today, hezbollah expanded its range of fire, and later today, they will receive a very strong response. prepare yourselves. well, there'sjust been more incoming israeli fire and there is smoke rising now. we can't tell exactly what has been hit, but that is a residential area with residential blocks. we see a lot of stranded people with their suitcase, _ with small belongings thani they could bring with them. while escaping southern lebanon. _ they were just desperate to find a place. - we have heard again todayjust how dire the situation has become. the security council must deliver its responsibility for global peace and security. joining me tonight on the panel is mikey kay, former raf assault helicopter pilot and military strategist, and ivo daalder, former us representative to nato, now president of the chicago council on global affairs.

a lot to get through this evening. first, the latest headlines. the head of the israeli armed forces, herzi halevi, has said preparations are being made for a possible ground invasion of lebanon. visiting his troops in northern israel today he said the air force will continue degrading hezbollah to such a point that they can put boots on the ground. president putin has reiterated that russia reserved the right to use nuclear weapons if attacked by any state. he added that aggression by a non—nuclear state that was supported by a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack. democratic presidential kamala harris is scheduled to deliver a speech in pittsburgh laying out her plans for the economy if she's elected as president. speaking in the battleground state of pennsylvania,

she is expected to announce new incentives to boost domestic manufacturing and to grow the middle class. earth is set to gain a tiny second moon this weekend. scientists say a small asteroid is going to be captured by earth's gravitational pull until it breaks away late in november. just ten metres long, named 2024 pt5 as it's known only be observable by professional telescopes. if you arejustjoining us, welcome to the programme. the great and the good — some of them, not so good — are gathered in new york trying to piece together something, anything, that could prevent all out war in the middle east. the security council will reconvene shortly to discuss the escalation in israel and lebanon. the united states and france have been working up a proposal today which might lead to some

sort of truce in the north. though the americans still believe the best route to that is a hostage deal with hamas and a ceasefire in gaza. so there are a lot of moving parts. the concern, widespread, is that israel has for now given up on that peace process. the defense minister yoav gallant confirmed this morning "the centre of gravity" has shifted. they have called up two brigades of reserve soldiers. the head of the israeli armed forces, herzi halevi, says preparations are being made for a possible ground invasion. translation: we are not stopping. we will keep attacking and harming them everywhere. to do this, we are preparing to move. the sense is your military boots, your manoeuvre boots will enter enemy territory. your entry there, with force, will show them what it's like to meet a professional combat force. right now, diplomacy is failing. the deep divisions between the us and russia, china increasingly independent, means the security council is paralysed to intervene on any issue,

whether it is the middle east, the war in ukraine or the now dire situation in sudan. and then there;s the country not in the room, iran. and then there's the country not in the room — iran. president pezeshkian is in new york, simultaneously talking peace, while urging islamic countries to come to hezbollah�*s defence. tehran mains concern is preserving the proxies they have built, without getting dragged into a regional war themselves. translation: israel has been defeated in — translation: israel has been defeated in gaza _ translation: israel has been defeated in gaza and _ translation: israel has been defeated in gaza and no - translation: israel has been. defeated in gaza and no amount of violence could destroy its invincibility. naturally, the state — invincibility. naturally, the state terror and is a followed by massive aggressive —— aggression cannot go unanswered. the responsibility for all— unanswered. the responsibility for all consequences will be

warned _ for all consequences will be warned by those who afforded all efforts to end this horrific catastrophe and have the audacity to call themselves champions of human rights. all eyes turning to security council. let's bring in her colleagues. with us from new york this hour is our colleague sumi sumaskanda. not with much hope because the security council is pretty toothless. there is already un resolutions in place. but no way to enforce it.— resolutions in place. but no way to enforce it. indeed, that is the case. — way to enforce it. indeed, that is the case, which _ way to enforce it. indeed, that is the case, which is _ way to enforce it. indeed, that is the case, which is why - way to enforce it. indeed, that is the case, which is why it's . is the case, which is why it's hard to think there is that much optimism going into the security meeting. but everyone we've spoken to has said they are absolutely adamant that there must be of a step towards de—escalation between hezbollah and israel. we've been hearing from the pentagon spokesperson

