under the deal he reached today, effective at 4am tomorrow local time, the fighting across the lebanese israeli border will end. it can also help us to end the conflict in gaza. _ in particular, hamas will know that it can't count on - other fronts opening up in the war. - joining me tonight to discuss news in the middle east — retired israeli brigadier asif oreon, who served in the idf general staff and liaised with unifil and the lebanese army. —— david hale. and with me in the studio is benham ben taleblu, a senior iran analyst at the foundation for defence of democracies. some really good analysts with us tonight. we'll get into the situation in the middle east. first, the latest headlines. donald trump has threatened sweeping huge tariffs on the united state's biggest trading partners on his first day in office.

the president—elect promised a 25% tax on all products coming from canada and mexico, plus an extra 10% on chinese goods. all three nations have reacted to the pledge, with china warning that nobody wins in a trade war. the egyptian authorities say rescue teams have found five people alive after a tourist boat sank in the red sea on monday, after warnings about bad weather. however, four bodies were also recovered — which means that seven people who were on board the ship are still unaccounted for. around 60 british troops have been deployed to help defend three us air bases against drone activity in east anglia. severald drones have been spotted flying above —— several drones have been spotted flying above and near its bases over a three—day period last week. it's not clear who was responsible for the incursions, but there are concerns a state actor might be involved. here, the car company which owns vauxhall has announced plans to close its van—making plant at luton in an attempt to consolidate its electric vehicle production line. it comes as the uk is set to confirm it will consult

on relaxing rules designed to phase—out new petrol and diesel cars in a bid to increase electric car sales. if you'rejustjoining the programme, a warm welcome. it is an important night in the middle east. in the last hour, we have had announcements from president biden and president biden and from president macron from president macron endorsing a ceasefire agreement in lebanon, endorsing a ceasefire agreement in lebanon, which will take effect which will take effect at 10am tomorrow morning. at 10am tomorrow morning. the deal, which is set the deal, which is set to win the backing of to win the backing of the israeli cabinet, the israeli cabinet, will mean that over will mean that over the next 60 days the idf will the next 60 days the idf will begin to scale back its ground begin to scale back its ground operations in southern lebanon. operations in southern lebanon. but tonight, the prime but tonight, the prime minister benjamin netenyahu minister benjamin netenyahu warned that israel reserved warned that israel reserved the right to respond the right to respond should hezbollah fail to abide should hezbollah fail to abide by the terms set down by the terms set down our forces to refresh in the agreement. in the agreement. translation: so, why go translation: so, why go into a ceasefire now? - into a ceasefire now? - there are three main reasons. there are three main reasons. the first — focusing the first — focusing on the iranian threat, on the iranian threat, and i don't want to expand and i don't want to expand

on that. on that. the second — to allow the second — to allow our forces to refresh and to also allow our resources to be replenished. it is no secret that there have been some delays in the supply of ammunition and arms, and this delay is going to be removed.

with the regular lebanese army deploying in their place, alongside an existing un force that is already there, known as unifil. the contours of this agreement are not dissimilar to the deal agreed to end the war in 2006, under the un resolution 1701. you might recognise them. though since then, each side has complained that the other has not fully respected their obligations. the israelis are reassured that this time, an international committee will oversee enforcement, headed by the united states. let's hear from president biden. ijust spoke with the prime minister_ ijust spoke with the prime minister of israel and lebanon. i'm pleased to announce the government '5 have accepted our proposal— government '5 have accepted our proposal to end the devastating conflict — proposal to end the devastating conflict i— proposal to end the devastating conflict. i want to thank my president macron for his partnership in reaching this

moment. for nearly 14 months, a deadly— moment. for nearly 14 months, a deadly conflict raged across the border. the conflict that began — the border. the conflict that began the day after the october the 7th — began the day after the october the 7th attack by hamas and lsraeh — the 7th attack by hamas and israel. hours later, at two azmw — israel. hours later, at two a:m., hezbollah and other terrorist _ a:m., hezbollah and other terrorist organisations backed by iran, — terrorist organisations backed by iran, attacked israel in surrport_ by iran, attacked israel in support of hamas. let's be ctear— support of hamas. let's be clear - _ support of hamas. let's be clear — israel did not launch this war _ clear — israel did not launch this war. the lebanese people did not— this war. the lebanese people did not seek but war either. nor— did not seek but war either. nor did _ did not seek but war either. nor did the united states. with get an update before we go to the panel. let's go tojerusalem and speak to our security correspondent frank gardner. —— let's. not universal approval. a very fragile piece over the next few days. yeah, the security — over the next few days. yeah, the security cabinet, - over the next few days. yeah, the security cabinet, which - over the next few days. yeah, | the security cabinet, which was the security cabinet, which was

