this is bbc news, the headlines israel carries out fresh strikes on a beirut suburb — the attacks come after israel issued new evacuation orders in southern lebanon this comes as israel steps up its offensives against hezbollah in lebanon and hamas in gaza, on the eve of the october 7th anniversary. thousands of people gather across the world to call for the return of the 101 hostages still being held in gaza. events have been held in paris, london and glasgow, among others. and — prime minister keir starmer�*s top adviser, sue gray, resigns from her position as downing street chief of staff. she says she "risked becoming a distraction" after being caught up in rows over pay.

now on bbc news. newscast. today, we're going to talk about a lot about the middle east. and we talked about it a little bit yesterday. but obviously it's one huge big dominant news story this weekend, notjust because it's the anniversary of the terrible october the 7th attacks, but also because overnight lots of things have been hotting up still further with more strikes on the lebanese capital, beirut. yes. said to be the largest so far. so we'll get to that. and also ask, when this politics comes home, how will it influence this government, all on this sunday episode of newscast. newscast. newscast from the bbc. hello, it's laura in the studio. and paddy in the studio. and nick in the studio. thank heavens you're here because there's this giant middle east crisis, and it's clearly going

to have a big defining impact on this new labour government. well, indeed. and it already has, because, as laura was saying on her show this morning, you know, you can directly say that labour lost five constituencies and keir starmer's majority were slashed by candidates standing on a pro—palestinian pro—gaza ticket. so in camden, in his own constituency. yeah. so they absolutely know the impact of it. before we get into that, which is fascinating. and the prime minister himself has been warning publicly in the papers this morning about the risk of tensions building here at home willjust bring people up to date with what's actually happened overnight. so israel carried out several strikes on the southern suburbs of beirut. our correspondent there said it's the worst night of attacks so far. there was a huge fireball. we showed some of the extraordinary images on the programme this morning over the skyline of beirut. and the israeli military had warned people in the southern suburbs to get out, which is, you know, it's something they do. they tell people, you

know, it's essentially an attack is coming. but that attack seems to have been very serious. the idf, the israeli defence force says 30 rockets fired by hezbollah, seen as our government by a terror group, fell in northern israel. but benjamin netanyahu, the israeli prime minister, said no country in the world would accept an attack on its cities and citizens. israel will not accept it either. israel has the duty and the right to defend itself and respond to these attacks, and it will do so. so we're in this moment of holding our breath, wondering what israel is going to do in retaliation to iran. and then how iran will then respond to the retaliation. and on our program, we heard from the head of the un refugee agency. he's called filippo grandi. he's actually in beirut. he says it is an unfolding catastrophe for civilians, and many of them are now, many lebanese are now sleeping

on the street in beirut, which is being shelled. and correspondents from the bbc have said that the strikes on beirut last night were the heaviest yet. so that's the situation on which you're dealing with your guests. on bbc one and ours, we had the former head of the navy, alan west, on saying, you've got to act to prescribe the iranian revolutionary guards. now, if i can start with the nick element and you, what is the the challenge for the prime minister? he's not really influential in the in the middle east except by being on the security council, the uk being on the security council. is he? i mean, let's not overplay the role of the uk. in a sense the influential players are the blocs. so it's the united states, it's the gulf arab states. and to a certain extent it's the european union. so the uk on its own is not a player, but it has huge implications for keir starmer in this country in terms of, as laura was saying, those five constituencies where labour lost mps as a direct result of people standing on a pro—palestinian ticket. but also the big challenge for keir starmer is that if the conflict between israel and iran escalates, then what role does the uk play?

and on your show, laura, you had peter kyle, who's the digital secretary who doesn't have a direct role in this, but he's very, very close to keir starmer. so he will know his thinking. peter kyle was being incredibly diplomatic. but i think you'll find that the uk position is this, though they can't quite spell it out, when israel is attacked by iran, as it was the other day and as it was in april, the uk will help israel defend itself. shoot down missiles. yeah. or provide intelligence and reconnaissance to do so because of our capabilities in cyprus, which is so close. if the conflict between israel and iran moves to the next level, and the next level is that israel attacks iran's oil capability or attempts to attack iran's nuclear capability, then i think

