hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu says his cabinet is meeting tonight to agree a ceasefire deal with hezbollah in lebanon, on a day when israel has carried out extensive

air strikes in beirut. breaking news. we are getting news from washington that france and the united states will lead efforts for capacity building of the lebanese army and so, the force, the lebanese forces would need to be bolstered in the peers of france and us are prepared to put more money into that and also a statement from the un special coordinator for lebanon who said it is clear that the status quo of implementing any slick provisions of resolution 1701 while paying lip slick provisions of resolution 1701while paying lip service to others will not suffice, neither group can delay implementation under the guise of ostensible calm. read why, after months of negotiation, did this feel

like the moment for israel to agree a pause. its pretty obvious from the exchanges over recent days that while hezbollah is much diminished, it is not defeated nor entirely depleted of the immense firepower at its disposal. the other question is why did hezbollah and by association iran suddenly drop their demand that any ceasefire in lebanon be contingent on an end to the fighting in gaza. lets take those in turn. what assurances can be given that they are saved over 200 missiles went over the border on sunday?— missiles went over the border on sunday? the assurances are first and foremost _ on sunday? the assurances are first and foremost that - on sunday? the assurances are first and foremost that the - first and foremost that the removal of the threats of hezbollah commando who accumulated huge amounts of weapons at the springboard position just across the border

and so, the idf is rolling back to decades of work to build the infrastructure to spring into slaughter our communities. and that threat is gone and looking into the future, the result by the israeli government to prevent a recurrence or the return of hezbollah to the border area. and third, around 80% of the arsenal and the 20% is still significant but 80% of the arsenal of hezbollah which was larger than most countries that we know.— that we know. you are not likely to — that we know. you are not likely to get _ that we know. you are not likely to get a _ that we know. you are not likely to get a scenario - that we know. you are not i likely to get a scenario where hezbollah starts moving but it

still has south of the litani river and not in view of the israeli forces and it seems pretty secure that they've not been hit already.— been hit already. right, they need relief _ been hit already. right, they need relief and _ been hit already. right, they need relief and it _ been hit already. right, they need relief and it it's - been hit already. right, they need relief and it it's been i been hit already. right, they need relief and it it's been a | need relief and it it's been a devastating chapter for them but they are down but they are not out — but they are down but they are not out. and the implementation committee and what they're able to do— committee and what they're able to do and — committee and what they're able to do and based on my experience of 38 years, it's probably— experience of 38 years, it's probably very little. these communities in south lebanon are completely co—opted by hezbollah and the recruitment ground, — hezbollah and the recruitment ground, boys will be going back in their— ground, boys will be going back in their cars on the search to back— in their cars on the search to back into _ in their cars on the search to back into these villages and so, is — back into these villages and so, is not _ back into these villages and so, is not really changing anything and to be honest, all of these — anything and to be honest, all of these armies are a fantastic organisation that invested hugely— organisation that invested hugely in them and the problem is not _ hugely in them and the problem is not the — hugely in them and the problem is not the military capacity the — is not the military capacity the problem is the political will — the problem is the political will. and they reflect the

divisions of lebanon and they cannot— divisions of lebanon and they cannot confront hezbollah otherwise the deal falls apart. the idea — otherwise the deal falls apart. the idea is not to confront and that— the idea is not to confront and that political equation, i have not seen _ that political equation, i have not seen anyone identify to me with this — not seen anyone identify to me with this administration or the next _ with this administration or the next one — with this administration or the next one in washington has in mind — next one in washington has in mind and _ next one in washington has in mind and it really goes back to changing — mind and it really goes back to changing the power equation of the middle east which is about tehrah — the middle east which is about tehran. and they can do localised problems more than today — localised problems more than today in_ localised problems more than toda . , ., ., ., today. in terms of the iranian art of today. in terms of the iranian part of this — today. in terms of the iranian part of this equation - today. in terms of the iranian part of this equation which i today. in terms of the iranian | part of this equation which we discussed in the last half hour, do you think tonight that because of the humiliation they suffered here, do you think there's a split within the proxies presumably some within the hamas framework who feel abandoned by hezbollah. the laraer abandoned by hezbollah. tue: larger challenges abandoned by hezbollah. tte: larger challenges between abandoned by hezbollah. t'te: larger challenges between this proxy of lebanese, hezbollah and the islamic republic, these

