oi’ or robert jenrick, minister, or robertjenrick, former immigration minister? both candidates have been put forward of the six candidates put themselves forward at the beginning of this race all the way backin back injuly. back in july. i'm joined back injuly. i'mjoined now back injuly. i'm joined now by our political editor chris mason who is here with me. chris, kemi badenoch is the favourite in terms of the polls but in the world of politics, you never know?— but in the world of politics, you never know? but in the world of politics, ou never know? i, ~ ,, you never know? you never know, not least because _ you never know? you never know, not least because this _ you never know? you never know, not least because this is _ you never know? you never know, not least because this is a - not least because this is a race whose electorate is conservative party members, 100,000 odd members are scattered hither and thither around the uk. how on earth do you accurately poll a collection of people are like that? short answer, collection of people are like that? shortanswer, it collection of people are like that? short answer, it is not easy. yeah, kemi badenoch seems the favourite. ijust easy. yeah, kemi badenoch seems the favourite. i just spoke to one of her supporters and they are feeling powerless because there is the gap between polls closing, the last chance conservative party members had to vote on thursday evening, and the result in about ten minutes' time and there is nothing they have been able to do in that week, though. the two candidates are going to be told around about now in

private in this building in central london, they are then going to have to put on the ultimate poker face as they walk into the room behind us in public into a room full of people who do not know the result in order to hear its public announcement. this matters, it matters in terms of the extent to which the conservatives can be competitive again come the next general election but it matters for a bigger reason than that day to day which is that good government requires good opposition and coherent opposition and coherent opposition and coherent opposition and the big challenge for whoever it is, kemi badenoch or robert jenrick, is to assemble a coherent opposition that can take on the government. take on the governmentjust as it take on the government. take on the government just as it set out its big policy perspectives with the budget of the other day. with the budget of the other da . , . ~' , day. chris, thank you very much, day. chris, thank you very much. i — day. chris, thank you very much, iwill_ day. chris, thank you very much, i will let _ day. chris, thank you very much, i will let you - day. chris, thank you very much, i will let you go - day. chris, thank you very | much, i will let you go into that room where the announcement is set to be made in about ten minutes' time. let's now take a look at how we have arrived at this point with our political correspondent tom symons.

at the age of 16, i came to britain from nigeria. every political journey starts with an origin story. i saw how poverty of ambition left many from disadvantaged backgrounds on the scrap heap. ijoined this party aged 16, in 1997, in wolverhampton. there were not many 16—year—old conservatives in wolverhampton in 1997. there were not many conservatives in wolverhampton in 1997. i paid my way through college, working in mcdonald's, flipping burgers, cleaning loos, and i learned first—hand that earning your own money, rather than relying on others, gives you notjust more freedom, but more dignity. i always feel that margaret thatcher was a great, you know, a great success for this country. one of his children has thatcherfor a middle name apparently. both of the leadership candidates tend to the right of the party, but their tactics differ. kemi badenoch seems keen on big emotional ideas. no to gender neutral toilets.

prison for leaky civil servants — a joke, she said. british values over what she called less valid cultures. which cultures - in your view, are less valid than others? 0h, lots. cultures that believe in child marriage, for instance, or that women don't have equal rights. i actually think its extraordinary that people think that's an unusual or controversial thing to say. what is the point of difference between us? i think it's quite clear that i have set out a really strong diagnosis of what's gone wrong. i have set out very clear policies which are marking a big change for the party. and there's one he never stops talking about. one which i believe is existential to our party and critical to the future of our country, is our membership of the european convention on human rights. the court is not even a court any more. it is making laws now. our special forces are killing rather than capturing terrorists because our lawyers tell us that if they're caught, the european court

will set them free. do you know this has happened or- this is happening now? there are instances where the echr is forcing or leading the decision makers to take lethal action, for example, by calling it... let me just finish the point. it's an important one. but this is what you | said in your video... he took some heat for that, but he's sticking with the policy idea. who do you think you're speaking to? kemi badenoch has ruffled feathers, too, including here the speaker's. a breach of parliamentary protocol. mr speaker, i apologise. but whichever of these two becomes a leader, they're going to have to fight to rebuild their party's politics from scratch. she once said, "good politics is messy." he saw it as confronting hard truths. for one of them, the job starts today. tom symonds, bbc news.

