is on to make the final two. who most looks like a leader in waiting? and president biden warns hurricane milton could be the worst to hit florida in a century. more than a million people have fled their homes. how devastating could it be?

welcome to newsnight. the us national hurricane center has just upgraded hurricane milton to a category five storm. how much damage will that cause when it hits florida? stay with us the very latest. insight tonight comes from the newly—elected labour mp dr marie tidball, daily express political editor sam newly elected for where? palisson and socks which. _ newly elected for where? palisson and socks which. congratulations. | newly elected for where? palisson i and socks which. congratulations. -- peniston in — and socks which. congratulations. -- peniston in stockbridge. _ lister and polling expert luke tryll from more in common and nick as always. and in the tory leadership contest, we'll bring you interviews with a kemi badenoch supporter, a robertjenrick supporter and a james cleverly supporter. but first some breaking news, nick. to do with the chancellor and the budget which is three weeks tomorrow?— budget which is three weeks tomorrow? . �* , ., , tomorrow? that's right, we have been re ”ortin tomorrow? that's right, we have been reporting speculation _ tomorrow? that's right, we have been reporting speculation that _ tomorrow? that's right, we have been reporting speculation that the - reporting speculation that the chancellor would ease her very

strict fiscal debt rules to make it easier to borrow to invest. tonight it looks like the chancellor is poised to do just that. keir starmer needs growth and fast and this would be a sure—fire way to do it. the word hearing tonight is no final decision has been made, no model has been settled on, but i am told the chancellor is reading very seriously a piece that appeared in the ft towards the end of the last month by lord gus o'donnell, former permanent secretary to the treasury and former cabinet secretary and the headline said, ditch the last government's absurd debt rule and invest to grow. we will talk more about that a little later and get reaction from our newly elected labour mp right here. but let's talk about the round of voting in the tory leadership contest, four become 3.0 that's right, we were sitting here last wednesday and you said, how did it go in birmingham on the final day when the four candidates made their

speeches? i when the four candidates made their seeches? ,., when the four candidates made their seeches? g ., , , speeches? i said james cleverly knocked it _ speeches? i said james cleverly knocked it out _ speeches? i said james cleverly knocked it out of _ speeches? i said james cleverly knocked it out of the _ speeches? i said james cleverly knocked it out of the park - speeches? i said james cleverly l knocked it out of the park printer speeches? i said james cleverly i knocked it out of the park printer i stressed that was not me i was quoting but somebody in a rival campaign and did he do it? let's look at the campaign and did he do it? let's look at the results. campaign and did he do it? let's look at the results. james campaign and did he do it? let's look at the results. james cleverly came first on 39 votes in the crucial thing is, up by 18. came first on 39 votes in the crucialthing is, up by 18. robert jenrick was second on 31, down by two, kemi badenoch in third on 30 which is up two and tom tugendhat goes out with 20 votes. james cleverly is not guaranteed to be in the final ballot, the two that go before the membership, because each ballot is a new ballot but it's highly, highly likely he will be there. so now it is a battle for the crucial second place between kemi badenoch and robertjenrick. that a second place can just be fine in the connor smith, liz truss both came second and both won the leadership so there is now frantic leadership in both camps —— iain duncan smith. sam has been receiving these briefings! kemi badenoch think i have the momentum, robertjenrick

saying i became above kemi badenoch and have support across the party, vicky atkins on the left, then it rigging on the right. item. —— danny kruger on the right. i've been in the house of commons today, talking to conservatives, and i spoke to an mp supporting james cleverly, greg smith, who was feeling upbeat. we have put on a lot of votes by this positive focus on looking to the future, and saying from his experience, both in the great offices of state, home secretary and foreign secretary, his time as party chairman when he was actually ahead of their campaigning machine that won our last big majority, in 2019, that he is ready to go from day one. and i think that positive message has resonated with colleagues, which has shone through in the vote result we have seen this afternoon. i wonder if mr tugendhat�*s followers will automatically go to mr cleverly when mr tugendhat said it was disgraceful, talks to hand the chagos islands back to mauritius had begun on mr cleverly�*s watch. look, we are talking to all colleagues, there is nothing automatic about any conservative mp switching to any candidate. we are remaining

relentlessly positive. all i would say is that james inherited those negotiations from the prime minister he served under at the time and no deal was done underjames. the chagos islands were not even away while james was foreign secretary, he did no such deal it has only taken a matter of weeks for this labour government, for them to roll over and give them away. but how much time was he going to waste in negotiations? how many meetings were there? 11? and nothing had happened? well, that's the point, isn't it? nothing happened. no deal was done. the chagos islands were not given away under a conservative government. so is he claiming he would have been able to keep them under uk sovereignty? look, the focus is that it has taken a few weeks for labour to give them away. what is he saying he would have done? no deal was done under a conservative government. luke lu ke tryll, luke tryll, why do you thinkjames cleverly has gone into the lead? i think the decision to extend the conservative party leadership contest over the party conference season has proved decisive so far because james cleverly had a very

good conference, notjust his speech which nicked talk about which was very good but the two frontrunners having quite a difficult party conference, the previous front runners, kemi badenoch and robert jenrick, some of their comments unsettled tory mps. but i think there was something else, something in the conference speech where he said the tories just need to be a bit more normal. it was interesting, we spent a lot of the summer talking to voters about the candidates and the one thing they consistently said about james cleverly that he seemed relatable, he seems like he might get it. almost like he was the sort of anti sunak and i think tory mps are looking at that and the reasons why they lost and thinking that maybe james cleverly has the answer. assuming mr cleverly makes it to the final two and we can't assume anything because tory mps, and these are all fickle, notjust tory mps! who do you expect to be alongside him? . , ., . ., him? that is far too close to goal at this stage! _ him? that is far too close to goal at this stage! one _ him? that is far too close to goal at this stage! one vote _ him? that is far too close to goal

