almost 5000 stories are not unique. almost 5000 people a year are affected by death or seriously injured as a result of a young driver. a seven—year—old boy is killed in an explosion in newcastle — six others are taken to hospital. aid trucks head into northern gaza amid dire warnings at the un about the humanitarian situation there. and who's won this year's riba award for the uk's best architechture? we'll be revealing all. 0n newsnight at 10.30 tonight, we'll bring you fresh insight on the stories of the day with big interviews and our regular panel of newsnighters, and of course look at what the papers are saying about tomorrow's news. good evening. inflation fell by far more than expected last month — down to 1.7%, the lowest rate in three and a half years.

city analysts are now predicting that the bank of england could cut interest rates twice by christmas. the lower than expected inflation rate has also sparked concerns about the impact on some of britain's poorest families. 0ur economics editor faisal islam is here to explain. thank you, sophie. a good news surprise for the economy, as airline fares and fuel prices actually fell, it could mean a softer landing for the uk economy from this giant hump of inflation — going to double digits as the economy was hit by multiple global crises. well, in september, the pace of price rises has slowed to its lowest rate in three years. in fact, to below the bank of england 5 target rate of 2%, at 1.7%. and that is perhaps the biggest consequence for you of for you of today's inflation figures is on interest rates — it helps these people at the bank of england go for rate cuts, probably faster now than expected, with markets expecting two cuts this

year, bringing rates down to 4.5% by the end of the year. but that high inflation shock has left a permanent scar on the cost of living. a higher level of everyday prices over the past three years. at this food pantry in liverpool, weekly food baskets are subsidised, workers and customers alike. so the need is still high and increases in benefits don't make up for it. 0ur money hasn't increased. so... it may not be in a cost of living crisis any more officially, but at ground zero, we are still in that crisis. the shops, like, prices go sky—high. what can 2% do really? not much. there's a direct impact of today's inflation number on benefits and tax credits. it normally sets next april's increase, so up 1.7%, that compares to the state pension going up 4.1% under the more generous triple lock policy.

for a typical adult universal credit recipient, that is about £7 a month extra. whereas a single pensioner under the triple lock gets £39 extra a month under the full new state pension. the overall benefits bill is one of the types of spending under pressure ahead of the budget. the minister in charge especially wants to rein in the ballooning cost of people too sick to work. i want to see those costs coming down because i want to have people able to work, to get on in their work, which is good for them, it's good for companies, too. all this ahead of a tough budget. the mood music from the treasury is of a bigger budget hole than was expected, approaching £40 billion a year. faisal is with me now. £40 billion black hole. we have been hearing 22 billion recently, explained the difference. billion recently, explained the difference-—

difference. this has not been ublicl difference. this has not been publicly referred _ difference. this has not been publicly referred to, - difference. this has not been publicly referred to, it - difference. this has not been publicly referred to, it is - publicly referred to, it is essentially 22 billion plus an account of what the treasury thinks it will take to get spending back to normal. the previous government made assumptions that this government was unrealistic about public spending and to get that back up to what is normal standard, that is what we're talking about and that would be the gap that would have to be raised by taxes because they are not allowed to borrow money for this day—to—day spending. that is what we are talking about and the consequence of all that is what we are seeing tonight, a deadline, the major measures deadline, all the big items in the budget have to be signed off tonight to be sent to the official forecaster and that means knife edge negotiations with big government departments, letters being sent with some of those cabinet ministers not happy with some of the tight spending. but the treasury adamant that their budget will mean tough spending settlements, tough on welfare. . ~

spending settlements, tough on welfare. ., ~ , ., and victoria derbyshire will be looking ahead to the budget on newsnight on bbc two at 10.30. tonight, cabinet sources tell newsnight about anxieties over the scale of spending cuts in some government departments in rachel reeves' first budget. our team discuss what it could mean for you. and could weight—loss drugs like ozempic help save the nhs? newsnight is on bbc two, bbc news and iplayer in 25 minutes. the mother of a teenager who died with three friends when their car overturned in north wales has called for the law to be changed to stop young newly qualified drivers carrying passengers. the inquest into their deaths heard that the car came off the road and landed in a flooded ditch. all four boys — who were sixth form college students from shrewsbury — drowned. from the inquest, our wales correspondent, hywel griffith reports. the sharp, sweeping bend where last november,

