not well with iranians who did not want to see a shadow conflict speu want to see a shadow conflict spell out further into the open and i say that with the great caveat of knowing what happened in iran in recent years when people have tried to protest and voice dissent? i’m people have tried to protest and voice dissent?— people have tried to protest and voice dissent? i'm so happy ou and voice dissent? i'm so happy you brought _ and voice dissent? i'm so happy you brought that _ and voice dissent? i'm so happy you brought that up. _ and voice dissent? i'm so happy you brought that up. for- and voice dissent? i'm so happy you brought that up. for those l you brought that up. for those watching, there was an uprising in iran, which was anti—regime in iran, which was anti—regime in sentiment. the regime crackdown brutally which led to crimes against humanity committed against ordinary citizens. iranians on the ground are very much anti—regime, and they are caught in the middle between this. there is mixed messaging on the ground, a lot of iranians don't want war, but some think israel can help bring the demise of the islamic republic, and they welcome any kind of retaliation against the regime itself. not against the

people, but against the regime. can i ask, what do you think this means for iran's nuclear programme? previously there was speculation as to whether they would look at scaling up rapidly in order to secure a weapon within a number of weeks, to act as a deterrent. what do you make of that prospect? i what do you make of that wowed?— prospect? i think it's truthful. _ prospect? ithink it's truthful. first, - prospect? i think it's truthful. first, there i prospect? i think it's l truthful. first, there is concern that iran would go all the way with its nuclear programme, especially with proxies being named, hamas and hezbollah. but i think some of the concern was that if israel attacked iran's nuclear facilities, because they wouldn't be able to take it out, that would may be incentivised tehran to push to a nuclear weapon. so it's really unclear, but based off some of the rhetoric we have heard from iranian officials, they have definitely been flirting with that idea for the past year.

flirting with that idea for the past year-— flirting with that idea for the ast ear. ., , ., ., past year. holly, thank you for bein: past year. holly, thank you for being with _ past year. holly, thank you for being with us. _ we are getting new pictures purporting to show some of the explosions in tehran. the bbc has not been able to independently confirm this video, shot by the associated press. these are the latest pictures. explosions. this reaction earlier to the

developing situation. it was exnected. _ developing situation. it was expected, the _ developing situation. it was expected, the israeli - developing situation. it was i expected, the israeli defence minister talked about precise, deadly and surprising, or unexpected. we haven't seen that yet and it is way too early to tell. what we do know is the israelis have mounted at least three areas in two waves of strikes. once against targets in and around tehran. the second against targets in shiraz, which was the second wave. and a third set of strikes in syria, which were pretty comprehensive. presumably against iranian revolutionary guard corps command and control, weapons depots, missile launchers... were not going to know, we may never know, it depends on transparency here in terms of what the israelis are prepared to put out, and again what the

iranians are prepared to disclose. right now, it's clear they are playing the game of denying precisely what is actually happening on the ground. in an effort, i suspect, not only to save face but to create the sense that, whatever the israelis have done is not serious, it doesn't require a major, massive iranian response. i think the bottom line is going to be, when the israelis are ultimately done, exactly what did the israelis take out? are there civilian casualties? are we talking about significant losses? the iranian revolutionary guard corps forces? that could change the iranian calculation. right now, for an attack that appears to be so public, at least on the one hand, with the israelis briefing although not in great detail, it strikes me that the iranians are setting the stage to try to de—escalate and absorb. but again, i mean, it's

early days. i think we are still way, way away from making that kind of definitive conclusion that this is over. one additional point. the israelis have assured the administration that, in fact, they were talking about military strikes. leaving aside economic infrastructure, petrochemical plants, electrical grids and nuclear sites. but the real assurances the israelis would be prepared to make if the iranians, for whatever reason, decided they must respond to this... is this one and done or are we going to see another round? fin one and done or are we going to see another round?— one and done or are we going to see another round? on the point whether it _ see another round? on the point whether it is _ see another round? on the point whether it is one _ see another round? on the point whether it is one and _ see another round? on the point whether it is one and done, - see another round? on the point whether it is one and done, or i whether it is one and done, or whether it is one and done, or whether we could see further attacks, what do you think in terms of the form those attacks could take? of course israel could take? of course israel could deploy missiles and so on, but when you think back to lebanon a matter of weeks ago,

