and if you want to continue watching the bbc news at ten, please turn over to bbc one or you can watch on iplayer. next, it's newsnight.

foreign policy a la carte. the pm tells the city the uk is free to pick and choose between europe and the united states. but are we really inured to the financial crisis now unfolding in france? and masterchef aired tonight as scheduled, in spite of the outcry from its former contestants. gregg wallace apologises for an attack on middle class women. but where is accountability at the bbc? good evening, welcome to newsnight, the home of late night debate and interviews. our panel tonight — telegraph columnist and associate editor of the spectator, fraser nelson, and former shadow culture secretary thangam debbonaire.

and of course nick is here. france is facing fresh political turmoil tonight, the minority government teetering on the brink, after the prime minister, michel barnier, forced through an austerity budget without a vote. there is deep concern on financial markets, the french borrowing costs have soared this past week, reaching the highest premium over german bonds since the height of the debt crisis in 2012. and we all remember what happened back then. the contagion spread right across europe. mr barnier�*s government does not have a majority in parliament. they depends on the support of the far right national rally. but tonight their leader, marine le pen, says she will support a motion of no confidence in the government on wednesday. here to unpack all this from paris we have catherine fieschi, political analyst at the robert schuman institute. good to have you with us, it will be a crucial few days good to have you with us, it will be a crucialfew days in good to have you with us, it will be a crucial few days in front so spell out where we are tonight. it is

out where we are tonight. it is auoin to out where we are tonight. it is going to be — out where we are tonight. it is going to be a _ out where we are tonight. it is going to be a crucial _ out where we are tonight. it 3 going to be a crucial few days. essentially, as you stated, michel barnier laid out a budget and decided he was going to avoid putting it to a vote, he knew it had very few chances of going through and the minute he triggered the so—called 49.3 article of the french constitution, it was clear that the left coalition mfp was going to call for a vote of no confidence and of course over the past few days, the past week, marine le pen has started talking a lot tougher —— left coalition nfp. tonight after the national assembly decision she said she would also vote for a motion of no confidence and therefore there is every likelihood that on wednesday barnier�*s government will indeed fall. barnier's government will indeed fall. ~ , barnier's government will indeed fall. , ,. , fall. we can see some pictures up president macron _

fall. we can see some pictures up president macron arriving - fall. we can see some pictures up president macron arriving in - fall. we can see some pictures upi president macron arriving in saudi arabia, leaping to the crisis behind pond y has marine le pen decided to side with the left on an issue of austerity and a motion of no confidence? i austerity and a motion of no confidence?— austerity and a motion of no confidence? ~ , , ., austerity and a motion of no confidence? ~' , , ., ., , confidence? i think this is what was rather unexpected. _ confidence? i think this is what was rather unexpected. it was - confidence? i think this is what was rather unexpected. it was quite - rather unexpected. it was quite expected that the left nfp that would put forward a motion, they always said they would. i think marine le pen, in a sense, decided that she wasn't really gaining very much from playing nice and being constructed. they are the largest single party in the french national assembly. barnierwas single party in the french national assembly. barnier was not making very many concessions in their favour. her base, her hardcore troops, were starting to get a little restless in terms of her attitude. of course her attitude as been like this over the past few years, she has tried very hard to come across as somebody who is really the government in waiting and therefore to be responsible, act

responsibly. but this was actually proving too difficult for her troops. there is also the matter of the fact that she is going to a trialfor the fact that she is going to a trial for embezzlement of european funds and this was probably a good way to change the conversation. but there is no doubt that this was a bit of a surprise. she had said she would try to support barnier as much as she could and all of a sudden she seemed to be changing her mind and this has landed barnier and the government in hot water. find this has landed barnier and the government in hot water. and for eo - le government in hot water. and for people who _ government in hot water. and for people who have _ government in hot water. and for people who have not _ government in hot water. and for people who have not been - government in hot water. and for i people who have not been following closely, i know you are not an economist, but what is the state of the debt and the problem in the french economy? i the debt and the problem in the french economy?— french economy? i think it's important — french economy? i think it's important to _ french economy? i think it's important to recognise - french economy? i think it's important to recognise that| french economy? i think it's - important to recognise that france first and foremost is going through a political crisis. it is a political crisis, the fragmentation in the national assembly, the fact that there is no government majority and that there are powerful extremes

