donald trump is preparing to return to the white house, facing a far more unsettled world than during his first term. he'll inherit two major conflicts, as war rages in ukraine and across the middle east. as he assembles his cabinet, we'll look at how mr trump might react to global challenges and tensions when he gets back behind this desk. hello, i'm carl nasman. weclome to this bbc special report on donald trump's foreign policy agenda as he prepares to take office for his second term. in less than two months, us presidentjoe biden�*s time in office will officially wrap up and donald trump will once again become commander in chief. beyond his domestic agenda, trump's second term in the white house could signal a major shift in washington's stance towards the rest of the globe. it's a very different world now to the one he faced on day one in 2017, with conflict and growing tension

in multiple regions. we're now more than 1,000 days into the war in ukraine. since russia's full—scale invasion, more than 100,000 fighters from both sides have reportedly been killed. and it's a conflict that continues to escalate, with warnings it could spread further. and in the middle east, israel continues fighting on multiple fronts after the 7 october attacks by hamas, which killed some 1,200 people and saw more than 250 hostages seized. more than 114,000 people have been killed in gaza since the war there began according to the hamas—run health ministry there. israeli pm benjamin netanyahu has vowed to continue the fighting until hamas is destroyed. and strikes continue to hit lebanon as israel tries to push back hezbollah. it's a conflict that has escalated already—fraught tensions across the middle east, with iran also becoming involved and threats from other groups in the region. donald trump has been highly critical of the biden administration's response to both of these global conflicts and its wider foreign

policy, including its handling of china and latin america. so when he returns here to the white house on 20 january, how will donald trump deal with the international challenges that will be waiting? well, over the past several days mr trump has been selecting the senior staff and cabinet members who will help shape his policies. his choices to lead the diplomatic and military departments of government will be key, and could mean a big shift away from the past four years. marco rubio, the republican senatorfrom florida and a former trump foe, is tapped to head up the department of state. he is known to take a hardline stance on china and iran. and pete hegseth is the president—elect�*s choice to lead the defense department. the fox news host has been hampered by a sexual misconduct allegation, which he denies. if confirmed by the senate, the military veteran will arrive at the pentagon amid wars in ukraine and the middle east.

barbara starr, a former pentagon correspondent who is now with usc's annenberg center, joined me to discuss the next administration. during his first term, trump initially stacked his administration, didn't he, with former generals. this time, we're learning it's mostly loyalists. how you think that will shape the way donald trump will be operating on the world stage for a second time now? well, the answer is, of course, none of us really know. but i think the challenge that one has to look at is the unexpected, because every president, every secretary of defence, they all come into office with set ideas about what they want to do, what their agenda is, and then reality and the world intervenes. world events intervene. and of course, as you point out, carl, we've just seen that in the last couple of years, beginning with russia's invasion of ukraine and the israeli war in gaza

and in lebanon as a result of the 7 october attacks by hamas. so mr trump comes in having to deal with both of those. he thinks he knows what he wants to do. he says he wants to end these conflicts, but easier said than done. you know, vladimir putin still has plenty of ideas about the way ahead that he sees, and it may be very different — and it probably is very different — than donald trump's. and helping him to make these decisions and react to the surprises that are sure to come on in the next four years will be some unconventional picks, you'd have to say, for cabinet, including the fox news host pete hegseth for secretary of defence. does it seem, given his relative lack of experience, that he might be somebody able to handle that surprise that could come over the next administration? well, you know, that's a really interesting question, because i think typically

we see a secretary of defence work in partnership with a secretary of state, and senator marco rubio clearly has a great deal of more senior—level experience in these matters. pete hegseth served in the us army — respect to his military service, of course — but at a relatively local level, leading a very small group of soldiers. now he moves into the pentagon, a behemoth — 3 million troops, hundreds of thousands of civilian officials, a defence budget of close to $1 trillion a year. it couldn't be more complicated just to run the pentagon and make these decisions day by day, and place that against this international backdrop. he will have to rely on key advisors within his staff, within the pentagon, and he's going to need military people. they may want to fire the admirals and the generals. trump has talked about this.