sabrina singh, and she said it doesn't appear that a ground incursion into lebanon from israel is imminent. it's unclear if that is perhaps messaging from the pentagon from washington to israel for what they want to see happen on the ground — namely de—escalation. but we swelled to the swedish foreign minister and a number of people on the ground who are deeply concerned about what we're witnessing on the ground in lebanon at the moment and i mentioned to you the french of the us have this planned they are going to lay out from what we understand. i was just listening out from what we understand. i wasjust listening back out from what we understand. i was just listening back to that, and he said we have this road map, only time will tell. that gives you a sense of perhaps the optimism and hope going into this meeting expectations are perhaps not that high. we also spoke to the finish president about what he has seen from his conversations

—— finish -- finnish. it looks very difficult at the moment. so, what we're seeing now is israeli forces moving from gaza, going towards lebanon, and that to me is an indication of an escalation. and that's why i think all of us in the un, and of course, including the united states, need to try to contain israel not to continue this war any more. do you think a diplomatic solution should tie the two fronts? i think the diplomatic solution begins with a ceasefire and that is linked to hostages. after that, we need a truce. after that truce, we need international peacekeeping. after that, we need a political process, and with that political process, we need a two—state solution. i think the israeli prime minister is due to leave

tonight for new york. the point being is that he's in new york until sunday. do you think they're reserving a decision until he has heard what kind of plan the americans are talking about? ., . ., , plan the americans are talking about? ., .., , ., about? that could well be and i should say _ about? that could well be and i should say we _ about? that could well be and i should say we spoke _ about? that could well be and i should say we spoke to - about? that could well be and i should say we spoke to the - should say we spoke to the israeli ambassador to the un and we saw him this morning. we asked him if the israeli prime minister will be here in new york, and they said that is the bill up in the air. we will not get an answerjust bill up in the air. we will not get an answer just yet. bill up in the air. we will not get an answerjust yet. one thing the israeli ambassador did tell us is looking forward to this meeting, they are optimistic... he said what is very important for them to underline at the security council meeting is that they believe that iran and hezbollah are the aggressors here and they want that to be taken into

account in this meeting with peter. interesting to hearfrom the finish —— the finnish president. it looks unlikely given what we're seeing in lebanon. certainly, if the israeli prime minister is on the ground, it could very well be there hoping that there is some movement if they can speak together with him. the iranian president here as well and the palestinian side mahmoud abbas. we will have to see what comes out of this meeting. see what comes out of this meeting-— see what comes out of this meeting. see what comes out of this meetinu. ,, ., ., , , ~ meeting. sumi, good stuff. all the guest _ meeting. sumi, good stuff. all the guest that _ meeting. sumi, good stuff. all the guest that she's _ meeting. sumi, good stuff. all the guest that she's spoken i meeting. sumi, good stuff. all the guest that she's spoken to | the guest that she's spoken to today, thank you very much indeed. let me pick up with you, ivo, because a key part of all this is iran's position. if you want to think of it this way, they are iran's forward defences, they are the buffer

against israel, they're getting better. what do they do about it because i can very much define what happens next? == define what happens next? -- because define what happens next? » because that. what we are seeing is the bind that tehran finds itself in. it is use these forces as the forward deployment of its efforts to in the first instance from attacking iraq and in the second instance to undermine israel's capacity. one hesitation we've seen from tehran and hezbollah has been this idea that the forces that hezbollah still has a need to be reserved. israel has a different calculation. it woke up different calculation. it woke up on october the 7th with this massive extraordinary terrorist attack, the worst day of violence againstjews since the