you would probably find at that point, the uk would not be involved. and i think that's very much what he was trying to give the impression of this morning, even though as a cabinet minister he was not that surprisingly, going to go into the details of any operational decisions. but really it is a question of principle, isn't it? it's one thing to help israel with defence when people are coming after them. it's another thing to help them carry out an attack and potentially an attack with very far reaching consequences. and this was how peter kyle tried to walk that line. when we asked him directly this morning if the uk military could ever, in any way, in any way at all, be involved in an attack on iran. now, the uk has helped israel on some of the occasions when it has defended itself from iranian missiles. but would you rule out the uk military being involved in any way in any attacks on iran? way in any attacks on iran? these are operational these are operational decisions that must be taken. decisions that must be taken. no, no, no. and the prime minister, no, no, no. these are a question these are a question of principle. of principle.

these are operational these are operational decisions that will be taken decisions that will be taken by the defence secretary by the defence secretary and the prime minister, and also the foreign secretary. these are delicate negotiations, delicate situations. britain will do what it needs to do to support our allies in a time of need. but it is very clear from what we have said publicly that britain will use all of its influence, all of the tools we have at our disposal to move towards a swift diplomatic solution based on a ceasefire as quickly as possible. now we're working very closely with our international allies. speaking to people about this over the last few days, about what the uk could do. and you're absolutely right, nick. say the uk's role is limited given the size of the country and our diplomatic power. but there are specific things that the uk can do that

so theoretically it was suggested to me, somebody who used to do this kind ofjob, a uk sort of emissary, could go and speak to the iranians in a way that it's impossible for the united states to do, because... they're on the ground. because they're on the ground. and here's another example. they said to me that the qataris were the ones who were negotiating to try to get the israeli hostages out with hamas. and the qatari chief negotiator was in london when the israeli hostage families were also in london, and the uk was able to get them to meet. and that was not a meeting that would have been possible anywhere else. so yes, the uk's role is limited, for sure, but there are specific little sort of points of purchase. yeah, there are specific, often practical points where the uk's own diplomatic sort of patchwork, if you like, allows us to play roles that could actually be very significant and to make things happen. and david lammy, for example, has been speaking to the iranian foreign minister from time to time,

which is not a conversation that the american secretary of state, antony blinken, would be able to have in the same way. so there is, you know, there's just these little nooks and crannies where the uk actually can be really significant. quietly, we have that footprint. i remember when tony blair went to the united states in the wake of 9/11, and i think it was on that flight to the united states that he had a phone call with the president of iran, which was seen as a hugely significant breakthrough. and thenjack straw, who was the foreign secretary, actually went to tehran. so you're absolutely right. so you're absolutely right. there is that sort there is that sort of footprint. of footprint. i mean, jack straw is being i mean, jack straw is being talked about as somebody talked about as somebody who if we wanted to sort remember what her fancy... who if we wanted to sort of step up our dialogue of step up our dialogue with iran, he would be the guy. with iran, he would be the guy. oh, somebody mentioned oh, somebody mentioned cathy ashton to me as well, cathy ashton to me as well, who was the former, i can't who was the former, i can't

remember what her fancy... foreign policy supremo for the european union, and she was directly involved in the negotiations over the iranian nuclear program, because the eu is a partner in that. and she was the interlocutor. so cathy ashton, very significant. but also it looks a lot from the commentary and all the sundays, as though the israeli prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, has in many ways become detached from the international pressure that used to be able to influence his actions because of four weeks to go to the us presidential election, because of the fact that he's banned the secretary general of the united nations from visiting israel. he's persona non grata. the situation is very unstable. before we got to this weekend, because, say, the commentators i've been reading today, he's emboldened to act

stop this when we have taken out these terror groups, as described by many governments. she was crystal clear about this, that this ends when israel ends hamas and hezbollah. and then, on the other hand, we spoke to somebody from iran. very unusual. we were pleased to speak to the former vice president of iran this morning. and she essentially pretty much justified what iran did to israel on october the 7th. her position was also completely entrenched. and there's a very important difference between those two countries. we were talking about it yesterday. israel is a democracy. iran is not a democracy. they lock up political prisoners. many people in iran, as we talked about yesterday, are deeply unhappy with what the regime has done. but it was so striking how, in different ways, both of those countries we saw this morning are incredibly entrenched.

