thousands of jobs. and corporate conundrum — reports starbucks is the latest big name to threaten to fire staff who won't come back to the office. live from london, this is business today — i'm sally bundock. good to have you with us. we start with europe's biggest bank — hsbc — which has seen its profitsjump by 10% from july to september. clocking in pre—tax profits of $8.5 billion across the quarter. the profits news comes hot on the heels of a major announcement last week of a major overhaul of the bank's structure — splitting geographically into eastern and western markets amid a backdrop of rising international tensions — particularly trade tensions between china and the us. this, all part of plans from the new boss — georges elhedery —

to simplify operations and cut costs at the 159—year—old bank. the changes are due to take effect next year. hsbc shares are listed both in london and hong kong. trading in hong kong, shares are up nearly 2.5% on this latest earnings report. michael makdad is senior equity analyst at investors morningstar. hello to you. this news is good for the ceo, what he wanted to deliver, betterthan for the ceo, what he wanted to deliver, better than expected results. , ., results. yes. the new ceo and also the new — results. yes. the new ceo and also the new cfo, _ results. yes. the new ceo and also the new cfo, continuity i also the new cfo, continuity from the previous ceo, the new ceo had been the cfo so in some senses we can see it is continuing the good results that the previous ceo had delivered and of course it is nice to see another solid quarter but i think the focus

will be on, now that georges elhedery is ceo, what more significant changes he will make. noel quinn benefited, also made a number of changes which really improved the performance of hsbc but also was benefiting after the pandemic from the tailwind of good interest rates and now the interest rates are starting down so we will see what the new ceo is going to do in order to maintain the good earnings momentum as the environment is less good. momentum as the environment is less aood. ., , ~ momentum as the environment is less aood. . , ~ ,�* momentum as the environment is less aood. . , ~ ., less good. last week, hsbc made the announcement _ less good. last week, hsbc made the announcement of _ less good. last week, hsbc made the announcement of huge - the announcement of huge restructuring, where east and west separate to a degree. we thought we might get more detail today, thought we might get more detailtoday, in thought we might get more detail today, in particular aboutjob cuts, but there is no new news on the restructuring today, is there?— today, is there? that is correct _ today, is there? that is correct. for _ today, is there? that is correct. for most - today, is there? that is correct. for most of. today, is there? that is| correct. for most of the details we will unfortunately... i don't know if it is unfortunate but those of us who would like to know the details will have to wait

until february when the full year results are announced. i think that in the conference call which will start in a few hours, the results were good so we will hear from the new cfo about the good results but i think the focus of the questions, even if hsbc is not going to release a lot of details today, it will be exactly on that. what can we expect in february? but exactly on that. what can we expect in february? but when it comes to keeping _ expect in february? but when it comes to keeping investors - comes to keeping investors happy they have announced an additional share buy—back of up to $3 billion. also an increase in the dividend. it is almost like they are trying to do all they can to keep everyone on board. ., , they can to keep everyone on board. . , _, . ,,�* board. that is correct. hsbc, although _ board. that is correct. hsbc, although the _ board. that is correct. hsbc, although the interest - board. that is correct. hsbc, although the interest rate - although the interest rate cycle has started to turn down, it is continuing to benefit, i think, from the good momentum they have had in the last couple of years and with their current capital levels they are in a position where they can maintain and increase the dividend and also continue announcing these kind of buy—backs. one of the things that helps is also that hsbc

has been steadily removing some of its risk assets through sales, such as we saw in argentina. some are smaller but we had canada. also that frees up we had canada. also that frees up capital so we will continue to see these buy—backs which i think will really help to keep shareholders happy. fik. think will really help to keep shareholders happy. 0k. michael makdad from _ shareholders happy. 0k. michael makdad from morningstar, - shareholders happy. 0k. michael makdad from morningstar, thank you for your analysis on those results that have come through from hsbc. more on those trade tensions now, and moving to the us. it's now a week to the big day — the us presidential election — with both candidates seemingly neck—and—neck for the topjob. but as the result draws near concerns grow around the business world on what the outcome could mean for global trade — particularly when it comes to tariffs — as our north america business correspondent michelle fleury has been finding out. worksman cycles is america's oldest active bicycle—maker. it's been around since 1898, so they know what trade

policy can do to american manufacturing. so tariffs haven't helped you create more jobs? it basically hurt our bottom line, with no benefit. owner wayne sosin is scared of what may be coming next — more tariffs. rather than help, donald trump's 2018 tariffs hurt his business, because the parts he needs — tyres, seats and pedals — all come from abroad. up until recently we ate all the costs of the tariffs, but we have no choice but to pass some of this on to consumers. and also the big effect on us is if we weren't paying these tariffs, think about what we could have done with that money — could have made investment in machinery and personnel to grow our business. not that long ago, republicans were all about free trade while, ifanything, democrats lean towards protectionism for local industries and jobs. but then donald trump arrived on the scene and flipped the debate. tariffs.

