this is bbc news. the headlines... beirut locals are surveying the damage of an intense wave of strikes israel launched against the lebanese capital overnight. israel has issued a new call for residents to evacuate the area, as it continues to target infrastructure linked to hezbollah. the hamas—run health ministry says at least 2a people were killed and 93 others wounded when israeli air strikes hit a mosque and a school sheltering displaced people in the gaza strip early on sunday. the idf says that over 30 rockets have been fired overnight into israel's northernmost city. the iron dome defence system has blocked some, while others have landed. and anti—war protests are under way as october the 7th approaches. mass gatherings are taking place in capital cities calling for an end to violence. un secretary—general antonio

guterres has called for the immediate and unconditional release of hostages by hamas. now on bbc news, path to the presidency. i actually realised i'm picking up — it is water, i promise you, it is not, you know, 11.1i7am in the morning and i've already hit the wine. although, after the week we've all had, i could well do. hi, ladies, great to see you today. i have to say, i'm joining from the bureau today here in washington, dc, and you are missing an unbelievable array of sweets and cakes, and bits and pieces, because everyone is out travelling at the moment in swing states and all over the place. and there's that great tradition of bringing goodies back for the team, and it's like a sweet shop at the moment. caitriona, i have tried over and over again to convince people to bring back carrots or celery, or something healthy. yeah, good luck with that! it never happens! i actually realised i'm

picking up — it is water, i promise you, it is not, you know, 11.1i7am in the morning and i've already hit the wine. although, after the week we've all had, i could well do. ijust happened to be in a hotel room, and this is literally the only glass they have in the hotel room. i like how you roll, katty, i like how you roll. it's actually vodka — which is what we need to get through this election campaign. you do you. well, welcome to the path to the presidency, everybody. every week, we'll get together to talk about this crazy election and bring you our thoughts from the week that we've all been having — out on the campaign trail, in the bureau with the candy, but always the worst wi—fi. caitriona, well done, you, for soldiering through. if only people realised how long it took us to get you up the internet. the comms in a comms building. yeah, the comms in a comms building. yeah, and i'm actually in new york, where i'm having a very nice time interviewing vera wang and ottolenghi. completely not political, but it's been a very nice little breakfrom politics. oh, fabulous. we are recording this on thursday, october the 3rd —

is that right, is my head right? and so this will be reaching all of you guys on the 4th. and we're in the first week of october, and everybody�*s already talking about october surprises, so i thought that would be a kind of fun place for us to start. i mean, if you look at all the things that are happening both here in the us and around the world — and we don't really know the impact of them, so we can kind of rattle through them — but on my mind, and i'd be interested to see if you thought there were any others, there's obviously the aftermath of hurricane helene, in north carolina — a swing state — and the impact that might have on the election. there's of course the rising tension in the middle east, with the iranian strike on israel — and the impact that might have on the american election. and then there's jack smith unsealing his charges against donald trump in connection with the january sixth case — and the impact that might have on election. usually when you come to october, there is one october surprise, or potentially two.

by the end of the month, we get to halloween, and there's been one or two. but it's hard for the white house, and particularly for the harris campaign, because harris is still in this subservient role, in a sense. i mean, she's the subordinate to the principal, to the president, and she has to kind of followjoe biden�*s lead on a lot of these issues. and i think it'sjust an interesting way that it highlights the things that are happening, some of which america can control more generally, or can't control, and some of which the harris campaign has some control over, and some of which she doesn't, because it'll also depend onjoe biden�*s agenda to some extent. i think we saw that with the hurricane, really, didn't we? i mean, donald trump quick to go to the site of places where people had been worst hit, and criticised kamala harris for not doing the same. whereas you havejoe biden and kamala harris in the administration saying, "well, no, we're not going there because we've been told, �*please don't come because of how much pressure it puts on the people who are trying to still rescue folks out of their houses,