but it's interesting when we said we talk about the impact of the uk. i was interested this morning when keir starmer wrote this piece, saying he's worried about the effect on the communities here and how different communities react and process what's happening in the middle east. well, deep concerns of a rise in anti—semitism, deep concerns of a rise in islamophobia. very, very deep concerns about what might happen around about the first anniversary of those terrible attacks on the 7th october. so, yes, they are concerned. but on benjamin netanyahu, i think it's important to say that the israeli prime minister for the last 30 years has been saying that israel's number one adversary is iran because of what they say are the iranian proxies, which are hezbollah to the north, and they would say hamas to the south. and he says that there is going to come a point, he would say, where israel has to seriously confront the iranian regime and all the language from benjamin netanyahu in recent days is that we might

be reaching that moment now. and there is a very, very strong school of thought in israel that's saying that says that now is the moment because hezbollah has been weakened. but interestingly, laura, on your show, malcolm rifkind, the former foreign secretary, says that israel would not be able to step up the attacks to that next level without the say so of the united states so of the united states because they would need very, because they would need very, very serious weapons very serious weapons supplied by the united supplied by the united states to do that. states to do that. and interestingly, it's the two things. and interestingly, it's the two things. do they go after the iranian do they go after the iranian oil fields or do they go oil fields or do they go after the nuclear facilities? after the nuclear facilities? joe biden in the week said joe biden in the week said attacking oil facilities attacking oil facilities is under discussion. is under discussion. nuclear — out of the picture. including in the united states, nuclear — out of the picture. so it may well be that so it may well be that the united states would give the united states would give the green light to attacks the green light to attacks on iranian oil fields. on iranian oil fields. even talking in that way meant even talking in that way meant that global oil prices rose that global oil prices rose at once and a strike on iranian at once and a strike on iranian

oil fields would put oil prices oil fields would put oil prices up all around the world, up all around the world, including in the united states, with weeks to go, including here in the uk. and so these steps, the next steps by israel, the response by iran is what's grouping all the international

and it's one of the things, actually, that i think has been notable in this conflict throughout is the absolute megaphone... ..i'm not going to say megaphone diplomacy, because it's not been megaphone diplomacy at all. it's been megaphone threats on all sides. it's been very, very public. the sort of idea that there would be element of surprise in terms of a war. you know, it's been very public. we will do this, we will do that. and that doesn't always happen. no. that's right. and benjamin netanyahu... kind of curious. in a way. ...don't forget his brother lost his life in the entebbe raid. his father was a historian ofjewish history. benjamin netanyahu's view is that you don't win through a defensive posture. so israel has had success with its iron dome defensive system of protecting tel aviv when it's under attack from hezbollah. they've had success in protecting israel iran has been launching nuclear. sorry. let me say that again.

they've had success when iran has launched ballistic missiles at israel. but the netanyahu view is that that's a defensive posture which is not sustainable. the only way you succeed is going on an offensive posture against the iranian regime. that is the netanyahu view. and although six months ago and through much of this year, he's been incredibly unpopular, actually, in recent weeks, that oil tanker seems to have been turning. so the political incentive for him may not be there right now to listen to allies saying, "please be calm, please restrain yourselves." please do something which actually western allies would accept and understand, which might be limited. targeting of iranian military strikes, military sites, for example. it doesn't look like that is actually what is on the table. and seems to be saying it's the next stage. yeah. and so this article by keir starmer. yeah. something we spoke about a lot more in the pre—election phase was the impact on our communities plural? here in the united kingdom and you were you were reminding me that his own majority in his own constituency was slashed because of ceasefire calls from the communities in his own constituency. his article today, you can

summarise it better than me, is saying we need a ceasefire because on our own streets, we're going to see more polarisation from escalation in the middle east. well, fundamentally, keir starmer wants to see a ceasefire because he believes as peter kyle was telling laura, that the only way you can resolve this is through diplomacy and the end settlement needs to be a two state solution with a secure state of israel and a viable state of palestine. and he thinks that's literally, globally, ihe only way you can do it is through diplomacy. that's what he thinks at a global level. but obviously, as you say, paddy, that ties in at a domestic level. domestically, instability in the middle east produces an element of instability on our streets here and on our communities, a rise in anti—semitism, a rise in islamophobia. and that worries

