you're watching the context on bbc news. translation: today there was a new russian missile. i it is obvious that putin is using ukraine as a testing ground. translation: combat testing | for the oreshnik missile system is being conducted by us in response to aggressive actions of nato countries against russia. he said that russia believes it has the right to use its weapons against military installations of those countries that allow ukraine to use their weapons against russian facilities. the uk's support for ukraine is always for self—defence. it is proportionate, coordinated and agile. joining me tonight are former british army officer and military analystjustin crump and ian bremmer — political scientist and author and the founder and president of the eurasia group.

we have exactly the right panel for you this evening with all the stories we are considering, but first let me bring you the latest bbc news. president putin has said russia hit the ukrainian city of dnipro with a new, conventional intermediate—range ballistic missile. he described the strike as a "test" and said it was in response to the use of american and british long—range weaponry against russia. the international criminal court has issued arrest warrants for israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu and for his former defence minister, yoav gallant. the court has also issued a warrant for the hamas commander mohammed deif, although israel's military has said he has been killed. the iccjudges say the three men bear criminal responsibility for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, including murder, persecution and other inhumane acts. matt gaetz, the man nominated by donald trump to be

his attorney general, says he's now withdrawing from consideration. mr gaetz was a controversial pick. he was investigated for sex trafficking — though no charges were brought — and there have been allegations of drug misuse, which he has denied. brazil's federal police have formally accused ex—president jair bolsonaro of his role in an alleged coup attempt after he lost the 2022 presidential elections. 36 other people were also accused, including bolsonaro's formerjustice and defence ministers and the country's former head of the navy. if you arejustjoining us, welcome to the programme. the russian president vladimir putin said an attack in central ukraine this morning was carried out with a "new conventional intermediate range" missile. it is codenamed oreshnik. there were significant explosions overnight at an industrial plant in dnipro. eyewitnesses said there was a distinctly abnormal sound, compared to the usual bombardment. and it appeared to involve multiple projectiles. military experts had suggested

it could be a new experimental type of weapon. confirmed tonight by vladimir putin. the missile, he said, travels at a speed of mach 10 — that's nearly 3 km per second. the russian president said his forces reserve the right to hit states whose long—range weapons ukraine is using inside russia. that might explain why western embassies were closed yesterday in kyiv. there was intelligence that russia was about to test these new fast missiles, capable of bypassing ukrainian air defences. president zelensky has described the missile strike as a "severe escalation in the scale and brutality "of the war". clearly, the kremlin wanted to send a message. and they wanted putin to deliver it. in fact, bizarrely, the spokeswoman for the russian foreign ministry took a call this morning, in the middle of her briefing, in which she was instructed not to answer any questions about "ballistic missiles".

speaking russian. hello. speaking russian. real all stunted? real all stunted 7 i real all stunted? i will let you judge. earlier in the day, sir keir starmer told the house of commons that in spite of this intimidation, the uk would continue to support ukraine's right to self—defence. uk's support for ukraine is always full self defence. is always for self—defence. it is proportionate, coordinated and agile and a response to russia's own actions. and it is in accordance with international law. under article 51 of the un charter, ukraine has a clear right of self—defence against russia's illegal attacks.

justin, let me start with you. what do you see in these images we have had from the dnipro, when you put that alongside the statement we have had issued from president putin tonight? certainly i think along with the initial ukrainian response and ukraine has been castigated from some borders by saying it is an intercontinental ballistic missile, which they whole magnitude larger in terms of range, threat and scariness all round, not least because these weapons deliver nuclear warheads, so that was a fairly alarming thing to wake up to in washington, dc this morning. i think a small sense of relief that this was a new system, it was conventional, though not a nuclear system. clearly it was intended to convey the message that russia has more than in its arsenal, but russia can do more, it will respond with a mission cycle, it is not out of