the first barrier, the first hurdle that the deal had to get through in israel approved it by 10—1. through in israel approved it byio—i. it through in israel approved it by 10—1. it was well known that the national security minister was opposed to it. he thinks it's a bad deal because israel hasn't finished off hezbollah, and his eyes, and this was an opportunity missed, historically, i think he caused it —— called it. it's a done deal now. it's past. it's going through, it's going to happen, it will come into force tomorrow. i think the difficult thing is going to be implementing it and stopping it being derailed because there is enormous mistrust on both sides here. many people in the north of israel fear that this will simply allow hezbollah to build up simply allow hezbollah to build up and regroup to attack them again. remember, it's not the first time the two sides have had a war. the last big one was 2006, which ended with hezbollah supposedly being held

north of the —— the litani river. the big test will be can the un and a bolster lebanese national army impose enough security and peace in tranquility south of lebanon to make sure that hezbollah doesn't come back and israel doesn't resume with air strikes. . ~ israel doesn't resume with air strikes. . ,, g strikes. frank in jerusalem, thank yom _ strikes. frank in jerusalem, thank you. let's _ strikes. frank in jerusalem, thank you. let's quickly - strikes. frank in jerusalem, thank you. let's quickly go l strikes. frank in jerusalem, l thank you. let's quickly go in washington and speak to rowan bridge. still thinks the abraham accords can be negotiated, still thinks is a future for two—state solution. on what basis does he come to that sort of optimistic vision?— of optimistic vision? well, i think for— of optimistic vision? well, i think forjoe _ of optimistic vision? well, i think forjoe biden, - of optimistic vision? well, i think forjoe biden, this - of optimistic vision? well, i think forjoe biden, this is l think forjoe biden, this is something of a foreign policy

tramp. he is in the waning weeks of administration and power is starting to move to donald trump —— policy transition. i think he really has a sense of optimism that he can move forward beyond this. antony blinken, the secretary of state earlier said they hope this led to the escalation of tension in the middle east. i think part of it is hoped that this will put pressure on hamas and the situation in gaza and basically force the issue for them now that hezbollah have been taken out of the picture, that that may force things forward on the gaza front on the release of hostages there. joe biden clearly hopes beyond that, it will move on to a broader middle east peace. whether he's able to maintain that momentum behind that is i think a very open question because it's a very complex situation and there are lots of moving parts that aren't wind up moving parts that aren't wind up at the moment.— moving parts that aren't wind up at the moment. rowan bridge in washington. —

up at the moment. rowan bridge in washington, thank _ up at the moment. rowan bridge in washington, thank you - up at the moment. rowan bridge in washington, thank you very i in washington, thank you very much for that. let's get some reaction from our panel. i should also say that assaf orion is also with us. he's head of strategic division. also with us, david hale and here in the studio, benham is here. benham, one big question has been whether hezbollah would agree to a cease—fire while the war was still going in gaza because nasrallah, who is dead, said he would continue on ending. it hasn't, so why would they change? abs. hasn't, so why would they change?— hasn't, so why would they chance? �* , , ., change? a bigger question i think is what _ change? a bigger question i think is what about - change? a bigger question i think is what about the - change? a bigger question i l think is what about the patron of hezbollah, which has been trying to bring on these other theatres. this is to get a wider war so that israel would not be able

to win in gaza. but israel's military success against these three fronts has been able to get hezbollah and its patron to at least disconnect the docks. tonight is at least a political victory brought to you by a military victory, particularly when you look at what has happened on the covert action front as well as military escalation since september. brigadier orion, you served in the idf general staff and you liaise with the army after a cease—fire was agreed in 2006. what makes you think that this agreement would be more successful than the last one? good evening. it's always good to hear— good evening. it's always good to hear that a cease—fire is on, — to hear that a cease—fire is on. but _ to hear that a cease—fire is on, but like in real life, after— on, but like in real life, after wedding comes marriage. it's after wedding comes marriage. it's not — after wedding comes marriage. it's not about what's being in the current framework, but the

quality — the current framework, but the quality and credibility of implantation hezbollah wants to stop the — implantation hezbollah wants to stop the fire on the back foot. however. _ stop the fire on the back foot. however, the leader causes in the teter— however, the leader causes in the later articles like this disarming and restrictions on the arrns— disarming and restrictions on the arms throughout lebanon border— the arms throughout lebanon border - _ the arms throughout lebanon border — all these will stand the test _ border — all these will stand the test of time. i think israet— the test of time. i think israel will both distrust and verify— israel will both distrust and verify with little help of our friends _ verify with little help of our friends at.— friends at. on that point, there is _ friends at. on that point, there is a _ friends at. on that point, there is a referral - friends at. on that point, | there is a referral process within the agreement which israel could use to alert the parties to a breach of the terms. but they're also reserving a unilateral right to attack a hezbollah position if they see fit. there are concerns about maybe israel will stick to the terms of this

