and the other is from germany's innovation agency sharing ideas to help europe's biggest economy bounce out of the economic doldrums. also on the show, i'll be speaking with the boss of imd business school. it's taught some of the world's top chairmen and ceos. i'll explore with him how artificial intelligence could impact the world in uneven ways. wherever you'rejoining me from around the world, once again, a big hello and a warm welcome to the show. this week, we're taking a deep dive into the global economy. despite huge instability in recent years throughout the covid pandemic and the wars in ukraine and the middle east, much of the world is growing steadily, and that's despite the efforts of central banks in many regions putting up interest rates to cool down

spending and to control inflation. according to data from the international monetary fund, global growth this year is expected to reach around 3.2% and similar again in 2025. but it's not a uniform story around the world. emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow about two and a half times faster than advanced economies, but that's somewhat skewed by the world's two most populous countries. india's expecting the fastest growth of any major economy at 7%, while china is looking at growing 5% this year. meanwhile, it's also a mixed picture in the oecd advanced economies. the united states expects growth this year in the region of 2.6%, while in the eurozone, we're looking at a much more sluggish growth figure ofjust under 1%. well, that situation across the eu is now becoming a growing concern among

policymakers, including mario draghi, the former ecb chairman and italian prime minister recently tasked with identifying the obstacles to growth. growth has been slowing down for a long time in europe, but we've ignored it. we cannot ignore it any longer. now conditions have changed. world trade is slowing. china is actually slowing very much, but it's become much less open to us and actually, it's competing with us. now, let's take a look at the issues facing some of the world's other big economies. we'll be hearing from our correspondents in brazil and india, but let's go first to the world's biggest economy. here in the us, the debate rages over whether the economy is heading towards a soft landing, meaning the economy has slowed down enough to reduce inflation without causing a recession. gdp rose at a 3% annual rate in the second quarter, while inflation has steadily declined.

us stocks have taken the data in stride, trading around record highs. but despite market enthusiasm, many are urging caution, including jp morgan's jamie dimon and bridgewater�*s ray dalio. according to a recent survey by the national association for business economics, nearly 40% of professional forecasters say that a monetary policy mistake by the federal reserve is the biggest downside risk to the economy in the next year. 23% say next month's presidential election is the biggest risk, and an equal number cite the escalating conflict in the middle east. but these risk factors don't seem to have dented investor confidence here on wall street. after the united states, brazil is the second—biggest economy in the americas. its recent growth has been driven by a robust agribusiness sector, with brazil leading global exports in commodities such as soy, sugar, coffee, orange juice and cotton. with a territory nearly as big as europe, the country is also reaching minerals, ranking second to china in iron

ore production and also excelling in the production of copper, aluminium, niobium and other minerals. as the seventh most populous country, brazil represents a significant consumption market, fuelled recently by nearly record—low unemployment levels. brazil is also becoming increasingly attractive for foreign investments. however, during lula da silva's government, growth has also been bolstered by government spending, both on infrastructure and record high—money transfers to low—income families. but that's adding to public debt. the challenge here is to restore fiscal balance and tame persistent high inflation to sustain growth in the years ahead. here in india, there is a lot of optimism over its growth story, projected as a country drawing global attention as one of the fastest growing economies in the world and emerging global heavyweight which is poised to become the world's third largest economy by 2030. now, the world bank attributes this success to a lot of factors, like growing public infrastructure investment and household investment in real estate sectors. but there are also concerns.

despite having one of the largest young populations in the world, over 80% ofjobless indians are the country's youth. unemployment among india's educated youth remains a big concern, and also private consumption, which contributes over 60% to india's gdp, is yet to pick up. it is also important to address rising income inequalities because, according to estimates, the top i% of the country hold 40% of the country's wealth. so yes, there are bright sparks, but also areas where urgent policy intervention is required. now, my first guest is from a $4 trillion economy once regarded as the export powerhouse of europe. that is germany, of course, but its gdp growth this year is expected to be close to zero. let's explore what can be done to ramp things up. drjano costard, head of challenges at sprind in germany, thank you for joining us today. let's start by talking about sprind.