the self—described tariff man, donald trump, views import duties as a way to grow america's manufacturing sector, by making foreign countries foot the bill. we're going to have a - manufacturing boom and a lot of it's just taxationi policy, tariff policy. they're going to come roaring back. - when they have to pay tariffs to come in, but they have - incentive to build here, they're going to come i roaring back. the republican nominee is eyeing 20% tariffs on all foreign imports to the united states, and 60% or more on goods made in china. on the campaign trail, kamala harris frequently mocks donald trump over tariffs. he will impose what i call a trump sales tax because he has an intention of putting an at least 20% tax on everyday necessities. keep working... yet she still appears willing to support some tariffs on china — forfavoured industries like semiconductors. all of which points to the shifting winds in washington.

there certainly is less enthusiasm around pursuing what we might call an affirmative trade agenda in terms of liberalisation, openness, reduction of barriers. and i think these other tools that are now being used — tariffs, restrictions on foreign investment, export controls, industrial policy — they're probably here to stay. restricting imports was meant to help workers and businesses like wayne sosin�*s. not so, he says. speaking from the bicycle industry, ijust think what they've done is discouraging companies like us from continuing to have american people making our bikes. all of which leaves free trade without a clear champion in the race for the white house. michelle fleury, bbc news, new york. so the outcome of the election is set to have huge implications for businesses in the us and around the world. but against this backdrop we have a stock market that has been booming — with wall street's s&p 500

index up over 20% this year. so how are investors reacting to promises of tax cuts, import tariffs and other proposed policies? terry haines is the founder of pangaea policy, which advises investors on political developments. what is your advice to investors with one week to go? good morning. other than have your salt shaker handy and perhaps a bottle of your favourite libation, i think it is fundamentally watch congress, watch the outcome of the congressional elections, because in the american system the vast majority of laws and regulations are made or approved by congress. so congress has really the ability

to craft a policy. it was congress that created the 2017 tax law during the trump did. my tax law during the trump did. my advice is watch the make—up of congress. what is likely to happen now is we will have a split congress politically of democratic house and a republican senate. that will bobtail most of the extreme promises that both candidates are making but will also have consequences that looked much more like the status quo today. for example, markets are very concerned about fiscal debt and deficit and i think there will probably not be any change to the unsustainable deficits that we see today. to the unsustainable deficits that we see today-— the unsustainable deficits that we see today. to what extent is art markets _ we see today. to what extent is art markets not _ we see today. to what extent is art markets not pricing - we see today. to what extent is art markets not pricing in - we see today. to what extent is art markets not pricing in an - art markets not pricing in an outcome of this election? because, as we have heard over and over again, because, as we have heard over and overagain, it because, as we have heard over and over again, it is so close at this point, it is very

difficult to call who will win in the end. what i markets doing on the run—up? in the end. what i markets doing on the run-up? what markets — doing on the run-up? what markets are _ doing on the run-up? what markets are doing - doing on the run-up? what markets are doing on - doing on the run-up? what markets are doing on the i doing on the run-up? what i markets are doing on the run doing on the run-up? what - markets are doing on the run up is looking at the presidential election is a bright, shiny object that is the main event, and the determiner of a lot of market policies. my advice all along has been that is simply not true, that the make—up of congress is much more of the determiner and so what we will get is kind of a muddled result with, regardless of whether mr trump or ms harris becomes next president, you will likely have a split congress which makes it impossible to have a clean cut results that happened in 2016 when the markets thought that they would be a democratic sweep and there was actually a republican suite. this time, neither of those outcomes are very likely at all.— very likely at all. from the oint very likely at all. from the point of — very likely at all. from the point of view _ very likely at all. from the

point of view of _ very likely at all. from the point of view of financial . point of view of financial markets we have such a busy week. we have huge companies reporting their earnings, five of the magnificent seven, for example. is the focus very much on businesses, earnings, what is happening from that point of view as opposed to this election which, as you say, is too difficult to predict? yeah, i think s0- — too difficult to predict? yeah, i think so. all— too difficult to predict? yeah, i think so. all right. _ too difficult to predict? yeah, i think so. all right. super. i i think so. all right. super. thank you _ i think so. all right. super. thank you your _ i think so. all right. super. thank you your time, - i think so. all right. super. thank you your time, good j i think so. all right. super. i thank you your time, good to get your take on what is currently going on. a big story emerging late yesterday. to europe's biggest car—maker — volkswagen — as it's on a collision course with workers. according to the head of the company's works council, vw is planning to shut at least three of its factories in germany, cut salaries by at least 10%, and lay off tens of thousands of workers. volkswagen said in a statement it would make proposals for how to cut labour costs on wednesday — when the car—maker releases its latest results. vw has been negotiating for weeks with unions over its plans to overhaul its business as it grapples with high

