a day that shook the world — one year on from the hamas attack on israel, we look at the global impact, political and economic. and amid escalating conflict, oil prices remain volatile. last week, crude saw the biggest gains since russia invaded ukraine. live from london, this is business today. i'm ben thompson. it's the october 7, exactly one year since the attack by hamas on israel that killed more than 1,200 israelis and sparked a military response that's left more than 40,000 dead in gaza and beyond. israel is marking the day with a series of commemorations. in the last hour, the day has begun with a ceremony at the site of the nova music festival close to the gaza border, where the first attacks

by hamas gunmen took place just before 6:30 local time. more than 300 young people attending the festival were killed, others were taken hostage. it has been called "israel's 9/11" by some, and like the attack on the world trade center, it's had massive repercussions around the world in both politics and economics. michelle fleury has more on the global impact one year on. the middle east conflict could add to the risks already facing the global economy. the escalation comes at a time of uncertainty around the upcoming us election and as china tries to stabilise its struggling economy. economists warn the war could push up inflation if trade routes are disrupted, causing the cost of oil and shipping to rise. a bigger concern is whether any escalation could rock the straits of hormuz, a major shipping channel. 0ne straits of hormuz, a major shipping channel. one third of oil tanker traffic and a fifth of lng and gas passes through

there. the oil markets are already reacting. the price of brent crudejumped 5% already reacting. the price of brent crude jumped 5% last thursday after president biden said the us was discussing with israel striking iran �*s oil industry. iran is the seventh largest oil producer in the world. for now, commodity prices remain below where they were last year but officials around the world are paying close attention. the biggest economic impact is being felt within the region itself. in israel, the war has resulted in a drop in investment undergrowth while in gaza, the constant bombing since hamas attacked israel on october seven has had a devastating impact on its economy. gdp has fallen nearly 90% in the first half of this year, according to the international monetary fund. the imf has warned the war could have significant ramifications for the global economy and it plans to update its forecast for all countries later this month when the

global lender and world bank hold their annual meetings in washington. as we heard from michelle, the price of oil surged on thursday when president biden was asked if he would support an attack by israel on iran's oil industry, and he gave an answer which rattled oil markets. do you support israel striking iran's oilfacilities, sir? we're discussing that. i think that would be a little... anyway. that was thursday. well, by friday evening, the president was trying to calm those concerns. in a white house press briefing, he said he was discouraging israel from targeting iran's oil facilities. look, the israelis have not concluded how or what they are going to do in terms of a strike. that is under discussion. i think if i were in their shoes i would be thinking about other alternatives than striking oilfields. , . alternatives than striking

oilfields.— alternatives than striking oilfields. , ., ., ., oilfields. lets have a look at where we — oilfields. lets have a look at where we are _ oilfields. lets have a look at where we are right - oilfields. lets have a look at where we are right now. - oilfields. lets have a look atj where we are right now. the oilfields. lets have a look at. where we are right now. the oil price has stabilised somewhat. i will show you the numbers right now. remember, it has been consistently falling, not least at the moment because of a slowdown in china. there was nervousness in recent days over any disruption to supply but crucially, being able to get that supply out around the world to where it is needed so let's get the latest with our correspondent in singapore. the cost down about one third of a percentage point so far. markets really do remain on edge about what way this conflict could escalate and the impact it could have on supply. was all that big jump _ have on supply. was all that big jump last _ have on supply. was all that big jump last week - have on supply. was all that big jump last week over - have on supply. was all thatl big jump last week over fears of a regionwide war in the middle east and as he said this morning, they have bared some gains because of what is known

as profit—taking but many analysts believe the oil market will continue to face upside pressure because of fears of israel's retaliation response to 0rion �*s and geopolitical tensions playing a role in shaping the market trend. in terms of the impact on oil supply, terms of the impact on oil supply, analysts say it will be relatively small because if you remember until very recently, oil prices were actually falling because there is too much supply and demand has been falling. also, many still don't think that a direct attack on iran �*s oilfacilities think that a direct attack on iran �*s oil facilities is a likely scenario because of course, it would upset israel's international partners and even if that were to happen, opec, the producer group, has enough spare oil capacity to compensate for full loss of iranian supply. the impact on oil supply would only emerge if iran, for example, retaliates by hitting its golf neighbours. experts don't think that scenario is likely at this

