tv Business Today BBC News November 8, 2024 5:30am-6:01am GMT
5:30 am
the us federal reserve delivers another rate cut. but is fed chair, jerome powell, on a collision course with president—elect donald trump? how will china meet the threat posed by tariffs promissed by president—elsect trump? bank of england governor, andrew bailey, says the direction of interest rates in the uk is downwards. plus — meet the future of social media influencers. picture—perfect and completely artificial. live from london, this is business today, i'm lukwesa burak. the federal reserve cut its key lending rate by a quarter of a point, in its first meeting since donald trump's historic election victory. while trump's re—election makes the future path of interest rates much murkier, one thing is clear — federal reserve chair, jerome powell, has no plans to step down.
5:31 am
for more, let's get to new york and our north america business correspondent, ritika gupta. the federal reserve chair, jerome powell, said he would not leave his post if asked by president—elect donald trump. he hit back that the president does not have the legal power to fire or demote him. some of the president—elect�*s advisers have suggested you should resign. if he asked you to leave, would you go? no. can you follow—up on — do you think legally, you're not required to leave? no. in his presser on thursday, the fed chair was inundated with questions about how officials may be adjusting economic forecasts in response to trump's reelection. powell said the election outcome would not affect what policymakers do in the near—term because it's too early to know what actions the trump administration will take, and he added that officials do not adjust their forecast
5:32 am
until after a law has been passed. powell spoke after a unanimous decision by officials to cut interest rates by a quarter point, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5—75% — and it came on the heels of a larger half—point cut back in september. overall, powell didn't offer too much forward guidance on where rates could go from here, keeping his options open for the december meeting and beyond. though he stressed that officials can take their time to lower their rates because the economy is strong. joining me now is pete earle, senior economist at the american institute for economic research. hello to you, pete, welcome. jerome powell — what did you make of his comments yesterday? well, powell is trying to make clear that the fed is an independent agency, and also that, despite many of the comments mr trump is made on the campaign trail, that the only reason the chairman can be
5:33 am
removed is for misconduct of some type. so he's not going to step down and he won't be intimidated, if that was the purpose of the many comments that were made on the campaign trail. �* . , that were made on the campaign trail. �* ., , , ., trail. and he was questioned, and obviously _ trail. and he was questioned, and obviously two _ trail. and he was questioned, and obviously two curt - trail. and he was questioned, l and obviously two curt answers as to whether he would step down or not if he was fired — take us through the legalities of it. donald trump actually appointed him back in 2018, so what's their beef?— what's their beef? well, the thin is what's their beef? well, the thing is mr _ what's their beef? well, the thing is mr trump _ what's their beef? well, the thing is mr trump has - what's their beef? well, the thing is mr trump has said l what's their beef? well, the l thing is mr trump has said on numerous occasions that he feels the president should have a role in setting interest rates, should be part of the federal open market committee meetings, and also, in several junctions in his first administration, mrtrump junctions in his first administration, mr trump seemed to be implying that the fed should be lowering rates when there was not much reason to do so, because i believe mr trump wanted to give the economy sort of a more upward trajectory if
5:34 am
you will, creating more money — which is not the fed'sjob, theirjob is to set prices in a way, interest rates so that prices are stable and unemployment is as low as possible. and that seemed to be that mr trump wanted them to do something more dynamic than that. mr something more dynamic than that. ~ ., ., that. mr powell also spoke about mr _ that. mr powell also spoke about mr trump _ that. mr powell also spoke about mr trump not - that. mr powell also spoke i about mr trump not affecting the outlook for the federal reserve, but he did add a caveat, didn't he? he said that, whatever administration came in which shape fed policy. so when we look at with mr trump has in store for his economic priorities, how realistic are those concealer right, so right now, the market imlied right, so right now, the market implied policy _ right, so right now, the market implied policy rates _ right, so right now, the market implied policy rates are - implied policy rates are predicting 100 basis points of cuts into a 25, which seems to be very uncertain given what mr
5:35 am