energy and labour costs. stiff competition from china has exacerbated their troubles and weakening demand for evs. if the plan goes ahead these would be the company's first ever plant closures in germany in its 87—year history and set up a battle with powerful unions and politicians in germany, where vw has 300,000 employees. joseph mccabe is president & ceo of autoforecast solutions. good to talk to you. we knew this was coming. now the details are being announced we will get more tomorrow when the company reports its latest earnings news. what is ahead of vw in your opinion?— vw in your opinion? thank you for having _ vw in your opinion? thank you for having me _ vw in your opinion? thank you for having me on. _ vw in your opinion? thank you for having me on. we - vw in your opinion? thank you for having me on. we see - for having me on. we see probably the first one in the cross hairs and dresden as

another option. working at about 40,000 to 50,000 units swing in terms of annual production drop. about 3500 employees that we see in the cross hairs. again, we will see how it plays out, but these are the three most likely plants. the idea is these plants i are too heavily invested into high—priced electric vehicles that early adopters have already adopted, or redundant plants like the dresden. there are three other plants doing the same unit and they don't need the capacity.— the same unit and they don't need the capacity. fourth vw, this is a very _ need the capacity. fourth vw, this is a very bitter— need the capacity. fourth vw, this is a very bitter pill- need the capacity. fourth vw, this is a very bitter pill to - this is a very bitter pill to have to swallow. closure of plants in germany for the first time in its history, thousands ofjobs time in its history, thousands of jobs to time in its history, thousands ofjobs to go. it will be difficult for this company to see this through, won't it, in terms of the politics and dealing with unions? definitely. the problem is we created this problem for

ourselves. electrification turned out to be a governmental and environmental agenda not a consumer initiative. when electric vehicles are more expensive and infrastructure issues and big cost ideas, range anxiety. there is this demand pushed on manufactures on a global basis to help the carbon footprint. now we are finding out, and we have seen this for years, balanced portfolio to get this done. volkswagen is one of the first ones in this space with a great product but again very expensive product in this area. so now they are going to dial it back to a more balanced portfolio like every manufacturer, just so happens the ones in the cross hairs right now. they are not the only ones who will feel the pain in the next five years or so. ~ , ,., y pain in the next five years or so. ~ , ,., , ., pain in the next five years or so. ~ , ,., y ., y so. absolutely not. they will have to restructure - so. absolutely not. they will have to restructure other - have to restructure other rivals, for sure. you are sounding, even though the outlook is extremely

challenging in the short term, you sound optimistic that vw will sort itself out in the end, despite the fact it has very difficult negotiations ahead with unions and also a lot of flak from politicians including the chancellor of germany. including the chancellor of germany-— including the chancellor of germany. including the chancellor of german . , ., , ., , germany. yes, we do. the plants we look at _ germany. yes, we do. the plants we look at our _ germany. yes, we do. the plants we look at our low _ germany. yes, we do. the plants we look at our low volume - we look at our low volume plants. that is not to discount the workers, it is very important that they have jobs. but these are smaller plants, not 100,000, 200,000. volkswagen has a huge footprint, we see them as the lead at the end of the decade in the electric vehicle space where everyone is pushing. at the second the headwinds across the second the headwinds across the whole industry are very, very difficult with this polarising idea that consumers just are not consuming the products manufacturers are building and they will have to retool and rethink their strategies for a much long—term success. strategies for a much long-term success. , ., . . strategies for a much long-term success. , , a ., , strategies for a much long-term success. �* , a . , . ~ success. joseph mccabe, thank ou for success. joseph mccabe, thank you for your — success. joseph mccabe, thank

you for your take _ success. joseph mccabe, thank you for your take on _ success. joseph mccabe, thank you for your take on that - success. joseph mccabe, thank you for your take on that news | you for your take on that news from vw or. you for your take on that news from w on— staying with cars, ford shares fell by more than 5% in after—hours trading after reporting a mixed set of results for the july to september quarter. investors were disappointed as the automaker said it expects to meetjust the lower end of its full—year profit guidance. ritika gupta has the details. ford reported third—quarter earnings after the bell on monday, beating analysts' expectations on revenue, but guiding to the lower end of its full—year forecast. the automaker now sees about $10 billion in earnings before interest and taxes this year, instead of its prior range of $10 to $12 billion. third—quarter profit, however, fell less than expected. results were hurt by a $1 billion charge it took on cancelling production of a 3—row electric suv in august, saying that the vehicle could no longer be profitable in the timeline required. ford is facing around a $5 billion loss on its electric vehicles this year,