on either side, both on the far left and the far right, that is really causing the trouble that we are witnessing. of course there is also this debt has ballooned. as you may know, there is actually an investigation going on in france as to how the debt could have risen so much and, allegedly, so unexpectedly. it is quite clear that france is in a difficult economic situation but mainly it is now very deep political crisis and i'm insisting on this because i think there is not going to be a ready—made solution. the government will fall, probably, on wednesday, it will be very difficult to find another prime minister and in any case, because elections cannot be called until next summer, it will be impossible to reshuffle the cards

and, in a way, try and find a different kind of majority. so they will be a level of instability that is going to make markets nervous. but i think it is very important to highlight the fact that even though france is in a difficult budgetary position, even though it is at the beginning of potentially an economic downturn, because this is not sustainable, mainly it is a political crisis. i think we have to be careful about talking about a financial crisis, i think we are still very far away from that, despite the level of debt and despite the level of debt and despite the level of debt and despite the budget crisis. actually, we are talking about a resilient economy. yes, borrowing costs have gone up but if you think that france's right now borrowing at 3.1, or 3.2%, yes, that is comparable to greece and portugal and italy now but let's keep in mind that during the eurozone crisis, greece was

borrowing at 20%.— the eurozone crisis, greece was borrowing at 20%. that is a really aood borrowing at 20%. that is a really good starter _ borrowing at 20%. that is a really good starter for _ borrowing at 20%. that is a really good starter for ten, _ borrowing at 20%. that is a really good starter for ten, thank - borrowing at 20%. that is a really good starter for ten, thank you, l good starter for ten, thank you, good starter for ten, thank you, good to talk to you. nick, no budget, the government potentially by wednesday, no elections until july. suddenly the uk looks quite normal! �* ., , july. suddenly the uk looks quite normal! �* . , ., normal! and that is the view of uk ministers. — normal! and that is the view of uk ministers, that _ normal! and that is the view of uk ministers, that we _ normal! and that is the view of uk ministers, that we are _ normal! and that is the view of uk ministers, that we are looking - normal! and that is the view of uk ministers, that we are looking like a pretty stable and calm port. but yes, catherine saying we have a crisis in france but we also have paralysis in germany so the three party coalition olaf scholz, that collapsed last month. we have federal in germany in february, seven months earlier than expected. —— federal elections. and the eye are currently polling in second place, and put it bluntly, they are outside the political mainstream. what you have is crisis and paralysis in the two largest historic and current driving forces behind the european union and then

across europe you have nationalist and populist doing very well, coming first in the netherlands and in austria. one element of stability is when you have member states in trouble, power goes to the european commission, ursula von der leyen, the president recently has been installed and her new commission was installed and her new commission was installed and her new commission was installed and i should just say about michel barnier, talking to people in his world, his view is that yes, he has made concessions to marine le pen in the last few days but his view is that he will do it his way, confident after what was seen as a success on the eu side in the brexit negotiations pulled no longer to be patronised by the parisian elites, he will do it his way and that's what he is where he is put meanwhile we have the prime minister in the city tonight making a big speech to the financiers, those involved in the uk diplomacy. you have a crisis in europe, a mini crisis developing in the united states right now. and he seems to be sending the message that we can sort

