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tv   Business Today  BBC News  December 11, 2024 5:30am-6:01am GMT

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tariff plans and warns against trickle down economics. and against trickle down economics. i believe the econl leaving and i believe the economy i'm leaving at the moment — and others could do better than i did, i'm not saying i was perfect — but it ends up at this moment the best economy, the strongest economy in the world. meanwhile, the president—elect pledges to speed up permits for anyone investing a billion dollars in the us. we'll take a closer look at trumponomics 2.0. also on the programme, ramping up the stimulus. china's top leaders are set to discuss how to inject momentum into the world's second largest economy. and has fast fashion peaked? clothing giant inditex is set to report steady growth, but how can it adapt to changing consumer habits? hello and welcome. if you have justjoined us this is business
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today. i'm sally bundock. we start in the us where presidentjoe biden has been defending his economic legacy and challenged the incoming trump administration to build on his successes. speaking in washington, mr biden denounced mr trump's plans to slap high tariffs on america's biggest trading partners, mexico, canada and china. he said the republican�*s plans would be an �*economic disaster�* and that american consumers would pay the price. in a speech at the brookings institution think tank, the outgoing president said he is leaving donald trump with what he describes as "the strongest economy in modern history". after decades of trickle—down economics that primarily benefited those at the very top we have written a new book that is growing the economy, the middle out only bottom—up, it benefits everyone. this would benefits everyone. this would be the test going forward. over 16 million newjobs — newjobs,
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the most in any single presidential term in american history of the lowest average unemployment of any administration in the last 50 years. the treasury secretary janet yellen has been echoing joe biden�*s remarks, warning that president—elect donald trump's plans to levy broad import tariffs could derail progress in bringing inflation down and raise costs for households and businesses. speaking on tuesday, ms yellen said trump's plans to impose new tariffs would "raise prices significantly for american consumers and create costs pressures on companies". well, we will get the latest us inflation figures for november in a few hours�* time. analysts expect the numbers to show little change — around 2.6% to 2.7%. joining me now isjoe brusuelas, global chief economist at rsm.
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so, give us your take on what joe biden had to say about the economic legacy he leaves behind? is he writes? well, the us economy — behind? is he writes? well, the us economy is _ behind? is he writes? well, the us economy is the _ behind? is he writes? well, the us economy is the envy - behind? is he writes? well, the us economy is the envy of - behind? is he writes? well, the us economy is the envy of the i us economy is the envy of the world right now and he is leaving why the economic tailwind for the incoming president—elect and he is right to wander around the risks to the outlook due to the incoming policy changes that are going to be put forward. the us is clearly moving in a more protectionist direction and that usually does lead to two things, higher prices and is sustained over time higher inflation. �* . sustained over time higher inflation-— inflation. but that is a message _ inflation. but that is a message that - inflation. but that is a message that the - inflation. but that is a - message that the democrats inflation. but that is a _ message that the democrats were pushing ahead of the election. kamala harris and others were pointing out if donald trump goes ahead with the tariffs he is promising it will cost you at home and yet people felt the economy was in safe hands with the trump administration. another because of the cost of living anxiety that followed the shocks of the pandemic and
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the shocks of the pandemic and the price shock that the biden administration could not surmount regardless of how strong the economy is, regardless of the fact we are at full employment, and regardless of the fact that wages have been rising above inflation of 18 months, they just didn�*t get it done, we�*re going to have a new president. if we get inflation numbers today and there was what will they look like and what will inflation do in the next 12 months, do you think? 50 months, do you think? so inflation _ months, do you think? so inflation is _ months, do you think? sr inflation is firming right now. primarily due to robust demand for us services. service act inflation is sticky and stubborn. —— service sector. we might see for the first time in a long time goods just inflation turn a memo to piggabeen that due to the increase of the price of used cars. because mr trump is talking about it this is something we want to take seriously because of you start to increase import taxes on motor vehicles and part,