so, it is really a feeling of anticipation and excitement here in central london as tory members who voted over the past 15 or so days and before then, tory mps who voted, to whittle down those six to two, await the result of that leadership race. i'mjoined here the result of that leadership race. i'm joined here by two people who know a thing or two about politics, former political analyst and henry hill, good to talk to both of you. the room behind us is full at the moment with thinking looking at the polls that kemi badenoch is the person to be announced but as i mentioned to chris earlier, you never know? you don't know and they could be an upset or surprised because nobody has really been able to do that deep analysis of what our associations and members thinking, polling can only give you a snapshot in

time as to what is going on. and we have had ballots a couple of weeks ago, whether anything has changed or anyone have voted late, all of that is to calibrate but it does look like kemi badenoch is the favourite at this moment in time. ~ . , , . time. what is the difference between the _ time. what is the difference between the two _ time. what is the difference l between the two candidates? they were both initially on the right— they were both initially on the right of— they were both initially on the right of the contest compared to james— right of the contest compared to james cleverly and tom tugendhat, the more possible candidates for the one nation wing — candidates for the one nation wing the _ candidates for the one nation wing. the more dividing line is robert — wing. the more dividing line is robertjenrick has been more explicit — robertjenrick has been more explicit about what he wants to do. explicit about what he wants to tie he — explicit about what he wants to do. he has made some very specific— do. he has made some very specific policy proposals on things— specific policy proposals on things like immigration which people — things like immigration which people can agree or disagree with— people can agree or disagree with whereas kemi has kept it much — with whereas kemi has kept it much more bigger picture. she said the — much more bigger picture. she said the issue was that the party— said the issue was that the party talked right but governed left, party talked right but governed teft, not — party talked right but governed left, not said what that meant in practice or what governing right— in practice or what governing right would look like. is in practice or what governing right would look like.- right would look like. is that because she _ right would look like. is that because she doesn't - right would look like. is that because she doesn't know. right would look like. is that i because she doesn't know what she wants to do or she is hedging her bets?- she wants to do or she is hedging her bets? this is the interesting — hedging her bets? this is the interesting question, - hedging her bets? this is the interesting question, she - hedging her bets? this is thej interesting question, she has promised a grand review on all areas — promised a grand review on all areas of— promised a grand review on all areas of policy after she

becomes leader, something has to happen, there has to be a reckoning _ to happen, there has to be a reckoning for the party with why— reckoning for the party with why the _ reckoning for the party with why the last election was such a catastrophic defeat. the interesting thing for her would be she — interesting thing for her would be she has a broad range of support_ be she has a broad range of support but a lot of those supporters will want different things— supporters will want different things and if she does become a leader. — things and if she does become a leader, how is she going to maintain _ leader, how is she going to maintain that unity that she prices — maintain that unity that she prices are so highly when she has to— prices are so highly when she has to stop making divisive decisions.— decisions. that is an interesting - decisions. that is an | interesting question, decisions. that is an - interesting question, what is the answer, salma? that is what all leaders have to do since time immemorial. tomorrow a phrase, the conservative party is a broad church and keeping all those factions together has been what conservative party leaders, and even labour prime ministers need to do. there is a way that you can bring that together a way that you can bring that to . ethe ., , together and they will inevitably _ together and they will inevitably be - together and they will inevitably be fights. i together and they will - inevitably be fights. there will never be a perfect answer or perfect leader but ultimately it is about how you deal with the challenges presented in front of you with a piece of vision, i agree, but all of that can be maintained

and brought front in the round when we have a victor. history tells us that — when we have a victor. history tells us that the _ when we have a victor. history tells us that the new - when we have a victor. history tells us that the new leader i when we have a victor. history tells us that the new leader of| tells us that the new leader of an opposition after a heavy electoral defeat probably, according to historical contexts, might then become prime minister. when the labour party lost in 2010, there were 14 party lost in 2010, there were 1a years before they came back to power so what do think that tells us about how this new leader is to lead the party? theirjob number one is to find reasons— theirjob number one is to find reasons for— theirjob number one is to find reasons for the public and the price — reasons for the public and the price to — reasons for the public and the price to pay attention to the conservative party because with a labour— conservative party because with a labour having such a big majority, _ a labour having such a big majority, even if things do keep— majority, even if things do keep going badly and their poll ratings — keep going badly and their poll ratings keep sliding, there are more — ratings keep sliding, there are more than enough labour backbenchers for them to have a very engaging multisided civil war that — very engaging multisided civil war that doesn't involve the tories _ war that doesn't involve the tories. the leader needs to find — tories. the leader needs to find themselves into the conversation will stop the difference between 97 and 2010, there _ difference between 97 and 2010, there is— difference between 97 and 2010, there is more potential for the tories — there is more potential for the tories to— there is more potential for the tories to come back because in terms — tories to come back because in terms of— tories to come back because in terms of seat majority is, this is a _ terms of seat majority is, this is a very. _ terms of seat majority is, this is a very, very marginal parliament, 1% swing would have a 50 tory— parliament, 1% swing would have a 50 tory mps, a 2% swing would

