nearly all economists and market watchers agree that america's central bank is turning the corner on its fight against inflation and shifting its focus to protect the job market and so today will cut the cost of borrowing from a 23—year high. other central banks around the world from canada, the uk to the euro area have already lowered rates. to find out what it means for us consumers and businesses. michelle fleury visited york pennsylvania. jennifer heasley, the owner of sweet mama's mambo sauce, is all too familiar with the burden of higher costs. finally that is set to change. for the first time in four years, interest rates are about to come down. for the maker of barbecue—style sauce, who met the world's most powerful central banker

jerome powell here in york, pennsylvania last year, some relief. she's been paying a higher rate on the credit card she uses to fund her business. my interest rates have gone up, so my monthly payments have increased tremendously, so i would like to see the interest rates come back down. whenjerome powell visited this market, the federal reserve was watching closely to see if its big interest rate hikes really were cooling inflation, even though it was tough and small businesses. that's about to change. mr powell and his colleagues are set to interest rates. in york, the arrival of autumn marks a change. after raising interest rates 11 times, america's central bank is all but certain to unwind that, but how quickly they go down from here is still up for grabs. perfectly like this on your porch, and then we price it less than picking up the pumpkins themselves. at this farm shop, the rebirth of the economy, as inflation

falls closer to the fed's official target of 2%, is yet another moment of change. we want stability. isn't that what everyone wants? that means security. stability means you can't predict what your business will do, how your community will grow, all those things, and that means you are secure. still, on the outskirts of town, the first rate cut since the pandemic may not fix america's housing market. ben rutt is director of marketing at keystone custom homes. he tells me, despite the mortgage squeeze, house prices here have remained high. economics 101, we are seeing not enough supply, and if the demand increases because affordability gets even better, assuming the supply remained static, as it is, we are anticipating it

will push pricing even higher. so rates are on their way down, a potential boost to businesses and consumers. the question now is how low will they go. michelle fleury, bbc news, york, pennsylvania. interest rates in the us have remained steady since july last year which is when the fed increased the cost of borrowing to 5.25% to 5.5%, that is a 23—year high. dr sean snaith is director of the institute for economic forecasting at the university of central florida. welcome. hellfire will —— hellfire will be fed go today? i think they will proceed with caution because while we are approaching the 2% inflation target, the progressed to was that i could have slowed dramatically in 202a. i think being aggressive with interest rate cuts runs the risk of reigniting inflation,

particularly in a presidential election year, particularly with fiscal policy and budget prices in washington, dc. quite frankly it is broken. i think the need to proceed with caution and get a few months more data, make sure we are going to hit that target but i think it is going to be minutes with a 25 when we do. where are you out in the debate about how healthy or otherwise the us economy is? over the last few months we have seen the market go through huge volatility up and down like a yo—yo. fine go through huge volatility up and down like a yo-yo. one day market watchers _ and down like a yo-yo. one day market watchers saying - and down like a yo-yo. one day market watchers saying there i and down like a yo-yo. one dayi market watchers saying there is fears of recession and the next day it is all blown over. your thoughts? i day it is all blown over. your thoughts?— day it is all blown over. your thou~hts? ~ , ., , ., thoughts? i think you see what ou want thoughts? i think you see what you want to — thoughts? i think you see what you want to see _ thoughts? i think you see what you want to see in _ thoughts? i think you see what you want to see in the - thoughts? i think you see what you want to see in the data - thoughts? i think you see what you want to see in the data for| you want to see in the data for the beacon chope pick thejobs report and say payrolljobs numbers came in under expectation but you have to ignore the fact wage growth remains strong and unemployment

rate tipped down last month. 3% gdp growth last quarter. today we have numbers, retail sales surprise to the upside. industrial production surprise significantly. the totality in my mind is the economy is not teetering on the brink of recession and i would rather see these flames and members of inflation extinguished before we get too aggressive with rate cuts. and quickly before we let you go. how will the election impact the economy? i you go. how will the election impact the economy?- impact the economy? i don't exect impact the economy? i don't meet you _ impact the economy? i don't exoect you to _ impact the economy? i don't expect you to tell _ impact the economy? i don't expect you to tell me - impact the economy? i don't expect you to tell me what l impact the economy? i don't l expect you to tell me what the outcome will be but it is going to be an interesting few months, let's put it that way. there is a trend is amount of uncertainty in this presidential cycle. with the national debt at 35 trillion

dollars and interest payment on that rapidly approaching i trillion per year, it is going to restrict and constrain what types of policies we are able to see post—election. we to see post-election. we appreciate your - to see post—election. - appreciate your expertise, thank you for your time. here in the uk attention will turn to our central bank tomorrow as it meets to make up its mind on interest rates. no change is expected this month but andrew bailey and his team will be pouring over the latest uk inflation numbers that are due out injust underan hour and half's time. we will also be getting inflation numbers for the eurozone later this morning. i'm joined by fiona cincotta from city index.