options. and of course for russia an important thing to present the idea that they are still a mighty power, that they have never fully committed to the air force to ukraine, they have been very restrained, calling it a special military operation, implying they could do more if they wish to end thatis do more if they wish to end that is part of the message they have pushed out a lot, the other part being that they have very high end capabilities within their weapons manufacture which they would like to present. we know they have had many problems building as many of these weapons as they would like and a bit of a paper tiger in some of the systems they have got, but they are showing that actually some of these weapons are real and more deadly weapons can be used, but this remains a one off use of this weapon so far and i doubt, that they can sustain the use of something like this, so it is mainly virtue signalling that they have options. as you said, the embassy closed in kyiv yesterday, public concerns about a new system being used and obviously that has manifested in striking to

dnipro. so these are things we are chasing around it, escalate re—... it will have been a nuclear caterer that still falls short of that, but it still plays into the rhetoric that they are pressuring the westway. i think the kremlin sees this as a very important time to keep the pressure on, in the last months of the biden administration ahead of the donald trump administration coming in. i donald trump administration coming in-— coming in. i think we are, though. _ coming in. i think we are, though. and _ coming in. i think we are, though, and we _ coming in. i think we are, though, and we have - coming in. i think we are, | though, and we have seen coming in. i think we are, i though, and we have seen it clearly this week, in a pattern of reciprocated escalation. we have a new weapon, a russian president who says tonight, a regional conflict has now acquired elements of the global nature. and the question really does come back to this issue of what his real intent is.- what his real intent is. well, what his real intent is. well, why hasn't — what his real intent is. well, why hasn't he _ what his real intent is. well, why hasn't he done - what his real intent is. well, why hasn't he done this - what his real intent is. well, why hasn't he done this over the last— why hasn't he done this over the last year? especially because now russia is actually taking — because now russia is actually taking more territory, they are succeeding in turning back the ukrainians in kursk, inside russia, _ ukrainians in kursk, inside russia, and they are succeeding in breaking ukrainian defences in breaking ukrainian defences in south—east ukraine. so why

are they— in south—east ukraine. so why are they doing this now? the answer— are they doing this now? the answer is _ are they doing this now? the answer is because they expect a very big — answer is because they expect a very big change in the diplomacy around the war as soon — diplomacy around the war as soon as_ diplomacy around the war as soon as donald trump becomes president — soon as donald trump becomes president. so zelensky now saying. _ president. so zelensky now saying, yes, the war is pmperly— saying, yes, the war is properly going to be over in short— properly going to be over in short order because of the policies _ short order because of the policies of president—elect trump _ policies of president—elect trump. well, if you are putin, you _ trump. well, if you are putin, you want— trump. well, if you are putin, you want to _ trump. well, if you are putin, you want to lend to that, you want — you want to lend to that, you want to — you want to lend to that, you want to show the americans that they are — want to show the americans that they are risking world war iii with— they are risking world war iii with the _ they are risking world war iii with the wrong—headed and dangerous policies that are under— dangerous policies that are under president biden. you want to show— under president biden. you want to show the europeans that it is a very— to show the europeans that it is a very bad idea for you to continue _ is a very bad idea for you to continue leaning into this war with— continue leaning into this war with ukraine against russia. much— with ukraine against russia. much smarter if you call me up, engage — much smarter if you call me up, engage with me, you know, don't support— engage with me, you know, don't support these attackers coming into russia. and we have seen that— into russia. and we have seen that bearing fruit with the hungarians, the slovaks, the italians, _ hungarians, the slovaks, the italians, the germans. so i think— italians, the germans. so i think that diplomatically what we are — think that diplomatically what we are seeing today is largely

