campaign official on the harris campaign this morning, saying that they were almost dead and couldn't speak any more because they are so tired, so maybe they're even more tired on the campaigns than we are. it's the time zones as well, though, isn't it? like you're hopping between time zones and you're trying to calculate what time is it, where i'm supposed to be and where i'm speaking and what... there's a lot of maths in your brain. exactly. and we're journalists for a reason. yeah, it's because we're not mathematicians. and this is, of course, path to the presidency. we're meeting weekly to talk about what we're looking at in the election, in the lead up to election night, where the three of us are going to be in the studio together, of course. and caitriona, you're in arizona. tell us what you've been seeing there. yes, lam here in tucson, arizona, as we're speaking, i'm actually in the student union centre of the university of arizona, tucson campus, where i've been speaking to students. this is part of our voter voices series, sumi, that you and i have been doing it and other colleagues

will be doing as well, just taking the temperature of voters in these key swing states sometimes vote republicans, sometimes vote democrat just to see are the polls right, do they feel like that on the ground and what issues are driving people? and i can say, i've been here now for three days, and it would feel as close as the polls say it is. you meet a harris voter, you quickly meet a trump voter. you meet a trump voter. and of course, in this state, in arizona, there are slightly more registered republican voters than democrats. but there are three in ten voters who consider themselves to be independent. so that's quite a big chunk of people who, you know, go between different candidates for different races as well. i've spoken to a lot of people who feel like they're going to vote one way for the president and then vote for the other party down the ticket, because you also have two of the most competitive house races in this state and a quite competitive senate seat race as well. we're right beside the border, of course, so that that is a big issue here as well. and arizona has the issue of abortion on the ballot. so in addition to all those elected representatives,

people here will also be voting on 13 propositions is what they're called. they're basically laws that they want to change. and one of those is to change the state constitution and enshrine in it the right to an abortion up until the point of viability. so that's considered to be somewhere between 22 and 24 weeks. currently, abortion is allowed up until 15 weeks here. caitriona, i spent quite a lot of time in arizona just before the midterm elections in 2022. and one thing that is interesting about arizona, i thought, compared to the kind of blue wall states, is that it's a very much more fluid population. you've got a lot of people coming into the state. you've got kind of republicans who don't like california moving to arizona for lower taxes. obviously, you've got a big immigrant population. do you get a sense that the population of the state has changed much in the last four years? and in any way that it might kind of help either kamala harris or or donald trump? do people talk about that? that's exactly it, katty i met a republican from california just

this morning who moved here for the reasons you're mentioning. political refugees. yeah. i've met three people who moved here from pennsylvania as well, two from connecticut. so it feels like people come from all over the country to arizona. and i can see why. it's absolutely gorgeous. and i mean, it's extremely hot today in the middle of october. it's still, i mean, at 8:00 this morning, it was like 25 c, you know, and it gets obviously, you know, boiling during the summertime here. but there's a lot going for arizona. but there is a really, really mixed population, as you say there. about a quarter of the population would be members of the latino community. so that's obviously a key constituency that we've seen harris and trump courting as well. and you've got a big immigrant population here as well, and people move around the state. but there is really a sense here that people are quite upset with both candidates. i would have to say, you know, i mean, there are solid trump voters and solid harris voters, but a lot of people just aren't happy with either of them.

you know what i was wondering, looking at that you're in arizona and abortion being on the ballot, you know, there are ten states in this election cycle where abortion is on the ballot. and, you know, you have states like florida and arizona and, you know, looking at the way that people feel about abortion across the country, i wonder if abortion would be enough to change how people vote in the presidential election, but also down ballot in some of those important house races that you mentioned in that critical senate race in arizona, how much does it actually drive the way that people are going to vote in a state like arizona is that something people have told you? yeah, we've talked a lot about that. i have to say, the voters here are really engaged, i think, because they have so much to vote on this time around. i mean, the voter guidance pack is 300 pages thick, it's like a phone directory. wow. yeah, it's huge. and, you know, on that issue of abortion, the proposition 139, there are 35 pages of people who've submitted reasons why you should vote for it, and something like 28 pages of people who say why you shouldn't. so the electorate is

really i think anyone's. do you think anyone is actually reading that? well, you know, it's, i mean, you would think that right? but i've met so many people who say, yeah, they will. and there's a lot of early mail in voting here as well. and people say, because there's so much to vote on, they actually want to, you know, sit at home, do it over a few days, read bits and bobs of the booklet, and then cast their vote there. but as to whether it would dictate turnout or how people vote, i've met a lot of people who say they're going to vote for enshrining those abortion rights, but they're also going to vote for donald trump, which was quite interesting, i thought. i met another few voters who said they were going to vote against that, who were very pro—life and very conservative republican voters, and they're going to vote for donald trump. and they're actually upset at how he has kind of dragged the republican party's position on abortion to be, as one woman said to me, more liberal than i would like it to be, but, you know, it's still better than kind of full permission. so it's really interesting dynamics here.