the prime minister. and we've already seen that last year escalating. and if we saw the protests yesterday, there were more protests. and i'm sure most people would say the vast majority of people who were at the marches yesterday were marching in favour of peace. they were marching to show solidarity with people who are suffering. but there were, we've all seen the images, there were some arrests. we heard peter kyle this morning on the on tv saying people would feel the force of the law. there were people at those protests carrying placards saying "i love hezbollah", which this country considers to be a terror group that has been killing people for many, many years. and so we're seeing on our streets a range of views that many people,

some of them find completely unacceptable. and there has in the last year has already been a rise in anti—semitism. there has, in the last year already been a rise in islamophobia. and it's clear that the prime minister is worried about that, and notjust because of the political impact on his own party. you know, we had zarah sultana on this morning, who was a labour mp, was booted out because she voted against a domestic policy. but there's a strong strand on the left of the labour party who have much stronger views than keir starmer does about the need to stand up for palestinians, as well as being an ally for israel. so this is sensitive for him for lots of reasons. and you've got to think of the police here about when is something written on a placard an arrestable offence? and what would the court say about what's on a placard? that's extraordinary for newscasters and me as a journalist to think about — at what point is something so offensive as written down that you break the law? now, did you ask peter kyle about what policy can be made

around what's on a placard? he said very clearly that showing support for a proscribed group is a crime, and the government expects people to feel the full force of the law. yesterday in the protests, there was a lot of peaceful protest, but there were people who were carrying signs as the one that you just described. that is a criminal act. supporting a proscribed terrorist organisation such as hezbollah is a criminal act. we, the home secretary, the prime minister, said very clearly yesterday that the police have our full support should they take action against people carrying signs like that. and the role of the police is to keep the peace. so you see a banner like that, which is for a proscribed organisation, that is an arrestable offence to do that. but the police have to assess what is the best way we can help the police. do we go in and take it down and potentially have a confrontation, or do we just let it go, video it and come back to it later? that's interesting because the met, particularly the met, have very often been criticised for taking that kind of stand back approach, allowing things to happen, which as you say, there is, you know, there's a strategy behind that. sometimes it's you, you don't want to turn something into a massive rammy and a big riot where there might be disorder or violence, or people get hurt. andrew mitchell, the shadow

foreign secretary, who was with us this morning. we talked to him all about the middle east. but i also asked him about robertjenrick, who's vying to be the next tory leader, who claims that the uk aid budget is bloated. if only it was bloated. we've seen an enormous amount of the aid budget going to pay for the first year of asylum seekers in britain. that's absolutely within the rules, but it's an enormous amount of money, and jeremy hunt was persuaded to provide additional money to compensate for that. one of the key focuses at the upcoming budget is whether rachel reeves will provide a similar amount, because if she doesn't, then the effect on the lives of hundreds of thousands of children in the poorest parts of the world will be very bleak indeed. why do you think the foreign aid budget has become part of the tory leadership contest? well, obviously the point that robertjenrick was making was he wanted to bolster defence spending and clearly identified the overseas aid budget as sort of an area that could help do that. i mean, the reason why andrew mitchell feels so strongly about this, he was david cameron's first international defence

secretary, and it was a big thing when david cameron, as leader of the opposition, said the conservatives will put in law the un target of spending 0.7% of what is known as gross national income on aid — that was put in law. andrew mitchell implemented that. and then you'll famously remember that i think coming out of the pandemic, rishi sunak as chancellor took that 0.7 down to 0.5. and then andrew mitchell towards the end of this government came in as the development minister. by then it had been downgraded out of the cabinet to basically be the number two slot in the foreign office and was in charge of development, but not on 0.7%, but on 0.5. so andrew mitchell feels very, very strongly that that budget has been reduced and a big chunk of it has been used completely within the law to pay for asylum seekers, accommodation and all that in this country within the law. but he feels strongly about that. so clearly andrew mitchell wanted to make very clear to you that he thinks that robertjenrick is wrong to say that a budget that has been substantially cut is bloated. and final thought before we close the next round of voting in the tory leadership

is nearly upon us this week. mps will whittle down the four to three and then to two and then to two, and andrew mitchell told us this morning he would be voting for tom tugendhat, who is seen as being on the kind of soft left of the tory party, because of course, every party has their own spectrum. so he said he'd be voting for him to keep him in, which isn't the same as saying he wants him to be the leader. what do you think will happen? who will be who will be knocked out, do you think? well, the tory conference actually turned out to be a really important moment for making an assessment of the candidates. and if you had to say to me, you can only say, nick, what was the one thing that happened there that people didn't anticipate? well, the one thing that happened there that we didn't quite see was an absolutely standout speech byjames cleverly, who is currently in joint last place with tom tugendhat.

