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tv   Business Today  BBC News  October 1, 2024 5:30am-6:01am BST

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ports shutdown: dockworkers begin an indefinite strike in the us east coast, threatening significant trade and economic disruption ahead of the presidential election. japan's new prime minister prepares to be sworn in, but why aren't investors convinced about his economic vision? also on the programme, tariffs on chinese—made evs come into force in canada: we hear from the country's trade minister on the reasons behind the move.
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and what would you do with a spare 25 billion euros? that's the question facing the irish government today as it delivers its budget following a huge tax windfall from tech firms. live from london, this is business today. i'm lukwesa burak. we start in the us where in the last 30 minutes tens of thousands of east and gulf coast port workers have started striking for the first time in nearly 50 years. this comes after the international longshoremen�*s association and the us maritime alliance were unable to reach an agreement on the terms of their contract. the strikes will halt trade in a wide range of goods and disrupt the country's economy just as we enter the final weeks
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before the presidential election. our north america business correspondent ritika gupt the two major sticking points between international longshoreman �*s association and the us maritime alliance are wages and automation for the workers are unhappy with the current contract which spanned the pandemic and dockworkers stayed on the job and endured months of soaring inflation. on automation, the union boss has been warning dockworkers at their jobs been warning dockworkers at theirjobs could be replaced by machines. in response, the us maritime alliance says it is offering to keep the current ban on fully automatic with rent. a strike would cost the us economy $5 million a day according tojp morgan according to jp morgan analysts. according tojp morgan analysts. a range of goods flow through the eastern gulf coast ports, everything from raw materials and pharmaceuticals clothes and toys, with the ports accounting for more than half of containerised imports. while consumers may not feel the impact of the strikes right
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away, if it extends four weeks, it could lead to shortages and higher prices ahead of the presidential election. that is something you your governor cathy hogan weighed in on. the otential cathy hogan weighed in on. the potential for— cathy hogan weighed in on. tue: potential for disruption cathy hogan weighed in on. tte: potential for disruption is significant. we have not had an event like this in our ports since 1977, and that lasted 12 days. we are deeply concerned about the impact that a strike would have on our supply chains, especially when it comes to critical goods like medical supplies and others. under the 19117 act, president biden has the authority to order striking dockworkers back to work, by the current administration has said it will not intervene and encourages all parties to keep negotiating in good faith. well, let's discuss this in more details. i'm joined now by tad dehaven, policy analyst at the free market think—tank the cato institute. hello. welcome to the
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programme. t hello. welcome to the programme-— hello. welcome to the programme. hello. welcome to the rouramme. ., _, programme. i wonder if i could ask ou, programme. i wonder if i could ask you. it _ programme. i wonder if i could ask you, it has _ programme. i wonder if i could ask you, it has taken _ programme. i wonder if i could ask you, it has taken 50 - programme. i wonder if i could ask you, it has taken 50 years| ask you, it has taken 50 years to get to this point. this give us some of indication just how serious matters are? well, it is an nic white the powerplay and it is not a coincidence that we are just a little bit over a month away from the election, so you have the administration, they are proud of its organised labour record and by extension vice president harris is running on the same platform. then you have the wildcard of the republican ticket with president trump who is also trying to siphon off union support, so this is a headache for the biden administration by extension vice president harris because they really don't want to have to step in this situation, the unions are very important for such things, at the same time the american people don't have short memories when it comes to
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inflation and higher prices, the longer this goes on, the likelihood of higher prices and perhaps shortages grows, and thatis perhaps shortages grows, and that is obviously a headache that is obviously a headache that they don't want coming to the election from the white house's perspective. tt is the election from the white house's perspective. it is an indefinite — house's perspective. it is an indefinite striking. _ house's perspective. it is an indefinite striking. in - house's perspective. it is an indefinite striking. in terms| indefinite striking. in terms of timing, yes, we talk about the election, but how long would it take for the impact of these strikes to filter through to the us consumer? we have also got really the big, big cost for america coming up, thanksgiving, and of course christmas. good things possibly be resolved by then? t christmas. good things possibly be resolved by then?— be resolved by then? i would like to think _ be resolved by then? i would like to think that _ be resolved by then? i would like to think that something l like to think that something will be resolved. again, i don't think the administration and vp harris wants to come into the election day with this for weeks out because the longer this goes on, yes, the likelihood of price increases, shortages, all sorts of
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problems, even after a week you are going to have ships sitting there, so even if this does resolve itself after a week, you are still going to have this backlog, so you compound that as we get one week, two weeks in three weeks and so forth. ~ ., ., weeks in three weeks and so forth. ~ . . ., ., forth. what are the alternate routes to _ forth. what are the alternate routes to lessen _ forth. what are the alternate routes to lessen mitigate - forth. what are the alternate j routes to lessen mitigate the negative impact of all this? that is kind of the problem is we have a ready seen a lot of importers of taking actions in anticipation of a shutdown, and i think a good example that i read about was an order of asparagus in florida. traditionally they import asparagus from the miami port. info this week you had deflating from paroo and whose translation costs, and as he said, that will be, if he has to pass it onto the stores, it will be up to them to eat it or pass it to consumers. either way, that is not good for the us economy.