caitriona, why do you think...? i spent a great day with kari lake when i was down there filming. and, i mean, she's in an extraordinary kind of retail politician. i was with her in a kind of retirement community, you know, one of those big communities that they've built. and she was just charming the pants off everybody at this kind of lunch reception for her. and yet she's clearly behind in that senate race there. what do you think that's about? is she putting herfoot in it? do people not like her? do they see her as too extreme? is ruben gallego, who is the democratic candidate, a much better candidate? why do you think she's polling so far behind donald trump in arizona? yeah, i think there's a range of reasons that people have said to me. and again, it's not a scientific, you know, cross—section poll. it'sjust various people i've met going around the state here is that gallego is kind of maybe you'd call him a moderate democrat. you know, he has positions that are more into the middle rather than quite left. so he appeals across the spectrum. and a lot of people have said when they describe kari lake to me,

they say "shouty" and that she kind of comes across as a bit aggressive and that they don't like that. but it's really interesting because the polls have obviously harris and trump so close, with trump slightly edging it, but again, probably within the margin of error. but almost all the polls have gallego, the democratic senate candidate, six, seven, eight, 9% ahead of kari lake. so quite a distance there. so i mean, i think arizona is going to be really one to watch on election night for a whole pile of reasons. well, i have been a lot further away than arizona, although i love arizona because i love the desert and the warmth, and i've had some very happy times there reporting. it's great. i've been in the uk for the last week, which seems a bit of an odd place to go and cover a us election, but i was doing a tour with my podcast, the rest is politics us with anthony scaramucci. and the thing that blew me away was how much interest there is in this election. i mean, you talk about the interest in arizona. we were in london in a stadium,

and 13,000 people turned out to the 02 stadium to come and listen to four nerds talk about politics, two of them talking about the american election. i don't know, maybe people didn't have something else to do on tuesday night, but it was really. and it was kind of both bewildering and a reminder of the amazing level of interest that people have in this election in particular. and we had so many questions from people who came to these shows, and we were in manchester and glasgow and cardiff and london and everywhere people are just fascinated and some of it's the us system, you know, and some of it, of course, is donald trump. people are fascinated by donald trump. there were questions about the money in american politics, questions about why us elections take so long. but then there were super specific questions as well about, "what can we tell from early voting in pennsylvania, and what does it actually mean for the outcome of the election?" i mean, people honestly, people know more about the american election than is probably good for them at this point. i absolutely saw that. ...asking the advice to stop watching the polls.

...in germany as well. i remember in 2008, i went to... barack 0bama, came to tiergarten in berlin, and he held a rally. there were nearly 200,000 people at that rally. we didn't quite get 200,000. but you're getting there. next time, next time. bring bring barack 0bama with you. he might do it, actually. and i remember people around me in the crowd talking about the intricacies of the american electoral system. and it was remarkable to me how much people there were not only curious about, but invested in the american electoral system in a way that many americans themselves are not. and there's this understanding that, you know, every single vote in the us matters everywhere else in the world, doesn't it? and people understand the weight and the impact of us elections. plus, you know, it's fun, the horse race of a us election and people are interested in watching. and i think, i mean, i'm sure you guys would agree when you travel around the country like we're here in arizona, we've been in michigan, pennsylvania and so on, people are astounded when they hear, you've come from the bbc and you're from ireland and you know, you want to talk to them about their election, they kind of find that mind

boggling, like, "why would you come so far away to talk to us? " you know, and that there is that level of interest. but i think, as you say, sumi, you know, it impacts the rest of the world. what happens here and who's in the white house, particularly how much power the president has when it comes to foreign policy. right? yeah i mean, ithink that's always the case. look, we all know that what happens at 1600 pennsylvania avenue affects our listeners around the world and our viewers around the world and other countries in a way that is just not true of any other capital. i mean, it's not true of london. it's not true of beijing, in the same way, it's not true of moscow in the same way, or paris or berlin in the same way. so there's always been every election i've covered, there's been a lot of international interest. the thing ifound different in the questions when we were on tour last week, were the number of questions about the prospect for political violence after the election. and i and i have that's and that is a post—january the sixth question and it's not something that's come up in other elections. and this idea that, you know, what will democracy