performative, but the timing is very— performative, but the timing is very meaningful and that is what — very meaningful and that is what putin is doing. he is right— what putin is doing. he is right now in a much better position— right now in a much better position than zelensky. does it demand, though, _ position than zelensky. does it demand, though, ian, - position than zelensky. does it demand, though, ian, a - position than zelensky. does it | demand, though, ian, a refocus on what comes the other side of this this? because i think the concern would be in europe that we have been through this process before in crimea, we had an unsatisfactory piece, he came again. we havejust had an unsatisfactory piece, he came again. we have just seen an example of the development that there is in russia. we know it is a wartime economy, we showed on the programme last night five sites where they are expanding their rocket development. is he going away, just so he can come back again? and how does that shift the thinking in europe about what we spend on defence?- thinking in europe about what we spend on defence? well, you are right. _ we spend on defence? well, you are right. it— we spend on defence? well, you are right, it should _ we spend on defence? well, you are right, it should shift - we spend on defence? well, you are right, it should shift the - are right, it should shift the thinking _ are right, it should shift the thinking in europe, precisely because _ thinking in europe, precisely because the united states is not likely to be willing to commit _ not likely to be willing to commit to nato membership for ukraine — commit to nato membership for ukraine. not likely to commit to guaranteed security for

ukraine _ to guaranteed security for ukraine. so if you care about it in— ukraine. so if you care about it in europe, and the polish government certainly does, the baltic— government certainly does, the baltic stew and the nordics do and apparently the french and the brits— and apparently the french and the brits as well, then you need — the brits as well, then you need to— the brits as well, then you need to make sure that the ukrainians have the capacity to not trust — ukrainians have the capacity to not trust defend themselves, but to— not trust defend themselves, but to deter russia after a ceasefire from coming back in a year— ceasefire from coming back in a year or— ceasefire from coming back in a year or three to take big bites of ukraine and also to potentially take bigger bites even — potentially take bigger bites even in _ potentially take bigger bites even in the baltic states because they are not sure the americans would stand up for those — americans would stand up for those countries that donald trump _ those countries that donald trump won't find unless you point — trump won't find unless you point them out on a map. so yes, — point them out on a map. so yes, there _ point them out on a map. so yes, there is a lot more pressure _ yes, there is a lot more pressure on europe. some of that— pressure on europe. some of that is— pressure on europe. some of that is coming from russia, some — that is coming from russia, some of— that is coming from russia, some of that is coming from the incoming — some of that is coming from the incoming american administration. �* , , administration. and yet, 'ust in, we administration. and yet, 'ust in. we have i administration. and yet, 'ust in, we have spoken * administration. and yet, 'ust in, we have spoken to h administration. and yet, just in, we have spoken to the i in, we have spoken to the french ambassador who is heading off to moscow, who sits at the un and the moment and he said, that is a conversation we need to have in the new year. we don't think americans will

leave the ukrainians in the lurch. and itjust feels, from the conversations we have had this week, that europe isn't there yet about what being a war economy really entails. yesterday we had an announcement from the defence secretary here that we are phasing out, albeit old, outdated weaponry. but we are if we are in a war setting, surely even old outdated weaponry is the sort of stuff that we should be retaining? i mean, i think the issue around that equipment is the fact that ultimately it was stuff that we couldn't use, we were not likely to use that it did cost us to do it, but it is very bad signalling. also there is a huge loss of capability. very bad signalling at a time when we have been chatting open the programme over the last couple of years, the escalating feeling we have a thread and crisis in the world and things that were unthinkable much closer now, although ian would probably agree, he has talked about this as i have over many years, but we would talk in rooms and listen and nod and it was a very theoretical, but now

these things are very real. i think that legacy of not wanting to confront difficult decisions, particularly during a time of the year of affluence and peace we had threatened, taking a step back and the necessity of spending more on defence is a difficult decision, difficult policies to accept. in europe in particular, head of the russian invasion, there was a real reluctance to acknowledge this happening and the head of the intelligence services went to kyiv just intelligence services went to kyivjust before the russians invaded and had to be evacuated and that misunderstanding russia has left a legacy of division. of course, we are seeing this in the political developments inside europe, in russian support for parties both on the extreme left and the right wing, sowing division, sowing uncertainty and sowing fear and this feeling of course of inevitability of nuclear conflict if this continues, which i think it is very unlikely, it is fair to say. but the mere little blue likelihood of nuclear war scares politicians more than anything else at this point scares politicians