trump wants. for example, if he comes in and the second trump administration slashes regulations, taxes, and other costs to business, we can see the kind of growth that would see the 100 basis points. and if we see tariffs imposed, like the extreme ones, the fed might find itself forced to cut more aggressively. so it's very much aggressively. so it's very much a case where whatever policies are put in place by the trump administration when they take office injanuary, it will affect what the trajectory of interest rate policies is. peter earl, thank you very much for your time. donald trump's win this week makes a us trade war with china almost inevitable. the chinese authorities have under three months until president—elect trump is inaugurated, but in reality they have been thinking about this scenario for at least 18 months — and a package of measures expected to be announced at this week's china's
5:36 am
national people's congress, which culminates today, could go some way minimizing the impact of eye watering us tariffs. earlier in the week, premier li qiang recently reiterated that the country is on track to hit its growth target of around 5% this year. i'm joined by duncan wrigley, chief china economist at pantheon macroeconomics. welcome to you, just starting to see some comments coming out of china — the chinese ambassador has been talking about china not being seen as a competitor. there's this looming threat which is completely inconsistent with facts. is that true? i completely inconsistent with facts. is that true?— facts. is that true? i think it's true — facts. is that true? i think it's true that _ facts. is that true? i think it's true that china - facts. is that true? i think it's true that china has - facts. is that true? i think l it's true that china has seen mr trump as a president before,
5:37 am
that was back in 2018—19 when he launched the first the first trade war with china, so many of china's leaders were already in place are at high levels. so i think they're expecting him to follow through on his promises to impose very large tariffs on imports from china. so they are meeting and there is the stimulus package being discussed and would be voted on — how far can china go to mitigate what could come from america? 50 mitigate what could come from america? ,, ., mitigate what could come from america? ~' mitigate what could come from america? ~ ., ., , america? so i think china, as ou america? so i think china, as you say. _ america? so i think china, as you say, there's _ america? so i think china, as you say, there's reports - america? so i think china, as you say, there's reports that| you say, there's reports that they are discussing potentially a very large stimulus package. a key part of it will be to deal with boosting domestic demand. in some of that can go some way to mitigating the
5:38 am
impact of a big dent in exports to the us. exports from china to the us. exports from china to the us have shrunk, but still substantial — and if there's a big step down, it'll still have a shock to china, there china can mitigate it somewhat. {iii there china can mitigate it somewhat-— there china can mitigate it somewhat. ., ., , somewhat. of the two economies, eve bod somewhat. of the two economies, everybody knows _ somewhat. of the two economies, everybody knows that _ somewhat. of the two economies, everybody knows that tariffs - everybody knows that tariffs are not good for both sides will stop which of the economies, us or china, has more capacity within it? the effects are _ more capacity within it? the effects are slightly - more capacity within it? tue: effects are slightly different. the us economy is probably in the stronger position right now, it seems to be going through a soft landing. the impact on the us economy will probably be inflationary, and therefore a slower pace of rate cuts from the fed. but it's still in reasonably good shape as trump takes office. whereas china is in a malaise they are struggling to get out of. duncan, thanks very much for
5:39 am
that. us markets had another good day thursday, while the dow was absolutely flat, the nasdaq and the snp 500 set new record higthere are the numbers. markets were cheered by fed chairjerome powell's tone — which, as we've heard, kept the door open to further interest rate cuts. joining me is janet mui, head of market analysis, rbc brewin dolphin. hello, janet, welcome to the programme. the big question is, how long is this market rally likely to happen?— how long is this market rally likely to happen? good morning, thanks for having _ likely to happen? good morning, thanks for having me. _ likely to happen? good morning, thanks for having me. we - likely to happen? good morning, thanks for having me. we do - thanks for having me. we do believe that there are a few support centres for the us equity market to continue rising. . first of all, i think this trade war is still likely to go on a bit, we don't have
5:40 am
the details of who will take the details of who will take the house of representatives, and i think it's confirmed that if there is a red flip, that means a lot of the progrowth policy is likely to pass through. and secondly, the fed is likely to keep cutting — and jerome powell yesterday reiterated that the policy rate is still too high to where it should be, so we should expect interest rate cuts to go further. in terms of the us economy, it's still very robust, the copper earnings season says copper is still getting good results. these are reasons why we should expect the us to chart much higher. when we talk about earnings, when it comes to the ten richest men turned off the back of mr trump is my collection $64 billion of mr trump is my collection $61; billion once mr trump was elected — is that likely to
