england stay away from the rain, maybe, and temperatures could still reach the low 205. however, for most of the uk, more typically, temperatures are going to be into the upper teens. it will be wet and quite a windy kind of day. by thursday, that rain will have cleared out into the near continent, and there could be one or two mist and fog patches to start off the day, but a much better chance of seeing at least a bit of sunshine. a few showers popping up into the afternoon, particularly for scotland and northern ireland, maybe an odd one for western parts of england and wales as well. temperatures still on the mild side — 17 in aberdeen, in newcastle and cardiff, we're up to 18 and 19 for london and for norwich respectively. friday, a very windy kind of day, with gales developing across western areas, more heavy rain on the cards. and into the weekend, it stays wet and windy too, with the heaviest rain and strongest winds in the north—west.

hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. eight years on from the infamous "steele dossier" which alleged russian influence over donald trump — the former m16 officer behind the document has released a new book, revealing he still has concerns about the republican presidential nominee.

we are into the final sprint of the us election campaign. both kamala harris and donald trump, campaigning tonight in the key swing state of pennsylvania. with plenty of evidence that the race is tightening. a new national poll from abc ipsos has the two neck and neck within the margin of error — harris on 50%, trump on 48%. in september in that same poll she had a lead of six points — 52—46. similar picture in the nbc poll released sunday, the two candidates tied on 48%, a month ago she was five points ahead — 49—44. still, it is the polling average we should be looking at, this is sss/abc, it still has her three ahead of her republican rival. and in the battleground states she has a slender advantage. she is ahead in wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan and nevada, donald trump with a slight advantage in north carolina, georgia and arizona. but fair to say that

in the past few weeks donald trump's rhetoric has been getting darker. this was him on friday in colorado. we have the outside enemy — so you can say china, you can say russia, you can say kim jong—un. you can say, but that's not... it'll be fine. if you have a smart president, no problem. it's the enemy from within. all the scum that we have to deal with that hate our country. that's a bigger enemy than china and russia. cheering. i think it's fair to say that there are a lot of people outside the united states who look at that and they scratch their head wondering why the normal rules of campaigning do not apply to donald trump. yeah, but it's last week in washington i felt the sense of despair. trump says all of these things, the consequence

is that 90% of what you get from the media, it is first trump's lies and then the liberals and democrats are trying to clarify that is lying, and as a consequence 90% of voters written in the post is about trump. and harris is completely disappeared. people don't know what she stands for, it does not... is not they like or dislike her, it's that they don't see her.— don't see her. the feeling, justin, don't see her. the feeling, justin. is — don't see her. the feeling, justin. is if— don't see her. the feeling, justin, is if there _ don't see her. the feeling, justin, is if there was - don't see her. the feeling, justin, is if there was an i justin, is if there was an election today he would probably just election today he would probablyjust naked and there are signs that he's ahead now in wisconsin, it's very, very close in pennsylvania. and he's ahead in arizona, georgia and north carolina. what do you think would be the implication

of that, another trump presidency, a second term? i would say, by the way, look at the betting markets and their is a lot— the betting markets and their is a lot of— the betting markets and their is a lot of money, that could be partisan supporters putting their— be partisan supporters putting their money where their mouth is, couldn't it? no—one really knows— is, couldn't it? no—one really knows because it's not exactly a campaign is focused on the issues, — a campaign is focused on the issues, as— a campaign is focused on the issues, as you just showed from that sound — issues, as you just showed from that sound bite. the hope is that— that sound bite. the hope is that foreign—policy i think wouldn't be quite as crazy as some — wouldn't be quite as crazy as some people are concerned it is, and — some people are concerned it is, and as_ some people are concerned it is, and as you say christopher steele, — is, and as you say christopher steele, russia has something on donald _ steele, russia has something on donald trump and that would affect — donald trump and that would affect policy towards ukraine, given — affect policy towards ukraine, given the conversation we had earlier, — given the conversation we had earlier, with russia telling ukraine _ earlier, with russia telling ukraine to give up territory and — ukraine to give up territory and just— ukraine to give up territory and just stop fighting, you can certainly— and just stop fighting, you can certainly support that problem really — certainly support that problem really quickly but not in a way that's— really quickly but not in a way that's favourable for world affairs _ that's favourable for world affairs and i think that's one of the — affairs and i think that's one of the greatest concerns people have _ of the greatest concerns people have in — of the greatest concerns people have in the international stage is what — have in the international stage is what will happen with ukraine, what will happen with the middle east and iran, in those —