but he's going to need people who can look him in the eye and say here's the problem, here's what you may want to think about, but here's the challenge. if you go down this road, here's what could happen. he's going to have to have people who can look him in the eye and give him the bad news. and i think at the same time, as we saw in the first trump administration, donald trump himself is kind of the wildcard. he mightjust make a decision without any input from his cabinet, and another wildcard could be his relationship with vladimir putin. we know he has had several different phone calls since leaving office with the president of russia. how do you think all that might play out, as of course there is still this conflict raging in ukraine? well, i think most people at the pentagon, senior military officials, senior defence officials, if they are able to stay, if he doesn't clean house and fire all of them, they're going to be very cautious about putin, as is the state department.

putin has no track record of telling the truth. there's just no other way to say it. he often does exactly what he means to do. it's not clear anybody looks him in the eye and gives him the bad news. we just saw this past week this so—called experimental longer—range — we don't really know how long—range — intermediate—range experimental ballistic missile that the russians fired against targets in ukraine. we see them answering the challenge of ukraine. we see them making progress, at the very time in the final weeks of the biden administration that they're trying to up the ante, giving the ukrainians anti—personnel mines, giving them the ability to use longer—range weapons to strike inside russia. mr putin is now already striking back with this experimental weapon. now that he's done that,

is he really going to back off? what would a negotiation look like? what territory in ukraine does russia want to walk away with? let's turn now to the conflict in ukraine. russian president vladimir putin says his country has a stock of powerful new weapons ready to be used, a day after moscow fired a new ballistic missile at targets in ukraine. president putin said the 0reshnik hypersonic missiles flew at ten times the speed of sound, and ordered them to be put into production. thursday's strikes on dnipro was described as unusual by eyewitnesses and triggered explosions which went on for three hours. it all comesjust days after ukraine fired american and british long—range missiles into russia for the first time. polish prime minister donald tusk has said the war is entering a decisive stage, with a real risk of global conflict. so how might donald trump respond when he takes office? the former secretary general of natojens stoltenberg stepped down from the role just last month. he worked with donald trump during his first term as president, and he spoke to the bbc�*s ukrainecast about a second trump

administration. i expect also the new us administration to support ukraine, because it is in the security interest of the united states to ensure that president putin doesn't win in ukraine. and last time i worked with him, back in — the first time he was president, you have to remember that at that time, after russia had annexed crimea and actually gone into the eastern donbas, the line, the policy from nato allies, including the united states, was not to deliver aid, not to deliver weapons to ukraine. it was president trump that change that policy and started to deliver weapons to ukraine, including the javelins, the anti—tank weapons that proved so decisive, so important, especially at the beginning of the war. and people forget that, don't they? yeah, so i cannot promise or predict exactly what will happen, but last time the trump

administration stepped the support for ukraine. until then, many allies were a bit afraid that delivering weapons to ukraine was too provocative to russia, and that we needed to, in a way, try to prevent russia from being provoked and then going further. i think the reality is that if we had given more weapons to ukraine earlier, we may have even prevented the full—scale invasion. the president—elect�*s stance towards nato and the war in ukraine has drawn concern from some western leaders. the military alliance that includes european powers like the uk, germany and france is an institution that trump has long criticised. he has accused members of failing to pay their fair share on defense spending and has argued that the us shoulders the burden with its contributions. his pick to lead the us mission to nato, matthew whitaker, has a legal rather than foreign policy background. he previously worked in the department ofjustice under trump. if confirmed, whitaker will assume the position as the alliance continues to grapple with how to support ukraine in its war

against russia. trump has claimed that he could end the conflict in just one day, without revealing details as to how. it's a promise that has sparked some concern amongst some western allies, who worry that a deal may lead ukraine to cede territory to russia. i got more on what trump's election might mean for the alliance with kay bailey hutchison, a former us ambassador to nato. as you're sitting here tonight, how do you think nato allies are feeling right now about a second trump administration? well, of course, i think the european allies know what president trump did in the first administration. they've been watching the election very carefully, and i think that the europeans will be able to work with president trump as an ally. i think they have now begun to see how he communicates, and they've also stepped up to do the things that he's asked them to do, which is increase their own defence