in america look like? and some of it is, um, sort of catastrophizing a little bit, i think, but some of it are genuine questions about how would a trump presidency change the systems of american government? will there be a peaceful transfer of power? will donald trump concede if he loses? what are the kind of... we were getting lots of questions about what legal suits have been filed. i mean, in states like the one you're in, caitriona in arizona, that might show that there's going to be some kind of long, drawn out process after the election and that is new. i mean, that's something that i haven't heard... 0n the question of political violence. i remember spending a day, actually in arizona, caitriona, in a trump merchandise shop, the biggest trump merchandise shop in america. it was about four hours outside of phoenix, and they were doing a roaring trade in kind of trump cut—out models and tshirts with mike pence behind bars on them and all the kind of usual stuff. but it was run by this lovely

couple, steve and mary. and i remember asking them, you know, "what would happen if the republicans lost the midterms?" and they said, "oh, well, they would take up arms." i mean, they had guns and they were prepared to use them. and it was the the most detailed description of how a civil war would start in america that i've ever heard. and it came in the lovely state that you're in, caitriona, and i don't haven't heard that much. i don't know that... i don't think that's what's going to happen. i heard it before 2022 and it didn't happen after 2022, and we're hearing a bit of it now. but it was just fascinating to me that that question is being asked around the world, and people are looking at america's democracy as something a little bit more fragile and not as certain. and what does that mean for other countries if america is not what it's been for the last 70 years? i was speaking to a group of young men this morning who had just come off a night shift in one of the big factories here, and they were very mixed in terms of backgrounds and ethnicities and so on. and i asked them, had they been to any trump or harris rallies. and a couple of them said, no, i wouldn't go.

i'm concerned about violence. i would be concerned about something happening at a rally. and ijust thought that that was, you know, it's a shocking kind of indictment of where things are at in this country. it is. and, you know, january sixth did really change the frame, not only here in the us, but, of course, around the world. as you said, katty, this is a concern people have. if you look at it, i mean, there have been conversations about this already on the campaign trail and in the many interviews that the candidates have been doing. right? and you've seen, for example, vice presidential pickjd vance asked multiple times in multiple ways if donald trump lost the 2020 election, and he hasn't fully answered that question, he's avoided answering that question. and donald trump has been asked, you know, will there be a peaceful transfer of power? and he says, well, in 2020, there was a peaceful transfer of power. and that he continues to say falsely that nobody died onjanuary 6th. and so it does of course, raise concern if this is still the narrative through which we're looking at things from the trump

campaign, the last election. does that then ripen the ground again for some sort of violence? i mean, it does feel, i don't know what the sense is that you guys get, but it does feel like authorities are far more prepared for that this time because of january 6th. well, i mean, if you lookjust around washington, dc already, there are barricades going up and fences going up that i don't remember having seen at this point before. i mean, some structures go up ahead of the inauguration, but we're months away from that. but you can't get anywhere near the white house now. like the area right in front there of lafayette park, where on many election nights i've been down there when the result has come in, chatting to people who've gathered there and, you know, they're some are upset and some are happy, that area is totally locked down. so there won't be that same kind of celebration commiseration outside the white house. and that is absolutely as a result of what happened in that city on the 6th ofjanuary. i don't know that we would see the same and donald trump has suggested that he, you know, wouldn't be rallying

forces in the way that he did as i listened to that speech on january the 6th. but i think the more likely than a kind of anotherjanuary 6th type scenario is sort of more vigilante type activity against people who are thought to have stolen the election, if that's the way that it is framed afterjanuary the 6th. sumi, what have you been thinking about this week? it actually plays right into what we were just talking about, which is election integrity and concerns around this election. and i've been thinking about and listening to what some of the agencies are that have been tasked with making sure that the us election is safe and secure. and, look, those agencies have been, you know, hitting the media trail, trying to convince people and assure people as well that this election will be safe and secure. and there are a number of agencies that are charged with us, including, for example, the department of homeland security. but earlier, the dhs did put out a report saying that they've seen the number of warnings that they've had to issue to political candidates, to government leaders targeted by foreign groups has risen significantly. so, i mean, compared to the midterms, which is the last election obviously we saw in 2022, it is a presidential election. so you do see that uptick in threats from foreign adversaries.

