hello, i'm kasia madera. you're watching the context on bbc news. we are closely monitoring —— monitoring the situation in syria and have been in contact with the countries in the region. the rebels have faced very little opposition in this offensive so far. the syrian military is demoralised and exhausted after more than 13 years of conflict, but this could change. iran says it will send missiles, drones and advisers. everyone in syria at the moment are bad actors, especially- the islamists trying to gain control over syria. - if they do, just think - what would happen if isis...in the height of isis control over iraq —

welcome. the lightning advance by islamist rebels in syria continues. as they close in on the city of homs, we'll consider the implications for president assad, for iran and the wider region. the search for the killer of us insurance executive brian thompson is widened to the states of newjersey and connecticut. we'll be live in new york for the very latest. and the front runner in romania's presidential election ultra nationalist calin georgescu labels as a "coup" a court's decision to rerun the first round. we'll assess what it means for the tussle in the region between those favouring europe and russia. we start in syria, where tens of thousands of people are fleeing the city of homs as islamist rebels close in, with reports suggesting they may now be just five kilometres away.

the leader of the rebels says he wants an end to the regime of president bashar al—assad and has told minorities they will be respected. the speed at which the armed oppostion is advancing across the country appears to have taken everyone by surprise. in just ten days they have swept into aleppo, syria's second—largest city. another major city, hama, fell yesterday. the united nations says at least 370,000 people have their sites are now on homs which could cut off the road to the stronghold of president asad. the united nations says at least 370,000 people have been displaced by fighting in syria in the past ten days, most of them women and children. the rebel advance has been facilitated by assad's allies — including russia, iran and lebanon's hezbollah — all involved in fighting other conflicts. with the latest from the turkey—syrian border,

here's hugo bachega. the rebels�* advance has been swift and astonishing. yesterday, they captured hama almost unopposed. there were celebrations as they entered the city. "i can't describe my joy," this man says. "we wish that every honourable syrian can experience these happy moments." the rebels said they wouldn't stop there, and they didn't. gunfire. today, they continued to make progress towards homs. they still haven't taken the city, as the military tries to slow their progress. the civil war in syria started in 2011, when president bashar al—assad crushed protests against his regime. a rebel stronghold, homs was under siege for three years. and the last opposition forces left the city in 2015 under a deal brokered by the un.

if the rebels take homs, damascus, the capital, would be quite an easier target. the syrian army has folded. the state capacity has been degraded a great deal. the writing is on the wall. frozen for years, the front lines in syria are changing fast. this is an insurgency led by islamist rebels from a group known as hts. they have their roots in al-qaeda but are trying to rebrand themselves as a nationalist force. from their base in idlib in the northwest, they launched a surprise lightning campaign last week. they took aleppo, the country's second—largest city, and continue to push south. this is their leader, abu mohammad al—jolani. in this interview to cnn, he said the goal was to topple the assad regime and bring syrian refugees back home.

translation: people will return to their homes. - many refugees in turkey will likely return as well as a significant number of refugees in lebanon and jordan. even refugees in europe may return to rebuild their country. they are vowing to reach damascus, and bashar al—assad is struggling to stop them. in the past, he relied heavily on russia and iran to fight the opposition. but both allies are preoccupied with their own affairs. the rebels have the momentum, and the regime in powerfor 2a years is increasingly under threat. hugo bachega, bbc news, on the turkish—syrian border. in the past hour the white house press secretary gave us its perspective on the situation in syria.- its perspective on the situation in syria. we are closely monitoring - situation in syria. we are closely monitoring the i closely monitoring the situation in syria and have beenin situation in syria and have been in contact with countries in the region and the embassy put out a statementjust last weekend, the assad regime's ongoing refusal to engage in the political process outlined

