suspected the motive is behind this suspected perpetrator, all we know is that he appears to have been a doctorfrom saudi arabia and had been living in germany in that region for a very long time, so lots of questions about why he carried out this terrible act, and there would then be a question over whether that will have an impact on the political debate in germany because it is a feeble time anyway politically, given the fact the governing coalition has snapped and there are snap elections in february, the economy has stalled, so already lots of uncertainty in germany and the fair is this terrible attack could add to them. hello and welcome to the programme. let's take a look at what's on the show this week. getting growth going again. much of the global economy has struggled over the last 12 months. so we'll ask, what's in store for 2025? and, as the us economy gets a new leader, will it continue to drag the rest of the world along, or will inflation, war and trouble in china prove to be bigger challenges? i'll discuss all of this with these two.

we'll delve into the big issues with one of the top economists atjp morgan — it's one of the world's biggest banks — and this top expert will explain what trade tensions and climate change mean for the cost of our supermarket shopping. plus, what about the world of work? the boss of the planet's biggest recruitment firm tells us what the new year might bring for our pay and our prospects. wherever you'rejoining us from, welcome to the programme. now, as the year draws to an end, we're taking a look at what's in store for the global economy in 2025. it promises to be a year full of change after a 12 months that saw around 4 billion people, or half of the world's population, vote for new leaders and new directions for their countries and economies. over the last year, the us has remained the bright spot, while economies in both china and europe continue to struggle. at the same time, global trade has continued to be rocked by a war in ukraine and the middle east, and prices have risen faster than many would like. the global economy is forecast to grow 3.2% next year, according to the international monetary fund. they've called that

stable yet underwhelming. another important number is inflation. globally, it's expected to fall to 3.5% next year as the pace of price rises slows, but remains a key concern for policymakers and politicians. lower energy prices are also having an impact. as you can see, oil prices have been pretty steady this year despite continued tensions in the middle east, and that's thanks to plentiful supply and subdued demand. on the stock markets, the s&p 500 index of america's biggest companies has repeatedly hit record highs, demonstrating the overall resilience of the world's biggest economy. it is expected to remain a bright spot this year, and a lot of that is down to us consumers continuing to spend money and their demand for everything from gadgets to eating out and cars that's kept the wheels of the global economy turning.

so let's dig a little deeper on what the big factors are that could influence how well economies around the world perform in 2025. jp morgan is one of the world's biggest and most influential banks. i've been speaking to its head of global macro research. luis 0ganes, welcome to the programme. it's good to have you here. and, look, the imf predicting growth next year, in their words, stable yet underwhelming, still below the levels seen before the pandemic. is that how you see 2025? yes. growth is, you know, we're closing this year as actually a very strong year, relatively speaking, given the circumstances where us being exceptional, china doing a lot to support its growth, emerging markets showing a lot of resilience, europe, as you know, is a bit of a weak spot, but it has been so for some time. so a lot of these trends are expected to continue next year. the imf does keep a 3.2% growth forecast. i think we're a little bit more conservative, expecting maybe half a point reduction next year. but overall i would say resilience is the name of the game.

and what are the biggest headwinds at the moment that are holding back that growth number? because, as you said, you touch on the bright spots around the world. and yet it seems there are some real hurdles that the global economy collectively has to overcome. i would say that a lot of that is uncertainty, and the uncertainty is coming from what may come out of the us under trump 2.0. the us going into a more isolationist policy stance. raising tariffs, trying to provide more effective protection to us manufacturing. and even though that is going to support us growth, at least in the short term, certainly it's going to hurt many countries that rely on trade with the us. so this sense of us exceptionalism is probably going to be something that is going to intensify in 2025. so let's look at the us, though, and the specifics right now before trump 2.0. what is the us doing right? why is there a sense that its economy is still growing quite strongly when other developed economies around the world are really struggling to shake off the effects of the pandemic?

the us has been a bit of an outlier, hasn't it? it has been, and a lot of that is because of its production structure. it is not fully self—sufficient, but a lot more self—sufficient on energy than europe or other parts of the world. and that has meant that manufacturing there doesn't have to deal with the consequences, for example, of the russia—ukraine war. and you have the issue of inflation coming down that has propped up real wages and purchasing power of consumers. you have had accumulation of savings during the pandemic that has been deployed for consumption as well. and of course, you have a propped up an equity market that has led to this so—called wealth effect in which american consumers feel, you know, wealthier and therefore are spending more. so a number of combinations that are making us growth, you know, exceptional, actually. and in sharp contrast, though, what's happening in china almost mirrors that, doesn't it? i mean, the authorities in china are worried about domestic consumption. they're worried about debt. they're worried about