holocaust. calculated from that moment, we can never be in this situation where we're this vulnerable. we can talk about how effective that was, but that was the focus. now the focus is on hezbollah and to move that threat to israel. not just in the northern border, to israel proper. as long as iran is around and supporting hezbollah and all the other states, actually removing the security threat militarily in the end can only be done if you are also willing to go to war against iran. and that's not what anybody wants, including in israel. ~ ~ , what anybody wants, including in israel. , ., ., ., in israel. mikey, a lot of peeple _ in israel. mikey, a lot of peeple have _ in israel. mikey, a lot of people have questioned| in israel. mikey, a lot of - people have questioned why israel escalated so quickly. first eans floating majors and then the admittance bombardment on monday —— exploding pagers. i think someone will explain to me what is going on, but i

think it would allow if —— if it allowed us once and for all, it allowed us once and for all, it would take the fight to the iran. ., ., it would take the fight to the iran. . ., , ., iran. there are a couple of thins iran. there are a couple of things at _ iran. there are a couple of things at the _ iran. there are a couple of things at the moment. - iran. there are a couple of| things at the moment. the intelligence that at the idf seem _ intelligence that at the idf seem to have on hezbollah seems to he _ seem to have on hezbollah seems to be pretty solid in terms of preemptive strikes. answering the question of the build—up, it started _ the question of the build—up, it started way before the pagers _ it started way before the pagers in this recent artillery strike — pagers in this recent artillery strike. it's been going on since _ strike. it's been going on since the beginning of the yeah _ since the beginning of the year. you had idf strikes on the — year. you had idf strikes on the iranian embassy in damascus. you had idf strikes on key— damascus. you had idf strikes on key hezbollah targets in syria — on key hezbollah targets in syria. you had idf strikes on targets— syria. you had idf strikes on targets inside beirut. so, there's— targets inside beirut. so, there's been a gradual build—up since _ there's been a gradual build—up since january of this year and this— since january of this year and this is— since january of this year and this is sort— since january of this year and this is sort of the combination of it— this is sort of the combination of it all— this is sort of the combination of it all if— this is sort of the combination of it all if you like. coming

back— of it all if you like. coming back to _ of it all if you like. coming back to my original point, you have — back to my original point, you have israel that preemptively struck— have israel that preemptively struck hezbollah in the last month, _ struck hezbollah in the last month, yet at the same time, the intelligence seems to let them — the intelligence seems to let them down on october the 7th, 2023, _ them down on october the 7th, 2023, without a primitive stripe _ 2023, without a primitive stripe on what arguably was the werst— stripe on what arguably was the worst strike on israel since the — worst strike on israel since the holocaust. one of the big questions i've got is where is the weak— questions i've got is where is the weak spot inside idf intelligence? why it wasn't that— intelligence? why it wasn't that preemptive strike that occurred to prevent what occurred? and why are we seeing such— occurred? and why are we seeing such preemptive strikes and set forward — such preemptive strikes and set forward thinking from the idf on taking out hezbollah? do you think that some _ on taking out hezbollah? do you think that some weight - think that some weight undermines the confidence. i was reporting in lebanon in 2006. the israelis got in and got pulled out some months

later. do you think that kappen intelligence is what mightjust be playing on the commanders ivo mines at the moment? i ivo mines at the moment? i certainly hope so. we saw on october the 7th that it isn't perfect —— on the commanders ivo minds. ——' minds. it seems that after 2006, this lebanon war that endedin 2006, this lebanon war that ended in a stalemate in an israeli shellacking and defeat they both learned a lot of lessons. hezbollah need to learn that it could have strategic abilities whatever it wanted to and it has 200,000 rockets and missiles. in the

israelis have decided they needed enough intelligence to prints this. —— preempt. the kind of strikes we've seen from the air in the last few days again seem to have degraded hezbollah's capabilities quite significantly and in a number of strikes — 1,600 strikes on monday. of strikes —1,600 strikes on monday. yet this capability, this preps the point that this is more about military and politics, which is beyond just technology and intelligence. i worry on overconfidence on the israel side that they may have