what is it that you and the rest of the people do there? sprind is the german federal agency for disruptive innovation, and what we do every day is fund and support potential breakthrough technologies. these are technologies that could really change our lives for the better — find solutions, for example, against climate change, against future pandemics. but what we really do there is fund them at very early stages where they still have a very high risk of actually failing, so that they can then be materialised and be invested in by private investors later on. is there any chance that germany has perhaps a particular problem with this kind of, fostering this kind of entrepreneurship? i think it's a problem or a difficulty that we see in many areas around the world. it's not unique to germany that we need to support breakthrough innovation through public institutions. but germany has, even though they have a very strong

position in research so far, been not as successful as other regions in the world to actually make viable businesses and produce products and services based on really great discoveries from sciences. so yes, i think there is a particular need in germany and other parts of europe as well to foster more support in that area. do you see a risk that perhaps the world of, of innovation, of disruption, has become too dominated by, by the united states? i think that's the case because the more ideas we can build on, the more likely we are to actually find solutions for the grand challenges of our time. if we would just leave it to the us or other regions of the world to find solutions, we would kind of abandon a big part of the potential that we have in europe and that we could foster. and for the european union as a whole, recently, the former italian prime

minister mario draghi published i think it's really bad situation. europe is a scientific and technological powerhouse but we need to be better in commercialising this technology we need to create our own role models based on european values i think we can do that if we address the topic. what all of them have in common is excellent in their field. what we need in addition to thatis what we need in addition to that is really a high drive for generating impact. the way that they will need to go is very long, it's complicated. unless they have the drive and the will to really create an impact it will be very hard for them

to sustain the career and the path to drive. for to sustain the career and the path to drive.— to sustain the career and the path to drive. for the european union as a _ path to drive. for the european union as a whole, _ path to drive. for the european union as a whole, recently - path to drive. for the european union as a whole, recently the | union as a whole, recently the former italian by minister very dramatic terms about the choices facing europe what are your thoughts about the challenges facing europe as an economy?— challenges facing europe as an econom ? �*, ., ., ., economy? he's pointed out a lot of important _ economy? he's pointed out a lot of important topics _ economy? he's pointed out a lot of important topics that - economy? he's pointed out a lot of important topics that we - of important topics that we need to address in europe. another point he made his we need substantially more funding for science innovation. while that's true he's also referring to one that we need to think hard about how we actually do funding. we need to make sure that money is spent effectively and reaches the innovative sector as well. i and reaches the innovative sector as well.— sector as well. i know your organisation _ sector as well. i know your organisation is _ sector as well. i know your organisation is challenge l organisation is challenge finding solutions across a variety of sectors from climate, tech to energy. i wonder what you think the most important sector is, the most

important sector is, the most important driver for important sector is, the most important driverfor a important sector is, the most important driver for a country will be to win in those global competitive states. i think the combination of clean and abundant and cheap energy is a key driver of future economic performance, as well as advances in al and computing to drive the service sector. plus, what we really see is how much more important health is becoming. we might think that we in the western world have solved so many health issues, this is really a topic that has been covered, but it's really driving productivity in the long run, not least, as we have seen, with covid. that really brought the world to a really quick halt when it came to economic growth. drjano costard, head of challenges at sprind, thank you so much for your time today. thank you. let's turn now to the united states. my next guestjoins me from her home state of california, but she spends most of her time

here in the uk, where she helps business leaders navigate the challenges of trading with the world's biggest economy. allyson stewart—allen, chief executive of international marketing partners, welcome to talking business. why is it that so many of the companies that really capture the modern age, the googles, metas, the amazons, even the 0penai, the company of the future, have been born in the us rather than other markets? i think what's particular to the us market and the us business culture is risk—taking, uh, experimentation. we reward persistence, we reward the failures, oddly enough, and european business cultures generally, that's not so acceptable even now. so i think that is something in our dna in the united states that makes businesses like those so successful. but also, we think about scale.

