deeper into the red. a warning from the government's official forecaster that the uk's national debt is set to triple over the next half century. cheaper borrowing for 350 million europeans. the region's central bank cuts interest rates by quarter of a percent. now it's over to the fed — will it do the same next week? more turbulence for boeing. 30,000 workers begin a vote on a new contract deal that could see them walk out on strike. and soaring above the competition. spacex aces the first ever private spacewalk — bolstering a $200 billion valuation for elon musk�*s rocket venture. welcome to business today,

i'm lukwesa burak. we start here in the uk because the uk's national debt is on course to triple over the next half a century. that's the warning from the government's official forecaster, the office for budget responsibility. an ageing population, climate change, and rising geopolitical tensions will all put increasing pressure on the public finances — according to the 0br's report. and it says without extra tax revenues or a return to post—war productivity levels, the public finances are not sustainable over the long term, and "something has got to give". uk national debt is currently at almost 100% of the size of its annual economy output or gdp. the 0br says its base scenario is a national debt of 274% of gdp in 2071.

risks from war, disease, cyber—conflict and trade tensions could push that even higher. by 2071, the 0br expects the uk to be spending more than £200 billion extra per year on things like health, social care and pensions. the chair of the 0br richard hughes spoke to the bbc earlier. health is the single largest item in the government budget, and it's also one of the biggest sources of upward pressure on government spending over our 50 year projections and that is because you've got an ageing society. and also people aren't getting healthier as quickly as they used to and so they're spending less of their lives in good health and more of their lives in ill health. so you've got more old people and also people with more complex conditions over

their lifetimes, and that pushes up the cost of treating them in the health service. and so in our projections, health spending is about 8% of gdp at the moment. it rises to about 14.5% of gdp in 50 years�* time. so one of the one of the biggest sources of upward pressure on spending as a share of the economy. and if you assume that revenues are more or less constant over the next 50 years, that puts a lot of upward pressure on borrowing. it's the single biggest source of upward pressure on debt. and one of the biggest drivers of that rise in the debt stock to over 270% of gdp by the time we get to the mid 2070s. joining me now is justin urquhart—stewart, market analyst and founder of regionally. justin, lovely to see you, almost 100% of uk debt is the size of our annual gdp, that sounds really worrying. it size of our annual gdp, that sounds really worrying. it does sounds really worrying. it does sound worrying _ sounds really worrying. it does sound worrying but _ sounds really worrying. it does sound worrying but if- sounds really worrying. it does sound worrying but if it's - sounds really worrying. it does sound worrying but if it's any l sound worrying but if it's any consolation, we have been here

before. mind you, i can't quite remember it myself but it was the end of the napoleonic wars, we got to £1 billion worth of debt and we also introduced something called income tax, it has stayed with us ever since. that got reduced down in time but we had other periods where we saw it racing up as well, after the first world war and we even defaulted on a bit of our debt to the americans after the first world war but what we did see quite recently actually, the level of percentage of debt to gdp dropping down to around 29% only in the past 20 years but it rose again and rising dramatically with covid and we had the great recession and what it now means is instead of paying about £50 billion a year on interest, this year it is probably going to be about £100 million a year on interest. that is more than we spend on our defence budget so it can't carry on doing that so

something has to change over the next few years. it can be done but it is going to take some real difficult changes to society. some real difficult changes to socie . ~ . ., some real difficult changes to socie . ~ . . ., , society. we have had the taxes, post-napoleonic, _ society. we have had the taxes, post-napoleonic, we _ society. we have had the taxes, post-napoleonic, we had - society. we have had the taxes, post-napoleonic, we had that i post—napoleonic, we had that mass production productivity, where do we go, just in? we where do we go, 'ust in? we have to start _ where do we go, just in? - have to start teaching ourselves people are going to have to look after themselves and their families and actually start doing more family finance across the generations. you hear people saying, my children are never going to be able to buy a house, you are right, they can't. but the family will be able to. if we are all living longer, we are going to have grandparents and great grandparents, many of whom should have gone by now but good news, they are staying on, and they have savings, value, so the family finances will be the way to transfer value away from the government of responsibility to families to look after themselves more. not everyone is going to be able to do that, we are going to have more compulsory pensions and savings because frankly the economy won't be able to sustain itself grow more

efficiently. after all at the moment, we have a record number of people who aren't working who are of working age and we can't quite work out why that is happening, covid and things like that, but it does mean we have to try and change, we have a long time to do so, the fundamental way we run our finances but we aren't bust yet so we are still good for the time being. so we are still good for the time being-— so we are still good for the time being. justin, as ever, thank you — time being. justin, as ever, thank you very _ time being. justin, as ever, thank you very much - time being. justin, as ever, l thank you very much indeed. thank you. thank you very much indeed. thank you-— thank you very much indeed. thank you._ let's| thank you very much indeed. i thank you._ let's go thank you. thank you. let's go to mainland — thank you. thank you. let's go to mainland europe, _ thank you. thank you. let's go to mainland europe, now. - there is cheaper borrowing this thursday for the 350 million people that use the euro currency. the european central bank — which sets policy for the 20 nations in the eurozone — has cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point — to 3.5%. like other central banks, the ecb cranked up rates to try and tame soaring prices but with inflation now back close to the bank's 2% target — today's cut was widely expected. but how much further

