live from washington, this is a bbc news special on the rising tensions in the middle east. hezbollah confirms that one of its top commanders was among those killed in an israeli strike on beirut. the latest strikes come the latest strikes come after four days of deadly attacks in lebanon, including after four days of deadly explosions of communications devices, prompting new condemnation from the un devices, prompting new condemnation from the un human rights chief. human rights chief. it isa it isa it is a war crime to commit it is a war crime to commit violence intended to spread violence intended to spread terror among civilians. terror among civilians. we examine what the attacks the death of a top military we examine what the attacks in lebanon could mean for the region, israel's war in gaza, and what may happen next. in lebanon could mean i'm helena humphrey. i'm helena humphrey. glad you could join me. glad you could join me. we begin in lebanon where there we begin in lebanon where there are concerns tonight over are concerns tonight over escalating violence escalating violence between the militant group between the militant group hezbollah and israel hezbollah and israel and what it could mean and what it could mean

for the region. for the region. hezbollah has now confirmed hezbollah has now confirmed the death of a top military commander, ibrahim aqil, after israel struck a high—rise block of flats in the lebanese capital beirut on friday. ibrahim aqil is considered the most high—profile member of the group to be killed in the current conflict, with the us having had a multimillion dollar bounty

israel hit hard, without warning, in the densely populated residential district of dahiya. calling this a "precision strike", the target was the veteran hezbollah military leader ibrahim aqil. israel said he had been "eliminated", along with about ten commanders of an elite unit. at the time of the strike, aqil and the commanders of the radwan forces were gathered underground under a residential building in the heart of the dahiya in beirut, hiding among lebanese civilians, using them as human shields. they were in the middle of planning more terror attacks against israeli civilians. aqil had plenty of enemies. the us had put a $7 million

bounty on his head, accusing him of involvement in the killing of americans in beirut in the 1980s. siren wails day after day now, hezbollah is being hit and being weakened by warfare from a distance. we were repeatedly prevented from reaching the scene by locals and the lebanese army. siren wails well, emergency vehicles have been coming and going. we've counted at least ten ambulances coming up and down the road, going to pick up casualties. the dead are still being counted. there's a lot of anger here, a lot of tension. this was another major strike on hezbollah here in its stronghold in south beirut. tonight, rescue workers still digging in the rubble for people who lived here.

she giggles among the missing — li—year—old naya ghazi, a threat to no—one. orla guerin, bbc news, beirut. our international editor jeremy bowen has more on hezbollah�*s response and the impact of israel's strike. first of all, i can tell you that hezbollah in beirut haveissued a statement confirming that ibrahim aqil is dead. "a greatjihadist", they said, "a blessed life full of work, "wounds, sacrifices, risks and achievements." after a week of, well, exploding pagers and radios and now this raid on a meeting that the hezbollah leadership clearly thought was secret in a basement in their stronghold in the southern suburbs of beirut. i mean, they have had a disastrous week,

and they must be wondering what else israel has got in store for them. however, these remarkable tactical victories by the israelis do not bring them closer to their strategic objectives, which is, first of all, to stop the fire across the border into israel from lebanon, which has in fact intensified, and to get 60—plus thousand israelis back to their homes in border towns, which have become ghost towns. there are more lebanese, incidentally, on the other side, who've had to leave their homes because of what israel has been doing in return. so what's been happening this week, ithink, is israel trying to break out of the status quo and do some real damage to their enemies. now they've done the damage, but they haven't changed that status quo. and that's why there are fears that — and there's quite a bit of talk as well in israel — about the prospect of a military incursion by israeli ground troops into lebanon. and that is something that israel's western allies are against.

but it may happen, and it's part of what is looking like a very dangerous slide towards all—out war in the region, at really one of the most dangerous moments in the last 12 months. jeremy bowen reporting. israel has been moving more troops close to the border of southern lebanon, and israel's defence minister has talked about what he has called "a new phase "of the war." some 60,000 residents of northern israel have left their homes due to the escalating conflict, from where our correspondent paul adams reports. today, if this had happened say a week ago, you might thought, well, here is the latest sign of the minutes that hezbollah presents to the people of northern israel, because there had been volley after volley after volley of rockets flying over the northern border.

we were witness to a couple of those as we arrived here about ten miles from the lebanese border a few hours ago. there was a salvo of around 15—20 rockets that was intercepted right over our heads, so it has been a pretty spectacular day. daniel howe gary, the chief israeli ministry spokesman, said there had been as many as 200 rockets fired over the border. but they have pretty much all been dealt with. we have had no reports of any significant damage or injury, it seems as though israel's air defence systems managed to cope with the threat perfectly well. and at the same time, we heard the reports from overnight of attacks on a large number of missile targets in southern lebanon with the destruction of as many as 1000 rocket barrels, according to the idf, and then, of course, the news from beirut.

