i mean, where do we go from here? i think it's... like, what are we? we're now gearing up to the stage, right? we're recording this. it's five days out, so i think we're all stuck. i felt when we were doing our rehearsals just now, it was interesting because it helps crystallise what you're looking at. and so what are we all looking at on the actual night and what are we? i'd love to give our kind of viewers titbits about what they should take away. well, i guess what i've been. thinking about is, ok if we get well, i guess what i've been thinking about is, ok if we get into that election night, what is a good night for kamala harris look like? i mean, what do you guys think? because i've been thinking a lot about... awin! well, there's really only one. one good outcome. all right, we're done. we're done with that conversation. so that'll be quick.

so, the way it's like following breadcrumbs in hansel and gretel, you are looking for signposts to a good night for one candidate or another. and if we kind of look at kamala harris first, i guess one signpost would be very big turnout in the areas where democrats tend to do well. so, suburbs of big cities. suburbs of philadelphia, suburbs of detroit, suburbs of milwaukee, those big cities in the blue wall states. if she if we see bigger numbers there than we saw in 2020, for example. and i think it's always worth comparing. yeah. then you could say, oh, this is looking like what the harris campaign was hoping for on election night. so, in a way, it's numbers as much as anything. it's a numbers game. i mean, that's what we're hearing from the campaigns in these last few days. it's turn out, turn out, turn out, get the vote out, use whatever celebrities, whatever you have at your disposal to get people out. and i think early in the night before we have any projections, when we see those exit polls bringing the information to us. and that's real voters that have been polled as they leave the polling centres.

are they women? what age are they? what ethnic background are they? you know, what financial background.... do they have a college degree? what's their education level? what's their view on abortion? all of these things that will get from the exit poll, the campaigns are going to be looking so closely at that. if they see people motivated by abortion, reproductive rights over economy, are they seeing women coming out? are they seeing gaggles of young people? that's the big point for me is what is the main issue those voters and those exit polls are actually pointing to. because if in these last few weeks, kamala harris has really been ramping up that contrast between her and donald trump, right. that brings up the issue of democracy. but she's also been hammering home reproductive rights and abortion. and if you look at the economic numbers right now, they are not

far off from where democrats and presidentjoe biden would want them to be. inflation has cooled even on grocery prices, which we talked about last last week. gas prices have come down, grocery prices have come down. but people still don't feel good about the economy. and if that's what voters are naming again as their number one issue, if that trumps for voters abortion, reproductive rights, even immigration and crime, as some of the issues that donald trump's campaign have have laid out as the priorities. to me, that would be an indicator that it's starting to be a good night for donald trump. yeah, i mean, that's a smart way of looking at it because of course, in every demographic group, which was what we were kind college—educated women who actually end up voting republican, or you're going to get non—college educated white... i love the way we're slicing and dicing americans up like this, you're going to get non—college educated men. slice off your left arm and replace it with, you know, you live. here and you have a college education, you'll do this thing. and of course, some people won't. they'll go the other way.

and you can you can draw a lot from that because we, we look at past history to see that, yes, a majority of college educated women do tend to vote democrat at the moment. so there's some legitimacy to that. but i think you're right about that point, about the exit polls and particularly on something like abortion, because abortion, we've seen what's been so fascinating. you know, if we'd been having this conversation, my god, i remember having this conversation, you know, back in 2008 or back in 2004, even, and somebody had said that abortion was their primary issue. you would know that they were going to vote republican. and look how much we've how it flipped. and democrats and the harris campaign have always said this is going to be a big motivator. and they they have said even in the last few days, we're seeing in the suburbs of the kind of almost mythical suburbs of philadelphia, which is like the new florida we're seeing in the suburbs of philadelphia. large numbers of women turn out all higher numbers of women voting early.