some very unexpected tactics as well. ., , 'j~:: :: :: some very unexpected tactics as well. ., viki: 11:1 , . well. roughly 180-200 ballistic missiles made _ well. roughly 180-200 ballistic missiles made impact - well. roughly 180-200 ballistic missiles made impact with - well. roughly 180-200 ballistic. missiles made impact with about 15 of them, even with israel's multi—layered defence. i think they would expend most of their missiles to create a saturation attack, that would have major impacts in israeli population centres and infrastructure, then i think you would see what then i think you would see what the middle east has never experienced before, which is a major multi—front war. and that raises the ever present possibility, should the iranians decide, if the israelis strike economic infrastructure, or oil exporting sites, off donald of attacking as they did in september 2019, the saudi sites.

what we don't know here is galactic. we are reading tea leaves. i would venture to guess that the israelis, even though it is in the interests of this particular israeli prime minister to maintain a level of military activity, continued military activity, in gaza, in lebanon... i don't think even benjamin netanyahu wants to risk the possibility of a major escalation. some argue that's exactly what he intends, he wants to drive the united states into a major war and use the americans to set back the iranian nuclear programme. i mean, who knows? that may come in time but it's certainly not here now. do you think washington, _ certainly not here now. do you think washington, antony - think washington, antony blinken for example, sufficiently have the ear of the israelis to dissuade

something that could be more detrimental involving the whole region? do you think they are successfully in that position right now? i successfully in that position right now?— successfully in that position riaht now? . ,, right now? i mean, i think so far ou right now? i mean, i think so far you would _ right now? i mean, i think so far you would have _ right now? i mean, i think so far you would have to - right now? i mean, i think so far you would have to give i right now? i mean, i think so| far you would have to give the biden administration a degree of credit for making their desires clear here. i think that simply happened to coincide with what the israelis were thinking. there may have been an argument to make to the prime minister, by some, that now is the time, you will never get a better chance. you have 12 or 13 days before one of the most consequential elections in modern american history. now is the time to strike. obviously israelis have not taken that advice. if the iranians for whatever reason, and may their tolerance for risk has increased... i would tolerance for risk has increased... iwould never tolerance for risk has increased... i would never have predicted two ballistic missile

strikes, in april and october... if iran has decided they want to return in a heavy form, then i think all assurances, all bets are off, and you could in fact see the israelis go after oil infrastructure. remember, these are two countries who don't share a border. the nearest point is around 1000 miles. neither has the capacity to destroy the other�*s capacity to wage war. the iranians have the capability to inflict pain on the israelis, the israelis a great deal more, but there are limits beyond which this can't go. unless, unless it expands to bring in other parties and other targets. to bring in other parties and othertargets. saudi to bring in other parties and other targets. saudi arabia. israeli civilian targets. then israeli civilian targets. then i think you would get the us... and there is no surprise here, the us is going to support the israelis to the hilt when it comes to that sort of scenario,

if the iranians decide they want to escalate for whatever reason. azadeh moshiri with me. bring us up to date with what we are hearing from iran.— hearing from iran. right now, we are trying _ hearing from iran. right now, we are trying to _ hearing from iran. right now, we are trying to piece - hearing from iran. right now, | we are trying to piece together everything but we do have a new piece of information. according to multiple news agencies, the iran civil aviation authority saying it is suspending all flights. that's significant because that coming in just as cbs, our us media partner, has been told by an israeli official that the attack isn't over. reports have been coming in that there is a second wave thatis in that there is a second wave that is ongoing. and on top of this, we are seeing videos coming out from iranian state media that their air defence system is still supposedly working successfully... because