are the lifelines that the islamic republic is trying to establish in this cease—fire agreement and its what allows the 20% of left of the arsenal that they just mention the 20% of left of the arsenal that theyjust mention to be safeguarded and for example, during this entire war, over a year, we've been looking rather closely at what hezbollah is member of fire israel these anti—tank arsenal, there's drones, but in terms of the most lethal systems the precision guided missiles that are reverse engineered in the most dangerous stuff in the most dangerous stuff in the most far—reaching stuff, i've only been able to count four fears that the most lethal capabilities are those that had been held in reserve and the islamic republic may be be hoping for a situation where you might not like the politics now, you might not like the optics now but as long as the islamic republic doesn't feel that maximum pressure that he talked about, it's going to find a way to recreate the post—2006 scenario by hook by crook.

post-2006 scenario by hook by crook. , ., , , �*, ., post-2006 scenario by hook by crook. , ., _ �*, ., ~:: crook. obviously, there's a 60 day period _ crook. obviously, there's a 60 day period for— crook. obviously, there's a 60 day period for the _ crook. obviously, there's a 60 day period for the cease-fire l day period for the cease—fire to enfold if and for the israeli troops to withdraw but how dangerous is it as a former soldier who served with the idf, how difficult is it to withdraw from territory and being on a social media posts that they have reached the litani river and there a long way back to retrieve retrieve how dangerous does that become? the first issue in the morning after a cease—fire is that you find yourself with your enemy with very close ranges. actually in 2006, we had several incidents in which the idf forces found themselves walked into by retreating hezbollah coming other hideouts. and i do expect some rough patch in the beginning too, until they really decouple

and disengage and move away. and there is the interpretation of what is offensive operations that the two parties are not supposed to take now after the cease—fire and i am sure that some of the operations like engineering works and so on will be seen by the lebanese site is offensive and there is disputed ground there as well. a lot to realise in the quality administration that is looking for some ground solution. a administration that is looking for some ground there on. a administration that is looking for some ground there as a administration that is looking for some ground there as well. disputed ground there as well. a lot to realise in the quality of the liaison in the community of the liaison in the community between the parties which in between the parties which in this case will be through this case will be through unifil and may be by this new unifil and may be by this new committee. unifil and may be by this new committee. unifil and may be by this new committee-— unifil and may be by this new committee. ambassador, we've not really _ committee-— unifil and may be by this new committee. ambassador, we've not really _ committee. ambassador, we've not really talked _ committee. ambassador, we've committee. ambassador, we've not really talked _ committee. ambassador, we've not really talked about - committee. ambassador, we've not really talked about the - not really talked about the not really talked about - committee. ambassador, we've not really talked about the - not really talked about the american problem in all of american problem in all of this. we have an upcoming this. we have an upcoming administration and much closer administration and much closer relations with benjamin relations with benjamin netanyahu and we have a netanyahu and we have a lame—duck outgoing lame—duck outgoing administration that is looking administration that is looking

for some sort of solution. a for some sort of solution. a legacy solution, if you will. do you think that is contributed to what we have seen tonight and home wish think the americans put pressure up the pressure on the prime minister? t pressure up the pressure on the prime minister?— prime minister? i think there is a loric prime minister? i think there is a logic for— prime minister? i think there is a logic for prime _ prime minister? i think there is a logic for prime minister. is a logic for prime minister benjamin netanyahu to do it he decided — benjamin netanyahu to do it he decided to do and refocus on irah — decided to do and refocus on had the _