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something that will resound both in terms of goods prices and service prices via an insurance channel, that would be very different. you will see a very tense increase month over month —— 216. 2.7 year over month —— 216. 2.7 year over year, over month —— 216. 2.7 year overyear, my over month —— 216. 2.7 year over year, my sense is the cpi drops 2.3— 2.4 and we will see the policy target that the fed uses, the pce, coming just above 2% of the next 12 months. but, and this is really important, we think inflation will re— accelerate on the back side of this due to the structural changes going on in the global economy and partially driven by mr trump�*s terrorist policies. stan; partially driven by mr trump's terrorist policies.— terrorist policies. stay with us. i'm terrorist policies. stay with us- i'm going _ terrorist policies. stay with us. i'm going to _ terrorist policies. stay with us. i'm going to talk - terrorist policies. stay with us. i'm going to talk to - terrorist policies. stay with j us. i'm going to talk to you us. i�*m going to talk to you further in a moment. so do stay with us, joe. thank you for now. let�*s look at financial markets. wall street�*s main indexes closed lower on tuesday with us stock markets seeing their first back to back declines in almost a month. this as investors await that key inflation data. let�*s bring injoshua mahony,
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chief market analyst at scope markets. hello to you. these inflation numbers come out todayjust ahead of the fed�*s final meeting of the year, which is next week. meeting of the year, which is next week-— next week. exactly. legacy question— next week. exactly. legacy question mark _ next week. exactly. legacy question mark is _ next week. exactly. legacy question mark is one - next week. exactly. legacy question mark is one of. next week. exactly. legacy| question mark is one of the federal reserve going to do. in actualfact there is federal reserve going to do. in actual fact there is great optimism that we will see the fed card rates this time around. but it is going to be the pace of easing that is more of a concern, certainly we have seen a significant shift in the wake of donald trump�*s victory towards a slow approach from the federal reserve and that really comes with a view that
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donald trump is going to be inflationary in terms of his policies. whether they come to pass and not remains to be seen, but certainly from a market perspective the big moves have been coming from, yes, we have seen some big moves and some of the trump trades, say, crypto, but strength in terms of the us dollar as you see the differential between interest—rate expectations in the us impaired against some of the us impaired against some of the regions such as the eurozone and that�*s really been impacting the dollar stop in terms of equity markets, yes, we have seen a pullback this week, primarily coming off the back of friday�*s stronger than expected jobs report which also saw a higher wage components. but, you know, a few days of weakness isn�*t the end of the world, certainly set within such a bullish trend and potentially setting us up for that famous santa rally at the back end of the year.- back end of the year. yes, do love the _ back end of the year. yes, do love the santa _ back end of the year. yes, do love the santa rally - back end of the year. yes, do j love the santa rally moment. they feel we are all getting into the festive spirit. thank you for now, joshua. joshua
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mahony there. meanwhile, donald trump has continued to announce some of the economic policies he will enact when in office. on tuesday he pledged to speed up permits for anyone investing a billion dollars or more in the us. our north america correspondent michelle fleury has more from new york. the national environmental policy act requires federal agencies to conduct reviews before approving energy production and infrastructure projects like pipelines and highways. donald trump�*s promised to speed up these environmental reviews for those who invest $1 billion comes after he promised on the campaign trailto after he promised on the campaign trail to boost america�*s domestic energy industry and bring down costs. he didn�*t provide any details on how his administration would help investors secure these approvals, but many companies and corporate lobby groups have complained about the length of time that these reviews can take, saying they create lengthy and expensive delays. environmental activists were