four lives ended suddenly when a car left the road. 16—year—old jevon hirst, harvey owen and wilf fitchett, both 17, and 18—year—old hugo morris were college friends who had come to north wales for a weekend in the mountains. when the boys didn't arrive home, a search was launched. their car was eventually spotted overturned in the flooded ditch, two days after it had crashed. the conditions on that day were wet. there were leaves on the road, but a crash investigator told the inquest that the accident had been avoidable. he believed the driver, hugo morris, had been going around the bend too quickly and lost control, even though he was well below the speed limit of 60 miles an hour. harvey owen's mother told the inquest her son had been flourishing in life, loving music and playing his guitar. she believes young drivers shouldn't be allowed to carry passengers of the same age and wants licensing laws changed. i will miss him every second of every day, and ache to see his beautiful face,

to hear his soft and gentle voice, and feel his warm embrace for the rest of my life. but it would give me reassurance that my girls will be less at risk and will help stop so many of these preventable deaths and save other people having to live with this pain. after the accident, vigils were held to remember the four boys. their deaths struck a chord with families across the uk. today, the coroner said she too was worried about the laws for young drivers and their passengers, and would write to the department for transport to raise her concerns. hywel griffith, bbc news, caernarfon. a jury has been told that a 10—year—old girl who allegedly died at the hands of relatives she was living with had more than 70 new external injuries when her body was found. sara sharif was also found with internal injuries and wounds inflicted before the assault which led to her death at the family home in woking in surrey, last year. herfather, stepmother and uncle

have all denied murder. a seven—year—old boy has died following an explosion at a house in newcastle in the early hours of this morning. three houses, which were divided into flats, have been destroyed. six people have been taken to hospital and a number of others have been evacuated from their homes. fiona trott reports. it used to be a family home. this is all that's left, an empty space at the heart of a city centre community. they were woken by this. a huge fire that forced people out of their homes. neighbours described what they saw. we saw a big flash. i think it was the explosion in the windows, and after that, all the fire goes outside. and after that, i think it's a car orsomething, but after that is the smell. and it was the house. it was a massive shock. then at lunchtime, the news they all feared. a seven—year—old boy had died.

it is with great sadness that i stand in front of you today following the tragic death of a young child. an investigation is ongoing to establish how the explosion occurred. we will continue to piece together what has happened so we can provide answers to the family as well as the wider community. this has been really upsetting for everybody here. the idea of a family sleep and a little boy losing his life in an explosion overnight. it was soon declared a major incident involving specialist teams. search and rescue workers have been here throughout the day. gas engineers have been working here too, helping the police and fire service with their investigations, which will continue for some time. how did this happen? it's something everybody here is asking about and worrying about, and having to explain to their own children tonight. fiona trott, bbc news, newcastle.

the us envoy to the united nations says washington is watching israel's actions on the ground in northern gaza to make sure it's not pursuing what she called "a policy of starvation" there. it follows widespread claims that the israeli military is beseiging parts of the north and preventing food aid getting through. israel denies it's blocking aid and says 50 trucks arrived in northern gaza today. the us has threatened to cut military supplies unless more aid is allowed through. israel is not allowing internationaljournliasts — including the bbc — independent access to gaza. fergal keane reports from jerusalem, and a warning it contains graphic images that may be distressing from the very start. not a burden, but a duty — to the dead and those left after them.

they'd fled here hoping it might be safer. in gaza city, 13 members of the same family killed by an israeli airstrike. translation: i took out my younger brother at the last moment. - he told me, "i heard mum and dad reciting a prayer". i don't know how he can go back to our home in the north without my mother or father or brothers. the abu nasrfamily were from jabalia. this is what they fled from. a brother mourns his sister. "it's a horrible crime here," says the civil defence officer. "many dead are being pulled out of homes and from the streets". jabalia is cut off by the israeli army fighting hamas. but the horrors being endured here are emerging. they run to save life and because they fear airstrikes. bodies piled into ambulances.