point. oil prices are still well below where they were, for example, just after russia invaded ukraine when we saw that brent crude oil prices rise above 110.— that brent crude oil prices rise above 110. good to talk to ou and rise above 110. good to talk to you and keep _ rise above 110. good to talk to you and keep across _ rise above 110. good to talk to you and keep across that - rise above 110. good to talk to you and keep across that for l you and keep across that for us. we will be back with you later. the images you are looking out on the screen, just to remind you if you are joining us on bbc news, this is the first of a number of memorials and commemorations and ceremonies that will take place throughout the day. this first one marking one year on from the events of october seven of last year, when gunmen stormed into israel. those assaults killing around 1200 people, 251 people were taken hostage. it all began to unfold at the nova music festival. this is where the first commemoration of the day is taking place. 6:30am in the morning local time is when the party—goers who were enjoying a holiday weekend realised

something wasn't right when rocket started to be fired overhead and a little later, gunmen arrived at the site, indiscriminately killing people who were attending the music festival. of course, since then, 42,000 people have been killed in gaza in the conflict that has unfolded. right now, a further escalation of the conflict on israel's northern border with lebanon. let's talk about some of the global implications. dr carole nakhle is chief executive of the global energy consultancy crystol energy, based here in london. good to have you with us. our corresponded was just talking about some of the global implications of what is played out and that conflict once again in the region does threaten stability when it comes to things like oil prices and i know it is hard to make those parallels and connections but it is a really significant escalation and yet so far, oil prices remain pretty calm. explain why we haven't seen the spike we might expect. we

explain why we haven't seen the spike we might expect.- spike we might expect. we did see a spike _ spike we might expect. we did see a spike of— spike we might expect. we did see a spike of almost - spike we might expect. we did see a spike of almost 1096 - see a spike of almost 10% rising in a week of oil prices so we did see that spike but it is limited. because the middle east remains the largest oil exporting region in the world so of course, anything that happens there on the political front and geopolitical front will generate fear across the market and that is exactly what we're seeing today. this jump in prices is a reflection of what we call it the geopolitical risk premium. it is not translated into supply disruptions yet and that is why we did not see the massive increase of 110, 120. there has not been any supply disruptions but we are concerned about further escalation that could lead to supply disruptions and this is where we might see prices getting higher. the reason why the prices are where they are today is there is also a positive side to this unfortunate development in the region is that the market is

now tied. there is plenty of supply coming from outside opec, plus a by the united states and the market from china is not going strongly because of the chinese economic problems. on the balance, the oil market is worried but not spooked. oil market is worried but not sooked. . , oil market is worried but not smoked-— oil market is worried but not sooked. ., , ., spooked. that is the important oint spooked. that is the important point here- _ spooked. that is the important point here. previously - spooked. that is the important point here. previously in - point here. previously in previous conflicts, our reliance on that oil coming from middle east would have been greater but with a slowdown from china, as you highlight, and an increase in production from places like the united states, our vulnerability to supply from the middle east is somewhat limited. isn't it?— limited. isn't it? definitely, thins limited. isn't it? definitely, things have _ limited. isn't it? definitely, things have changed - things have changed dramatically since the 1970s and that would be the silver lining in all of the drama seeing today. that the importance of oil to the global economy has diminished in the last 50, 60 years because of higher prices because of development of alternatives and supplies coming from outside the region. it does not mean that the region is not any more

important but we do have alternatives coming from elsewhere pretty quickly from north america.— north america. thank you for bein: north america. thank you for being with — north america. thank you for being with us. _ north america. thank you for being with us. of— north america. thank you for being with us. of course, - north america. thank you for being with us. of course, if. being with us. of course, if americans particularly see oil prices at the pump rise sharply it could cause problems for vice president harris just weeks before the us presidential election. but the conflict in the middle east has bigger implications for the race of the white house. many younger voters want to see a ceasefire, something kamala harris has called for in the past. as do many muslim and arab american voters, a significant demographic in the key swing state of michigan, where she was campaigning last friday. but the vice president was clear in her support for israel when she gave a statement after the iranian missile attacks on the country last week. i have always stood by iran's

ability to defend itself. my commitment is unwavering and let us be clear, iran is not only a threat to israel but also a threat to american personnel in the region, american interests and innocent civilians across the region who suffer at the hands of iran based and backed terrorist proxies. based and backed terrorist roxies. ~ , ., proxies. we will never hesitate to take whatever _ proxies. we will never hesitate to take whatever action - proxies. we will never hesitate to take whatever action is - to take whatever action is necessary to defend us forces and interest against iran and iran backed terrorists and will continue to work with our allies and partners to disrupt his round —— iran's behaviour and hold them accountable. meanwhile, at a rally in north carolina on saturday, her rival donald trump mocked president biden�*s response and appeared to encourage an israeli attack on iran's nuclear facilities. they asked him what do you think about iran? would you hit