the property market. and as the number two economy, that has repercussions around the world. so give me your sense about how worried we should be about what's happening in china and what that potential contagion could be. it is important. whatever happens, there is going to have a global consequence. china has been deploying a lot of measures to try to prop up its growth numbers with, i would say, partial success. this year, we're expecting growth at around 4.8%. so very close to that 5% target that they had from the official side. however, there are structural issues related to the housing market. you still have a lot of the measures that are propping up production rather than consumption. therefore, china needs to rely on selling to the rest of the planet just because the domestic consumption base is not strong enough. and i think that is where the challenge lies for the future. yeah. and the challenge, particularly given that it's been slapped with tariffs and import duties

from the us and from the european union, especially when it comes to things like electric vehicles. will china be able to continue selling in such volumes to the rest of the world, given what we're seeing, particularly in the united states, but also now in europe, when it comes to that concern over trade and trade wars, and therefore the resulting tariffs to try and balance out that trade? if and when it gets slapped by higher tariffs from the us under trump 2.0 and maybe europe does more of that as well, it's going to look for alternative markets. so i think that over time you're going to see some kind of redistribution or redirection of global trade in which probably there's going to be more south—south trade. so whatever china cannot sell to the us or to europe, it's going to look to sell elsewhere. rest of asia, other emerging market economies, etc. so overall, maybe trade volumes globally are not going to decline so much, but there's going to be a transition and it's going to be a relatively painful transition for many countries. many countries are going to be fearing and experiencing a lot of competition of cheap exports coming from china into their shores. so it's going to be deflationary, and maybe that helps inflation, but obviously it will hurt

manufacturing in other places. and i wonder what it means for the eu and for the united states, because there is a reason that they are key trading partners. china is able to make stuff more cheaply and sell it into those markets. you know, the politics is slapping tariffs on it. the economics may suffer. correct? absolutely. and i think that as a result, you know, in a world that is moving in a more isolationist direction, meaning that, you know, there is a populist backlash and the backlash is coming from globalisation, what that is going to mean is that we're all, as global consumers, going to be buying products, probably not from the cheapest source. therefore, prices are going to be higher. so i think that one of the question marks about this tariff war that we're probably going to see intensifying in the coming quarters is that it's going to lead to higher inflation once again, and that will impede the work of central banks that are looking to cut interest rates. maybe we're going to be forced

to settle for higher interest rates and higher prices globally. are there other systemic issues that europe is dealing with right now? because, you know, you look at an ageing population, an ageing workforce, you look at extra demands for things like climate change. what are the other issues that are ailing europe right now, and is it going to be easy to shake them off? a lot of the business model of europe, particularly the powerhouses on the industrial side, like germany, was quite reliant on cheap energy from russia. it's uncertain what will happen in the future on that front. so in the meantime, europe needs to reinvent itself. that obviously takes time. that takes a concerted effort. and, unfortunately, any decision that is made in the eurozone needs to have the acquiescence agreement of 27 countries. so it's more problematic. now, what is interesting in europe, though, is the northern european countries are the ones that are suffering the most. some of the periphery countries, including spain, portugal or even greece,

are not suffering as much. so it's not all doom and gloom, but it does require a lot of soul—searching and a lot of agreement from within. and if you were to sum up 2025, in economic terms, what will be the themes that we will be keeping an eye on next year? going back to the issue that everything points still to continued us exceptionalism at the expense of the rest of the world. we have the inauguration 20th of january. we may hear a lot of new information being revealed right there and then we just need to wait and see. i'm hoping that in the end, the conditions are there to the extent that inflation is coming down. so 2025 doesn't need to be a bad year, right? it could well be that we may be celebrating the continuation of a still resilient 2024, but a lot of it will depend, you know, what are the policies that get deployed, particularly from the us?

and if you were to sum up 2025, in economic terms, what will be the themes that we will be keeping an eye on next year? thanks for the invitation. now, the one thing none of us can do without is food, but it's also been one of the biggest contributors to inflation in recent years, thanks to factors including the war in ukraine and export restrictions that governments to cut interest rates. maybe we're going to be forced to settle for higher interest rates and higher prices globally. are there other systemic issues that europe is dealing with right now? because, you know, you look at an ageing population, an ageing workforce, you look at extra demands for things like climate change. what are the other issues that are ailing europe right now, and is it going to be easy to shake them off? a lot of the business model of europe, particularly the themes that we will be keeping an eye on next year? going back to the issue that everything points still to continued