you know, one of the things that's really interesting is if you're in a market and you're born in a market of 330—some—odd million people, you immediately start thinking about, how are we going to capture that size of opportunity? so, how can europe try to fix that? try to... ..create that greater appetite for risk? culture is glacial in its pace of change, and getting to a more open, more risk—taking approach is going to take quite a long time. so, investors are more happy to give bigger sums and to take bigger risks since 30—something years ago. but we're not there yet. i think they need to accept that failure and not succeeding is part of the process. you know, no company —

think about some of the greats that have been successful around the world — none of them have been successful on their first attempt. they have all tested and learned, tried something, learned something, improved. so, you advise businesses on taking their product and selling it in other markets. what tips do you have for your clients to expand their customer base beyond their home market? i think the first thing that's key for these companies that are looking at international expansion is that they're absolutely clear what's core in the offering, whether it's a product or a service. what do we replicate everywhere, and what do we have to localise? and that thinking, of integrating the global and the local, is really a determinant of success. doing a pure copy—paste is never going to work. looking a bit more at the macro

side of things with up the uk has grown very weak at the moment. i must is not seven points at this year. what does that mean? does that mean the uk is struggling to innovate? interestingly, no. if you look at the incredible inventive from british companies, a are so many examples of british companies that are doing well and have done well in local markets. it's not an issue about the pipeline of innovation, i think it's an issue of the commercialisation side. how do we commercially exploit these opportunities? you're sitting on these great assets that are sellable around the globe. what they need our networks, they need infrastructure, they need a global mindset to be ready to succeed in these global markets. some of it's about the leadership talent and education around leadership for the british investment in

leadership development and leadership development and leadership education is one of the lowest in europe and in the world. few educated leaders on how to be more agile, how to have a battle global mindset, understand how to commercially exploit, i think that is when those scalable companies sees the world. i believe in education as you can obviously tell. allyson, there is effectively a trade war under way between the us and china, which includes tariffs and embargoes on certain key products. who do you think is winning and losing from that trade war? it's a very fluid, dynamic situation. it's really about — and certainly through the lens of the us, they're trying to protect certain industries, such as electric vehicles, to make sure that certain sectors aren't sort of inundated with cheaper imports.

the challenge, however, is when you apply, you know, protections for a certain sector, you also alienate the rest of the world, because you are not inviting them to compete in the american marketplace. now, no market is perfect. regulation is required to ensure some degree of fairness and control of your own economy. but, you know, nothing lasts forever, so i think we'rejust going to have to wait and see how this plays out. economic forecasters believe that, by the end of this century, china and india will have overtaken the united states as the world's number one economy. do you think there's anything that can stop that, or is it inevitable? well, nothing's inevitable — and nothing's forever. so, if we work on the basis of those two principles, then the us should be, you know, developing even more trade relationships. the us business culture, at its heart, is about transacting, not necessarily

around partnering. and that's going to require a new way of working for american business leaders, government leaders, to think about how we have a partnership that lasts decades, rather than lurches from election to election. allyson stewart—allen, thank you for talking business with me today. thank you very much, tadgh. 0ne one of the big differentiators between a successful economy is how well they compete on enterprise, trade and talent. the country that outperforms all others is a tiny island of singapore. home to asia business. let's hearfrom our corresponded there. the business. let's hear from our corresponded there.- corresponded there. the imd world competitors _ corresponded there. the imd world competitors and - corresponded there. the imd world competitors and see i world competitors and see placing right at the top is apologetic and laws typically seen as pro—business. the corporate tax rate is just i7%. the government offers incentives to set up shop here.

another factor, anotherfactor, highly another factor, highly skilled workforce. anotherfactor, highly skilled workforce. the best of the world with a low income taxes and quality factors also help to attract top—tier talent from all over the world. some of the fastest broadband speeds as well. there are no power cats, internet cuts or labour strikes here. it offers a more predictable business environment that is regional neighbours with it by having the same party in powerfor more than 50 years the government has been able to be relentless in pursuing a business environment is stable and friendly. however, there are challenges on the horizon, including how to enact the gate disruptive technologies like ai for the geopolitical tensions in the region also. my for the geopolitical tensions in the region also.— in the region also. my final cuest in the region also. my final guest today _ in the region also. my final guest today runs _ in the region also. my final| guest today runs a business school with campuses both in singapore and switzerland. the two countries it claims are leading the way both on

