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tv   Business Today  BBC News  December 18, 2024 11:30am-11:46am GMT

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welcome to business today. we start injapan with reports of a mega—merger in the car industry. shares of nissan were suspended on the tokyo stock exchange after soaring on multiple reports it is in talks to set up a joint company with rival honda. they closed up 23% after trading resumed, nissan's french partner, renault currently trades around 6% higher in paris. honda shares on the other hand fell about 3%. a merger would create japan's biggest carfirm by stock market value — overtaking toyota. the talks come as established car brands struggle with the transition to electric cars — an industry now dominated by china. and there will inevitably be fears forjobs here in the uk — where nissan employs around 7,000 people.
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will roberts, head of automotive research, rho motion. good to have you here. talk to me about the potential and that is all it is at this point, there is a bit of talk and speculation about a tie—up, what would it mean if it gets the green light?— what would it mean if it gets the green light? yeah, it would mean the _ the green light? yeah, it would mean the entry _ the green light? yeah, it would mean the entry of— the green light? yeah, it would mean the entry of a _ the green light? yeah, it would mean the entry of a new - the green light? yeah, it would mean the entry of a new global| mean the entry of a new global power when it comes to total vehicle sales but when we put this in the context of the ev market, there is a lot of question about how powerful that merger could be. both of these companies have been relatively slow to enter the full ev market, their market share globally is only really around 1% and it is even lower in china where now very much the largest ev market is incredibly important for the future of a lot of these legacy money factor is.— money factor is. and this really is _ money factor is. and this really is a _ money factor is. and this really is a discussion - money factor is. and this i really is a discussion about evs, electric vehicles, and how it has changed the car market.
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it strikes me here what we have is really two big legacy players struggling to adapt, looking for safety in numbers, hunkering down and thinking this is the answer to take on the likes of china that is able to make them at volume and for a cheaper price. will it be enough given the scale of that competition? i enough given the scale of that competition?— enough given the scale of that competition? i mean, that is a very good _ competition? i mean, that is a very good question. _ competition? i mean, that is a very good question. it's - competition? i mean, that is a very good question. it's going | very good question. it's going to be very tough to regain the kind of market share that these two together were used to in the chinese market. back at their peak, their share was .5%, really, in 2020. it is now half that and like i said, less than i% share in the ev market. getting that over 10% is going to be basically impossible given the strength of the domestic players and how far ahead they are in ev technology now. we have seen entry from companies, growing massively to be extremely large place but even entry from new players
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bringing two domestic chinese consumers what they want while overseas malefactors have been slower to respond to those needs. �* ., , slower to respond to those needs. �* . , ., needs. and we have seen that the reaponse _ needs. and we have seen that the response of— needs. and we have seen that the response of overseas - the response of overseas governments, beat the united states or indeed the european union, slapping extra tariffs on made vehicles. we know in all of this that any sort of trade war, the consumer loses, no one really wins from a trade war because it is about slapping extra taxes and making everything more expensive and i wonder therefore whether this is a more fundamental problem for these governments around the world of how they can make their domestic producers more competitive in this space given that assault from china.- that assault from china. yeah, 10096. that assault from china. yeah, 100%- we _ that assault from china. yeah, 10096. we have _ that assault from china. yeah, 10096. we have definitely - that assault from china. yeah, i 10096. we have definitely seen that assault from china. yeah, l 10096. we have definitely seen a 100%. we have definitely seen a lot more protectionism in the us. how that plays out with a new administration is going to be a really key dynamic next year. there is even talk or report of it could be more favourable for chinese money factor is if they want to malefactor in the us under a trump administration and similarly in europe, there is
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already the presence of chinese manufacturer's in europe and these tariffs, if anything entered this year, have just accelerated chinese money factor is bringing that production capacity onto european shores as well. so there has to be a balance there of, yes, protectionism but also working with the part of the industry that is clearly further ahead in both technological and price and capacity lead at this point. will come a really good to talk to you as always. i have a feeling we will discuss this again as we start to get more detail about whether that tie—up does come to fruition. will roberts there at rho motion. to the us now where there are cheaper borrowing costs on the way. in the next few hours, the us federal reserve is expected to cut its main interest rate for the third time this year — by o.25%. the decison has been clearly flagged by the fed — and financial markets are putting it at a 97% near—certainty. but what is far from certain — is what happens after that? from new york — our
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north america business correspondent ritika gupta. the federal reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates on wednesday, with a quarter point cut all but baked in by the market, which would lower the range to 4.25 to 4.5% and would mark a full percentage point of reductions since september. what's more uncertain is the path of future policy and whether this cut will be the last. investors will be looking at the new economic projections released alongside the decision for more clues, and they're expecting it to be somewhat hawkish, with the fed perhaps closer to a pause on future rate cuts, or at least reluctant to commit to more reductions than it was just a few months ago. some of the factors they'll be considering include inflation, which is still well above the 2% target. signs of strong consumer demand and a robust labour market. back in september, the fed was more focussed on the employment picture than progress on inflation. perhaps that dynamic could start to flip. there's also the case of incoming president
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donald trump's policy proposals, including a fresh round of tariffs and renewed tax cuts, and how that will ultimately impact the economy. many economists anticipate fewer rate cuts in 2025 as a result of those policies. that is what is happening in america. let's turn our attention to the uk... the bank of england makes its own interest rate decision tomorrow. unlike the fed, the bank of england is expected to hold off cutting rates again because of lingering worries about rising prices. well, we havejust had the latest inflation figure for the uk for november — it actually rose again last month to an annual rate of 2.6% — up from 2.3% in october — the bank's target is 2%. add to that the employment data we had this time yesterday — that showed wages have risen more than expected in the three months to october, threatening to push prices up further. that has reinforced expectations that interest rates will stay on hold at 4.75% tomorrow.