us exceptionalism at the expense of the rest of the world. we have the inauguration 20th of january. we may hear a lot of new information being revealed right there and then we just need to wait and see. i'm hoping that in the end, the conditions are there to the extent that inflation is coming down. so 2025 doesn't need to be a bad year, right? it could well be that we may be celebrating the continuation of a still resilient 2024, but a lot of it will depend, you know, what are the policies that get deployed, particularly from the us? luis 0ganes, really good to have you on the programme this week. thank you. thanks for the invitation. now, the one thing none of us can do without is food, but it's also been one of the biggest contributors to inflation in recent years, thanks to factors including the war in ukraine and export restrictions that governments have now put in place. so how might our supermarket bills change in the year ahead? well, i've been speaking to the head of research at one of the world's leading agricultural commodities merchants. that's ed&f man. kona haque, thank you forjoining us. now, give me your assessment of where we are right now in terms of food prices, because it's three years since the war in ukraine. that pushed up global prices, didn't it? the un world food price index now

at its highest level in 19 months. what is going on when it comes to how much we pay for our food? prices are quite a bit lower than they were back in 2022, just after the ukraine and russia war. since then, prices have steadily been coming down and we're at this point now where prices are at three— to four—year lows. the reason for this is literally because of the high prices that we had two years ago. that high price incentivised a huge amount of area expansion, husbandry and basically farms around the world were highly incentivised to look after their crops and plant as much as they could. so today we're in a much more comfortable situation in terms of supply. demand is pretty decent, so with the combination of high prices and decent—ish weather, we saw good crops around the world to the point that stock levels and global inventories around the world are a lot more comfortable, which in turn has allowed prices to normalise to more affordable levels. and when we say normalise, is it exactly that, or is there a danger we might

actually get to a point where there's overproduction? this year we saw a bit of overproduction, certainly in the usa, stocks of corn, for example, maize, have been very high. when you do have high inventories, the reality is that farmers struggle to sell it. that means they have to ask for discounts and prices start coming off quite a bit. so does that actually mean cheaper prices for consumers? 0r, on the other hand, might we see that manufacturers and producers will say, "well, "it's been a tough few years and actually now�*s the chance "to recoup some of those losses." the prices we've been talking about are the wholesale prices at the point of export. at the retail level, the supermarket will buy a loaf of bread or a packet of pasta, which has gone through a whole amount of supply chain. and don't forget, in between then you've got freight costs, labour costs, rising rental costs, rising interest rate costs. so all those cost pressures have all been growing. i myself, when i go into a supermarket, i will look at the price of bread, which is maybe £1.20 when i know three years ago,

three orfour years ago, i could get it for 80p, for example. so some of that's not going to get back to the low levels in a hurry. i think it's pretty sticky at that point. now, kona, there is a danger, isn't there, that we look at this withjust a broad brush. and actually, if you delve into some of the detail, things like vegetable oil, butter, the prices for those are still going up. so that reduction in cost is not universal, is it? the agricultural commodity basket consists of various baskets and they all operate with their own unique supply—demand fundamentals. so while i mentioned grains prices having fallen, dairy prices have not fallen as much. for the last few years, the dairy economics have been pretty harsh in the sense that in the eu, in the usa, dairy farmers have really struggled to maintain the herds�* sizes as they were. so there's been a high incentive to slaughter them. and that, in turn, has led to lower dairy supplies, which, in turn, has caused dairy prices to move up. but then you've also had vegetable oils, palm oil, which is grown out of malaysia

and indonesia, but also soybean oil, which is grown out of the usa. and in the case of palm oil, number one, there was erratic rainfall in southeast asia, which might have impacted some of the yields. secondly, the stocks of palm oil globally have been falling because countries like indonesia, which is one of the largest exporters of palm oil, are using more of that palm oil for their biodiesel programme — for their automotive industry — which means they have less pure palm oil to sell on the world market for food consumption. when you look at 2025, given the threat of things like trade wars, tariffs, protectionism, what does that mean for the price of food? like trade wars, tariffs, protectionism, what does that mean for the price of food? i think agricultural commodities, generally speaking, have quite a lot of influence,

both in terms of world inflation, but also world macro evolutions have an impact on the food. so with donald trump becoming the next president of the usa, he has promised tariffs and potential trade wars with china and the eu, canada and mexico, which would ultimately have a direct impact on how much the usa is allowed to import and export. in terms of food commodities, usa is a massive exporter of corn and soybeans, and also wheat. 0n the other hand, trade wars could potentially damage economic growth, so gdp could get impacted, which could also hurt demand in terms of overall food consumption. and thirdly, another impact that we're seeing from a potential donald trump election is the fact that we think the us dollar could strengthen. a lot of his policies are highly inflationary. a stronger dollar typically would mean lower prices for agricultural commodities because they're denominated in dollars. so you could actually end up seeing