spending so that we are a true alliance. that is for our total security umbrella — canada and america and across the atlantic. we heard there the former nato secretary general, stoltenberg — a bit optimistic about a second trump administration, but he has been pretty sceptical. we know thatjd vance, the vice president—elect, doesn't really want to send more military aid to ukraine. how do you think donald trump might approach this? i think that secretary general stoltenberg worked closely with president trump and knows that he has never followed through on some of the things that he said early on that did not happen, that scared people. but he stuck with his message, which is europeans need to do more, and they have done that.

and i think they will work with him. but beyond just that messaging — pardon the interruption, but didn't he say something along the lines of, if nato members don't pay their fair share, i would tell russia they could do whatever the heck they wanted? he said that — yes, he did. but i think that is his way of saying i'm serious and we need more buy—in from europe. and i think europe is doing that, and i think they've shown that in this ukraine invasion by russia. i think europe has strengthened. i think nato has strengthened. i think putin is the loser here, and he is going to be the loser, because we're going to have a united and stronger nato than we have had since nato began. i wanted to take the chance to ask you about donald trump's pick to be the next us ambassador to nato, matt whitaker.

some see this potentially as an unusual pick. he doesn't have much foreign policy or national security experience. how do you view that pick, and how do you think he might be received in the world stage? i think the important thing for a nato ambassador is that the president trusts that person and that the president will listen to what is being said and done at nato and make recommendations that will be respected, and i think matt whitaker fulfils that role. i think the president does think highly of him. he served in a very tenuous position, and he came through very well, in the first administration. and i think that he's a bright person, and i think he's someone who our allies will like and relate to, and especially they will like that he has a direct line to president trump. yes, some nice words there from a former us

ambassador to nato to potentially the future one. i am sure you'll remember, but at the last nato summit, we saw in washington, dc, president biden really touting the ways that the alliance got stronger on his watch. two new members, sweden and finland. what do you make of the legacy thatjoe biden leaves behind? do you think it's one that donald trump might try to undo, in part? well, i think that president biden certainly has always said that we have a great alliance and we have great allies. but i think that the disastrous withdrawal from afghanistan was something that hurt the image that america would be strong and keep their commitments. and i think that the allies wanted to stay in afghanistan. it was keeping the tensions down. it was a very delicate balance, but it was working, and i think

that also will be on the record with regard to nato. i think there is good and bad there. i think the nato allies know that president biden wanted to do the right thing, but the withdrawal from afghanistan has really damaged our reputation as being a reliable ally, and i think that president trump has a chance to repair all of that and bring the coalition even closer and make it stronger. let's look now towards the conflict in the middle east. the british government has indicated that israel's prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, could face arrest if he travels to the uk. it comes after the international criminal court issued an arrest warrant for mr netanyahu over alleged war crimes in gaza. a government spokesperson refused to comment directly on the case but said the uk will fulfil its legal obligations. benjamin netanyahu was accused of commiting war crimes in gaza, something he has denied, and he has accused

the icc of bias and antisemitism. meanwhile, israel's military campaign continues in lebanon. there are reports in the last half—hour or so of several loud explosions in beirut. this is the scene there live. reuters news agency is quoting the lebanese state news agency saying an eight—storey building was hit with fives missiles in the central basta area of beirut. that's all the detail we have at the moment from those reports, but we'll bring you more as we get it. a few hours ago this strike hit the city's southern suburbs, shortly after the israeli military issued evacuation warnings in the area. the lebanese health ministry says that at least 52 people, including women and children, were killed in israeli airstrikes across the country on thursday. despite ongoing negotiations around a potential ceasefire. 0ur security correspondent frank gardner has the latest from jerusalem. there are really kind of two

