nomination after a massive win over nikki haley in south carolina. the former president won his primary opponent's home state by a 20—point margin, his fourth consecutive victory. but nikki haley, has vowed to stay in the race. us and british warplanes have carried out a further round of strikes on houthi targets in yemen, the fourth such joint operation by the allies. the pentagon the said the iranian—backed group would "hear the consequences" if they did not stop their attacks on shipping in the red sea. and, oppenheimer was the big winner at the screen actors guild awards. it netted the top prize of best cast, as well as best actor for cillian murphy. and barbra streisand was presented with a lifetime achievement award in the last major ceremony before the oscars next month. now on bbc news, talking business.

hello everybody. a very warm welcome to talking business weekly with me, aaron heslehurst. let's go and take a look at what's on the show. talking tough on global trade. the world trade organization holds its major gathering but will it deliver the progress that makes millions of people better off? the talks are said to cover food, fishing and online selling, so can anything of substance actually be agreed upon in an increasingly divided world? we should be very careful because if this continues, it could do real damage to the world economy. i'm going to be discussing all of this with these two, there they are. the european commissioner for trade, who tells me that after russia's war in ukraine, trade rules have an even important role to play in making sure we all have enough food to eat. and the woman you just heard from, who is bringing 164 countries together. yeah, the big boss of the wto, the world trade organization, tells me that despite huge uncertainty casting a shadow over the global economy, she is still hopeful

of improving the lives of millions. wherever you'rejoining me from around the world, once again a big hello and a warm welcome to the show. you know, for 75 years, the world has been using global trade to grow richer. it's worked for many but not for all, so is it a system that has finally run out of steam? with political divisions everywhere from america to europe, from china to india, it's become more difficult to break down the barriers that get in the way of us buying and selling stuff to different parts of the world. it's two years since the world trade organization brought trade ministers from all over the globe together in geneva. this year, that gathering is happening in abu dhabi and is known as mc13 and the goal? it's simple, it's to update the rules on global trade. i tell you what, this is why it matters. in 2022, just over $32 trillion worth of goods of services were sold between different

countries, which was worth about a third of the entire global economy. nearly 80% of that was goods rather than services. the biggest sellers? well, they include chemicals, office and telecoms equipment and stuff for the car industry. and the growth in all of that global trade over the last a0 years or so has led to a big fall in the amount of people living in extreme poverty, with the biggest difference coming from the countries that have seen the biggest increases in trade. but there were more than 3500 new restrictions imposed on global trade just last year as countries continue to disagree about the rules for how stuff is bought and sold. and at a time when the high cost of borrowing and inflation are already causing economic misery, there are concerns that those limits on global trade are holding back the global economy. let's get an explanation from a leading expert on global trade. professor simon evan, thanks for your time and let's start with global trade 101.

simon, can you please explain what these trade restrictions are and why do countries impose them? trade restrictions include taxes on imports, physical limits on the number of goods being imported and subsidies to poorly manage local firms who can't handle international competition. the reasons for putting them in place are often to protect localjobs, at least temporarily, and often to stop dumped and subsidised imports coming into countries. simon, what's the trend with these restrictions on the rise and what impact are they having on the global economy? we are in the fifth year of a frenzy of trade policy activism. trade restrictions doubled in the pandemic and then have risen, further plateauing in 2022, 2023. the effects of these trade restrictions are twofold. first, they make it very hard for businesses to plan, their overseas expansion strategies and their investments, and that's a drag on the world economy. secondly, taxes on imports of goods that you and i buy push—up our cost of living and that's a major issue

in the recent years. and for the wto meeting in abu dhabi, some of the major issues, they include tackling these subsidies that critics say are threatening the world's fish stocks, extending a ban on tariffs or import taxes for online commerce, and reforming the wto's paralyse system for resolving disputes between one country and another. and there is another major reason why global trade is forcing its way back on the agenda. that is the united states and the upcoming election in the world's biggest economy. which is likely to see a rematch betweenjoe biden and donald trump. when he was us president, donald trump, he started a trade war with china because of what he said were unfair trade practices. it led to tariffs on most of the stuff that the world's two biggest economies sell each other and he was recently asked if his re—election would lead to another trade war. china came in, they were going