competitiveness and as magnets for global talent. president of the international institute for management development, welcome to talking business was up thank you, great to be here. we've been looking at global growth. figs we've been looking at global urowth. �* , we've been looking at global urowth. a ., , growth. as emerging economies outace growth. as emerging economies outpace europe _ growth. as emerging economies outpace europe and the - growth. as emerging economies outpace europe and the us - growth. as emerging economies outpace europe and the us with| outpace europe and the us with their growth do you think there's anything that can stop there's anything that can stop the economic reordering of the world? ., .., ., , the economic reordering of the world? ., ., , , world? the global economy is very tight _ world? the global economy is very tight name-mack. - world? the global economy is| very tight name-mack. certain very tight name—mack. certain markets and economies rise and fall again. markets and economies rise and fallagain. 0f markets and economies rise and fall again. of course we see this across the years. clearly is much more challenging for wealthy economies like the european ones to grow at the rates in places like india, southeast asia. clearly our economies have been growing too slowly. we need to find ways of reinvigorating them to kids feetin reinvigorating them to kids feet in fact flew back effectively with those more dynamic places.— dynamic places. europe in particular— dynamic places. europe in particular has _ dynamic places. europe in particular has been - particular has been asking questions of it's also why it's

growth is particularly logging in global rivals china, us, the former italian prime minister has been challenged with that. what do you think the answer is to european growth? we what do you think the answer is to european growth?— to european growth? we made many mistakes, _ to european growth? we made many mistakes, particularly i to european growth? we made| many mistakes, particularly the past 15 years while other economies have been investing in education and science and infrastructure. innovation, we have been very conservative in our approach. have been very conservative in ourapproach. certainly this our approach. certainly this school stability ourapproach. certainly this school stability is very important. we've lost or missed opportunities to invest for the future and it shows. i think if you it starts to get with investment. an investment in education and infrastructure, innovation and ultimately in competitiveness. well, more broadly, david, we're braced for what they call the fourth industrial revolution — that's the impact

of artificial intelligence. i know it's something that you've been looking at at imd business school, and i wonder if you think that could affect the pace at which different parts of the world are performing? absolutely, so we're very excited about artificial intelligence and the productivity growth that it can unlock. of course, what matters is not the technology. as always, it's about how organisations actually use that technology — how thoughtful are they? do they find ways of accelerating innovation and reducing, for example, innovation cycles, creating more value for customers, driving productivity as a whole? so, there are lots of opportunities. you know, there's this sort of saying that al will not replace you, but ai will replace those who don't know how to use ai. and i think the same can be said for organisations. ai doesn't put you out of business, but if you don't use ai effectively, then you might be falling behind. if we're looking at the competition for talent — the kind of talent that comes out of your business school — your world talent ranking puts

switzerland and singapore among the most successful in attracting that talent. what is their secret? it's a number of factors that our ranking looks at. so, again, it looks at the labour market conditions, it looks at the education system, it looks also at, you know, governance as a whole. and, you know, those are economies — and if you look at some of the others on that list, you look at sweden, you look at luxembourg, look at norway — very open economies, economies that have maintained a lot of social cohesion and social capital, while they have continued to open themselves to global competition. for many years, an mba was seen as an essential way of getting that top job, either as a chief executive or as a founder. is that still the same? so, the mba remains the most successful global postgraduate degree. mba education has to evolve — here at imd, it's changing in profound ways. we're incorporating ai

into the curriculum, using ai as a pedagogical tool, but also helping our students understand how to use these technologies responsibly and effectively. but the world is changing really, really fast. and so, it's clearly not sufficient to finish your education when you're 28 or 30, or32, and then, hope you can ride that through the rest of your career. so much of what we do at imd is, we continue to work with executives, we upskill people throughout their careers. we're really a lifelong learning partner. what are the changes are you making sure they're ready for the business world today? it won't surprise you very much, sustainability has become absolutely essential to what we do in our programme and is woven into all of our courses from marketing to finance, to accounting to operations. is not a nice to have it's an

absolute must have. the companies who recruit our students want to make sure our graduates actually have those skills. the second one is, look, geopolitics and macro economics are topics that for the last couple of years, perhaps the last 15 years or so were not as prevalent and prominent in curriculum and they are back. and they are back because we need leaders who understand the broad geopolitical and geo— economic context. we've been talking a lot today, david, about competition between different countries, different markets. and i wonder if you think we're perhaps t? oo focused on talking about which countries the best ideas come from. should we be thinking more globally and celebrating innovation wherever it comes from? yeah, so this is one of the, you know, big challenges, right? the beauty of competition, of course, is that it grows — when set up properly and regulated properly — is that it grows the pie overall. if we want to tackle