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dismayed. the sierra club said in a statement this. adding this. this is perhaps one of the earliest efforts we have seen so far from the trump administration, both on the environment front and on the deregulation effort. we bring backjoe brusuelas from rsm. interesting to see this move in the part of speeding up permits, you just have to invest $1 billion or more into the us economy, simple as that stop so, the reformers about streamlining the process to obtain government authorisation to invest both in energy and infrastructure.— invest both in energy and infrastructure. ., ., ., , ., infrastructure. now, that has a uniuue infrastructure. now, that has a unique meaning _ infrastructure. now, that has a unique meaning in _ infrastructure. now, that has a unique meaning in the - unique meaning in the development of financial markets here in the united states. it�*s notjust about
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basic energy or infrastructure, it�*s increasingly going to become about artificial intelligence. energy infrastructure and ai data centres, this will be the core of the us economy going forward likely to be one of the biggest drivers of growth and productivity. that�*s why this has bipartisan reform inside the united states. i�*m not surprised mr trump is actually leading off with something that will be both popular with his base and actually on the democratic party�*s business side. they want to reiterate this, this has broad bipartisan support stop this is a good idea. it will anger some in the environmental movement but this is something that is going to push forward.— push forward. interestingly, i'm push forward. interestingly, i'm looking _ push forward. interestingly, i'm looking at _ push forward. interestingly, i'm looking at comments i push forward. interestingly, i'm looking at comments of| i�*m looking at comments of david solomon at goldman sachs the chief executive, he has saying "ceos across the us corporate landscape say they would say that in the last few
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years that the regulatory environment was a headwind to growth and investments." he is saying they�*re looking forward to a more growth the kind of playbook. that is a quote. for enever josema _ playbook. that is a quote. fr?" eneverjosema energy and infrastructure that is due, for others and being told that leverages now beginning to pick up leverages now beginning to pick up and conditions are right, liquidity is going to be moving into the big companies and you will see a big business buyers early in the trump administration in order to push these projects. fik. administration in order to push these projects-— these projects. 0k. joe brusuelas, _ these projects. 0k. joe brusuelas, thanks - these projects. 0k. joe brusuelas, thanks for l these projects. 0k. joe i brusuelas, thanks for your these projects. 0k. joe - brusuelas, thanks for your time today. see you again soon. thank you. let�*s stay in the us, artificial intelligence has become one of the hottest sectors for investment but has the bull market for all things ai actually turned into a bubble that�*s about to burst? ritika gupta has been talking to the boss of c3 ai, tom siebel. his company makes enterprise software, the software companies use to manage everything from customer relations to production schedules. he predicts ai will expand the market for that software
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dramatically. well, this ai phenomenon is not a femoral and is not small. we look at enterprise ai, this is estimated to be a $2 trillion software market, this will be the largest software market we have seen in the history of enterprise software —— ephemeral. so this is very real, big, and it is being reflected in the evaluation of ai stocks and particularly people who make the infrastructure for al. if you look at al _ infrastructure for al. if you look at al overall - infrastructure for al. if you look at al overall and - infrastructure for al. if you look at al overall and the i look at al overall and the amount of money that is pouring in do you think ai investment is a bubble that is going to burst anytime soon? bi is a bubble that is going to burst anytime soon? ai stocks like open _ burst anytime soon? ai stocks like open al. _ burst anytime soon? ai stocks like open ai, think _ burst anytime soon? ai stocks like open ai, think it - burst anytime soon? ai stocks like open ai, think it is - like open ai, think it is insane. am i on top of this market? i am insane. am i on top of this market? iam not. they insane. am i on top of this market? i am not. they say markets can remain irrational longer than rational investors
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can remain solvent, but, you know, this could run for a while but some of these company valuations are incredibly frothy. valuations are incredibly froth . ~ , valuations are incredibly froth. ~ , ., frothy. when it comes to software _ frothy. when it comes to software stocks - frothy. when it comes to software stocks they - frothy. when it comes to | software stocks they have frothy. when it comes to - software stocks they have been really overlooked when it comes to the ai race, with much more of a focus on the semiconductor stocks. but now with those fears of potential tariffs and semiconductor stocks getting caught in the crosshairs of a potential trade war under the trump administration do you think that�*s going to change the game for software stocks so that maybe they are going to gain some more dominance in winning that al race? i gain some more dominance in winning that al race?- winning that al race? i think it is a bit — winning that al race? i think it is a bit speculative - winning that al race? i think it is a bit speculative at - winning that al race? i think it is a bit speculative at the | it is a bit speculative at the moment, we�*ll see whether that plays or not. what is certain is whether we look at the mainframe market, minicomputer market, personal computer market, personal computer market, cellphone market, all of these markets and initially all the value was in the silicon, the intel, and the operating system, very little was in the applications. today if we look at the pc that is an
