the party, after new footage emerged showing him punching a man to the ground. welcome. in the next ten minutes, the prime minister sir keir starmer is due to prepare the ground for wednesday's budget in a speech in which he's expected to warn of "unprecedented" economic challenges but will say the government will "run towards them". the government is expected to announce a series of tax hikes including national insurance paid by employers and spending cuts worth tens of billions of pounds. sir keir starmer will also promise "better days" ahead. the chancellor's statement is expected to be one of the most significant in recent history. the conservatives have already accused the government of "broken promises". let's speak to our political

correspondent helen catt. this is the big moment for chancellor rachel reeve so why are we hearing from the prime minister today? fix, are we hearing from the prime minister today?— minister today? a fair question. _ minister today? a fair question. usually - minister today? a fair question. usually in l minister today? a fair l question. usually in the minister today? a fair - question. usually in the lead up question. usually in the lead up to the budget we get a lot of central government saying we cannot talk about it, a lot of thatis cannot talk about it, a lot of that is around trying not to move the markets. this time, we have quite a lot of detail of the budget, and the broad thrust of the budget leaking out in advance and we will get more from keir starmer this morning. and we know from what has been said already the broad shape of it is in the form of tax rises, quite a lot of tax rises, and changing borrowing rules to fund investment and the government is portraying investment as the flip side of this, the upside, the bit of optimism. broadly what they are

trying to do is lay the ground because the last thing they want to do is spook the markets and get that reaction on wednesday that they do not want. ~ . ., ., _ ., want. we are also “oined by our business want. we are also joined by our business correspondence. - want. we are also joined by our business correspondence. we l business correspondence. we know in advance there will be matters that businesses and companies, big and small, will look out for.— look out for. this speech, as we have _ look out for. this speech, as we have heard, _ look out for. this speech, as we have heard, about- look out for. this speech, as i we have heard, about preparing the ground for political choices later in the week. one of those — choices later in the week. one of those choices that has been flagged — of those choices that has been flagged up is likely to be an increase _ flagged up is likely to be an increase in national insurance contributions paid by employers. that is causing nervousness particularly among small_ nervousness particularly among small businesses because it could — small businesses because it could potentially increase the cost — could potentially increase the cost of — could potentially increase the cost of hiring somebody and when — cost of hiring somebody and when you are a small business labour— when you are a small business labour costs are quite a high proportion of overall cost so if you — proportion of overall cost so

if you are _ proportion of overall cost so if you are thinking of expanding and taking on someone, and it cost you more, it can _ someone, and it cost you more, it can be — someone, and it cost you more, it can be a — someone, and it cost you more, it can be a worry so likely to be a — it can be a worry so likely to be a debate over that. the other— be a debate over that. the other issue is the potential increase _ other issue is the potential increase to the national living wage — increase to the national living wage. that could be a concern for small— wage. that could be a concern for small businesses because if you increase the amount you have — you increase the amount you have to — you increase the amount you have to pay at the bottom of the chain _ have to pay at the bottom of the chain generally speaking pay increases for others which can increase employment costs. it is can increase employment costs. it is about — can increase employment costs. it is about political choices and — it is about political choices and small businesses at the moment, fairto and small businesses at the moment, fair to say, there and small businesses at the moment, fairto say, there is concern — moment, fairto say, there is concern about what it will mean for them — concern about what it will mean for them. ~ , ., for them. we understand it will set the tone — for them. we understand it will set the tone for _ for them. we understand it will set the tone for the _ for them. we understand it will set the tone for the budget - for them. we understand it will set the tone for the budget but some of the language we are hearing we heard immediately after labour came to power? we did but i after labour came to power? - did but i want to pick up on the phrase about political choices, which is interesting because we know that is what is made in budgets but the

