tv The Context BBC News November 11, 2024 9:00pm-9:31pm GMT
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he could stop the war in a day, i don't think he can do that. armistice day is a moment of reflection, i think- it always has been, _ but particularly a poignant one now given the state of affairs, given america's increasing - distance from europe strategically and - mentally, emotionally. the question for us would be if europe — the question for us would be if europe wanted to backfill weapons that weren't coming from — weapons that weren't coming from america, would we have the will but _ from america, would we have the will but also what we have the capacity? _ will but also what we have the capacity? my concern is actually _ capacity? my concern is actually we do not have the capacity _ joining me tonight are lindy li, us democratic strategist and lord peter ricketts, former british ambassador to france and nato and former uk national security adviser.
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first, the latest headlines. on the first day of the cop29 climate summit, the un's world meteorological organisation has warned that this year is set to be the hottest on record. temperatures so far this year have exceeded 1.5 degrees celsius over pre—industrial levels. in britain, the bishop of newcastle has become the first senior member of the church of england to call for the resignation of the archbishop of canterbury, justin welby, over a child abuse scandal. helen—ann hartley said the position of the spiritual leader of the anglican church was untenable. the saudi crown prince mohammed bin salman has called on israel to respect the sovereignty of iran at a summit of arab and muslim leaders in riyadh. in the latest sign of improved relations between riyadh and tehran, the crown prince said that israel should not launch attacks on iranian soil. spain's prime minister, pedro sanchez, has announced
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another $4 billion—worth of aid for areas hit by the recent deadly floods. last week, he signed off an initial package of $11 billion. more than 220 people died in the flash floods that hit valencia and nearby areas nearly two weeks ago. sir keir starmer has met french president emmanuel macron in paris to discuss ukraine — amid deep uncertainty about whether the united states will continue to support it after donald trump's election victory. it's the first time since 19114 that a british prime minister has stood alongside his french counterpart in paris on armistice day. mr starmer and emmanuel macron stood side by side at the tomb of the unknown soldier under the arc de triomphe, before meeting veterans. as well as reflecting on the past, they discussed the future of the conflict in ukraine after mr trump's
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return to the white house. the us president—elect has said he could end ukraine's war with russia injust "one day" though his precise plans on the conflict are still not clear. in the last hour, i spoke to former chief of staff of the us marines in europe, colonel brendan kearney, and editor in chief at ukraine analytica hanna shelest about the situation. you know, ijust cannot see him letting go of ukraine completely — american support for it. uh, there's a... the republican party is pretty steadfast behind the ukrainians. there are critics. they exist. the democrats are pretty steadfast in their support also. so i think as we get closer to the administration taking over injanuary, i think there will probably be a very, very significant re—evaluation on the part of trump and his and his
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advisers as he puts his team of trump and his advisers as he puts his team together as to what actually is going to happen in terms of american support for ukraine. try to imagine when the north koreans are supplying more ammunition to ukraine than the whole european union, then the united states are withdrawing, what message we are sending to the battlefield to the soldiers, but also politically and globally for the role of the united states. so i would say that the withdrawal of the united states support would have devastating effect, both for the battlefield, but also for the image of the united states and their relations with the partners around the globe who are looking at how the us would support them in case any type of crisis would start. but if we speakjust about the physical material support that we are receiving, the issue is that definitely for the last year, we had a significant increase of the european support.
