tv Business Today BBC News December 19, 2024 4:30pm-4:46pm GMT
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split decision — the bank of england keeps rates on hold, but not everybody agrees. we'll but not everybody agrees. explain what happened . moment. also us stocks stage a recovery, as investors digest the fed's third interest rate cut of the year. and putting america back on top. we hear from the boss of fintech giant robinhood, who tells us donald trump's vision on crypto and ai will be a massive game—changer for the economy.
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all that i had today. let's start here in the uk, where the bank of england has held interest rates at 4.75% today. however, the bank seriously considered cutting interest rates in december as it forecast that the uk economy failed to grow at the end of this year. while the bank voted to keep rates unchanged, three out of its current nine members wanted to reduce the rate to 4.5%. the split opens the door to a rate cut as soon as february when the bank next meets. joining me now is jackie bowie, managing partner at chatham financial. always good to have you here. no surprise in the outcome. some surprise about the split. the vote was not unanimous. that it's right. earlier this morning, a lot of the market economists were out, expecting it to be 9—0 or eight one, very much more of the members voting in favour of the whole position, so the 6—3 was
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certainly a surprise. when you see the comings the bank of england made after the announcement, it was clear there is this real pool between there is this real pool between the fact economic activity has slowed down, concern about economic growth versus things are still sticky, hence the reason to hold things up 4.75. when we get statements like this and decisions, it is all in the detail, what the bank thinks will happen next. and that weak growth in real concern. what does that due to the trajectory of interest rates? what are we thinking they will do at the start of they will do at the start of the year?— they will do at the start of the ear? . ~ , , the year? the market is still ricin: the year? the market is still pricing in — the year? the market is still pricing in 225 _ the year? the market is still pricing in 225 basis - the year? the market is still pricing in 225 basis point - the year? the market is still| pricing in 225 basis point cuts in 25, so another 0.5% to come, so other economists out with forecast estate will not be enough. and in fact, we could get rates below 4% by the end of next year. the key thing to focus on, and we have talked about this before it is the headline inflation does not look great for hitting target
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next year, which is forecast to go up. once again, if we look at the core inflation sitting at the core inflation sitting at 4.5%, that is where the big stickiness is, hence the bank of england's caution. about being too hasty to cut more into 2025. being too hasty to cut more into 2025— being too hasty to cut more into 2025. we will hear a lot ofthe into 2025. we will hear a lot of the phrase, _ into 2025. we will hear a lot of the phrase, higher- into 2025. we will hear a lot of the phrase, higher for - of the phrase, higherfor longer. it means rates will stay a little higher than some had forecast. therefore, what does this due to government plans, in terms if they were hoping inflation was coming down, was one of their key promises. they have also talked about the economy and getting it going again. if it remains stubbornly high, interest rates, it means the gross pictures difficult to achieve? death have to make even the bank of england have said themselves they have revised down the growth forecast for the fourth quarter, so we will see zero growth in a queue for 2024. ~ see zero growth in a queue for 2024. . ., , see zero growth in a queue for
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2024. ~ ., , ,., ., 2024. we have seen some of the rate cuts net _ 2024. we have seen some of the rate cuts not feeding _ 2024. we have seen some of the rate cuts not feeding through - rate cuts not feeding through to economic activity and we have not felt the economic effects of the budget decisions. economists are divided as to whether those national insurance costs and the increasingly national living wage will feed through to wage inflation and then impacts obviously the cpi number, but that is certainly the concern of the markets, hence why only 50 basis points pricing for next year. irate hence why only 50 basis points pricing for next year.— pricing for next year. we will watch and — pricing for next year. we will watch and wait _ pricing for next year. we will watch and wait and - pricing for next year. we will watch and wait and see - pricing for next year. we will watch and wait and see what| watch and wait and see what happens. thank you for being with us. it is rather different in the united states. investors are still digesting the federal reserve's third rate cut of the year. but it was what the fed's chairjerome powell had to say about next year, that initially spooked markets. this morning we've seen a little bit of a bounce back, but powell said late on thursday that it was highly likely there would be fewer rate cuts next year.