iran? and he said as long as they don't hit the nuclear stuff. that's the thing you want to hit, right? i said i think he's got that wrong! isn't that what you are supposed to hit? it's the biggest risk we have. nuclear weapons. the power of nuclear weapons. the power of nuclear weapons. the power of nuclear weapons. the power of weaponry. you know, i rebuild the entire military. jets, everything, including nuclear, and i hated to build the nuclear but i got to build the nuclear but i got to know first hand the power of that stuff and i will tell you what, we have to be totally prepared. we have to be absolutely prepared. when they asked him that question, the answer should have been hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later and that's what they should — if they going to do it. terry haines is founder of pangaea policy, a washington—based consultancy that advises investors on us politics. where are we right now because there are so many things going on here. we're looking at those

memorials as commemorations, one year on the attacks in israel and what has unfolded over the past year of course has been astonishing, remarkable and dreadful. but there is another element of course isn't there? this plays into the us presidential election and could make a significant difference so talk to me about how you impact the assessment it could make? —— assessment it could make? —— assess the impact it could make? it's a situation where the highest geopolitical risk in over 50 years from the united states's perspective exists so the foreign situation is very much front of mind. we have at least two hot was going and one merely so in the south china sea so —— wars. it was a lot of mind share being put on this and so foreign policy is a major component of this

election. at root, there is the two poles of this are that concerns that the biden administration help get us into the geopolitical situation but now on the other hand what folks see, at least some of those conflicts and especially the middle east, is biden and harris resolutely supporting israel, as you said before. so there is a _ israel, as you said before. sr there is a mixed impact here and because the united states is so much a nation of immigrants and people from heritage of all over the world, there is a lot of different conflicting loyalties going on as well that pull and tug at voters. , ., ., as well that pull and tug at voters. ,, ., , , as well that pull and tug at voters. ., , , ., voters. do you get a sense, and we had clips — voters. do you get a sense, and we had clips from _ voters. do you get a sense, and we had clips from both - voters. do you get a sense, and we had clips from both vice - we had clips from both vice president harris and donald trump, both of them of course vying for the white house come november, you get a sense of what their white houses would look like vis—a—vis their foreign policy? you talk about

the number of wars and conflicts unfolding. do we get any sense they have real plans for how they would tackle it if they are successful? tum they are successful? two things - firstl , they are successful? two things - firstly. it _ they are successful? two things - firstly. it is — they are successful? two things - firstly. it is a _ they are successful? two things - firstly, it is a great _ they are successful? two things - firstly, it is a great deal - — firstly, it is a great deal of bipartisanship in foreign policy in the united states. the conflicts that exist tend to get covered quite a lot but there is a great deal of foreign policy unintelligible about supporting efforts in ukraine, certainly in the middle east and israel and also in the south china sea to combat chinese aggressiveness there. that's number one. it should be understood. the second thing is what i think you will see once you get past the election, regardless of who is president — and frankly regardless of which political party may have majorities in

either house of congress — is ramping up defence spending, defence industrial —based spending and frankly more aggressive policy taking into account that the united states considers itself increasingly not only kind of the arsenal of democracy, a phrase used by franklin roosevelt in world war ii, but is applicable here today. also a growing understanding that the united states will be involved in some way in some of these conflicts as it is in a kind of second chair role in the middle east to israel right now.- to israel right now. terry, grateful — to israel right now. terry, grateful for _ to israel right now. terry, grateful for your - to israel right now. terry, grateful for your time - to israel right now. terry, grateful for your time and j to israel right now. terry, - grateful for your time and good to get your insight and we will speak again. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.

you are with bbc news. let's return to our main story this monday, october 7 — the one—year anniversary

of the hamas attack on israel. as we've been hearing, the widening conflict in the middle east has had far—reaching ramifications for the global economy. so, what happens next? let's bring in oliver cornock — global editor in chief at oxford business group, which produces economic research on markets around the world — and azad zangana, an independent global economist. good to have both of you with us. let me start with you, oliver. one year on, i wonder whether the world was ready for a shock like this and you may sayjust recovering from things like the pandemic, world economy isjust like the pandemic, world economy is just trying to get on an even keel and here is a huge geopolitical risk. absolutely. the pressure was already building, as you said, the inflationary pressure bought on the back of russia's invasion of ukraine, the post covid recovery was slowing, the chinese economy also slowing. add into this suddenly one year