to have a president and vice president come�*." and she has to, as you say, katty, defer to what joe biden wants to do, because he is still the president. and you still also see that very much so with the escalation that we've been obviously following at the bbc, in the middle east. i mean, what we've seen over the past few days has been dramatic, and it doesn't necessarily make it much easier for the harris campaign. if you think about the fact that president biden and his administration have put a lot of — invested — a lot of time, a lot of effort into trying to negotiate some sort of de—escalation, and it has not worked. and, you know, we've seen republicans we've talked to as well say, "this is on the biden—harris administration, they have emboldened iran." you know, we saw iran launch this barrage of missiles towards israel, and the us helped in shooting down some of those missiles. but this will not only be a distraction for the harris campaign, but also one where it's not easy for the biden—harris administration to come out of this with a win. my sense is that it plays into this line that we heard jd vance say in the debate —

and we'll talk about that, as well, in this — which is that, you know, "donald trump consistently made the world more secure." and when you talk to people just empirically — and i'm sure you find this around the country — you know, and you say, "gosh, wow, isn't it a busy year?" and everyone says, "yeah, there'sjust so much chaos, right? there's so much going on in the world." and whatever happens to, for example, gas prices — which have already ticked up a little bit because of what's happening in the middle east just at the moment, and that would be a huge blow to the harris campaign, if gas prices really shot up to $6 again. in dc, i was filling my car up the other day, i saw that it's nearly already $5, which is a lot — $5 a gallon for americans is a lot more than $3. so gas prices are ticking up, and obviously that would have a big impact. but i think, more than the individual impacts that you can pinpoint, it's just this general sense that there was less chaos

in the world that donald trump seems to be able to capitalise on. that he was this strong leader, and that they wouldn't have done this — whether or not that's true — butjust that things were sort of under control, and under america's control in a way that they're not at the moment. and it makes america look a little weak — the fact that they keep asking prime minister netanyahu to do things or not do things, and they keep getting rebuffed, reveals how america doesn't have much leverage, or the white house doesn't have much leverage. and i think all of that helps donald trump. if prices start to tick up again, it will have a massive impact on how people feel. we already know, you know, in these numbers that we've seen in polls that people don't feel good about the economy, even though inflation has been cooling. well, if that trend starts to reverse again, just think about what that could do ahead of the election. all of this, of course — these could be the october surprises. right before october, orjust as october was getting under way, we had the first and only vice presidential debate. and, caitriona, you were actually there,

anchoring our coverage from there. yeah, i'm just back from new york, indeed. but it feels like we're in the home stretch now. we're talking about october surprises, and we've had that debate, and it looks like it will be the last setpiece event. obviously, kamala harris has offered another presidential debate, and donald trump has declined that. and there's been a lot of chat about that vp debate. but it's worth looking at with the benefit of the few clear days that we've had in the meantime. i mean, for me, it's the first time that i've been using words like "friendly, cordial, amicable, bipartisan" in a very long time. you know, in a very long time in us politics since we've been saying that. and the stakes are potentially quite low for a vice presidential debate. i mean, traditionally, it doesn't shift the dial too much in terms of support. you know, as we know, debates ever since that biden and trump one, we can never say never about debates. but there are three rules, aren't there? do no harm to the person at the top of the ticket, show that they made a good decision in picking you, that they have good judgment,

and introduce yourself to the american people. and i think bothjd vance and tim walz ticked all the boxes for those three key goals. there were no red flag, viral moments. they gave competent performances — probably a better performance from jd vance than from tim walz. i think he introduced himself a little bit better to the american people, perhaps, than tim walz did. tim walz mentioned minnesota, i think, more than 20 times — so no doubt as to where he's from anyway, or where he's the governor of. but i do think thatjd vance had a far stronger performance, and i think he had a different goal. but actually, the polls show something a little different, which — i mean, i think i was wrong in my assessment, or i was not reading people's reactions necessarily right, because my assessment was, "oh, my god, this is a bit of a wash—out for tim walz." and yet the polls suggest that he went up in his approval ratings as much asjd vance did, pretty much. i think he had a slow half hour. his first half hour was really bad, his first answer was bad, jd vance�*s was better.