in you when scr 2254. and its reliance on russia and iran created the conditions now unfolding including a collapse of the assad regime lines and north—west syria. so the united states together with its partners and allies urge de—escalation, protection of civilians and minority groups in a serious and critical political process that can and the civil war once and for all with a settlement consistent with a settlement consistent with you when scr 2254. —— un. that press briefing coming into the bbc a few moments ago the white house monitoring the situation on the ground. caroline rose is from the new lines institute think tank, where, caroline, you research defence, security and illicit trades aross the middle east and were previously in charge of the power vacuums program. is that what we are seeing on

the ground in syria? this group, hyt filling in where hezbollah and russia have left that vacuum?— hezbollah and russia have left that vacuum? absolutely thank ou for that vacuum? absolutely thank you for having _ that vacuum? absolutely thank you for having me _ that vacuum? absolutely thank you for having me on _ that vacuum? absolutely thank you for having me on to - that vacuum? absolutely thank| you for having me on to discuss offence in syria. i think absolutely that is what we are seeing. we are seeing the weakening of a syrian regime, the absence of a full—fledged support for both russia, iran and also iran aligned elements that have different degrees of their own agencies that have ultimately denied substantial support to the syrian regime to fight this offensive and defend regime held territories. also, i think there is a partial of vacuum that is left by the united states of course the united states of course the united states of course the united states is in north—east syria, but of course, there have been recent windows for isis resurgence and because of that, this is caused by —— widespread scandal to consolidate as much territory

as actors can particularly before trump takes office in january and there is an expected withdrawal of us forces from north—east syria. in terms of hyt, we know at one point the us had put them on a terrorist list, they had organically been affiliated previously with al-qaeda and had some contact with islamic state as well but have since renewed themselves and are now fighting and had previously fought al-qaeda and are sending messages to christian groups and minority groups, what kind of power structure and what kind of grouping will they be if they do manage to hold these areas? , , ., . areas? the first question which is will they _ areas? the first question which is will they be _ areas? the first question which is will they be able _ areas? the first question which is will they be able to - areas? the first question which is will they be able to retain - is will they be able to retain control over all of these areas even after potentially opposing a direct threat to the assad regime potentially taking the

reaching out and its capital, damascus. that is quite uncertain. while this was an offensive that had a lot of momentum, there is still fragility and a bit of fragmentation amongst the opposition forces. we have seen infighting between hayat tahrir al—sham and the syrian national army, the ass and a primarily backed by turkey. this could likely happen again. secondly there is the question of will hyt keep up this more moderate face at that it is putting in areas like aleppo for example where they have tried to put the electricity grid back on and resumed bus lines and assured minorities particularly religious minorities that they would not be discriminated against and targeted. there is against and targeted. there is a question of whether they will be able to keep up that moderate face while also of course trying to really consolidate control and continue their own brand of

political governance which is what we saw in north—west and live in so because of this, i think there is a lot of uncertainty that syria faces evenif uncertainty that syria faces even if it is going to be a post regime security landscape. do you know the whereabouts, what is happening with a side? is this a potential of him losing control of the country, are we there yet or is that just too far in the future? surprisingly i think we are there and one week ago i would not have said this, i think this is an offensive that really has snowballed into a movement that shows a consolidated momentum and unity for now amongst opposition forces in trying to drive out assad. initially it was an initial surprise this offensive was even able to take over aleppo sea and now of course they pushed into hama and now we are seeing regime forces

withdraw from homs in preparation and expectation of the offensive there. we are starting to see upheaval in the south which were considered the birthplace of the syrian revolution and even regime forces starting to withdraw and the north—east so it is clear the north—east so it is clear the regime is bracing itself for a direct threat to its own security and i think the opposition now that they are saying they are going to push into homs, we should believe it. they did the same in aleppo and they did the same and hama so is likely the regime could seek to evacuate from damascus particularly assad family members potentially assad himself and because of that, there could be a direct challenge to their own political continuity in syria. when i introduce you i mentioned you were researching illicit traits across the middle east and i know you have been looking at the way the assad regime has been