the thing with abortion as an issue as well is it can go in both directions. if someone�*s leaving the polling centre and says, oh, abortion was my number one reason, does that mean because they want to keep donald trump out and secure abortion rights and reproductive rights, or they want to get donald trump in? are they and have a harder. voter, more. stern position on abortion? the assumption would be in this election that if you've put down abortion as your number one issue, it's more likely to be because you want to find some way to get those abortion rights back again. what are the other areas you guys are looking at? because for me, i'm also really curious to see turnout in university towns, places like madison, wisconsin, because we've talked about the fact that there are a number of young voters who are so frustrated with gaza policy for example, or with affordability for that matter. don't feel like they can buy a home at any point in their near future have even said, of course, that they would vote for donald trump on on gaza policy to send a message to the biden—harris administration, to the vice president here. and i'm curious to see if on the on the day we see a big turnout among those youth voters, because that could be a real wild card in some of these battleground

states where you have a huge youth population. we're talking about michigan in that matter — ann arbour, michigan. yeah, yeah, yeah. i think those young voters are one of the kind of unknown quantities in this election. i think those young voters are one of the kind of unknown quantities in this election. they're very, very hard for pollsters to capture them because they're not generally in the places. i mean, they don't have landline phones. are they going to spend ten minutes if they get a call on their cell phone answering questions from a polling company? so they're quite hard to capture, and they're motivated by a whole pile of things. and we've seen a lot of them in those so—called blue wall states michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania saying they may vote forjill stein, and we've seen a lot of them in those so—called blue wall states michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania saying they may vote forjill stein, saying they may vote forjill stein, the thejill stein, the thejill stein, the green party candidate. the green party candidate. and, you know, and so there's and, you know, and so there's a risk, i think, which we haven't a risk, i think, which we haven't talked about much, actually, talked about much, actually, is the impact she could potentially is the impact she could potentially have in think about 20 have in think about 20 and wisconsin in particular. and wisconsin in particular. yeah. yeah. and i mean, in 2016 and i mean, in 2016 she was the she she had more votes she was the she she had more votes than the difference between than the difference between hillary clinton and donald trump. hillary clinton and donald trump. so, had she not been running, so, had she not been running, who knows what would have happened? who knows what would have happened?

so, that to get on that so, that to get on that young voters point. young voters point. it's a super smart point. it's a super smart point. what what will we learn on election what what will we learn on election night if we see high turnout? night if we see high turnout? and in michigan, young voters turned and in michigan, young voters turned out more than in any other state. out more than in any other state. and 75% of michigan students and 75% of michigan students who were registered to vote. who were registered to vote. i've clearly been reading my i've clearly been reading my briefing book, actually bothered briefing book, actually bothered to go out to the polls, to go out to the polls, which is a very high which is a very high numberfor students. huge number of students having numberfor students. huge number of students having university students of my own. university students of my own. i realised what a big lift i realised what a big lift that is for university students, that is for university students, but i don't know what. but i don't know what. that's an interesting point. that's an interesting point. how much will we be how much will we be able to read into it? able to read into it? then let's say we do see big turnout then let's say we do see big turnout in ann arbour, michigan. in ann arbour, michigan. my guess is madison, wisconsin. my guess is madison, wisconsin. and i could be completely and i could be completely wrong on this. my guess is, is that among those wrong on this. my guess is, is that among those young so young voters tend democrat. young so young voters tend democrat. and if we see big turnout and if we see big turnout in those areas, my guess in those areas, my guess is that we are going to see is that we are going to see a higher democrat vote. a higher democrat vote. that is my guess. that is my guess.