stories going on here at the moment. one is the visit of amos hochstein, who is the us presidential envoy trying to sort out a lebanese ceasefire. the sticking point is on the future status of hezbollah and freedom of movement for israel. israel's aim in trying to calm down the border there is to push hezbollah�*s forces — well, first of all to dismantle their entire infrastructure of rockets, and stockpiling weapons close to their border so that their residents can return. they've got roughly 70,000 residents of northern galilee, right up close to the lebanese border, who are currently living in hotels and on people's sofas because it is too dangerous with all the rocket fire for them to go back to their homes and farms and businesses there. so israel says they're determined to eliminate that danger and push them north,

and they don't want to see hezbollah creeping back into the area close to the border. but getting this written into the agreement is what israel would like, is to have it written in that israel reserves the right to go back in. and that is not something that is acceptable either to hezbollah or to the lebanese government, so they are still trying to thrash this out. we've heard very little from amos hochstein, the presidential envoy, since he has been here in jerusalem. the other story that's doing the rounds here is about settlers. so you've got the west bank, which is adjacent to israel but which is claimed by settlers, people who are basically building properties on land that is supposed to be the future palestinian state. and there has been an announcement here from the israeli government that they're no longer going to detain settlers

accused of various violations in that territory, because they're saying these settlers are facing armed groups and acts of terrorism backed by iran. and at the same time, israel is fighting a war on several fronts. so this has caused some alarm amongst palestinians, because they're saying, well, that just gives the settlers free rein to do what they want, and there are some pretty bad things going on, on both sides. but the settlers — many of them are determined to try and push out the palestinians, burning their cars, burning their olive groves, essentially terrorising them. and this is something that has been condemned by both the us and britain, who have in some cases brought sanctions on certain settler groups. trump has also promised to bring peace to the middle east, but has not said how. during his first term he brokered the abraham accords, a historic deal that normalised relations betwen israel and several arab and muslim countries. he also named jerusalem as the country's capital and moved the us embassy there. trump's pro—israel policies have forged a strong relationship with israeli

pm benjamin netanyahu, prompting this praise from the pm in 2020. frankly, mr president, given all that you have already done for israel, i'm not surprised. you have been the greatest friend that israel has ever had in the white house. applause two trump nominations may shed light to how he'll approach relations with the middle east in his next administration. he tapped former arkansas governor mike huckabee to be us ambassador to israel. huckabee has supported the israeli government's ambitions to expand into territories that would form part of any future palestinian state. trump has also named long—time friend steve witkoff to serve as a special envoy for middle east peace. the real estate developer has previously praised trump's dealings with israel. gabriel noronha is a fellow with thejewish institute for national security of america. he told me about trump's

outlook towards the middle east. let's just start with this claim here from donald trump that he could end this war on day one. how do you view that claim, and what you think that says about the way he is going to approach what really is becoming a very complicated region? well, peace is a process, and peace is going to start on day one. again, the middle east is a complicated place. it takes a long time to get a final deal, and every deal can go in different directions. but what i'm pretty confident in is there's going to be a new paradigm, a new set of foreign policies, that won't reward terror and that will create incentive structures for all the parties to come to a deal, to have a settlement, and then ultimately to try to rebuild the area. there's not a lot of obsession with the old way of doing things, obsession with saying things have to have certain names.

and that's going to unlock, i think, a lot of things that are going to contribute to both peace between israel and gaza and lebanon, as well as unlocking the arab partners to hopefully come and assist with reconstruction and a more stable future out there in the region. yeah, and i think, just building on what you said, there is some fear among palestinians in particular about some of the moves that donald trump made in his first term, particularly the way he handled moving the us embassy tojerusalem, his policy on the golan heights. so when you talk about rebuilding the area, when you talk about names, which obviously are very important in that region, is there a concern that that could have the same effect on the palestinians? well, certainly if you believe that the last 30 years have been a success for the palestinian people, then yes, you should want to have the status quo remain the same. i don't believe that the last 30 years have generally been a success for the palestinians. i don't think the status