government is going to use that phrase today and say politics is always a choice and it is time to choose a clear path and embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality and what the government will try to do is draw a contrast with choices they say conservatives made and they say conservatives made and they are going to paint it as their approach to this as being honest about making hard choices and they are saying thatis choices and they are saying that is a choice we are making so interesting they are embracing that language while they prepare the ground. we have heard the language around the phrase working people, we have seen tested recently as to who the government was thinking of when they made the promise in their manifesto. partly that is linked to the specific pledge labour made that they would not increase taxes on working people and would not increase the rate of national insurance income tax or vat and

whether or not the things the government has said it is going to do would be likely to break that manifesto pledge. they maintain it would not. it is also the broader thought. working people is a phrase we hear from the government and will hear it again this morning when keir starmer says it is working people who pay the price when the government fails to deliver economic stability which is why there is a focus on who he means, who are the people who in effect, this government and its policies are for. . , government and its policies are for. ., , ., , for. that will be of interest to peeple _ for. that will be of interest to peeple in _ for. that will be of interest to people in the _ for. that will be of interest to people in the business | to people in the business world, particularly those self—employed who will no doubt regard themselves as working people even if the government definitions do not.— definitions do not. where the government _ definitions do not. where the government has _ definitions do not. where the government has tried - definitions do not. where the government has tried to - definitions do not. where the i government has tried to define working — government has tried to define working people it made suggestions that people who live suggestions that people who iive off— suggestions that people who live off assets should not be considered as working people but if— considered as working people but if you have small businesses where people do not take away sometimes, living off

dividends— take away sometimes, living off dividends when they can, would they be — dividends when they can, would they be considered working people? they would obviously consider— people? they would obviously consider themselves to be working _ consider themselves to be working people. there are concerns— working people. there are concerns that they might find themselves hit by tax increases when _ themselves hit by tax increases when in — themselves hit by tax increases when in reality they are precisely the people that according to the government they— according to the government they do— according to the government they do not want to hit. there is this— they do not want to hit. there is this confusion over working people — is this confusion over working people it _ is this confusion over working people. it makes sense as a political— people. it makes sense as a political slogan but when you -et political slogan but when you get into _ political slogan but when you get into the nitty—gritty it is difficult _ get into the nitty—gritty it is difficult to define. | get into the nitty-gritty it is difficult to define.— get into the nitty-gritty it is difficult to define. i know you will be watching _ difficult to define. i know you will be watching the - difficult to define. i know you will be watching the speech l will be watching the speech eagerly and no doubt we will speak to you in awhile. we expect to hear from the prime minister in around five minutes. but bear with us because sometimes these things drift. let's turn attention to the united states. there has been a furious reaction from republicans as well as democrats after a comedian at a donald trump rally called puerto rico a "floating island of garbage". the comedian, tony hinchcliffe, also said latinos "loved making babies".

a trump adviser distanced the republican from the joke and kamala harris attacked the rally as "dangerously divisive". the rally was held in donald trump's home state of new york. our senior north america correspondent, gary o'donoghue, was there. an iconic venue in donald trump's home town. he's wanted to hold a rally here for years. good evening, new york city! and a rare appearance from the former first lady. she's largely steered clear of this campaign. for the candidate himself, the focus was on his opponent. kamala, you're fired. get out! and on the main themes. i will end inflation. i will stop the invasion of criminals coming into our country, and i will bring back the american dream. donald trump had lined up his favourite famous supporters for this rally. from an old wrestler

to the eldest son to to the eldest son, to the world's richest man, all of whom echoed his central message on immigration. i will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals injail. going to kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible. cheering. as we enter the final week of campaigning, the polls are telling us that there is only one or two percentage points dividing donald trump and kamala harris in those key swing states. no one knows at this stage how this is going to go. gary o'donoghue, bbc news, at madison square garden in new york. meanwhile vice president kamala harris was in pennsylvania — one of the battleground states that could decide how this election plays out. the democratic nominee has been making the rounds through the city of philadelphia, where she attended a church service, stopped by a book store, a youth basketball facility, and a puerto rican restaurant.