to destroy our steel industry and i put tariffs, big tariffs, 50%, 100%, but 50% for the most part. it stopped it. i have steel people that every time they see me they start to cry, they hug me, they say, you saved our industry. but now we're letting it go. now the washington post is saying that you're talking about 60% tariffs on chinese goods. is that on the cards? no, i would say maybe it's going to be more than that. but it is fair to say that the biden administration has kept all of trump's tariffs in place. in fact, it's added its own trade restrictions, although china wants them all scrapped. translation: safeguarding the healthy and stay stable l development of china's economic and trade relations is in the fundamental interests of both countries and peoples, and it is also conducive to global economic growth. and it's notjust china and the us that have their differences. the world trade organization works on a consensus basis, meaning that if anything is to be achieved in abu dhabi, all members need to agree.

i decided to catch up with the man in charge of the european union's trade policy, which is the world's biggest trading bloc in terms of its number of consumers. valdis dombrovskis, a pleasure having you on the show. just how important is the world trade organization to you, the european union? as you know, many see it as an institution that is failing to stay relevant and uphold the rules of global trading in what does feel like a world that is more about power than rules. that's exactly the reason why the wto is even more relevant than before. because indeed we see geopolitical tensions, we see risks of economic fragmentation, so we need to preserve rules —based, multilateral trading system and that's what the wto is all about. it's actually most favoured nation principle which is very much behind resilience of global trade despite geopolitical tensions

we are facing right now. but that said, there is a lot of people saying the differences between the countries are just too big and varied for much to be achieved at this meeting. if you could walk away with one thing that you wanted, what would that be and why? if everyone is willing to be constructive and take a step towards each other, it is possible to achieve a positive result and this is desperate as we are entering this ministerial from the eu side. this point of wt0 reform is important and the function of the dispute settlement system, because global rules are only as effective as they are effectively enforced. but since there are other important deliverables in all the world, it's

important we make progress on the e—commerce work programme and e—commerce moratorium, meaning there are now customs duties or electronic transmissions. we hopefully can achieve that phase two agreements on subsidies to avoid overfishing, to avoid illegal, unregulated fishing and we need also meaningful outcome on agriculture. also with food security and limit. let's talk about food and growing it in particular, because agricultural subsidies, which are basically government payments to farmers, they are an important item on the agenda when food prices continue to rise. but you want some of that cut, why is that? i'm thinking, doesn't that push up the food prices when people are already struggling with the cost of living? there is a range of agricultural subsidies

which are actually allowed under the wto rules. these are called green box. the key there is that though subsidies are not trade distorting. in fact, the eu was undertaking major reform of a common agricultural policy to bring its subsidy policy in line with the wto rules but clearly, in recent years, also having seen russia's weaponisation of food supplies and spike in food prices we saw in 2022 after russia's invasion of ukraine, those food security questions also come in very prominently and we need to ensure also the wto is contributing to the global food security. off the back of the pandemic, the war in ukraine, ongoing differences with china, we know the eu has been working on plans to bolster its economic security and that means more security checks on things like investments both into and out of the eu, you are lessening your reliance

on china, certainly when it comes to making electric cars, wind turbines and computer chips. the question is, how do you square those protections with the eu's stated aim of open trade with the rest of the world? what we are seeing globally, there is a certain paradigms shift from efficiency based model on supply chains to resilience based model, but our economic security strategy is clear, that our aim is to preserve eu's openness to the world, we are a global trading superpower and want to stay this way. the eu is striving from our openness so we need to be targeted and precise in our economic security strategy, to precisely identify risks, so it's important to make sure that economic security strategy, not only in the eu but around the world, this work on economic security does not become a pretext

