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tv   The Context  BBC News  October 2, 2024 8:00pm-8:31pm BST

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eight israeli soldiers killed today in the fighting in lebanon. killed today in the israel is promising retaliation against iran. joe biden says he does not support a strike on iran's nuclear facilities. we will have all the reaction from the region tonight. and the first edition of the security brief, it could hardly be more timely. mikey kay will be here to give us his analysis of what is unfolding and where it goes next. good evening. the israeli military has expanded its operation in southern lebanon, committing more troops to the invasion and says it has been involved for the first time in close fighting with hezbollah. eight israeli soldiers were killed six in an ambush, two by mortarfar. two by mortarfire. hezbollah claimed it also destroyed three tanks. after last nights attack by iran. the israeli defences were called into action again today, the iron dome taking out
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rockets fired from lebanon. in new york the security countil expressed its alarm and frustation at where things are headed. the secretary general once again calling for restraint. we must never lose sight of this growing conflict is taking a toll on civilians. and we cannot look away from systematic violations of international humanitarian law. these deadly cycle of tit—for—tat violence must stop. time is running out and i thank you. the israeli defence forces said 182 missiles were fired by iran. the military has acknowledged that airbases were hit — the damage was largely to office buildings and maintenance areas within the bases — nothing we are told that would unduly affect the air forces operations. in fact overnight, they were flying more missions over beirut overnight and today residents in twenty villages in southern lebanon
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were told to move out by the israeli forces. here's our middle east correspondent lucy williamson. israel's air force was defending other targets when iran's missiles came in, slipping through defences to hit several airbases, like this one at nevatim. another, narrowly missing an intelligence base in tel aviv. the crater it left, filled with visions of what if. the us said this attack had twice the scope of iran's last bombardment in april. not all the targets hit were military. one landed in this residential suburb of tel aviv, neighbours rushing through repairs before the jewish new year tonight. temporary solutions to the problems of a regional war.
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this 83—year—old's home, one of more than 100 houses damaged here. everybody was scared because there is a blast. it was an enormous blast. and when we get out of the shelter, we saw something not from this world. all the houses where with a glass, no windows, no doors. the impact site, around 100 metres from his front door — another what if. this is the second time in six months that iran has attacked israel directly. actions that were once seen as red lines are now becoming routine. each time, the line between message and miscalculation is paper—thin, and each time, demands a response. israel's prime minister last night promised a response would come.
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translation: iran made a big mistake tonight, - and it will pay for it. the regime in iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to retaliate against our enemies. israel has been crossing red lines of its own, sending these soldiers into lebanon this week — a limited and targeted incursion, it says, to destroy hezbollah tunnels. but another four brigades were called up today and villages in the south of lebanon told to leave their homes and move north. also today, the first israeli casualties, airlifted out of the combat zone. eight killed and others injured in a confrontation with hezbollah fighters, the bbc understands. the risks of old conflicts, weighed against the risks of playing by new rules. lucy williamson, bbc news, israel. 0ur corresponent nick beake
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sent us this update from northern israel a short while ago. it will make this is been the second full day of israel's invasion into southern lebanon invasion into southern lebanon in the first time that the israeli troops have come face—to—face with the fighters of hezbollah. hezbollah has been claiming the ambush some of the israeli troops to some reports of casualties. it wasn't until later in the day that the israel defense force confirmed that it of their soldiers had in fact been killed and they were all in their early 20s and we also heard that several soldiers were injured and some of them were injured and some of them were taken to a hospital nearby by helicopter and you can hear a helicopter at the moment. this is been happening all day and but this reallyjets and helicopters high in the sky above us. the prime minister benjamin netanyahu pay tribute to the fallen soldiers saying they had died in the middle of
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a tough war against iran and its proxies. israel said today they will be sending many more soldiers to this part of northern israel, the border with lebanon is just across there but what we are seeing todayis there but what we are seeing today is israeli casualties in particular going to show that this is a very difficult fight for the israelis. benjamin netanyahu said is an essential one but nonetheless, extremely difficult in the days and weeks to come. live images of the israeli lebanon border agency for the moment, it is pretty calm but we are continuing to watch that. michael is here in the studio and will get his thoughts on what is been an extraordinary 2a hours it will get into that after this break. we'll be back after this. 0k. get into that after this break. we'll be back after this. ok. i am told that we're not going to
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go the break. let us start with their new feature which we call their new feature which we call the security breach. puritans. —— here it is. i mentioned last week, that going forward we are going to bring you, each week, an in depth military briefing, which i hope will provide you some context on the national security decisions that are made in jerusalem and washington. and the man who is going to help us do that is mikey kay. he us a former senior officer in the british military, he flew assault helicopters for 20 years. and he is going to run these briefings as he would do it for the military. we are going to star mikey with the iranians. we are going to start mikey with the iranians. the course of action or coa, that the iranians went for last night, the distances involved, the capability they have — what did you see?