there are those who feel that, this week, a corner has been turned, that the israeli government which announced that the return of civilians to evacuated communities in the north was now one of its war aims, but it has stepped up a gear. it has shown the kind of resolve and determination that frankly people in this part of israel accused the government of not showing for the past 12 months. and it sounds kind of ridiculous, but if there were any gloves on before this, they are most definitively off. lina khatib is the director of the school of oriental and african studies at the university of london's middle east institute. she told us more about israel's strategy in its conflict with hezbollah. what israel is trying to do is prevent hezbollah from using this military capacity by, for example, infiltrating its communications infrastructure, and causing disarray within the organisation.

let's not forget that an attack like the pager attack will mean hezbollah will now become suspicious about practically any equipment that it has imported, and so this kind of chaos within a militant group like this is in a way more crippling than large—scale military action against it. let's look at the timeline of all of this then because the latest strikes come after four days of deadly attacks in lebanon, widely attributed to israel, though israel has not confirmed any role. on tuesday, handheld pagers which were used by hezbollah, exploded across lebanon killing at least 12 people and injuring thousands of others. as some people were being laid to rest, at least 20 more others were killed by walkie talkies that exploded in a further attack on wednesday. several people in iran and syria also suffered injuries. since then, both israel and hezbollah have launched strikes towards each other, including israel's third targeted attack

on beirut this year. firas maksad is a senior fellow and senior director for outreach at the middle east institute. he told me about how the latest strikes could escalate an already intense situation. i'd like to start with the strike we saw in beirut today, which israel says killed hezbollah commander ibrahim aqil. it has also been confirmed now by hezbollah. how much does this strike ramp up an already tense situation? everybody in beirut is not sleeping tonight. everybody is on edge. clearly, this is the most unanticipated of scenarios. in three days, back—to—back attacks, pagers, thousands of people being rushed to the hospitals, overflowing hospitals, and then the walkie—talkies the following day. as we heard from the

hezbollah chief yesterday, a message was delivered to him from israelis, saying, "will you back away from the border "or do you want more?" and then this attack today almost decapitating hezbollah�*s leadership. to this hour we are talking about 12 hezbollah commanders taken off the battlefield. this is, by every stretch of the imagination, taking both hezbollah and the rest of the lebanese by complete surprise. i wonder then, after those attacks, pager attacks, the walkie—talkies, and now this, what does this mean for hezbollah? you point out ibrahim aqil was a top military leader. it the group weakened? very much so. i think the question is — is it completely incapacitated? hezbollah is no doubt a formidable military force. it is the most powerful nonstate actor in the world.

it has over 150,000 rockets. it brought israel to a standstill after a month long war in 2006. it is much stronger today than it was then. but the kind of exceptional strikes that we see in the past three days have definitely left it reeling. i would argue hezbollah even before the events of the last three days did not have the appetite for an all—out war with israel. it very much preferred a war of attrition, a border war that now has cost over 60,000 israelis to flee their homes. after the strikes of the last three days, i don't think hezbollah has it in it right now to contemplate an all—out war with israel. we are waiting, as you say, beirut, many people may not be sleeping tonight and it strikes me in having this conversation in recent months, many sides have been saying for a long time that nobody wants an all—out war. but i wonder, when you look at the actions from israel, when you look at the comments from hassan

nasrallah, do actions speak otherwise? are we nearing a point of getting closer to that potential war i was one of those analysts who sometime ago said nobody really wants an all—out war. i am not too sure anymore. i haven't been sure really since benjamin netanyahu, the israeli prime minister, decided to take out hezbollah�*s chief of staff in the heart of beirut onjuly 30. clearly israel exercising escalation dominance, willing to risk all—out war much more than hezbollah and iran are. i think it is an open question at this point, but i do want to say that there is an unrealistic expectation on behalf of the israelis as to what the strategic outcome could be. you would not be able to stop that cross—border fire simply through a military solution in lebanon. you would need to go back to diplomacy. but here is what i suspect the israelis can do, the understated

or understated objective of this campaign — they can deal a severe blow to the crown jewel of iran in the region, that ring of fire of proxies that iran has surrounded israel with, hezbollah in lebanon, the houthis in yemen, hamas in gaza, the militias in syria and iraq, if you are able to degrade and weaken hezbollah, that is a significant achievement. how would it be that hezbollah could acquiesce when of course we know its loyalties lie with hamas and iran. doesn't it put that in a difficult situation? and that is exactly the kind of gridlock that we are in. i do not see hezbollah at all being able to decouple the lebanon front from the gaza front, despite the utter destruction that