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way, that is not good for the us economy-— way, that is not good for the us econom . ., ~ , ., , us economy. 0k. thank you very much for that. _ us economy. 0k. thank you very much for that. thank _ us economy. 0k. thank you very much for that. thank you. - us economy. 0k. thank you very much for that. thank you. thank | much for that. thank you. thank ou. staying in the us, and a more positive note for the us economy, courtesy of the chair of the federal reserve. speaking on monday at a conference in nashville, jerome powell said the country's economy seems poised for a continued slowdown in inflation that will allow the fed to cut its benchmark interest rate and over time reach a level that is no longer holding back activity. analysts have interpreted the comments as a signal that the us central bank would consider reverting to its more usual quarter—point cut in november if economic data remained robust. let's go live to jane foley, head of fx strategy at rabobank. good morning to you. lovely to have you with us. what really struck well with investors and
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economists from whatjerome powell had to say? we economists from what jerome powell had to say?— economists from what jerome powell had to say? we have to remember _ powell had to say? we have to remember that _ powell had to say? we have to remember that only _ powell had to say? we have to remember that only a - powell had to say? we have to remember that only a few- powell had to say? we have to l remember that only a few weeks ago the federal reserve cut interest rates by a huge 50 basis points, and there has been circulation in the market that they might do that again, so maybe another 50 basis points potentially in november when it is their next meeting. but what we had yesterday from jerome powell was indication they will properly stick to 25 basis points, a quarter of 1% rather than half of 1%, and he said the central method is they will go perhaps twice more this year. so again in december by another 25 basis points. the markets had to downplay the expectations of how much easing will get between now and the end of the yearjust will get between now and the end of the year just to will get between now and the end of the yearjust to touch, and because you have to remember while the fed has indicated it is now looking more at the employment side rather than the inflation side, the news you have been
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discussing for instance with the dockworkers strike, it does adjust there is still potential inflation shocks out there in the federal reserve will have two take into account. so that the another factor going into the another factor going into the decision in november two moved by 25 basis points rather than 50. a , moved by 25 basis points rather than50. ,~ ., ,,, moved by 25 basis points rather than50. ,~ ., i, , than 50. many analysts say the us could well _ than 50. many analysts say the us could well achieve - than 50. many analysts say the us could well achieve this - than 50. many analysts say the us could well achieve this soft| us could well achieve this soft landing that we have been hearing so much about. it comes to the us, what do you mean by a soft landing? tt to the us, what do you mean by a soft landing?— a soft landing? it means managing _ a soft landing? it means managing to _ a soft landing? it means managing to slow- a soft landing? it means managing to slow the i a soft landing? it means - managing to slow the economy down, get inflation lower, towards the 2% target but without causing a recession. a recession would neither have —— mean a hard landing. new data last week said there wasn't a revision for the second quarter output and that was very much an encouraging factor. the market is of course still looking at the forward—looking data, and this week we have the key us labour report on friday and we saw that today, a number
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of other indications which will give a fresher flavour about how the economy is doing right now. ., ~' how the economy is doing right now. ., ~ , ., , . now. 0k, thank you very much indeed. to japan now, where the new prime minister will shortly be sworn in in a ceremony at tokyo's imperial palace. on monday, shigeru ishiba announced plans for a snap election on october 27. after winning the leadership election, mr ishiba said he would revitalise japan's economy and address security threats. he has also hinted at supporting raising the bank of japan's interest rates and looking at raising corporate taxes. but tokyo's nikkei 225 index fell nearly 5% on the news. i'm joined now by professor seijiro takeshita from the graduate school of management informatics and innovation at the
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university of shizuoka. professor, welcome to the programme. what is it then about the new prime minister's and —— economic policies that people are not happy with? actually, many were expecting him to be the prime minister, who basically were giving warning signs for further rate rises. obviously they expected recently a much more buoyant stock market, but that wasn't to be. mr shigeru ishiba in my opinion is saying a very rational thing, which is get some discipline into our fiscal policy and we may have two raise taxes as well. something that many other politicians should have said but did not, but the real worrying thing that i got today as when he announced his cabinet members, you are asking for a division within the ldp and this is