we haven't that ourselves. but all of this suggests that while iranian state media has been saying everything is under control, everything is still also unfolding. so right now, we are trying to make sense of this. we don't have this information coming from our own reporters on the ground. we don't operate in iran. but every indication is suggesting that, right now, military targets are being targeted. that is what the idf has said. we know the us has urged them not to target any nuclear sites, any oil production sites. so right now, wejust need to see what the scale of the attack is and try to assess afterwards whether iran will feel the need to respond. this feel the need to respond. as ou feel the need to respond. as you have _ feel the need to respond. as you have pointed out all evening, the optics and the messages coming from iran so far have been an effort to at least try and minimize what appears to be happening on the world stage. tell us more about why the regime would be doing

that. it why the regime would be doing that. ., , , ~' why the regime would be doing that. ., , , ,, , ., that. it does seem like state media is downplaying - that. it does seem like state media is downplaying the i media is downplaying the impact. it could also be that this isn't a large—scale attack. wejust this isn't a large—scale attack. we just don't know. but if you judge from previous behaviour, iranian state media often tries to downplay attacks. again, it highlights the magnitude of these events that in the past year, this isn't the first time we are talking about exchanges between iran and israel directly. and in the past, state media downplays it, they want to show strength. they have had a series of blows in the past year. both to their own security infrastructure, for example when hamas's political chief was assassinated on their own soil. but also their proxies have been weakened. yahya sinwar was assassinated, the former head of hamas. hezbollah's leader hassan nasrallah. arguably a more long time, more powerfulfigure in the region, a huge symbol of the region, a huge symbol of the axis of resistance. and so

while their proxies have been weakened, while they have been suffering a series of public blows on the international stage, they aren't going to want to initiate or be seen to be the ones to be the trigger for a full—scale war. they are mounting a propaganda campaign as well over the past year, once they feel has been fairly successful when you look at the war in the middle east. so what they will try to do is find an end to this so they don't get dragged into a war that they can't handle themselves militarily.— can't handle themselves militarily. can't handle themselves militaril. �*, ., ., militarily. let's zoom out for one moment _ militarily. let's zoom out for one moment and _ militarily. let's zoom out for one moment and reflect - militarily. let's zoom out for one moment and reflect on. militarily. let's zoom out for i one moment and reflect on the fact that, for so many years, for decades, this has been a shadow war. and now we are seeing these attacks, a cycle, play out in the open. you mention there the blows that iran have suffered over this past year. the fact that we are talking about these attacks in april, in october, is incredibly significant in

itself. it incredibly significant in itself. , ., itself. it is, you are right. we have _ itself. it is, you are right. we have typically - itself. it is, you are right. we have typically seen i itself. it is, you are right. j we have typically seen all itself. it is, you are right. i we have typically seen all of this play out via a shadow war. of this play out via a shadow war. of course, israel and iran have been very public about their enmity, about how they see each other and huge threats in the region. but iran has targeted israel through its proxies, its axis of resistance, also known as its resistance front. those are made up of hamas in gaza, hezbollah in lebanon. both the two organisations proscribed as terrorist organisations by the us, the uk and several other western states. but also made up western states. but also made up of the houthis in yemen. and several shia militias in syria. so israel has found itself surrounded by these forces that are targeting it. but to see a full—scale attack of any kind, any direct exchange of fire between israel and iran, is a

very significant moment and it's going to put the international community on edge, because they are trying to make sure this doesn't escalate into a wider war that keeps drawing in more actors. tension upon tension, as you say. we can show you new pictures purporting to show some of the explosions in tehran. the bbc has not been able to independently confirm this video, but it was filmed by the associated press iran. explosions.