his handling of tiananmen square was bad as well, as you say, katty, i mean, saying "i misspoke" about something that actually was a complete misrepresentation is a problem. but i think, when he got onto those safer questions for him, like immigration, economy, housing, and when he kept repeating, "well, what i've done in minnesota," he felt more confident. and the exchange about democracy and january sixth, and all that, he got quite angry. but what i thought was interesting aboutjd vance was i felt we were seeing "jd vance for president 2028", in that performance. it was about his own campaign for the future. yeah, i think he had a very different goal. i think he was like, you know, whatever the relationship that he and donald trump have, that's not going to change. but even if donald trump wins, he can only be president for one term. so regardless, there'll have to be a new republican candidate four years from now, and i think that's whatjd vance was trying to do. well, if you look at how the harris—walz campaign actually clipped up the elements of the debate that they felt good about, of course, there was that one exchange over the 2020 election. and you saw tim walz say,

you know, "that was a damning non—answer," when jd vance dodged a question about who won the 2020 election. i think they feel like that was the win for them. but overall, you have to say that jd vance landed some really good answers on the economy, on immigration. you know, of course they were both expecting, you know... katty, we talked a bit about preparation for debates like this, they were both expecting to clash on issues, and it seemed like tim walz was perhaps not as prepared for this nice, friendlyjd vance as he could have been. by the way, why not? you know, if you're prepping for a debate and you're his team, i mean, that's one thing i was wondering today, with the reporting that came out saying they were taken by surprise by that. and it does kind of make you wonder — any sort of mistake in a campaign at this stage always makes you question the competency of the campaign staff, right, and the campaign strategy. and rule number one of debate

prep, not that i have ever prepped a vice presidential or a presidential candidate for any debate, so it's easy to say this sitting in my nice hotel room in new york city. i mean, i would assume that any time you prep somebody for a high—stakes debate like that, and let's face it, the only big thing that a vice presidential candidate does on the campaign is this debate, i mean, that's, you know, 80% of what they're there for — is that you should prep for all alternatives. you should have prepped for vance to come out as the attack dog, which he's been, but you also should have prepped for him to come out with a different persona that knows that his negatives are very high, and that people don't like him, and try and be more likeable. i mean, thatjust seems pretty basic. and so, then you start thinking, "oh, my lord, you know, what else are the campaigns not prepping for that they should be prepping for?" and one of the things that, sumi, you and i spoke about is the degree to which democrats after that debate are really... i sense, i'm picking up from the conversations i'm having — and i was texting the whole way through with democratic congresspeople and republican congresspeople as i was watching the debate — but there's quite a lot of anxiety amongst democrats about, are they

getting out enough? is this campaign taking its foot off the gas in the last month, and they're just not doing enough events? and i know that fundraising's been a priority for kamala harris herself, and she's done a lot of that, and they have raised a ton of money. but i think the sense from democratic strategists and congresspeople that i'm speaking to now is they just need to do a lot more of these events. and the other issue that, perhaps there was a surprising exchange, i thought, at the debate was around abortion, and the position that we heard from jd vance. i mean, when have we ever thought we'd hear a republican vice presidential candidate — or any republican for that matter — say, "the american people don't trust us when it comes to abortion, we have to earn their trust back"? and i think that also potentially was one of those moments, katty, that threw tim walz a little bit. and, you know, it was quite an extraordinary thing forjd vance to say. and in the spin room afterwards, on our live