the middle east and iran, in those circumstances? so i think. _ those circumstances? so i think, you know, saying that's what — think, you know, saying that's what we're _ think, you know, saying that's what we're looking at outside the country people in the us are very— the country people in the us are very worried about freedoms and trends, abortion is a very hot issue _ and trends, abortion is a very hot issue there after what's happened before and the trend that might be taken, they're cattihg — that might be taken, they're calling it _ that might be taken, they're calling it project 20 of 25 for, _ calling it project 20 of 25 for, saying that's what democrats fear is the sort of lurch — democrats fear is the sort of lurch toward those things. so there — lurch toward those things. so there is— lurch toward those things. so there is a _ lurch toward those things. so there is a lot of trepidation around _ there is a lot of trepidation around that, i think there's a lot of— around that, i think there's a lot of uncertainty. i think what _ lot of uncertainty. i think what we _ lot of uncertainty. i think what we can guess is trump coming _ what we can guess is trump coming back in after what happened before, be a much more vindictive — happened before, be a much more vindictive trump as shown by the rhetoric here, much more aggressive, less reason to play by the — aggressive, less reason to play by the rules. aggressive, less reason to play by the rules— by the rules. there are some interesting — by the rules. there are some interesting comments - by the rules. there are some| interesting comments coming from people who work for donald trump in the first menstruation, one of them comes from the general the chair of thejoint chiefs, he is quoted in bob woodward's book, he was

pretty well respected, particularly these books he puts out at the end of a presidential term and mark millie says that in his view, trump is the most dangerous person in the country, he's the most dangerous ever he says, and he goes on to say, i had suspicions when i talk to you about his mental decline and so forth, but now i realise he's a total fascist, forth, but now i realise he's a totalfascist, he is now the most dangerous person to this country, a fascist to the core. this is a man who was very senior within the white house, advised both donald trump and joe biden, who knows him better than most, and he's come to the conclusion that he is a danger to the country. but it doesn't seem to me that congressional republicans pay any attention to those kind of warnings. it’s to those kind of warnings. it's very striking _ to those kind of warnings. it�*s very striking as you say, generally there are dozens of former top officials under trump who are now taking

similar positions and are dead against him. when trump came in in the 2017 there was a lot of talk about the grown—ups in the room, most of these grown—ups in the room kind of disappeared and trump has a very different group of people around him now that are the ones trump, allows trump to be trump, so we shouldn't expect him to attempt to hold that, if it would be that he holds back, it will be that he holds back, it will be that trump doesn't like to be consistent, he likes to be quite erratic and has a strong reputation to act to the device that he has received from the last person he talked to. so the inconsistency might be the salvation, but i'm very

worried. i should say, i am a us citizen and i have already put down my vote in washington, dc where it has no importance whatsoever in the last election, five and a half percent of population in washington, dc that will vote for trump. washington, dc that will vote for trump-— for trump. yes, it won't be decided — for trump. yes, it won't be decided in _ for trump. yes, it won't be decided in the _ for trump. yes, it won't be decided in the district - for trump. yes, it won't be decided in the district of i decided in the district of columbia that we can safely say. we talked about christopher steele if you are watching in the last hour. if you were watching in the last hour you will know we have been talking to the former mi6 intelligence officer, christopher steele about his new book which hasjust been published in the united states. it is his memoir of what happened back in 2016. and why he still has some confidence in the central thrust of the intelligence work he did. the so called "steele dossier" has been largely discounted in american circles, despite the fact special counsel robert mueller discovered "numerous links between the russian government and the trump campaign". including his campaign chair paul manafort who had secretly worked for a russian

billionaire with a plan to "greatly benefit the putin government". here's steele explaining why he felt it necessary to document his side of the story, three weeks from the election. the threat that is posed by russia and other hostile authoritarian states has not gone away. in fact, it's evolved, it's developed, it's spread, i would argue, to a range of other countries like china and iran who weren't in on it to begin with. there are probably four main thrusts to the dossier, and it's important to remember that none of these were accepted wisdom at the time. the first was that there was a major russian interference campaign into the us election going on. the second was that it was funded and supported and ordered by the leadership — putin. the third was that it was designed notjust to sow doubts about democracy in america, but deliberately to support one candidate, donald trump, in that particular election. and finally, that there were elements of collusion between people in the trump campaign and people in russia, in the government. and i think all of those main strands stand up well over time, and everything that's