for protectionism. when it comes to the eu's economic security, who is it that you are most worried about? is it china? when we were drafting our strategy, it is not a strategy against one other country. it's a strategy to address risks of certain technologies getting into hands of live actors. given everything you have said, you look at china and people go, china can be very damaging to european companies and causing economic damage, because beijing has got it subsidies, it limits access to the chinese market, it's got other unfair trade practices, all of that are damaging to the eu economy. yes, that's actually the important point. we are making a distinction between level playing field issues, fair competition issues, which are much broader,

and economic security which is much more narrowly defined. on those broader level playing field issues, obviously we have quite a few concerns related to china. in 2022, the eu had a trade deficit of almost 400 billion euros with china and the fact remains that the eu market is more open to chinese companies and chinese goods then china's market is to the eu. in engagements with our chinese counterparts, we are paying attention to those access market barriers and to ensure a more balanced economic relationship. let's look at the eu �*s trade relations with the us. it is the biggest trade relationship in the world, worth nearly $1 trillion last year and yes, you have your differences which have manifested into the form of tariffs and yes, they are on pause until the spring of 2025. but with donald trump talking

about more us tariffs, before he's even confirmed to be running againstjoe biden, i'm wondering, have the last three years of the biden presidency been a opportunity to build bridges with that crucial ally? we have been working very intensively with the biden administration to build those bridges, also to resolve some of the trade disputes like we managed to park airbus and boeing dispute. so a lot of work has been done and a lot of work is ongoing. of course it's not for us to comment on electoral processes in the us but it's clear we need to be prepared for different eventualities but is also clear the eu and us are strategic allies and it's very important that we keep working together, especially in a current geopolitical context. but if donald trump does win the us presidency, do you believe that will be

damaging to not only the eu economy but the global economy? the signals we are hearing are concerning, this is as much as i can say at this stage. valdis dombrovskis, european commissioner to trade, a pleasure having you on the show. we will talk to you soon. that's the view from europe but what about the view from the world's biggest economy, the united states? in a statement, president biden�*s trade representative told us that for the wto to remain relevant and effective, it must now evolve into an institution that can better reflect the interests of working people and address today's emerging challenges. such as supply chain resilience, the climate crisis, nonmarket policies and practices and widening inequality. mc 13 is an important milestone for us to take stock of where we are and identify areas where further improvements are needed, but it is not a destination.

she went on to say the united states is prioritising three pillars of reform, transparency, rebuilding the wto's ability to negotiate rules for the challenges we face and dispute settlement reform. so in a world that seems increasingly divided, whether because of the wars in ukraine or the middle east, all because of trade policies designed to favour one group over another, how does the world to make any progress? that is something i wanted to discuss with the woman running this major gathering in abu dhabi. she is the director general of the world trade organization. dr ngozi okojo—iweala, a real pleasure as always having you on the show. if we look at the wider state of the global economy, we got interest rates at their highest in many years, inflation continues to push up prices, the uk and japan in recession, germany likely to follow. how important is it that your members actually make some tangible progress in making

trade easier so that prices can come down for consumers all around the world? thank you. good to see you as always. ourfocus is on people. i've always said that at the wto we should focus on what the multilateral trading system can do for people and as you know, for gdp growth, trade feeds in to gdp growth and vice versa. i think progress in trade is really important and our members understand this. they understand it's important to make progress on issues related to fisheries because we are dealing not only with sustainability of our oceans, but with improving the livelihoods of 260 million fishermen and women around the world, who depend on this. they understand that they can progress on digital trade will be important. so the atmosphere is positive and therefore i think members are poised to deliver. that being said, i had to be realistic. you never know how the negotiations will go,