all ages. kamal adwan hospital injabalia is facing a constant stream of casualties. there is a dire humanitarian crisis. israel is accused of refusing or impeding up to 90% of aid to northern gaza in the last month. from jerusalem, i spoke by phone with the hospital director. what is the situation now for you in the hospital? translation: we are talking about collective punishment for the health j system in the gaza strip. consequently, we urge the world to intervene and impose their humanity over the israeli army, to open humanitarian corridors that allow the entrance of medical tools, delegations, fuel and food so that we can provide humanitarian services for the children, newborn babies and patients who are in need.

america has warned israel it may cut arms if it doesn't boost the aid allowed into northern gaza. israel says it's addressing us concerns, and its soldiers blame hamas for the crisis facing civilians, saying medicalfacilities are used to launch attacks on israel. in gaza city, they are digging for the dead. what a child must witness. they desperately want this to stop. but no, they cannot make it happen. fergal keane, bbc news, jerusalem. well, aid is desperately needed in gaza, but how much is actually getting through, and is it reaching the people who need it most? nick eardley from bbc verify is here.

thanks, sophie. the united nations has published figures showing aid trucks it has observed crossing into gaza, and the changes have been significant. you can see them here. before the current conflict, the average was 500 trucks a day. but if we focus in on the last year, the number of trucks increases gradually. in march, around 5,000 trucks crossed into gaza. that's around 170 a day. but since then, a big fall. and a then a significant decrease at the start of this month. this equates to just 13 trucks per day. the un also looked at the population of gaza — just over two million people — and found 96% of them were facing crisis levels of food insecurity, or worse. this map shows the key entry points for aid in the last year. let's look at one — the rafah crossing.

the majority of aid was delivered early in the conflict. you can see this satellite picture from november last year. you can seal the infrastructure around the crossing there. but this is what it looks like now. this is a few weeks ago. it's empty, and buildings have been flattened after israel's military offensive in the area. the rafah crossing has now been closed since the 7th of may — no aid is getting through. in the past few days, since the us sent that letter raising concerns about the aid situation, there has been evidence of some aid passing into gaza. this video was posted today by israel, saying 50 trucks had crossed into northern gaza that have come from jordan. israel has also highlighted dozens of other trucks crossing into gaza in recent days. they are said to have included food, hygiene products, baby formula and shelter equipment. israel has also denied preventing the entry

of humanitarian aid into gaza. but as we know, the us, the un and many others have real concerns about what isn't getting through. sophie. nick eardley, thank you. israel has carried out dozens of air strikes in hezbollah—dominated areas of southern lebanon and of the capital, beirut. the attacks killed the mayor and 15 others and injured more than 50. the lebanese government has accused the world of being silent in the face of attacks on civilians. rescuers have also been searching for survivors today in the town of qana where, according to local officials, israeli bombardment killed seven overnight. israel's military says it killed a local hezbollah commander. 0ur senior international correspondent 0rla guerin sent this report from beirut. terrorfrom the skies. "my god, what have they done?" he says.

"they've destroyed nabatieh. " then, one more israeli air strike. carpet bombing a city that's still home to about 1,200 people. ahmed, on the left, is the mayor who stayed to look after them until his last breath. he was pro—hezbollah, but he was a civilian. the mayor was killed here in the municipality building with five others from his crisis unit. they were meeting about aid, according to the lebanese government. israel says it struck dozens of hezbollah targets in nabatieh. a un official says it killed four members of a relief team the un worked with for more than a year.

