the trump trade — us stock markets, the dollar and crypto currencies soar to new record highs after donald trumps win in the presidential election. what now for the fed? the us central bank is expected to cut interest rates today but how will donald trump's but how will donald trump's win affect future win affect future interest rate policy? interest rate policy? could the uk see another interest rate cut today? the bank of england meets the bank of england meets later as it weighs up later as it weighs up the impact of the uk the impact of the uk budget and us election. budget and us election. political crisis in germany — olaf scholz sacks his finance this is business today, minister, causing a collapse minister, causing a collapse in their coalition in their coalition government with elections government with elections expected in january. expected in january. and can you tell the difference and can you tell the difference between a deepfake or not? industry experts tell the bbc between a deepfake or not? about the latest deep fake detection tools. fake detection tools.

live from london, live from london, this is business today, i'm sally bundock. we start with a look at the stock markets and on wall street shares soared to fresh record highs and trump's victory unleashed a massive rally in the value of the us dollar. let's show you the numbers — so the main market — the s&p 500 closed up over 2.5% at a record high and huge gains were seen in areas such as small—cap stocks and banks that are poised to benefit from trump's expected lighter regulatory touch. the dollar hit its highest level in over four months against most major currencies. bitcoin hit record highs following trump's election promise to prioritise the volatile crypto currency. but us government bond yields hit their highest levels sincejuly as investors weighed

the implications of donald trump's election victory on debt markets as investors scramble to price in a new regime of trade tariffs and tax cuts. let's unpack this with russ mould — investment director at aj bell. good morning to you. wall street celebrating, champagne pimping, street celebrating, champagne popping, what are your thoughts? i popping, what are your thoughts?— popping, what are your thoughts? popping, what are your thou~hts? ~ , ., ., thoughts? i think first of all the markets _ thoughts? i think first of all the markets welcome - thoughts? i think first of all the markets welcome the i thoughts? i think first of all l the markets welcome the fact thoughts? i think first of all - the markets welcome the fact we got an uncontested result, clear decisive result, the process was not going to drag on. also the markets were probably fairly pleased, selfish things that they are, that kamala harris�*s higher taxes, unrealised gains would not be going, greedy, selfish things they can be. on the positive size markets are looking for higher growth through perhaps lower tax and tax cuts and deregulation is

favoured in the short term, sentiment towards the banks, cryptocurrency and the prospect of higher economic activity in america favouring those domestic companies, the smaller names you mentioned with the russell index up 6% yesterday. it is interesting to see the reaction for many companies. it is not clear what the future is holding at all for the us economy, for the global economy. there is so much uncertainty about what his radical policies could mean. tesla was one of the biggest gains yesterday with shares up 15% perhaps in respect of elon

gains yesterday with shares up 15% perha actualispect of elon gains yesterday with shares up 15% perha actual policies. elon gains yesterday with shares up 15% perha actual policies. he 1 they were actual policies. he didn't always impose the policies he threatened for example in france and mexico and extracted contentions from them in exchange. it remains to be seen whether these are tactics or policies and indeed we will find out exactly how helpful the house of representatives and the senate will be over time.— will be over time. terms explain _ will be over time. terms explain why _ will be over time. terms explain why the - will be over time. terms explain why the gilt - will be over time. terms - explain why the gilt markets are reacting the way they are and also very strong dollar, which is something i assume president—elect trump would not want. president-elect trump would not want. ., , ,, want. no, the rising us treasury _ want. no, the rising us treasury yields - want. no, the rising us treasury yields or - want. no, the rising us- treasury yields or government borrowing costs reflect the fact that trump's tax cuts are seenin fact that trump's tax cuts are seen in the short—term as increasing an already enormous us deficit so us has to sell more treasury to plug the gap because it is spending more thanit because it is spending more than it is owning and if supply of something goes up its price goes down, which for bond means that the yield goes up, you have to offer a high yield to attract potential deals. it is also worried a bit that may be trump's policies will be so