shayan from bbc verify has been looking into this story. what is the latest you are seeing online? this what is the latest you are seeing online? as iranians are beginning _ seeing online? as iranians are beginning to _ seeing online? as iranians are beginning to wake _ seeing online? as iranians are beginning to wake up, - seeing online? as iranians are beginning to wake up, iran i seeing online? as iranians are beginning to wake up, iran is. beginning to wake up, iran is three and a half hours ahead of us, so it's 7.15 in the morning now. we are beginning to get more videos about what's happened and the impact of it. we are trying to verify some of the scene that we have seen. initially, we are mostly getting videos from the west of tehran, particularly towards another major city west of the capital. now we are seeing videos from the east. three hours into when we first heard about this, it does seem like videos are coming in. we are seeing projectiles in the sky

over iran, the air defence active. it does appear from a couple of videos that a couple of army bases have been hit. still trying to confirm which particular bases and whether the footage is recent. we can definitely say that is what has happened overnight. a couple of military bases have been targeted. so at the same time, seeing videos uploaded, projectiles over the sky in tehran, which do appear to be air defence. this tehran, which do appear to be air defence.— air defence. as you are pointing _ air defence. as you are pointing out _ air defence. as you are pointing out there, i pointing out there, verification is key in all of this. how have you been going about it? i this. how have you been going about it? . , this. how have you been going about it? ., , ., this. how have you been going about it? ., ., , about it? i was born and raised in iran, about it? i was born and raised in iran. i— about it? i was born and raised in iran. i am — about it? i was born and raised in iran, i am iranian _ about it? i was born and raised in iran, i am iranian british, i in iran, i am iranian british, so| in iran, i am iranian british, so i know the capital tehran quite well, i used to live there, years and years ago. i have friends and family there, i have been messaging them. some of the videos uploaded, some of the major landmarks,

the towers and the skyscrapers, i know them and exactly where they are, so it's a bit easier to look at the map of tehran and compare the video. at the same time, there are some old images and videos going around. i am familiar images and videos going around. iam familiarwith images and videos going around. i am familiar with them because we do this every time there is some sort of an attack in iran and other parts of the middle east. in this case, the israeli defence minister yoav gallant has mistakenly published an image of an explosion of an oil refinery in tehran in 2021. his office has published it on social media, the operations room with members of the idf looking at a screen, and it seems they are looking at an image from 2021, not what has been happening tonight. and video from beirut, israeli attacks, videos from gaza, and attacks, videos from gaza, and attacks in israel popping up. people want to pretend and they want engagement, so we must be careful about what we are

seeing, not easy to verify videos in a breaking news situation.— videos in a breaking news situation. ., situation. really important advice there, _ situation. really important advice there, thank - situation. really important advice there, thank you i situation. really important advice there, thank you so | advice there, thank you so much. we are also getting reports from syrian state media of explosions in syria s capital damascus. the state news agency said syrian air defences intercepted what it called hostile targets. there have also been reports of explosions in iraq, to the west and northwest of the capital baghdad. we don't have any indication at this stage that those were caused by israeli airstrikes — but iran is a sponsor of several proxy groups in the middle east, including in syria and iraq. live now to thomas juneau assistant professor university of ottawa graduate school of public and international affairs. since we last spoke, we are learning more about the scope of this attack, with the second wave of attacks. what do you make of it? what seems to _ what do you make of it? what seems to be — what do you make of it? what seems to be the _ what do you make of it? what seems to be the case, - what do you make of it? what seems to be the case, and i what do you make of it? ib'fi�*ué�*ii seems to be the case, and again as we said an hour ago, we still need to get more confirm

to detail, but the first wave apparently targeted air defences, so as to clear the way for a second and perhaps a third wave of attacks that themselves focus more on the military sites themselves. those military sites that were targeted after the first wave apparently, based on the incomplete information so far, included missile centres. with the information we have so far, only military sites have been targeted, and not the much bigger, more provocative nuclear or energy sites. 50 bigger, more provocative nuclear or energy sites. so not erha -s nuclear or energy sites. so not perhaps of _ nuclear or energy sites. so not perhaps of those _ nuclear or energy sites. so not perhaps of those more, - nuclear or energy sites. so not perhaps of those more, in i nuclear or energy sites. so not | perhaps of those more, in your words, provocative sites, but nevertheless, do you think this puts tehran in a more complicated situation now in terms of weighing up when, how, if, whether to retaliate? absolutely. and iran will face a very difficult dilemma in the next hours and days and weeks. on the one hand, when we were thinking about various