could be visited upon it and upon lebanon. from the day after 7 october, iran and hezbollah declared what they call is this unity of fronts, the entire iranian access in the region fighting in sync and together from various fronts. for hezbollah to decouple from gaza would be to do away with that entire strategy and the unity of the iranian block, so i don't see hezbollah being capable of doing that, nor do i think there patrons in iran would want to see that. last question, a lot to pack in — i am curious as to the mechanics of what an all—out war could look like in your assessment. are we talking about a ground invasion here, and something you said that struck me was israel achieving its aims through a ground invasion. we know now one of the stated aims is the return of residents to northern israel. can it do that through military means or would this also require a diplomatic or political solution here? i had a sit—down today with two senior american officials dealing with these issues on background, and i can tell you the level of frustration in the administration is very high when it comes to israel expanding that campaign.

the administration had essentially prenegotiated a deal that would see hezbollah move a certain number of kilometres off the border, a lot of contested points along that border. and they were guaranteed by both the french and the american. but to achieve that, iran and hezbollah made that premise on a ceasefire in gaza. and the administration is really trying to get hamas and israel past that finish line. the strategy fell apart. the ground component of an israeli occupation, it would be foolish of the israelis to try an attempt. they are much better off trying to degrade hezbollah in the coming days but we will have to wait and see. the international response to these latest attacks has been growing, including from the white house, where, during a cabinet meeting on friday, president biden was asked what this means

for the prospect of peace in the region. in the peace process, we are continuing to try to do and try for the beginning to make sure that both people in northern israel as well as southern lebanon are able to go back to their homes and go back safely. and the secretary of state, secretary of defence, our whole team is working and the intelligence community to try to get it done. we're going to keep at it �*til we get it done, but we've got a way to go out. at a special meeting of the un security council on friday, several members condemned this week's explosions on the communications devices. if things continue as they are, we risk seeing a conflagration that could dwarf even the devastation and suffering witnessed so far. it is not too late to avoid such folly. there is still room for diplomacy which must be used without delay. the un human rights chief volker turk said he was appalled by those attacks, saying they could

constitute a war crime. international humanitarian law prohibits the use of booby—trap devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects, which are specifically designed and constructed to contain explosive material. it is a war crime to commit violence intended to spread terror among civilians. patrick theros served as the us ambassador to qatar from 1995 to 1998. he shared his reaction to israel's tactics. let's start with those comments from the un. human rights chief volker turk said he was appalled by those synchronised explosions of pagers which he said could constitute a war crime. what do you make of israel's tactics here? i think there was actually

a mistake on the israeli side. it makes no sense to have this massive explosion all across the commander sector of hezbollah, and then there is no follow—up. this is the sort of thing that i would expect to be synchronised with moving tanks across the border in a full—scale attack. they clearly did a psychological, inflicted a psychological blow on hezbollah, but psychological blows pass after a couple of days. so whatever advantage the israelis might have gotten out of this will dissipate over the next few days. so, i suspect — this is a personal opinion — but it is rational, the israelis, for some reason, felt they were about to be discovered, that the bombs were there, and it was used them or lose them. there have been questions about the timing. the timing makes no

sense to me. this is the sort of thing you do just before the tanks started rolling. what we did see today was those strikes including on an apartment block in beirut, leading to the killing of the top hezbollah commander and the administration has been speaking about this, saying it hadn't heard about this before it happened. what do you think watching this the administration will be making of this particular moment? i am particularly cynical at this point. i believe this is not an attempt by israel to deter hezbollah, but to provoke hezbollah into a retaliatory attack. for what reason? israel feels the united states would not support an israeli—initiated attack into lebanon. but if there was a hezbollah attack on israel, then the israelis i think would be reasonably confident that we would repeat what we did a few months ago with the attack

from iran, that we would at leastjoin the israelis in shooting down missiles, shooting down rockets. whereas if they started it, if the war began with a massive israeli attack into israel, then i think the israelis are not confident that we would join in. and of course washington has maintained that it is there for the defence of israel, so should we see an escalation, what do you think the prospects are, how far could the us become involved? it depends on whether or not the israelis are able to provoke hezbollah into a large—scale attack. it is clear the small—scale exchanges of fire that had been going on so far have not been the sort of thing that has caused the us to start saying we have to get involved. israel needs to get the us involved. israeli experience in invading south lebanon, three times, was a disaster each time. they created hezbollah by doing so.

