there _ that i was four years ago? there sometime - that i was four years ago? there sometime for- that i was four years ago? there sometime for the i that i was four years ago? i there sometime for the biden administration _ there sometime for the biden administration to— there sometime for the biden administration to make - there sometime for the biden administration to make the i there sometime for the biden. administration to make the case that they— administration to make the case that they did _ administration to make the case that they did an _ administration to make the case that they did an incredible - that they did an incredible things— that they did an incredible things with _ that they did an incredible things with an _ that they did an incredible things with an enormous i things with an enormous headwind _ things with an enormous headwind that _ things with an enormous headwind that benefited | things with an enormous i headwind that benefited the american _ headwind that benefited the american people _ headwind that benefited the american people a - headwind that benefited the american people a month i headwind that benefited the i american people a month but will the — american people a month but will the american _ american people a month but will the american people i will the american people believe _ will the american people believe that? _ will the american people believe that?— will the american people believe that? what do you think, mark? _ believe that? what do you think, mark? the - believe that? what do you think, mark? the answer. believe that? what do you | think, mark? the answer is believe that? what do you i think, mark? the answer is no riaht think, mark? the answer is no right now- _ think, mark? the answer is no right now- if — think, mark? the answer is no right now. if you _ think, mark? the answer is no right now. if you look - think, mark? the answer is no right now. if you look at i think, mark? the answer is no right now. if you look at those | right now. if you look at those issues, going back to history, the biden campaign is playing this as a race of the last 30 years, where's the unemployment rates and the only thing we judge our economy on, we are in at 1918 reagan versus garza, where is inflation in prices, but the problem is even though inflation has gone down, it adds up. so if something rose to 50 last year, and only 50 cents this year, you're still paying $3 more,.— cents this year, you're still paying $3 more,. middle witches of also got _ paying $3 more,. middle witches of also got more, _ paying $3 more,. middle witches of also got more, so _ paying $3 more,. middle witches

of also got more, so -- - paying 33 more,. middle witches of also got more, so -- it- paying $3 more,. middle witches of also got more, so -- it that i of also got more, so —— it that is changing mark. the of also got more, so -- it that is changing mark.— of also got more, so -- it that is changing mark. the hope for the white houses _ is changing mark. the hope for the white houses that - is changing mark. the hope for the white houses that come i the white houses that come november, inflation will condone and interest rates will come — condone and interest rates will come down. condone and interest rates will come down-— condone and interest rates will come down. ~ �* , ., ., come down. we're “umping ahead to the general— come down. we're jumping ahead to the general election. _ come down. we're jumping ahead to the general election. i - come down. we're jumping ahead to the general election. i look- to the general election. i look at your predictions or look is at your predictions or look is a bit of foreign policy, stay right there and will come back to you and i want to look at another key issue impacting us policy, the war in ukraine. give says there is a sophisticated shutdown of our russian plane and and is to say would be a blow to moscow's power. there is this video of readers disappearing. according to some reports the other aircraft was damaged but it managed to land, the 850 is a high—value target that detects targets. analyst at the

us ministry for defense said russia likely had six operational in 50s and it russia has yet to comment on the report. let's discuss this with. joining me live is kay bailey hutchinson — former us ambassador to nato, kay bailey hutchinson and a former republican senator for texas. always good to have you on bbc news, thank you forjoining us. starting with the latest developments in ukraine, the question of who has, on the skies over ukraine is an important one in this conflict and what you make of ukraine's military at sainted shutdown this biplane? i military at sainted shutdown this biplane?— this biplane? i think it's a aood this biplane? i think it's a good sign _ this biplane? i think it's a good sign for _ this biplane? i think it's a good sign for ukraine, i this biplane? i think it's a i good sign for ukraine, they have been fighting this war, and invasion of their sovereign territory and i think now that we are working with them with the f—i6s and given them more power in the air, i think it's a good sign. power in the air, i think it's a good sign-— power in the air, i think it's a good sign. following up on that, a good sign. following up on that. we _ a good sign. following up on that, we have _ a good sign. following up on that, we have seen - a good sign. following up on that, we have seen ukraine. that, we have seen ukraine struggle to make significant

advances recently, especially in the southeast, and president zelensky, we have seen and very quick to defend the progress that has been made, in particular, as he has said, they're not lost territory to russia, what are you concerned that ukraine is not good to be able to win this war against russia? ah. able to win this war against russia? . , . ., , able to win this war against russia? . ., , ., ., russia? a stalemate is not a wing and _ russia? a stalemate is not a wing and i — russia? a stalemate is not a wing and i think _ russia? a stalemate is not a wing and i think we - russia? a stalemate is not a wing and i think we looking i wing and i think we looking at such a long war, ukraine losing thousands of their soldiers, their troops, they are now getting airpower, but it has been a long, long time in this war, and am sure it is very difficult, but having said that, the spirit of the ukrainian people is awesome. they have to win, it is important that they win because we all know, those of us who have been dealing with russia

at nato and beyond,