now of uncertainty in the middle east which is again ratcheting upjust middle east which is again ratcheting up just recently, very sadly, and it's created other pressures and i think is one of your analyst was saying about the oil price which, of course, is so central to the middle east, it is up about 8% at the end of last week and yes to a degree, a lot of the risk had been priced into the market but we are now entering a new phase, undoubtably changing the region this last year, and whatever happens on the oil market will be driven by the response for israel or iran as to what goes on, especially if there is an attack on any form of oil infrastructure or energy infrastructure.— infrastructure. let's bring in azad. infrastructure. let's bring in azad- is _ infrastructure. let's bring in azad- is the _ infrastructure. let's bring in azad. is the world's - infrastructure. let's bring in l azad. is the world's economy got enough sort of resilience when it comes to shocks like this because we have said some of the economic growth we have seen across the world has been fragile and anaemic and went something like this comes along without a clear exit plan or a

clear end in sight, i wonder how vulnerable and fragile the economy is right now? this how vulnerable and fragile the economy is right now?- economy is right now? as this has already — economy is right now? as this has already been _ economy is right now? as this has already been discussed i has already been discussed quite — has already been discussed quite a _ has already been discussed quite a bit, the main route for this— quite a bit, the main route for this kind — quite a bit, the main route for this kind of shock to hit the global— this kind of shock to hit the global economy is through oil prices — global economy is through oil prices and potentially disruption to trade routes as welt — disruption to trade routes as well. since the war in ukraine, the capacity for global energy has been reduced quite a bit because, _ has been reduced quite a bit because, of course, most of the world _ because, of course, most of the world is— because, of course, most of the world is now no longer trading with— world is now no longer trading with russia in regards to its naturat— with russia in regards to its natural gas there has been an increased _ natural gas there has been an increased reliance on oil as a form — increased reliance on oil as a form of— increased reliance on oil as a form of energy and the global economy is far more sensible to kinds _ economy is far more sensible to kinds of— economy is far more sensible to kinds of shocks.— kinds of shocks. even though, and we were _ kinds of shocks. even though, and we were discussing - kinds of shocks. even though, and we were discussing this i and we were discussing this earlier, the world has got better at diversifying away from middle eastern oil because there are other sources, either as the united states, particularly at the moment demand slowing for oil from places like china so maybe

gives the economy a bit of breathing room but has a diversified enough, do you think, azad? ida diversified enough, do you think, azad?— think, azad? no and like i said, think, azad? no and like i said. the _ think, azad? no and like i said, the capacity - think, azad? no and like i said, the capacity is - think, azad? no and like i said, the capacity is not . think, azad? no and like i- said, the capacity is not there to said, the capacity is not there tuiust — said, the capacity is not there tojust switch it said, the capacity is not there to just switch it on if there is a — to just switch it on if there is a sudden disruption to suppty_ is a sudden disruption to supply of oil from iran or anywhere else within the region _ anywhere else within the region. i think over time, there _ region. i think over time, there witi— region. i think over time, there will eventually be ample amounts of renewable energy and alternative sources of energy that — alternative sources of energy that would reduce the reliance on the — that would reduce the reliance on the region but we are just not there _ on the region but we are just not there yet and it's more about— not there yet and it's more about the speed at which you can bring _ about the speed at which you can bring that capacity online to support the global economy. oliver. — to support the global economy. oliver. i— to support the global economy. oliver, i suppose the concern is what happens next, how this plays out, whether the escalation on israel's northern border with lebanon and the threats to and from iran grow into something more significant. what will the global economy be looking at right now to try to building a bit resilience and how to best future—proof for what we don't know because what could happen

next? , ' . ., ., next? very difficult to say of course and _ next? very difficult to say of course and obviously - next? very difficult to say of course and obviously on - next? very difficult to say of course and obviously on the | next? very difficult to say of. course and obviously on the one hand you have the oil and energy markets but on the other, as the other analyst mentioned, you have this supply chain issue. so much of the world's trade goes through the red sea. further deterioration and security of the red sea will have a major impact on global shipping and so much of industry, which was very affected by covid has not really recovered in terms of supply chains so i think it's something to watch but what can businesses do? the inventory needs to be built up a bit and that again has an inflationary pressure so this is all something that comes at a cost and the end state of it is a cost to consumers, everybody feeling that. therefore i think this period of uncertainty is going to be felt by businesses that i'm afraid in everybody�*s pockets as well. that i'm afraid in everybody's pockets as well.— that i'm afraid in everybody's pockets as well. oliver, azad, thank you _ pockets as well. oliver, azad, thank you for— pockets as well. oliver, azad, thank you for your _ pockets as well. oliver, azad, thank you for your thoughts i thank you for your thoughts this morning and something we will keep a close eye on on the

