french officials say there could be a high numbers of casualties. five people are killed in shootings in northern france — including four near a camp for migrants close to dunkirk. a 22—year—old man has turned himself in. and abc news is to pay $15 million to donald trump for libel to settle a lawsuit over comments by one of its hosts. the money will go towards funding the trump presidential library. now on bbc news — talking business. hello and welcome to talking business. let's take a look at what's on the show this week. as millions turn to weight—loss jabs to fight the fat, could the drugs have a heavy impact on the world of business? everyone wants to be thinner. everyone wants to be, you know, prettier. everyone wants to be more, more, more, and we all

want it immediately. i keep seeing a lot about it on social media. i'm noticing a lot of people that have recently struggled with their weight and have now suddenly dropped, and they've admitted that that is how they are doing it. the drugs maker novo nordisk, the name behind ozempic and wegovy, is now europe's most valuable company. so how could food, exercise, cosmetics and weight—loss brands all be shaken up by these new drugs? i'll find out from barclays' head of european pharmaceutical research — that's emily field — and the research director to some of the world's biggest blue chip companies, toby clark of mintel consulting. plus, later in the show, our big boss is polina veksler, the co—founder and chief executive of universal standard. it makes clothes for those who are size zero to size a0. is the jab juggernaut simply hype or a real game—changer with trillion dollar consequences? wherever you'rejoining us from, welcome to the programme. now, in 1983, a married couple, jenny and sid craig, opened their first weight—loss centre in melbourne, australia.

wherever you'rejoining us from, welcome to the programme. now, in 1983, a married couple, jenny and sid craig, opened their first weight—loss centre in melbourne, australia. it grew to be a global company with 700 slimming clubs and a food brand so big that nestle bought it for $600 million. well, last year, after changing hands a few more times, jenny craig filed for bankruptcy. all its employees were let go and the brand name was sold once more. asjenny craig collapsed, the world of weight loss was being revolutionised. in 2018, the drug ozempic was approved to treat diabetes in europe. three years later, the company that makes it, novo nordisk, gained approval in the

united states to sell wegovy. it's a higher dose of the same ingredient that's in ozempic, but this one would treat obesity. the rush for the drugs was unexpected, as one of the bosses of novo nordisk told the bbc earlier this year. this demand in the market for glp—1, both in diabetes and obesity, hasjust stepped up much more than we ever forecasted. and by the way, much more than anyone forecasted. meanwhile, in the united states, a rival suite of drugs from pharmaceutical giant eli lilly were approved. mounjaro, in 2022, to treat diabetes, and zepbound, in 2023, for obesity. novo nordisk has not been fazed by the competition, though. first and foremost, in this industry, when we talk about obesity, then all the market potential is so big that there's more than enough space for two or even more competitors. so that's the starting point. and then, in the pharmaceutical industry, this is really competition on innovation.

so what exactly do these drugs do? the main ingredient is called semaglutide or tirzepatide. they both act on a receptor in the body called glp—1. it basically makes you feel fuller for longer and helps regulate insulin and blood sugar in the body, hence its original use for diabetes. in 2023, semaglutides were the biggest—selling class of drugs in the united states. around $14 billion worth were given. it's estimated that in the us alone, 137 million people could be eligible for the drug. there are forecasts that the global market for these drugs by 2029 will be worth $126 billion. and this is just the legitimate market. demand is such that an underground market has emerged, with increasingly dangerous consequences. michelle sword, from 0xfordshire in england, is just one victim of what's become a dangerous gamble.

