remain a major risk to global growth. it's also warned central banks against cutting interest rates too fast, i'm joined by the oecd's chief economist, alvaro pereira. thank you very much forjoining us. interesting report and also particularly the part about interest rates, warning central banks not to be too hasty when cutting? banks not to be too hasty when cuttin: ? ~ ~, banks not to be too hasty when cuttin: ? ~ a, banks not to be too hasty when cuttin~?~ a, , cutting? what we say is basically _ cutting? what we say is basically that _ cutting? what we say is basically that we - cutting? what we say is basically that we are . cutting? what we say is - basically that we are moving in the right direction regarding inflation, so headline inflation, so headline inflation is moving fine but we see that service price inflation remains fairly sticky inflation remains fairly sticky in most countries. so for the average oecd country, we have service price invasion around

5%. it is about composition and the service act and wage growth in many of the sectors. it is important to remain prudent. we believe that central banks going forward will continue to have, take a very close look at the data. if the data continues to progress well service price inflation is less sticky, we believe that there is margin to continue to loosen. we think thatis continue to loosen. we think that is our essential scenario. but sometimes we have surprises. wejust but sometimes we have surprises. we just had but sometimes we have surprises. wejust had one, for example, in brazil. it was moving very nicely regarding declining interest rates. they had a couple of bad readings and so they had to reverse course temporarily. we think thatis course temporarily. we think that is why it is important to central banks to remain prudent, even though we think there is margin to continue to ease.~ . there is margin to continue to ease. ~ ., ., ,, there is margin to continue to ease. ~ ., ., ., , ease. what do you now see the main facts _ ease. what do you now see the main facts being _ ease. what do you now see the main facts being to _ ease. what do you now see the main facts being to inflation, . main facts being to inflation, perhaps not going to also

targets? perhaps not going to also taraets? ., perhaps not going to also taraets? . ., , ., targets? the main threats are first of all. — targets? the main threats are first of all, obviously, - first of all, obviously, whether service preservation goodies to be stickier, which means that service preservation does not come down as we would like, which would certainly make central banks pause for thinking about. another one would be if there is an escalation of conflicts around the world, particularly in the middle east will that this happened, there will be an impact immediately on energy prices. and so this is another one. the third one, obviously, if you have significant disruptions in the world economy and escalation of trade tensions, this could also have an impact on the growth and inflation. �* , , , inflation. and “ust briefly, there was — inflation. and “ust briefly, there was a _ inflation. and just briefly, there was a significant - inflation. and just briefly, - there was a significant upgrade to the us outlook and also to the chinese outlook. why was that? what are the fundamentals there? , ., ., ., “ that? what are the fundamentals there? , ., .,, there? the chinese outlook was “ust a there? the chinese outlook was just a little _ there? the chinese outlook was just a little bit _ there? the chinese outlook was just a little bit of— there? the chinese outlook was just a little bit of an _ just a little bit of an upgrade, taking into account

theirfiscal upgrade, taking into account their fiscal stimulus, it is about 0.1% more than we have forecasted before. we still see growth in china below 5% this year and next year but lower and we think that they are still reeling from their adjustment in the real estate market. the us grows, we are suddenly a lot more buoyant. partly because not only it is doing well but more importantly, one indicated that we really like everything that is very positive is that productivity in the last two or three as has been fairly strong. we think this is potentially linked to the very high investment that we see in it and the ai sector. we released a new research that shows that we expect ai may have an impact between 0.4% and 0.9% in terms of labour productivity growth every year additional. that leads us to the figures that we see now. when they have strong productivity growth, the companies will do better, sales

will go up, so that is good news. ., ~' will go up, so that is good news. . ~ , ., will go up, so that is good news. ., ~ , ., y will go up, so that is good news. . ~ ,, , . will go up, so that is good news. ., ~' y . ., news. thank you very much for “oininu news. thank you very much for joining us. _ news. thank you very much for joining us, alvaro _ news. thank you very much for joining us, alvaro pereira, - joining us, alvaro pereira, chief economist at oecd. interesting that al chief economist at oecd. interesting that ai will be improving productivity there. more now on the political crisis in france where once more the country could be without a government later today. prime minister michel barnier, who was appointed by president macron afterjuly�*s inconclusive parliamentary election, faces a no—confidence motion over the budget — a vote he is expected to lose. on monday monsieur barnier used a presidential decree to force through his budget without a parliamentay vote. furious opposition parties said they would back a no—confidence motion to oust the former brexit negotiator in a vote expected today. in parliament, he pleaded with legislators about the gravity of the political threat. translation: the situation is difficult in terms - of the budget, in terms of finance. i'm also very vigilant when it comes to financial markets, which i know quite well. it's very difficult

in economic and social terms. one thing i'm sure of, monsieur chassagne, and keep what i say today in mind, is that the vote of no—confidence, which will be tackled tomorrow when we see each other again, will make everything more difficult and more serious. so how has it all come about? earlier we spoke to tomasz michalski, associate professor of economics at the hec business school in paris. the government probably will be overthrown and it has to basically cease to function. there's going to be probably a new prime minister appointed by president macron. the fifth republic has a very strong power of the president, and then the crucial sprint is to adopt a budget for 2025. if such a text is not adopted by the end of december, there may be a shutdown, just like in, say, the us, when there is no funding

