live from london, this is business today. i'm sally bundock. we start here in the uk, where the big day has finally come around, with the new government set to unveil its first budget. a huge day for the uk's first female chancellor rachel reeves, who is due to deliver the details to parliament at around 12.30pm this aftenoon. and as budgets go, this is a big one for the new labour government, with its much touted pro—growth, pro—workeragenda that will set the agenda for years to come. thanks to some official briefings and unauthorised leaks, we already know quite a bit about what's to come. for example, an increase in the national minimum wage from april, with three million low—paid workers getting a pay rise of more than 6%.

but what more can we expect? here's our economics editor faisal islam. this is going to be a big budget of change, one for the history books. where will it sit in the past half century of chancellors and tax—raising budget? here is all of them over the past half century, red for labour, blue for conservatives. a small number of tax cuts below the line. where each general election. and you can see a pattern of big tax rising budget in the first year or two after an election. getting the bad news out of the way early on. let's take the biggest of those historic tax riding budgets. as a proportion of the whole economy. norman lamont there. denis healey a couple of times in the 70s. and rishi sunak�*s mid pandemic tax rise. where

will rachel reeves sit among her male predecessors? this is where we think her budget will stand, not far off the biggest tax rise in recent memory, expected to be about £40 billion per year. let's dig down on that. about half of that will be in the form of a rise in employer national insurance. not, say labour, part of their manifesto promise. the rest could come from capital gains, inheritance tax, may be fuel duty. it seems like a huge amount, but previous government did not leave enough cash in their day—to—day kitty for public services. they say there is a £22 billion hole in spending. £5 billion in manifesto promises, like nhs queues. and to end austerity, to protect all department budgets, from inflation. at least £16 billion per year. and this doesn't

include one—off costs of billions for compensation for inflected blood and post office horizon scandals. the important thing is, whatever they spend down here will have to be matched by tax rises here, not borrowing. the chancellor's strict new stability rule. many details to look out for. we have heard about the national living wage up nearly 7%. will rachel reeves find £6 billion to avoid a rise in fuel duty? as well as the winter fuel allowance, further cuts to welfare. how much? and perhaps a carrot for small businesses, rising worker costs and business rates. all in all, a big change in direction, public services getting an emergency injection funded by equally big tax rises aimed at business. and some extra borrowing to increase long—term investment. all of this while trying to keep the markets, and rates low. —— to keep the markets

calmed. faisal islam there. for more, i'mjoined by simon french, chief economist at panmure liberum. the bbc live page is up and running on the website. lovely to see you, simon. here we are at last. i feel like we have been talking about this budget since labour were elected in july. budget since labour were elected injuly. your thoughts? i think that report was the right context. 0nly i think that report was the right context. only the third change of administration budget in my lifetime, since 1979. you have 2010, 1997, when the uk government changed colour. and therefore, the context is the unveiling of a vision for the

uk economy and the size of the public sector, how the public sector is going to support growth, which parts of the economy are going to be taxed. you operably going to do that in yourfirst you operably going to do that in your first fiscal event because you recognise politics get ever harder the longer you are in office. —— you are probably going to do that. the anticipation _ probably going to do that. the anticipation of _ probably going to do that. the anticipation of what rachel reeves will be saying at the dispatch box, she has to raise tens of billions of pounds to inject growth, but already there is real concern is that businesses, small and medium—sized businesses, who fuel growth in the uk, are going to be hit hard by her announcements. it’s going to be hit hard by her announcements.— going to be hit hard by her announcements. it's the most delicate balancing _ announcements. it's the most delicate balancing act, - announcements. it's the most l delicate balancing act, because rachel reeves, the chancellor, has got one eye on financial markets and ensuring that the experience of liz truss and kwasi kwarteng just over two yea rs kwasi kwarteng just over two years ago, who unveiled a lot of surprises to the markets on