itjust seemed to then be all over the social media sites. like, it was on instagram, facebook, and i was scrolling through, going, well, these beauty companies and these online aesthetic companies, they all seem to have it. so i started asking a couple of questions online and managed to get hold of one company who said that they could deliver it immediately. so the medication came through the post, as it normally does. i had a look at it. everything looked completely identical to what i'd had before. the same box, the same packaging. i felt very disorientated, really, really woozy, starting to feel very confused, like i was forgetting what i was doing. i was talking to my daughter and she was talking back to me, but then i'd forget what we were talking about. and she was...she noticed i didn't look right and i said, "i really don't feel very good. "i feel a little bit dizzy. "i think it's best if i go and lie down." i slumped over and sort of slid down, and that was when i began losing consciousness. so she then became, you know, quite hysterical on the phone,

and she decided to call 999 at that point. i was completely unconscious. i was unresponsive. they came in. they quickly tried to assess themselves to see what was going on. my daughter had noticed the pen in the fridge and when she showed them that, i think that's when all the... everything sort of like connected and they realised what was going on. they knew it was something to do with this medication. well, michelle had clearly been sent something very different to what she thought she was buying. now we should be clear, we're a business programme, not a medical or a health one. and so all these medications should be taken under the supervision of a qualified medic. they'll tell you if you need it, about any side effects, and make sure that you're taking it safely. but even with the real

authenticjabs, there are reports of some side effects, like nausea or vomiting. yet millions are taking the drugs, and it's predicted that many millions more will start. so what impact could it have on a whole range of other businesses? my first guest is the head of european pharmaceutical equity research at barclays. emily field, welcome to the programme. it's good to have you with us. now, give me your assessment. in your experience, have you ever seen a class of drugs launch to such fanfare and such impact? no. and i think that's for a number of reasons. one is just the sheer number of people that are eligible for these. everyone knows nearly 40% of the united states qualifies as obese, so it's millions and millions and millions of people. and then secondly, what's so different about this particular class of drug is that normally you don't want to be taking a drug. it's generally because you have some sort of ailment. whereas this, obviously, we're moving towards obesity being considered as a disease. but people are seeking these out, whether it be for health reasons, aesthetic reasons, or any reason at all.

so it's certainly multifactorial that this is unlike anything we've ever seen on our side. and your research suggests that it's notjust the science and the medical, maybe, benefits. social media played a really big role here, too. what did you find? that's something that really surprised all of us, because these drugs have been available for type two diabetes for quite some time. however, once they were approved in obesity, itjust started to become a social media phenomenon where people started documenting their weight—loss journey. venues like tiktok and instagram, and itjust spread like wildfire after that, through word of mouth. and if we look at the two big players, it's novo nordisk in denmark, isn't it, now europe's biggest company... yeah. ..and eli lilly in the united states, the really big players in this game. just how dominant are they here? how much of a lead have they got? we think that they're, you know, miles ahead of the competition for a couple of reasons.

the first of which is that, you know, obesity obviously is a huge space and we all know it now, but it was a little bit of a pharmaceutical graveyard in that, you know, either drugs just didn't work well enough or they had side effects such that they were too dangerous for people to use. so a lot of companies abandoned the field, whereas novo and lilly continued to pursue drugs for diabetes and obesity. and so they're really far ahead in terms of the innovation gap, just because this is their bread and butter, they've been working on it for a long time. and then secondly, for now, all of the drugs that work the best come in an injectable pen. so that is a pretty complex manufacturing process as opposed to making a pill. so both novo and lilly have invested billions and billions of dollars in building out their manufacturing network. so it's both of those factors that gives them a pretty significant lead over some of these other companies who've tried to enter the market in more recent months. and we tend to describe them, don't we, as wonder drugs. the reality is there are various different versions, and there's new iterations coming all the time to treat

very specific needs. how important is that in terms of building this market and getting this drug to even more people? in terms of proving that these drugs have health benefits and result in better health outcomes is really what's going to get commercial insurers in the united states and governmental payers like the nhs here in the uk to pay for these drugs, because at the end of the day, you know, health care systems don't want to pay for people to look better, they want to pay for them to be healthier so that they can save money on treating things like heart disease. eli lilly has had a study showing that there's a big benefit in obstructive sleep apnoea. what might be a big story of next year, novo nordisk is actually trying semaglutide in alzheimer's disease, with the thought being that some of the anti—inflammatory benefits of the drug could have a benefit on dementia caused by alzheimer's. but we'll see about that.

