a day that shook the world. one year on from the hamas attack on israel, we look at the global economic impact. and amid escalating conflict, oil prices remain volatile. last week, crude saw the biggest gains since russia invaded ukraine. welcome to business today, i'm sally bundock. it's the 7th october — exactly one year since the attack by hamas on israel that killed more than 1200 israelis and sparked a military response that's left more than 40,000 dead in gaza and beyond. as we've been covering for you here on bbc news israel is marking the day with a series of commemorations. it begun with a ceremony at the site of the nova music festival close to the gaza border, where the first

attacks by hamas gunmen took place. more than 300 young people attending the festival were killed — others were taken hostage. it has been called israel's 9/11 by some, and like the attack on the world trade center, it's had massive repercussions around the world in both politics and economics. michelle fleury has more on the global impact one year on. the middle east conflict could add to the risks already facing the global economy. the escalation comes at a time of uncertainty around the upcoming us election and as china tries to stabilise its struggling economy. economists warn the war could push up inflation if trade routes are disrupted, causing the cost of oil and shipping to rise. a big concern is whether any escalation could block the strait of hormuz, a major shipping channel. a third of oil tanker traffic and one fifth of lng frozen gas passes through there. the oil markets

are already reacting. the price of brent crude jumped 5% last thursday after president biden said the us was discussing with israel striking iran's oil industry. this iran is the seventh largest oil producer - in the world. for now commodity prices remain below where they were last year but officials around the world are paying close attention. the biggest economic impact is being felt within the region itself. in israel the war has resulted in a drop in investment and growth, while in gaza are the constant bombing the constant bombing since hamas attacked israel on october the 7th has had a devastating impact on its economy. gdp has fallen nearly 90% in the first half of this year according to the international monetary fund. the imf has warned the war could have significant ramifications for the global economy and it plans to update its forecast for all countries later this month when the global lender and the world bank hold their annual meetings in washington.

michelle fleury there. as michelle mentioned one of the biggest impacts from the conflict has been on the price of oil. the comments from president biden on thursday saying he was discussing a potential israeli strike on iran's oil facilities in retaliation to iran's missile attack on israel not surprisingly caused a spike in prices. the week ended with oil hitting its steepest weekly rise in more than a year. it's since come down a bit. let's have a quick look at where it is now. this is where one of the main benchmarks — brent crude — was trading the last 15 minutes — the price has eased below $80 per barrel. let's speak now to kathleen brooks, research director at xtb.

great to see you. what's your take on the price of oil the moment?— moment? it's in a really interesting _ moment? it's in a really interesting position, - moment? it's in a really. interesting position, higher than its average price over the last five years, understandably. today we saw that big kneejerk reaction once the european markets opened. 0f the european markets opened. of course it is a very poignant day and the anniversary is a reminder of how long this conflict has dragged on and how we are at a new phase now. i think what we're seeing is a middle east geopolitical premium added to oil. that wasn't necessarily added in the last year. most of the last six months, oil prices have been in decline because of fears about oversupply, too much oil in the market. actually 0pec will come backin market. actually 0pec will come back in december to increase production so there will be more oilflowing in. i think these middle east geopolitical fears, as the tension between israel and iran has escalated, the threat of the us being dragged into it, a close ally of israel, maybe a potential

us— iran conflict down the line, that's taking a toll on the oil prices and we have seen that risk premium added to the oil price. we that risk premium added to the oil rice. ~ ., ., , ., oil price. we have to bear in mind that — oil price. we have to bear in mind that for _ oil price. we have to bear in mind that for every - oil price. we have to bear in mind that for every one - oil price. we have to bear in mind that for every one we | oil price. we have to bear in - mind that for every one we were in this position early in 2022 when russia invaded ukraine and again we saw a massive spike in energy prices on the global markets and everyone had to try and readjust and calculate the risk. it feels like we are in that position again. it does. oil prices — that position again. it does. oil prices haven't _ that position again. it does. oil prices haven't spiked - that position again. it does. i oil prices haven't spiked quite as much but it is a really complex situation and it adds another level of complexity to the commodity market alongside the commodity market alongside the middle east risk premium i mentioned. you also have china's stimulus that is expected to help the chinese gdp to grow. we had a monster us payroll report as well so you have the world's two largest economy is going great guns at the moment. that adds

to the upside pressure on the oil price because the global demand is set to increase at the same time as you have these geopolitical tensions and the risk of supply disruption. their recent supply disruption at the moment, so this is more of a premium. at the moment, so this is more ofa premium. if at the moment, so this is more of a premium. if we see tensions in the middle east start to fade or come back a bit then we could see it come down. it's interesting, $80 per barrel is a key psychological barrier for the barrel is a key psychological barrierfor the brent barrel is a key psychological barrier for the brent crude oil price. if we cross that then it could take us into slightly new territory. could take us into slightly new territo . ., could take us into slightly new territo . . �* territory. kathleen brooks with her take on _ territory. kathleen brooks with her take on what's _ territory. kathleen brooks with her take on what's going - territory. kathleen brooks with her take on what's going on, . her take on what's going on, thank you. simon french is chief economist at panmure liberum. i'm sure you were listening into that. we were looking at oiljust below $80 per barrel. what's your thoughts today on the 7th of october, it has been one year, in terms of how the global economy has been having to die just what is going global economy has been having to diejust what is going on in