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pretty bad news, especially considering that we have two major elections coming up next year as well. major elections coming up next year as well-— year as well. yes, a lot of volatility _ year as well. yes, a lot of volatility there. _ year as well. yes, a lot of volatility there. what - year as well. yes, a lot of volatility there. what is l year as well. yes, a lot of i volatility there. what is the feeling about what would happen next? tt feeling about what would happen next? , ., ., , ., , next? it is going to be a very rocky road — next? it is going to be a very rocky road because, - next? it is going to be a very rocky road because, for- rocky road because, for example, for the ministry members, he appointed the minister of internal affairs, who basically called the then prime minister a traitor and was expelled from ldp for more than a year. making him the internal affair communication minister and many others and not one coming from his faction. i am not one coming from his faction. iam not not one coming from his faction. i am not an advocate of factual basis politics, but you are asking for division you are not really trying to include the biggest faction members into your group, and you can see this by the reaction of the adviser, and he
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didn't evenjoin for a reaction of the adviser, and he didn't even join for a photo session. you can imagine that this is going to be very difficult. if you have an internal crack, how will you cope with external factors? letter about the external factors, and what does japan's economy need? what measures could give it the best they need? ~ ., could give it the best they need? ~ . ., , , could give it the best they need? ~ . . , , , need? what it really needs is the corporations _ need? what it really needs is the corporations which - the corporations which basically is to invest a lot more on economic and multiplying type of investment rather than backpedalling pipe of sustaining women resource, etc. but this is a mindset that has to change, and in my opinion, the government has to really start becoming a lot more selective in who they want to save andrew they don't, little more of a western type i wouldn't say draconian, but at least a lot more fairer type of transitional type of economy, which induces and kicks the
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ceos to actually start making a positive move rather than sitting down and waiting and complaining to the government. professor, thank you very much indeed. thank you. let's get some of the day's other news now. businesses in the uk have been banned from withholding tips or service charges from their staff under new rules which have come into force today. all tips, whether in cash or by card, must be shared between workers by law, with millions working for cafes, pubs, restaurants, taxi companies and hairdressers most likely to benefit. if an employer breaks the law and retains tips, a worker will be able to bring a claim to an employment tribunal. qatar airways has announced that it plans to buy a 25% stake in virgin australia. the middle eastern airline has been trying to increase flights from australia and was blocked by the canberra government last year.
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as part of the deal, virgin australia plans to launch flights from major australian cities to doha by 2025. the purchase is still subject to regulatory approval. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.
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now, to canada. from today, a 100% tariff on chinese—made evs comes into force in a move similar to those of the united states and european union. all of them are concerned that china's cheap cars are unfairly distorting the global market for what is still an emerging technology. canada's international trade minister has told the bbc that she hopes her country is not entering a trade war with china. here's our business reporterjonathanjosephs.
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chinese car companies are producing and exporting record numbers of electric vehicles stop they've had huge financial support from the government, which says canada's tariffs are against global trade rules. the low prices might mean tackling climate change more affordable, but canada's trade minister told me that is not enough. irate told me that is not enough. we know that _ told me that is not enough. - know that china has an intentional state directed policy of more capacity, and that they generally don't have, bird me the same environmental labour standards as canadian producers do, so these tariffs are a necessary measure to counter those practices, and that really distort competition, and i think what you are seeing in canada's decision is a decision that will ensure that we stand up for our workers and our manufacturers and that we are building those evs of the
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future and also standing up for fair trade. . ., , future and also standing up for fair trade-— fair trade. china has already started the _ fair trade. china has already started the process - fair trade. china has already started the process of - started the process of retaliating against these tariffs. your canola oil producers look like they are in the firing line. can you afford to win a trade war against the world was my second biggest economy? t world was my second biggest economy?— world was my second biggest econom ? ., , ., economy? i hope we are entering a trade war- _ economy? i hope we are entering a trade war. what _ economy? i hope we are entering a trade war. what i _ economy? i hope we are entering a trade war. what i said - economy? i hope we are entering a trade war. what i said and - a trade war. what i said and what this is about is making sure that this is we are encountering practices that are in the global marketplace, but on the issue of canadian canola, no—one has ever accused canadian producers of ever jumping into a market. canadians are fair traders. you sa ou canadians are fair traders. you say you are — canadians are fair traders. you say you are not _ canadians are fair traders. you say you are not interested in trade war, but your government is already looking at tariffs on chinese ev batteries, semiconductors, solar products and critical minerals. are you sure that won't lead to a trade war? t sure that won't lead to a trade war? ., . . war? i think what that is intended _ war? i think what that is intended to _ war? i think what that is intended to there - war? i think what that is intended to there is - war? i think what that is intended to there is a i war? i think what that is i intended to there is a level dying field. we have, we are