the dynamics can become quite tough, so i don't want to prejudge or predict too much where we are going to come out but i'm hoping for the best. as you know, one of the big issues with global trade at the moment are the ongoing problems in the red sea, all those commercial ships that simply make global trade possible are under attack from the houthis. there is no sign of a solution so i have to ask you, how concerned are you about the impact of that on the global economy? for now the impact of the red sea difficulties is relatively moderate. prices have gone up but not as much as they did during the pandemic. i think that businesses have rejigged their supply chains. you have more inventory for example to help this. that being said, we are concerned that

if the difficulties in the red sea and the suez canal are prolonged, you could see for instance after a couple of years, trade between europe and east asia and southeast asia declined by about 15%. some workers been done on this that show those numbers. that's had a major impact on the global economy. that is why we hope the difficulties in the red sea will be taken care of and we will not see an expansion of the conflict but rather we would see a diminution of it. let me touch on one hot topic on the table at abu dhabi, e—commerce which covers everything from streaming services to cloud computing. it is the fastest—growing part of global trade and up until now there has been disagreement that there are no tariffs on one of those

things, but that's due to expire this year. i'm wondering, what are the dangers if an extension isn't agreed? how will affect consumers? the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions has been extended at the wto for the past 20 years and there is research to make them permanent or at the very least extend them but there are some members who think differently about this. so far the majority of members are supporting this extension because they believe that it is really important to macromedia and small enterprises, especially as trade becomes more digital, more women and young people are trading through digital means. this moratorium becomes important to them but we must remember there are other members who feel that this impacts on their revenue as trade becomes more digital if you don't collect revenue on those, you also lose on a fiscal site. i'm hoping ministers will make the appropriate decision that will be helpful to the world economy.

you need a consensus on that and i'm wondering, how do you get it given the wto system requires all 164 members to back and agree any changes? some people might even ask, isn't it time the wto system changes to become a majority based system? on the moratorium, yes, the same thing happened injune 2022 under mc 12. we managed to get the installation so let's see how the dynamics will work this time and yes, d consensus system of the wto is always under question but let me say this, perhaps as the duty would be easierfor me under that system but i respect this consensus system. why?

this is the only economic organisation where the smallest country has the same voice, an equal voice with the largest one. it gives a voice to those who are normally voiceless in the world's economy and that's the unique thing about the wto. i think we need to preserve that. let me talk about another big topic, it's fishing, hugely important to feeding the world but as we know the world's fish stocks are being depleted rapidly by overfishing and there is talk of further cutting the $22 billion of subsidies that have led to that overfishing. can that be achieved and how do you do that whilst also addressing the concerns of some countries about the millions ofjobs that industry supports? we did the first part of the fisheries subsidies agreement at our mc 12, which was to have a crack at curbing those harmful subsidies that lead to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing of our high seas.

the second part of that agreement is on overfishing and overcapacity, as you mentioned. overfishing our oceans, building too many fishing ships that had the wrong kind of gear and dragged through the ocean, how do we stop subsidies that support that? not to talk of the fact that we need to have our ocean sustainable. we have almost over 50% overfishing at this time and this is not good for future generations and i hope we can come to an agreement, that we can really try to curb these harmful subsidies. i want to ask you about the dispute regulation body, it's been out of action for more than four years and you have highlighted the progress on this is an absolute key target for the meeting in abu dhabi. let's be frank, some will say you have been in office for three years now with little progress on this. what has changed given the us

which paralysed it in the first place, has only been speaking about incremental progress at this meeting? i beg to disagree with those who say that you have been in office three years and not much has happened. let me say two things. it's not the entire dispute resolution system that has been paralysed, is made up of two tears. the first is the pronounced system and that is working but the second tier, the upper lid bodies, it's true that tier where you can make an appeal is not functioning at the moment. that was why the ministers that mc 12 said we should reform the system and make it fully functional by 202a. what i'd like to say is that we are making really good progress on that. let me just also say one other thing, is not only the us who have complaints about the system. many developing countries felt the system was too complicated, not affordable or accessible to them and what has been done so far is to try to tackle those issues so we are some ways there and i think