for public spending. however, that's not going to be likely to happen because if it comes to that, president macron can ask for special powers that are granted under the article 16 of the constitution and can even file a budget by decree, surpassing the parliament. there may be also earlier, a try by the new government to apply a continuation of the budget of 2024 to 2025, which would be a copy paste. so we're in uncharted territory, but it seems that at the end of the day, when you work out the game for backward induction, macron is going to have the upper hand, at least in deciding on where the budget is going to be. now, let's talk aboutjaguar — the company's recent ad roll—out has raised a lot of questions and heated debate about just what the luxury car brand was thinking. and we got another insight when the company revealed its electric type 00 design in miami. our north america business correspondent ritika gupta has been talking to jaguar�*s

managing director. jaguar unveiled its electric car concept in miami, the backbone of its new identity. and it comes hot on the heels of a video teaser of the brand's makeover, which was lambasted for being an extreme divergence from the british car maker's heritage. but according to managing but according to managing director rawdon glover, the rebranding achieved exactly what it set out to do. director rawdon glover, jaguar needs to be bold and disruptive in order to cut through and get to cut through and get our message across. our message across. i think clearly there's been i think clearly there's been an awful lot of attention an awful lot of attention on the brand and if you think on the brand and if you think about the teaserfilm, about the teaserfilm, which is what you're referring which is what you're referring to, the job of that teaser film to, the job of that teaser film is to indicate that something is to indicate that something interesting is coming interesting is coming to get people's attention. to get people's attention. and over the last and over the last couple of weeks, we've couple of weeks, we've absolutely had that. absolutely had that. but actually what it meant but actually what it meant was when we unveiled this beautiful thing behind me, was when we unveiled this we then had more

eyeballs upon us. so in that context, yeah, so in that context, yeah, i think the strategy i think the strategy was successful. was successful. while its rebranding was a gamble, there is a key market that the car—maker is firmly betting on for growth is firmly betting on for growth. forjaguar, which hopes forjaguar, which hopes to break into the us, to break into the us, the threat of tariffs most recently grappling the threat of tariffs on imports by president elect on imports by president elect donald trump could pose donald trump could pose a significant challenge. a significant challenge. north america is a really north america is a really important market forjaguar. we think it's probably going to be our most important one. we're still two years away from actually delivering vehicles in north america. it'll be the end of 2026. it's not exactly clear on exactly what tariffs are going to be introduced or not and how they're going to operate, but obviously what we'll have to do is we'll important market forjaguar. have to respond to those as and when they come. but either way, we still see this market being really, really important forjaguar. and a key feature of jaguar�*s new brand is going all electric by 2025. glover told me that despite a slowdown in ev sales, he sees a strong appetite for luxury evs in the future and that is what they're preparing for. so that was the md ofjaguar — next we're going to hear from the man at the helm of malaysia airlines. malaysia's national carrier

has lurched from one crisis to another —

and yes, theo, because of the historical records of malaysia airlines in 2014 and malaysia airlines cannot, cannot, cannot wage a wager on safety. you've been leading the company for the past eight years. do you see yourself as part of the future? are you the right man to take the company forward? my purpose is to stabilise the organisation. lead the organisation with clarity of purpose. two principles. principle number one malaysia airlines must be part of nation building, malaysia. whatever it does, it must be an economic enabler for the country. number two, it must run commercially. it must stand on its own two feet commercially. that's the two principles that

that i've been very clear with the whole entire organisation. theo, it's not about me. it's about the ambition of my forefathers way back in 1922. it's not about ism. it's about those ambitions. so myjob is to receive that baton and pass it on to someone else. it's not about ism. it's about the purpose. in other news... south korean stocks sank this morning while the won rebounded from earlier losses after president yoon suk yeol dramatically declared martial law overnight before reversing the decision hours later. the shock announcement sent shivers through the trading floor in seoul. the kospi index ended down more than i%, having shed as much as 2.3% at the open. here in the uk three english rail operators will be renationalised by labour next year after it passed a law allowing it to do so. south western railways will be the first to renationalise in may next year, followed by c2c injuly, and greater anglia towards the end of the year. that's according to the transport department.

that's it for the business programme today.

hello from the bbc sport centre. for the first time in their history, wales women have qualified for a major tournament after beating ireland over two legs. goals by hannah cain and carriejones mean that, after years of near misses, wales' women will go the euros next summer in switzerland, thanks to a smash—and—grab 2—i win in dublin which secured a 3—2 aggregate victory. many of the players' families were at the aviva stadium to watch the historic moment — we'll hearfrom some of them in a moment. wales' most—capped player and record goal—scorer jess fishlock said qualifying was the proudest moment of her life.

she had to leave the field in the second half with a hamstring injury and in tears, but they quickly turned to smiles. i couldn't even watch the last couple of minutes. i had my hood over my eyes. i think what i love so much about this group is you've got players who have been here the 20 years and you've got players that it is their first six months. you've got players that it is theirfirst six months. and we are all in this group and it is like our entire legacy of our nation is in this group of players. and how poetic that this is the group of players that gets us to the moment that we have been working towards for over 20 years. i am unbelievably proud. she has fought so long for so many years to get to this stage, and she is world number one and she is in the euro finals. it's just unbelievable. wonderful.