coverage, we had lots of people, the surrogates from all the campaigns coming through to talk to us, and one of those we spoke to was donald trumer, and i asked him about that. this is what he said. do you think people will have been surprised to hearjd vance say that american people don't trust the republican party, when it comes to abortion and reproductive rights? and he said, "we have to earn that trust back." i think that's accurate. i thinkjd vance handled — and that's always a stickyl subject on the republican side, especially in the climate - of today, and he's from ohio, where they had a referendum j that voted 75% in the state — and it's a republican state, i +13 or so — you know, that voted for it. - so, you know, jd vance went into uncomfortable sort - of republican territory, and he handled that. issue and the question - with a response in a far more articulate fashion than most republicans can handle - the easy stuff, for us. that's why i said it - was such a masterclass. i mean, he's able to- acknowledge those things, he's able to talk about that change — and it's not - a sound bite, right? he actually understands these issues. _ so, that was quite

interesting commentary from donald trumer — who, by the way, was absolutely delighted withjd vance�*s performance, as you might imagine, because he told me... they're friends. yes, but he had told he told me in that interview that he had to really push his father to pickjd vance for vice president. and he said, "now i can say to dad, �*i told you so.”' i mean, actually, the one other thing that, in the context of abortion, that's interesting, that's just coming out this week is melania trump's book. and the guardian had an excerpt from that — the book is not out until next week — where she comes out very firmly, i mean, like, notjust, "well, i think women should have a right to choose, but i understand the pro—life position," like, "absolutely, women should always have a right to choose and always have a right to have an abortion." i mean, she goes very far on that spectrum — much further than i imaginejd vance would be happy with, and that many of the evangelicals, you know, conservatives who were keen on overturning roe v wade would be happy with.

so they're kind of... and i wonder whether the trump family and trump campaign are trying to kind of shift, you know, the maga movement a little bit on this particular issue. so, we'll wait to see how the debate all plays out, and if it has any effect at all, which, as we've said, it probably won't. but there will have been people tuning into that in those battleground states. and there's new polling out this week, sumi, you've been looking at about the potential impact of latino voters, again, in some of those critical states. arizona and nevada come to mind. yeah, there was a really interesting poll out by nbc telemundo and cnbc, and they were looking at where latino voters stand right now, as we're just a few weeks away from the election. and the top line from this poll is that vice president harris is leading donald trump with latino voters, but by the lowest amount for democrats in four presidential cycles. so that is actually really, really interesting information. and the reason it matters, of course, is we're talking about a pretty significant piece of the electorate —

latinos at the moment make up around 15% of eligible voters. and, caitriona, katty, i'm sure you see this, you know, statistic pulled out every election cycle, but around every 30 seconds, a hispanic voter turns 18, becoming eligible to vote. so not only an important part of the electorate, but growing very quickly, because it's a young part of the electorate as well. it is always important to say, hispanic voters are not a monolith, obviously — so you do have big differences in generations. if you talk about first generation versus second versus third, as you move further away from the story of immigration, obviously the ties to the culture of origin, if you can call it that, do change and adapt. and then, the communities of origin as well matter, so, you know, voters from, let's say, who have roots in mexico or central america versus venezuela or, as we know, there is that very conservative voting bloc of cubans in florida. that all matters. that being said, what this poll i think showed that was really,

really interesting — and i pulled up the numbers, just because i found it fascinating — it shows that kamala harris and donald trump are evenly splitting the vote among latino men, so each getting around 47%, but she has a 26—point lead among latino women. so that is a really significant gender gap, and it made me think about the inroads that donald trump and his campaign have been making with men. and obviously, you know, there's a part of it that is this image of masculinity and strength. i mean, at the republican national convention, that was very, very clear, that that image was part of the campaign. but also, you know, there is this idea that latino voters, hispanic voters, that they see immigration as their top issue, but the further they move away in generations from that story of immigration, the more other issues become important to them. so, for example, the economy — and we spoke to vivek ramaswamy about some of the areas where he thinks the trump campaign can message really effectively. he said, "look, you had economic growth in the trump campaign, you had wage growth, you had stability, you had lower inflation."