achieved tactically, but not strategically.— achieved tactically, but not strategically. can we focus on that missile _ strategically. can we focus on that missile that... _ let's focus for a second if we could on that missile that hezbollah fired at tel aviv this morning — first time they have done that. the target was mossad hq. you will see in this video a white plume of smoke, which is the moment the missile was intercepted by the iron dome system. and soon after that, idf struck the location from which it had been fired. the bbc verified team have geo—located that position, it's about 136km 84 miles from tel aviv. what does all that tell you about the capability of hezbollah and israel's ability to defeat it? it's significant. hezbollah are battle — it's significant. hezbollah are battle hardened at the moment. they've — battle hardened at the moment. they've been in combat inside syria — they've been in combat inside syria for— they've been in combat inside syria for the past decade. they've _ syria for the past decade. they've obviously taken they've obviously ta ken attrition they've obviously taken attrition from that. at the

same _ attrition from that. at the same time, the logistics supply of weaponry to hezbollah to forces — of weaponry to hezbollah to forces from iran is now a well oiled — forces from iran is now a well oiled machine. these are significant armaments that you're _ significant armaments that you're seeing inside southern lehanon. _ you're seeing inside southern lebanon, the israeli forces today— lebanon, the israeli forces today used the whole setup of lidar _ today used the whole setup of lidar and — today used the whole setup of lidar and missiles. there today used the whole setup of lidarand missiles. there is significant armament now coming through— significant armament now coming through syria because of the relationship but has alive evolved. i think the other thing that's really— i think the other thing that's really important is what distinguishes hezbollah's situation from the situation in gaza? — situation from the situation in gaza? i've _ situation from the situation in gaza? i've been through the tunnels— gaza? i've been through the tunnels in southern lebanon that— tunnels in southern lebanon that hezbollah has. it doesn't take — that hezbollah has. it doesn't take a — that hezbollah has. it doesn't take a quick glance just to

look— take a quick glance just to look back in vietnam, more were dropped — look back in vietnam, more were dropped on — look back in vietnam, more were dropped on vietnam than the entire — dropped on vietnam than the entire week of world war ii. —— entirety — so, in military strategy, there's— so, in military strategy, there's always this conversation about whilst air power— conversation about whilst air power and superiority might be significant, can actually win the war— significant, can actually win the war on the ground? if you do put — the war on the ground? if you do put boots on the ground, and is illegal— do put boots on the ground, and is illegal will have to in order— is illegal will have to in order to weed out who they regard _ order to weed out who they regard as the enemy, that necessarily will lead to what people — necessarily will lead to what people will call us assess —— and — people will call us assess —— and israel— people will call us assess —— and israel will have to —— call and israel will have to —— call a success _ and israel will have to —— call a success. netanyahu and the idf a success. netanyahu and the w have _ a success. netanyahu and the idf have to define in their own strategy— idf have to define in their own strategy what does success look like, _ strategy what does success look like, what does win mean, what is the _ like, what does win mean, what is the definition.—

is the definition. that 'ust isn't there. i is the definition. that 'ust isn't there. the �* is the definition. that just isn't there. the technicall isn't there. the technical know—how is there, but the endgame strategy is not defined. it's very interesting listening to both. there are a lot of conversations about how this is going on, and i think you both very eloquently to find how we might get there. let's take a short break. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news.

welcome back. earlier this year, an american airlines pilot who was flying above pakistan received an alarm signal in him cockpit, telling him to pull up. in fact, he was cruising at 32,000 feet, far above any terrain or any dangers. the signal he had received was bogus, known as gps spoofing. these fake signals that militaries will typically use to confuse incoming drones and missiles. but the industry says they are now becoming

more common in areas beyond active conflict zones. in fact, we have found an ai programme, that is compiling a map of these spoofing incidents. you'll see a lot of these spots are over the middle east and ukraine, over the balkan countries and belarus, where they are used for military purposes, but those dots now starting to spread across the map. in fact, the civil aviation authorities what started as a handful of spoofing incidents last year, increased to more than 1,000 in august. joining me is ross sagan, a former commercial airline pilot. good to have you with us. you ever come across this when you are fine —— were flying? i'zre are fine -- were flying? i've come across _ are fine -- were flying? i've come across similar - come across similar circumstances where the gps had a failure and affected the ground proximity system. but i believe it was more environmental than intentional. why do you think it's accelerating and becoming more common? ~ ~ �* . accelerating and becoming more common? ~ ,, �*, ., common? well, i think it's a treat common? well, i think it's a great strategy _ common? well, i think it's a great strategy for _ common? well, i think it's a great strategy for those -