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let's talk about what happens nextin let's talk about what happens next in ukraine. lindy li, us democratic strategist lord peter ricketts, former british ambassador to france and nato and former uk national security adviser. lindy li, first of all, just to this question of what you think donald trump will actually do. we have had this rhetoric about him ending the war in a day, but what will he really do on the war in ukraine when he gets to the white house?— to the white house? thank you so much for— to the white house? thank you so much for having _ to the white house? thank you so much for having me. - to the white house? thank you so much for having me. i- to the white house? thank you so much for having me. i think| so much for having me. i think the biden administration is telegraphing what trump will do by trump proofing the policy, helping ukraine as much as humanly possible before the next administration comes in. ukraine and zelensky are terrified that trump would be fine with ukraine never recovering crimea, even though ukrainians are hell—bent on
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trying to get that piece of territory back. trump, i think zelensky is afraid that trump is willing to throw them to their wills. trump is favourable of putin, so right now biden is very nervous this is going to unravel, matters why saw zelensky come to the united states not long ago in order to shore up support not just with the oval office but also congressional allies to ensure this is a truly bipartisan issue. i am not a huge fan of mitch mcconnell per se, but much to his credit, the republican senate leader has been very forceful on this issue, and also has been aligned with the biden administration and making sure we protect our ally, ukraine. peter ricketts, good to have you with us too. what is your analysis. you think the reality of a trump white house might be a bit different from the
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rhetoric we have heard? i think the first thing _ rhetoric we have heard? i think the first thing we _ rhetoric we have heard? i think the first thing we have - rhetoric we have heard? i think the first thing we have to - the first thing we have to remember about the first thing we have to rememberabout trump is the first thing we have to remember about trump is that he is unpredictable, so nobody quite — is unpredictable, so nobody quite knows what he will do. you — quite knows what he will do. you refer_ quite knows what he will do. you refer to his boastful claim that _ you refer to his boastful claim that he — you refer to his boastful claim that he can settle the war in a day, _ that he can settle the war in a day, but — that he can settle the war in a day, but of— that he can settle the war in a day, but of course it is much more — day, but of course it is much more difficult than matt. i think— more difficult than matt. i think the important thing for the european allies is to convince donald trump that of course — convince donald trump that of course the war will end at some point _ course the war will end at some point he — course the war will end at some point. he prides himself on being — point. he prides himself on being someone who ends worse, but it— being someone who ends worse, but it matters vitally how it ends — but it matters vitally how it ends to _ but it matters vitally how it ends. to try and impose a settlement over the heads of the ukrainian people, who have been _ the ukrainian people, who have been fighting and dying in the bravest — been fighting and dying in the bravest possible way for the last 25— bravest possible way for the last 2.5 years, that would be catastrophic for america's reputation as an ally. and it is possible to sell that point to donald trump. nato has also been _ to donald trump. nato has also been increasing defence spending, all european allies have — spending, all european allies have been increasing defence spending, partly as a result of the pressure he put on six or seveh— the pressure he put on six or seven years ago. there is a story— seven years ago. there is a story to _ seven years ago. there is a story to be told about america's allies doing a better
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'ob america's allies doing a better job of— america's allies doing a better job of taking the strain of their— job of taking the strain of their own security, but it is america's_ their own security, but it is america's interest to have allies— america's interest to have allies in— america's interest to have allies in europe and not to sell— allies in europe and not to sell out _ allies in europe and not to sell out ukraine after what they — sell out ukraine after what they have been through in the last 25— they have been through in the last 2.5 years.— last 2.5 years. lindy li, this is notjust _ last 2.5 years. lindy li, this is notjust a _ last 2.5 years. lindy li, this is notjust a question - last 2.5 years. lindy li, this is notjust a question about| is notjust a question about what happens to ukraine, it is, as peter was alluding to, what happens to nato and america's relationship with europe, with the european union. how do you see all of that playing out under a trump white house? regardless of how someone sees the biden administration, you have to give them credit for doing everything they can to shore up our western alliances, to make sure we maintain our special relationship with the united kingdom and also nato. nato hasn't been so unified since the cold war, how much is in large part to present biden, antony blinken and jake sullivan. they have worked tirelessly to ensure we stay united notjust with the european countries, but also south korea and japan. they did
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a lot of leg work on that. as my fellow guest says, i hope that trump sees the wisdom in maintaining these alliances, but given what he has done in the past, i'm not fully confident that he will value nato as much as his predecessor. i hope to god he realises that isolation won't serve anybody, and that america does have a role to play. you don't have to get involved in every issue, but ukraine is certainly something that we need to pay close attention to, because do you know who is watching? china. china is going to see how we handle ukraine, and that will be their posture towards taiwan.— and that will be their posture towards taiwan. peter ricketts, i want to talk _ towards taiwan. peter ricketts, i want to talk to _ towards taiwan. peter ricketts, i want to talk to you _ towards taiwan. peter ricketts, i want to talk to you as - towards taiwan. peter ricketts, i want to talk to you as a - i want to talk to you as a former british ambassador to paris, because what we saw today was quite extraordinary, wasn't it, in terms of keir starmer, the british prime minister in paris on armistice day with the french president emmanuel macron stop the first time since 191m and winston