today expectations are for inflation to remain unchanged. and modestly above the bank of england target rate of 2%. if we have a look at the subcomponents within that inflation data report, we are expecting core inflation. that removes more volatile items such as food and fuel. that is expected to take higher to 3% and there is service sector inflation. it is inflation very much related to restaurants, hospitality, holidays. that is expected to take higher as well. expected to rise to 5.5%. service inflation is one of the inflation markets bank of england is watching closely. it seems to be proving to be stickier than expected. i think if we get those figures, that

is going to reinforce expectations the bank of england is going to leave interest rates on hold. tomorrow. when will they cut again? tomorrow. when will they cut a . ain? , tomorrow. when will they cut auain? , , ., again? the big question. if we continue to — again? the big question. if we continue to see _ again? the big question. if we continue to see potentially - again? the big question. if we continue to see potentially a l continue to see potentially a ticking down in inflation, particularly without service sector inflation over the coming months, ithink sector inflation over the coming months, i think november is the month we would expect potentially the bank of england to move again. they cut interest rates by 25 basis points in august, they are going to want to see how that is impacting in the economy and on the data points in order to be confident to move again probably in november. thank ou, probably in november. thank you. see _ probably in november. thank you. see you _ probably in november. thank you, see you again _ probably in november. thank you, see you again soon. - now let's head to france where after a two—month political impasse following tumultuous elections michel barnier who was recently appointed prime minister is now tasked with forming a cabinet. easier said than done

with a fragmented parliament. many commentators argue he holds one of the hardest jobs in politics today — one which put all his skills as former eu brexit negotiator to the test. with eurozone's second—largest economy facing acute fiscal challenges and a gaping hole in the public finances. lets discuss this with doctor renaud foucart senior lecturer at the department of economics at lancaster university management school. the key is the big problem majority supported from the outside by the far right for them at any point those people will be pulling the plug on the government. what is president

macron fit into all of this? he made a decision to give the job. after an election, when most people would have thought the centre—left, the second was a referendum between the centre—left and fire rate, the pilot lost but is limited between the centre and the left, you made the decision of giving the topjob left, you made the decision of giving the top job of being prime minister of the conservative rate may be number five in the election. very big bed man with money respected in europe, very unknown in france can manage to beat the majority. how do you see this playing out? will he be successful in moving france forward from what has been a very difficult few months? the first and biggestjob very difficult few months? the first and biggest job will be first and biggestjob will be to find a strategy to bring back the b %.

to find a strategy to bring back the b 96.— to find a strategy to bring back the b %. , , , back the b %. this is extremely difficult because _ back the b %. this is extremely difficult because in _ back the b %. this is extremely difficult because in france - back the b %. this is extremely difficult because in france go i difficult because in france go spending social, taxes are high and nobody will be directly accountable. in the end it is very easy job accountable. in the end it is very easyjob for the accountable. in the end it is very easy job for the far right, they will not be responsible for any current spending. even among upfront party is trying to stay away and say will be the only government if it is not top on the taxes. if he somehow makes people believe it will last a long, isn't there interest to support the government. to what extent other _ support the government. to what extent other parallels _ support the government. to what extent other parallels of - support the government. to what extent other parallels of what - extent other parallels of what is happening in france and in germany politically? politically in both cases part is that are extremely afraid of the fire rate taking power. in germany you hear a lot border control, it was running for president in the previous collection for that then i go through the parliament which

was running for president with an agenda that is almost understandable from the fire rate on those questions. clearly they are both operating under the fair the next government may be the fire rate and both have the same strategy which is to mimic a bed, the discourse of the fire rate which in my opinion may be a dangerous position to hold. thank you for your time. let's now turn to india where the national census will soon be under way after a delay of nearly three years. this provides critical data set for economic policymaking but was last updated almost 13 years ago. our india business correspondent nikhil inamdar has the latest from mumbai. we just want to recap the market moves on wall street the government has drawn some

criticism from economies and policymakers for dragging their feet on a new survey. the censusis feet on a new survey. the census is crucial to plucky data gaps. while technically it is only in numeration of the country �*s entire population. it gives policymakers information on a range of indicators from housing and urbanisation to migration, fertility and mortality rates among others. without it, resource allocation in the budget becomes a difficult task. the process of conducting the census is likely to begin in september according to some reports and will take at least 18 months for the new survey to be completed given how complex the task is. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news.