saying that it's a heavier lift for the trump campaign to get these people out to vote, because young men, as you said, are not do not vote in as high numbers as young women do. and certainly, if donald trump and his campaign are relying on those young men to turn out in big numbers, they've spent a lot of time and money and investment in going on some of these podcasts onjoe rogan, all these, this, this outreach to young men. does that then translate to them actually going to the polls? or maybe they did vote early. i mean, that is a possibility as well. but on election day, actually going to the polls. well, that's. the big gamble for the trump campaign, because if you look at the polls, support for donald trump is almost where it was at a year ago when we were so far from the election. it hasn't really changed through the changing of the top of the ticket. 0n the democratic side, he's sat in there between 46 and a8, 49% support this whole time, which is roughly what he got in 2020 as well. so the big question for the trump campaign is who what new voters do they have? what have they built on in that time. and that's why i think they've they've been targeting

those young men because they weren't eligible to vote the last time around. or maybe they weren't eligible to vote vote even one year ago. and i think they've been putting a big push on georgia. and we'll be looking, i think, around the suburbs of atlanta as well. um, for young men there in arizona, we've seen them court the latino vote. i was there a few weeks ago. i met a whole pile of young men. that sounds a bit suspicious, but i met a whole pile of young men in in an early morning diner who had just come off shift somewhere, and they so many said. in a nightclub it would have been a lot more. i don't go to nightclubs any more, unfortunately. i have two small children! that's not a runner these days, unfortunately, but they were all really impressed by donald trump and many of them came from democratic households. you know, that's kind of what they would have grown up with their parents and so on. it was their first time to vote for many of them, and theyjust really liked this kind of strongman image that he's put across. and, you know, some of the more controversial things that he says, they were able to just wash over that and kind of dismiss it as, oh, off the cuff remarks. oh, off—the—cuff remarks, and we all say things sometimes that come out the wrong way and whatever.

and so i think arizona is going to be really one to watch as well. and, you know, we always talk about maricopa county and all of that. but i think right across that state and there's a big student population there as well. talking about the young people, you know, there's some i think there's something like 700,000 students in that state. the difference between the two, between biden and trump in 2020 was just over 11,000 votes. so, you know, there's potentially a huge number of people there that can tip the scales in either direction. i think it's also going to be interesting to watch the climate on election day. i mean, i don't mean the geographic climate. i mean the weather. it's always interesting to watch the weather, but it's going to be interesting to watch, you know, whether people in polling stations feel safe, whether how well protected they are, whether we have any more incidents of, you know, the kinds of things ballot burning, that sort of stuff. um, whether they the trump campaign in the past has said that they are going to send poll watchers, is what they call them, people to go and stand outside polling stations, which is sometimes been signed as intimidation of certain demographic groups. are we going to see that kind of thing, or is that actually

going to all pass off pretty smoothly? i know people are prepared for that because of 2022 and 2020, so they're much more focussed on that. they are, but look, just ahead of the the election, we have seen donald trump pointing to what he said is cheating in pennsylvania. and i mean, if you have that kind of distrust of the electoral system ahead of time, i mean, imagine what we might see in pennsylvania the day of. of course, pennsylvania, we know, took longer to count in 2020, and we're all going to be sitting on our seats edge here in the studio waiting for a result from pennsylvania, which we're not going to get on election night with all the mail in ballots and, and the process that it takes to count votes there. but the fact that there's republicans and donald trump pointing to pennsylvania ahead of time doesn't bode well necessarily for what might happen after the election. i mean, we don't know if we're going to see a contested result, but it certainly could be. why do you think he's pointing to cheating now? what's your what's your read on that? i think he's been doing this for a couple of months. if you look at the speeches that he's made, you know, he's talked...

are these voters in bucks county who were turned away, apparently, according to the trump campaign, who were turned away from voting. they have specific. specific issues, specific issues, and specific legal issues around some of the vote because some of the people in the harris campaign are saying to me, this is him preparing to lose pennsylvania, and that if you pull out now that there's cheating, you make the prospect of a suit somehow. it's more official if you put it out now already. but that's what i was going to say about the what we've heard from him for months about the potential for it being stolen as well. it's the same kind of theme, and we saw it in 2020 where you put these bits of rumours out, and then if it doesn't go the way you want to, you can say, well, i told you it was going to be stolen or people were cheating or it wasn't a fair fight. we should say, though, the democratic party in pennsylvania has launched a lawsuitjust in the last 2a hours. all the others we've seen have come from the republican party, and that's about the county of erie. and that's about the county of erie, mail—in ballots not being requested, not having been delivered, and a few other things that they're saying are irregularities

