hello — i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. if we get everybody out to vote, there's not. a thing they can do. here's my only purpose l in even being here today. get out and vote. are we ready to do this? we are ready to get out the vote? we are ready to win? all right. we know from all the polls that this is_ we know from all the polls that this is a — we know from all the polls that this is a really deeply divided nation, — this is a really deeply divided nation, but i think there is one — nation, but i think there is one thing _ nation, but i think there is one thing that most voters are agreed — one thing that most voters are agreed on _ one thing that most voters are agreed on and that is that they have _ agreed on and that is that they have been exhausted by this campaign. joining me tonight are donald trump's former chief of staff and jess o'connell, and

the emmy—winning broadcaster and journalist caroline tehrani. the last pitch — kamala harris and donald trump are on the final campaign sprint, before tuesday's presidential election. the vice president will spend her entire day in pennsylvania, the biggest of the battleground states, she is making stops in five different cities. donald trump also in pennsylvania, but for the third day in a row, the former president started north carolina where final polls had kamala harris in the lead, within the margin of error. our panelists this first hour tonight, donald trump's former chief of staff mick mulvaney, former ceo of the democratic national committee, jess o'connell. and the emmy winning broadcaster and journalist

caroline moderassi tehrani. good evening and welcome. we are almost done. tonight they head for the final rallies in pennsylvania. then, it is up to the voters. and what comes next is anyone's guess. what we do know is that this is one of the most consequential elections, for america but also for many others around the world, particularly those affected by wars in the middle east and in ukraine. the latest and last numbers from the new york times sienna polling. the stakes in this election are as high as it gets, and yet for all the millions of dollars that have been spent by the two campaigns, 600m in pennsylvania alone, the polls suggest it is as close as it gets. this is poll tracker of the battleground states, the seven that could be decisive in this election. the final new york times/siena poll, showed kamala harris with marginal leads in nevada, north carolina and wisconsin, trump just ahead in arizona. the two are virtually neck and neck in michigan, georgia and pennsylvania.

but it has been an ugly campaign, filled with insults, lies, two assassination attempts. at times it has been interrupted by the many court cases involving the former president. and perhaps it was fitting then, that the operative word of the final few days of this campaign — garbage. i don't know if you guys know this but there is literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. yeah, ithink the middle of the ocean right now. yeah, i think it's called puerto ricolaughter 0k, all right...- puerto ricolaughter 0k, all right... let me tell ou i ok, all right... let me tell you i don't— 0k, all right... let me tell you i don't know _ 0k, all right... let me tell you i don't know the - 0k, all right... let me tell| criticism of people based on who they v know '. - criticism of people based on who they v know the - criticism of people based on you i don't know the puerto rice“— you i don't know the puerto rican that i know, or a puerto who they v know the puerto| you i don't know the puerto riceh— you i don't know the puerto rican that i know, or a puerto rice“— rican that i know, or a puerto rican in— riceh— rican that i know, or a puerto rican irr— rican that i know, or a puerto rican in my— rican that i know, or a puerto rican in my home state of rican that i know, or a puerto rican in my— rican that i know, or a puerto rican in my home state of delaware, they are good, delaware, they are good, decent. _ delaware, they are good, decent, honourable people. the decent. _ delaware, they are good, decent, honourable people. the only garbage i see floating out only garbage i see floating out who they vote for. - there — only garbage i see floating out there are his supporters. | there — only garbage i see floating out there are his supporters. | there are his supporters. strongly there are his supporters. i there are his supporters. strongly there are his supporters. i strongly disagree with any strongly disagree with any criticism _ strongly disagree with any criticism of— strongly disagree with any criticism of people - criticism _ strongly disagree with any criticism of— strongly disagree with any criticism of people -

strongly disagree with any criticism of people based. strongly disagree with any i criticism of people based on who— strongly disagree with any criticism of people based. strongly disagree with any i criticism of people based on who— criticism of people based on who they— criticism of people based on who they vote _ criticism of people based on criticism of people based on who they— criticism of people based on who they vote _ criticism of people based on who they vote for. - criticism of people based on who they vote for.— criticism of people based on who they vote for. this is an honour of — who they vote for. this is an honour of common - who they vote for. this is an honour of common kamala i who they vote for. this is an i honour of common kamala and who they vote for. this is an - honour of common kamala and joe biden. i don't blame him for sticking with his daughter, but his daughter is a very dumb individual, very dumb. she's a radical war hawk. let's put her in the rightful standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. let's see how she feels about it when the guns are trained on herface. about it when the guns are trained on her face. donald trump has _ trained on her face. donald trump has spent _ trained on her face. donald trump has spent a - trained on her face. donald trump has spent a decade | trained on her face. donald i trump has spent a decade of trying — trump has spent a decade of trying to— trump has spent a decade of trying to keep the american people _ trying to keep the american people divided and afraid of each — people divided and afraid of each other. that is who he is, but _ each other. that is who he is, but america, i am here tonight to say— but america, i am here tonight to say that _ but america, i am here tonight to say that is not who we are. the _ to say that is not who we are. the mike. _ to say that is not who we are. the mike. i— to say that is not who we are. the mike, ithink to say that is not who we are. the mike, i think the to say that is not who we are. the mike, ithink the mic