scenarios in terms of how this would play out, one thing that seems to be clear was that if israel was only targeting military sites, but in a fairly circumscribed way, that would clearly open the door for iran to agree to de—escalate, and to bring tension back down at least in part. if on the other hand, at the other extreme, israel had targeted nuclear and energy sites, the risk of retaliation by iran would rise significantly. but now we seem to be in a bit ofa significantly. but now we seem to be in a bit of a middle ground where, yes, only military sites seem to have been targeted, at least so far, but a lot of them seem to have been targeted. we will see when the dust settles, but it seems a fairly extensive attack. so the motivation for iran to retaliate after this will be stronger than if it had been only targeted strikes. but it still raises the same dilemma for iran, in that if it does retaliate, it will invite another israeli retaliation to the retaliation, still putting

us in the spiral of escalation that ultimately iran wants to avoid. i that ultimately iran wants to avoid. ., ., ., ~ that ultimately iran wants to avoid. ., ., ., ,, ., that ultimately iran wants to avoid. ., ., ., ~'., , avoid. i want to talk a bit more about _ avoid. i want to talk a bit more about the - avoid. i want to talk a bit more about the potential avoid. i want to talk a bit i more about the potential for the spiral of escalation or even the contagion effect that we could see in the region. when you zoom out more broadly, you look at the fact we have reports of explosions in syria, we don't know exactly the cause, also in iraq as well. there is the danger here, isn't there, for the potentialfor miscalculation, for forces to be dragged into further confrontations? absolutely. since the — confrontations? absolutely. since the beginning, - confrontations? absolutely. since the beginning, the i since the beginning, the theoretical argument i'm making that iran wants to avoid escalation, that it will calibrate its own provocations towards israel to try to send signals that it wants to avoid that escalation in which it would lose, all of that theoretical logic can collapse if there is an attack, either retaliation by iran or retaliation by iran or retaliation by iran or retaliation by an iran backed

militia in syria or iraq, or perhaps by the houthis in yemen who as far as i can tell tonight have been inactive but could retaliate against israel... if one of these retaliation is caused significant civilian casualties in israel, which has not been the case so far in terms of those retaliation is, that could provoke israel itself to really escalate things.- really escalate things. with re . ards really escalate things. with regards to _ really escalate things. with regards to iran _ really escalate things. with regards to iran right - really escalate things. with regards to iran right now, | really escalate things. with regards to iran right now, who will they be looking to have access to, to speak to, with our allies for example, the houthis, or on the international stage as well? —— their allies. international stage as well? —— theirallies. i international stage as well? -- their allies.— their allies. i expect the houthis _ their allies. i expect the houthis will _ their allies. i expect the houthis will come i their allies. i expect the houthis will come into l their allies. i expect the i houthis will come into play in the next hours and days. the houthis have the luxury, if you will, that are the iran backed groups, especially hamas and hezbollah or those in syria, do not have, which is 2000 kilometres of distance. that provides the houthis a measure

of protection to retaliate against israel with drones and missiles. while being partly shielded from israeli retaliation, not fully, but partly, because of distance. so i expect retaliation by the houthis is quite likely in the coming hours and days. beyond that, we have seen russia increasing its involvement more and more in terms of support to the houthis and proximity with iran. the two of them have been co—operating in ukraine a lot, so i expect they will be a continued proximity growing between iran and russia. lastly, talk to us a bit about the timing of this, without making too fine a point of it, we arejust 11 making too fine a point of it, we are just 11 days away from a us presidential election. what situation do you think that puts the administration in, and of course, vice president kamala harris, who is also running to be president? that's a very good _ running to be president? that's a very good question. - running to be president? that's a very good question. it - a very good question. it obviously has to factor a lot,