this now a major energy conference is taking place in texas this in texas this week, where energy ministers and business leaders

are gathering to discuss the role of natural gas in the transition to decarbonising energy sources. it's called gastech 2024 and it's being billed as a space to explore how new technologies can bring about a faster transition to net—zero. so what is that exactly? gaurav sharma is an independent energy analyst who's speaking at this week's conference, and joins me live now from houston. what are you about then? be thou~ht what are you about then? ee: thought of the what are you about then? e2 thought of the town is held to service a new technology with great stability where the great salt is very old—fashioned. what is the bridging fuel? the destination fuel? natural gas and most commentators are saying we are not as dirty as

coal and you have to it as renewable energy alamo so why not look at us in the interim? that is we have indian ministers anywhere from india to canada talking about that fuel media. we to canada talking about that fuel media.— to canada talking about that fuel media. ~ ., , ., fuel media. we also understand able to talk _ fuel media. we also understand able to talk about _ fuel media. we also understand able to talk about the _ fuel media. we also understand able to talk about the energy i able to talk about the energy transition but something about the energy trilemma. what is the energy trilemma. what is the energy trilemma. what is the energy trilemma?- the energy trilemma. what is the energy trilemma? what we have here _ the energy trilemma? what we have here is — the energy trilemma? what we have here is a _ the energy trilemma? what we have here is a situation - the energy trilemma? what we have here is a situation where l have here is a situation where we talk about the energy trilemma is balancing affordability, security and in terms of keeping stability of supply on, the lights on. you compromise one at the expense of the other and you end up possibly upsetting a bulk of your population. people want cheap energy, they wanted available all the time and at the same time there is a scramble for sustainability and this is the challenge for governments anywhere from india

to the western world, the european union and americans itself. what you will have here is ahead of cops within nine, a host of governments trying to work out we keep our population on board at the same time while iugghng on board at the same time while juggling the needs of sustainable targets, and yet not upsetting the population. it is a tough one. at the same time it is something that needs to be done and there is a clamour if you believe in the discourse for a finding that. also we have seen this clamour for anything to do with artificial intelligence, the big tech companies massively investing into that. many have had to confess because of their huge investment in al, there are no longer sustainable, not meeting their green targets and the new technology is fuelling

huge demand, that means we are going to miss carbon emissions targets, doesn't it?— targets, doesn't it? indeed. you will see _ targets, doesn't it? indeed. you will see them _ targets, doesn't it? indeed. you will see them repeated | targets, doesn't it? indeed. l you will see them repeated at the time, now and the end of the time, now and the end of the decade. there will be a tremendous paul on the wild electro grid. where do we go from here? renewables cannot service that the mind, stepping into the breach is natural gas and this is where it starts. you are servicing a new aged technology but some of the avenues and power sources you avenues and power sources you are avenues and power sources you are turning to i pretty old—fashioned. that is what the national gas guys are saying. let's help up for the next five, ten, 15, 20 years but eventually new bulls have to be found but not any time soon. i am interested, before we let you go, you mentioned the representatives where you are

at this conference from india. and from the west, canada, us, europe, what about china, asia? other parts of asia, with weapons in those countries and organisations or companies? i think you have a heavy presence from the chinese and indians. these are two principled burgeoning economies everyone is looking at. at the same time, we look at china and india, they have a huge technology presence and at the same time, they need to power the sources and that is coming from traditional energy more than renewable energy. you have to much everyone here saying hurry to policymakers and everybody out in the ossian examine solutions they have and the near term, short to medium term solution happens to be turning back to fossil fuels. i

have one more question. if you can give me a brief answer. are you talking about your selection, the outcome and what it could mean for energy. we are and what _ it could mean for energy. we are and what is _ it could mean for energy. 2 are and what is emerging as both candidates on paper, the trump candidacy is stronger but ms harris is, and said he is author —— she is author of the natural gas business. it is evenly spread in the world with limits with the because what happens has massive implications on the wider global industry.— implications on the wider global industry. thank you for our global industry. thank you for your time. — global industry. thank you for your time, good _ global industry. thank you for your time, good to _ global industry. thank you for your time, good to get - global industry. thank you for your time, good to get your. your time, good to get your take. before we wrap up business today we have time to talk about dei — that's diversity, equality and inclusion initiatives that have come under a lot of pressure recently. in the us for example, several high—profile companies, including harley—davidson

and ford, have sought to roll back on their dei messaging following pressure from conservative social media influencers. but for others, like the high profile boss ofjp morgan, jamie dimon, dei is regarded as "good for business" and "morally right". from today london's playing host to europe's largest ethnic minority supplier diversity conference, where these issues will be under discussion. reshma sheikh — managing director of msduk, an advocacy organisation for supplier diversity. welcome to the programme. tell me about this event, how important is this for you? extremely important especially in the current climate. there is misconception of the value minorities bring to the economy and city area. and you already mentioned it, there is some high profile companies that are