fighting a guerrilla war against a well armed, well dug in operator on the other side, adversary, is extremely difficult, and frankly in each case, they don't like to use this word, in each case the lebanese defeated the israelis and force them to evacuate. but you need the united states on their side. and israel continues to say it is carrying out these operations to diminish hezbollah, in the wake of 7 october, we should say 8 october when we saw rockets coming from hezbollah. but washington and other western countries insist there has to be a diplomatic path towards deescalation here. do you realistically think that is on the table, particularly within the confines of the time president biden has left in office? not unless there is a dramatic

change in politics in israel. the united states essentially has a very few choices, the israelis are not amenable to the sort of diplomatic pressure, the repeated visits by secretary blinken. essentially what you need is an american action that will in some ways maybe bring down the israeli government or get the attention of the israeli government. and it all comes back to a ceasefire in gaza. it doesn't matter what is happening — it does matter what is happening on the lebanese frontier — but that depends on a ceasefire in gaza. the houthis depend on a ceasefire in gaza. everything that is going on right now is tied up with a ceasefire in gaza. and there has been repeated that netanyahu does not want to ceasefire in gaza. he cannot afford a ceasefire because it would bring down his government and then he would have bigger problems. let's turn to some other important news around

the world. travis king, the american soldier who crossed into north korea last year, pleaded guilty to desertion and four other charges as part of a guilty plea. he was sentenced to 12 months confinement. the us army soldier was temporarily detained by north korea lastjuly after running across the demilitarized zone. after being released into us custody, the army charged king the us secret service has admitted deficiencies in planning prior to an attempt on donald trump's life at his rally injuly. an internal review of the security service concluded there were gaps in communication, complacency, and a lack of diligence ahead of the shooting onjuly 13 that injured the former president and killed a rally attendee. more than 70,000 people fighting in russia's military have now died in the war in ukraine, according to new research by the bbc. working with the independent website mediazone, bbc russia has analysed the names of the dead published on social media in obituaries and official publications, and they've discovered that more russian volunteers are dying on the battlefield

than soldiers. schools in niger will start the academic year almost a month late due to heavy rains and flooding, the military government said. many classrooms are damaged or are occupied with displaced people. torrential rains since lastjuly have caused havoc across niger. earlier this month, the interior ministry said almost 300 people had drowned or died when buildings had been brought down. rescue operations are under way in northern italy after flooding forced roughly a thousand people to evacuate from the emilia—romagna region of the country. it follows torrential rains in central europe that claimed the lives of at least 2a people. the eu has pledged billions of euros in aid for poland, austria, the czech republic and slovakia, after the area suffered enormous damage from flooding. you are watching bbc news. i am helena humphrey. thank you for your company. more news at the

top of the hour. bye for now. hello. well, friday brought some storms to southern parts of the uk. even a report of a damaging tornado. but at the same time, some parts of the country were also quite sunny and warm. in kew gardens, the temperatures reached 25 celsius. the days ahead are looking very different — it's turning unsettled, it's turning autumnal. a jet stream will send weather fronts in our direction. i think there's a fair amount of rain on the way, particularly across the southern half of the uk, and this time next week, some parts of the country could be around ten degrees cooler by day. now, in terms of the rainfall this weekend, you can see where most of it will be. this is just the potential for rainfall here, perhaps 50mm or so in some parts of england and wales. so it is a mixed bag this weekend. certainly some sunshine on the way, particularly across northern parts of the uk, but also heavy showers at times. so through the early hours, maybe some showers returning to southern parts of the uk, some cracks of thunder.

it's not a cold morning by any means — temperatures of around 1a in london, typically around 12—13 whether you're north or south. so further showers on the way on saturday, particularly across england and wales. later in the day, they could become heavy and move a little bit further north, but at the same time a lot of sunshine in the forecast around the irish sea for northern ireland, for western parts of scotland. 18 degrees in glasgow, but i think quite cloudy and much cooler along that north sea coast. and then notice the showers again here in the north—west through the course of saturday evening. and then on sunday the showers become more widespread and heavier across parts of england and wales. but again, the best of our weather on sunday will be in the north—west of the uk. so once again sunny spells for the western isles and not looking so bad there in belfast with a bit of sunshine too, but not so great for the south with all the cloud and the rain. now on monday, low pressure is over the uk. that again spells a fair amount of cloud outbreaks of rain and the air will start to come in from the north, so the temperatures will start

to drop from northern scotland, only 12 degrees in the south — still relatively warm. we're holding on to the mid, possibly the high teens. so here's the outlook for the week ahead. you can see that big drop in the temperature in the south — 1a degrees in london. but look at edinburgh — by tuesday it's only around 11 degrees with showers. that's it. bye—bye.

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