common? well, i think it's a great strategy for those thatj great strategy for those that would like to confuse aircraft penetrating their airspace in the middle east and eastern europe. the middle east and eastern euro e. �* ., the middle east and eastern euroe. �* . ., europe. i'm reading some of the incidents that _ europe. i'm reading some of the incidents that the _ europe. i'm reading some of the incidents that the wall _ europe. i'm reading some of the incidents that the wall street i incidents that the wall street journal collected. you have a spoof signal that centred around without clearance. suddenly reporting a severe map shift. boeing 787 brought to two landings, one more than 50 feet above the ground. if you're coming into land with the reduced visibility and suddenly you lose gps, that's quite serious, isn't it? it suddenly you lose gps, that's quite serious, isn't it?- quite serious, isn't it? it is. it's currently _ quite serious, isn't it? it is. it's currently very _ quite serious, isn't it? it is. it's currently very limited i quite serious, isn't it? it is. it's currently very limited in j it's currently very limited in scope. something that people have to be very aware of and it could have potentially consequences if you lose

navigational performances. this can be very serious. have to keepin can be very serious. have to keep in mind that the gps drives the ground proximity warning system as well, so if those signals are compromised, separation from objects on the ground can be compromised as well. ~ ~ , . well. mikey, give us the military _ well. mikey, give us the military aspect, - well. mikey, give us the military aspect, gives i well. mikey, give us the military aspect, gives a | well. mikey, give us the - military aspect, gives a better idea of what it's actually used for. sorry, let mejust bring in mikey. i for. sorry, let me 'ust bring in mikeyh in mikey. i think if you go traditionally _ in mikey. i think if you go traditionally the - in mikey. i think if you go traditionally the way - in mikey. i think if you go traditionally the way it's i in mikey. i think if you go - traditionally the way it's been used — traditionally the way it's been used in — traditionally the way it's been used in afghanistan is if you -et used in afghanistan is if you get a — used in afghanistan is if you get a convoy going from kabul to kandahar, there will be a lot of— to kandahar, there will be a lot of comp from my station attempts, triggered by an rf signal — attempts, triggered by an rf signal. they would carry jamming paws on them which

would — jamming paws on them which would interrupt any rf signal to trigger this when the convoy -ot to trigger this when the convoy got close _ to trigger this when the convoy got close. he to trigger this when the convoy not close. ., to trigger this when the convoy got close-— got close. he would perhaps ick u- got close. he would perhaps pick up and _ got close. he would perhaps pick up and it _ got close. he would perhaps pick up and it would - got close. he would perhaps pick up and it would be - got close. he would perhaps pick up and it would be an i pick up and it would be an usual to pick up unintentionally? usual to pick up unintentionall ? ., , , usual to pick up unintentionall ? , , ., unintentionally? probably up to a coule unintentionally? probably up to a couple hundred _ unintentionally? probably up to a couple hundred feet. - unintentionally? probably up to a couple hundred feet. like - a couple hundred feet. like with— a couple hundred feet. like with any— a couple hundred feet. like with any signal, they usually fly over— with any signal, they usually fly over 30,000 feet if they're a long—haul flight. fly over 30,000 feet if they're a long—haulflight. i'd fly over 30,000 feet if they're a long—haul flight. i'd like more _ a long—haul flight. i'd like more information on this on where — more information on this on where these are occurring. as the gentleman previously suggested, if they are on a gps approach — suggested, if they are on a gps approach and they're in increment weather, as you alluded _ increment weather, as you alluded to, that's a significant issue. alluded to, that's a siunificant issue. ~ , ., significant issue. why do you think it's spreading, - significant issue. why do you think it's spreading, max - significant issue. why do you i think it's spreading, max one?