because the only source of external influence, to the extent that there is any on the israeli government, comes from the us. first of all, there is probably a bit of a sigh of relief in the white house right now that, at least as far as we can tell, israel is not targeting oil infrastructure in iran. because that would have potentially caused a rise in oil prices, which is something the biden administration would not have wanted, just two weeks before the election. that being said, from the israeli side, a difficult calculus to make that if there is an expectation... 0k... fit. if there is an expectation... ok... �* , ., ., ok... a trump administration would provide _ ok... a trump administration would provide more - ok... a trump administration would provide more flexibility to israel... irate would provide more flexibility to israel...— to israel... we have to leave it there. _ to israel... we have to leave it there, always _ to israel... we have to leave it there, always good - to israel... we have to leave it there, always good to i to israel... we have to leave it there, always good to talk| it there, always good to talk to you. more for you at the top of the hour. join ask then if you can. it is shaping up to be a rather mixed weekend of weather — and exactly what mix you get depends on exactly

where you are. across england and wales, it will often be dry, and there will be some spells of sunshine. scotland and northern ireland will bear the brunt of some outbreaks of rain and some rather brisk winds. this is saturday mornings weather chart — quite a complicated one, actually. this little area of low pressure to the southwest of us, just weakening and diving away southwards. but there is one weather front just bending its way in towards the southeast corner — that'll bring some cloud and some bits and pieces of rain northwards across the southeast of england and east anglia. elsewhere, good spells of sunshine, but for northern ireland and for the north and west of scotland, we will see these outbreaks of quite heavy rain pushing in, and the winds will be strengthening, as well — some pretty brisk winds up towards the northwest of scotland. temperatures north to south around 12—16 celsius. now, through saturday night, i think this cloud will tend to pull away from the southeast of england. this frontal system will push its way southwards and eastwards, and will weaken. many places will see some clear spells — and don't forget, through the early hours of sunday, the clocks go back an hour, so you do get an extra hour in bed.

it will also turn pretty chilly actually into the start of sunday morning, temperatures well down into single digits. i think there will be some places that get quite close to freezing, especially up towards the north of the uk. but that does mean most places will start sunday with some spells of sunshine. england and wales mostly holding on to that, but once again, northern ireland and scotland will see thickening cloud and some outbreaks of rain, and it will still be fairly windy here. temperatures down a little bit — nine celsius in lerwick, 1a in london and in plymouth. as we head on into monday, that weakening frontal system in the north pushes southwards and eastwards, so some bits and pieces of rain across england and wales. northern ireland and scotland largely dry, but there will be a lot of cloud, could be some misty, murky conditions in places and temperatures perhaps creeping upwards once again, around 13—16 celsius in most locations. as we head deeper into the coming week, well, high pressure really takes charge of the scene — and that is likely to lead to a fairly long spell of dry

weather for many places, but with some low clouds, some mist and fog. and then, there are signs that, by the end of the week, things will start to turn colder.

this let's remind you of that breaking news we're following this hour — that's those israeli strikes on iran. israeli media are reporting —

the operation is now finished, after three waves of airstrikes. conducting, "precise strikes on military targets in iran." the region has been bracing for an israeli retaliation against iran for its missile attack a few weeks ago. we are getting new pictures purporting to show some of the explosions in tehran. the bbc has not been able to independntly confirm this video — but it was shot by the associated press iran. take a listen. in response to months of continuance attacks from the regime in iran against the state of israel, right now the israeli defense force is conducting precise strikes on military targets in iran. the regime in iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking israel since october the 7th on seven fronts, including direct attacks from iranian soil. like every other sovereign country in the world, the state of israel has the right and the duty

to respond.