effective and growth it will be inflationary. people wishing to buy us assets but trump has historically talked about wanting a weaker dollar to boost us experts. he spent most of his last term breathing all over the us federal reserve demanding interest rate cuts so we will see if that reflects, effects thinking. he cannot sack mr powell exit with good cause so mr powell is in until 2026. ., ~ ,., cause so mr powell is in until 2026. ., ~ i. ., cause so mr powell is in until 2026. ., ~ ., 2026. thank you for your insiaht 2026. thank you for your insight as _ 2026. thank you for your insight as ever. - in the light of all this what will the us central bank do next following the election of donald trump? many of his promises are seen as inflationary — in particular his plans to impose tariffs on goods entering the us. well, the fed wraps up its latest meeting today and is widely expected to cut interest rates again with the cost of borrowing dropping by a quarter

of a percent to a target range of 4.5% 4.75%. but what will the fed do in the months ahead? here's our north america business correspondent, ritika gupta federal reserve officials are widely expected to lower their benchmark interest rate on thursday by a quarter percentage point. that's a move that would come on the heels of a half—point cut back in september. they projected one more quarter—point cut this year in december, and an additional full point of reductions in 2025, according to the median estimates. policymakers, however, may now approach the question of when and how much to cut more cautiously as they assess how donald trump's economic proposals will be turned into actual policies when he becomes president. in his campaign, trump promised tax cuts and to employ tariffs more aggressively against us trading partners. these policies, if enacted, could put upward pressure on prices and the federal deficit, according to many economists. and that would complicate the fed'sjob, as officials aim to lower inflation to the 2% target while protecting the labour market. and, as they strive to achieve

that mandate, the central bank could fall under an uncomfortable political spotlight. trump has said he wants to influence the fed's decisions, potentially clashing with the central bank's autonomy. joining me now is independent markets analyst edward moya. hello to you, edward. i assume you are with the majority and expect rates to be cut in the us today. expect rates to be cut in the us today-— expect rates to be cut in the us toda . , . ,., ~ us today. very much so. i think the fed has _ us today. very much so. i think the fed has been _ us today. very much so. i think the fed has been very - the fed has been very consistent with their messaging and they don't want to surprise markets so they are going to go forward with a rate cut and it will be 25 basis points. what they will try to avoid is giving any signals as far as what they will be doing in the next couple of meetings. i think they want to assess exactly what will happen with all the elections we have. we are still trying to find out, will the republicans get the house? if they do,

president—elect trump will have a good chance to turn all of his economic proposals into actual policy and that will have a major impact on growth, inflation, and the fed will really need to restart their summary of economic projections and i think in december they will have some major changes with that. will have some ma'or changes with that. ~ ., will have some ma'or changes with that. ~ . ., will have some ma'or changes with that. what about jerome powell? what _ with that. what about jerome powell? what happens - with that. what about jerome powell? what happens with l powell? what happens with regard to his job? powell? what happens with regard to hisjob? we know the central bank is independent, but president trump... well, when he becomes president, he is likely to have someone in that position who is more in line with his thinking was yellow they have a very bumpy relationship over the years. we have to ., , ,., ., have to do... president obama appointed _ have to do... president obama appointed powell _ have to do... president obama appointed powell to _ have to do... president obama appointed powell to the - have to do... president obama appointed powell to the board| appointed powell to the board of governors. when trump became president he made him fed chair and a couple of months ago with

that half rate cut in september, president trump was very critical of powell and saying he was trying to support the democrats. there is a lot of unhappiness that we hear from president trump, but i think he will probably keep powell in place as long as he has the economy heading in the direction he needs and as long as rates are not too high. we will see what happens. a lot will see what happens. a lot will depend on other factors and i think it will depend on, can he push his economic agenda forward? ., can he push his economic agenda forward? . ., ~ , ., forward? edward, thank you, we appreciate _ forward? edward, thank you, we appreciate your _ forward? edward, thank you, we appreciate your analysis. - during his campaign, trump made broad policy pledges, often lacking specific details, based on principles of non—interventionism and trade protectionism — or as he puts it "america first". during his campaign rallies he said "tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary" and proposed to add 10% to 20% tariffs on most foreign goods entering

the us and much higher tariffs on chinese goods. across asia and europe policymakers are braced for the reality injanuary when trump takes office — will he deliver on those promises and what will it mean for global trade? joining me is kadee russ — professor and chair of economics at the university of california, davis. kadee also served as senior economist for international trade and finance for the white house council of economic advisers during 2015 and �*i6 — just before trumps previous term in office. just before trump's previous term in office. what do you think he will do? just explain to our audience, when it comes to tariffs, he can just when it comes to tariffs, he canjust go ahead when it comes to tariffs, he can just go ahead with those, can't he? he can write an executive order.- can't he? he can write an executive order. yes, they are . uite executive order. yes, they are quite vast _ executive order. yes, they are quite vast powers _ executive order. yes, they are quite vast powers for - executive order. yes, they are quite vast powers for a - executive order. yes, they are | quite vast powers for a present to impose tariffs even though this authority is technically delegated by the congress. they