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churchill was there. what does that say, do you think, about the relationship between britain and france under these two readers?— two readers? this was a visit with heavy — two readers? this was a visit with heavy symbolism. - two readers? this was a visit - with heavy symbolism. conscious references — with heavy symbolism. conscious references back to the iconic visit — references back to the iconic visit lry— references back to the iconic visit by winston churchill to the remembrance day commemoration on the 11th of november 1940 four, three months _ november 1940 four, three months after the liberation of paris. — months after the liberation of paris, when they fearlessly paraded down the sum the lycee with a _ paraded down the sum the lycee with a million people on the route — with a million people on the route -- _ with a million people on the route. —— famously paraded dowry — route. —— famously paraded down. they couldn't take keir starmer— down. they couldn't take keir starmer down the foot of the champs— starmer down the foot of the champs d'elysee, but they followed the steps of churchill and the — followed the steps of churchill and the goal, they went down the champs d'elysee, elgar was playing. — the champs d'elysee, elgar was playing, they sang the national anthem, — playing, they sang the national anthem, it was a very moving
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gesture — anthem, it was a very moving gesture by emmanuel macron to underline — gesture by emmanuel macron to underline the vitality and depth _ underline the vitality and depth of the relationship between the uk and france, on this day— between the uk and france, on this day of— between the uk and france, on this day of all days, given how many— this day of all days, given how many british soldiers never came — many british soldiers never came back from france, lie in the cemeteries all around france _ the cemeteries all around france. this was a powerful statement that britain and france, _ statement that britain and france, still europe's to major military— france, still europe's to major military allies, or shoulder to shoulder— military allies, or shoulder to shoulder when it comes to continued support for ukraine. is continued support for ukraine. is that — continued support for ukraine. is that almost more important than ever given the doubts and questions about how much support an american presidency under donald trump will give to ukraine, given that britain and france and other european countries need to work harder if they are going to support ukraine? ah, if they are going to support ukraine? . , , ,, ., ukraine? a business meeting a secial ukraine? a business meeting a special importance, _ ukraine? a business meeting a special importance, coming - ukraine? a business meeting a special importance, coming a l special importance, coming a few days _ special importance, coming a few days after the election of donald — few days after the election of donald trump. of course it is true — donald trump. of course it is true that— donald trump. of course it is true that no european countries can substitute if donald trump decided — can substitute if donald trump decided to cut the entirety of american military support
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ukraine _ american military support ukraine. the europeans have done — ukraine. the europeans have done rather better over the last— done rather better over the last year— done rather better over the last year or two in economic support— last year or two in economic support ukraine, and are slowly rampihg — support ukraine, and are slowly ramping up their production of the munitions and missiles, increasing their defence spending. it is vital that britain _ spending. it is vital that britain and france should give leadership on the european side of nato, — leadership on the european side of nato, whatever donald trump decides — of nato, whatever donald trump decides to do, so i think the meeting _ decides to do, so i think the meeting was actually very well time _ meeting was actually very well time to— meeting was actually very well time to talk about ukraine. of course — time to talk about ukraine. of course also to talk about the war that _ course also to talk about the war that continues in gaza, against _ war that continues in gaza, against the background of that deep, — against the background of that deep, deep symbolism of the 11th deep, deep symbolism of the iith of— deep, deep symbolism of the 11th of november and the references back to 1944. lord ricketts and _ references back to 1944. lord ricketts and lindy _ references back to 1944. lord ricketts and lindy li, - references back to 1944. lord ricketts and lindy li, thank. ricketts and lindy li, thank you very much, plenty more to come from both of you. in the meantime, let me tell you about this. donald trump has made three more key appointments ahead of his return to the white house in
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january. tom homan will serve as trump's "border tsar", having previously been the returning president's acting director of immigration and customs enforcement. new york congresswoman elise stefanik, has also been made ambassador to the united nations. and, in the last hour, president trump has named lee zeldin to run the environmental protection agency. in a statement the president elect said mr zeldin — a former republican congressman — would work to "to unleash the power of american businesses while maintaining the highest environmental standards". meanwhile, mrtrump's republican party are edging closer to full control of the us congress. they already have a majority in the senate and need to win just a handful of seats to take the house of representatives. our correspondentjessica parker is following the latest from near mar—a—lago in west palm beach florida. as you say, some figures returning from the prior administration, trump mach one.
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people like stephen miller, who is going to be his deputy chief of staff role in the white house, he was there back in the first trump administration, very much involved with hard—line immigration policies. he looks set to be very much involved in that again, any policy based role. the borders are as you mentioned, tom homan, who again was also involved in immigration issues involved in immigration issues in the first trump administration. i think loyalty being rewarded, and it is interesting as well to see these appointments today, this big emphasis on delivering, i think, what donald trump talks about a that campaign. jessica parker in florida. back to lindy li and maude peter ricketts. lindy, what is your analysis of these appointments we have had so far. the message seems to be firstly that
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immigration is absolutely central to the trump presidency, and so is loyalty, and people who will not push back against him. absolutely. that is a really _ back against him. absolutely. that is a really good - back against him. absolutely. that is a really good point. it| that is a really good point. it shows that the people who stuck their necks out for him, even during the republican primary, durin
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