of navigate our way between them point is that realistic? at}! of navigate our way between them point is that realistic?— point is that realistic? of course it is what britain _ point is that realistic? of course it is what britain has _ point is that realistic? of course it is what britain has always - point is that realistic? of course | it is what britain has always done and i think— it is what britain has always done and i think he is trying to report a false _ and i think he is trying to report a false notion, nobody saying that britain _ false notion, nobody saying that britain should not be friends with the us— britain should not be friends with the us and with the eu. what he's trying _ the us and with the eu. what he's trying to— the us and with the eu. what he's trying to say it is government intends — trying to say it is government intends to be closer to the eu than the previous conservative government could basically want to see if he can do— could basically want to see if he can do some post exit rapprochement, as it were _ can do some post exit rapprochement, as it were but— can do some post exit rapprochement, as it were but the slight problem is the eu _ as it were but the slight problem is the eu does not look nearly as unstable — the eu does not look nearly as unstable as it was last year. in fact it — unstable as it was last year. in fact it is — unstable as it was last year. in fact it is difficult to see where the eu — fact it is difficult to see where the eu as _ fact it is difficult to see where the eu as an institution goes from here and — the eu as an institution goes from here and where the european parliament elections recently, is a populist _ parliament elections recently, is a populist doing very well and they succeeded in screening them all out and pretty— succeeded in screening them all out and pretty much renewing their government but that did not delete away any— government but that did not delete away any of the problem fundamentally we see in france and germany— fundamentally we see in france and germany and right around the continent. you basically see a response _ continent. you basically see a response to the demographic change and britain is one of the very few countries — and britain is one of the very few countries where you have a government with a big majority, like we had _ government with a big majority, like we had under the tories. it�*s a

we had under the tories. it's a roblem we had under the tories. it's a problem for — we had under the tories. it's a problem for european - we had under the tories. it's a problem for european unity i we had under the tories. it�*s a. problem for european unity when, as nick said, you have this debt crisis in france, huge economic problems in germany at the moment, and the prime minister being told that we need to tie our wagons to the european union. i tie our wagons to the european union. ~ ., union. i think what the prime minister said _ union. i think what the prime minister said this _ union. i think what the prime minister said this evening - union. i think what the prime | minister said this evening was union. i think what the prime - minister said this evening was we need _ minister said this evening was we need to— minister said this evening was we need to tie — minister said this evening was we need to tie our— minister said this evening was we need to tie our wagons _ minister said this evening was we need to tie our wagons both- minister said this evening was we need to tie our wagons both to i need to tie our wagons both to america — need to tie our wagons both to america and _ need to tie our wagons both to america and the _ need to tie our wagons both to america and the european- need to tie our wagons both to i america and the european union need to tie our wagons both to - america and the european union and fraser— america and the european union and fraser is _ america and the european union and fraser is absolutely _ america and the european union and fraser is absolutely right, _ fraser is absolutely right, positioning _ fraser is absolutely right, positioning this— fraser is absolutely right, positioning this country. fraser is absolutely right, positioning this country isj fraser is absolutely right, - positioning this country is close to the european _ positioning this country is close to the european union _ positioning this country is close to the european union than - positioning this country is close to the european union than the - positioning this country is close to - the european union than the previous government— the european union than the previous government is— the european union than the previous government is definitely— the european union than the previous government is definitely part - the european union than the previous government is definitely part of - government is definitely part of what _ government is definitely part of what keir— government is definitely part of what keir starmer_ government is definitely part of what keir starmer is _ government is definitely part of what keir starmer is wrong - government is definitely part of what keir starmer is wrong to l government is definitely part ofl what keir starmer is wrong to do government is definitely part of - what keir starmer is wrong to do but he's also _ what keir starmer is wrong to do but he's also trying — what keir starmer is wrong to do but he's also trying to _ what keir starmer is wrong to do but he's also trying to make _ what keir starmer is wrong to do but he's also trying to make sure - what keir starmer is wrong to do but he's also trying to make sure peoplej he's also trying to make sure people see he's_ he's also trying to make sure people see he's not— he's also trying to make sure people see he's n