so the assumption, but this might be wrong, is that james cleverly now has an enormous amount of momentum and that tom tugendhat — perfectly decent speech — but not exactly star appeal on the stage, that he will struggle and we'll see where it goes from there. ok, so you're punting and it's no more than a punt, but in a very informed punt, as the political editor of newsnight, my esteemed colleague, your punt, and i think it would be my punt too. so solidarity together is probably that tom tugendhat slips out and the final three is robertjenrick, kemi badenoch and james cleverly. however, on this podcast we're always happy to be wrong and to fess up when we do. we've done a bit of that lately, so we'll see what happens. the vote is on... ..tuesday and wednesday. but you say to me, am i allowed to say two other things? of course you are. it's like two other things. it would be that kemi badenoch and robertjenrick had difficult moments at the conference. kemi badenoch, when she gave the impression that she was questioning the level of maternity pay, and robert

jenrick when he said that special forces are killing rather than capturing on the ground as a result of human rights laws. so who knows, maybe it will be tom tugendhat, james cleverly and one of kemi badenoch or robertjenrick. but who knows? we will see. tory mps are always described as the most duplicitous electorate in the world. in other words, they all lie to each other about who they're going to back and then just look at the numbers. so thank you very much for listening to this episode. join adam next week. goodbye. newscast. newscast from the bbc. hello there. good evening. a very messy and unsettled picture weather—wise as we head through the next few days. but it was a pretty start earlier on this morning. lots of red skies as captured by our weather watchers. and of course, the heaviest downpours today were out towards the west, some of the showers pushing further eastwards at times. not as much sunshine as we saw yesterday, but still the chance of some more bright and sunny spells as we go through the next few days, accompanied by some rather blustery showers.

brisk southerly winds so the air is mild, warm for the time of year, even. and it's unsettled because low pressure is the dominant force. it's out towards the west of ireland. of course, all of these bands of rain showers swirling around it that sets the scene. for the rest of tonight there will be further bands of rain just gradually pushing northwards and eastwards, but some long clear spells across northern areas of england and through the southern half of the uk as we head towards dawn tomorrow. here, temperatures could potentially drop back into high single figures. otherwise a mild start, double figures pretty much across the board. now, tomorrow, the low pressure remains out towards the west. again, there will be furthershowers, longer spells of rain at times. it's quite a cloudy picture across scotland, for example, and there will be rain on and off here throughout the day. the early rain clears away

from northern ireland, moves into north—west england, and there could be some heavy, possibly thundery, downpours across south—west england into southern wales as we head through the afternoon. but you could catch a shower almost anywhere. a little less frequent out towards the east. some sunny spells and the best of the sunshine. temperatures will peak 16—19 celsius. that's above the seasonal average. now, the low pressure sinks a little further southwards as we head through tuesday, so some of the focus of the heaviest downpours could be across the southern half of the uk. there'll be quite frequent showers here, but again some bright and some sunny spells in between. another band of rain just pushes northwards into scotland. again, there will be quite a lot of cloud here, but once again in the best of the sunshine, it will feel warm for the time of year. temperatures generally 14—18 celsius. now, wednesday's weather needs watching. this deep area of low pressure contains the remnants of hurricane kirk, and at the moment, we think that the worst of the weather will be across northern france, moving into the low countries, heavy rain and strong winds. but some of that rain could move into kent, perhaps. we're likely to see some very blustery winds down

the north sea facing coasts as that low pulls away, and then it turns a lot colder. bye— bye.

live from washington, this is bbc news. furtherstrikes live from washington, this is bbc news. further strikes in beirut after israeli forces issue new evacuation orders for parts of southern lebanon. it's as if zouma continues its offensives in lebanon and gaza. —— israel continues its offensives, almost one year on from the attacks by hamas. and in the uk keir starmer's chief of staff resigns from the post, sue gray says she risked becoming a distraction. good to have you with us. we begin in the middle east where there are developments on several fronts. more israeli strikes have been reported in beirut after israel issued further evacuation orders in parts of southern lebanon. this footage of

a huge explosion is from just the last couple of hours and these