the fiscal side, were in effect booted out by the reaction of gilt markets, sovereign debt markets in the uk. the response has been rather different in the run—up here. sterling trading higher than the 4th of july. 0pinions have in higher and they have tracked the united states where there is a big election next week. framing expectations for interest rates around the world. but on the other side, you are right, she has to try and finance some of the elements of the public sector that she feels have been deprived, a lot of cash over the last 14 or 15 years. she seems to be putting most of the onus on raising that tax on businesses, at a time when the national living wage going north of £12 per hour and a big workers' rights package expected to cost employers around £5 billion per year. do ou around £5 billion per year. do you think she is getting it

right? i you think she is getting it riuht? ~ , �* , you think she is getting it riuht? «m v ., right? i think she's done there economic— right? i think she's done there economic lights. _ right? i think she's done there economic lights. pre-briefing, j economic lights. pre—briefing, i'm not a fan of that, but the overall commitment towards capital spending was a sensible approach. —— i think she's done the macroeconomics right. they have committed not to raise income tax, vat and the employee part of national insurance. having done that, there's been so much speculation about the other taxes. relatively small but influential taxes for small pockets of the business community and that has chilled business sentiment, we saw the data this week from the lloyd's business barometer and also the consumer confidence data. simon, great to get your take,

we will speak to you again soon. the bbc live page is now up and running. this will keep you company today and will be updating constantly on the very latest. the chancellor is expected at the dispatch box at around 12:30pm today. live coverage for uk viewers starts at nine o'clock this morning. she has the same as moment where she is outside 11 downing st for the press and the photographs. it is a historic day, the first woman as chancellor to deliver a budget in the uk, we will be across it on bbc news. but now, other stories. to the european union, where a raft of new tariffs on chinese electric vehicles comes into force today. the measures, brought in to combat what the eu says are unfairly subsidised cheap electric vehicles flooding the market, see duties rise

from 10% to up to 45% for the next five years. a move opposed by the eu's biggest economy and huge car exporter, germany. germany argues the move will not make european car—makers more efficient. those comments came ahead of news this week of major restructuring at volkswagen, with the potential closure of three german factories and tens of thousands ofjobs losses. we'll be expecting more clarity on that later today alongside vw�*s latest results. anna—marie baisden is head of autos research at bmi, a fitch solutions company. lovely to see you, let's start with the tariffs. they come into effect today, what do you think is the impact?— think is the impact? well, we've already _ think is the impact? well, we've already seen - think is the impact? well, we've already seen salesl think is the impact? well, | we've already seen sales of chinese vehicles rising over the last couple of months, as consumers are pre—empting the

tariffs. in that respect, it's likely we will start to see a drop in sales of chinese vehicles. in terms of the impact on the chinese brand themselves, it's likely they had such a competitive edge that it's not going to make the biggest difference. they will still be able to have a margin on these vehicles because they did have such a price advantage. so the european manufacturers themselves, there may be some advantage, but as the car makers themselves are saying and as you just said, this only really tackle is one part of the problem. it deters the competition to some extent, but it's not doing anything positive in terms of the car makers themselves. in the same way the chinese government has been supporting its own car—makers. been supporting its own car-makers.— been supporting its own car-makers. �* , , ., car-makers. and this comes on the day vw _ car-makers. and this comes on the day w is _ car-makers. and this comes on the day vw is due _ car-makers. and this comes on the day vw is due to _ car-makers. and this comes on the day vw is due to announce | the day vw is due to announce its latest results, and more detail on its huge restructuring plans, which it is forced to make. vw doesn't

want to close factories in germany for the first time in its history but it has no choice, really. this issue of cheap chinese cars as part of that story. it cheap chinese cars as part of that story-— that story. it is part of it. another— that story. it is part of it. another part _ that story. it is part of it. another part is _ that story. it is part of it. another part is declining | another part is declining demand for vehicles in europe in general. 0ne demand for vehicles in europe in general. one of the reasons we are looking at potential closures is that these factories and others in germany have been performing well below capacity for some time since before the pandemic. just vw alone has been producing 2 million units a slant prior to the pandemic. just because of weakening demand in the region. --2 —— 2 million units fewer than prior to the pandemic. we are now reaching the point where they have put it off as long as

