tv The Context BBC News December 12, 2024 8:00pm-8:31pm GMT
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the people joining this march. the peoplejoining this march. situation is a wound the people joining this march. situation is a wound tha' will the situation is a wound that will continue to bleed until we can resolve and answer the questions that remain unanswered. we want to avoid sparking any kinds of additional conflicts inside of syria at a time when we want to see this transition to an interim government, into a better way forward for syria. we have as, a government, a laser focus on the role - that we can play with allies to see a stable, peaceful . transition so that the syriansl get the government that they need for the future. shamima begum and 65 british nationals linked to islamic state are still detained in prisons and camps in north—east syria. but the kurds who guard them, are under regular assault from turkish backed rebel groups in the north. what future is there
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for the kurds in syria. will their rights be protected? and what risks does that pose to security here in europe. also tonight emmanuel macron cuts short a visit to poland. who will be the new french prime minister? and later in the programme — ai decoded. from var to semi automated decision making. is it the future of the beautiful game? the us secretary of state antony blinken is in ankara tonight, for high level talks with president erdogan. there is one aspect of the emerging power struggle under way in syria on which the two countries have notably clashed. and that is the role of the kurdish led, syrian democratic forces. the united states has been protecting the kurds of north and eastern syria since the overthrow of isis and its base in raqqa in 2017. but what the us air force was protecting the kurds from, was not the isis itself, nor even assad's forces.
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they were shielding them, from washington's nato ally, turkey. when — washington's nato ally, turkey. when washin-ton's nato ally, turkey. it comes to what i happening when it comes to what is happening in the north—east, look. — happening in the north—east, look, turkey has a real and clear— look, turkey has a real and clear interest particularly when _ clear interest particularly when it _ clear interest particularly when it comes to the pkk and terrorism _ when it comes to the pkk and terrorism which is an enduring threat — terrorism which is an enduring threat to— terrorism which is an enduring threat to turkey. at the same time, — threat to turkey. at the same time, we _ threat to turkey. at the same time, we want to avoid sparking any kinds — time, we want to avoid sparking any kinds of additional conflicts inside of syria at a time — conflicts inside of syria at a time when we want to see this transition _ time when we want to see this transition to an interim government, into a better way forward — government, into a better way forward for syria and part of that — forward for syria and part of that also _ forward for syria and part of that also has to be ensuring isis that also has to be ensuring isis does— that also has to be ensuring isis does not rear its ugly head _ isis does not rear its ugly head again and critical to making _ head again and critical to making sure that does not happen— making sure that does not happen is the so—called syrians democratic forces that we have been _ democratic forces that we have been supporting. for many years president erdo an has been supporting the rebel syrian national army which worked with other groups including hts to topple assad.
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but he has long viewed the kurdish sdf, which controls the north and the east, as an extension of turkey's kurdistan workers party, the pkk in turkey both are listed as terrorist organisations. until the negotiated ceasefire earlier this week, the turkish backed groups were bombing kurdish areas around manbij near the border and in the oil rich city of deir ezzor on the euphrates. hts quickly took control, a move the united states did not oppose. it is not clear whether washington will withrdraw the 900 troops it has in syria and abandon the kurds altogether. maybe that is part of secretary blinken's discussions in ankara tonight. but it does major implications for europe. because here are thousands of isis fighters and their families still being held in ne syria, under the guard of the kurdish sdf and us forces. we will talk about the kurds specifically in a second. joby warrick is the national security reporter for the washington post. he has written two books on syria and
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the downfall of assad. one of them titled �*black flags: the rise of isis�*. you are very welcome to the programme. you are very welcome to the programme-— you are very welcome to the programme._ thej programme. thank you. the unknown — programme. thank you. the unknown factor _ programme. thank you. the unknown factor in _ programme. thank you. the unknown factor in all - programme. thank you. the unknown factor in all of - programme. thank you. the unknown factor in all of this| unknown factor in all of this is that we don't know what donald trump is going to do with the remnants of the us force that is still in syria. is there a very serious risk that if the kurds are abandoned than those fighters that are in these isys camps will get out and will become a problem for the greater peace in syria? i the greater peace in syria? i wish i could say dismissively that would not happen but we cannot be assured of that and the reason for that is the last time trump was in office he very nearly pulled the plug on those us deployments in eastern syria. he had a conversation with erdogan in 2015 and erdogan made a case that the turks can control the northern border in there was no reason
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for the americans to be there and donald trump seem to be fixated on the possibility that the americans could somehow get the americans could somehow get the oil resources in eastern syria should belong to the west and that seemed to be his priority and he was very ready at the time to do a withdrawal and he was talked down comes advisers at the time told him it was not a good idea there were all kinds of bad things that could happen including a resurgence of isis and of course the betrayal of these kurdish forces that we've been protecting for so long. so ultimately he came back from that but i think it is still a possibility and that is a part of what we are getting in the year is coming ahead with the trump administration is this a bit of unpredictability and we are not sure which way he will ultimately go.— are not sure which way he will ultimately go. there are some arts of ultimately go. there are some parts of eastern _ ultimately go. there are some parts of eastern syria - ultimately go. there are some parts of eastern syria which i parts of eastern syria which are pretty remote, what sort of condition are isis in at the moment, do they have access to weapons, happy machinery? == weapons, happy machinery? -- hea . weapons, happy machinery? -- heavy- they _ weapons, happy machinery? -- heavy. they have been on a rebound that we know this from