have you ever come across this in your capacity? haste have you ever come across this in your capacity?— in your capacity? we know the russians are _ in your capacity? we know the russians are doing _ in your capacity? we know the russians are doing gps - in your capacity? we know the i russians are doing gps jamming —— ivo. if you talk to commercial pilots flying in the baltics or in finland, they are complaining about a quite regular occurrence in which their gpa signal either disappears or malfunctions and they've gotten quite used to this. i do think that we are seeing russian intelligence and russian military intervention increasingly beyond the immediate bowel zone in ukraine. —— battle zone. one way the russians have started to retaliate in their mind to western support for ukraine is to engage in this kind of warfare that is designed to make it more difficult and to disrupt. even the civilian economic lifeline that is in

europe and even in the united states. so that is certainly one of the things we are increasingly worried about. ok. increasingly worried about. ok, we'll keep _ increasingly worried about. ok, we'll keep our _ increasingly worried about. ok, we'll keep our eye _ increasingly worried about. ok, we'll keep our eye on that story. ross, it's really good of you to join us. story. ross, it's really good of you tojoin us. thank story. ross, it's really good of you to join us. thank you very much. i should assure you that pilots are trained on how to use and how to fly without gps navigation systems, so they're not entirely flying blind. it is interesting that it's something that is going quite rapidly over the last year. we're going to take a short break. we have lots going on the other side of the break. i just been watching president zelensky, in president biden's company. the presentation of that victory plan tomorrow and the role the chinese are playing. it is significant. stay with us. hello. as we head towards the end of september, it has been a pretty wet month for many, especially across central and southern parts of the uk. we've had more rain around on wednesday, and over the next few days, it's still looking pretty wet. there'll be some

strong winds as well. perhaps something a little bit drier and quieter by the time we get to the weekend. but for the here and now, this is the rainfall we're likely to see accumulate between now and the end of friday, could be as much as 18mm. perhaps parts of north east england, potentially through the midlands into wales as well, so areas that could really do without seeing more rainfall as it falls on that saturated ground. so, low pressure is driving our weather. it's gradually shifting its way eastwards at the moment. we've got some rain for the rest of this evening and tonight, pushing across central and eastern parts of england, northern england, it's going to be pretty persistent overnight. northern ireland also seeing some outbreaks of rain to the south of that, clear interludes and intermittent heavy showers, perhaps some thunderstorms rattling through overnight as well. it's northern and central parts of scotland that are going to stay driest for longest, but temperatures falling into single figures here. most of us though, sticking in double figures overnight. but through the day on thursday, that rain is going to be quite persistent for parts of northeast england, driven in with that brisk easterly wind. northern ireland also looking pretty wet for a good part of the day.

further south across england and wales, sunshine and showers, but the showers could be torrential at times, bringing a threat of localised flooding. some hail in the mix, some lightning as well. 18 degrees in the sunshine in between the showers. cooler but drier for the north of scotland. that cooler air then sinks a little bit further south across the uk as we move through into friday. so, a bit of a change in wind direction. still some heavy rain for many central and southeastern parts to start the day on friday. looks like that clears away, and then we're back into clearer, fresher conditions with sunshine and a few blustery showers as well. temperatures ranging between only about 9—10 in the north to 13 or 1a towards the south, do certainly a colder feeling day friday. fast forward into saturday, first thing could look like this. some frosty conditions, two or three degrees in some of our towns and cities. could be a little bit colder than that in the more rural spots. so, heading through the course of the weekend, then a lot of dry and settled weather on the cards. we've got this area of high pressure dominating our weather, although it will feel colder. a front brings a few showers across the north of scotland, and then later on sunday, the next area of rain moves in from the southwest. but it won't be as wet as it has been across central

and southern parts of england. perhaps a bit more rain in the north and the west on sunday. bye— bye.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. ukraine's president, volodymyr zelensky, has warned the united nations delegates that russia is preparing a serious escalation of its war against his country.