5:41 am
trend, orwill elected — is that likely to trend, or will it go back to the people who put mr trump in power? the people who put mr trump in ower? , ., , , , power? obviously these billionaires, _ power? obviously these billionaires, their - power? obviously these l billionaires, their fortunes billionaires, theirfortunes are tied to this could not prices, and receive the equity prices, and receive the equity prices rising substantially —— tied to stock prices. what you have to understand is that actually, a lot of americans have skin in the game in the us equity market, for example, in their retirement saving plans, they are very highly exposed to us domestic stocks. so on that front, the whole wealth of us households is positive on aggregate, so i think it would be positive generally for the general financial well—being of american households to have exposure to us equities. janet, thank you _ exposure to us equities. janet, thank you very _ exposure to us equities. janet, thank you very much _ exposure to us equities. janet, thank you very much for - exposure to us equities. janet, thank you very much for that. l the governor of the bank of england, andrew bailey,
5:42 am
has told the bbc the path for interest rate cuts in the uk is "downward from here", but said it would be gradual because of domestic and foreign risks. speaking to our economics editor faisal islam after the bank lowered interest rates to 4.75% from 5%, mr bailey said that whilst he could never entirely draw a line under the inflation crisis, it was "good news" that inflation had come down "faster and further" than we expected. well, the good news is — and this is really what's driving the cut primarily — is that inflation has come down not only a long way, but it's actually come down faster and further by this point in time than we expected it to. and obviously, that's really very good news. so, just to give you an example, it's about 1% lower now than a year ago, we thought it would be now. so that's good — and that's really what's given us the confidence to to make the next cut. i do think it will probably go up a bit in the coming months — that's to do really with with unwind of energy price effects.
5:43 am
but let me emphasise a bit, because these are quite small movements compared to — very small movements compared to what we've seen. and so, we can draw a line under this, these years of crisis? well, you can never draw a line under the whole, obviously, the challenge of inflation. that's ourjob, and we do it permanently and continuously. but i think people might want some reassurance, to know that... well, what i would say is, i think that the path of rates is downward from here for — we'll see how quickly and how much. i do emphasise the word "gradual", which we've used, and the reason for that is that there are a lot of risks out there, both in the world at large and also domestically — we've still got risks, so we'll have to judge that carefully. but, you know, i would say i think the path is downward. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.
5:45 am
to workers rather than those who own companies and resources has fallen to a record low of 52.3%. it comes as boeing workers in the us secured a 38% pay rise and indonesia's trade unions have confirmed nationwide strikes will go ahead this month, which could see five million people on the streets over issues including the minimum wage. tadhg enright asked the ilo's celeste drake why a smaller share of the economic pie was going to workers. some of this has to do with covid, because, during the covid period, many workers lost jobs, and many of the others were on reduced hours. so, that was a decrease for worker income, even as the share of global income that was going to capital was increasing, and that was then therefore mostly into the hands of the wealthy. but it's notjust covid — technology has a lot to do with this and,
5:46 am
as we bring in new kinds of technology, whether it's robotics or artificial intelligence, that has a positive shock, a really positive effect on labour productivity. but unfortunately, what we've seen is that workers have not shared fairly in the gains from that productivity. does this growing disparity between workers and those who own capital, such as land, factories, or patents, concern you? it does concern us, because it means that we're falling behind on what the united nations calls the sdgs — the sustainable development goals. and there are two in particular that are related to this — one is reducing inequalities, but also sdg 10, which isjob creation and decent work. so, it's notjust any jobs that are created, but it's jobs where workers are safe, where they can exercise freedom of association and engage in collective
5:47 am
bargaining. and you can see more of that interview and find out more about how workers falling share is affecting the global economy, on talking business this weekend, right here on bbc news — the first airing is at 2230 gmt on friday. now to japan — where shares in nissan are down by more than 6%. it follows the announcement ofjob cuts on thursday. let's cross over live to our asia business hub — where mariko 0i has been watching the story for us. mariko, it's notjust nissan, but other car—makers are struggling, too? yes, you are absolutely right. japan's the largest car makers — toyota, nissan, and honda — reported their results this week, and they've all been affected by slowing sales in china, partly because of the