at this stage! one vote in - him? that is far too close to goal at this stage! one vote in it, - him? that is far too close to goal at this stage! one vote in it, all | at this stage! 0ne vote in it, all to play— at this stage! 0ne vote in it, all to play for~ _ at this stage! 0ne vote in it, all to play for. we know, nick was right when _ to play for. we know, nick was right when he _ to play for. we know, nick was right when he talked about the briefings and the _ when he talked about the briefings and the intensity of them today has been off— and the intensity of them today has been off the scale. my phone has been _ been off the scale. my phone has been ringing constantly. it's got quite _ been ringing constantly. it's got quite vicious, i'm not going to pretend — quite vicious, i'm not going to pretend otherwise. that is because there's— pretend otherwise. that is because there's a _ pretend otherwise. that is because there's a lot at stake. robert jenrick— there's a lot at stake. robert jenrick has been working on this for i would _ jenrick has been working on this for lwoutd say— jenrick has been working on this for i would say two years relentlessly campaigning with backbenchers, the constituencies. he's been strategic and organised. kemi badenoch i think has been _ and organised. kemi badenoch i think has been less prone to pressing the flesh has been less prone to pressing the flesh and _ has been less prone to pressing the flesh and there's been a certain flurry— flesh and there's been a certain flurry of— flesh and there's been a certain flurry of activity today from a camp bond _ flurry of activity today from a camp bond with — flurry of activity today from a camp pond with james cleverly, you saw with him. — pond with james cleverly, you saw with him, he absolutely was trailing behind _ with him, he absolutely was trailing behind in _ with him, he absolutely was trailing behind in this competition but he absolutely always believed he could -et absolutely always believed he could get the _ absolutely always believed he could get the party conference and turn it around _ get the party conference and turn it around and — get the party conference and turn it around and that's what we've seen. an ex— around and that's what we've seen. an ex party— around and that's what we've seen. an ex party chairman, he knows how to work— an ex party chairman, he knows how to work up _ an ex party chairman, he knows how to work up the base and get the members — to work up the base and get the members and that's what we saw on that conference staged last week. briefing _ that conference staged last week. briefing getting a bit vicious, give us an example? i

briefing getting a bit vicious, give us an example?— briefing getting a bit vicious, give us an example? i received this very breathless call _ us an example? i received this very breathless call this _ us an example? i received this very breathless call this morning - us an example? i received this very breathless call this morning with i breathless call this morning with some suggestions about the shenanigans going on in one of the rival camps, — shenanigans going on in one of the rival camps, i tested that camp and immediately received fus phone call denying _ immediately received fus phone call denying all knowledge. that immediately received fus phone call denying all knowledge.— denying all knowledge. that was before the result. _ denying all knowledge. that was before the result. they - denying all knowledge. that was before the result. they are - denying all knowledge. that was before the result. they are very | before the result. they are very much on high — before the result. they are very much on high alert— before the result. they are very much on high alert -- _ before the result. they are very much on high alert -- a - before the result. they are very much on high alert -- a furious| much on high alert —— a furious phone — much on high alert —— a furious phone cait _ much on high alert -- a furious phone call-— much on high alert -- a furious hone call. ., ., ., ., phone call. labour have had a rocky few weeks. — phone call. labour have had a rocky few weeks. is _ phone call. labour have had a rocky few weeks, is that _ phone call. labour have had a rocky few weeks, is that fair? _ phone call. labour have had a rocky few weeks, is that fair? i _ few weeks, is that fair? i don't acce -t few weeks, is that fair? i don't accept that. — few weeks, is that fair? i don't accept that, no. _ few weeks, is that fair? i don't accept that, no. i— few weeks, is that fair? i don't accept that, no. ijust - few weeks, is that fair? i don't accept that, no. i just wanted | few weeks, is that fair? i don't. accept that, no. i just wanted to accept that, no. i 'ust wanted to see if accept that, no. i 'ust wanted to if you h accept that, no. i 'ust wanted to see if you agreed — accept that, no. i just wanted to see if you agreed with _ accept that, no. i just wanted to see if you agreed with that! - accept that, no. i just wanted to i see if you agreed with that! labour have had a rocky few weeks, quite a lot of people are suggesting them over freebies and pursue great and so on but imagine what it would have been like if you had had her majesty's opposition not choosing a new leader, it would have been even tougher. irate new leader, it would have been even tou:her. ~ . , ., ~ tougher. we have 'ust heard luke talk about him — tougher. we have just heard luke talk about him speaking - tougher. we have just heard luke talk about him speaking to - tougher. we have just heard luke | talk about him speaking to voters, but much — talk about him speaking to voters, but much more _ talk about him speaking to voters, but much more than _ talk about him speaking to voters, but much more than any— talk about him speaking to voters, but much more than any of - talk about him speaking to voters, but much more than any of the - talk about him speaking to voters, i but much more than any of the tory leaders _ but much more than any of the tory leaders have — but much more than any of the tory leaders have done _ but much more than any of the tory leaders have done what _ but much more than any of the tory leaders have done what we've - but much more than any of the tory leaders have done what we've seen| leaders have done what we've seen from all_ leaders have done what we've seen from all of— leaders have done what we've seen from all of those _ leaders have done what we've seen from all of those leaders _ leaders have done what we've seen from all of those leaders is - leaders have done what we've seen from all of those leaders is a - leaders have done what we've seen from all of those leaders is a partyl from all of those leaders is a party that is_ from all of those leaders is a party that is still— from all of those leaders is a party that is still unserious _ from all of those leaders is a party that is still unserious about - that is still unserious about government— that is still unserious about government and _ that is still unserious about| government and governing. that is still unserious about - government and governing. and i have not spent _ government and governing. and i have not spent any —