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average person�*s desk maybe a couple of hundred dollars a year of that is in silicon. does the intel even matter anymore? a couple of hundred dollars a year is in infrastructure and, you $8,000 a year is in the applications running on those business pcs. this is the same way it will work out in al.— this is the same way it will work out in al. when we think of demand — work out in al. when we think of demand for _ work out in al. when we think of demand for al _ work out in al. when we think of demand for al from - work out in al. when we think of demand for al from your i of demand for al from your customers one of the big spenders is the federal government orders. do you expect that to continue under the trump administration? i�*m thinking about the incoming administration when you have the department of government efficiency, how do you see that? i efficiency, how do you see that? 4' , ., that? i think there is no question _ that? i think there is no question with _ that? i think there is no question with the - that? i think there is no | question with the people that? i think there is no - question with the people that president trump is bringing into the cabinet and the people advising him on technological issues that they will be taking more advantage of advanced technologies to provide, you know, high—quality government
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services at lower costs into the hands of more satisfied constituents and that means, you know, increase growth in the ai market. hard stop. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.
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this is business today. i�*m sally bundock. on to the world�*s second biggest economy. it�*s been a tricky week for chinese economic data. on monday, figures showed consumer inflation weakening to a five month low and yesterday the latest trade data showed a sharp slowdown in exports in november along with an unexpected fall in imports. this all despite the $1.4 trillion package of stimulus measures announced last month aimed at reviving china�*s flagging economy. this will be weighing heavily on the minds of policy makers as they gather today for the annual china economic work conference.
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let�*s head over to our asia business hub and suranjana tewari is there. hello. tell us more about this event. , , , , event. yes, sally, this is the annual economic _ event. yes, sally, this is the annual economic work - event. yes, sally, this is the i annual economic work meeting, as you mentioned it is to map out policies for the next year. leaders have already hinted at more forceful stimulus. we have already had a package this year and that�*s because china is still in an economic slowdown. the property crisis is still a problem and there is low spending, and the other is the threat of a potential trade war with donald trump coming into the presidency in the us. now, this is a two day meeting, is expected to run through thursday, and it typically gathers some central government and provincial leaders along with the heads of state owned financial institutions and companies. we are sensing, as i mentioned, a bit of change in tone with official signalling on monday that they are ready to deploy whatever stimulus is
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needed to counter the impact of expected us trade tariffs on it next year�*s economic growth. top communist party officials, which are known as the politburo warmaking, and officials say they would switch to an appropriately loose monetary sense and more proactive fiscal options. this is a big difference from a previous more cautious stance which the central bank has pretty much held for the past 14 years. it has been a growth in china is a big concern. debt is high across governments, households, and companies as well. and of course china is seeking that 5% growth rate. some people say that�*s too ambitious, china�*s officials say it is still feasible and they are looking for that 5% growth next year. they are looking for that 596 growth next year.— growth next year. 0k, suranjana, _ growth next year. 0k, suranjana, thank - growth next year. 0k, suranjana, thank you | growth next year. 0k, - suranjana, thank you very growth next year. 0k, suranjana, thank you very much. let�*s speak now to the independent economist andy xie who�*s in shanghai.