to your point, katty, earlier, "you had no major conflicts that the us was involved in around the world," and that is what matters to voters. and i sat down with chuck rocha, who is a democrat strategist who worked on bernie sanders' 2020 campaign, and he was saying, "look, latino men are the fastest—growing part of the non—college—educated men in the workforce segment" — a long phrase to say that it is important to think about the fact that men in general, if they are tending towards donald trump, latino men are very much part of this. but he said, "look, it is really important in these battleground states that democrats target them with ads about work, about the honour of work, the dignity of work." but i don't know, katty, what your sense is of how pivotal they're going to be in this election. so, there's a really interesting book that came out a few months ago by mike madrid — it's called the latino century. and it charts what you've just

found in this poll, sumi, which is that first—generation hispanics — many of whom came over in the 1960s, who tend to be predominantly spanish—speaking, more spanish—speaking — are more interested in voting democratic. which is why, up until about 2012, until about the 2016 election, really, democrats were convinced that they were about to face this huge, big demographic shift in their favour, because they assumed that hispanics would vote like that first generation of voters who came over in the big wave in the �*60s and �*70s. then what we found is that, i think it's 80% of latino voters are actually us—born, and they are much younger, and they tend to speak primarily english, and they vote as white americans do. now, conservative thinkers and political strategists are thrilled with this, and they say, not only because it means that they're getting more republican—leaning

voters, but also because they say, "look, it shows that you can't dice and slice the population according to race and gender and ethnicity," which is something, obviously that is of interest to conservatives, that they like the idea that we've moved beyond the kind of diversity, equity, and inclusion world where people identify by race. but actually, increasingly, hispanic voters, like white voters, like black voters, identify by class more than anything else. and if donald trump is winning, people in white, working—class — in working—class groups without college degrees, it would make sense that he's also winning hispanic voters who are working—class and don't have college degrees. so, that's the dividing line, is education now, and rural city — but rural—city is often a reflection of education, rather than, i think, the race issue. and we see that with all ethnic communities, really, don't we? like the new arrivals have those issues around immigration, and the longer you're here, you tend to move from being a democrat to a republican. but the point you were

mentioning there, sumi, earlier about work and using that as a sort of target point is one that's been said to me, as well, by people within both parties, that they feel that that's an area to target men and women, and younger voters, and particularly in somewhere like nevada, where you have, you know, so many people employed in the service industry, in the hospitality industry, around las vegas who are not on good wages, who want to be on better wages. the issue of being able to afford a home, afford rent is a big deal in nevada, in arizona. and that's what's interesting, i think about, you know, donald trump's idea to have no tax on tips — which kamala harris is now saying, as well — which some economists have said is not actually workable, you can't not tax part of the earnings of part of the population. but it's interesting that they're kind of identifying something really tangible like that. that people who do — a big part of their take—home pay is their tips, and not

paying tax on that would be a sizeable benefit. and you were mentioning mike madrid, katty, i should say that chuck rocha and mike madrid have this great podcast on the latino vote that i can absolutely recommend listening to — if i'm allowed to plug... they'll be delighted with that plug. always good to give people tips on what to read and listen to. but he filled out that thought a little bit more when he was telling me about, you know, the fact that he thinks there are so many ads that the democrats are running to latino women about abortion. the idea of work is not just, you know, these... there are many hispanic men who are in the construction sector — put together an ad that's not just about the guy putting on his hard hat going to work, but also the man putting a suit on and going to the office, because the latino experience in the us spans those generations, spans class. and that is something that he thinks would help democrats win over some of those voters. yeah, i mean, ithink one otherjust broader point on what i thought what was interesting in that polling, sumi, that you were looking at was, there's a shift going on, a kind of quite important, seismic shift going on in the country where america

is becoming just generally much more conservative is becoming just generally much more conservative about immigration. and the shifts of numbers of people who think that immigrants represent a good thing for the united states is declining, at the same time that the number of people who think you should really enforce border security, both democrats and republicans, is growing. and i think it kind of coincides with a moment where america is also looking, flirting with isolationism in a way, and you've got this very interesting poll that came out of the chicago council recently, showing that, for the first time since they ever did their polling, a majority of americans don't think that america should lead the world and be engaged in the world. and i think those two things kind of go together as a slight kind of isolationism when it comes to immigration, the value of immigration, even amongst hispanic voters to the country, and this sense that america doesn't need to be as engaged in the world as it has been since the second world war.