agreement. will stick to the terms of this agreement-— will stick to the terms of this agreement. israelthis time, i think, is less _ agreement. israelthis time, i think, is less tolerant - agreement. israelthis time, i think, is less tolerant and - think, is less tolerant and less— think, is less tolerant and less patient to look at the enemy— less patient to look at the enemy build up its forces preparing to attack the galilee, and we will sit idly by. israel has the experience of sharing information with unifil, _ of sharing information with unifil, seeing that it doesn't help— unifil, seeing that it doesn't help and _ unifil, seeing that it doesn't help and hezbollah keeps on going — help and hezbollah keeps on going i_ help and hezbollah keeps on going. i think this time, we have — going. i think this time, we have some arrangement of suspenders having the old 1701 structure — suspenders having the old 1701 structure with the lebanese armed _ structure with the lebanese armed forces and unifil, and on top of— armed forces and unifil, and on top of that, — armed forces and unifil, and on top of that, the us mechanism — us, uk, — top of that, the us mechanism — us, uk, france, germany, possibly— us, uk, france, germany, possibly italy — if all these don't _ possibly italy — if all these don't work, we preserve the right— don't work, we preserve the right for— don't work, we preserve the right for self—defense. i think that's— right for self—defense. i think that's comprehendible. ambassador hale, you know

beirut and lebanon as well as anyone. you'll also know the lebanese army is especially weak compared to hezbollah. how on earth are going to police an agreement south of the litani river when hezbollah is the more powerful party?- river when hezbollah is the more powerful party? they won't with umrll. — more powerful party? they won't with unifil, because _ more powerful party? they won't with unifil, because unusu- with unifil, because unifil doesn't _ with unifil, because unifil doesn't have _ with unifil, because unifil doesn't have the _ with unifil, because unifil doesn't have the mandate . with unifil, because unifil| doesn't have the mandate to with unifil, because unifil- doesn't have the mandate to use as weapons _ doesn't have the mandate to use as weapons it's _ doesn't have the mandate to use as weapons. it's not _ doesn't have the mandate to use as weapons. it's not really- doesn't have the mandate to use as weapons. it's not really an - as weapons. it's not really an answer — as weapons. it's not really an answer i_ as weapons. it's not really an answer. i would _ as weapons. it's not really an answer. i would draw- as weapons. it's not really an answer. i would draw your. answer. i would draw your attention _ answer. i would draw your attention to _ answer. i would draw your attention to the _ answer. i would draw your attention to the fact - answer. i would draw your attention to the fact in - answer. i would draw yourl attention to the fact in this part— attention to the fact in this part of— attention to the fact in this part of the _ attention to the fact in this part of the world, - attention to the fact in this part of the world, there . attention to the fact in thisl part of the world, there are realty— part of the world, there are really three _ part of the world, there are really three levels - part of the world, there are really three levels for- part of the world, there are i really three levels for focus. one — really three levels for focus. one is— really three levels for focus. one is what— really three levels for focus. one is what happens - really three levels for focus. one is what happens in- really three levels for focus. - one is what happens in lebanon and between _ one is what happens in lebanon and between israel— one is what happens in lebanon and between israel and - and between israel and hezbollah, _ and between israel and hezbollah, and - and between israel and hezbollah, and i- and between israel and hezbollah, and i don'tl and between israel and - hezbollah, and i don't expect this to — hezbollah, and i don't expect this to really _ hezbollah, and i don't expect this to really be _ this to really be determinative, i this to really be - determinative, although this to really be _ determinative, although it's a relief— determinative, although it's a relief to— determinative, although it's a relief to many. _ determinative, although it's a relief to many. the _ determinative, although it's a relief to many. the second i determinative, although it's a relief to many. the second isl relief to many. the second is what — relief to many. the second is what prime _ relief to many. the second is what prime minister- relief to many. the second is. what prime minister netanyahu was coaxing _ what prime minister netanyahu was coaxing on, _ what prime minister netanyahu was coaxing on, which - what prime minister netanyahu was coaxing on, which is - what prime minister netanyahu was coaxing on, which is the i was coaxing on, which is the irahiah— was coaxing on, which is the iranian problem _ was coaxing on, which is the iranian problem and - was coaxing on, which is the iranian problem and i- was coaxing on, which is the iranian problem and i think. iranian problem and i think there — iranian problem and i think there is— iranian problem and i think there is not— iranian problem and i think there is not the _ iranian problem and i think there is not the trump- there is not the trump administration - there is not the trump administration is - there is not the trump| administration is going there is not the trump. administration is going to there is not the trump- administration is going to do. are they— administration is going to do. are they going _ administration is going to do. are they going to _ administration is going to do. are they going to fiddle - administration is going to do.