the work will deliver so far is good progress. let's talk about the us and china. the world's two biggest economies but it does seem like their trade differences have only grown with new restrictions on technology and investments, as well as more export controls. two countries now have to except there are two sides to the global economy and you just had to pick a side? you have noted one thing that is happening in the world, the push towards fragmentation of the world trading system. yes, it is true that on certain goods in the technology area, you have more restrictions on both sides but both sides are talking at the wto and with that kind of approach,

we hope things don't degenerate or deteriorate. i'm very hopeful about that. in terms of fragmentation, if the world were to break into two trading blocs, it would cost the world economy dearly to be in the longer term a 5% loss of real global gdp and that is huge. hang on, you don't believe or worry that globalisation and global trade is unravelling? i would not say it is unravelling, i would say, yes, the disruptions and difficulties, but unravelling, no. in certain sectors and subsectors that we begin to see evidence of this fragmentation that you are pointing to. we should be very careful because if this continues, it could do real damage to the world economy and it will do even more damage to developing countries. dr ngozi okojo—iweala, the big boss of the world trade

organization, always a pleasure having you on the show. good luck with it and we will talk to you soon. that's it for this week's show. you can keep up with the latest on the global economy. you can follow me on x. you can get me @bbcaaron. thanks for watching, i'll see you soon, goodbye. hello there. we had fewer showers around on saturday and with clearer skies and light winds, it is turning pretty chilly out there. but we've got some more rain to come, i think, on sunday. it's going to come from this area of low pressure. now, that's going to tend to slide across towards france and that's where we'll get any mild air heading. we're still going to be in the chillier conditions and we've got a more widespread slight frost by early morning. again, the lowest temperatures, like the previous night, are going to be in north east scotland — minus five or minus six.

and mist and fog patches, too, which will be a little slow to clear in the morning. but we'll see rain developing across south west england and south wales during sunday morning, and that rain develops more widely across the southeast of england during the afternoon. away from here, though, we are going to find the odd shower cropping up but many places will be dry with some sunshine after the early mist and fog and again, temperatures around eight or nine degrees. it's getting windy with that rain in the south and more rain is not good news at all — 15—25 centimetres quite widely could lead to some further flooding. and the rain should clear away from south wales and south west england on sunday night but continue in the southeast, where it's going to be very windy — strong to gale force winds here. a few showers will get blown in further north from off the north sea but with more of a stronger northeasterly wind for england and wales, it won't be as cold. frosts early monday in scotland where we've got the clearer skies. a few showers in scotland and northern ireland shouldn't last too long.

the rain slowly creeps away from the far southeast of england and then, with that northeasterly wind, there'll be some sunny spells for england and wales and maybe the odd shower around as well. quite windy, actually, towards the southeast, particularly in the morning — strong to gale force winds here. the winds ease a bit in the afternoon and again, we'll see typical temperatures on monday around nine celsius. so, as one area of low pressure brings some rain in the south of england then moves away, we'll see this brief ridge of high pressure overnight into tuesday morning, so turning chilly in the south ahead of a weather front that will bring some rain down from the northwest this time. so, we'll see some rain on tuesday across scotland and northern ireland, followed by sunshine and showers. that rain heading into england and wales. east anglia and the southeast still look like being fine and dry here but turning more cloudy. the rain will tend to peter out as it runs southwards. and, for many parts of the country, wednesday will be a dry day with some sunshine for a while.

good morning. welcome to breakfast with ben boulos and sarah campbell. our headlines today: conservative mp lee anderson refuses to apologise for comments aimed at london mayor sadiq khan that have been described as anti—muslim — he's been suspended from the party. us and uk fighter planes have carried out more air strikes on houthi targets in yemen in response to a surge in attacks on shipping in the red sea. donald trump is one step closer to the republican presidential nomination after a massive win in south carolina. scotland show their calcutta cup class as they win the trophy for a fourth year in a row, beating england at murrayfield in the six nations. good morning. it is a cold and locally foggy start for some of us this sunday morning, but on the

whole,