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there is an incredible amount to digest and analyse. are the most important thing to look at first is as you pointed out is the map distance. the distances are not insignificant and if we look at this graphic, we can see the distances that we have between tehran, some of the major cities inside israel, tel aviv and jerusalem looking at 900, maybe five miles from tehran to tel aviv and hundred 70 970 miles. that allows us to assess what type of capabilities that iran has in terms of a missile threat. in the three main ballistic missile systems they pop out as you can see, the former commander, they have a range of 870 miles and as you can always
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see from this distances, they are on the farther outer reaches of their capabilities so it may not be launched from the tehran area but more west to extend that range a little bit and then you have the greater range of about 1200 miles in the question is there is a lot of talk about this. i've seen on twitter that many people thought this was a new missile that iran was using, hypersonic missile but i think we have some video of these mobile lunches that they might�*ve used in pakistan in military, you'd say could be a similar thing military, you'd say could be a similarthing and military, you'd say could be a similar thing and what you have a problem with some of the reporting that you just talked about michelle there's a lot of chatter on social media on news
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reporting as chatter on social media on news re ortin ., chatter on social media on news rehortin ., i, . reporting as a hypersonic missile and _ reporting as a hypersonic missile and gives - reporting as a hypersonic missile and gives a - reporting as a hypersonic- missile and gives a capability of mac five plus and the problem i have for this is james report that the far reaches is just 400 james report that the far reaches isjust 400 km james report that the far reaches is just 400 km about 20 miles. and we go back to the distance of the map and there's something slightly awry there we can see from this footage is you can see that it's mobile and can either be realtor tracked and for me, the only way that this could actually hit israel as if they were deployed movably and to somewhere like syria and if you put that system within the region of damascus, that would give it range to target the main points in israel but that's only if it is deployed. looking at the distances, with that in mind, with the military ops room that you've been in,
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with a be piecing this together and figuring out where some the stuff would become a satellite imagery of some businesses leading the launchers but whether still be some as to whether still be some as to whether there will actually be fired from iran to close in the region? fired from iran to close in the reuion? , fired from iran to close in the re.ion? , ., fired from iran to close in the reuion? ,., fired from iran to close in the re.ion? , ., ., region? does a vacuum of information _ region? does a vacuum of information of _ region? does a vacuum of information of where - region? does a vacuum of| information of where these capabilities have come from but from the analysis that i've been conducting and we have been conducting and we have been discussing today, the liver that could've targeted israel as if it were deployed into syria and if deployed into syria, you have collaboration between asad and the iranian regime. and that is going to implicate syria which will open syria up to potential targeting from israel stop by let's talk about israel plus plus defence system in 182 missiles fired and i said that the top, they've taken down most of the
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missiles they can.— missiles they can. there is the arrow for _ missiles they can. there is the arrow for this _ missiles they can. there is the arrow for this high _ missiles they can. there is the arrow for this high altitude - arrow for this high altitude deception and there is the medium range and the iron dome for the short range rockets coming over the borderfrom hezbollah. coming over the border from hezbollah-— coming over the border from hezbollah. �* , , ., hezbollah. let's start with the outermost _ hezbollah. let's start with the outermost regions. _ hezbollah. let's start with the outermost regions. ballistic . outermost regions. ballistic system that can go out to long range about 2400 km, the error3 is very new what i can do is it can engage targets outside of the earth atmosphere and the arrow three system in the arrow two systems are the new systems that they rely on in nerd to counter a lot of those 182 inbound ballistic missiles from iran. —— in orderto. and that
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has a range of about 190 anything that breaks through the arrow two and three will be targeted by the david's sling. in the iron dome system, that is been in operation since 2011 and it is a 20 47 capability and it is a 20 47 capability and hundred 60 degrees cover. and that is hugely important and it breaks down the three parts and in the tracking radar and you got the actual interception of missiles and all the batteries around ten batteries surrounding israel to give them full cover and they of the sea two system that basically provides software that allows the target tracking radar to target the missile and us thinking about 2.5, if this system is engaging targets of 2.5 miles over open areas