possible but now they have to consider extreme cost—cutting measures. consider extreme cost-cutting measures-_ consider extreme cost-cutting measures. ., ., measures. thank you as ever for our measures. thank you as ever for your take _ measures. thank you as ever for your take on _ measures. thank you as ever for your take on the _ measures. thank you as ever for your take on the car _ measures. thank you as ever for your take on the car sector. - to spain now, which has been seeing record numbers of migrants arriving on its shores this year, putting the issue of immigration firmly at the centre of political debate. but it's also raised questions about the place of migrants within the spanish economy. despite healthy spanish economic growth, there are concerns the country's low birth rate could cause long—term problems unless more immigrants are brought into the workforce. guy hedgecoe reports. asylum seekers play bingo in the hotel where they are being housed, near the city of leon. many have harrowing stories, such as michael, who left his native ghana to escape a local feud which saw his father and sister killed. i was so happy, i was so happy. all my troubles, people trying to kill me.

it's over. in spain, you are safe. this hotel has been converted into a stay centre, housing around 170 sub—saharan africans who arrived in spain recently. a local ngo gives them advice on labour law and teaches them spanish. with a view to helping them find jobs. translation: we are in contact with a lot of companies - in leon, in industries like construction, forest management and farming. they get in touch because they know we have people who want to work. this man from mali recently started working in a nearby factory that makes products from marble and granite. translation: we need a lot | of manpower in this profession, but it's tough, it gets cold. you have to lift heavy weight. so it's not thejob many young

people here want to do, so immigrants provide an important opportunity for us. more than 38,000 undocumented migrants have arrived in spain so far this year. most of them travelling from africa to the canary islands. while these arrivals have generated fierce political debate, many believe the economic case for them to join the workforce is overwhelming. spain's central bank, whose headquarters are right behind me, recently published a report underlining the importance of immigration for the national economy. in fact, it said that, over the next 30 years, spain's going to need around 25 million immigrants in order to keep the economy on track. the low birth rate means the number of working age spaniards is shrinking. so you want to grow gdp and pay pensions for all the retiring baby boomers. then you need to grow

gdp in a different way. because there will not be as many people, unless we bring them in through immigration. spain represents a new life for these migrants. but their arrival could also mean a new start for the spanish economy. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news.

to the us now, where google's parent company alphabet is the first of the big five tech titans to report this week, posting a jump in profits after the bell on tuesday, driven by strong growth in its cloud computing business. ritika gupta has the details from new york for us. alphabet reported third—quarter sales that topped analyst

expectations — the parent expectations — the parent company of google was helped company of google was helped by steady growth in its digital by steady growth in its digital advertising business, advertising business, and an ai—drivenjump and an ai—drivenjump in demand for cloud services. in demand for cloud services. alphabet reported a profit of alphabet reported a profit of $2.12 per share while revenue $2.12 per share while revenue increased 15% to $88 billion. increased 15% to $88 billion. their ceo said investments their ceo said investments in al were paying off in use and sales in its search in al were paying off in use and cloud businesses. as the main search business as the main search business matures, google is betting matures, google is betting on growth in its cloud division on growth in its cloud division which supplies computing power, which supplies computing power, software and services software and services to other companies. to other companies. google drew more cloud google drew more cloud customers using ai expertise customers using ai expertise to gain ground on rivals to gain ground on rivals amazon and microsoft. amazon and microsoft. staying with tech, staying with tech, and another set of results, and another set of results, from snapchat�*s from snapchat�*s parent company, snap. parent company, snap. the social media giant posted the social media giant posted better than expected earnings better than expected earnings for thejuly to september for thejuly to september quarter, with sales up some 15% year on year.

quarter, with sales up

advertising business, which prompts users to take a specific action, and that has beenin specific action, and that has been in an effort to attract more small and medium—sized businesses to the platform. a weak spot, though, for snap in q weak spot, though, for snap in 0 three, which will continue to be a weak spot in q 0 three, which will continue to be a weak spot in 0 four is big brand advertising, be a weak spot in 0 four