the middle east and the implications?— the middle east and the implications? yes, i think actually — implications? yes, i think actually the _ implications? yes, i think actually the global - implications? yes, i think. actually the global economy implications? yes, i think- actually the global economy has absorbed what is a very, very difficult regional situation relatively well. actually, if anything, global growth, particularly off the back of stimulus measures announced in china in recent weeks, from decent to usjobs china in recent weeks, from decent to us jobs data at the back end of last week, appears to be getting something of a second wind. while there are undoubtedly geopolitical risks to notjust the energy markets but also shipping routes that could cause an inflationary sting in the tail, actually overall over the last 12 months global inflation has pulled back from about 3.5% on an annual rate, to less than 3%, about 2.8% in the latest data, about 2.8% in the latest data, a moderation of the big price impacts that took place in the aftermath of the covid—19 pandemic. aftermath of the covid-19 pandemic— aftermath of the covid-19 pandemic. aftermath of the covid-19 andemic. �* , , ., , pandemic. it's interesting as ou pandemic. it's interesting as you say. _ pandemic. it's interesting as you say. when _ pandemic. it's interesting as

you say, when i _ pandemic. it's interesting as you say, when i think - pandemic. it's interesting as you say, when i think aboutl you say, when i think about what has happened in the last year, and the risks posed, that is to say, inflationary risks because of the attacks on commercial vessels going through the red sea etc, like you i would agree that actually the global economy has ridden this well so far. but there is so much at stake right now in terms of what might happen next in the middle east but also the us election early in november. there are a lot of reasons to be cautious, notjust of the regional impact spreading but also geopolitical events not just in the united states but with what lessons potentially russia may take from a contested us election if it will be contested and what opportunism potentially from china there is on the geopolitical stage as a result of that. i think what it boils down to is while investors are putting money to work in stock markets but also putting it to

work in the real economy, if you like, they are feeling more upbeat about the outcome, that isn't unalloyed enthusiasm. i would say it is a nervous optimism, mindfulthere would say it is a nervous optimism, mindful there are a lot of risks on the radar at the moment.— lot of risks on the radar at the moment. �* , ., the moment. always good to get our the moment. always good to get your persuadive. _ the moment. always good to get your perspective, simon - the moment. always good to get your perspective, simon french, | your perspective, simon french, chief economist. let's stay on this subject. what is happening in the middle east and the impact it has around the world. european finance ministers are meeting today in luxembourg. soaring energy prices has had a major impact on the bloc, particularly in manufacturing—heavy countries like germany, and this has been a big risk to the eu since russia invaded ukraine in february of 2022. let's speak to our next guest now. charlotte de montpellier, senior economist, ing economic research.

for the eu finance ministers, they have their official agenda but they will all be discussing the significance of today and what impact it has had on the eu. , ., ., what impact it has had on the eu. , a, a, , what impact it has had on the eu. , a, a, eu. yes, once again, they are auoin eu. yes, once again, they are going to _ eu. yes, once again, they are going to discuss _ eu. yes, once again, they are going to discuss the _ eu. yes, once again, they are going to discuss the risk, - going to discuss the risk, which again, looking at the down sides, meaning economic growth in the european union, the eurozone, has been very weak in the past two years because of all those shocks. again they are at risk of major shock again and that's very bad news for the euro zone economy which is actually already struggling with growth. we expect that growth will go to a standstill during this winter. again, very weak growth in the eurozone. the middle east tension and the impact it has on oil prices but also gas prices is again a risk for the outlook. that's going to be a big discussion and we know that we are in a situation where we

have also a very difficult situation in public finances. that is again a problem. it means there will be measures taken and there will be a drag on growth. again, a lot of risk on growth. again, a lot of risk on the economic growth in the eurozone, definitely.— eurozone, definitely. also for the european _ eurozone, definitely. also for the european union, - eurozone, definitely. also for the european union, it's- eurozone, definitely. also for the european union, it's a - the european union, it's a really critical time. we just had a report from mario draghi out looking at the future of the eu in terms of its competitiveness and its place in the global economy. so many key members are seeing

turmoil in their own organisations and also that is to do with immigration. a lot of that where you have conflict in the middle east, that increases the impetus in countries like syria and elsewhere where people are trying to get to europe. yes. trying to get to europe. yes, definitely — trying to get to europe. yes, definitely. it's _ trying to get to europe. yes, definitely. it's one _ trying to get to europe. yes, definitely. it's one more - definitely. it's one more reason why it is politically very difficult right now where in europe we are faced with a lot of challenges. and they need to agree on something to do because the situation is so big that the european union has to do something as emphasised ljy to do something as emphasised by mario draghi in his report. we should look at what happened in the last few days when france and germany don't seem to agree on anything right now, particularly anything linked to the economy situation. 0ne the economy situation. one example is chinese electric cars. it is very difficult politically linked in with all this risk. ~ . , , . ., politically linked in with all this risk. ~ . ,, . ., this risk. we appreciate your anal sis this risk. we appreciate your analysis and _ this risk. we appreciate your analysis and thank— this risk. we appreciate your analysis and thank you - this risk. we appreciate your analysis and thank you for i analysis and thank you for joining us on bbc news. that's all from business today.

hello from the bbc sport centre. i'm hugh ferris. pakistan haven't won a home test match in 10 attempts but they've completely dominated the opening day of the first game of their series against england. after winning the toss in multan pakistan batted first and have batted very well despite losing an early wicket. since then captain shan masood and abdullah shafique have both made centuries. on their last visit two years ago it was england who hit more than 500 runs on the opening day of the series. but this time it's pakistan who are on top. here's the latest score from multan with not much left of day one. shan is onto 150. with shafique out on 102. follow the closing stages on the bbc sport website or on the radio if you're in the uk.

261-2 is 261—2 is the latest.