quo is great for them. ithink, again, that obsession with "hey, we have to accord to every single palestinian demand" has gotten the palestinians nothing. it hasn't gotten peace any closer. in fact, it has sort of enabled their idea that if they hold outjust a little bit longer, maybe they can get this perfect deal that gets them all of the israeli territory. that's nonsense, and i think changing that in their minds will hopefully get them to a better place. ijust wanted to get to donald trump's relationship with neta nyahu. we obviously had that effusive praise, but we know that it has been a bit rockier than that between the two. how do you think that relationship will play out? we've seenjoe biden have not a lot of leverage over the prime minister. do you think donald trump will have a bit more? so certainly a bit of a rocky relationship in 2021 as president trump was leaving office. i think they've spent a lot of time, the president

and prime minister netanyahu, reaching out to out to trump to try to repair that relationship. they've talked a couple of times now for long periods. so i think they're going to have a pretty robust relationship. there's also been a lot of other israelis across government working to reform the relationship with the trump administration. so, yes, i think it's going to be a positive relationship. in terms of leverage, whether you're seeing this from mike huckabee or president trump, what you're going to see is less sort of demands and more "hey, can we work constructively together?", and an approach to what is best for both of us, trying to do reasons rather than leverage and pressure on the israeli government. stay with us here on bbc news. hello there.

storm bert is bringing wet and windy weather in from the atlantic and bringing with it a triple whammy of severe weather as we head into saturday. there'll be some heavy snow for a while across parts of northern england and scotland. it'll turn to rain, and with snow melt and a rapid thaw, together with some heavy rain elsewhere, there could be some flooding and it will also be very windy. the winds are picking up and temperatures are lifting overnight, but these are the temperatures by the morning. so it's still cold in scotland and northern england, and it's across these areas that we've got these amber weather warnings from the met office. snow in the morning across this part of northern england and southern scotland. some snow to low levels. blizzards and drifting over the hills, and the snow may last into the afternoon across this part of scotland, the southern highlands. there could be 30cm, even 40cm of snow. now, the snow levels are going to rise as we introduce milder air. so the snow turning to rain, and with wet weather elsewhere, there's the risk of some flooding with some heavier rain. not too much rain until later towards the south—east.

the rain should clear away from northern ireland in the afternoon, but it is going to be windy. widespread gales, severe gales and the strongest winds around coastal areas, particularly through the irish sea and into the north—west. gusts of 60—70 miles an hour, but it's a southerly wind this time, which is why temperatures are going to be lifting through the day. it's going to turn very mild in northern ireland, wales and the south—west in the afternoon, and temperatures further north and east are likely to rise as we head into the night. there's storm bert lingering to the north—west of the uk. we do have this weather front bringing some more rain overnight and into sunday. that'll be hanging around across this part of england and wales. could be heavy rain at times. closer to the storm, this is where we've got the strongest of the winds and the more frequent showers. but it will be windy everywhere, and the winds could be stronger running through the english channel as well. but again, it's going to be a mild day. this time the highest temperatures are going to be across eastern england — 15 or 16 degrees. even as we head into the beginning of next week,

storm bert is going to be there across parts of scotland, maybe weakening just a little, but still bringing some very windy weather for northern areas. gusts of 50 or 60 mph in scotland, even through the central lowlands. and we've got showers or longer spells of rain. as you move further south into england and wales, it's not going to be as windy. there'll be fewer showers and more sunshine around. temperatures perhaps not quite as high. top numbers around 12 celsius.

voice-over: this is bbc news.

we'll have the headlines for you at the top of the hour, which is straight after this programme. hello, i'm ros atkins. and i'm katie razzall. this week on the media show — what the boxing match betweenjake paul and mike tyson tells us about the future of the media. we're also going to talk about crosswords and puzzles, and how they've become a key business strategy for newspapers. and the rise of bluesky. it's the social media platform growing rapidly as some users quit elon musk�*s x. we'll ask where it goes next. that's all coming up on the media show. now, last week, mike tyson, a former heavyweight boxing champion who's aged 58, fought jake paul, a youtuber who's 27. the fight was funded and broadcast by netflix. it cost tens of millions of dollars, and netflix says it reached 60 million

households globally. this is no ordinary fight.