ms harris later held a rally to cap off the day, where she brought up the conflict in the middle east — a key issue to voters who are unhappy with the biden administation's response to the israel—gaza war. i want to talk about gaza for a minute. 0k? we can and we must seize this opportunity to end this war and bring the hostages home. and i will do everything in my power to meet that end. with more on the details race and the polls, here's my colleague sumi somaskanda is in washington. we've seen the latest polling coming in from our partners here in the us, cbs news, and they have shown that on the national level, kamala harris has a one point percentage lead over donald trump. and in those critical seven battleground states, they are tied. it is a dead heat. and remember, it is those battleground states that matter the most. and that is why we're seeing

both candidates, both kamala harris and donald trump, out on the campaign trail trying to drum up as much support as possible, particularly among some of those persuadable voters, some of those people who might not have cast a ballot at all in the last election, hoping to somehow gather enough votes together to be able to win. it is important to say that both of these candidates gave us a bit of an idea of what their closing message might be. so donald trump, you heard in that report from our colleague gary there, speaking about economy, immigration, about crime. these are themes that we continue to hearfrom donald trump on the campaign trail. and he painted a fundamentally dark picture of where the country is right now. he talked about sinister and corrupt forces under way in the us, and he used this phrase "the enemy within". he's used this to talk about what he calls the radical marxists, left marxists in this country, but he's talked about his own democratic political opponents as enemies, a more dangerous, as he has said, than iran or russia or china, foreign adversaries.

so that is a message that donald trump doubled down on today. a few months ago, or a month or two ago, we heard this joyful warrior message from kamala harris talking about what she would do on abortion and on the economy. in the last week or so, we have seen that shift fairly significantly, where she's talking about donald trump as a threat to democracy, as a fascist, as she called him, and as someone who would rule as a dictator, she said on day one, referring to a message we'd heard from donald trump. so really getting a sense with eight days left of what the closing messages are going to be. with eight days to go, the polls are still very tight. if you draw out the overall trends, ratherthan the individual points, in the national polls, vice president kamala harris�*s lead has been slipping and is now down to around a single point. but the national vote share won't determine the winner. let's turn to the seven battleground states that could be decisive in this election. mr trump's poll leads in north carolina, arizona,

and georgia are between one and two points. other states like nevada, wisconsin and pennsylvania are even tighter. but none of the leads we're seeing are bigger than the margins of error that come with all polls. here in the uk, the labour backbencher, mike amesbury, has been suspended from the party after new footage emerged showing him punching a man to the ground. cheshire police, who are investigating the incident in frodsham, said a 55—year—old man had been interviewed voluntarily under caution. when earlierfootage of the incident emerged, mr amesbury, who represents runcorn and helsby, said he'd felt threatened. our political corrspondent, harry farley has more. in the top right of this footage is mike amesbury talking to a man. we can't hear what was said, but the labour mp appears to punch him and then hit him anotherfive times while he's on the ground. on saturday, this video, apparently of the same incident, emerged on social media. yes, iam.

and you won't threaten the mp ever again, will you? cheshire police have said they were called to reports of an assaultjust before 3am on saturday morning. they added, "a 55—year—old man has been voluntarily interviewed under caution by police and released pending further inquiries." mr amesbury hasn't responded to requests for comment, but on saturday he wrote on social media that the incident took place after he felt threatened. he added he had reported the incident to the police and would cooperate with them. mike amesbury. mr amesbury first became an mp in 2017. he was a shadow housing minister in opposition, but now sits as a backbencher. he won his seat comfortably in the election, with reform uk in second. after the second video was published on sunday, labour said mike amesbury�*s membership of the party has been administratively suspended. that means he can't attend party meetings or internal votes while the investigation is ongoing. and he's also lost the whip, so will not sit as a labour mp while the investigation is under way. in the week of labour's first budget in ia years, this is not what they wanted.

harry farley, bbc news in westminster. a prolific vietnamese people smuggler has shared details of the forgery, fraud and deceit used to enable migrants heading for the uk to gain european visas, opening a pathway to crossing the channel in small boats. over two thousand vietnamese have crossed the channel so far this year, making them the single highest national group in small boat arrivals. its also been the deadliest year on record for those attempting the crossing, with more than 50 people killed in the water between northern france and england. andrew harding has been speaking to the smuggler as part of an extensive investigation into why so many vietnamese people are choosing such a dangerous route to great britain.