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they'll be quite a shock for a lot of people because of the noise. and the iron dome system is quite phenomenal and as a very high percentage rate of intercept but also, we should not forget that it's part of this different fulfillment, you have two naval warships and the ocean firing missiles as well to try to counter those 182. the cost of these missiles is $1.5 million in the estimate israel spends $850 million on the technology in april alone when the iranians first fired over that first volley of missiles. we talk about this war of attrition, we talked about the distances these missiles are travelling, is the sustainable if there were further repeated attacks in this that feed into the decisions, the strategic military planners like you would be making injerusalem? yes, i think this is a very interesting question and we
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spoke about it at length today and just bringing it up now, the distances again. not insignificant i think the important piece by this analysis is, israel will be looking very closely i would resupply logistical resupply and reloading they have of the arrow two and three in david's sling in the missiles and w make a very close calculated decisions on when they are going to run out. and if i'm a planner injerusalem, what i do not want to do is know that if the resupply system is low in the resupply system is low in the resupply system is low in the resupply will come from people like the united states, what i wouldn't want to do is provoke iran into another 182 ballistic missile attack knowing that would bring the levels down to a point where the iron dome would become vulnerable, not because the system itself but because of the physical resupply.- the physical resupply. very important _ the physical resupply. very important because - the physical resupply. very important because you - the physical resupply. very important because you think about the americans of the moment, supplying pictures
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missiles and they know patriots are involved in this as well and they're supplying and they�* re supplying ukrainians and they're supplying ukrainians of the moment is a lot of pressure on resupply for the americans and are you saying that in benjamin netanyahu talks is very tough game about being repercussions of the time of our choosing, one thing that he will be told in his ear is let's just check with what we've got and what retaliation might look like before we go out and start targeting iran.— before we go out and start targeting iran. going back to the analogy _ targeting iran. going back to the analogy of _ targeting iran. going back to the analogy of strategic - the analogy of strategic planning and suchjerusalem, planning and such jerusalem, you planning and suchjerusalem, you are going to be talking to the us and having a very close conversation on what stockpiles are my resupply is in terms of the global supply chain that means in terms of how patriots contribute to the missile system and collaborating with the arrow two and three and there may be resilience and redundancy in terms of arrow two and three but it is a very important consideration that planners will be taking into account when they take on the
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targeting site.— targeting site. let's talk about the _ targeting site. let's talk about the israeli - targeting site. let's talk about the israeli side, l targeting site. let's talk i about the israeli side, was targeting site. let's talk - about the israeli side, was on the table for them. . it’s the table for them. . it's really interesting - the table for them. . it�*s really interesting point and if we can go to the slide, potential targets that i can see are the nuclear facilities in the enrichment, and this also oil which will damage iran economically but also targets such as air defence systems. and i think one of the huge questions about an israeli response, what is that course of action, it's mostly the m0 cover, the most likely cover will be to put some form of package together involving fixed wing deviations. what we can see here are potential flight paths of what a package would look like. in orderfor
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israel to get a package of fighters which are subtraction of enemy air defence which may be refuel others because obviously it's a significant journey there and back and it could be aircraft such as the river that sucks up electronic information and more sounds on the ground. it is a formidable consideration package to put together and plan and if you look at the flight routes and if you go back to the slide, on the map there, yourfour potential considerations. the route down the south is the longest and would not require any approval or coordination with the country but the most direct route is saudi arabia and may kuwait. in orderfor saudi arabia and route, but you're going to have to have a lot of coordination with the saudis and basically co—ordinate this huge package coming through the air space and come back again and that is and come back again and that is a huge consideration when it