there that they want checked. and erie, of course, is a bellwether city and a bellwether state. and as goes erie generally goes pennsylvania and generally goes to presidency. so, again, i was there several months ago speaking to one of the local on the ground republican organisers, and they were working really hard at that time to up their mail in ballot system because they said particularly in 2022, they had missed out to the democrats. they felt, because the democrats were better at organising people to get their ballots in early, post them in early, and they didn't want that to happen again. so although we've often heard from donald trump, don't post your vote. go in person. his party and the ground operation for months have been doing just the opposite to that. and of course, we've heard him say in recent days, do vote early, get out and vote now. yeah, but it is a little bit still of a mixed message, because you then got elon musk saying just a week ago that mail in votes are subject to fraud or ripe for being subject to fraud. so they haven't quite got the message as clear on this. it does look, from the numbers of early voting that you've got almost as many republicans doing early votes as you have democrats this time around, to the extent that you can tell because different states have different rules around whether people are registered.

these are people registered, doesn't mean they vote that way. it doesn't mean that they've voted that way. michigan, pennsylvania do we think that the three blue wall states — pennsylvania and wisconsin — traditionally, they all vote the same way. i think there's only been one instance, 1988, in modern history, where they didn't. and one of them, which i can't remember off the top of my head went for michael dukakis and the other two didn't. i think it was. i think it was michigan. but i have absolutely no doubt that some eagle eyed viewer will fact check me on that one. anyway, they generally tend to vote together. do we think that they are going to vote if we see it's going to be michigan michigan again? that would be i agree. it'll be michigan again. yes, although the trump campaign are saying they're going to win six of the seven battlegrounds except for wisconsin. so, that would be a split between wisconsin going democrat

and michigan and pennsylvania going to donald trump. they're projecting a lot of confidence in the taking... i mean, taking six of the seven battlegrounds is projecting confidence in and of itself. but it's interesting that they're... but i think, i think you could see a split this time around. i think it's possible. very likely. and i agree with you that if we are going to see a split, i will be watching michigan because of the arab—american vote that we've spoken about a lot and something that we haven't spoken about as much, which is the issue of electric vehicles. and the trump campaign has put a lot of money into running ads in michigan, saying that if kamala harris is elected, then everyone in america will have to drive an electric car. and at the moment those electric cars come from china and trying to suppress the autoworker, vote for her or get the autoworker vote for him. and i think it's a kind of sleeper issue in michigan, but it is an interesting one. they're trying to rally on that. the democratic party in michigan by saying, 0k, electric vehicles, but electric vehicles still have to be built. someone still has to build them. so we still need the manufacturing plant. but they're a little bit on defence

on it because they're. crosstalk what donald trump had already put out there. they absolutely are. but i think it's really interesting when you look at how much attention both campaigns are giving to michigan, that the democratic campaign are not going near dearborn and hamtramck. they've been really trying to maximise the votes elsewhere. and of course, dearborn. hamtramck. those kind of edges of detroit are where the big arab, american, muslim american communities are, and it kind of feels like they've almost given up that they feel they can't win those people back. you and she's been very in tune with

the arab american community there. understanding that the criticism of the biden—harris administration on their israel—gaza policy is one that would make it very difficult for her to win that senate race, and she's distanced herself a bit from that policy and questioning israel's operation in gaza. now, even in lebanon as well, because we know there's a big lebanese american population in michigan. and we're hearing just today, just before we came into studio, the tony blinken had a press conference there and really changing the narrative again on how unhappy they are with israel on, you know, this latest bill that passed through the israeli parliament banning the aid agency from operating inside israel. it will have absolutely zero impact on arab american voters. i agree with you. but it's it's, you know, and not to say that the political arm of the democratic party is controlling us foreign policy. i'm sure that tony blinken is well aware of that act. and all that. but it's just interesting