as the death toll in the channel soars, another change is under way here, too. a new group filling the small boats heading to the uk and crowding into the makeshift migrant camps in northern france. vietnamese. almost overnight, they've become the single largest nationality being smuggled into britain by boat as new migrant routes through europe open up. these vietnamese tell me they're escaping business debts and loan sharks back home. are you aware that what you're trying to do here, this crossing to the uk, is incredibly dangerous and illegal? yes, i'm aware of that. and that doesn't stop you. why not? i have no other choice, he replies. if i return to vietnam, i have nothing there. i sold my house, but it wasn't enough to pay off my debt. in britain, meanwhile, the police are concerned that many of the vietnamese are being trafficked here, as has happened in the past. i'm arresting you on suspicion of facilitating the illegal entry of non—uk nationals into the united kingdom.

criminal gangs forcing the migrants into conditions of modern slavery. to understand more, we've made contact with a vietnamese smuggler in the uk. we'll call him tan. it's a very lucrative business. if you have a good reputation, the clients come to you. no force, no violence. tan arrived in britain earlier this year by small boat. he's now claiming asylum. tan himself became involved in smuggling years ago, running a gang in france at a time when people hid on lorries rather than taking small boats. later he moved back to vietnam and began forging documents for people trying to get visas in europe. we've agreed to keep his identity confidential in return for his insights into the smuggling business.

he's showing me here some of the documents that he's actually forged. he's got copies on his phone. one is for a bank statement, another is for some payslips. and he's still forging, and boasting of bribing banking officials in vietnam to provide false paperwork. i'm good at this work. people trust me. i neverfail. how do you justify what you do here? you've come to the uk illegally. you're still breaking the law by assisting other people to come here illegally. at the same time, you're taking british taxpayers' money to be fed, to be sheltered here in the uk. i just do paperwork. i help people to travel. i don't force them to take certain routes. why have you chosen to talk to us, to tell us all this about all the crimes that you've been party to? i want people in vietnam to understand the truth that life here is no better. they should stay at home rather

than make a dangerousjourney and get deeper into debt. andrew harding with that report. we are waiting for the prime minister to make a speech in the west midlands very shortly. this is ahead of the budget that the chancellor will announce. this is the scene live at the moment where the mayor of west midlands, richard parker, is making an introduction. we should see sir keir starmer appear shortly. also there is coverage on the bbc website live page, where reaction to the speech will be posted throughout the day. we can now listen in.— can now listen in. thank you, richard and _ can now listen in. thank you, richard and for _ can now listen in. thank you, richard and for everything i can now listen in. thank you, | richard and for everything you are doing for the west

midlands, it is such an important task. it is always great to be here in birmingham, a city at the heart notjust of our country, but also our plans for growth. as we announced two weeks ago, £500 million of new investment in battery storage that will create jobs of the future right here. that is a snapshot of the britain we are building this week and beyond. our economy stabilised. the foundation is fixed. hope for the future restored, another step taken on the long, difficult but resolute path towards a britain returned to the service of working people. applause i said on the steps of downing street, the day after the election, that this would be a

government for the working people of this country. that when the — people of this country. that when the cameras - people of this country. trust when the cameras stopped rolling, when the black door closed, we would carry their hopes and aspirations with us. that's the basic completely reasonable desire to want a better future for your family would become the driving purpose of this government. i will never stand here and tell you to feel better if you don't. i will never ask you to feel grateful for what you should expect as a given. trust in my project to return britain to the service of working people can only be earned through actions not words. change must be felt. but every decision that we have made, every decision that we will make in the future, will be made with working people in our

minds eyes. people who have mind's eyes. people who have been working harder for years. just to stand still. people doing the right thing, may be still finding a little bit of money to put away, paying their way, even in the cost—of—living crisis. but who feel this country no longer gives them or their children a fair chance. people stuck on 1538 00:21:28,435 --> 00:2