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comes to what the israelis could do in terms of the fixed wing strike. could do in terms of the fixed wing strike-— wing strike. that seven route that goes _ wing strike. that seven route that goes through _ wing strike. that seven route that goes through the - wing strike. that seven route that goes through the gulf. wing strike. that seven routel that goes through the gulf run saudi arabia and into iran, you're talking about a refuelling operation that's very technical and then what? because a lot of these nuclear facilities are deep underground and in mountainous situations, what are the israeli jets, that is an option and we will talk about the debate that is going on around that but if it's really an option, what of those israeli pilots flying into? the cle israeli pilots flying into? the cycle that — israeli pilots flying into? the cycle that they _ israeli pilots flying into? the cycle that they use _ israeli pilots flying into? tue: cycle that they use is israeli pilots flying into? tte: cycle that they use is fighting fixed target track assess and that could be in f 35 stealth fighter and f—15 and f—16 that could have on board a cruise missile that has a range of
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about 250 km. if you look for the israeli defence systems are which have a range of hundred 20 km and that would be a suitable weapon because the fight does not get engaged in the missile engagement zone of israeli air defences and so, all of these things in that cycle will be taking into account in each jet, the cycle will be taking into account in eachjet, the f 35 stealth capabilities that could obviously get a bit is as a reduced radar and f—15, the f 35 is more likely to be used for suppression of enemy air defence and that will take other defence surface systems and then you have assets like the f—15s which will be potentially used for their cruise missiles and stand off to take on whatever targets they have left. penetrators as well and they can penetrate
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bunkers and things that are deep underground.- bunkers and things that are deep underground. some of that will certainly _ deep underground. some of that will certainly go _ deep underground. some of that will certainly go over— deep underground. some of that will certainly go over my - deep underground. some of that will certainly go over my head i will certainly go over my head and some of the analogies but some he does give you an idea that it'sjust, some he does give you an idea that it's just, let's just go to iran, there's an enormous amount of logistical work going on in israel if indeed, retaliation is coming. 0ther targets for israel and hezbollah is under way, difficult for viewers to get an understanding of the typography across the border once you leave israel and heading to lebanon. it is notjust the case of rolling across the border, is it?— case of rolling across the border, is it? ., �* , ., ~ border, is it? no it's not. and if we can _ border, is it? no it's not. and if we can bring _ border, is it? no it's not. and if we can bring up— border, is it? no it's not. and if we can bring up this - border, is it? no it's not. and if we can bring up this will. if we can bring up this will give viewers an indication of the type of topography that you're looking at. looking at the bottom of the picture, that is a town and that has received a lot of heavy fire, rockets from hezbollah and a lot of
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those inhabitants have been displaced and that is a benjamin netanyahu means what he wants to restore peace to israel. if you then go to the next slide, this is an area where we know that the idf armour has been gathering in order to cross into. find armour has been gathering in order to cross into.— order to cross into. and that is the un — order to cross into. and that is the un blue _ order to cross into. and that is the un blue line - order to cross into. and that. is the un blue line demarcation and that is the spotjust over the border where we saw the three tanks that area were. but what ou three tanks that area were. but what you see — three tanks that area were. but what you see is _ three tanks that area were. elli what you see is that hezbollah are in an elevated position as the stinks command. let us not forget the typography shows quite nicely to so difficult it is for is really tanks to navigate that type of training and that's of hill and that is and that's of hill and that is a slope must not forget, this is notjust about hezbollah, there is a lot of action i
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could flood southern lebanon with militia groups all around the region from irg see inside iran and popular mobilisation forces inside iraq, you have the army heavily involved in hezbollah over the past ten years supporting aside, and we have popular mobilisation forces inside iraq and they were significant when it came to the us operations inside iraq. and syria, we have the battle hardened troops who worked with hezbollah and of course, they have the houthis would have been working with them for a long time.- would have been working with them for a long time. when they flooded the _ them for a long time. when they flooded the zone _ them for a long time. when they flooded the zone in _ them for a long time. when they flooded the zone in iraq, - flooded the zone in iraq, the army capability really did come under pressure.—