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hello, andy. what will be discussed at this conference? i think the economic works conference is about policy intent, not about policy details. i think the challenge is still how to kind of prevent a further slowdown in the economy. 5% is probably good enough. to stabilise the government further the government further the government probably needs to increase fiscal stimulus (indistinct) that is 23% of gdp. so they have some cards to play. gdp. so they have some cards to .la . gdp. so they have some cards to play. something that economists have been saying _ play. something that economists have been saying to _ play. something that economists have been saying to me - play. something that economists have been saying to me for - play. something that economists have been saying to me for a - have been saying to me for a long, long time is china needs to do more economic stimulus. i hear it over and over again. and they have introduced quite a few measures but it�*s not doing the trick yet, is it? i
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think the key is china is in structural adjustment. the property market is changed course and its unwinding is inevitable and the economy has to adjust. i think in recent reality we should not be too ambitious going forward, 4—5% is very good. but ambitious going forward, 4-5% is very good-— is very good. but what about the problem _ is very good. but what about the problem of _ is very good. but what about the problem of youth - the problem of youth unemployment, because young people, especially those who are aspirational with regard to careers, finding that at the moment there just isn�*t a future in china. i moment there just isn't a future in china.— moment there just isn't a future in china. i think china is a manufacturing _ future in china. i think china is a manufacturing economy| future in china. i think china - is a manufacturing economy and white—collarjobs are not so much in a service —based economy and china has 70% of youth go to college and expect white—collarjobs. i think that�*s a bit unrealistic. so,
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assume a lot of people need to adjust their expectations going forward. college enrolment has really to come down. the economy cannot absorb 70%. so i think it has to come down in the coming years. so the solution is we need to adjust expectations. it�*s solution is we need to ad'ust expectationsfi expectations. it's really challenging _ expectations. it's really challenging and - expectations. it's really . challenging and fascinating expectations. it's really - challenging and fascinating to see it unfold. andy xie, thank you forjoining us. it�*s been another challenging year for the retail industry. the cost of living crisis continues to affect spending and issues with supply chains is also still impacting retailers. one clothing brand though that seems to buck the trend is inditex, which owns brands such as zara, pull & bear, and bershka. the company will report its third quarter results injust over an hour�*s time and they should show steady growth.
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but is there a new challenge on the horizon? are consumers changing their habits and moving on from fast fashion. last month we heard from the boss of the company behind global fashion chain uniqlo, who told us he thought fast fashion has peaked. translation: i don't think there is translation: | don't think there is a — translation: i don't think there is a future _ translation: i don't think there is a future for- translation: i don't think there is a future for fast - there is a future for fast fashion, producing close without any careful considerations which you can only wearfor one season. considerations which you can only wear for one season. that is a waste of the planet�*s resources. you can wear uniqlo for many seasons, the sweater that ayane wearing today, have no idea how old they are —— that ayane wearing. i�*m joined now by the fashion journalistjulia robson. good morning, julia. that is the boss of uniqlo, he wants us to move on from vice—versa because that is his interest, what you see happening in retail? ~ �* , ., .,
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retail? well, it's tough out there and _ retail? well, it's tough out there and there _ retail? well, it's tough out there and there are - retail? well, it's tough out there and there are a - retail? well, it's tough out there and there are a lot i retail? well, it's tough out| there and there are a lot of companies such as boo—hoo that we think of and pretty little things that have released figures and are not doing very well but i don�*t see any change in fast fashion at the moment because until the consumer doesn�*t want to buy ariana grande a weekend or any sort of trends that we consider to be exciting new or different, the consumer is so used to being able to purchase something quite quickly, it is the trends that are moving so quickly. —— wicked. the business model is changing to reflect a more thoughtful consumer, but for the moment she�*s still loves her zara. the moment she's still loves her zara-— her zara. inditex has always bucked the _ her zara. inditex has always bucked the trend, _ her zara. inditex has always bucked the trend, we - her zara. inditex has always bucked the trend, we look. her zara. inditex has always | bucked the trend, we look at the results when they come out and most times i�*m talking about them doing, you know, in line with expectations if not