but they pointed specifically to iran, russia and china and said russia is really deemed the biggest threat there. but we also know that donald trump has been briefed about threats to assassinate him by iranian... iranian threats to assassinate him, and that the us government has warned iran as well about this. and, you know, there are certainly things that the dhs and cisa, which is a cybersecurity agency of the government, have been doing. so they say that they have been out and about kind of training election workers. they've been in pretty much every state speaking to the secretaries of state about making sure that their election systems are working and that, you know, they are able to alert authorities if there is a threat. but i went to a senate hearing back in may in the senate intelligence committee that they had about 20, 2a election threats. and i think what's really interesting is the domestic threat as well. right? because we've talked a lot about the fact that or just now all of us have just talked about the threat that we might see

of violence, perhaps. and we have a great piece on our website by our colleague mike wendling about, you know, poll workers and personnel and concerns that they have on election night as well. and, you know, all of this can help raise that sense or that concern that there is something that is going to be affected in the election or in the outcome, even though authorities keep saying that's certainly not the case. but i was thinking about the fact, you know, the three of us will be in the studio on election night. and what about, you know, misinformation and disinformation? what if a video comes out on election night of donald trump purporting to be donald trump saying, ok, i'm dropping out of the race now, obviously the three of us are going to be sitting here relying on our colleagues, and we have our great bbc verify team. but who is responsible at that point to say this is not donald trump, you know, this is misinformation, this is disinformation, and we need to debunk this immediately? and i think the concern i have is it's not entirely clear to me who's responsible for that. and that can put us, of course

but really, voters, most importantly in a tricky spot. sumi, what are they doing as well to protect election workers? there was a lot of talk after 2020 and even around 2022 about how hard it was, it had got harder to recruit volunteers and people to work at polling stations and stuff, have they. and stuff, have they, are they taking kind of extra efforts this time around to try and protect poll workers and poll counters? yeah. we talked to the head of cisa, jen easterly, and she talked about the fact that they've actually been doing this for, you know, notjust in the direct lead up to this election, but for months now and several months ahead of 2024, to make sure that they have a solid infrastructure on the ground. and that means also working with poll workers, that they feel that they are supported by the local election infrastructure, but also federal election infrastructure. and so that means also making sure that they are trained to know what to do if there is a threat, for example, or how to make sure that they're secure, if they feel like they are, that their safety is at threat. this issue of election integrity

is another one, actually, that the people i've been speaking to here in arizona have raised with me because, again, they have a number of issues on the ballot that they'll have to vote for, more of these propositions that are around election, security and election integrity. of course, a few dozen people faced charges in the wake of 2020, charged with interfering in the process and the electoral college process, pro—trump supporters. so it's something that's very to the forefront of people's minds here. and it was striking as well, voters here said to me, which i hadn't heard to the same extent from voters in the other states i've been in about how concerned they were about misinformation and disinformation. and it's interesting to see some people who only get their news, let's say, from one or two media channels. and i'd ask them, why were they, you know, voting for donald trump over kamala harris _ and then they would repeat to me

these sentences using a certain type of language that are republican talking points, you know, like a few people talking about how kamala harris delivers a word salad whenever she speaks. i mean, that's not really a way that most people speak in conversation. you know, it's kind of like a talking point that they're, that they're hearing from somewhere. and so i think the, the role of, you know, the media, the social media, these echo chambers, and to your point, sumi about who tells on election night whether something is is faked or not, i mean, i think that there's no one to do that, really. i mean, that's so many battles we see up on capitol hill about the responsibility of social media companies and the absence of an independent regulator. yeah. and i mean, obviously, if the election is very, very tight in arizona and in the other battleground states and nationally as well in terms of the electoral college, and the process goes on for a while, i think the longer it goes on, the more vacuum there is, the more counts and calls for recounts. and i think that's where all of these lawsuits that have been filed pre—emptively,

particularly on the trump side, but then you've got counter lawsuits from the democrats as well, adds to this sense of that there could be insecurity, because it's that kind of window where there's a vacuum that you're that you might have bad actors step in, as we saw in places like georgia. last time, i remember being down in georgia and interviewing poll workers, and they'd had bomb threats at various polling stations, like a week or two. i mean, this was between the polling day and then they had that special senate election. but there was a very febrile atmosphere in the state for weeks after the election. and the poor poll workers, who were non—partisan poll workers, had these bomb threats that the fbi took so seriously that they told this woman, lovely woman, to say, ok, you need to park your car right outside. she had a ground floor office. you need to park your vehicle right outside your office window so that if there is a bomb threat, then that will mitigate some of the blast from the bomb. and you'll be a little bit protected

from the shattering glass. i mean, this woman, she said that she wouldn't leave the office to walk through the car park at night if it was dark. her husband came and accompanied lots of. they got a whole group of other people to come and accompany them to their cars because they were so worried. and that, again, i mean, to get to our point about the kind of rather depressing state of politics that when you feel when poll workers who aren't partisan and don't, you know, vote don't ostensibly come from either democratic or republican side and just try and a civil servant trying to do theirjob. but the longer this gets drawn out after november the 5th, the longer we don't have a result, i think the more the chances are for some sense of insecurity around these polling locations and the counting process, exactly as we saw in georgia last time. that is indeed the concern and if you listen to what some of these election authorities are saying, they're trying to prepare everyone in advance by saying, look, we're not going to have official results on election night. remember that it will take longer. we do have early voting. mail in ballots that will be counted on the day of of course.