despite cost improvements. the ceo, jim farley, has made tough decisions about the company's ev line—up, as competition from tesla and chinese automakers has intensified over the past year. ford's results follow rival general motors blow—out general motors blow—out third—quarter earnings and consistent profit guidance increases for the year. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.

you are with business today. to china now, and reports of a shift in policy from the government to tackle record low birth rates. beijing has announced a raft of measures — from tv programmes to tax breaks — to encourage young people to marry and have children. as the world's second largest economy struggles with weak growth rates and an ageing population. mariko oi is in our asia

business hub for us. mariko, what is going on? well, ou have mariko, what is going on? well, you have to _ mariko, what is going on? well, you have to say _ mariko, what is going on? well, you have to say it _ mariko, what is going on? well, you have to say it is _ mariko, what is going on? well, you have to say it is a _ you have to say it is a challenge faced by many developed economies in this part of the war. singapore, japan, south korea and taiwan are now china, once known for its infamous one—child policy. the thing is, all these governments have been trying to encourage women to have more children for years if not decades. this new measure from beijing is quite new and unique, to create tv shows, films and plays to promote, in their words, films and plays to promote, in theirwords, marriage films and plays to promote, in their words, marriage and child—bearing culture. beijing is also telling young couples to stay away from expectations of lavish weddings in order to lower the barriers to get married. other more conventional policies, as you mentioned, include tax breaks and better access to childcare but i have to say, these conventional policies have been tested by other countries

before and they didn't seem to have worked to boost the birth rates in those countries. i was actually asked experts why asian governors keep spending money on these measures knowing the birth rate haven't gone up and the answer was quite fascinating, without them the birth rate could have been actually lower. shrinking population means a smaller workforce and, as you said, these economies also have an ageing population problem, meaning the financial burden on today's working generations to support the elderly has been increasing. but we will see if these tv dramas and films could do the trick. taste these tv dramas and films could do the trick-— do the trick. we shall see. we are doing _ do the trick. we shall see. we are doing our _ do the trick. we shall see. we are doing our bit, _ do the trick. we shall see. we are doing our bit, we - do the trick. we shall see. we are doing our bit, we have - do the trick. we shall see. we l are doing our bit, we have nine between us, so what can you say? it keeps us both very busy. i will see you again soon. let's get some of the day's other news now. reports in a number of news outlets suggest that the uk's national minimum wage will be increased by up to 6% next year as part of the budget on wednesday. the move would see more than a million low—paid workers in line for a pay rise. however, businesses are warning

that if the expected rise turns out to be true — it will come alongside an increase in the national insurance contributions they must pay on wages. the largest american bank — jpmorgan chase — has begun suing some us customers for cheque fraud — saying they improperly withdrew funds by taking illegal advantage of a temporary technical glitch that went viral on tiktok. the glitch in late august let customers deposit big cheques in atms and withdraw funds immediately before the checks could clear — even if the checks later bounced. share of donald trump's social media company — trump social — surged more than 21% on monday following the presidential candidate's blockbuster rally in new york's madison square garden. former president trump owns nearly 60% of the company, making his stake worth over $5 billion by the close of trade.

and finally to hybrid working, a hot topic since the pandemic. the coffee chain starbucks has threatened to fire its corporate staff who fail to work at least three days a week in the office. that's according to reports from bloomberg. last year, dozens of starbucks staff signed a petition protesting against the call for a return to office working. but chief executive brian niccol says the office is the best place for staff collaboration, as he tries to reverse falling sales. jane foley is head of fx strategy at rabobank. good morning to you. this is the trend, getting people back in the office. whether they like it or not.— in the office. whether they like it or not. that is exactly ri . ht like it or not. that is exactly right and — like it or not. that is exactly right and you _ like it or not. that is exactly right and you have - like it or not. that is exactly right and you have heard - like it or not. that is exactly i right and you have heard quite a lot about this over the last year or so and invite recently there was a lot of studies about amazon. they were the previous big company to call