government and governing. and i have not spent any time _ government and governing. and i have not spent any time talking _ government and governing. and i have not spent any time talking about - government and governing. and i have not spent any time talking about why. not spent any time talking about why they lost _ not spent any time talking about why they lost the — not spent any time talking about why they lost the election, _ not spent any time talking about why they lost the election, being - not spent any time talking about why they lost the election, being held - they lost the election, being held to account — they lost the election, being held to account pond _ they lost the election, being held to account pond they've - they lost the election, being held to account pond they've sat —— i they lost the election, being held . to account pond they've sat —— have because _ to account pond they've sat —— have because i've sat— to account pond they've sat —— have because i've sat on— to account pond they've sat —— have because i've sat on quite _ to account pond they've sat —— have because i've sat on quite a - to account pond they've sat —— have because i've sat on quite a lot... . because i've sat on quite a lot... to account — because i've sat on quite a lot... to account of _ because i've sat on quite a lot... to account of the _ because i've sat on quite a lot... to account of the legacy- because i've sat on quite a lot... to account of the legacy of- because i've sat on quite a lot... to account of the legacy of the i because i've sat on quite a lot... i to account of the legacy of the left a 14 years — to account of the legacy of the left a 14 years of — to account of the legacy of the left a 14 years of their— to account of the legacy of the left a 14 years of their time _ to account of the legacy of the left a 14 years of their time in- to account of the legacy of the left a 14 years of their time in office. i a 14 years of their time in office. we are— a14 years of their time in office. we are seeing— a 14 years of their time in office. we are seeing the nhs- a 14 years of their time in office. we are seeing the nhs broken, i a 14 years of their time in office. - we are seeing the nhs broken, with the report— we are seeing the nhs broken, with the report that — we are seeing the nhs broken, with the report that came _ we are seeing the nhs broken, with the report that came out _ we are seeing the nhs broken, with the report that came out recently, i the report that came out recently, that we _ the report that came out recently, that we had — the report that came out recently, that we had in— the report that came out recently, that we had in parliament - the report that came out recently, that we had in parliament at - the report that came out recently, that we had in parliament at the i that we had in parliament at the start— that we had in parliament at the start of— that we had in parliament at the start of the _ that we had in parliament at the start of the weak— that we had in parliament at the start of the weak point - that we had in parliament at the start of the weak point we - that we had in parliament at the start of the weak point we have i that we had in parliament at the - start of the weak point we have seen it with _ start of the weak point we have seen it with our— start of the weak point we have seen it with our transport _ start of the weak point we have seen it with our transport system, - start of the weak point we have seen it with our transport system, with . start of the weak point we have seen it with our transport system, with a i it with our transport system, with a cost of _ it with our transport system, with a cost of living — it with our transport system, with a cost of living people _ it with our transport system, with a cost of living people are _ it with our transport system, with a cost of living people are facing - it with our transport system, with a cost of living people are facing up l cost of living people are facing up and down — cost of living people are facing up and down the _ cost of living people are facing up and down the country. _ cost of living people are facing up and down the country. and - cost of living people are facing up and down the country. and nonel cost of living people are facing up. and down the country. and none of them _ and down the country. and none of them are _ and down the country. and none of them are prepared _ and down the country. and none of them are prepared to— and down the country. and none of them are prepared to take - them are prepared to take responsibility— them are prepared to take responsibility for- them are prepared to take responsibility for that. - them are prepared to take i responsibility forthat. none them are prepared to take - responsibility for that. none are going _ responsibility for that. none are going through _ responsibility for that. none are going through the _ responsibility for that. none are going through the process - responsibility for that. none are going through the process that. going through the process that labour— going through the process that labour went— going through the process that labour went through _ going through the process that labour went through in - going through the process that labour went through in 2019 l going through the process that. labour went through in 2019 when going through the process that - labour went through in 2019 when we lost that— labour went through in 2019 when we lost that election, _ labour went through in 2019 when we lost that election, to _ labour went through in 2019 when we lost that election, to actually- labour went through in 2019 when we lost that election, to actually say- lost that election, to actually say why they — lost that election, to actually say why they lost _ lost that election, to actually say why they lost. at _ lost that election, to actually say why they lost-— lost that election, to actually say wh the lost. . ., ., why they lost. at some would argue they absolutely. _ why they lost. at some would argue they absolutely. crucially, _ why they lost. at some would argue they absolutely. crucially, how - why they lost. at some would argue they absolutely. crucially, how they| they absolutely. crucially, how they ut they absolutely. crucially, how they put country — they absolutely. crucially, how they put country before _ they absolutely. crucially, how they put country before party. _ they absolutely. crucially, how they put country before party. ok. - let's now talk to helen whately, who is the shadow transport secretary — and a supporter of kemi badenoch. she says that ms badenoch has got the vision, courage, and the right convictions to rebuild the party into a movement fit for modern times.

thank you for talking to our audience. has kemi badenoch blown it? ., ., ., ., ~ audience. has kemi badenoch blown it? ., ., ., ., �*, it? not at all and i think she's in a aood it? not at all and i think she's in a good position _ it? not at all and i think she's in a good position to _ it? not at all and i think she's in a good position to be _ it? not at all and i think she's in a good position to be into - it? not at all and i think she's in a good position to be into the i it? not at all and i think she's in i a good position to be into the final two to go to members conduct she was second in the last round and now she's third. yes but what we've seen is she has increased the number of votes since the last round, making progress and also i've been talking to a lot of college and hearing very positive things about what they feel she has been saying. the approach she's been taking. 0ne she has been saying. the approach she's been taking. one of the things i think she is really in front of colleagues on the final stage for members of parliament is that it's time for us to get really serious. people are getting really serious and recognising the thing that has very much influenced my position in this leadership contest which is we are notjust choosing a leader of the concept party for the next couple of years, where notjust choosing a leader to take us into the 2029 general election, we are choosing the person who we think

should be our prime minister into the 20 30s so it's really looking ahead. who is the person who has that combination of the courage to really look at the challenges the country faces, the vision to put together a vision for the future of our country and make the most of the opportunities that we have, and also somebody who really has cut through because cut through it so important in today's busy social media world. to me she has those things and that's why i'm backing her. last week in his conference - that's why i'm backing her. last week in his conference speech, james cleverly said now is not the time for an apprentice. and he also said that talk is easy. how much do you worry that sometimes when kemi badenoch talks, she clocks things up? i badenoch talks, she clocks things u - ? ~ badenoch talks, she clocks things u . ? ~' ., badenoch talks, she clocks things u . ? ~ ., ., badenoch talks, she clocks things up? i think all of the candidates we have had for— up? i think all of the candidates we have had for this _ up? i think all of the candidates we have had for this contest _ up? i think all of the candidates we have had for this contest are - up? i think all of the candidates we l have had for this contest are people with very worthwhile experience to bring to the job and clearly kemi, having done several big government jobs and really having achieved a great deal, for instance the deals she did as secretary of state on