are they going to fiddle withl are they going to fiddle with 1701 with _ are they going to fiddle with 1701 with a _ are they going to fiddle with 1701 with a tactical— are they going to fiddle with| 1701 with a tactical approach, or are — 1701 with a tactical approach, or are they— 1701 with a tactical approach, or are they going _ 1701 with a tactical approach, or are they going to - 1701 with a tactical approach, or are they going to focus - 1701 with a tactical approach, or are they going to focus on| or are they going to focus on putting — or are they going to focus on putting the _ or are they going to focus on putting the kind _ or are they going to focus on putting the kind of— or are they going to focus on putting the kind of pressure i or are they going to focus on . putting the kind of pressure on iran putting the kind of pressure on iran needed _ putting the kind of pressure on iran needed to _ putting the kind of pressure on iran needed to change, - putting the kind of pressure on iran needed to change, to- iran needed to change, to complete _ iran needed to change, to complete the _ iran needed to change, to complete the business . iran needed to change, to. complete the business that israet— complete the business that israet has _ complete the business that israel has done _ complete the business that israel has done to - complete the business that israel has done to make i complete the business that. israel has done to make iran change — israel has done to make iran change its _ israel has done to make iran change its calculus - israel has done to make iran change its calculus and - change its calculus and abilities. _ change its calculus and abilities.— change its calculus and abilities. . ., . abilities. just on the internal olitics, abilities. just on the internal politics. it's _ abilities. just on the internal politics, it's a _ abilities. just on the internal politics, it's a very _ abilities. just on the internal politics, it's a very fractious | politics, it's a very fractious country. a number of groups coming together in the parliament — obviously it's suspended, and there'll be recriminations for what has has brought on lebanon yet again. are you at all worried at a —— as a former ambassador about stability? i as a former ambassador about stabili ? ~ , ., , stability? i think the people i soke to stability? i think the people i spoke to in — stability? i think the people i spoke to in lebanon - stability? i think the people i spoke to in lebanon today i stability? i think the people i. spoke to in lebanon today who are spoke to in lebanon today whoi are anti—his—brother—word—mac are anti—his—brother—word—mac are disappointed _ are anti—his—brother—word—mac are disappointed with _ are anti—his—brother—word—mac are disappointed with this - are disappointed with this agreement— are disappointed with this agreement because - are disappointed with this agreement because theyl are disappointed with this - agreement because they believe an opportunity— agreement because they believe an opportunity is _ agreement because they believe an opportunity is being - agreement because they believe an opportunity is being missed l an opportunity is being missed i haven't heard anything that suggests— i haven't heard anything that suggests that's _ i haven't heard anything that suggests that's being - suggests that's being

addressed. _ suggests that's being addressed. in- suggests that's being addressed. in a - suggests that's being addressed. in a way, | suggests that's being. addressed. in a way, it's suggests that's being - addressed. in a way, it's1701 minus — addressed. in a way, it's1701 minus if_ addressed. in a way, it's1701 minus if his— addressed. in a way, it's1701 minus. if his brother- addressed. in a way, it's1701 minus. if his brother retainsl minus. if his brother retains its arms. _ minus. if his brother retains its arms. it _ minus. if his brother retains its arms, it can— minus. if his brother retains its arms, it can continue - minus. if his brother retains its arms, it can continue toi its arms, it can continue to assassinate _ its arms, it can continue to assassinate anyone - its arms, it can continue to assassinate anyone in - its arms, it can continue to - assassinate anyone in lebanon -- hezbottah _ assassinate anyone in lebanon —— hezbollah. nobody- assassinate anyone in lebanon —— hezbollah. nobody else - assassinate anyone in lebanoni —— hezbollah. nobody else will challenge — —— hezbollah. nobody else will challenge them _ —— hezbollah. nobody else will challenge them unless - —— hezbollah. nobody else will challenge them unless the - challenge them unless the international— challenge them unless the international community . challenge them unless the | international community to challenge them unless the - international community to an agreement— international community to an agreement with _ international community to an agreement with iran _ international community to an agreement with iran is - international community to an agreement with iran is able i international community to an agreement with iran is able to bring — agreement with iran is able to bring that— agreement with iran is able to bring that about. _ agreement with iran is able to bring that about.— bring that about. benham, ou're bring that about. benham, you're the _ bring that about. benham, you're the iranian - bring that about. benham, you're the iranian expert. | you're the iranian expert. ambassador hale is absolutely correct — the big power here is tehran and what it intends to do with its proxies. it's been an embarrassment because they've been blunted by israeli force. do you envisage a scenario where they would support a deal where hezbollah withdraws beyond the litani river? ., , , withdraws beyond the litani river? . , , ., withdraws beyond the litani river? . ,, ., , , ., river? perhaps to support a deconstruction _ river? perhaps to support a deconstruction experimentl river? perhaps to support a . deconstruction experiment that allows the crown deconstruction experiment that allows th