we have to stick with it and be persistent _ we have to stick with it and be persistent and if there's an opportunity here developing from — opportunity here developing from these ingredients to actually make it work. and so, my advice _ actually make it work. and so, my advice to anyone who listens his stick— my advice to anyone who listens his stick to — my advice to anyone who listens his stick to it and do not believe _ his stick to it and do not believe-— his stick to it and do not believe. ., �* ., ., believe. you're worried about the isolationism _ believe. you're worried about the isolationism that - believe. you're worried about the isolationism that you - believe. you're worried about the isolationism that you see | the isolationism that you see in the donald trump circle. t in the donald trump circle. i don't like the word isolationism, it's a bit loaded _ isolationism, it's a bit loaded. and it's notjust unique _ loaded. and it's notjust unique to donald trump. he goes back for— unique to donald trump. he goes back for years. it's neglect comments on the problem is solved, — comments on the problem is solved, we just don't want to be there _ solved, we just don't want to be there to see it through and that— be there to see it through and that is— be there to see it through and that is key, persistence that is required to deal with the irahiah_ is required to deal with the iranian problem. and is required to deal with the iranian problem.— is required to deal with the iranian problem. and you think there is potential _ iranian problem. and you think there is potential for _ iranian problem. and you think there is potential for the - there is potential for the abraham accords and finding a solution in the region, does it flow through those abraham accords thatjoe biden spoke about tonight? t accords that joe biden spoke about tonight?— about tonight? i think it involves _ about tonight? i think it involves a _ about tonight? i think it involves a change - about tonight? i think it involves a change in - about tonight? i think it involves a change in the iranian— involves a change in the iranian calculus. if there's a certain— iranian calculus. if there's a certain chaos and there will throughout the middle east and

the accords are stuck and bring about— the accords are stuck and bring about peace and stability and welfare — about peace and stability and welfare of people, they are able — welfare of people, they are able to— welfare of people, they are able to turn the tables fully on iran— able to turn the tables fully on iran and his trust in an enormous _ on iran and his trust in an enormousjob on that. on iran and his trust in an enormous job on that. than those — enormous job on that. than those of— enormous job on that. than those of things need to be brenda _ those of things need to be brenda play —— brought into play to consolidate the claims. -- brought into play to consolidate the claims. some discussion — consolidate the claims. some discussion on _ consolidate the claims. some discussion on gaza. _ consolidate the claims. some discussion on gaza. stay - consolidate the claims. some discussion on gaza. stay with j discussion on gaza. stay with us and we'll be right back after this.

the israeli prime minister says the duration of the ceasefire in lebanon will depend on what happens on the ground. israel reserves its freedom of action he said, if a tunnel is dug, if a truck with arms is brought in, if hezbollah tries to rearm then we will strike. and for any violation, we will respond severely. lets talk politics for a second. clearly there are those in the

cabinet who did not want this. the ultra—nationalist security minister, itamar ben—gvir said he favoured pursuing the war until hezbollah was eliminated by force. how much is netenyahu going out on a limb here. if the ceasefire fails. if hezbollah rearms and comes again. does he lose political capital? does this influence it in any way? does this influence it in any wa ? ., does this influence it in any wa? ., ., ., way? those who may want to easily transfer _ way? those who may want to easily transfer this _ way? those who may want to easily transfer this to - way? those who may want to easily transfer this to the - easily transfer this to the south which readies this diplomatic momentum and those who are part of the disconnect and the politics he or give it and the politics he or give it a little bit more area to double down on another and it's quite keen to not do so and when you do talk about the gaza cease—fire is much more of a regional equation like turkey, qatar and a host of other actors because this was the main geographic theatre that touched off the changes we have seen and they have been radical

in the post october seven the middle east.— in the post october seven the middle east. ~ ., , ., middle east. where does tehran see thin . s middle east. where does tehran see things going _ middle east. where does tehran see things going and _ middle east. where does tehran see things going and the - middle east. where does tehran see things going and the coming months in respect to gaza? thea;r months in respect to gaza? they are the region — months in respect to gaza? they are the region able _ months in respect to gaza? they are the region able to _ months in respect to gaza? tte: are the region able to break on failed states, downtrodden and dispossessed persons to be able to put a gun in their hand and have them fired people that tehran wants to fire at stop by but they need to retain support from the proxies that thousands of people in gaza on the canvas and torrential rain without food, without fuel and is there a danger as are the panelists that tonight that actually, the proxy start to lose the street? 0r proxy start to lose the street? or the medium to proxy start to lose the street? or the medium