yeah, and of course, with all drugs, they lose their copyright protection, their patent, don't they, at some point, and i wonder what impact that then has on maybe the price and the availability, because generic versions of these drugs could therefore open it up to a whole new range of consumers. that's a great question because...and that's why, erm, you know, normally these pharmaceutical companies, you ride the wave and then people start to worry about the patent cliff, because it eventually happens to all these drugs at some point. but with these particular drugs — and this partially comes down to the sheer numbers of people that will probably be taking

them by the time they lose patent protection — and then also the complexity of the manufacturing process, it remains an open question just how much are prices going to fall and how much volume can generic companies take, because novo, being the biggest company in europe, you know, there's not even a generics company that comes even close to a fraction of its size. emily field at barclays, thank you so much for being with us on the programme this week. thank you. now, the impact of these drugs are rippling outside of the pharmaceutical industry. the collapse ofjenny craig has been seen partly due to the rise of the jabs. archrival weight watchers

is offering its american clients its own version of the ingredients in those injections. now, one man who's across these trends for a whole menu of blue chip clients is my next guest. he's the director of research for the consulting arm of the company that calls itself "the world's leading market intelligence agency". toby clark, it's good to have you on the programme. now, talk to me about how not only have these drugs changed their own industry, they're changing other businesses, too. where are you seeing the greatest impact? it's still really early days at the moment. some of the stuff we're seeing coming through, first of all, is in the supplement sector. so obviously if people are taking in fewer calories, they want to make sure they're getting all the nutrients that they need. so in the us especially, we've seen a couple of brands that have launched supplements specifically for glp—1 users. we've also seen it in some of the us retail stores, where we've got one of the health food firms is creating special glp—1 drug areas in the store to help guide people through their requirements. it's already hitting multiple sectors. we're seeing it in cosmetics, where you're seeing more claims coming through about skin

plumping, to try and counteract that ozempic face challenge. and nestle, for example, relatively recently launched a range of foods specifically designed for glp—1 users. so it's early days, but it's already coming through. and how important would you say that concept of weight loss and body shape is when it comes to shaping consumer behaviour? what has it done to how we shop? it's about the way you interact with the world. it's absolutely central, so it affects the clothes you wear. it affects the food you eat. it affects your health priorities, how you live your life. so anything which is going to change people's relationships to what they eat, their weight, is going to have seismic impact across multiple sectors. how does it change behaviour, and i guess how do other brands get in on this? because they will say, look, you know, these drugs have got a huge slice of the market,

they're their very successful businesses in their own right. we want a bit of that. how do they do it? the obvious impact is on food and drink, because it's all about the calories you're taking in and what we've seen, what's happened over the last sort of 25, 30, a0 years is food and drink manufacturers have become really incredibly efficient at making people, encouraging people, to take in more calories. so you've now got this whole class of drugs which is encouraging people to reduce their calorie intake. that totally changes the way that brands might have to think about how they market their products, how they design their products. looking at portion control, for example, if you're a food and drink manufacturer, if people want to eat less, then you make less but better. so smaller portions, but make sure they're nutrient—dense. clothes manufacturers are going to have to rethink their sizing. because it's so central to people's lived experience, it affects so many different markets. i think there's potentially really interesting implications for leisure and hospitality and food service. if you think about how people socialise, it's linked so much of the time to food. sitting there watching people push a meal around their plate with a fork because they're not

hungry isn't an especially fun experience. so, yeah, it's going to have implications across food service as well. how seismic a shift is this? as we said, not only for the drugs market, but for all of those other associated industries, because, you know, we know business has to adapt to survive, but this feels like quite a fundamental change. if people have better health outcomes, then what does that mean for the health of the economy, for benefits, bills for working lives and so on? so quietly i think this could be a really, really fundamental shift in consumer behaviour. toby, really good to have you on the programme. thanks for being with us on talking business. thank you. thanks very much.