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under pressure. brilliant question- _ under pressure. brilliant question. the _ under pressure. brilliant question. the iranians i under pressure. brilliant - question. the iranians designed an ied called the fp which is explosive force penetrator and with that effectively is, if we can bring up a slide of an efp looks like it's basically a camera with explosions in the place and it and it melts the copper and turns the copper into a potent projectile in the use of this inside iraq was deadly against us armour and you have these tanks in high ground and the bottlenecks and if you have these militant groups coming in with that experience and they start putting ied in the road that can prove very problematic in israel could get clogged down in that area of southern lebanon quite quickly. truly fascinating _ lebanon quite quickly. truly fascinating and _ lebanon quite quickly. truly fascinating and gives - lebanon quite quickly. truly fascinating and gives an - fascinating and gives an impression that although hezbollah is been subdued, there are lots of threats to there are lots of threats to the israeli military and the
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military effect of how we've done that. we'll do it again soon. thank you very much. we'll be right back after this. hello. well, northern parts of the uk have had plenty of sunshine today, but yet again across england, it's been a cloudy picture with frequent showers. really, the weather has left a lot to be desired, certainly after that wet september. here's the good news if you want some drier and brighter weather — thursday, friday and to an extent into saturday, the weather is looking a little bit better. gap in the clouds at the moment with high pressure building across the uk, and in fact, as we go through the course of this evening, skies will tend to clear across the bulk of the country. the winds are going to be
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light, so that means it is going to turn quite chilly early on thursday morning. in some spots, north or south temperatures could be just a few degrees above freezing, and that's in sheltered areas out of town. some mist and fog in places, too, but in bigger cities and around coastal areas, i think around 6—9 degrees. so, high pressure firmly in charge of the weather on thursday anchored across the uk. that means light winds, prolonged sunshine, scattered fair—weather clouds and this is from early morning onwards right through the course of the day. so, we've got a beautiful thursday on the way, and i think it'll feel pleasant enough. the temperatures will be somewhat below the average for the time of the year, but we could do worse — around 15 degrees in glasgow, 16 expected in the south of the country. now, thursday into friday, that high pressure is going to show signs of slipping away a little bit towards the east, giving way to atlantic weather fronts, and that does spell cloud and at least some rain across ireland and also into western parts of scotland. but the further east and southeast you are, the better the weather will be
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on friday, and i think beautiful weather on the way for east anglia and the southeast. 17 celsius expected in london. further north, i think it'll be a little fresher, maybe 13—15 degrees. so, that's how we end the week — here's a look at the weekend and into next week. low pressure's once again sweeping off the atlantic and it is looking distinctly unsettled in the days ahead. in fact, here we have the tail end of an atlantic hurricane potentially heading our way. it's still a long way off, but basically, it means that there's plenty of wet and windy weather in the forecast in the days ahead. so, here's a look at the weekend — steadily going downhill. and then we've got rain icons pretty much for most of next week, but the temperatures still hovering around the mid—teens. that's it for me. bye— bye.
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hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. israel warns iran will pay for its missile attacks. iran promises any retaliation will meet an even stronger response. first let's get a check on the sport. we will start with the football. liverpooland sport. we will start with the football. liverpool and buyer in munich all in action. the games that kicked off half an
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hour ago, games that kicked off half an hourago, by and games that kicked off half an hour ago, by and munich are at premier side aston villa reprising a 1982 european cup final match. torres had a goal ruled out for offside in the build up. a bit of an escape there for brian munich so far after ba ar. benfica have an early lead. a against atletico madrid. 1—0 to them. leo and the real madrid �*s goal is at the real madrid �*s goal is at the moment and liverpool are one up against bologna. alexis mcallister for the goal for liverpool. looks like benjamin cisco has given them the lead. a big win for atalanta carlos alcaraz came from a set down to beat the world number one in a dramatic open final in beijing ending the italian's 15 match winning streak. the match had to be decided on a tie—break winning seven stunning points in a row to claim victory including that when they are. the spaniards fourth title of the year and his 16th of his career and he
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is now won all three of

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