prices of corn, wheat, soybeans all actually fall in dollar terms. so, actually, that sounds like prices overall due to geopolitics could actually be... there's more risk for it to fall rather than rise in 2025. damage economic growth, so gdp could get impacted, which could also hurt demand in terms of overall food consumption. and thirdly, another impact that

we're seeing from a potential donald trump election is the fact that we think the us dollar could strengthen. a lot of his policies are highly inflationary. a stronger dollar typically would mean lower prices for agricultural commodities because they're denominated in dollars. so you could actually end up seeing prices of corn, wheat, soybeans all actually fall in dollar terms. so, actually, that sounds like prices overall due to geopolitics could actually be... there's more risk for it to fall rather than rise in 2025. kona haque, thank you for being with us on the programme. thank you so much. so that's a big picture on state of the global economy. but about the individuals? it's that time of year. so what can we expect

from the world of work in 2025? i've been speaking to the boss of one of the world's biggest recruitment firms, the netherlands—based randstad. it helps about 2 million people every year find a newjob. sander van't noordende, really good to have you on the programme. thank you for being with us. and talk to me about the jobs market right now, because we look around the world and the economies are slowly recovering from the pandemic, some quicker than others. and we can often see that in the jobs market. give me your assessment of where we are right now and what the jobs market looks like. i would say, ben, thejob market is a little bit stuck at this point in time. i mean, thejob openings have come down. the hiring rate is at the same level as ten years ago. the quit rates are back to pre—covid levels and the lay—off rate has also been very low. so i would say it's sort of stuck in where we are. we need a bit more dynamism in the place, so to speak. what does that dynamism look like? what is dynamism in the jobs market? well, that comes from economic growth. if the economy is doing well,

businesses are growing. they start hiring. you know, people see interesting opportunities and you just start...seeing people moving around. so many bosses that we talk to on this programme tell us, though, that they still struggle to get the right people, the right people with the right skills in the right place. that has been something that was exacerbated by the pandemic. but are we still facing a skills shortage in key industries? yeah, talent is scarce. and that is a given for the foreseeable future because it's all about the demographics — in the western markets, at least, it is — but also in asia and japan and china. it's all about demographics. what are we looking for? what are we short of? i would say technology — people working with people, ie, in health care, in social work, in education.

in government in general, there has been a big job growth. those would be the hot areas, i would say. given that firms simply can't get the right staff, does that mean that wages are going up? they're having to pay more and more and more to get the right people? yeah. so wage inflation has been an interesting phenomenon over the past couple of years. it's been quite high. it's quite persistent. this year, in the us, for instance, it's still going to be around 4%. in some western european countries, it's even higher than that. i think there's two factors there. there's the talent scarcity, but there's also, of course, the inflation. and, you know, people demanding to get more for the work they do. and, for business, that means greater cost. can they afford it right now? well, they have to pass that on to their customers, which of course then generates more inflation, which is not good. so the central banks stepping in in the past to increase the rates and cooling that down, i think, has worked.

we'll see how it goes going forward. is it fair to say that wages are still the overwhelming driver of employment, that people are simply seeking the job with the most pay? or are we finally at a point where it's about a bit more of a wholesome thing — that it's about quality of job, work—life balance. it's about accessibility. it's about career progression. what are your clients telling you when they come to you and say, "look, i'm looking for a job, "but these are the factors now that will determine "whether i take that one or that one." right. well, ben, it depends very much on where you are in the job market. if you are in the unskilled labour part of thejob market, you know, a dollar more per hour is a big, big deal. so $16 per hour versus $15 per hour. that makes people move around. if you are making more, or you're a knowledge worker, it's increasingly about what i would call the a, b, c. it's about, what's your ambition? or are you more for balance? or are you looking for connection in the workplace? those elements are really important. of course, pay needs to be competitive always, but it's definitely not the only thing out there. our ability to work for an organisation anywhere in the world is meaning that our, you know, our potentialjobs market is now global. give me your assessment of where

jobs are being created right now. and does that tie in hand—in—hand with the state of that economy? or is it still that the skills shortage really skews that equation? well, in terms of industries, it's, as i said, technology, it is... a lot of it is in government and health care. in terms of geographies, i would say india is definitely a country that's booming these days. it's growing very rapidly. they have a great skill base. there are many companies from europe and the us building their global capability centres there. so in terms of sheer numbers ofjob creation, i would point to india. is that purely based on cost? i would say it is based on capability primarily. right. the base of knowledge and capability in india in terms of technology and business process outsourcing is just unparalleled in the world. yes, it may be more cost—effective, but that's definitely not the only driver. and if someone�*s looking for a job in 2025, what's the best bit of advice you might have for them right now to get thatjob?