deiiver— a 50 tory mps, a 2% swing would deliver 100 — a 50 tory mps, a 2% swing would deliver 100 foot up there's plenty— deliver 100 foot up there's plenty of scope for the conservatives to be much more competitive in 2029 than in 2001— competitive in 2029 than in 2001 put on the flip side, they are going _ 2001 put on the flip side, they are going to have to do with reform _ are going to have to do with reform for oxygen, the liberal democrats, it is a much different political landscape. at the — different political landscape. at the political landscape to the right is much more fractured and the key many people are saying now is for them to bring the right together again? them to bring the right togetheragain? it them to bring the right together again?- them to bring the right together again? it is not 'ust about the i together again? it is not 'ust about the conservative h together again? it is not just| about the conservative party, all political parties are fractured, you have the progressive left but also has made a lot of gains in parliament as well. this is something that is a trend occurring for everyone. yes, you have to unite the right, as we say, and it is something borisjohnson did very successfully in 2019. but you also have to keep what is the traditional core they have ceded to the lib dems. it is not an either or and any new leader who sees it as such is inevitably going to fail. irate inevitably going to fail. we have heard _ inevitably going to fail. we have heard from james cleverly who was already said i'm not going to serve in the shadow cabinet of either of the party

leaders. what does that tell us about the bad blood within the conservative party that still seems to be bubbling over, henry? it seems to be bubbling over, hen ? , ., ., , ., seems to be bubbling over, hen ? ,., ., ., henry? it is going to be a real challenge _ henry? it is going to be a real challenge for— henry? it is going to be a real challenge for the _ henry? it is going to be a real challenge for the next - challenge for the next conservative leader, just because there is only 121 conservative mps and there is about — conservative mps and there is about that many shadow positions to fill so actually if positions to fill so actually it you _ positions to fill so actually if you have senior people like jeremy— if you have senior people like jeremy hunt not serving in the shadow— jeremy hunt not serving in the shadow cabinet, you will end up with some — shadow cabinet, you will end up with some tory mps with two or three _ with some tory mps with two or three shadow portfolios just to keep— three shadow portfolios just to keep up— three shadow portfolios just to keep up the numbers. i can't think— keep up the numbers. i can't think of— keep up the numbers. i can't think ofa— keep up the numbers. i can't think of a historical period where _ think of a historical period where the conservatives had this view— where the conservatives had this view mps... where the conservatives had this view mps. . ._ where the conservatives had this view mps. .. they did have to do multiple _ this view mps. .. they did have to do multiple jobs _ this view mps. .. they did have to do multiple jobs in - this view mps. .. they did have to do multiple jobs in 2001. i. to do multiplejobs in 2001. i am old enough to remember that. are multitasking, right? mar; am old enough to remember that. are multitasking, right?— are multitasking, right? may be those peeple — are multitasking, right? may be those people are _ are multitasking, right? may be those people are thinking - are multitasking, right? may be those people are thinking based on what — those people are thinking based on what you just said, how you leaders — on what you just said, how you leaders do _ on what you just said, how you leaders do in a parliament of this difficult, take a couple of years— this difficult, take a couple of years on the backbenches and then— of years on the backbenches and then if— of years on the backbenches and then if the — of years on the backbenches and then if the new leader becomes a copper— then if the new leader becomes a copper and as does the shadow cabinet. — a copper and as does the shadow cabinet, you have some clean skins — cabinet, you have some clean skins that— cabinet, you have some clean skins that can come in later. very— skins that can come in later. very cynical positioning, but it is— very cynical positioning, but it is politics.—