and one hour away, this was the picture in qana. the name might be familiar. israel killed at least 100 civilians here when it shelled a un compound in 1996. it bombed the town again in 2006. "in every war we get our share of devastation," says the mayor here, mohammed. "today, the destruction is massive, terrifying. "we still have missing people trapped under the rubble." and there is so much rubble now. israel admits causing all this, and says it eliminated the local commander of hezbollah. the army published this video today showing its bombardment of southern lebanon, in what israel calls a war of self—defence. 0rla guerin, bbc news, beirut.

to ukraine now. the us president, joe biden, has announced a new $425 million military aid package for ukraine tonight. the white house says it includes defense capability, air—to—ground munitions and armoured vehicles. it comes after ukraine's president presented a so—called victory plan to his parliament that he said would be enough to end the war with russia. the two sides have been at war for more than two and a half years now, and fierce fighting continues in the east of ukraine. president zelensky told his parliament the way to end the war was for nato to invite ukraine to become a member, and he said ukraine's allies must end restrictions on long—range strikes on russia. translation: for decades, - russia was using the geopolitical uncertainty in europe and the fact that ukraine is not a nato member as a factor to challenge our safety. a ukraine invitation to nato

is fundamental to peace. 0ur correspondent james waterhouse joins us now from kyiv. let's talk about that military aid package. how much difference could that make? its package. how much difference could that make? , . ., , ., that make? its central, sophie, to ukraine's continued _ that make? its central, sophie, to ukraine's continued war— that make? its central, sophie, to ukraine's continued war effort. - that make? its central, sophie, to | ukraine's continued war effort. we are talking about $425 million in the latest package from ukraine's biggest ally, but it's what 0z might go to follow that the white house is keen to talk up. it's clear the outgoing biden administration is looking to give ukraine as much help as possible, to get it all signed off in the weeks and months ahead. that includes thousands of armoured vehicles, personnel carriers, artillery ammunition, air defence systems and rockets as well, and that will be central to ukraine's continued survival in the eyes of president zielinski. today was a day, when you think about how

ukraine is being impacted by controversial mobilisation law, russia's ongoing invasion, a mounting death toll, it was expected he would announce some concessions in his vision for peace, but there was no such concession announced. in fact, he doubled down. he elaborated on how he wanted his military to be further strengthened. and this plan is only as good as how western allies receive it. he is going to present it to european union leaders tomorrow. he's had a call with presidentjoe biden this evening when that military aid package was announced, but crucially, this victory plan, as he called it, it is all on the what the next us president makes of it. russia has dismissed his vision today. james waterhouse, thank you. here, police and retailers are warning that organised gangs behind

the recent rise in shoplifting are using more sophisticated tactics to steal on a large scale. a bbc news investigation has gained exclusive access to the work of one organisation that tracks the criminals for some of the biggest retailers in the country. jim connolly has the story, marauding gangs, violent tactics. but the reality is often much more sneaky. gangs evolving, going under the radar. we're told this woman wears a fat suit to sneak out more items. 0rganised crime gangs fuelling the rise in shoplifting. the crime adds more than £100 to a family's shopping bill each year. to get a sense of the scale of the problem and how these gangs operate, we've been given exclusive access to the workings of an organisation that follow these gangs for some of the biggest shops in the country. so we are currently tracking 63 organised gangs across the uk who are responsible for £2.4 million worth of theft over a five—year period that we know of. that's just the tip of the iceberg. and we're going to focus on one gang.

what are they called? well, we call them the champagne gang because they steal champagne. so they operate right across the uk, but they're actually from eastern europe. this is really organised, isn't it? it is really organised. it's a mafia—style operation. sarah then talked me through one location the gang hit. ok, let's have a look at harrogate in north yorkshire. and you're going to bring up some of the offenders now. talk us through what we know about these guys. seven individuals here. one of them was actually one of the original key members of the team. the fact that it's seven and not the usual smaller group, what do you think is happening here? we believe that they've used this specific hit as a training day for their new recruits to show them the ropes. you know, do a bit of schooling and then set them to work. what sarah sees happens all over the country. here in beverley in east yorkshire, gangs have been terrifying shop workers. they came around the counter, um, swiping this shelf and the shelf at the bottom there, barging customers and staff out of the way.