if people have better health outcomes, then what does that mean for the health of the economy, for benefits, bills for working lives and so on? so quietly i think this could be a really, really fundamental shift in consumer behaviour. toby, really good to have you on the programme. thanks for being with us on talking business.

thank you. thanks very much. well, my next guest is on the front line. the fashion company she runs is called universal standard and they sell directly to customers, whatever their size, from size zero to size a0. and if anyone in the clothing industry is going to see how the drugs will impact their business, she is. polina, it's really good to have you on the programme this week. now, talk to me about what impact you've seen on your business. have you seen that demand is changing as these drugs take hold ? what impact does it have on a business like yours that caters to anyone of any size? thank you so much for having me, ben. because this is a newer development, we have not seen a shift in demand because we've always had customers that shop every size in our assortment, from size double zero to a0. this year, our best—selling sizes are 18 and 20, so that's traditionally referred to as a size 2x, which is pretty consistent with what we've seen over the past several years and also actually reflects the average size of the american consumer. but a shift we have seen

is actually an increase in popularity of our sizes 22 and 2a. and it's interesting, isn't it, because at the moment, you're right, this is a relatively new development. access to these sorts of drugs is still challenging for some people who want them. how do you anticipate in future what this might do to your business, as maybe more people are able to get their hands on these weight—loss drugs? though this recent development feels like a stark contrast from the progress the fashion industry has made with inclusivity in recent years, weight—loss medication, size fluctuation, beauty standard trends and exclusivity in fashion are actually not new concepts.

we all lived through the �*90s, where women were constantly objectified by fashion media, with their weight scrutinised on a daily basis. and we have been here before and we've gotten through it, and this time is no different. we know business is all about getting the right things in the right place at the right time. how do you work out what you need in what sizes, when, given the way that this may change? perfecting the buy—in is key to running a profitable size—inclusive business. it's actually part of the reason why at universal standard, our size medium is the average size of the american consumer, which is size 18. and the industry standard is typically to buy most stock in that size, medium, but for the majority of american brands, that size medium is actually a size six or eight. it's not based on anything. these are totally made—up numbers that the industryjust randomly decided to make a size medium. so by setting our size medium to the average size of the consumer, we reduce waste in that excess inventory and can perfect our buy—in. if we see that the average

changes in any lasting way, we'll re—evaluate. and we always, even before the rise of the weight—loss drugs, stayed incredibly close to our buy—in and adjusted as needed. and this is how we continue to ensure that we inform our buys and reduce that environmental impact. you touched on it there, but do you expect you'll have to revisit that? you might have to think again about what you stock and when and in what sizes. if we see any lasting impact, we will, of course, revisit our buy—ins. and, polina, am i right

in saying that you allow customers to exchange the size of their purchase for a different size, if they need to? do you anticipate that will become more popular? size fluctuation is a completely normal part of life, so it's not something that we only started to consider during the growing popularity of this recent conversation. and you're right. that's why we have this cool programme called fit liberty, which we actually launched years ago, in 2017. and like you said, it's an exchange programme that allows shoppers to swap their old pieces for new garments, forfree — if their size does happen to change. and we've always believed that size and size fluctuation should actually not dictate style. our goal is to empower customers to embrace fashion at absolutely every size. and while we haven't seen an increase in this programme's usage this year specifically, we'll be there for our customers if and when they want to use this programme.

you've used the phrase "body positivity" a lot in our conversation, and i think it's fair to say, and you've touched on this yourself, that, you know, the fashion industry was so slow to adapt to that. other industries did it much more quickly, and they've been much more successful in doing so. do you get a sense that that is now finally changing, that the fashion industry is saying everyone is welcome, whatever you may look like? for the past decade, we've heard so much about body positivity, neutrality and size inclusivity. but even when those conversations were the loudest, brands were actually hesitant to champion those concepts. and those that did try to extend sizing, they actually struggled to see immediate financial success, and that could have been for a whole host of reasons. it could have been because they did not give it enough time to establish trust with the new customer base, or to perfect their buy—ins, or they didn't prioritise the fit of the double digit—sized garments, and they ended up offering

a poor quality piece that this demographicjust wasn't interested in. and now, unfortunately, we're in a time when culture is back—pedalling to promote more antiquated standards. and while some brands may use this trend as an...actually as an excuse for not offering inclusive sizing, there are plenty of retailers and designers who have remained committed to their efforts during this time, and i'd argue that the current dialogue surrounding the intersection of glp—1 medication and fashion, which has been incessantly covered, actually perpetuates the outdated perspective that most size—inclusive brands cannot succeed, and further contributes to this industry's hesitancy to embrace size—inclusivity altogether.