5:48 am
challenges facing the economy that we've been talking about, but also because of heavy price competition against chinese rivals like b so toyota reported its first fall in its quarterly profit in two years, stalling its recent run of a record profit — while honda also reported a fall in profit and reduced its annual profit forecast as well. but nissan by far is the worst performer — it actually lost money, because nissan is more focused on electric cars whose sales have been slowing down globally, while toyota and honda still have strong hybrid offerings. as a result, nissan is cutting 9000 jobs — about 7% of its global workforce — we still don't know where those job cuts will take place. its shares have actually fallen by as much as 10% today because of that announcement. of course, these are notjust problems for japanese car—makers, european firms have also been struggling with for example volkswagen closing some plants in germany for the first time in its
5:49 am
history. and all the car—makers outside the us are also nervously waiting for the second trump presidency, because he has threatened higher tariffs and also is largely condemned electric cars, despite his close relationship with elon musk. thank you very much indeed. bentley has pushed back its timeline to exclusively cell electric vehicles. the company will now give itself a decade more to reach the goal — instead of 2030, as originally planned, bentley's boss says it needs to be all finest stomach honest as there's not a lot of demand for tvs. shares of trump media have plunged by more than 20% in the united states. the donald trump owned company, which runs the truth the —— truth social company, recently reported losses in the quarter. but its shares briefly surged
5:50 am
when mr trump won the presidential election early this week, setting up his historic return to the white house. artificial intelligence influencers are a growing industry, with some ai models gaining hundreds of thousands of followers and getting increasingly lucrative sponsorship deals. aitana is one of the world's most popular ai models — known for her stylish pink hair. the bbc�*s cyber correspondent visits her barcelona—based creators, who are responsible for curating aitana's life. a photo shoot with no model. she's not late, though — she doesn't exist. aitana is an ai model. since she was created around a year ago, she's amassed a big following and is making thousands a month for her ba rcelona—based agency. we intend to always try to make it as similar as what any influencer would do. we take a picture with me in the image — and we have to replace it with al, so we have to play a bit
5:51 am
with the lights and shadows to make it as possible. maybe barcelona as the background will be more interesting? touch—ups used to take around a day, but now it's a few hours because of how the ai's improved so much. here's the final product. the studio says they can get thousands of pounds a month for sponsored posts and endorsements with aitana. her virtual life is built for her mostly male fans — a key demographic for these ai models. some find the message they're sending to boys and girls troubling. i see huge issues with the rise of ai in models and influencers. i think they are setting an unrealistic beauty standard that is close enough to being real, that a lot of people who follow them don't realise they're not real — especially teenagers, young teen girls. aitana is marketed as a fitness—loving woman who lives a healthy lifestyle. she's even been sponsored by nutrition and sports brands. is there a problem where you're promoting a body image of someone that is, in many ways, perfect — and there
5:52 am
are some people, some of your follows that say, "i wish i had that body"? in the beginning, we tried to make more curvy models, for example, or not standardised models — and clients didn't like that. but you can see these everywhere. comparing her to the rest of the influencers, she looks the same as the rest. the agency started creating more models with more diverse looks, including some men, too — although apparently marketeers aren't as interested in male ai models. the latest project is for a major car company. the brief is to design an ai model to be the face for an in—car ai voice assistant — a very 2024 assignment. joe tidy, bbc news. i'm joined by rahul titus, global head of influence at 0gilvy. hello, lovely to have you with us. ~ ., i
5:53 am
hello, lovely to have you with us-- i was _ hello, lovely to have you with us.- i was watching l us. morning. iwas watching that and my _ us. morning. iwas watching that and my heart _ us. morning. iwas watching that and my heart was - us. morning. iwas watching that and my heart wasjust i that and my heart was just sinking. that and my heart was 'ust sinkinu. �* ., that and my heart was 'ust sinkinu. ., , , , ., sinking. i'm not surprised at that at all. _ sinking. i'm not surprised at that at all. listen, _ sinking. i'm not surprised at that at all. listen, we've - sinking. i'm not surprised at| that at all. listen, we've had virtual influencers for a while, but now we have ai coming in, they're becoming smarter, faster and quicker. and also, as more companies have more influencers, their questions around, is authentic and ethical, is at the right thing to do? especially when you have over 300 million real influencers today. fin you have over 300 million real influencers today.— you have over 300 million real influencers today. on the point of authenticity, _ influencers today. on the point of authenticity, the _ influencers today. on the point of authenticity, the reason - influencers today. on the point of authenticity, the reason my | of authenticity, the reason my heart sank was, i was looking at that able —— ai influencer — she's not real, there's nothing really authentic about her as a really authentic about her as a real woman. and that can cause real woman. and that can cause real damage, can't it, to those who don't get it, the young? absolutely, and i think this is why as marketeers, we have a duty of care to make sure we are using ai ethically. ai is a