to say that is not who we are. thr you (e, i think the mic to say that is not who we are. thr you want�*hink the mic to say that is not who we are. thr you want to ik the mic to say that is not who we are. thr you want to see re mic to say that is not who we are. thr you want to see me... tomorrow night i will be at the big screen taking you through the results as they come in. so here s a reminder of how this is going to work. the winner of the popular vote on election night does not necessarily win the white house. to become the next president, one of these two candidates will need to win the electoral college. there are 538 electors divided across the 50 states. california, the biggest of them all, has 5a electors. a state like florida, the third biggest, has 30. it is a race to 270. now, what you need to know is that there are 43 states that we can probably allocate ahead of time. those in red are republican. those in blue, democratic. which leaves us with seven battleground states. kamala harris has 21 different paths to the white house through these seven states but the simplest route is probably through areas where traditionally they have

been strong, the midwest, wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania. so long as they win the second congressional district in nebraska, omaha, that will get her to 270. what about donald trump? well, certainly he needs to do better in the south. he would need to hold on to north carolina. he would need to win georgia and arizona. even if he became the first republican presidential candidate to win nevada since 2004, that would leave him short. he still needs one of the midwest states. but he will take confidence from 2016. the blue wall crumbled and he won all three of those midwest states. in 2020, they reverted back to blue. joe biden won each of these states but by the slenderest of margins. he won wisconsin by 20,000 votes, michigan by 155,000, and pennsylvania by 81,000. if it is as tight as that on tuesday night, i must warn you, we will be waiting

for a result. we will get our panel's view on that shortly. but 1st, let's speak to helena humphrey who is in north carolina. explained to us why north carolina is a battleground state and what they have to do tomorrow in order to take it? this is really important for donald trump. he needs to win north carolina. if he doesn't, he is potentially on a more shaky path towards heading towards the presidency, as with democrats believing this could be her best chance of flipping a battleground state blue. christian, you and i have discussed how slim the margins were in 2020. of course, president biden losing byjust around one percentage point, so very slim margins they are making this potentially a very swing a battleground state. talking about some of the factors here that make it really interesting, suburban women, when we think about

north carolina, remember here in the self, this is just one of two states where abortion is still permitted past six weeks. and what you see as many women coming in from neighbouring states seeking to obtain an abortion here in this state. what, harris will need to do is really draw into some 60% of white women voters who backed donald trump in 2022 remain in with the chance of flipping the state. then there are things like the covid migration when people were working from home, many young professionals, college—educated voters moving away from liberal cities due to the cost of living, moving to places like here, sunbelt states, well, that influences things. taking a look at the economy, it is a big issue in this election, if not the biggest issue. when you look at the data and the job creation here in north carolina, president biden has created far morejobs than donald president biden has created far more jobs than donald trump. president biden has created far morejobs than donald trump. in terms of the other things of mobilisation, what do they need to do to change this? at the

stage come as you know it's all about the ground game, getting your base out and then some. i was speaking to a chair of a county democratic party and he was telling me he believes that this is the best ground game he's seen in terms of door knocking, mobilising democratic voters imploring them to vote, of course, 2008 when barack 0bama managed to flip the state, but on the other side we've seen a lot of republican volunteers going up to the blue ridge mountains, for example that was hard hit by hurricane howling and bringing people down the mountain. it will be a case of people who were affected by that hurricane is well and getting them out to vote. 0ne well and getting them out to vote. one thing i will say to you, christian is that we were poised to go to a rally what was one of, harris�*s potentially last rallies, that was cancelled. make of that what you will choosing to remain in pennsylvania doesn't mean she's more confident about north carolina are potentially