not looking to reduce imports into the el. it is deciding it is taking place today but i believe it is extremely important we have these conversations and particularly at the moment.— at the moment. what are you hoinr at the moment. what are you hoping will — at the moment. what are you hoping will change _ at the moment. what are you | hoping will change afterwards? it is good to thought but we want to see action. and it is about impact.— want to see action. and it is about impact. events such as the conference _ about impact. events such as the conference that - about impact. events such as the conference that has - about impact. events such as| the conference that has taken place today have been taken place today have been taken place for 20 years. it is not a new trend or a fad. supplier diversity of business imperative, the impact it has been making has been vast. businesses as he mentioned, they understand business value. it is the right thing to do to keep everyone included and underrepresented groups, particularly given the opportunities and breaking barriers down. it makes sense, a depicts your supply chain, increases revenue and growth of

business and gives resilience. the impact is already being felt with businesses raining back on this. time will tell of the impact it will have on those particular companies but there are many businesses that get it and want to tap into diverse businesses. when we talk about supplier diversity, we talk about cooperating diverse businesses, suppliers, benders into your business strategy. is that what we are talking about?— talking about? that is right. grou -s talking about? that is right. groups not _ talking about? that is right. groups not easily _ talking about? that is right. groups not easily accessed l talking about? that is right. i groups not easily accessed by the large global corporate. doesn't drive into the mission quite a bit? the more diverse you are, the more ideas, more difference, more innovation, is that correct?— that correct? that is literally at. yet creativity _ that correct? that is literally at. yet creativity you - that correct? that is literally at. yet creativity you get - that correct? that is literally i at. yet creativity you get from at. yet creativity you get from a diverse supply chain,

innovation you get, that is what grows businesses. the competitiveness and fresh ideas. that is why this is not just a trend. it is a business imperative. just a trend. it is a business imperative-— imperative. that is a strong waiter and _ imperative. that is a strong waiter and the _ imperative. that is a strong waiter and the programme. j waiter and the programme. before we wrap up. i want to show you the financial markets. lets take a look at the markets.

hello. tuesday was another glorious day across the uk, with lots of autumnal sunshine. skies like these in aboyne. aboyne was the warmest place in the whole of the uk, reaching a top temperature of 25 c through the afternoon — that's a whole eight degrees celsius above average for this time of year. but the warmth was pretty widespread — 2a in leuchars in eastern scotland, into the north—west of northern ireland, 2a celsius, as well. now, over the next few hours, we are starting to see a drift of cloud come in off the north sea, affecting eastern and central areas of england, probably reaching east wales. a few fog patches already

forming in scotland. one or two of these could be quite dense, as we start off into wednesday. otherwise, it's quite a chilly night, where we keep the skies clearest longest. now, over the next few days, high pressure is going to stay firmly in charge of our weather, and that means we've got more of this fine, settled, sunny weather to come. but, that said, we are going to start wednesday with quite extensive cloud across england, eastern parts of wales. it will take a time for that to thin and break up, but eventually the sunshine will come out — mist and fog patches clearing away elsewhere. plenty of sunshine around, and it's another very warm day for september. temperatures probably about 25 again for parts of scotland, a 2k for the london area, and a 22 or so for western counties of northern ireland. on into thursday, it's a similar kind of weather picture, really. again, there'll be a fair bit of cloud to start the day across parts of england, clearing away. still quite a brisk north—easterly breeze blowing across east anglia and south—east england, otherwise the winds are quite light. wherever you are in the sunshine through the afternoon,

it is going to feel pleasantly warm, with temperatures widely climbing into the 20s and probably peaking at about 2k degrees or so. again, some mist and fog, a bit of cloud around to start the day on friday, but this time, as we head into the afternoon, there's a chance of seeing one or two showers pop up across parts of england and wales. but for scotland and northern ireland, at this stage, it looks like most of the rain will stay away and it should stay mostly fine and dry with more of that sunshine.

good morning, welcome to breakfast with nina warhurst and jon kay. our headlines today. hezbollah blames israel after electronic pagers used by members of the armed group explode simultaneously across lebanon, killing nine people and injuring thousands. new powers to make sure communities have access to cash and basic banking, as more hubs are introduced in places where services are scarce. a night injailfor the american rapper and music mogul sean diddy combs. he's denied bail after pleading not guilty to sex trafficking charges.

a night of goals in the champions league. liverpool and aston villa both make winning starts, and for villa after four decades away, a night to savour in switzerland. the beginning of the end for working from home? online giant amazon demands staff return to the office full time. # you look so wonderful in that dress, i love your hair like that. any requests? we'll be chatting to the runner who was serenaded by ed sheeran while she was out for a jog. a little bit cloudier for some of you but sunshine developing and if anything a bit warmer than yesterday. all of the details here on breakfast. good morning. it's wednesday the 18th september. britain, the united states and the un have called for restraint, after electronic pagers, used by members of the armed group hezbollah, simultaneously exploded