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imprisoning a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium products imported by china that will come into effect in the middle of october, so what we are trying to do here is stand up for a fairer trading system. china has taken its grievances to the world trade organization, but in a world of increasingly fragmented trade, the solution seems a long way off. jonathanjosephs, bbc off. jonathan josephs, bbc news. now, here's a question — what would you do with a spare 25 billion euros? well, that's the perhaps enviable position that the irish government has to grapple with after earning a huge windfall from tax—resident tech firms. today, the country's finance minister, jack chambers, will deliver his budget and will have to decide what to do with this surplus. it sounds like the kind of problem most finance ministers would dream of, but things are a little more
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challenging below the surface. ireland's unemployment rate hit its highest rate in 2.5 years injuly, and the irish fiscal advisory council has previously warned against pumping money into the economy. still a lot of money, though, isn't it? let's speak now tojoe nellis, professor of global economy at cranfield university. what challenges is island facing in terms of deciding where to spend that $25 billion? —— ireland. where to spend that $25 billion? -- ireland.- where to spend that $25 billion? -- ireland. this is an election _ billion? -- ireland. this is an election year— billion? -- ireland. this is an election year for _ billion? -- ireland. this is an election year for a _ billion? -- ireland. this is an election year for a ireland - billion? -- ireland. this is an election year for a ireland so | election year for a ireland so there will be an election in there will be an election in the next few months, certainly before next march. so what you are going to see if there is a budget designed to keep the electorate happy, the coalition government wants to make sure that they win enough votes. this will be a good time for
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the irish people, and what will they do with this money? look, they do with this money? look, they have similar problems to they have similar problems to the ones in the uk. there is going to be a cost of living allowance, some help for students, infrastructure projects, goodness me, it will be a bonanza. business will come early for many irish people. come early for many irish --eole. , . ., ., people. keep the electorate ha . . l people. keep the electorate happy. but _ people. keep the electorate happy. but what _ people. keep the electorate happy, but what about - people. keep the electorate happy, but what about the l happy, but what about the economy itself?— happy, but what about the economy itself? happy, but what about the econom itself? economy itself? good point. the main concern — economy itself? good point. the main concern is _ economy itself? good point. the main concern is not _ main concern is not unemployment. yes, is highest for 2.5 years, but only a.3%, which is in line with the uk unemployment rate and it will edge up slowly. the big concern of course is going to be inflation because being a member of the eurozone, the irish government has no control over interest rates, and therefore, if they do pumping a lot of money to the economy, and if it does spark off inflation, and they have a problem. the good news once again is that inflation at the
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moment in ireland is exceptionally low. well below the 2% target set by the ecd. we are in a good position but have to be careful. i'm quite sure, quite confident that the government will make people feel a bit happier today. flour feel a bit happier today. our the tech firms _ feela bit happiertoday. our the tech firms happy with all of this? . , , ,, of this? that is the big issue. the big challenge _ of this? that is the big issue. the big challenge for - of this? that is the big issue. the big challenge for ireland| the big challenge for ireland as i said is not unemployment, it's actually keeping the tech firms happy, because ireland is so reliant on the tech firms and registered there for tax purposes that is there is a sudden change in sentiment towards ireland, then there could be an outflow of funds. so keeping them happy is critical. the harder they do that, the irish government will keep investing in the country, keep investing in the country, keep investing in education, keep investing in education, keep making sure that the talent pool is there for tech firms. but again, this is a challenge for sure. professor,
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thank you _ challenge for sure. professor, thank you very _ challenge for sure. professor, thank you very much - challenge for sure. professor, thank you very much indeed. l challenge for sure. professor, i thank you very much indeed. but a problem to have. 25 billion euros free. as we reported on the programme yesterday, the last coal—fired power station in britain shut down at midnight last night. ratcliffe—on—soar in nottinghamshire had been generating powerfor the last 57 years. the uk has now become the first major economy to quit coal. well, the author and playwright, james graham, is a passionate believer that the uk's industrial heritage should be repurposed, not demolished. the cluster of concrete hours of ratcliffe—on—soar tell me i'm home. like a greeting party of eight welcoming me back to a place with all this heritage and history. but we are so rarely for some reason ever allowed to keep. my own community mind the coal to carry that plant to power the cattle the 1 billion teas made ijy cattle the 1 billion teas made by people of england today.