have not often pushed back on presidents exercising power under various trade acts. even rather old trade acts. he may impose tariffs of 10% to 20% across the board. he has also talked about tariffs of 60% on chinese goods in addition and he has talked about measures to decouple us trade from china on electronics, pharmaceuticals, other goods that he deems critical for various national security or other interests. so these are pretty significant premises on trade policy. but it will be interesting to see what actually does happen, what the reality is. many describe donald trump as a transactional leader. it is all about the negotiation, all about clinching the deal. and so his

initial sort of statement, 10%, 20%, 60%, may look very different, do you think? it is very hard — different, do you think? it is very hard to _ different, do you think? it is very hard to say. _ different, do you think? it is very hard to say. long - different, do you think? it 3 very hard to say. long before he ran for president the first time he advocated a 25% tariffs on chinese goods and we saw something approaching that happen during his first term in office. he seems pretty serious when he talks about this, even though he does use the threat of tariffs as leveraged when negotiating various treaties i think the growth impacts of the initial rounds of tariffs in 2018 and 2019, the costs have been shown to be quite high for the us. 1% lower gdp by 2020, about $1700 per us household on average. and up to about

250,000 fewer manufacturing jobs because of increased costs for us manufacturers using imported goods targeted by the tariffs. those were not across—the—board tariffs. when across—the—boa rd tariffs. when we across—the—board tariffs. when we are thinking about across the board tariffs, companies cannot circumvent those, as many have been shown to be doing three foreign direct investments, moving operations to countries that have not been targeted by additional tariffs. it is harder to get around those. there's also talk of increased barriers to foreign direct investment which would prevent foreign companies from jumping the tariff barriers by in the us. so we could probably anticipate larger impacts to the us economy. shill anticipate larger impacts to the us economy.— anticipate larger impacts to the us economy. all right. we have to leave _ the us economy. all right. we have to leave it _ the us economy. all right. we have to leave it there - the us economy. all right. we have to leave it there but - the us economy. all right. we have to leave it there but we l have to leave it there but we your expertise in this area. kadee russ with her thoughts on global trade. we have to mention germany. a political

crisis has erupted. germany's three—party coalition has collapsed after ministers from the free democrats quit the government, likely paving the way for early elections next year. their exit comes after german chancellor olaf scholz, sacked his finance minister. he said christian lindner, who leads the free democrats, had broken his trust too often, making serious government work impossible. translation: too often, - after the necessary compromises have been drowned up by publicly staged disputes and loud, ideological demands. too often, federal minister lindner has blocked laws and in an irrelevant manager. too often, he's engaged in petty party political tactics. too often, he's broken my trust. even unilaterally withdrew from the budget agreement after we had already agreed on it in lengthy negotiations. there is no basis of trust for further cooperation. serious government work is not possible in this way.

this is expected to trigger a general election in germany early next year and leaves a void at the heart of europe just as concern is growing in eu capitals over what a second trump presidency will mean for transatlantic relations. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.

here in the uk, it is hoped interest rates will be coming down here too today as the bank of england has its meeting. most economists predict the cost of borrowing will be cut by a quarter of a percent which would take the benchmark rate from 5% to 4.75%. but following the chancellor's bumper budget that was announced last week, and the outcome of the us election, what is ahead? joe nellis is economic adviser to mha and professor of global economy at cranfield university.

hello to you. do you expect rates to come down today? i absolutely do expect them to fall today, and if they didn't fall today, and if they didn't fall today, and if they didn't fall today it would be one of the biggest shocks in terms of the biggest shocks in terms of the economy. all the analysts and markets expect a rate cut today. and markets expect a rate cut toda . �* ., and markets expect a rate cut toda . �* . ., , , today. but what will happen auoin today. but what will happen going forward? _ today. but what will happen going forward? some - today. but what will happen going forward? some say i today. but what will happen l going forward? some say now interest rates might have to go up interest rates might have to go up next year. i interest rates might have to go up next year-— up next year. i am not as pessimistic _ up next year. i am not as pessimistic as _ up next year. i am not as pessimistic as that, - up next year. i am not as pessimistic as that, but l up next year. i am not as pessimistic as that, but i | pessimistic as that, but i don't expect another cut in the december meeting on the 19th. we were factoring in two cuts before christmas time but i think now one cot is nailed on, going forward, the markets generally expect inflation to rise again above 2%. you may recall it fell to 1.7% last month so we will see inflation moved back up above 2% but i would not be too worried about it. the bank of england knows this will happen, so i think