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various authorities including the pentagon who have seen a doubling in the tempo of isis strikes or attacks linked to isis cells. that has been coming back. the reason is because syria through the government has been less and less able to be controlling that part of syria as you say it is very remote and sparsely populated desert villages so government control has never been great there and where there is a government controlled these groups tend to come back. they have local support and where they do not, they can sometimes gain it through intimidation by attacking police stations and tribal leaders and so we have seen this creeping movement over the last couple of years at least of isis coming back. i must note the one other danger in eastern syria are these huge prisons. 0ne in eastern syria are these huge prisons. one that has something like 10,000 seasons isis fighters under, concentrated in a small area and isis would love to get those comrades back and that is something we are afraid they may try to do. some
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of those prisoners _ afraid they may try to do. some of those prisoners had - afraid they may try to do. some of those prisoners had been - of those prisoners had been repatriated to their home countries but there is a very active debate which you may not know about here in the uk regarding shamima begum who was 15 and went off to be a bride for islamic state and denied her british citizenship. we just heard from pat mcadam at the top of the programme who said we will do whatever we can to ensure stability in syria, do you think there will be pressure on european governments to take back the britons that are there in the camps in order that they can close down these camps and move on? , , , ~' ., , on? the pressure i think may increase if— on? the pressure i think may increase if it _ on? the pressure i think may increase if it looks _ on? the pressure i think may increase if it looks likes - on? the pressure i think may increase if it looks likes the l increase if it looks likes the sdf, the kurdish forces lose some of their control in the area. that is the wild card. understandable that european countries including britain would have reservations about taking some of these people back, that is just self protection. 0n the other hand this is a problem that is not going away and if there is a
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degradation of security in eastern syria than these people mayjust be let loose, the easier for the safer alternative may just easier for the safer alternative mayjust be to quickly repatriate some of those individuals. when we can. in some cases there are individuals who have no passports, there are children that have been born under isis and don't have passports at all so there are a lot of details to be worked out for sure. didn't have your expertise this evening. thank you very much. —— good to have. under assad, the kurds were had no representation at all. in fact hundreds of thousands of them were denied syrian identity papers. although assad did tolerate a militant kurdish presence inside syria's borders. an irritant to president erdogan, who would appear at this moment, to be the big winnerfrom the weekends big developments. we will get a view from mount bloomfield who was a journalist and a syria researcher who wrote an article the other day
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which piqued my interest in this map. 100,000 kurds have already been displaced in the last round of fighting, just this past week, not the fault of hts as it turns out because as we know they have promised to respect local minorities. these are rather ankara backed militias taking advantage of the chaos of what is the objective of erdogan at this point? objective of erdogan at this oint? , ., , . objective of erdogan at this oint? , .,, . ., point? his ob'ective in syria is simple — point? his objective in syria is simple and _ point? his objective in syria is simple and into _ point? his objective in syria is simple and into every - point? his objective in syria i is simple and into every means the same to liquidate the kurdish presidents on his order to establish a 20 mile deep buffer zone which would involve the deconstruction of the federation that has been able to survive there for the past ten years and the further ethnic cleansing of the kurdish minority populations in particular so christians and others as erdogan installs in their place the syria national army who in contrast to the
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relatively discipline hts are violent, criminal, unconcerned and many never fired a shot in ankara against assad but are hell—bent on seizing territory from the kurdish population. it's a particular position that hundreds of thousands in kurds in syria now find themselves in. underassad in syria now find themselves in. under assad and there was no love lost for him, quite clearly, they had no representation, but in this new reality the semi—autonomous area of the country that they were running is now open to question. and there is the risk yet again that the kurds are destabilised and end up with no say at all on the areas in which they live. absolutely. saddam hussein _ which they live. absolutely. saddam hussein did - which they live. absolutely. saddam hussein did not. which they live. absolutely. | saddam hussein did not the kurdish identity and conducted a genocide against them and assad denied them the kurdish identity and now erdogan is trying to repeat the same policy. the kurds are serious and have been there for a very long time and they would love to be celebrating right now and
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have been celebrated and have been going into those areas formerly under the control of assad and have been tearing down statues and they have raised the flag of the new free syria over the territory but unfortunately, erdogan sees things differently. the americans and most onlookers to the conflicts want peace. the kurds want peace and are ready for talks, they are in negotiations with hts and want to find the settlement for syrians but one thing stands in the way that is the turkey of erdogan and unfortunately for the kurds and those interested in a peaceful negotiated settlement in syria, erdogan holds all the cards and it looks like it will not watch out for that reason.- looks like it will not watch out for that reason. just on that point. _ out for that reason. just on that point, intelligence - out for that reason. just on | that point, intelligence were in damascus today and intelligence chief was there while the secretary of state antony blinken was talking to president erdogan so that tells you they are the real power broken at the moment inside damascus. broken at the moment inside damascus— broken at the moment inside damascus. , damascus. -- power broker. the turkish relationship _
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damascus. -- power broker. the turkish relationship with - damascus. -- power broker. the turkish relationship with hts - turkish relationship with hts the dominant force of is taken over damascus is complex, you can call them for enemies. their objectives don't always exactly align but hts will pragmatically recognise that turkey is the force which maintains the presence throughout northern syria, they share a long border with turkey and through turkey they can access trade and the outside world. and turkey 1533 00:12:2
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