their employees back. it is quite interesting because there are various views out there that when the labour market was very tight, so just past the pandemic, employees had a bit more power and they were demanding a bit more flexibility, perhaps more wellness, but now that the labour market is cooling down it would appear that the power is back on the employers and it would seem that many of them at least would like to get their employees back in the office more frequently. 50 employees back in the office more frequently.— more frequently. so it is interesting, _ more frequently. so it is interesting, obviously i more frequently. so it is. interesting, obviously the debate and the argument and discussion about this, but this report, if confirmed, a starbucks saying there isn't actually a choice on this and it is similar with other big corporations, that is where things get difficult, isn't it? that's right. some people say, look, is this really lay—offs ljy look, is this really lay—offs by stealth? inevitably some workers, may be older workers

moving towards retirement, people with a lot of other commitments, may be, they will not be able to do it or they are not prepared to go back to the office for five days a week. they will inevitably leave. there have been accusations at companies that one of the reasons that they might do that is to force these lay—offs with perhaps avoiding costly redundancy packages to. it is interesting because for brian niccol, the new chief executive, he is proposing a lot of changes including simplifying the menu and also something to try to turn starbucks around but now it could be a new rival on the scene, china's biggest coffee chain is planning to enter the us market, undercutting rivals and starbucks is one of those. backin and starbucks is one of those. back in china it has already been challenging starbucks since luckin was founded in 2017. it is potentially

challenging starbucks in its home turf. what we know about luckin is it tends to have cheap products so maybe a cup of coffee for $2 or $3 as opposed to $4.5 for starbucks. this could be something that could come about as soon as early as next year. many people in the us are already familiar with the brand because there has been a lot of scandal when it first tried to ipo in 2019. 0k. on it first tried to ipo in 2019. ok. on cue, as ever, for your time. maybe jane needs a strong coffee. it is early in london. i will see you soon. hello, there. a big blocking area of high pressure is likely to bring us a very quiet spell of weather now for the rest of october and into the start of november. it's going to be mostly dry thanks to the high pressure system, and quite mild, with our air source coming in from the south—west. there will be a little bit of sunshine at times, but will often be cloudy. we could start the days a bit

misty and foggy in places. so for tuesday, we're losing the weather front. high pressure will be building in across the country, but we maintain this mild air mass which will continue to move up from the south. just the chance of a plunge of cold air, i think will just avoid us and dive into the near continent to the east of us. tuesday, though, will be a rather cloudy start for many. we'll see further spits and spots of rain across england and wales, particularly towards the south. but even here we'll see some holes appearing in the clouds for some sunny spells, with the best of the sunshine across eastern scotland and north—east england, and the cloud thick enough for some spots of rain for north—western scotland. temperature—wise again mild, mid to maybe high teens. now for tuesday night it stays dry. i think we lose the spots of light rain and drizzle across england and wales. a few clear spells, but there'll be a lot of cloud, some mist and fog. temperatures again mild, eight to 11 degrees. this area of high pressure builds in across the country, as you can see for wednesday. so winds will be very light. so that'll be a perfect recipe for some mist and fog to greet

us on wednesday morning, pretty much anywhere, but i think greatest chance through central and southern parts of the uk where winds will be lightest. some of that fog may lift into low clouds, so some areas staying grey all day, but other areas will see the sunshine poking through and that will lift temperatures up into the mid to high teens. where we hold on to the cloud and the fog, though, could be closer to the low teens. little change as we head into thursday with this area of high pressure dominating. maybe subtle changes taking place across the far north of scotland into the northern isles, the winds picking up here, some outbreaks of rain, but for much of the mainland it's dry. again, could be misty, foggy start for england and wales, where winds will be lightest. then into the afternoon, variable cloud, some sunny spells, mostly dry, temperature again mid—to—high teens. looking pretty good for halloween evening. dry for many, especially england and wales. there's a chance of wetter, windy weather for the north and the west of scotland, but the vast majority will stay dry. and for the end of the week into the weekend, it's much the same — dry and settled.

good morning. welcome to breakfast with rogerjohnson and nina warhurst. our headlines today... ahead of tomorrow's budget, the chancellor, rachael reeves, confirms the nhs will get the funding needed to deliver an extra 40,000 appointments each

week and new equipment. the biggest capital budget since 2010 in our national health service to invest in the new scanners, the diagnostic equipment, the radiography equipment that our nhs desperately needs. good morning. what would the bank of dave do with the budget? dave fishwick takes us on a tour of his home town, burnley, to hear what people and businesses there want to hear from the chancellor. international concern over aid to gaza, after israel's parliament votes to limit the un's palastinian refugee agency's operations. teenagers leaving care need more support — a national charity says it's a postcode lottery when it comes to starting an independent life. the man behind the pen for the children's favourite the gruffalo shares his technique and his new project.

good morning.