but i had seen this poll from an npr marist poll from earlier this month, and i'm just going to look over what the numbers. again, it said almost six in ten americans say they're concerned or very concerned that there will be voter fraud in this election. and ijust found that remarkable, because that means that some of that misinformation about the security of the last election really has seeped in, hasn't it? and at that point, if people do not trust that this will be a fair, safe, secure election, that is really troubling of course, for any democracy and and one that's especially going to be such a close race, as you said, katty, to your point, the longer we have to wait for a result, the more that there is a the threat of some sort of unrest, whether that be violence or more misinformation or disinformation, that's the real concern here. well, that was a really cheerful episode. yeah! let's hope for the best, guys! next week we'll bring you,

you know, the cheery stuff. yeah. let's put our belief in humankind. we promise we'll be better next week. hello. we've got our first named storm of the season, so a notch up on what we've had so far this autumn. we'll all feel the effects of storm ashley. widespread gales, but a met office amber warning for some stormy weather for the western side of scotland. more rain to come with it as well. you can see it developing here in the atlantic. it will rapidly develop in the next 18 to 2a hours, and even ahead of it, some typical autumnalwind and rain with us at the moment. moving its way eastwards to clear across scotland and northern ireland, western fringes of england and wales by the morning time. so quite chilly in these areas and there could be some low level fog to watch out for under our rain band. it's misty murky, with hilfiger much milder than it was last night, but it does mean a slow start to saturday for eastern

parts of england. it could be that that rain drags its heels into the afternoon, but for most of us, it's the quieter day of the weekend. the winds are lighter, there'll be some sunshine, just a scattering of showers, so i think it will feel quite pleasant. eventually that rain clears from east anglia as we head towards the middle part of the afternoon. so 15 to 17, just a little bit above average. but then as we go through the night, we start to see this next area of low pressure, this deepening storm coming our way with windy weather and rain for all parts. as i say, it's a notch up on what we've seen so far this autumn. so widespread gales, particularly around the coast, on the hills, but even inland for some a spell again of very wet weather for a time. and then it brightens up with a few showers, but more rain and another escalation in the winds. it looks stronger still in the north and west. bear in mind as well, we've got high tides at the moment, so we may well have some coastal flooding as well, another hazard. so these sort of wind speeds enough to bring down the trees that are in full leaf, cause some

travel disruption as well, and structural damage, and even more ferocious, the feeling at the moment is that western scotland will have gusts of wind up to 80 miles an hour during the course of sunday, so it's definitely one to watch before it looks as if it'll scoot away into the north sea across to scandinavia, leaving us with a brisk westerly wind, possibly more rain coming into the south and the east on monday. but at the moment it's a couple of days of quieter weather, sunny spells and showers. we may even see high pressure into the middle part of the week, but there's more on the storm on the website.

live from washington, this is bbc news. world leaders see the potential opening for a ceasefire in the middle east, following the killing of hamas leader yahya sinwar. but deadly israeli air strikes continue in gaza — and hamas doubles down on its military objectives. elsewhere us presidentjoe biden meets european allies in germany and urges unwavering support for ukraine. hello, i'm carl nasman. we start with the latest on the middle east — we've heard more reaction today from world leaders on israel's killing of hamas

leader yahya sinwar. speaking to reporters before departing germany, president biden said the so—called "quad" of western allies agrees there is a road to peace, though he acknowledged it would be "difficult". on friday, a senior hamas member confirmed sinwar was killed, but says his death will only strengthen the group. the bbc has learned that the group will meet soon to choose a new leader. and israel's government says their war objectives have not yet been met. meanwhile, crowds of israelis have continued their protests against netanyahu in tel aviv, demanding a ceasefire deal to bring the israeli hostages home. and israel has continued to pound gaza with air strikes, bringing fresh destruction and reports of dozens of casualties. our middle east correspondent wyre davies sent this update. this has been a day of many developments in the middle east following the death of the hamas leader, yahya sinwar.