and it's a kind of slightly conservative retreating in the country — which obviously is something that donald trump can tap into. well, we will see what is tapped into and otherwise over the course of the next week. as i say, we're in the home straight now, we'rejust approaching the one month to d—day, although... back to my vodka. yeah, i will note that i was looking at statistics there, that almost 900,000 people have already voted already. so every day is polling day from here on out. but great to chat to you both, as always, and i will see you next week. goodbye. see you then. bye, guys. hello. whilst yesterday brought us some sunshine and temperatures as high as 18 degrees for a few spots, today is looking a little bit cloudier for the rest of today. we've got quite a bit of cloud and some showery rain. there will be some blue skies,

some brighter spells just breaking through that cloud at times, especially towards the east. further west, it's low pressure that's dominating our weather. so that's moving in from the atlantic. and it's pushing these couple of weather fronts slowly northwards and eastwards. so, quite a lot of cloud for most areas. for the rest of the day, i think the heaviest of the rain will be for the south—west of england, wales perhaps northern ireland, into the midlands could be some heavy bursts too. some brighter spells for the north east of scotland, perhaps eastern england as well, and temperatures ranging between about 13 to 17 degrees. some of these showers into the evening hours could bring the odd rumble of thunder, then the cloud and showery rain pushes northwards and eastwards overnight. tonight, clearerskies moving in from the south but still some heavy showers. perhaps the odd rumble of thunder as well. not going to be a particularly cold night, with temperatures holding up between eight to 12 degrees. frost—free certainly to start the new working week, but monday still quite an unsettled sort of day. we've got a band of cloud sitting across parts of scotland with outbreaks of rain further south, sunny spells developing but some heavy showers again, potentially some thunderstorms pushing in from the south—west later in the day. but brighter skies and we've got out there today and highs

around 13 to perhaps 19, even 20 degrees. still quite mild in the south—east. tuesday, another unsettled sort of day. so again, we've got some outbreaks of rain across northern parts of the uk. sunshine and showers towards the south, some of them on the heavy side, and temperatures still mild for the time of year — around 18, possibly 19, in the south, but starting to turn a little bit colder across parts of scotland. now, into the middle of the week, let's take a look at this system. this is going to be the remnants of ex—hurricane kirk moving in, probably pushing down towards france where we'll see some really wet and windy weather. could be a bit further north though, so keep an eye on the forecast. i think for us we're looking at another showery sort of day on wednesday. quite breezy at times and the colder air starting to push in, so only around ten degrees for lerwick and stornoway, for instance, but still 15 or 16 for southern england in those sunny spells. but that colder air will continue its progress further south during the latter part of next week. so you can see the blue colours returning here, pushing away that mild air. so, the next few days certainly looking unsettled. showery rain for many of us. quite breezy at times, and then

the temperatures tend to slip away as we look towards the end of this coming week. bye for now.

live from israel. this is bbc news. we are live from the kibbutz of mir oz, a few hours from the nir oz, a few hours from the gaza border. one of the many kibbutz in towns attacked by hamas in the early hours of october seven years ago. later we would be speaking to some in the community about those horrific events. but first... israel's bombardment of lebanon continues, massive explosions rocking the capital through the night and into this morning. smoke hangs over the beirut skyline — as lebanese officials say 23 people were killed in israeli strikes saturday. hezbollah has been firing more rockets into israel — the iron dome defence system has blocked some, while others have landed in the country's north.

across the world, calls for the release