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better, whereas other rivals are struggling more than inditex. how does inditex get things right?— things right? well, they very much focus _ things right? well, they very much focus on _ things right? well, they very much focus on trends - things right? well, they very much focus on trends at - things right? well, they very much focus on trends at an l much focus on trends at an affordable price. they are not cheap — cheap, unlike shine where price is the marketing tool, but zara have it right they have consistent trends, they have consistent trends, they produce a value for money, which in a cost—of—living crisis really makes sense, they have a very good business model. —— shein. if you look at their websites and look at what they�*re doing on sustainability they�*re doing on sustainability they are addressing it and they have all these key target. so the customer thinks that actually they are aware it�*s not as bad as some of the other fashion companies out there. and that�*s really important, isn�*t it, because the consumer
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isn�*t it, because the consumer is becoming more and more aware of these things, would you argue? of these things, would you an ue? , , ., ~' of these things, would you araue? , i. ~ ., argue? yes. if you think what happened _ argue? yes. if you think what happened in _ argue? yes. if you think what happened in the _ argue? yes. if you think what happened in the food - argue? yes. if you think what| happened in the food industry about 20—25 years ago, the same will be happening in fashion. so, customers want to know where everything is from. the textile industry has quite a lot of different components, so you have the textiles, you know, where is the textile front, who is making the clothes? i think that�*s a very key component, especially when you have seven exports from china. �* , , you have seven exports from china. , , china. absolutely, the supply chain is so — china. absolutely, the supply chain is so important. - china. absolutely, the supply chain is so important. julia, l chain is so important. julia, thank you for getting up early. have a very good day. julia robson there, fashion journals. we will have inditex numbers later this morning. they will update when they come out. that is all from me and business today, see you soon. hello there. for many of us, tuesday was dominated by lots of grey skies, lots of cloud across the uk.
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for the central belt of scotland, it was fog, which persisted in glasgow all day, and as a result, the temperature for most of the day didn�*t get above —i celsius. so, freezing fog, and we start off wednesday with some of that fog, once again. temperatures overnight as low as —8 celsius, so a cold start to wednesday. for england, wales, more cloud here, so temperatures are about three to six celsius, but throughout wednesday, we keep this area of high pressure. this is what we�*ve seen throughout the day on monday and tuesday, really, so not a great deal of change to what you experience outside, the freezing fog likely to continue across some parts of central and southern scotland. sunshine elsewhere across scotland, except the northern isles, where there�*s a bit of rain here. maybe a few brighter skies in northern ireland, the far north of england. elsewhere, though, it remains pretty cloudy on wednesday afternoon. for many of us, temperatures about six to eight celsius. colder than that across scotland, especially where you keep that fog. so, in glasgow, for example, again, the temperature may not get above freezing. now, through wednesday night, the temperatures fall away again pretty quickly across scotland, with those clear skies, fog just turning more dense, again, in some central areas,
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more cloud elsewhere, and once again, that will keep temperatures above freezing, about 6 or 7 celsius, just the frost limited to the far north and the east of scotland. now, during thursday, there�*ll perhaps be a bit more cloud across scotland. the best of the brightness towards the north and the east, still some fog patches as well. quite cloudy for northern ireland, through most of england and wales. we may just see a few spots of rain affecting eastern areas of england through the day on thursday, but temperatures once again fairly typical for the time of year, but i suspect it won�*t feel all that nice — quite cold beneath that cloud. on into the end of the week, we�*ll see a weather front moving south and eastwards across the uk, before high pressure then starts to build in for the weekend, and the air comes in from a different direction, actually, as we go through sunday, so you notice that the oranges come into our map, so the milder, south—westerly winds for the end of the weekend, and that means temperatures will rise quite significantly, actually, so you can see there on friday and saturday, still in single figures. by sunday, we�*ll be in double figures, and there�*ll be a bit of sunshine around, as well,
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over the course of the weekend. bye— bye.
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good morning and welcome to breakfast with sally nugent and jon kay. our headlines today. unions attack the recommended pay rise of 2,8% for more than a million public sector workers, putting them on collision course with the government. a ten—year plan to tackle prison overcrowding — with four newjails delivering thousands more cells. the women and girls left to endure years of pain, due to a lack of awareness about female health — a new report describes it as �*medical misogyny�*. people who've been paid too much carers allowance without realising it now owe the government more than £250 million. i'll explain how it's happened and what to do about it. saudi arabia is set to be - announced as host of the 2034 men's football world cup. that's despite the country facing | years of scrutiny over its human| rights and environmental record.
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