really good to have you on the programme. i'm gratefulfor your time. polina veksler there from universal standard. really good to have you on the programme. thank you. thank you so much. really appreciate it. well, that's it for this week. i hope you've enjoyed the show. don't forget, you can keep up to date with the global economy on the bbc website or smartphone app. that's all for this week. thanks for watching. we'll see you very soon. bye— bye.

hello there. well, finally, some blue sky and some sunshine for many parts of england and wales through the day on saturday. and it was a beautiful end to the day — lots of red skies around, including here in gosport in hampshire, with our approaching weather front. but it's that weather front that's introducing a lot more cloud as we head through sunday, so it's not such a nice day of weather. there'll be a brisk westerly wind, many places will stay dry and the air is going to turn a lot milder — and that's because it's a warm front — marked here with the red circles — gradually slipping southwards and eastwards for the rest of saturday night, introducing that milder—feeling air — marked here in yellow — squeezing the blue, colder air well out of the way. we're staying in that milder air for the next few days. and here it is on sunday morning. a lot of cloud, some coastal, some hill fog around, gales across the northern isles, and it's breezy with that brisk westerly wind further south, too. heavy rain pushing into northwest scotland. but elsewhere, largely dry away from these northern and western coasts.

the best of any breaks in the cloud will be to the east of higher ground, so eastern scotland, north east england, eastern wales should see at least some brighter spells. temperatures will be mild — 12 to 1a degrees celsius — in the best of any brightness. and it's just more of the same as we head through sunday night and into monday. the rain continues across northwest scotland. a few breaks in the cloud perhaps further south with the strength of the breeze but temperatures won't drop much below nine or ten degrees celsius as we kick off the new working week. and if we just take a look at the pressure chart then you can see that this rain is just set to continue across northwest scotland. there is a met office yellow weather warning in place for heavy rain here. there could be some localised flooding because the rainfall

totals will really start to rack up, particularly as we head through monday and into tuesday. and because of the snow melt with that milder air, there could be some localised flooding. the rain gradually pushing across caithness and sutherland later on. a few more breaks in the cloud, i think, further south on monday. it does stay breezy but i think we'll stand the chance of seeing more sunshine across east anglia and parts of the east midlands in particular. as we head through monday and into tuesday, we look out towards the south—west. it's turning really very wet and windy with this deep area of low pressure starting to sweep through. the winds turn more southwesterly and it will be very blustery, unsettled as we head through the middle of the week and then, it all turns cooler with a northwesterly wind developing on thursday, so a drop in temperature again. bye— bye.

good morning. welcome to breakfast with ben boulos and sarah campbell. 0ur headlines today: the home secretary says the number of migrants crossing the channel is far too high as the figure for this year is expected to reach 35,000 this weekend.

one person is in a critical condition and seven others are injured after a double—decker bus crashes into a bridge in glasgow city centre. warnings that disabled people are being failed over a lack of accessible housing. councils in england call for urgent reform. in sport: two of the top three drop points in the premier league title race but leaders liverpool come from behind twice with ten men to draw with fulham. chris and diane! —— chris and dianne! celebration and delight as comedian chris mccausland lifts the glitterball trophy and becomes the first blind winner of strictly come dancing. it just shows with itjust shows with opportunity it just shows with opportunity and support and just determination, just anything can happen. and it's a cloudy day, a breezy day but a milder day out there today.

i've got details of that and a look at the week