will european rates come down? well, ecb chief, christine lagarde, wasn't giving away clues at a press conference earlier. 0ur interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. we are not recommitting to a particular rate path. we are not precommitting to a particular rate path. we spoke to kathleen brooks, research director at the currency trading platform, xtb and asked her about the liklihood of the next round of rate cuts in europe. they aren't willing to pre—commit, no forward guidance and if anything, they sounded a bit more hawkish, less likely to cut interest rates but in terms of the market reaction, it is almost as if they don't believe the ecb. the growth outlook in the ecb is weak, they cut their growth

outlook at this meeting as well and we know there are lots of problems in germany so i think it is quite natural that the market is expecting the ecb to still cut in october and december this year, even though they have said today they aren't precommitting and i think with the problems in the economy, particularly for germany and its industrial sector which is really facing massive challenges, there has been big problems with the car sector for example this week, i think we could see the ecb actually having to ditch some of their favouritism towards inflation and to start focusing on growth. thanks to kathleen brooks of xtb. boeing flies into a new pocket of turbulence today. 30,000 workers at its plants in washington state and oregon begin voting shortly on a new four—year contract that could see them walk out on strike. the proposed agreement has been recommended to workers by the iam union — and includes a pay rise of 25%

over the next four years. but not everyone is happy with the deal — which falls far short of their original demands — which included a 40% pay rise. the vote — which closes at 5pm pacific time, just under 8 hours — is a key test for new boeing ceo, kelly 0rtberg, who was brought in to restore confidence in the aerospace giant after a string of safety and quality issues. joining me now is ritika gupta, north america business correspondent. what is at stake here? a lot is at stake here. _ what is at stake here? a lot is at stake here. the _ what is at stake here? a lot is at stake here. the new- what is at stake here? a lot is at stake here. the new ceo i at stake here. the new ceo kelly 0rtberg has sent a letter to employees urging them to sign the dealfor the to employees urging them to sign the deal for the good of the company and this is a key test for him, he has only been in thejob for around test for him, he has only been in the job for around one month and he is tasked with turning around the misfortunes of the company and fixing its struggling reputation and it is a toughjob, the shares struggling reputation and it is a tough job, the shares are down some 36% on a year—to—date basis. there are concerns over

safety, production, a $60 billion debt problem and a strike would be adding to that financial pain and delays to delivering planes and according to a note from td qiao an, a 50 day strike from boeing would cost boeing around $3 million to $3.5 billion in cash flow. ritika, thank you very much indeed. we will be keeping an eye on that a 50 day strike from boeing would cost boeing around $3 million to $3.5 billion in cash flow. ritika, thank you very much indeed. we will be keeping an eye on that possible strike action at boeing. let's go further afield. to space because as you have been hearing, in the last few hours, the crew of the spacex polaris dawn have become the first privately funded astronauts to walk in space. it's a huge boost for the commercial space industry and for elon musks' spacex rocket company which he founded over two decades ago. already the world's richest person, mr musk�*s wealth could receive another huge boost from spacex, if it goes ahead with selling shares. it's now thought to be valued at more than $200 billion — around

40% is owned by musk. kate arkless gray is a space journalist — we asked her about spacex's dominance of the industry at the moment. it's the first time any commercial flight has attempted something like this but it isn't really the core of the business that they do which is launch services. they definitely are the key player in launching rockets and payloads and now they are able to launch pretty much once per week if not more than that. that is where their true strength lies but they have been doing more and more with commercial space missions and sending astronauts to space. you said they aren't professional, i think that is unfair on them because they have been training for this mission for the past two years, although how we define astronaut these days is a matter of some contention i think.

in other news... gaza's economy has shrunk to less than a sixth of its size since the israel—hamas war began nearly a year ago — while unemployment in the west bank has nearly tripled. that's according to a report from the un that described gaza's economy as "in ruins". the unemployment rate in the west bank has more than doubled from 12.9% to 32%. global sales of fully electric and plug—in hybrid vehicles rose by 20%, year—on—year in august, that's according to market research firm rho motion. the surge was led by china — where ev sales hit record levels last month and comes despite a slump of around a third in europe. that was a quick look at the

business, stay tuned, there is more coming up.

welcome back to bbc news. six un workers were among those killed in an israeli air strike on a school in gaza — which was run by the un agency for palestinian refugees. un chief, antonio guterres, branded the strike "totally u na cce pta ble". israel's military said it carried out a "precise strike on terrorists" planning attacks from the school — and released a list of nine alleged hamas members from among the those killed overall. bbc verify have been taking a closer look at the incident. this video was filmed on wednesday on the main road to a camp in the gaza strip, it shows a school where staff of unrwa were present. it has been used as a shelter for displaced palestinians. gaza's state run

health agency