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ratcliffe is the last man standing on the battlefield. and it has often been a battlefield here.- and it has often been a battlefield here. the police were involved _ battlefield here. the police were involved in _ battlefield here. the police were involved in some i battlefield here. the police were involved in some of. battlefield here. the police i were involved in some of the most — were involved in some of the most vicious fighting of the entire _ most vicious fighting of the entire miners dispute. the briton that _ entire miners dispute. the briton that is _ entire miners dispute. the briton that is going i entire miners dispute. the briton that is going to be forged _ briton that is going to be forged in— briton that is going to be forged in the _ briton that is going to be forged in the white i briton that is going to be forged in the white heatl briton that is going to be i forged in the white heat of this— forged in the white heat of this revolution. _ forged in the white heat of this revolution.— forged in the white heat of this revolution. they rose on the wilson's _ this revolution. they rose on the wilson's white _ this revolution. they rose on the wilson's white heat i the wilson's white heat revolution, and 57 years, for the people these giant sentinels have stood quietly on the horizon. big bend wouldn't come close to seeing the size, the statue of liberty would be dwarfed inside it. not only genius phase of engineering, but genuinely beautiful architectural forms. they really do soar upwards, high enough to kiss the clouds. what will remain that reminds us that we used to build such things? stay with us here on bbc news. coming up shortly we will be bringing you the latest on the
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developing situation in the middle east. it isjust coming up middle east. it isjust coming up to 7:55am in beirut, and it is here that israel has launched its offensive into southern lebanon. more on that coming up shortly here on bbc news. hello there. well, as we start off october, things are looking a little drier for a couple of days, but it has been a very wet september across the southern half of the uk. in fact, some spots towards the south of england have seen three or four times the average september rainfall. and it's notjust been the wettest september on record for some places, it's also been the wettest month on record. there's been more flooding in didcot in oxfordshire here on monday, more flood warnings in force as we head through the rest of the night, mostly for central and northwestern areas of england, where we're seeing
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the heaviest of the downpours. but that low has now pulled out into the north sea. still strong, gusty winds for these north sea—facing coasts, some more rain gradually sinking further southwards and eastwards across central—southern england. but some clear skies out towards the north and the west, so, here, a locally chilly start to the day on tuesday. now, on tuesday, that low is still bringing some more cloud and some rainjust swirling around it. some of that rain could push a little further westwards at times, it will be lighter than on monday, of course, and we've still got that brisk northeasterly wind across coastal areas of yorkshire, lincolnshire and down through northern areas of norfolk too. the best of the sunshine out towards the west, for much of scotland, into northern ireland, western wales and southwest england. and here, we could see temperatures rise to around 16 or 17 celsius. and then on wednesday, well, high pressure starts to edge down from the north, so we're all going to be seeing that dry, sunnier—feeling weather as we head through wednesday and thursday. but it's going to take a while, i think, still for that low to clear across southeast england, east anglia.
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still some showers here and a bit more in the way of cloud. some of the showers blowing a little further westwards at times, but lots of sunshine further north and west, some areas of cloud at times. chance of one or two isolated showers, but temperatures 15 to 17 celsius in the best of the brightness. and on thursday, it's going to be a locally chilly start to the day. a touch of frost, perhaps, in the north, a bit of mist around with those lighter winds, but for the vast majority of us, a dry day with plenty of sunshine. cloud developing here and there, and temperatures have now returned to the seasonal average, so 1a to 17 degrees north to south. on friday, we start to see more cloud edging from the north and the west. the best of the sunshine further south and east. and over the weekend, well, we've got rain pushing eastwards again. bye—bye for now.
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good morning. welcome to breakfast with sarah campbell and jon kay. our headlines today... explosion. israel launches a ground operation into lebanon — for the first time in nearly 20 years — saying it's targeting hezbollah positions. hezbollah says its fighters are ready to confront an invasion. the uk government charters a flight to help british nationals leave lebanon — the foreign secretary warns the situation is volatile.
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we cannot anticipate the circumstances and the speed with which we could do that, if things escalate in a major way over the coming hours and days. an independent investigation finds a second post office it system that could have caused shortfalls for subpostmasters and led to accounting errors. the white house says more than 600 people are still missing after hurricane helene hit the united states last week, as north carolina reels from devastating flooding. cheeering. from paul mccartney to cilla black, old marylebone town hall — the choice for many celebrity weddings — marks a century of ceremonies by hosting 100 in a day. good morning. today will be drier for most of us. there will be
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sunshine, particularly in

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