come out since really kind of supports that, including recent things like the supposed phone calls between trump and putin that have been going on since he left office. this is in woodward's book, including things like trump saying in front of zelensky the other day that he had a close relationship with vladimir putin, which is pretty shocking when you consider that putin is an indicted war criminal. what we learned, justin, from the bookjust the other day is that he sent in 2020 coated machines to vladimir putin for his own personal use. i was confirmed by the criminal last week. —— covid machines. i've come to know christopher steele since 2016 at he's been a panelist on this programme. his central motivation wasn't political. in terms of donald trump it was actually as a

former head of mi six, the concerns he saw in russian interference in the 2016 election which we know have been borne out.— election which we know have been borne out. absolutely, and ve few been borne out. absolutely, and very few peeple _ been borne out. absolutely, and very few people know _ been borne out. absolutely, and very few people know russia - very few people know russia better— very few people know russia better than he would, i have the confidence in the sources he worked with. and of course the dossier he released lacked any nuances of human sourced reporting — any nuances of human sourced reporting like that, but we sort — reporting like that, but we sort of— reporting like that, but we sort of seen the trend to be exposed _ sort of seen the trend to be exposed and what details are in that dossier, i think without a doubt, — that dossier, i think without a doubt, we _ that dossier, i think without a doubt, we see this pattern daity~ _ doubt, we see this pattern daily. you can see it openly and — daily. you can see it openly and disinformation, misinformation on social media, these _ misinformation on social media, these are — misinformation on social media, these are all attempts, it depends how severe you want to -et depends how severe you want to get whether there is... depends how severe you want to get whetherthere is... he wants— get whetherthere is... he wants to _ get whetherthere is... he wants to show that response of disinformation toward our population and population of the us— population and population of the us around election, that's -ot the us around election, that's got to— the us around election, that's got to be _ the us around election, that's got to be called interference, reatty~ — got to be called interference, really. different shades of the same — really. different shades of the same thing. but without a

doubt, _ same thing. but without a doubt, strong russian interest, it's going — doubt, strong russian interest, it's going to be exactly as they— it's going to be exactly as they now and i'm sure plenty will come _ they now and i'm sure plenty will come out after this election. so much noise about this that — election. so much noise about this that it— election. so much noise about this that it comes very hard to find _ this that it comes very hard to find the — this that it comes very hard to find the truth within all is that— find the truth within all is that there must be quite hard for someone like christopher steele — for someone like christopher steele who had worked on this and have — steele who had worked on this and have faith in the sort of reporting _ and have faith in the sort of reporting a saw.— and have faith in the sort of reporting a saw. returning to the election _ reporting a saw. returning to the election of— reporting a saw. returning to the election of software - reporting a saw. returning to the election of software into l the election of software into the election of software into the final home stretch, three weeks now. what do you think will be the difference? if they are, as the polls would suggest, statistically tied, is there a moment or something that one of these candidates could say that would dip it in their direction? i could say that would dip it in their direction?— their direction? i feel now it is simply — their direction? i feel now it is simply trump _ their direction? i feel now it is simply trump is - their direction? i feel now it is simply trump is drowning j is simply trump is drowning everything and it's the... 0f trump that is winning the election for him right now, turning the tide right now. i

doubt that there will be any scandals such of the matter, all the scandals of trump are already out and i don't think there are any scandals on harris to be found, and perhaps the trump campaign would even find it negative to bring out scandals about harris because that would give her more attention to her, so that is really an attention grabbing campaign and this is what trump really is a master at.— really is a master at. yeah, he excels at _ really is a master at. yeah, he excels at that, _ really is a master at. yeah, he excels at that, it _ really is a master at. yeah, he excels at that, it is _ really is a master at. yeah, he excels at that, it is a - really is a master at. yeah, he excels at that, it is a policy - excels at that, it is a policy light election, it is in the policy issues people are choosing, it is character and who they feel might handle the economy better, that is certainly something that shines through in the polling. we will take a short break, we'll be right back after this with time for the panel, do stay with

now it's time for the panel. what if we got, i think about three and a half minutes to get through a couple stories, let's start with you, you've just written a piece on the russian economy, in your opinion if it are numbered. it’s economy, in your opinion if it are numbered.— are numbered. it's the editor that sets _ are numbered. it's the editor that sets the _ are numbered. it's the editor that sets the headline. - are numbered. it's the editor that sets the headline. yes, | are numbered. it's the editorj that sets the headline. yes, i know that- — that sets the headline. yes, i know that. my _ that sets the headline. yes, i know that. my main - that sets the headline. yes, i | know that. my main argument that sets the headline. yes, i i know that. my main argument is that russia's _ know that. my main argument is that russia's financial _ that russia's financial reserves are likely to run out at the end of next year and that at the end of next year an