the challenges in front of us — you know, decarbonising the global economy, lifting more people out of poverty and making the world more inclusive, deploying technologies responsibly — we need cooperation, but we also need competition among the best ideas. and if there is a company in a faraway place that has figured out a more effective way of doing things, we all benefit from that. david bach, president of imd business school, thank you for talking business with me today. pleasure, thank you. well, that's it for this week. i do hope you enjoyed the show. don't forget, you can keep up with the latest on our global economy on the bbc website, or on the smartphone app. you can also give me a follow on social media if you like. i'm... thank you for watching. i will catch you again soon. bye— bye. hello. it's been an unsettled start to the weekend,

with low pressure pushing several bands of rain southwards across the uk on saturday, but we did manage some spells of sunshine between these successive areas of rain. it was a mild day, particularly across southern areas of england and wales. top temperatures reached 17 degrees, but in cardiff we've got a drop of four degrees celsius on the way as we head into sunday. low pressure then clears off out of the way. a ridge of high pressure follows, bringing a better day for many of us on sunday. however, it is going to be a chilly old start to the day underneath these clearing skies, temperatures are dropping like a stone at the moment. we've got a few showers coming and going across the far north coast of wales, parts of coastal cheshire and into northern areas of scotland, but otherwise it's dry. lowest temperatures heading into sunday morning, about minus threee degrees celsius. so, a cold start to the day then for sunday. but underneath this ridge but underneath this ridge of high pressure, a lot of fine weather and for some a fine of high pressure, a lot of fine sunrise, some of this high cloud in the west getting cloud in the west getting illuminated by the rising sun. through the day, well, illuminated by the rising sun.

there probably will be a few patches of rain getting patches of rain getting into northern ireland into northern ireland and western scotland, and western scotland, but nothing particularly heavy but nothing particularly heavy in the afternoon. in the afternoon. and for the most part, and for the most part, i think temperatures will probably reach around ten i think temperatures to 13 celsius. well, that takes us into sunday well, that takes us into sunday night and we're looking at a more substantial pulse night and we're looking of rain as a weak area of low pressure scoots its way pressure scoots its way eastwards across england and eastwards across england and wales. wales. scotland and northern ireland having largely dry weather with a few mist and fog patches with a few mist and fog patches and again a few and again a few patches of frost. patches of frost. one of the sunniest places. into monday, the worst of the rain will clear away from central and eastern england, but it might well stay damp, even well stay damp, even into the afternoon, for some. into the afternoon, for some. the best of the weather the best of the weather on monday for scotland and northern ireland, on monday for scotland where it should stay dry with spells of sunshine. with spells of sunshine. if anything, temperatures if anything, temperatures coming up by an odd degree or so, and generally getting coming up by an odd degree close to or a little bit above average for the time of year. average for the time of year. tuesday looks like being a drier day for all of us. however, there's likely to be quite a lot of low cloud first thing. low cloud first thing. some mist and fog some mist and fog patches around as well. patches around as well. probably see a few bright probably see a few bright or sunny spells breaking through that, particularly or sunny spells breaking

to the north of high ground, so northern scotland might be so northern scotland might be one of the sunniest places. and edinburgh, a 17 for cardiff and for london. it gets even milder into the middle portion of the week, going to be quite wet and at times really quite windy. bye for now.

hello, i'm carl nasman. us defense secretary lloyd austin has told his israeli counterpart that he's concerned over reports that israeli forces fired on un peacekeeping positions in lebanon. the messaging from secretary austin comes as a fifth soldierfrom unifil — the un peacekeeping mission in southern lebanon — has reportedly been wounded. it's not yet known who is responsible for the fire. the incident took place at the un base in naqoura, near the border between israel and lebanon. four un peacekeepers were wounded in previous incidents, which unifil blamed on israeli forces. meanwhile, the lebanon health ministry says at least 15 people have been killed in israeli strikes in different parts of the country. one of the targets was deir billa, in northern lebanon, which had not been hit before.