they will cut again but next year we were expecting perhaps for macro cuts. i think now the markets expect more likely to weigh three cuts in interest rates but we are going in the right direction but not as fast as previously expected. and right direction but not as fast as previously expected. and now the bank as previously expected. and now the itank of _ as previously expected. and now the bank of england _ as previously expected. and now the bank of england has - as previously expected. and now the bank of england has to - the bank of england has to consider notjust the budget in the uk but also what might happen next in the us and that is quite tricky to predict at this point. it is quite tricky to predict at this point-— this point. it is, and you heard from _ this point. it is, and you heard from your - this point. it is, and you| heard from your previous speakers that the new president will be much more protectionist, as he was during his first term in office. the consequence of that is that goods coming from the usa are likely to slow down to some extent and maybe be a bit more expensive. the strengthening of the dollar is also a factor. the us situation is very important to the uk, but actually i think what is happening in europe is even more important. we need a strong europe because they are still our biggest single trading partner so we are being

bombarded on both sides of what is happening elsewhere. certainly are, thank you for your time. joe nellis. thank ou. president—elect donald trump has said he will roll back green regulations that act as obstacles to oil and gas drilling and coal mining. so what does that mean for investment in renewable energy? bob dudley is the former ceo of bp, and he told the bbc�*s business editor, simon jack, that with only 8% of renewable energy powering the us, there cannot be a move away from fossil fuels such as natural gas in the near future. across both political spectrums, when it has now sunk in — the amount of energy required for these new data centres — the attitude towards the industry in general is different and it's changing and it's more positive — recognise we need this. it's interesting — you say oil and gas will be needed to power the technologies of the future, including ai, at least in the short term. i think the energy transition has been turned on its head in the last year because of the big data centres that are planned.

the power consumption of those is going to be enormous, and you can't do it all with renewables. for me, it's one of the first times i've seen such a radical change, um, in terms of energy demand related to these data centres. it will mean a role for natural gas to play that — it's a cleaner—burning fuel certainly than oil — and i think the world is going to change. and so people have to get pragmatic and realistic about both the cost, it's going to take longer than people thought — but that's going to be the reality of it. and it's notjust going to be politicians who will feel the effects of this — it's going to be everyday citizens. their cost of energy will go up, and emissions are going to take a little bit longer than everybody hoped for. and that's the reality of it. it's going to be difficult being a politician in what is going to be, i say, the new reality going forward. there will be some people who think that the election of donald trump for a second term is a disaster

for the climate. well, clearly the election was not about the climate. i mean, it was about crime and people's security and open borders, and... i don't think climate was part of the...part of the equation, people's thinking. there are too many other important things that people feel like that needed action sooner. generally across the united states, people are sympathetic and supportive of the climate initiatives. people would like to see as much renewables as can be developed in the united states. it's just hard because, you know, the amount of power that comes out of a solar panel compared to some liquid fuels is a totally different — you have to carpet the united states with wind and solar to be able to power the united states with renewables and, i mean, that's not realistic. this has been called

the ai election. with help from social media, deepfakes generated with artificial intelligence have already made their way to voters in elections around the world. the us was no exception. but new detection tools could help. here's our north america technology correspondent lilyjamali. maybe you've seen these images floating around social media. fake hurricane victims, fabricated celebrity endorsements. this fake image of kamala harris was even shared by elon musk on x back in september. it's quite a high—quality image, but it's definitely fake. that's oren etzioni, founder of truemedia.org — one of at least a dozen deepfake detection tools that aim to help users identify ai—generated content on social media. media processed by the site gets colour—coded tags to — in theory — alert users to potentially false information. red — fake, likely to be manipulated. yellow — inconclusive, uncertain. or green — it's likely to be real. and in this election, voters need the help.