trade, so she has a huge amount of experience... she trade, so she has a huge amount of experience- - -— experience... she doesn't make mistakes. _ experience... she doesn't make mistakes. you — experience... she doesn't make mistakes, you would _ experience... she doesn't make i mistakes, you would acknowledge that? i mistakes, you would acknowledge that? ., , mistakes, you would acknowledge that? ., ., ., that? i would say one of her qualities... _ that? i would say one of her qualities... you _ that? i would say one of her| qualities... you acknowledge that? i would say one of her - qualities... you acknowledge that? clearly they — qualities... you acknowledge that? clearly they have _ qualities... you acknowledge that? clearly they have been _ qualities... you acknowledge that? clearly they have been some - clearly they have been some headlines coming out of the scrutiny. headlines coming out of the scrutin . ,, , headlines coming out of the scrutin. ,, , ., , ., ., scrutiny. she is really faced a lot of scrutiny... _ scrutiny. she is really faced a lot of scrutiny... that's _ scrutiny. she is really faced a lot of scrutiny... that's what - scrutiny. she is really faced a lot i of scrutiny... that's what happens. ri . htl of scrutiny... that's what happens. rightly so. — of scrutiny... that's what happens. rightly so. and _ of scrutiny... that's what happens. rightly so, and people _ of scrutiny... that's what happens. rightly so, and people say - of scrutiny... that's what happens. rightly so, and people say one - of scrutiny... that's what happens. rightly so, and people say one of. rightly so, and people say one of her qualities and i see this is she is straight talking, she is authentic, she will get into the detail so it's notjust about delivering a line. people don't want to see politicians just delivering a line. it's really getting into the heart when issue and having a proper conversation pond but on maternity pay come and take five to 10% of civil servants should be injail. fin civil servants should be in “ail. on the civil servants should be injail. 0n the page and walkie—talkie attacks in lebanon which killed dozens of people including children, she said they were amazing.— people including children, she said they were amazing. picking up some of that, you — they were amazing. picking up some of that, you mention _ they were amazing. picking up some of that, you mention the _ they were amazing. picking up some of that, you mention the maternity l of that, you mention the maternity pay, of course she support maternity

pay, of course she support maternity pay, she's been clear on that and is a mother of three small children at the time she was in a conversation about excessive regulation and the challenge of regulation to our economy. that's so important, such an important conversation for us to be having. we know we have relatively sluggish growth and we had to preach that for our future month that she was engaging very seriously in that conversation. fiifi seriously in that conversation. ok, can i ask seriously in that conversation. ok, can i ask about— seriously in that conversation. ok, can i ask about her— seriously in that conversation. 0k, can i ask about herjudgment? in 2018, she admitted hacking into harriet harman's website ten years previously. what does that say about herjudgment? mr; previously. what does that say about herjudgment?— herjudgment? my experience of workin: herjudgment? my experience of working with _ herjudgment? my experience of working with kemi. .. _ herjudgment? my experience of working with kemi. .. i'm - herjudgment? my experience of working with kemi... i'm asking| working with kemi... i'm asking about her— working with kemi... i'm asking about herjudgment _ working with kemi... i'm asking about herjudgment and - working with kemi... i'm asking about herjudgment and that. working with kemi. .. i'm asking - about herjudgment and that example but i'm not going to be drawn into specific examples which are throwing at me at this moment. let specific examples which are throwing at me at this moment.— at me at this moment. let me talk about my experience _ at me at this moment. let me talk about my experience of— at me at this moment. let me talk about my experience of working i at me at this moment. let me talk. about my experience of working with kemi... about my experience of working with kemi. .. �* �* kemi. .. they talk over each other you can talk— kemi. . . they talk over each other you can talk about _ kemi. . . they talk over each other you can talk about your— kemi. . . they talk over each other you can talk about your experience - you can talk about your experience if you answer my question. it's aboutjudgment on that so important

when you're a leader, you know that. a few years ago, kemi badenoch admitted hacking into harriet harman's website a decade previously. what does that say in your view about herjudgment? what previously. what does that say in your view about herjudgment? your view about her 'udgment? what i would say is _ your view about her 'udgment? what i would say is r _ your view about herjudgment? what i would say is i completely _ your view about herjudgment? what i would say is i completely agree - your view about herjudgment? tfarusgti would say is i completely agree with you thatjudgment is very important point is i was saying, i have worked alongside kemi, i know her well and i know the other candidates well and i know the other candidates well and i think ijudgment, i've seen the positions she takes on things and the way she thinks... positions she takes on things and the way she thinks. . ._ positions she takes on things and the way she thinks... they talk over each other — each other let me just say, i figured you based on my experience of her listening to her. ., ., , ., her. conversations with in the round with her at looking _ her. conversations with in the round with her at looking ahead, _ her. conversations with in the round with her at looking ahead, as - her. conversations with in the round with her at looking ahead, as i - her. conversations with in the round with her at looking ahead, as i said| with her at looking ahead, as i said at the beginning, this is about who i think has got what it takes to be the prime minister we need in the future, the 20 30s, and the challenges we face put a is about one specific thing, it's about... have you ever hacked into a rival politician's website? haven't but...

talk over each other is quite an unusual thing to say. look at the dangerous world in which we live, look at what's going on in the middle this is a context in which we live. we need somebody who is thinking seriously about the challenges before our country, particularly on the economy which all our futures depend on, particularly on the economy which all ourfutures depend on, which impact our security also depends that's what she has fought so hard about and i think as a vision we need to take us forward. rank you very much- _ luke tryll, you've done polling with the general public on the three remaining candidates and how they would fare against the pm. we've done a series of what are called head—to—head talks we put the candidate against keir starmer and what we found is that kelly bad luck has the most ground to make up at the moment. she is trailing keir starmer 41%, to 59%. robertjenrick a bit closer, 44% and james cleverly

the closest of all on the question of who would make the better prime minister, 48% forjames cleverly but still in the lead keir starmer on 52%. ., ., y ., still in the lead keir starmer on 52%. ., ., ,., still in the lead keir starmer on 52%. ., ., ., [m 52%. how do you react to that,? for me the only — 52%. how do you react to that,? for me the only poll _ 52%. how do you react to that,? for me the only poll that _ 52%. how do you react to that,? for me the only poll that matters - 52%. how do you react to that,? for me the only poll that matters is - 52%. how do you react to that,? for me the only poll that matters is the| me the only poll that matters is the general election which saw us return a majority of over 400 including more women labour mps than there are conservative mps in the house of parliament at the moment. in my own seat i got a 90.9% majority and so at this stage in the election cycle while we have five years left of government that is the poll that matters. i government that is the poll that matters. ~ ., government that is the poll that matters. ~' ., ., ., �*, matters. i kinda into that! let's hear from _ matters. i kinda into that! let's hearfrom a _ matters. i kinda into that! let's hear from a supporter of - matters. i kinda into that! let's| hear from a supporter of robert jenrick. mrjenrick came second in the mps voting today — last time he came first. here's shadowjustice secretary edward argar. robertjenrick has gone backwards? well, i think it's still