that the language has really sharpened up now with just a couple of days to go. and they're saying things that we haven't heard them say over the last whole year that this humanitarian crisis has been so dire. so the other kind of sleeper thing that i'll be watching on election night is new york, which is an odd thing to be watching on election night. but i think because of the house races that helped with the house races in california hand the house to the republicans in 2022. and you're always looking kind of for tells, right? early on in the night. and because it's new york and so polls close earlier and it's on the east coast, you start to get feedback earlier. and these are smaller races. so we may get results pretty quickly from those races. if those republicans in new york, in long island, the hudson valley, right up to syracuse, across the board, do, well, you might be able to say, actually, that's i mean, they're local. they're much more local races. but again, if you were the trump campaign, you wouldn't be unhappy with that. but if they don't do badly, aren't they. like and they didn't turn up

at madison square garden and they're running from him. but even so, it would help the republicans if, let's say, all of the and the counter would be if they all lost on election night. maybe that's the more interesting thing. if all of those five republicans who managed to do so well in 2020, in seats that had gone traditionally democrat, let's say they all lose. i think that would be something that the harris campaign would be happy about, right? i mean, you'd start to think, oh, that's an interesting narrative to watch, at least on election night. and when we're talking about what to watch on election night. of course, we're talking largely about who's going to be the next president. but it's really important as well, isn't it? i mean, we've been discussing this over the last few weeks to look at what's happening in the senate and the house, because whoever gets into the oval office needs the senate and the house, if they're to have any chance of getting through any of these promises that they're making on the campaign trail. and i think, you know, you're talking about what's a good night for kamala harris apart from a win, obviously, either of them or what's a good night for donald trump? a win for him too.

but either of them are going to want to see, do i have my guys and gals behind me? can i actually do any of this? can i get any of this through? there's an understanding of that in the democrat party after 2022. i mean, they had quote unquote slept on those races in new york and california, and that's why you've seen huge amounts of money invested in these races now. i mean, they are very clear about the fact that they need to have a successful night in a democrat state of new york and a democrat state of california. it wouldn't tell us much about the national race? you know, my sense and i come from rochester, new york, and it's upstate new york is my my home original home. these, you know, local politics and district politics are really quite different. think about the fact that mike lawler was campaigning on the fact that he stood on stage with president biden at an event that he works across the aisle. it just feels like such a different flavour. but that being said, i mean, you never know. it could give us an indication of how people are feeling about the economy, for example, or how people are feeling the issue of housing.

if there is enthusiasm for her and large numbers of democratic voters are turning out, they may welljust be voting democrat right down the ticket, right? so, they're voting for kamala harris, they're voting for the others. and the same would go if they're voting democrat in those house races. they're probably voting for kamala harris, too, in big numbers. that mayjust give us a sense of enthusiasm. and one of the things that democrats have been worried about, democratic strategists that i've spoken to have been worried about all through the race, up to including just today. i was on the phone with one just before we came into the studio, is that there is a sort of lack of enthusiasm for her. there is enthusiasm around the issues. there's an enthusiasm around the issue of abortion. there's an enthusiasm for stopping donald trump. there's they they really want him not to win. t? hey really want him not to win. but that doesn't quite translate into a massive amount of active enthusiasm for her. and it is something that democrats are a little worried about. the campaign won't say it out loud, but strategists around the campaign do talk about it. and are those enthusiastic people, people who are going to vote democratic anyway?