on social media, often images are compressed, you're looking at them on your phone screen. the bottom line is people often cannot tell. to test the tool out, we made some short deepfakes of our own. today we're going to talk about some things i've been seeing... we have three models saying "fake, fake, fake". we even have 100% confidence. with this deepfake video, however, the tool wasn't as certain. and looks like the models came back and were uncertain about the face. one detected with middling confidence, and one said there was little evidence. etzioni is open about how these models don't catch fake images 100% of the time, but he argues truemedia is still a valuable tool to the average voter trying to tell truth from fiction. others say deepfake detection tools oversimplify what is actually a very complicated process. forensic analysis is hard. it's not a push—button solution. and on a good day, an individualtask, it's going to be wrong 10% of the time.

you can't operate at that scale at the internet — there are billions of uploads every day. digital forensics expert hany farid of uc berkeley says these tools have the potential to do more harm than good. the nightmare situation is a real video gets out there, one of these techniques misfires — which has happened — and now you've empowered the lie. ora fake piece of content, it misfires as it's real — now you've empowered the lie because now you have — "hey, this technique said it's real," or "this technique said it's fake" and that — now you've made things worse! we got mixed results, as well. take this instagram photo of the actress jennifer aniston. truemedia clears the original post as real, but this screenshot of it shared on x is marked as uncertain. truemedia says being transparent about that kind of uncertainty helps. they also have humans step in as needed. but the internet isn't known for nuance. so in the meantime, farid says the best way to limit exposure to deepfakes is... get the hell off of social media.

and seek out reliable sources. lilyjamali, bbc news, silicon valley. let's look at the markets in asia. japan is up. well, it is actually down slightly at the moment but was up earlier. a very weakjapanese yen means japanese goods are much cheaper overseas. china today has actually weakened its official exchange rate against a resurgent us dollar. so china has actually lowered its own levels and exchange rates to try to bolster the value of its currency as things are on the move dramatically following that result in the us. that is all from me. thank you for your company. i will see very soon.

hello there. high pressure has dominated the weather story so far this november. it's brought a lot of quiet weather around, but at times a misty autumnal flavour. we barely saw the tops of the skyscrapers of the city of london on wednesday, but further north and west there were brief glimpses of sunshine and some warmth. temperatures in fermanagh peaking at 18 celsius. now that warmth is staying with us. so dawn, those temperatures not having fallen very far at all. 13 degrees in stornoway. the average overnight low at this stage in the year should be around 3 or 4 celsius here. so the high pressure just drifts that little bit further east. we're still tapping into this southerly flow, that's pushing the warm air from the near continent across us. a little bit more of a breeze, though, out towards the west, and that has the potential maybe to break the cloud up a little bit in west wales and certainly across northern areas of scotland in particular. elsewhere, after a misty start, a lot of low grey cloud for much of central and eastern

england, but it'll still be mild out there. generally temperatures 12—14 celsius, but we could see mid—teens, maybe even higher in the far north—west once again. into friday, subtle change in wind direction could bring a little more sunshine for some, a bit more of a south—easterly that could break the cloud up in a few spots. so once again we will be chasing cloud amounts around. but because the wind direction changing a little — slightly fresher feel, we're looking at around 10—13 celsius for many. as we move into the weekend, well, weather fronts are trying desperately hard to push in from the west, but obviously the highs blocking them and weakening them off all the time, so there's a risk of a little more cloud out to the west on saturday, the odd spot or two of drizzly, showery rain. nothing particularly significant. another grey day, a quiet day, light winds and a pleasant feel out there for many. so we'll see top temperatures again between 11—14 celsius, perhaps 16, in the far south—west.

into sunday, there is a greater chance of seeing a weather front producing some rain. now, again, the rain will weaken as it moves its way steadily eastwards, but it's a cold front and behind it it's introducing a slightly different air source, and that will bring some fresher weather. so the potential for some light rain on sunday. by the time we get into monday, a little more sun.

good morning, welcome to breakfast with charlie stayt and naga munchetty. our headlines today. kamala harris concedes the us presidential election to donald trump. while i concede this election, i do not concede the fight that fuelled this campaign. cheering. good morning from washington. president biden is due to address the nation today as america prepares for a second trump era. the next president is now choosing his senior team. will there be a government role for his billionaire supporter elon musk? sir keir starmer has called donald trump to congratulate him. we'll be getting more reaction from leaders around the world.

could we see a cut in interest rates today?