a strong result for rob. he is second at the moment. i have to acknowledge it is a strong result forjames cleverly post conference. but rob is in a strong position, and i'm confident we will see him in the final two after tomorrow's voting. he was in the lead, though. well, you know the conservative parliamentary party and particularly when there is a small number of mps as sadly there are now. a small movement can make a big difference. i think rob is still in a strong position and i'm confident we will see him in the final when those results are declared tomorrow. of course there will be a lot of work to do in the next 24 hours for those who backed tom tugendhat to try and persuade them to back robert. and i want to pay tribute to tom, he fought a tough campaign. he fought a good campaign. he is a good guy. he was very critical of the man you are supporting over the footage that was shown in that robertjenrick campaign video last week, which was a former colleague of tom tugendhat�*s. well, i'm here to pay tribute to tom. whatever the ups and downs and whatever he said in the campaign, whatever others do, he is a valued colleague, he is a friend of mine. and i pay tribute to anyone

who actually is willing to put themselves forward to lead their party, and he did. you are a shadowjustice secretary now, how can you support robertjenrick, who wants to pull out of the echr? well look, i think what we saw at the general election was the electorate giving us a very clear message. they didn't want us in government and there were a number of reasons behind that. one of them was the challenge of getting to grips with illegal migration. rob set out a very clear plan as to how he would do that and he has been clear that the echr at the moment is a barrier to doing that. let's talk about the change of rules that the chancellor seems to be on the verge of doing when it comes to the verge of doing when it comes to the budget in three weeks' time. that the budget in three weeks' time. git the budget in three weeks' time. git the risk of disagreeing with marie that this may be has not been the most glorious month for the newly elected government you can feel the

gears shift in whitehall and moving towards the budget. and they want to control the narrative and fill the space and what we are hearing is that it space and what we are hearing is thatitis space and what we are hearing is that it is a bill to grow. you could ease the debt rule by counting bank of england debt in a different way, discounting their losses from asset sales which could create 10 billion. the other one is to target public sector net worth is a debt measure and that could raise 57 billion. this will take account of the value of public assets like roads, schools and hospitals. to get an idea of how seriously the chancellor is taking this let's have a look at her reading list. she is reading a piece from gus 0'donnell reading list. she is reading a piece from gus o'donnell and a piece on the financial times, pension funds call for uk fiscal rules changed to spur investment. and they quote a big pensions expert who is the former labour mp and former shadow pensioners lister massively rated by

the keir starmer people. also readingjim 0'neill, a city minister under george osborne, writing in the times today, the rule that requires government debt to be falling in five years' time, balancing government decisions against long—term investment and he is talking about the public sector net worth idea. crucially no decision has been made no model settled on but word from the treasury is that they're saying essentially a growing coalition of people backing this change. coalition of people backing this chance. ~., coalition of people backing this chance. �* change. marie tidball, i'm assuming one of the features _ change. marie tidball, i'm assuming one of the features that _ change. marie tidball, i'm assuming one of the features that you - change. marie tidball, i'm assuming one of the features that you come i one of the features that you come head—on in the run—up to the general election was got shadow chancellor she was then who has for two years said that she has got these absolutely guaranteed fiscal rules. ironclad, if you like. but now she is changing the goalposts.-

ironclad, if you like. but now she is changing the goalposts. could the markets take _ is changing the goalposts. could the markets take fright? _ is changing the goalposts. could the markets take fright? the _ is changing the goalposts. could the markets take fright? the first - is changing the goalposts. could the markets take fright? the first thing | markets take fright? the first thing to say— markets take fright? the first thing to say is _ markets take fright? the first thing to say is we've not had the budget yet and _ to say is we've not had the budget yet and we — to say is we've not had the budget yet and we have to wait until the end of— yet and we have to wait until the end of the — yet and we have to wait until the end of the month. but our fiscal rules— end of the month. but our fiscal rules are — end of the month. but our fiscal rules are different to the conservatives. this is a difference between — conservatives. this is a difference between day—to—day spending and spending — between day—to—day spending and spending to invest. and we know is who said _ spending to invest. and we know is who said right away from the beginning in our manifesto and through— beginning in our manifesto and through the campaign that growth is the top _ through the campaign that growth is the top priority. and spending to invest— the top priority. and spending to invest enables us to reach that point — invest enables us to reach that point so— invest enables us to reach that point. so it is not a sea change but we have _ point. so it is not a sea change but we have got— point. so it is not a sea change but we have got to wait and see what is actually _ we have got to wait and see what is actually said. but we have got to wait and see what is actually said-— actually said. but if it happens and i do trust nick, _ actually said. but if it happens and i do trust nick, i _ actually said. but if it happens and i do trust nick, i have _ actually said. but if it happens and i do trust nick, i have to _ actually said. but if it happens and i do trust nick, i have to be - i do trust nick, i have to be honest. �* ., , i do trust nick, i have to be honest. . ., , , ., i do trust nick, i have to be honest. . ., ,, ., ., honest. and it has appeared on the front -aoe honest. and it has appeared on the front page of _ honest. and it has appeared on the front page of the _ honest. and it has appeared on the front page of the guardian - honest. and it has appeared on the front page of the guardian with - honest. and it has appeared on the front page of the guardian with the j front page of the guardian with the view that we should take that story very seriously. view that we should take that story very seriously-— view that we should take that story very seriously. would you welcome it? iwant very seriously. would you welcome it? i want to _ very seriously. would you welcome it? i want to see _ very seriously. would you welcome it? i want to see us _ very seriously. would you welcome it? i want to see us grow _ very seriously. would you welcome it? i want to see us grow the - it? i want to see us grow the economy— it? i want to see us grow the economy that will benefit constituents up and down the country _ constituents up and down the country. and if it means we get to that point— country. and if it means we get to that point then absolutely i would welcome — that point then absolutely i would welcome that.— that point then absolutely i would welcome that. .. , ., .,