sarah says the same gang targeted another of their stores in york on the same afternoon, but nobody was arrested. very, very frustrating. why are forces not talking to each other or have a unit that supports this? would you be surprised to know that there is actually a scheme out there that the government brought in with police forces to do just that, to to coordinate and try and break down these gangs? wow. why didn't we know? why did we not know that this was supposed to be going on? i've been looking into shoplifting now for over a year, and in that time, the frustration of people like sarah continues to grow. and now it's a frustration combined with apathy, with many shops simply not reporting the crime because they don't think the police will do anything about it. and that is why this is becoming a really stubborn problem for the authorities to crack down on. the government is promising action in the form of more police on patrol, and the national police chiefs' council told us there is more work

to do, but insists it's taken leaps and strides in the right direction. jim connolly, bbc news. the man picked to lead the england men's football team into the 2026 world cup is the german former chelsea manager, thomas tuchel. he says he's very proud to take on the job and is focused on making the dream come true for the team's fans. the 51—year—old has an 18—month contract to manage england. prince william, who's president of the football association, called his appointment exciting. 0ur sports editor dan roan reports. it's been eight years since the fa last unveiled a new manager of the england men's team. today thomas tuchel was confirmed as the latest to fill the wembley hot seat, the german telling me just how much it meant to have signed an 18—month contract. thisjob is about, it's about football and it is about, like, pushing the team to have the possibility to win the world cup. this is what got me excited very quickly. it's called sport's impossible job.

is that how you see it, or are you excited by the challenge of proving that wrong? nothing is impossible in sport, that's first of all. and i think they are there and i think the players know it. the federation is there, the women did it, the under 21s do it, so there is no reason and we have to, at some point i think we have to free ourselves from history. havertz in a pocket of space... having won trophies in the three countries he's managed in, tuchel developed a passion for english football at chelsea, where he guided his side to champions league glory. he'll start work as england's third foreign coach injanuary, and says he hasn't decided whether he'll sing the national anthem. so what's his message to those who are disappointed he was preferred to a home—grown coach? i'm 5 o rry' i'm sorry. they should trust also the federation. we had fantastic talks and the federation trusted me, so hopefully i can get some trust in advance and then i have to live up to it and convince them that it was the right choice, that we can squeeze everything out of this group of players.

former manager gareth southgate came close to ending england's long wait for silverware before stepping down this summer. the fa say they interviewed around ten coaches, including english candidates, but then moved quickly to end the uncertainty surrounding the team. do you understand those who are disappointed that a footballing country as proud as england hasn't got an english coach? i think we were very clear that we always wanted the very best person for the job, but i think any federation will always want to look at an appointment like this and have a really strong candidate pool of five to ten domestic candidates who are winning trophies at both club and international level. we're not in that position at the moment. interim boss lee carsley will remain in charge for england's next two fixtures before tuchel, whose assistant will be englishman anthony barry, takes over in the new year. his task — to reach the 2026 world cup and end what by then will be a 60—year wait for a trophy. and there was no stopping thomas tuchel. tuchel�*s arrival reflects the fa's mounting desire

to finally land a trophy, but it's also a move away from their recent emphasis on giving english talent a chance. there's plenty at stake for both the coach and his employers. dan roan, bbc news, wembley. now, look at these lines, that architecture. it's the elizabeth line — the purple line — hence the colour here — and it hasjust been named as the winner of this year's stirling prize for the uk's best new architecture. the track is 62 miles long. it runs from reading right across london to abbey wood in the east and has ten new and 31 upgraded stations along the way. 200 million passengers are expected to use it every year. time for a look at the weather. here's chris fawkes. and if you want to continue watching the bbc news at 10pm, please turn over to bbc1, or you can watch on iplayer. next, it's newsnight.

and if you want to carry on watching newsnight, please turn over to bbc two, or watch on iplayer.

deep unease and a nightmare. cabinet sources tell newsnight of anxiety over budget spending cuts.

and this woman lost 11 stone using weight loss drugs like 0zempic.