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the key lending rate is now in a target range of 4.25 to 4.5%. that's despite us inflation hovering at around 27% percent which is some way above the fed's target of 2%. olivia micklem, us fund manager at artemis investment management, is with me now. we were talking with jackie about the bank of england holding off on cuts. the fed did it once again, cutting yesterday. they worry in the united states is a similar argument to what is happening here, that the rate of cuts will slow down.— will slow down. yes, absolutely. - will slow down. yes, absolutely. we - will slow down. yes, absolutely. we cut l will slow down. yes, | absolutely. we cut we will slow down. yes, - absolutely. we cut we got yesterday was certainly expected and we were pleased to see it. you're seeing the inflation data continue to improve, so we are seeing inflation modulate in areas like goods, wages and rent. the economy remains quite a bus and any tone yesterday was walking the line between suggesting while rate cuts could continue, the fed continues to watch the inflation data and for the
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inflation data and for the inflation to accelerate next year. whether it is healthy economic growth or an early reaction to some of the potentially inflationary policies from the incoming president around things like tariffs remains to be seen, but clearly they are watching the balance very carefully. find clearly they are watching the balance very carefully. and we know so much _ balance very carefully. and we know so much of _ balance very carefully. and we know so much of these - know so much of these discussions are about how to strike the right balance, because quite clearly, if president lutnick wants to slap tariffs on imported goods from the us, it makes the more expensive. —— president trump. the other side of the coin is the economy is functioning a bit better and the us has been an outlier in terms of how growth, what growth looks like around the world, the us is looking like it's doing pretty well. �* , looking like it's doing pretty well. , ., ., , ., well. absolutely, and lots of areas where _ well. absolutely, and lots of areas where we _ well. absolutely, and lots of areas where we could - well. absolutely, and lots of areas where we could see i well. absolutely, and lots of| areas where we could see the economy accelerate next year, potentially the continuation of domestic investment in infrastructure, huge spending around technology with al and that going on there, and the additional policies around potential tax cuts and the cutting of red tape. all of those things could spur the economy to grow faster and
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certainly when we speak to companies, we are seeing really healthy earnings growth, strong margins, good revenue growth and the balance seems to be the economy will grow really nicely, which should be supportive for markets. find supportive for markets. and that is what _ supportive for markets. and that is what has _ supportive for markets. and that is what has been - supportive for markets. and that is what has been reflected in the record closes we have seen on the stock markets in the us of late. but the little dip today, nervousness, investors took fright of what they heard. what do they want to see? cheaper borrowing because it makes the economy function better with a sugar rush question might have to make the market had been really strong into the numbers yesterday, so i do think there had been a yesterday, so i do think there had been ., ., ., . ., had been a lot of post-election eunhoria- _ had been a lot of post-election euphoria. and _ had been a lot of post-election euphoria. and any _ had been a lot of post-election euphoria. and any change - had been a lot of post-election euphoria. and any change of i euphoria. and any change of tone slightly took people by surprise. it was not that much of a surprise to see the gut reaction. as you say, seeing a little bit of an improvement today and we will see how markets trend from hearing into year end, a tricky pact when things are a little quieter. it is important to bear in mind that when you look back to the late part of 2023, the market pricing five, nearly six rate
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cuts were 2024 and what we saw was three, not starting until september and despite that, markets are really healthy throughout this year, so we could continue to see a situation where healthy economic growth and great company performance can drive markets higher, even if we do end up with rates a little lower, rate cuts coming little lower, rate cuts coming little lower than we might have hoped. olivia, good to chat to you. thank you. us fund manager at artemis investment management. the ceo of the online investing platform robinhood has accused the biden administration of mounting a relentless assault on the crypto industry. vlad tenev started robinhood as an online stock trading service but has expanded into cryptocurrencies and wealth management. he thinks the trump administration will be will be very good for business, as he told the bbc�*s ritika gupta. we've worked to diversify the business and make sure that we are a strong, growing company across all market environments, regardless of whether it's
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a democrat administration or republican, regardless of if it's high interest rates or low. but, yeah, sometimes there are things that help the business, and i think having a clear regulatory framework behind crypto, where we're one of the leaders in the us is going to be very helpful, notjust for us as a business, but for the industry, which has been under relentless assault from the current administration. morgan stanley has actually said that you're one of the biggest winners from a trump election win. and i'm just thinking about who donald trump is bringing into his administration. i mean, the likes of doge, the department of government efficiency led by elon musk. i mean, how do you see that for your business? i think its strong for our business. generally speaking, efficiency and making the government run more smoothly, i'm a huge believer in that, and i think that it could not only save costs — and the costs have been increasing tremendously —
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but it's notjust the costs, it's reducing the friction to the us being the market leader in new innovative industries — crypto, we mentioned, but also ai. and ultimately it's going to be the combination of cutting costs, but also putting in place policies that make america the best place to do business which ultimately will drive gdp growth. and i think we can do both in this country, i don't think we have to pick one or the other. you've had a phenomenal year and quite a big turnaround, but it hasn't all been smooth sailing. so talk to me about robinhood's comeback and how you feel about the investing environment today. it's been a long time in the works. i mean, we've been building this business, adding new features, functionality quite steadily since we started really in the past two years. and now we have nine business lines that generate over $100 million in revenue per year,
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which is much more diversified, a much stronger company, much more diversified than we were when we went public three years ago. the market that we're mapping out that we think we can penetrate is 600 billion, if not more, in annual revenue. and even though we've grown quite a bit, we're still only at 2.5 billion the last 12 months, so we've got a long way to go. and when it comes to ai, mean, you've stated aspirations to provide financial advice through this technology to improve those wealth management offers. i mean, how do you see ai really changing the direction of your business? i think the best way to picture the opportunity is imagine a wealthy person who has access to a team of financial experts, so you have folks helping you with your budgeting, your tax, your estate planning, your wealth management and advisory, of course, and things like insurance. so not everyone can access those things because they're expensive.
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and with al technologies progressing at this rate, you'll have the equivalent of a trained team of financial experts at your disposal 24/7 in your pocket, through your smartphone at very, very low cost. so i think that's the opportunity. the boss of robinhood there speaking to us. in other news: thousands of amazon workers across seven us warehouses have taken strike action today, walking out of their shifts early as they increase pressure on the online retailer. the workers' want amazon to resume fresh contract talks with their union. amazon said the strike action wouldn't effect deliveries, despite only being a few days away from christmas. spain's state—owned shipbuilder navantia has reached a deal to buy harland & wolff, the belfast shipyard best known for the titanic. all jobs at the firm are expected to be saved in the deal, which also includes harland & wolff's facilities in scotland and england. the uk business secretary jonathan reynolds said the deal
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welcome back to bbc news. the bbc has gained rare access to the unheard stories of women inside iran's notorious evin prison, including accounts of torture and threat of execution. thousands of women in iran were arrested after the woman, life, freedom movement in 2022. from multiple reliable sources, bbc 100 women has built a detailed picture of life inside the prison walls, revealing the stories of women who continue to protest for their rights despite the risks. this is nasim's story, narrated by nazanin zaghari—ratcliffe, who was herself held in evin prison. and a warning, some viewers may find this distressing.
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