5:54 am
wonderful enabler if used in the right way. i think we're still quite early on in the process of seeing how ai influencers are becoming part and parcel of marketing, but there is a time and place for it. one of the things we do here is the the ai accountability act, which is making sure that if you're using ai, you're disclosing it to your audience is. because the one thing that makes influence and marketing work today is trust. people trust people more than brands, and that's why brands use influencers. as soon as you lose that trust, that's the end of influencer marketing as we see it. so we have to be quite careful and considerate. and if you look at the platforms today, they are starting become part of the solution. platforms like tiktok, at the end of last year, kmart launched — you could disclose the fact that you are using ai, so people know. so there are solutions that are helping, but you're absolutely right, authenticity is key here, and they are still
5:55 am
figuring out the right balance. ai influencers, or rather influences that occur influencers, are there because of using a certain brand or promoting a product, for example. ai will never really give a true review of a product, will it? how do you trust priscilla that's a great question. and you know what, we don't know, because if you look at what ai is doing, it's amalgamating the best of it and giving you a solution. but people go to influencers — exactly what you said, trust and authenticity, and a real point of view. and again, where we are today, they have nothing to worry about. i'm so sorry, we've run out of time! there was so much more i wanted to discuss with you, but for now, thank you very much. this is bbc news.
5:56 am
hello there. high pressure continues to dominate. for many, a lot of low, grey cloud around on thursday. but for a favoured few, we had some sunshine north—west wales, north—west england along with the far north of scotland, a beautiful day here. and temperatures responded — a high of 19 celsius. quite unusual to get 19 celsius in scotland, in november — it's only happened twice in the last 20 years. but in staffordshire, it's a disappointing day, where the cloud lingered and the mist lurked — only a high of nine celsius. now, as we move out of thursday into friday, we're still under this influence of high pressure. bit more of a breeze out towards the west, continuing — and that is the reason for breaking up some of the cloud on thursday. so, there is a chance that we could see that happening again during friday. we start off on a relatively mild note, 8—9 celsius in the east, double digits out to the west. again, a cloudy, misty start across central and south—east england. the mist lifting to low cloud.
5:57 am
hopefully, the breeze will break up the cloud, particularly once again in northern scotland. so, there will be some glimpses of sunshine for some, and temperatures again ranging between 12—13 celsius — we might see a 16 if we get the sunshine coming through. then, as we move into saturday, almost a repeat performance once again. a lot of cloud around. by the end of the day we could see some patchy drizzle into northern ireland, perhaps wales and southwest england, as well. scotland could again see the best of any sunny breaks. 11—14 celsius here — we might again get 16 somewhere in the south—west. sunday, remembrance sunday, anotherfront will move in — this time, it could bring some showery outbreaks of rain with it but, as that front moves through, it's a cold front. it's going to introduce cleaner, fresher air following on behind — welcome news for many of us. top temperatures through sunday afternoon, again, between 12—16 celsius. but as we move into monday and that weather front eases away, we see this area of high pressure building
5:58 am
6:00 am
hello, this is breakfast with naga munchetty and charlie stayt. the headlines. donald trump begins to appoint its top team for his second stint in the white house, as presidentjoe biden promises a peaceful transfer of power. prince william says he has had the hardest year of his life following his father and wife having cancer treatment. three people have been charged in connection with the death of one direction star liam payne. the other thread liverpool baby hospice zoe's place has 2a hours to meet its fundraising target. in sport, relief at last for manchester united, a double from diallo at old trafford helps them to get their first win in europe for more than a year. blue skies forjust one or two,
17 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
BBC NewsUploaded by TV Archive on
![](http://athena.archive.org/0.gif?kind=track_js&track_js_case=control&cache_bust=1646750266)