insert contract from what we've seen from european leaders, what does optimism mean? it strikes me that optimism mean? it strikes me that optimism is what will determine whether bosses will hire. does that translate directly to recruitment. you're absolutely right. it's all about confidence. i would say go for a job that you're good at and that you enjoy doing, because if you're good at it and you enjoy doing it, you will get better at it and you will get even...you will enjoy it even more. and if you are a recruiter or an organisation trying to source staff — specific skills — how do they go about it this year? skills. technical skills is always important, but what we see also with the emergence of ai is the softer skills getting more important. are you curious about how the world works? how resourceful are you? how good are you at collaborating?

do you get stuff done? that part of the equation becomes increasingly important because the knowledge stuff you can get from technology almost. sander van �*t noordende, really good to have you on the programme this week. thank you for being with us. how good are you at collaborating? do you get stuff done? that part of the equation becomes increasingly important because the knowledge stuff you can get from technology almost. sander van �*t noordende, really good to have you on the programme this week. thank you for being with us. thank you very much, ben. great to be here. that's all for this week. you can keep up—to—date with the latest on the global economy on the bbc news website and on the smartphone app. but that's all from us this week. we'll see you very soon. bye— bye. hello there. i'm sure lots of people will still be travelling over the weekend. the weather won't be quite so kind — the biggest issues are likely to be because of the strength

of the wind. it will be windy for all of us, it'll turn colder, and the showers that are pushing in will turn wintry, as well, by sunday. lots of fast—moving weather coming in from the atlantic — this cloud will bring some rain in from the west overnight. this was the cloud that brought the rain today — that's clearing very quickly — and some clearer skies and quieter weather for a while, but it's a brief respite, because more cloud and rain comes in from the northwest, from that cloud in the atlantic. and the winds will start to pick up by the morning, the first signs of some stronger winds to come. it won't be as cold as it was last night, though, for eastern parts of england — temperatures down as low as 6—7 celsius. windy weather, though, tomorrow, particularly across the northern half of the uk, gusts of 50—60mph — could be close to 80mph in the far north of scotland. and it will be windy everywhere. the rain from overnight not really amounting to very much by morning, pushing down into southern england, followed by some sunshine. lots of showers, though, streaming in through the day in northern ireland, scotland, and perhaps northern england — it's here we've got the strongest

of the winds. and it will get a bit colder for these areas, as well, through the afternoon — temperatures perhaps 7—8 celsius. still making double figures further south, where it's not quite as windy. but it will be turning colderfor all of us — we're drawing in some polar maritime air. west—to—northwesterly winds around the area of low pressure — that's still sitting to the north east of the uk, and feeding in a lot of showers for the second half of the weekend, more widespread showers, too. and more widespread stronger winds — it may well be a windier day for the southern half of the uk for many of us, winds gusting 50—60mph, especially where we see these showers streaming in. and those will be heavy and perhaps with some hail and thunder. some wintriness over the hills, particularly across scotland, where we're seeing frequent showers. should be some sunshine elsewhere outside of those showers, but it'll still be a windy day. it'll going to feel colder, as well, temperatures at sixes and sevens. that cold and windy weather won't last, though, because, as we head towards christmas, we'll find lighter winds, we'll find temperatures climbing. it may well be quite cloudy, but there is some drier, quieter weather on the way.

this is bbc world news america. a car has driven into a crowd at a christmas market in germany — authorities say it's an attack that's killed at least two people. lawmakers vote on another spending bill — as congress tries to avert a looming government shutdown american diplomats have had their first official meeting with the new rulers of syria. welcome to world news america.

we begin with breaking news — a christmas market in germany was turned into a scene of carnage tonight after a car ploughed through crowds, leaving at least two people dead — including a small child — and injuring over 60. this is the scene live there now — emergency services and police are still in attendance — and all hospitals are preparing for a mass casualty event. the suspect is said to be a 50 year old doctor who's a saudi national and who has been in germany since 2006. the incident took place in a market in the centre of the city of magdeburg in east germany. with more, here's frances read. confusion, chaos. there are passers by tending to those injured on the ground. what sounds like children crying. and adults too.