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that is where they are, not expected to change when the bank announces that tomorrow. let's talk to george buckley. chief uk and euro area economist at nomura. all the figures suggest the bank is to hold off cutting rates but what would be really important tomorrow is the language we get about what might happen next year because people will be looking for rate cuts. , ., people will be looking for rate cuts. , . ., ~ cuts. they will and the market is ricin: cuts. they will and the market is pricing in — cuts. they will and the market is pricing in rate _ cuts. they will and the market is pricing in rate cuts. - cuts. they will and the market is pricing in rate cuts. we - is pricing in rate cuts. we expect them to continue cutting rates. your last point mentioned about the fed, we are expecting the federal reserve to cut interest rates tomorrow but not do much for the next few months. the ecb is probably going to be the fastest cutter. the bank of england i think is going to be somewhere in between and the reason they are going to be cautious about how quickly they cut interest rates is because of data just like we had today. it wasn'tjust is because of data just like we had today. it wasn't just the fact that inflation rose from 2.3% to 2.6% but also services
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inflation is still really quite high running at 5%. in the euro area, it is around 4% so the uk clearly has a services inflation problem, it is taking a long time to get rid of that and yesterday we had some labour market data which showed wage growth was still very strong. so the competition of strong. so the competition of strong ways wages and prices has to be taken into consideration.- has to be taken into consideration. ~ ., ., consideration. we will hear a lot about _ consideration. we will hear a lot about stagflation, - lot about stagflation, inflation is still going up. forecasts suggesting it could be a brief period of stagflation but explain why thatis stagflation but explain why that is damaging? stagflation is a were to — that is damaging? stagflation is a were to typically - is a were to typically associate with the 19705 where we had falling economic output and inflation at exceptionally high levels. we'll probably have to be careful with the way we use that word now because it does bring those connotations of the 705 back but what we are talking here is something where
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we might have 0.5% higher inflation than target and may be growth is stagnating so maybe the 5tag bit is correct but we don't have excessive inflation. of course, what everyone wants to see is inflation running at its target. the bank of england has a symmetric target where they are just as disappointed if they miss it on the downside a5 they miss it on the downside as if they miss
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why households probably have cause to be positive.— cause to be positive. george, really good — cause to be positive. george, really good to _ cause to be positive. george, really good to talk _ cause to be positive. george, really good to talk to - cause to be positive. george, really good to talk to you - cause to be positive. george, really good to talk to you as i really good to talk to you as always. we'll talk some more alway5. we'll talk some more about this george buckley at nomura. now, how does it feel to pull off a billion dollar bu5ine55 deal? this tiktok video went viral earlier in the year — it's dean forbes — boss of software firm forterro — at the moment he closed the deal to sell the company. he is pretty happy, as you can see. what made it special for many people was the back—story. dean grew up on a council estate in south east london and was made homele55 twice. he's just made the top of the 2025 power list of influential black british people. theo legggett has been talking to dean about what it took to get there. i think my background, which for sure is not typical of a person in my role or in my situation, is actually the most helpful thing to me in my career. and i've said this, you know, many, many, many times. number one, in the transformation or turnaround environment, among many things that you need
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i5 resilience, right? becau5e especially at the beginning, you're having more bad days than you're having good days. so i've been kind of built in an environment, i grew up in an environment where resilience was was a survival mechanism. it wasn't about developing your career or making money. it was about staying alive. that's why you needed to be resilient. so my resilience is built in a very different kind of factory than most of my counterparts. so that's helpful, especially in transformation. and then there's the fact i've lived most of my life without very much so to be in this situation now with, you know, tonnes of opportunity, lots of great things happening. i'm not fearful of, you know, having nothing. i like to win. i'm a competitor, but i'm not fearful of having nothing. i think sometimes that's quite liberating for me. really i5 really is an incredible story and more on the website. more from us throughout the day but
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thatis from us throughout the day but that is your is listed a, we will see for another edition very soon, bye—bye for now. —— business today.
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hello from the bbc sport centre. i'm hugh ferris. midway through his team's te5t tour of au5tralia, india spinner ravichandran a5hwin has announced his surprise retirement from internatoinal cricket. his 537 wickets in tests has him seventh on the all time li5t. but he's decided to immediately stop playing for india in all formats after being left out of two of the first three test5 against australia. ido i do feel there is a bit of punch left in me as a cricketer but i would like to showcase that in club level cricket but this will be the last day and i have had a lot of fun, i have made a lot of memories
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alongside my team—mates and even though i have lost some of them over the last few years, we are the last bunch of 0g5 left in the dressing room. i will be marking this as my date of having played at this level. well, india's third test against australia ended in a draw and a soggy one at that in brisbane, leaving the series 1—1 with two of the five matches to go. australia had a first innings lead of 185 early on the final day at the gabba and tried to force a result with some attacking batting. 18 overs and 89—7 later, the home side left india a target of 275. but they could only manage a couple of over5 before the bad light and rain came. they'll next meet in melbourne for the boxing day test. i think we can take a lot from this week. a couple of great partnerships. to be sent in on a wicket and score 1150 and then be a bowler down and managing to bowl india out for 250 when the wicket, the conditions, were probably a little bit better, i think we can take a
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lot from that. it has been

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