leveraging drug trafficking, briefly if you would give us an insight into that. lip briefly if you would give us an insight into that.— insight into that. up to this oint insight into that. up to this point since _ insight into that. up to this point since the _ insight into that. up to this point since the late - insight into that. up to this point since the late 2010s i insight into that. up to this i point since the late 2010s and early 20 20s we saw the regime adopt large—scale industrial scale production and trafficking of a drug called captagon which is an amphetamine type stimulant and really it has established this industry as one of its primary revenue generation sources and establish this as a way to bypass the effects of sanctions, international sanctions, international sanctions that have been placed upon regime individuals as well as the regime and its affiliated security and companies and different parts of that apparatus. so because of that apparatus. so because of this, i think ultimately captagon is playing a large role not only in the offensive given the fact it is a stimulant that will allow fighters to stay up and improve their own productivity and battlefield performance, but also now that the regime is directly threatened there comes

the question of will they continue to rely upon captagon production and trafficking as a way to financially sustain themselves. it is very likely as well that is the offensive pushes further south, as well as into the east of syria, likely they will take over hotspots of captagon production and trafficking potentially shutting those down and exposing the regime cosmic involvement in only six —— illicit smuggling and trafficking. illicit smuggling and traffickinu. . trafficking. fascinating insight. _ trafficking. fascinating insight, thank - trafficking. fascinating insight, thank you - trafficking. fascinating insight, thank you so l trafficking. fascinating - insight, thank you so much. much more on the offensive on syria on a website and will be back on that throughout the programme. police in new york have been scouring cctv footage and have gathered more than 200 images of the man they believe shot and killed the boss of a major health insurance company. brian thompson was arriving at a conference at the hilton hotel when he was shot in the back. nada tawfik has the latest from new york. these are the clearest pictures

of the suspected gunman. the image caught on surveillance camera shows him standing at the check—in desk at a hostel, where he reportedly shared a room with two other men. in a flirtatious moment, he pulls down his mask to show the receptionist his smile and reveals his full face. the breakthrough here at the american youth hostel on the upper west side has provided new leads into the murder of united health care ceo brian thompson. these brothers from italy say they were staying on the same floor as the suspect. it was a weird coincidence that it was exactly that night. it feels a bit crazy still, but the next day, the whole night, we had a police officer staying on our floor for our safety, or we don't know, maybe he was also waiting for him to come back. we now know that the person of interest in this case checked into this hostel using a fake id, after arriving here on a bus from a state south of the city ten days before the shooting.

this has now turned into a multistate manhunt. the fatal shooting of brian thompson in midtown manhattan just as he was about to give an investor talk felt like a scene out of a hollywood movie. it's led other major corporations to re—evaluate their safety. no one is going, like crazy, thinking that immediately, you know, this is an attack against all ce05, but it is making everyone re—evaluate. new york officials insist the investigation is on the right track. for now, though, the suspect is still at large and his identity unknown. 0ur north america correspondent john sudworth is in new york. this investigation is spreading outside of new york city. that's right. at the moment there are no breakthroughs, the suspect remains at large and it is clear from that announcement from the police that they have

not expended the sport —— search to two other states and think there is a likelihood the suspect has left the city and indeed the state. but you have to say that in the past couple of days, the advantage in terms of days, the advantage in terms of tracking him down must be shifting towards the police. they now have a huge body of evidence. manhattan behind me is one of the most filmed and photographed places on earth and the multiple images they now possess in particular the one mentioned in the previous report, taken in that hospital where the suspect was too believed to have been staying in the days leading up to the shooting, usually significant, this talk of the moment of a flirtatious moment between him and the receptionist turning out to be one of the most significant pieces of evidence they have. a clear identification of his face and evenif identification of his face and even if they are still some time away from any arrests,

surely you must conclude that they are close to identifying who he is and who it is they are looking for.— who he is and who it is they are looking for. what reaction from the insurance _ are looking for. what reaction from the insurance industry . are looking for. what reaction from the insurance industry is there? , , , from the insurance industry is there? , ,, ., there? deep shock from united healthcare. _ there? deep shock from united healthcare, mr _ there? deep shock from united healthcare, mr thompson - there