welcome that. sam lister, what would our dail welcome that. sam lister, what would your daily express _ welcome that. sam lister, what would your daily express readers _ welcome that. sam lister, what would your daily express readers make - welcome that. sam lister, what would your daily express readers make of. your daily express readers make of this? ~ , ., . ., your daily express readers make of this? ~ ,., .., , , your daily express readers make of this? , , this? well you could see this coming from outer space, _ this? well you could see this coming from outer space, it _ this? well you could see this coming from outer space, it was _ this? well you could see this coming from outer space, it was clear - this? well you could see this coming from outer space, it was clear that i from outer space, it was clear that this was— from outer space, it was clear that this was the — from outer space, it was clear that this was the direction _ from outer space, it was clear that this was the direction of— from outer space, it was clear that this was the direction of travel. . this was the direction of travel. jeremy— this was the direction of travel. jeremy hunt— this was the direction of travel. jeremy hunt use _ this was the direction of travel. jeremy hunt use his— this was the direction of travel. jeremy hunt use his party- this was the direction of travel. - jeremy hunt use his party conference speech— jeremy hunt use his party conference speech to _ jeremy hunt use his party conference speech to suggest _ jeremy hunt use his party conference speech to suggest that _ jeremy hunt use his party conference speech to suggest that this _ jeremy hunt use his party conference speech to suggest that this is - jeremy hunt use his party conference speech to suggest that this is what i speech to suggest that this is what labour— speech to suggest that this is what labour was — speech to suggest that this is what labour was about— speech to suggest that this is what labour was about to _ speech to suggest that this is what labour was about to do _ speech to suggest that this is what labour was about to do and - speech to suggest that this is what labour was about to do and we - speech to suggest that this is what| labour was about to do and we had articles— labour was about to do and we had articles in— labour was about to do and we had articles in esteemed _ labour was about to do and we had articles in esteemed journals - labour was about to do and we had articles in esteemed journals in - articles in esteemed journals in recent— articles in esteemed journals in recent weeks _ articles in esteemed journals in recent weeks setting _ articles in esteemed journals in recent weeks setting out - articles in esteemed journals in recent weeks setting out the i articles in esteemed journals in i recent weeks setting out the path for this _ recent weeks setting out the path forthis for— recent weeks setting out the path for this for my— recent weeks setting out the path for this. for my readers _ recent weeks setting out the path for this. for my readers i - recent weeks setting out the path for this. for my readers i think. recent weeks setting out the pathl for this. for my readers i think and for this. for my readers i think and for the _ for this. for my readers i think and for the wider — for this. for my readers i think and for the wider public _ for this. for my readers i think and for the wider public the _ for this. for my readers i think andl for the wider public the government has a _ for the wider public the government has a problem — for the wider public the government has a problem because _ for the wider public the government has a problem because although i for the wider public the governmentl has a problem because although this is about— has a problem because although this is about capital— has a problem because although this is about capital spending and - is about capital spending and investment, _ is about capital spending and investment, actually- is about capital spending and investment, actually what i is about capital spending andi investment, actually what the is about capital spending and - investment, actually what the public are seeing _ investment, actually what the public are seeing is— investment, actually what the public are seeing is the— investment, actually what the public are seeing is the government - investment, actually what the public are seeing is the government can. are seeing is the government can magic— are seeing is the government can magic up £50 _ are seeing is the government can magic up £50 billion _ are seeing is the government can magic up £50 billion of _ are seeing is the government can magic up £50 billion of it - are seeing is the government can magic up £50 billion of it once i are seeing is the government canl magic up £50 billion of it once too the same — magic up £50 billion of it once too the same time it— magic up £50 billion of it once too the same time it says _ magic up £50 billion of it once too the same time it says there - magic up £50 billion of it once too the same time it says there is- magic up £50 billion of it once too the same time it says there is a i magic up £50 billion of it once too| the same time it says there is a 22 billion— the same time it says there is a 22 billion black— the same time it says there is a 22 billion black hole _ the same time it says there is a 22 billion black hole in— the same time it says there is a 22 billion black hole in day—to—day i billion black hole in day—to—day spending — billion black hole in day—to—day spending and _ billion black hole in day—to—day spending and pensioners- billion black hole in day—to—day spending and pensioners have. billion black hole in day—to—dayl spending and pensioners have to billion black hole in day—to—day - spending and pensioners have to foot the bill _ spending and pensioners have to foot the bill i_ spending and pensioners have to foot the bill ithink— spending and pensioners have to foot the bill. ithinkthat_ spending and pensioners have to foot the bill. ithinkthat is— spending and pensioners have to foot the bill. i think that is a _ the bill. i think that is a difficult _ the bill. i think that is a difficult message - the bill. i think that is a difficult message to i the bill. i think that is a difficult message to try| the bill. i think that is a i difficult message to try to the bill. i think that is a - difficult message to try to land. what _ difficult message to try to land. what do — difficult message to try to land. what do you _ difficult message to try to land. what do you think, _ difficult message to try to land. what do you think, luke - difficult message to try to land. what do you think, luke tryll i difficult message to try to land. i what do you think, luke tryll from the people you speak to in polling? i think a lot of the public do not spend _ i think a lot of the public do not spend much time thinking about for schools— spend much time thinking about for schools but borrowing to invest we have seen — schools but borrowing to invest we have seen that people are more relaxed — have seen that people are more relaxed about that than borrowing on

day-to-day_ relaxed about that than borrowing on day—to—day spending and i think that the public— day—to—day spending and i think that the public can distinguish between them _ the public can distinguish between them i_ the public can distinguish between them. i think labour may have gone wrong _ them. i think labour may have gone wrong in _ them. i think labour may have gone wrong in that first 100 days by giving — wrong in that first 100 days by giving the impression that it would be even _ giving the impression that it would be even more austerity and top 14 years— be even more austerity and top 14 years of— be even more austerity and top 14 years of austerity which has driven down _ years of austerity which has driven down some — years of austerity which has driven down some of their poll ratings. and being _ down some of their poll ratings. and being able _ down some of their poll ratings. and being able to give a positive message about life after difficult decisions is really important. in terms decisions is really important. terms of decisions is really important. in terms of voter expectations as i mentioned, rachel reeves talked about being ironclad, is that the right phrase? i about being ironclad, is that the right phrase?— right phrase? i fiscal discipline. and if the change _ right phrase? i fiscal discipline. and if the change comes - right phrase? i fiscal discipline. and if the change comes and i right phrase? i fiscal discipline. l and if the change comes and she right phrase? i fiscal discipline. - and if the change comes and she does change the fiscal rules that leaves it open to attack certainly from opposition parties and others that you talked about pension funds and wanting her to do this but what about investors? you wanting her to do this but what about investors?— wanting her to do this but what about investors? you seen those articles that _ about investors? you seen those articles that nick _ about investors? you seen those articles that nick talked - about investors? you seen those articles that nick talked about i about investors? you seen those | articles that nick talked about and there's— articles that nick talked about and there's a _ articles that nick talked about and