programme. just wanted to take you not only to those images we showed you from israel inaudible. images their marking one year since the october seven attacks, the first of a number of ceremonies and memorial services that will take place throughout the day but this though is the scene in beirut right now with the city being bombed once again overnight. this follows new evacuation orders issued by the israeli authorities. a number of blasts there, some suggestions the extent of them was triggered by ammunition and weapons being stored at some locations that were hit but it's worth saying that yesterday, 12 people were killed in the city, including three children, on separate israeli air strikes in central lebanon. all of this coming a little earlier we told you that the idf said they were carrying out a raid within gaza itself,

of course, further to the south. they say they are attacking hamas targets and we've had an update on that, saying they were in response to what they call an immediate threat. they said it was an intention by hamas to fire at israel. this of course has been ongoing for one year but of course today a significant day, marking one year on from there attacks on october the seventh last year in which 1200 people were killed, 251 people taken hostage. quite clearly, today, a day to remember and to reflect on the lives that were lost and what has changed in the 12 months since. conflict now raging on a number of fronts, the latest of course on israel's northern border with lebanon and these are the pictures we're looking at right now — smoke across the in beirut after further now — smoke across the in beirut afterfurther air beirut after further air strikes overnight. lebanon, it appears, now the main focus of

the israeli military as its warfare with hezbollah continues. they say they are continuing their ground invasion into the country. they are trying to eradicate threats to israel. on the northern border, a battle with hezbollah and in gaza with hamas, both of whom are of course are backed by iran. we saw in recent days the escalation of the conflict with iran, a barrage of missiles being fired into israel. most of which were intercepted by the air defence facilities. at the same time, there is continued concern about the potential for this conflict to escalate well beyond the borders of israel and gaza. today, a significant day, remembering one year on from the attacks on october the seventh. 1200 people were killed and since then, 42,000 people have been killed during israel's campaign in gaza,

nearly 2000 in lebanon. you are watching bbc news. hello. a very messy and unsettled picture weather—wise as we head through the next few days but it was a pretty start earlier on this morning. lots of red skies, as captured by our weather watchers. of course, the heaviest downpours today were out towards the west, some of the showers pushing further eastwards at times. not as much sunshine as we saw yesterday but still the chance of some more bright and sunny spells as we go through the next few days, accompanied by some rather blustery showers. brisk southerly winds, so the air is mild, warm for the time of year, even. and it's unsettled because low pressure is the dominant force. it's out towards the west of ireland. of course, all of these bands of rain showers swirling around it — that sets the scene for the rest of tonight. there will be further bands of rain just gradually pushing northwards and eastwards, but some long clear spells across northern areas of england and through the southern half of the uk as we head towards dawn tomorrow. here, temperatures could potentially drop back

into high single figures. otherwise a mild start, double figures pretty much across the board. now, tomorrow, the low pressure remains out towards the west. again, there will be further showers, longer spells of rain at times. it's quite a cloudy picture across scotland, for example, and there will be rain on and off here throughout the day. the early rain clears away from northern ireland, moves into north west england, and there could be some heavy, possibly thundery, downpours across south west england into southern wales as we head through the afternoon. but you could catch a shower almost anywhere. a little less frequent out towards the east. some sunny spells and in the best of the sunshine, temperatures will peak at 16—19 celsius — that's above the seasonal average. now, the low pressure sinks a little further southwards as we head through tuesday so some of the focus of the heaviest downpours could be across the southern half of the uk. there'll be quite frequent showers here, but again some bright and some sunny spells in between. another band of rain just pushes northwards into scotland. again, there will be quite a lot of cloud here, but once again in the best of the sunshine, it will feel

warm for the time of year. temperatures generally 14—18 celsius. now, wednesday's weather needs watching. this deep area of low pressure contains the remnants of hurricane kirk, and at the moment, we think that the worst of the weather will be across northern france, moving into the low countries, heavy rain and strong winds. but some of that rain could move into kent, perhaps. we're likely to see some very blustery winds down the north sea facing coasts as that low pulls away, and then it turns a lot colder. bye— bye.

good morning, welcome to breakfast with sally nugent and jon kay. our headlines today. explosions rock the centre of beirut as israel intensifies its air strikes against hezbollah. the israeli port city of haifa is hit by rockets fired from lebanon in retaliation. as israel marks the first anniversary of the hamas attacks that claimed more than 1,200 lives, we look at the state of the middle east conflict a year on. also this morning. after the prime minister's chief of staff, sue gray, resigns, sir keir starmer reshuffles his senior team in downing street down but not out. the manchester united manager erik ten hag says everyone at the club remains together as he ends a difficult week all smiles after a draw with aston villa.

and we meet the england team preparing for the the first