how many extra people are they bringing on board? you know, and that's to our point at the start of this is about turnout. it's about getting the numbers out. it's about we'll be sitting here on election night going, oh, only 15% of the votes are in because there are so many votes to count. and as we know, the rules are different in each state as to who can start counting that huge pot of postal votes ahead of time. and when we're going to see these, these little things trickle in that give us these little tells. another thing that i'll be watching is just turnout. you know, donald trump drove up turnout in 2016. he drove up turnout in 2018. in the midterms, he drove up turnout in 2020. he drove up turnout in 2022. does donald trump love him or hate him on either side? yeah, definitely. well, there will be plenty to watch and i hope everyone tunes in. we're going to be literally chained to these seats... not literally, but it will feel a bit like that. we'll be there all night in the studio bringing people all the action. so something to look forward to.

yeah. see you guys. we will get through it. yeah, we will.

hello there. hello there. apart from the fireworks, apart from the fireworks, it was a quiet end to october and it's been a quiet it was a quiet end to october start to november. and essentially we've got more and essentially we've got more of the same this weekend. of the same this weekend. more cloudy skies and more cloudy skies and more mild air as well. now there was some more mild air as well. sunshine to the east of the pennines on friday. of the pennines on friday. now there was some now there was some sunshine to the east temperatures not rising very much, sunshine to the east of the pennines on friday. of the pennines on friday. north yorkshire the place north yorkshire the place to be with about six to be with about six hours of sunshine. hours of sunshine. but the breaks in the cloud that but the breaks in the cloud that we've had here have been filling we've had here have been filling in and underneath that area of high in and underneath that area of high pressure we do have cloudy skies pressure we do have cloudy skies that weather front steering a little that weather front steering a little rain up towards shetland. rain up towards shetland. now with that blanket of cloud now with that blanket of cloud around these are the temperatures around these are the temperatures first thing on saturday and a mild first thing on saturday and a mild ten degrees typically. ten degrees typically. and the temperatures will have and the temperatures will have lifted in the north east lifted in the north east of scotland by the morning. of scotland by the morning. but it's going to be quite a grey but it's going to be quite a grey and gloomy start, some mist and some and gloomy start, some mist and some hill fog that may tend to lift any hill fog that may tend to lift any drizzle in scotland, and some drizzle in scotland, and some parts of england should parts of england should tend to ease away. tend to ease away. a lot of places will be dry, a lot of places will be dry, but stay cloudy could be a bit but stay cloudy could be a bit of sunshine in north east of sunshine in north east scotland, perhaps later scotland, perhaps later in the far south east of england. in the far south east of england. it is going to be a mild day again, it is going to be a mild day again,

temperatures not rising very much, but up to 13, 1a, maybe 15 degrees and a bit milder than it was on friday in northern scotland. those weather fronts are being kept at bay, so the rain is being kept at bay even though the high pressure centre is drifting away and it's allowing a gentle southeasterly breeze to come in for the second half of the weekend, that could introduce some slightly drier air. so if the cloud does break in scotland and eastern parts of england, it'll be a chilly start to sunday. many places, though on sunday will again be cloudy. there could still be some mist and fog around in the morning, but we may see a bit more sunshine in scotland, perhaps developing in northern england, north wales even maybe into the midlands towards east anglia as well eventually. but it is going to be a mild day wherever you are. temperatures typically 13 or 1a degrees. now as we head into the beginning of next week and mist and fog is going to be more widespread across england and wales on monday morning, and tuesday morning could extend its way into scotland as well. and that mist and fog is going to be very slow to lift. many places will still be cloudy and under the mist and fog it is going to feel quite chilly as well. but later on in the week we'll have less of that stronger

southerly breeze, probably lifting the temperatures a bit, and these areas of low pressure will keep the rain at bay. so again, it's still looking dry.

the focus on friday is about swing states in the midwest. kamala harris and donald trump are both visiting wisconsin. in 2020, joe biden took the state by a narrow margin. this time, the polls are tight again. in the last hour, the vice president has appeared at a rally at appleton — the second of three stops in the state today. and at the top of my list is bringing down the cost of living for you. that will be my focus every single day as president. including, iwill give a middle tax tax cut to over hundred million americans. we will and act the first ever federal ban on corporate price gouging on groceries. and fight

to make