there's a big — articles that nick talked about and there's a big case _ articles that nick talked about and there's a big case that the - articles that nick talked about and there's a big case that the uk- articles that nick talked about and there's a big case that the uk hasl there's a big case that the uk has been _ there's a big case that the uk has been hamstrung _ there's a big case that the uk has been hamstrung from _ there's a big case that the uk has. been hamstrung from an investment perspective — been hamstrung from an investment perspective and _ been hamstrung from an investment perspective and changing _ been hamstrung from an investment perspective and changing the - been hamstrung from an investment perspective and changing the fiscal. perspective and changing the fiscal rules would — perspective and changing the fiscal rules would bring _ perspective and changing the fiscal rules would bring greater- perspective and changing the fiscal. rules would bring greater confidence showed _ rules would bring greater confidence showed that — rules would bring greater confidence showed that the _ rules would bring greater confidence showed that the labour— rules would bring greater confidence showed that the labour party - rules would bring greater confidence showed that the labour party are i showed that the labour party are serious _ showed that the labour party are serious about _ showed that the labour party are serious about growth. _ showed that the labour party are serious about growth. you - showed that the labour party are serious about growth.— showed that the labour party are serious about growth. you have some broader polling _ serious about growth. you have some broader polling out _ serious about growth. you have some broader polling out today _ serious about growth. you have some broader polling out today as - serious about growth. you have some broader polling out today as well i serious about growth. you have some broader polling out today as well on l broader polling out today as well on voter intentions. let's take a look. again marie tidball, i know the only poll that matters is the general election but let's take a look! 50 election but let's take a look! so this is the standard voting intention polls that we ask every couple _ intention polls that we ask every couple of — intention polls that we ask every couple of weeks and what we have at, what we _ couple of weeks and what we have at, what we found is that the labour leader— what we found is that the labour leader over the conservatives has dropped — leader over the conservatives has dropped tojust one point, labour now and — dropped tojust one point, labour now and 29% and that is evidenced up on 28%~ _ now and 29% and that is evidenced up on 28%~ and — now and 29% and that is evidenced up on 28%. and reform uk also up on 19%~_ on 28%. and reform uk also up on i9%~ so— on 28%. and reform uk also up on 19%. so games for the conservative party— 19%. so games for the conservative party and _ 19%. so games for the conservative party and reform uk and the labour party and reform uk and the labour party down. one party and reform uk and the labour pa down. party and reform uk and the labour party down-— party down. one poll but that is a bit of a shocker _ party down. one poll but that is a bit of a shocker when _ party down. one poll but that is a bit of a shocker when you - party down. one poll but that is a bit of a shocker when you are i party down. one poll but that is a j bit of a shocker when you are less than 100 days in after a landslide

victory. than 100 days in after a landslide victo . , , , , victory. the biggest test is delivery and _ victory. the biggest test is delivery and in... - victory. the biggest test is delivery and in... that i victory. the biggest test is delivery and in... that is l victory. the biggest test is delivery and in... that is a j delivery and in... that is a shocker! _ delivery and in... that is a shocker! come _ delivery and in... that is a shocker! come on. - delivery and in... that is a shocker! come on. it i delivery and in... that is a l shocker! come on. it is one delivery and in... that is a i shocker! come on. it is one poll delivery and in... that is a - shocker! come on. it is one poll and we are 100 — shocker! come on. it is one poll and we are 100 days _ shocker! come on. it is one poll and we are 100 days in _ shocker! come on. it is one poll and we are 100 days in and _ shocker! come on. it is one poll and we are 100 days in and the - shocker! come on. it is one poll and we are 100 days in and the biggest i we are 100 days in and the biggest test is _ we are 100 days in and the biggest test is what — we are 100 days in and the biggest test is what we _ we are 100 days in and the biggest test is what we have _ we are 100 days in and the biggest test is what we have delivered i we are 100 days in and the biggest test is what we have delivered andj test is what we have delivered and if you _ test is what we have delivered and if you look— test is what we have delivered and if you look at — test is what we have delivered and if you look at the _ test is what we have delivered and if you look at the first 100 - test is what we have delivered and if you look at the first 100 days, i if you look at the first 100 days, we have — if you look at the first 100 days, we have a — if you look at the first 100 days, we have a surplus _ if you look at the first 100 days, we have a surplus promise i if you look at the first 100 days, we have a surplus promise 16 i if you look at the first 100 days, i we have a surplus promise 16 times in 16 different — we have a surplus promise 16 times in 16 different press _ we have a surplus promise 16 times in 16 different press releases- we have a surplus promise 16 times in 16 different press releases about| in 16 different press releases about banning _ in 16 different press releases about banning zombie _ in16 different press releases about banning zombie knives— in 16 different press releases about banning zombie knives and - in 16 different press releases about banning zombie knives and we've i banning zombie knives and we've already— banning zombie knives and we've already done _ banning zombie knives and we've already done that. _ banning zombie knives and we've already done that. so _ banning zombie knives and we've already done that.— banning zombie knives and we've already done that. so why then are ou 'ust already done that. so why then are you just one _ already done that. so why then are you just one percentage _ already done that. so why then are you just one percentage point i already done that. so why then are l you just one percentage point ahead of the tories? i you just one percentage point ahead of the tones?— you just one percentage point ahead of the tories? i will not comment on one oll of the tories? i will not comment on one poll which _ of the tories? i will not comment on one poll which may _ of the tories? i will not comment on one poll which may well— of the tories? i will not comment on one poll which may well be - of the tories? i will not comment on one poll which may well be an i one poll which may well be an outlier — one poll which may well be an outlier i_ one poll which may well be an outlier. ithink— one poll which may well be an outlier. i think the _ one poll which may well be an outlier. i think the key - one poll which may well be an outlier. i think the key thing l one poll which may well be an i outlier. i think the key thing that people _ outlier. i think the key thing that people outside _ outlier. i think the key thing that people outside the _ outlier. i think the key thing that people outside the westminsterl people outside the westminster bubble — people outside the westminster bubble want— people outside the westminster bubble want to _ people outside the westminster bubble want to see _ people outside the westminster bubble want to see is _ people outside the westminster bubble want to see is delivery. people outside the westminster i bubble want to see is delivery and when _ bubble want to see is delivery and when you — bubble want to see is delivery and when you look— bubble want to see is delivery and when you look at _ bubble want to see is delivery and when you look at all— bubble want to see is delivery and when you look at all the _ bubble want to see is delivery and when you look at all the work- bubble want to see is delivery and when you look at all the work that we've _ when you look at all the work that we've done — when you look at all the work that we've done getting _ when you look at all the work that we've done getting back— when you look at all the work that we've done getting back in- when you look at all the work that j we've done getting back in control of the _ we've done getting back in control of the buses, _ we've done getting back in control of the buses, making _ we've done getting back in control of the buses, making sure - we've done getting back in control of the buses, making sure that i we've done getting back in control. of the buses, making sure that would dealt with— of the buses, making sure that would dealt with some _ of the buses, making sure that would dealt with some nhs _ of the buses, making sure that would dealt with some nhs strikes, - of the buses, making sure that would dealt with some nhs strikes, making| dealt with some nhs strikes, making sure we _ dealt with some nhs strikes, making sure we are _ dealt with some nhs strikes, making sure we are bringing _ dealt with some nhs strikes, making sure we are bringing railways- dealt with some nhs strikes, making sure we are bringing railways back. sure we are bringing railways back into public— sure we are bringing railways back into public ownership, _ sure we are bringing railways back into public ownership, all- sure we are bringing railways back into public ownership, all these i into public ownership, all these things— into public ownership, all these things will— into public ownership, all these things will benefit _ into public ownership, all these things will benefit the - into public ownership, all these i things will benefit the electorate. i things will benefit the electorate. i leave _ things will benefit the electorate. i leave to — things will benefit the electorate. i leave to let _ things will benefit the electorate. i leave to let you _ things will benefit the electorate. i leave to let you answer - things will benefit the electorate. i leave to let you answer the i i leave to let you answer the outlier acquisition. brute i leave to let you answer the outlier acquisition.— i leave to let you answer the outlier acquisition. we are a long wa from