more worried about pennsylvania.- more worried about penns lvania. ~ . , pennsylvania. nick mulvaney, let me speak— pennsylvania. nick mulvaney, let me speak with _ pennsylvania. nick mulvaney, let me speak with you. - pennsylvania. nick mulvaney, let me speak with you. you i pennsylvania. nick mulvaney, i let me speak with you. you know charlotte and know the state very well. third time in as many days that donald trump has beenin many days that donald trump has been in north carolina. is that a whiff of panic.— a whiff of panic. no, you alwa s a whiff of panic. no, you always look— a whiff of panic. no, you always look at _ a whiff of panic. no, you always look at where - a whiff of panic. no, you i always look at where folks a whiff of panic. no, you - always look at where folks go in the last days of the race to where they can make the biggest difference, just because you go to a state doesn't mean you are panicked any more than they are going to pennsylvania meaning they are panicked about pennsylvania. north carolina is going to be very close. i spent the last couple of days driving to the rural parts of the central part of the state and there were a lot more harris walls signs than i remember from the last couple of election cycles. —— walz. it's a true swing states, true purple state as a show there in your graphic. i don't believe georgia is. georgia is a republican state. they won by ten or 12 points the last time the republican governor ran. north carolina is a true toss—up state and i get the feeling that harris is doing better there than any

republican might think. how do ou mean republican might think. how do you mean that _ republican might think. how do you mean that it _ republican might think. how do you mean that it is _ republican might think. how do you mean that it is a _ republican might think. how do you mean that it is a true - you mean that it is a true toss—up state? because you would have to go back to 2008 to find a democrat that had won it in a presidential election and farfurther back it in a presidential election and far further back to find, back to the 1980s, to find another democrat who won it? that's easy because that is the top of the ticket. you are right when it comes to president, but north carolina has had a democratic governor now for the last eight years. they expect to elect a new democrat governor this time. democrat governor this time. democrat state—wide officers do well. yes, the republican party has done well at the top of the tickets, yes they control some of the senate seats, but the house race there are always very narrow with the competing and even to your point with republican �*s winning at the top of the ticket, they do tend top of the ticket, they do tend to win by the narrowest of margins, that's why i say it is a much more purple state than say, georgia, where the republican party does dominate usually on state—wide offices.

kamala harris finishes in philadelphia tonight. all of these cities in the midwest are going to be crucially important to kamala harris. conspicuous by his absence —— absence is the president. will we see him tonight? the president. will we see him toniaht? �* ., , tonight? i'm not sure where president — tonight? i'm not sure where president biden _ tonight? i'm not sure where president biden is _ tonight? i'm not sure where president biden is set - tonight? i'm not sure where president biden is set to - tonight? i'm not sure where| president biden is set to be. tonight? i'm not sure where i president biden is set to be. i think— president biden is set to be. i think he — president biden is set to be. i think he wasjust president biden is set to be. i think he was just there actually over the weekend i think— actually over the weekend i think i_ actually over the weekend i think i saw something about maybe — think i saw something about maybe him in scranton, but i think. — maybe him in scranton, but i think, harris is the one who is running — think, harris is the one who is running this race right now. kamala _ running this race right now. kamala harris. ithink running this race right now. kamala harris. i think she's spending _ kamala harris. i think she's spending a tonne of time in pennsylvania and crisscrossing a lot _ pennsylvania and crisscrossing a lot of— pennsylvania and crisscrossing a lot of the battleground states _ a lot of the battleground states and they are going to finish — states and they are going to finish strong there. i think some _ finish strong there. i think some of— finish strong there. i think some of the trends that we are seeing — some of the trends that we are seeing in — some of the trends that we are seeing in pennsylvania, first of all. — seeing in pennsylvania, first of all, the amount of enthusiasm out there, it's going _ enthusiasm out there, it's going to _ enthusiasm out there, it's going to be a very close race, but these _ going to be a very close race, but these doors are getting knocked over and over and over again — knocked over and over and over again. these voters are getting again. these voters are getting a chance — again. these voters are getting a chance to talk to people one—on—one, to talk about the issues — one—on—one, to talk about the issues that— one—on—one, to talk about the issues that matter most to them and know— issues that matter most to them and know that the ground game that has— and know that the ground game that has been going on in pennsylvania is very, very strong _ pennsylvania is very, very strong. these folks are activated and they are going to

talk about the issues that matter _ talk about the issues that matter most and kamala harris is prioritising pennsylvania. i'm is prioritising pennsylvania. i'm not— is prioritising pennsylvania. i'm not surprised. it's an important state in this race right— important state in this race right now. important state in this race right nova-— right now. kamala harris knocked _ right now. kamala harris knocked on _ right now. kamala harris knocked on 3 _ right now. kamala harris knocked on 3 million - right now. kamala harris l knocked on 3 million doors right now. kamala harris - knocked on 3 million doorsjust this past weekend. the thing that i don't understand is if you look at some of this polling, the polling on which way this is polling, the