outlier acquisition. we are a long way from an _ outlier acquisition. we are a long way from an election _ outlier acquisition. we are a long way from an election but - outlier acquisition. we are a long way from an election but you i outlier acquisition. we are a longj way from an election but you talk outlier acquisition. we are a long i way from an election but you talk to the public— way from an election but you talk to the public and focus groups about what _ the public and focus groups about what is _ the public and focus groups about what is to — the public and focus groups about what is to find this government so far and _ what is to find this government so far and the — what is to find this government so far and the two things which come up either— far and the two things which come up either winter fuel allowance decision— either winter fuel allowance decision and the freebie story and the problem is that they've been allowed — the problem is that they've been allowed to dominate and not about some _ allowed to dominate and not about some of— allowed to dominate and not about some of the other positive stuff that you — some of the other positive stuff that you are talking about. let me ask a question _ that you are talking about. let me ask a question to _ that you are talking about. let me ask a question to luke _ that you are talking about. let me ask a question to luke tryll- that you are talking about. let me i ask a question to luke tryll because we think of tony blair getting the landslide and having amazing levels of support for quite a long time after 1997 election. does this results show a very serious collapse in support for this government, or does it show that keir starmer has a landslide in parliamentary seats but in the percentage share it was 33.7%. and he is not massively far off that. ~ ,,., , 33.7%. and he is not massively far offthat. ~ , ., , 33.7%. and he is not massively far offthat. , ., , a, off that. absolutely. tony blair came in with — off that. absolutely. tony blair came in with significant - off that. absolutely. tony blair came in with significant shares| off that. absolutely. tony blair i came in with significant shares of the vote — came in with significant shares of the vote and of seats and labour had this very— the vote and of seats and labour had this very efficient majority but they— this very efficient majority but they did — this very efficient majority but they did not come in with a big cushion — they did not come in with a big cushion that you normally get from new governments and it does not take

very much— new governments and it does not take very much for them to start to fall back _ very much for them to start to fall back so _ very much for them to start to fall back. so basically they did not have the wiggle — back. so basically they did not have the wiggle room to play with. you did ooollin the wiggle room to play with. you did polling to _ the wiggle room to play with. m. did polling to show the personal popularity of keir starmer has plummeted by 34 points which i think is an historic record.— is an historic record. there is no doubt this _ is an historic record. there is no doubt this has _ is an historic record. there is no doubt this has been _ is an historic record. there is no doubt this has been a _ is an historic record. there is no doubt this has been a short i doubt this has been a short honeymoon for keir starmer and the labour— honeymoon for keir starmer and the labour party. again they did not start _ labour party. again they did not start off — labour party. again they did not start off that popular and so it is fallen— start off that popular and so it is fallen from quite a low base. but guite _ fallen from quite a low base. but quite dramatically. i should say electorates around the world are much _ electorates around the world are much more volatile and if you want to carry on watching newsnight, please turn over to bbc two, or watch on iplayer. do stay with us here on bbc news for all the latest headlines in the us and around the world, from the team here in washington. i'm caitriona perry, in washington. this is bbc world news america.

benjamin netanyahu claims israel has killed the possible replacement for the head of hezbollah in lebanon — but israeli forces say they cannot confirm that. nowhere in beirut is safe from israeli strikes, says the city's mayor — as idf troops also move ground operations to south—west lebanon. hurricane milton strengthens back to a category five storm, as president biden warns it could be the worst to hit florida in a century. this is the sea and live in tampa bay as people evacuate ahead of the second ferocious storm in two weeks. and the man known as the "godfather of ai" wins this year's nobel prize in physics. welcome to world news america.

i'm caitriona perry.